Type

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

Ref. No. H1

Hazard / Threat H1 - Fire or explosion at a gas terminal as well as LPG, LNG, and other gas onshore feedstock pipeline and flammable gas storage sites

Outcome Description Could result in an area of up to 3km around site being affected causing up to 500 fatalities and up to 1500 casualties. Gas terminal event likely to be of short duration once feed lines are isolated; event at a storage site could last for days if the explosion damaged control equipment.

Variation and Further Information A large industrial complex, gas processing site or gas storage site near to a populated (i.e. urban) area. Impact on environment, including persistent/widespread impact on air quality.

Likeli-hood

Impact

Score

Risk High

10

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL1

HL1 - Fire or explosion at a gas Could result in an area of up to 3km around site being terminal or involving a gas pipeline affected causing up to 10 fatalities and up to 100 casualties.

Likely to be applicable only to an LRF which has a coastline. Impact on environment, including persistent/widespread impact on air quality.

Medium 2 3 6

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL25

HL25 - Fire or explosion at a gas terminal as well as LPG, LNG, and other gas onshore feedstock pipeline and flammable gas sites

Could result in an area of up to 3km around site being affected causing up to 500 fatalities and up to 1500 casualties. Depending on the location and size of the release, the fire should be short lived. Explosions would cause primarily crush / cuts and bruises type injuries as well as burns, fires would cause predominantly burn type injuries.

Gas terminal event likely to be of short duration once feed lines are isolated; event at a storage site could last for days if the explosion damaged control equipment. Impact on environment, including persistent/widespread impact on air quality.

High

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H3

H3 - Fire or explosion at an oil refinery

A location close to a populated (i.e. urban) area. Impact Could result in an area of up to 3km around site being on environment, including persistent / widespread affected causing up to 500 fatalities and up to 1500 impact on air quality. casualties. Depending on the location and size of the release, the fire could burn for several days. Explosions would cause primarily crush / cuts and bruises type injuries as well as burns, fires would cause predominantly burn type injuries.

Medium

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL27

HL27 - Fire or explosion at an oil refinery

Localised fire or explosion at an oil refinery affecting an Depending on the location and size of the release, the area up to 3km around the site, with up to 20 casualties, fire could burn for several days. Impact on environment, including persistent/widespread impact on air quality. 10 of them serious. Explosions would cause primarily crush, cuts and bruise type injuries, as well as burns.

Medium 2 3 6

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H4

H4 - Fire or explosion at a fuel distribution site or tank storage of flammable and/or toxic liquids in atmospheric pressure storage tanks

Could result in an area of up to 3km around site being affected causing up to 150 fatalities and up to 2000 casualties. Explosions would cause primarily crush / cuts and bruises type injuries as well as burns, fires would cause predominantly burn type injuries.

A large industrial complex or fuel storage site near to a populated (i.e. urban) area. Impact on environment, including persistent/widespread impact on air quality. Plant of this nature is assumed to be more or less evenly distributed across the country.

High

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL28

HL28 - Localised fire or explosion at a fuel distribution site or tank storage of flammable and/or toxic liquids

Up to 1km around the site, causing up to 15 fatalities and 200 casualties.

Impact on environment, including persistent/widespread impact on air quality. 2 3 6

Medium

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H5

H5 - Fire or explosion at an onshore fuel pipeline

Could result in an area of up to 1 km around site being affected causing up to 100 fatalities and up to 500 casualties. Explosions would cause primarily crush / cuts and bruises type injuries, as well as burns, fires would cause primarily burn type injuries.

A release point close to a populated (i.e. urban) area. Impact on environment, including persistent/widespread impact on air quality. Plant of this nature is assumed to be more or less evenly distributed across the country, although there may be 'clustering' in some coastal and industrial areas.

Medium

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H7

H7 - Explosion at a natural gas pipeline

Area local to site affected causing up to 200 fatalities and up to 200 casualties. Explosions would cause primarily crush / cuts and bruises type injuries, as well as burns, fires would cause primarily burn type injuries.

A release point close to a populated (i.e. urban) area. Impact on environment, including persistent/widespread impact on air quality. Plant of this nature is assumed to be more or less evenly distributed across the country, although there may be 'clustering' in some coastal and industrial areas.

Medium

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL30

HL30 - Localised explosion at a natural gas pipeline

Area local to site affected causing up to 100 fatalities and up to 100 casualties. Explosions would cause primarily crush / cuts and bruises type injuries, as well as burns, fires would cause primarily burn type injuries.

A release point close to a populated (i.e. urban) area. Impact on environment, including persistent/widespread impact on air quality. Plant of this nature is assumed to be more or less evenly distributed across the country, although there may be 'clustering' in some coastal and industrial areas.

Medium

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H8

H8 - Large scale Toxic chemical release Pollution e.g. chlorine, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, refrigerated ammonia, sulphur dioxide(or trioxide) gas.

Could result in an area of up to 10km from scene being affected causing up to 2000 fatalities and up to 10000 casualties. Evacuations may be required in the affected area. Likely impact on the environment and access to the site.

Chlorine release. A large industrial complex or bulk storage of chemicals near to a populated (i.e. urban) area. 2 4 8

High

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H9

H9 - Medium scale Toxic chemical Could result in an area of up to 3km from scene being affected causing up to 50 fatalities and up to 2000 release. casualties. Evacuations may be required in the affected area. Likely impact on the environment and access to the site. HL2 - Large scale Toxic chemical release Could result in an area of up to 3km from scene being affected causing up to 30 fatalities and up to 250 casualties. Evacuations may be required in the affected area. Likely impact on the environment and access to the site.

Chlorine release. Large industrial complex or bulk storage of chemicals near to a populated (i.e. urban) area. There are some sites of this nature within the M25, and there is clustering of such sites in other parts of the country. Plant of this nature is assumed to be more or less evenly distributed across the country, although there may be 'clustering' in some coastal and industrial areas. Impact on environment, including persistent/widespread impact on air quality.

High 2 4 8

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL2

High

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL30

HL30 - Small scale Toxic chemical Could result in an area of up to 1km from scene being affected causing up to 10 fatalities and up to 100 release casualties. Evacuations may be required in the affected area. Likely impact on the environment and access to the site.

Plant of this nature is assumed to be more or less evenly distributed across the country, although there may be 'clustering' in some coastal and industrial areas.

Medium 2 3 6

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H11

H11 - Accidental release of radioactive material from incorrectly handled or disposed of sources.

Assume radioactive material is a medical source from Could result in an area of several kilometers being radiotherapy machine. affected, but most concentration at the point of accidental release, causing up to 5 fatalities and up to 100 contaminated people requiring medical monitoring. Many worried people may present at hospitals. Evacuations may be required in the affected area. Likely impact on the environment and access to the site.

Medium

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H12

H12 - Biological substance release Up to 10 fatalities and serious injuries or offsite impact from Control measure failure (e.g. requiring up to 1000 hospital admissions dangerous pathogen release from containment laboratory)

Assume release in an urban area. Biological agent (mainly HG3 & 4 human & animal pathogens) release from containment (e.g. infection of laboratory worker or animal) example SARS release from lab in China resulted in 2 deaths & several hundred people quarantined. This type of release could be the source of an outbreak that leads to H22-H26 risks.

High

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H46

H46 - Biological substance release during an unrelated work activity or industrial process (e.g. Legionella release from building environmental control systems)

Specifically related to Legionella release from an industrial process example of Barrow 2002 (7 fatalities, - 500 hospitalisations); Inadvertent Legionella contaminant of cooling tower, hot & cold water system, evaporative condenser.

Specifically related to Legionella release during an unrelated work activity or industrial process. Inadvertent Legionella contaminant of wet cooling systems such as cooling towers and evaporative condensers, and air conditioning systems such as humidifiers and industrial air scrubbers.

High

15

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H14(a)

H14(a) - Major food chain contamination arising from incidents arising from production processes e.g. adulteration of chilli powder with Sudan dye.

Food production / marketing implications depending on scale and area affected e.g. major shellfisheries, dairy, livestock production areas. Potential direct animal and consumer health effects including possible fatalities and casualties. Consumer confidence affected leading to lost markets or panic buying .Incidents arising from production processes e.g. adulteration of chilli powder with Sudan dye.Industrial accident (chemical, microbiological, nuclear) affecting food production areas e.g. Chernobyl, Sea Empress oil spill, Foot and Mouth Disease.Contamination of animal feed e.g. dioxins, BSE.

An incident similar to that which occurred in Belgium in which animal feed is contaminated with Dioxins, resulting in contamination of animals and animal products.

High

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H14(b)

H14(b) - Major food chain contamination arising from industrial accident affecting food production areas e.g. Chernobyl, Sea Empress oil spill, Foot and Mouth Disease.

Food production / marketing implications depending on scale and area affected e.g. major shellfisheries, dairy, livestock production areas. Potential direct animal and consumer health effects including possible fatalities and casualties. Consumer confidence affected leading to lost markets or panic buying .Incidents arising from production processes e.g. adulteration of chilli powder with Sudan dye.Industrial accident (chemical, microbiological, nuclear) affecting food production areas e.g. Chernobyl, Sea Empress oil spill, Foot and Mouth Disease.Contamination of animal feed e.g. dioxins, BSE.

An incident similar to that which occurred in Belgium in which animal feed is contaminated with Dioxins, resulting in contamination of animals and animal products.

High

12

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H14(c)

H14(c) - Major contamination of food chain arising from contamination of animal feed e.g. dioxins, BSE.

Food production / marketing implications depending on scale and area affected e.g. major shellfisheries, dairy, livestock production areas. Potential direct animal and consumer health effects including possible fatalities and casualties. Consumer confidence affected leading to lost markets or panic buying .Incidents arising from production processes e.g. adulteration of chilli powder with Sudan dye.Industrial accident (chemical, microbiological, nuclear) affecting food production areas e.g. Chernobyl, Sea Empress oil spill, Foot and Mouth Disease.Contamination of animal feed e.g. dioxins, BSE.

An incident similar to that which occurred in Belgium in which animal feed is contaminated with Dioxins, resulting in contamination of animals and animal products.

High

12

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

H15

H15 - Maritime Pollution Spillage of up to 100,000 tonnes of crude oil into the sea polluting up to 200km of coastline.

Potentially significant damage to amenity value, i.e. A large fully laden oil super tanker sinks in the approach tourism, agriculture / commerce and aquatic ecosystem. to a UK port, e.g. the Thames estuary, fully laden and with strong north-easterly winds and with the tide flowing up the Thames estuary. Assume no loss of access to the LNG terminal on the Isle of Grain.

High

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL4

HL4 - Major pollution of controlled waters/water courses

Pollution incident impacting upon controlled waters and water courses, e.g. could be caused by chemical spillage or release of untreated sewage) leading to persistent and / or extensive effect on water quality, major damage to aquatic ecosystems, closure of potable abstraction points, major impact on amenity (i.e. tourism) value, serious impact on human health. V

High

15

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL5

HL5 - Major land contamination incident

Pollution incident (e.g. chemical spillage/illegal dumping of hazardous waste) leading to persistent and/or extensive effect on land quality, major damage to terrestrial ecosystems, property, amenity (i.e. tourism) value and major damage to agriculture / commerce, serious impact on human health.

High

15

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL6

HL6 - Major air quality incident THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE

Pollution incident (e.g. uncontrolled emission form an industrial facility or uncontrolled release of landfill gas) leading to persistent and/or extensive effect on air quality, major damage to local ecosystems, major effect on amenity (i.e. tourism) value and serious impact on human health.

High

15

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL7

HL7 - Industrial explosions and major fires

Plant of this nature is assumed to be more or less Could result in an area of up to 1km around site being affected causing up to 20 casualties. Explosions would evenly distributed across the country. cause primarily crush / cuts and bruises type injuries as well as burns, fires would cause predominantly burn type injuries. NOT IN LRAG 2007

High 4 3 12

Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution Industrial Accident and Environmental Pollution

HL32

HL32 - Localised maritime pollution Release of 10,000 tonnes of oil into the sea, polluting up to 100km of coastline. HL33 - Large Scale Fire Forest/Mountain/Arson Roads and access routes impassable for a time. Emergency access into/out of large populated areas difficult or impossible; severe congestion over wide geographical area. Loss of power and other essential services over wide geographical area. Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or rendered homeless. Damage to residential & commercial property. Heavy demand on emergency services. May cause localised health hazards (respiratory problems) due to large volumes of smoke.

High 2 4 8 Medium

HL33

10

Transport Accidents

H42

H42 - Rapid accidental sinking of a 500 fatalities and 1000 casualties, potentially with blockage of major sea-lane or port. The risk is based on passenger vessel in, or close to an accident to a large passenger ship off the UK coast. UK waters Casualty figures relate to the largest cruise ships now carrying >5000 people (passengers & crew)

A passenger liner such as the QMII sinks rapidly close in to shore but with strong winds and high seas. The vessel sinks due to a major explosion in the engine room. Only applicable to LRFs with a coastline.

High

Transport Accidents

HL34

HL34 - Fire, flooding, stranding or collision involving a passenger vessel in or close to UK waters leading to the ship's evacuation or partial evacuation at sea

Causing up to 250 fatalities and 500 casualties. The risk is based on an accident to a medium-sized passenger ship such as a ferry. Casualty figures relate to large ferries carrying c.2000 people (passengers & crew).

The risk is based on an accident to a medium-sized passenger ship such as a ferry. Casualty figures relate to large ferries carrying c.2000 people (passengers & crew). Only applicable to LRFs with a coastline. 1 3 3

Medium

Transport Accidents

HL8

HL8 - Fire, flooding, stranding or collision involving a passenger vessel in or close to UK waters or on inland waterways, leading to the ship's evacuation

Causing up to 50 fatalities and up to 300 casualties. The The risk is based on an accident to a smaller passenger risk is based on an accident to a smaller passenger vessel on the UK coast or inland waterways. Only vessel on the UK coast or inland waterways. applicable to those LRFs with a coastline or significant inland waterways.

Medium

Transport Accidents

HL37

HL37 - Release of significant quantities of hazardous chemicals / materials as a result of major shipping accident

Up to 50 fatalities and up to 250 casualties. Significant environmental / ecological damage. The extent of the impact would depend on substance involved, quantity, nature and location of accident.

Only applicable to those LRFs with a coastline or significant inland waterways. The extent of the impact would depend on substance involved, quantity, nature and location of accident.

High

Transport Accidents

HL14

HL14 - Local accident involving transport of fuel/explosives

Causing up to 30 fatalities and up to 20 casualties within vicinity of accident/explosion. Area would require evacuating up to 1km radius depending on substances involved. Potential release of up to 30 tonnes of liquid fuel into local environment, watercourses etc. Large quantities of fire fighting media (foam) would impact on environment. Roads and access routes impassable for a time. Emergency access into/out of large populated areas difficult or impossible. Collision of two commercial airliners - death of all passengers and crew on aircraft (600 fatalities), 300 casualties on the ground. No significant damage to key infrastructure.

Medium

Transport Accidents

H16

H16 - Aviation accident over urban Causing up to 800 fatalities and up to 300 casualties. The worst case scenario could involve either two aircraft area. and an urban environment or one of the new super jumbo jets. Injuries will range from serious burns to fractures and will have long term medical requirements. There is also a likely to be loss of amenities including housing or retail or industrial facilities and subsequent impact on the economy.

Medium

Transport Accidents

HL9

HL9 - Aviation accident over other Causing up to 50fatalities and up to 250 casualties. areas.

Accident involving one commercial aircraft, probably on take off or landing.

Medium 1 3 3

Transport Accidents

HL10

HL10 - Local accident on motorway and major trunk roads.

Multiple vehicular incident causing up to 10 fatalities and up to 20 casualties. Will result in closure of roads and disruption to the road network.

Medium 4 2 8

Transport Accidents

HL11

HL11 - Railway Incident.

Causing up to 30 fatalities and up to 100 casualties (fractures, internal injuries, burns less likely) including possible fatalities. Environmental pollution dependant on loads carried on goods trains. Road access will be difficult or impossible.

Medium

Transport Accidents

HL12

HL12 - Local accident involving Causing up to 50 fatalities and up to 500 casualties transport of hazardous chemicals. including indirect contamination, if substance covers a wide area. Evacuations may be required from within the affected area. Likely impact on the environment and access to the site may be affected.

Hazardous chemical traffic is not thought to vary significantly at local levels, so likelihood will be similar throughout. However, a high density of hazardous chemical infrastructure in area may affect likelihood scores.

Very High

16

Transport Accidents

HL13

HL13 - Maritime accident or deliberate blockage resulting in blockage of access to key port, estuary, maritime route for more than one month

Causing possible fatalities / injuries minor. Loss of port is likely to have an initial wider impact, but will quickly reduce as shippers seek alternative ports or methods of shipping. Economic impact on local dependent businesses.

High

12

Severe Weather

H17

H17 - Storms & Gales

Storm force winds affecting most of the county for at least 6 hours. Most inland, lowland areas experience mean speeds in excess of 55 mph with gusts in excess of 85 mph. Consequent damage to infrastructure (eg telecommunications, power, transport).

High

Severe Weather

H18

H18 - Low temperatures and heavy snow

Snow lying over most of the country for at least one week. Most lowland areas experience some snow falls in excess of 30cm, some drifts in excess of 1m, and in period of at least / consecutive days with daily mean temperatures below -3C. Consequent damage to infrastructure (eg telecommunications, power, transport).

After an initial large fall of snow, there is further snow fall on and off for at least 7 days. Most lowland areas experience some falls in excess of 10 cm, some drifts in excess of 50cm, and a period of at least 7 consecutive days with daily mean temperatures below -3C.

High

12

Severe Weather

H48

H48 - Heat Wave

Daily maximum temperatures above 32C and minimum Subsequent impact on electricity generation cooling temperatures above 15C over most of the area for at systems and also upon distribution and transmission least 5 consecutive days and nights transformers that would be highly loaded in urban areas due to air-conditioning load in large buildings. N.B. currently in the London area the summer peak demand is higher than the winter demand due to building airconditioning systems.

Medium

Severe Weather

H19

H19 - Flooding: Major Coastal/tidal Many coastal regions and tidal reaches of rivers affected. Major sea surge, tides, gale force winds and potentially heavy rainfall. Excessive tide levels and many coastal and/or estuary defences overtopped or failing. Drains back-up. Inundation from breaches in defences would be mostly unpredictable, rapid and dynamic with minimal or no warning. The depth and flow velocity would be uncertain. Inundation from overtopping of defences would allow as little as 1 hour to evaluate. Widespread structural damage. Flooding of up to 300,000 properties for up to 14 days. Up to 150 fatalities, 2000 casualties and up to 2000 missing persons. Up to 0.4m people (including tourists) in coastal villages and towns evacuated from flooded sites. People stranded over a large area and up to 40,000 people in need of rescue. Up to 40,000 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months. (these figures are unconfirmed until the completion of reviews post the summer events)

Assumes: Storm tide forecasting service shows risk of overtopping (up to 8hrs lead time). Rescue can only be by boat, helicopter or highclearance vehicles. Emergency services affected if located in the flood zone. Evacuation warnings given to emergency services (as little as 1 hour) Multiple failure of flood defence systems (breaches). Damage or failure (at several sites) of telecommunications, power stations, road and rail links. There are hospitals, schools, shops and industrial/ commercial premises in the flooded area (& possibly rest centres). Properties includes occupied mobile homes and caravans sites in low-lying coastal zones (summer tourists). Consequence management will not be achievable with in a regional response capability For evacuation and emergency sheltering and accommodation, the following assumptions are made: 60% leave the area and stay with relatives/friends or holiday-makers return home. 30% use available hotels in safe areas [may need tourists to vacate rooms for local residents]. 10% need assisted sheltering.

Very High

15

Severe Weather

H21

H21 - Flooding: Major fluvial

A single massive fluvial event or multiple concurrent regional events following a sustained period of heavy rainfall extending over two weeks (perhaps combined with snow melt). The event would include major fluvial flooding affecting a large, single urban area. Closure of primary transport routes. Some infrastructure collapse. Sediment movement and contamination of water supplies. Loss of essential services (gas, electricity & telecoms) to 0.2m homes for up to 14 days. Up to 5000 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12mths. Significant economic damage. Urban area dimension: Flooding of up to 40,000 properties for up to 7 days. Up to 50 fatalities and 500 casualties. Up to 100,000 people evacuated. Up to 2,000 people in need of rescue. Rural area dimension: Flooding of up to 10,000 properties for up to 2 days. Up to 20 fatalities and 300 casualties. Up to 50,000 people in rural villages and towns evacuated. People stranded over a large area and up to 2,500 in need of rescue. (these figures are unconfirmed until the completion of reviews post the summer events)

Assumes: 2 days of severe flood warnings issued. Hazard is not evenly distributed across the UK. Rescue can only be by boat, helicopter or highclearance vehicles. Emergency services affected if located in the flood zone. Evacuation warnings given to Emergency Services (up to 12 hours lead time) Multiple failure of flood defence systems (breaches). Damage or failure (at several sites) of telecommunications, power stations, hospitals, schools, shops and industrial/ commercial premises in the flooded area (& possibly rest centres). Properties includes occupied mobile homes and caravans sites in the floodplain (summer tourists). Road and rail links. Consequence management will not be achievable with in a regional response capability. For evacuation and emergency sheltering and accommodation, the following assumptions are made: 60% leave the area and stay with relatives/friends or holiday-makers return home. 30% use available hotels in safe areas [may need tourists to vacate rooms for local residents]. 10% need assisted sheltering.

Very High

12

Severe Weather

HL16

HL16 - Flooding Major local coastal/tidal

Sea surge, spring tides, gale force winds, heavy rainfall affecting more than on Region, some defences overtopped or failing at multiple locations. Flooding of more than 1000 and less than 10000 properties. Multiagency response invoked, possible large scale evacuation required.Suddenness of failure of defences would not be possible to predict, tidal inundation would be rapid and wave impact would cause structural damage to properties. Impact on infrastructure includes disruption of traffic for 1-3days, impact on access to agricultural land and impact to infrastructure e.g. sewage treatment works flooded.

The flooding event would have a regional impact, translating into loss of lives, severe economic damage and need between 6 and 18 months recovery before business as usual conditions are restored. Significant mutual aid would be deployed from inland counties. Assumes: See H19 (Many of the assumptions are the same for a major regional flood as they would be for a major national flood. Consequence Management will not be achievable with in a regional response capability)

Very High

12

Severe Weather

HL17

HL17 - Flooding Local coastal/tidal Sea surge, high tides and/or gale force winds affecting the coastline and one Region, a defence system overtopped or failing at a single location. Localised impact with infrastructure affected and up to 1000 properties flooded for up to 14 days. Up to 10 fatalities, 150 casualties and up to 100 missing persons. Up to 20,000 people (including tourists) in coastal villages and towns evacuated from flooded sites. People stranded over a large area and up to 2,000 people in need of rescue. Up to 3,000 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months. Multi-agency response invoked with some local evacuation and cordoning off of affected areas. Tidal inundation would be rapid and wave impact would cause structural damage to properties. Impact on infrastructure includes: localised disruption for up to 7 days, salt damage, road damage, debris and contaminated local water supplies and pollutants from affected businesses. Rural impacts include: livestock carcasses, waterborne disease. Some properties destroyed and others uninhabitable for 12 months. HL19 - Significant, local fluvial flooding (rivers and streams). A sustained period of heavy rainfall extending over two weeks, perhaps combined with snow melt, resulting iflash flooding and steadily rising river levels within a region. Localised floodiof 100 to 1,000 properties for 2-7 days. casualties. Up to 5 fatalities and 50 casualties. Up to 5,000 people evacuated. Up to 200 people stranded over a large area and in need of rescue. There would be some impact on minor roads and some A roads and truck roads impassable for a time. Some main rail lines may need to be closed for a week (for repairs etc). Most water ways would be closed to traffic because of strong currents and high water levels. Impact on infrastructure includes, water damage, road and bridge damage. Sediment movement and contamination of local water supplies. Localised loss of essential services (gas, electricity & telecoms) to 5,000 for up to 14 days. Up to 250 people needing assistance with sheltering for up to 12 months. Substantial disruption within a county for 7-14 days. Significant debris and pollutants clear-up needed.

The flooding event would have a local impact, translating into some loss of lives, some economic damage and need between up to 12 months recovery before business as usual conditions are restored. Mutual aid will be needed from elsewhere within and the Region and possibly from neighbouring Regions. Assumes: See H19 (Many of the assumptions are the same for a significant local flood as they would be for a major national flood.) However, the impact may be specific to one area rather than several sites. Consequence management will be achievable within a regional level response capability.

Very High

16

Severe Weather

HL19

The flooding event would have a sub regional impact, and is a real threat to lives. Localised economic damage and need between 6 and 18months recovery before business as usual conditions are restored. The depth and velocity of water flows will vary Significant mutual aid would be deployed from neighbouring counties but the response effort could be contained within a region. Assumes: See H21 (Many of the assumptions are the same for a major regional fluvial flood as they would be for a major national incident. Consequence management will not be achievable within a regional response capability) 4 3 12

High

Severe Weather

HL20

HL20 Flooding Local Fluvial (flash Flooding)

Heavy localised rainfall in steep valley catchments leading to extremely hazardous flash flooding (e.g. high velocities and depths). Likely that no flood defences in place. Probably no flood warning service available / or suddenness of event means timely flood warnings are not possible. Flooding of up to 200 properties. (NB: the outcome is essentially the same as H44 dam or reservoir failure).

Assumes: Very little time to evacuate (as little as 15 minutes). Flooding lasts less than 24 hours. Emergency services not pre-warned Extent of downstream effect could reach 30-50km. Significant local infrastructure damage - gas, electricity supplies, telecommunications, road and rail links.

Very High

16

Structural Incident

HL21

HL21 - Land movement (tremors and landslides)

Roads and access routes impassable for a time. Emergency access into/out of large populated areas difficult or impossible; severe congestion over wide geographical area. Loss of power and other essential services over wide geographical area. Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or missing either in landslide itself and/or in collapsed structures. Up to 5 fatalities depending on the size and location of land movement.

Such incidents are rare within the UK with some areas being more prone to landslides than others. Geography and climatic conditions will determine likelihood.

Medium

Structural Incident

HL22

HL22 - Building collapse

Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or missing. Localised loss of power and other essential services. Local access routes affected due to road closures. Up to 5 fatalities depending on the size and construction of building, and occupation rates.

A number of such incidents annually within the UK. Some areas will be more at risk than others due to age of local building stock. 1 3 3

Low

Structural Incident

HL23

HL23 - Bridge Collapse

Roads, access routes and transport infrastructure impassable for considerable length of time. Severe congestion over wide geographical area. Emergency access into/out of large populated areas severely restricted. Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or missing.

Such incidents are rare within the UK.

Medium

Structural Incident

H44

H44 - Major reservoir dam failure caused by internal erosion or overtopping

Assumes: Collapse without warning resulting in almost No time to evacuate. instantaneous flooding. Significant movement of debris Highly dynamic flood wave causing extensive damage (including vehicles) and sediment. Complete destruction Flooding lasts less than 24 hours (subways of some residential and commercial properties and basements etc. could remain flooded for longer). serious damage of up to 500 properties. Several Emergency services not pre-warned thousand other properties could be flooded. Up to 200 Extent of downstream effect could reach 50-60km. fatalities. Up to 1000 casualties. Up to 50 missing Significant damage to gas, electricity supplies, persons and people stranded. Hazardous recovery telecommunications, road and rail links. amongst collapsed infrastructure and debris. Water supply to homes and business is lost. Up to 200 people need temporary accommodation for 2-18 months.

High

Structural Incident

DP2

DP2 - Explosive Ordinance Unexploded Bombs

Discovery of an unexploded bomb or ordnance threatening major damage to commercial or residential buildings leading to evacuation of town centre or up to 100+ homes

Medium 3 2 6

Human Health

H22

H22 - Influenza type disease (epidemic)

A serious epidemic of much greater severity than the usual seasonal flu. Weekly GP consultations for new episodes of flu-like illness likely to exceed 400 per 100,000 of population at the peak (compared with a peak of around 200 per 100,00 population per week in an average year)

Very High

12

Human Health

H23

H23 - Influenza type disease (pandemic)

Each pandemic is different and the nature of the virus and its impacts cannot be known in advance. Previous pandemics have led to different outcomes. Based on understanding of previous pandemics, a pandemic is likely to occur in one or more waves, possibly weeks or months apart. Each wave may last around 15 weeks. Up to half the population could be affected. High number of cases could overwhelm health and other critical services, and adversely affect business and the economy. The advice is business as usual wherever practicable and stay at home and phone the national flu line if you feel unwell. All ages may be affected, but until the virus emerges we cannot know which groups will be most at risk.

Clinical attack rate of 25 to 50% spread over one or more waves with case fatality of up to 2.5%. This means, at the upper end of assumptions, up to some 750,000 excess deaths in the UK across the whole period of the pandemic and over 10,000 healthcare contacts per 100,000 population per week at peak. Probable peak in weeks 6 to 8 following first case, with 22% of total cases occurring at this time. 4 4 16

Very High

Human Health

H24(a)

H24(a) - Severe Acute Respiratory Based on US figures, outbreak will cause between 250- SARS outbreak 2000 casualties. Syndrome (SARS) 3 2 6

Medium

Human Health

H24(b)

H24(b) - West Nile Virus

Causing up to 9,000 hospitalisations with approximately 200 deaths.

Medium 3 2 6 Medium 4 2 8

Human Health

HL24(a)

HL24(a) - Meningococcal Disease Localised outbreak of a disease which could cause up to 10 fatalities and up to 50 casualties, with no variation in likelihood between localities.

Human Health

HL24(b)

HL24(b) - Legionnaires Disease

Localised outbreak of a disease which could cause up to 10 fatalities and up to 50 casualties, with no variation in likelihood between localities. Slaughter of up to 2 million affected and exposed livestock plus the possibility of a significant number of animals culled for welfare reasons. Outbreak of foot & mouth disease starting in upland, extensively farmed area taking into account changes to policy and current livestock movement data.

Medium 4 2 8

Animal Health

H25

H25 - Non-zoonotic notifiable animal disease transmitted within a species, e.g. Foot and Mouth Disease, Classical Swine Fever, Blue Tongue and Newcastle disease

Medium

Animal Health

H26

H26 - Zoonotic notifiable animal diseases. Can be transmitted between animal species / humans (e.g. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, rabies, West Nile Virus)

Culling of up to 120 million poultry (HPAI) or euthanasia of up to 20 companion animals (plus the possibility of wildlife being affected (Rabies). For West Nile Virus spread by viable vectors in the UK the slaughter of 201000 horses is a possibility

Medium

Civil Protest / Public Disorder

HL42

HL42 - Emergency services and other workers providing a service critical to the preservation of life (eg doctors & nurses): Loss of cover due to industrial action.

A number of three day strikes with significant support over a two month period affecting a single emergency service.

Likelihood and impact will vary between, and geographically within, emergency services. 4 2 8

Civil Protest / Public Disorder

H31

H31 - Significant or perceived significant constraint on the supply of fuel e.g. industrial action by contract drivers for fuel.

Filling stations, depending on their locations, would start None to run dry between 24 - 48 hours. Panic buying would exacerbate the situation. Replenishment of sites would take between 3 - 10 days depending on location.

Medium

Civil Protest / Public Disorder

H28

H28 - Large Scale public protest e.g. Political

Events Likely to involve 100s of highly motivated protestors on site including a hardcore of 25+ requiring a local / regionally coordinated Police response

Medium 2 3 6

Civil Protest / Public Disorder

H29

H29 - Targeted disruptive protest, e.g. Fuel Protest

Nationally co-ordinated protest that could generate shortages of essential supplies, and lasts for up to 1 week. Up to 10,000 British nationals deciding to return to UK to a single region within a 4-6 week period following serious regional conflict, a sustained terrorist campaign against UK and other Western nationals, or an uncontrolled outbreak of pandemic flu and seeking support services in the Dyfed Powys area for a period of up to 1 month.

Medium 4 2 8

International Events

HL43

HL43 - Influx of UK residents into the Dyfed Powys LRF area

High

12

Business Failure

H39

H39 - Failure of water infrastructure or accidental contamination with a non-toxic contaminant.

Loss of or non-availability for drinking, of the piped water Domestic, industrial, commercial and agricultural supply, for up to 50,000 people, for more than 24 hours premises without piped water. Lack of water for fire and up to 3 days. fighting. Water Companies required to provide at least 10 litres per person per day until supply restored. However, could lead to suspension of services at hospitals, schools, and businesses etc which do not maintain their own on-site water storage.

High

12

Business Failure

H40

H40 - No notice loss of significant telecommunications infrastructure in a localised such as a fire, flood or gas incident

Loss of telecommunications for up to 100,000 people for Building damage to a large urban telecoms facility. up to 72 hours. Possible impact on emergency services including disruption to proposed Emergency Services Control Centres.

Medium

10

Business Failure

H41

H41 - Technical failure of electricity network (Blackstart)

Partial or total blackout for up to 3 days. Destabilisation of the National Grid. Possible loss of life support machines, civil unrest, no alarms, street lighting etc. Back up generators available for limited time in some instances.

Occurs in winter and blackout lasts for up to 3 days. Isolated rural areas reconnected within a few hours. Power Islands created over the first day. Most of the country reconnected within three days, London late on in the process. Peak demand not able to be met after three days.

High

Business Failure

H43

H43 - Telecommunication infrastructure Human error

Widespread loss of telecommunications (including public land line and mobile networks) at a regional level for up to 5 days. Total shutdown of electricity supply over whole of Wales, occurring during working week and lasting for 24 hours.

Assume emergency services communication systems are also affected. 3 3 9

High

Business Failure

H45

H45 - Technical failure of electricity network

High 3 3 9 High

Business Failure

H49

H49 - Loss of drinking water supplies due a major accident affecting infrastructure.

Loss of or non-availability for drinking, of the piped water Domestic, industrial, commercial and agricultural supply, for a population of up to 200,000 for more than premises without piped water. Lack of water for fire 24 hours and up to one week.. fighting. Water Companies required to provide at least 10 litres per person per day until supply restored; requires a multi-agency response due to prolonged nature of outage and logistics. Could lead to suspension of services at hospitals, schools, and businesses etc which do not maintain their own on-site water storage. Food industries within the impacted zone may close.

12