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Marico
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA OPM (%) PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
1QFY11 787.4 105.6 13.4 73.7 % yoy 33.2 18.5 (148bp) 15.3 Angel Est 909.2 120.0 13.2 78.4 % Diff 15.3 4.3 (127bp) 8.4
`167 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Marico posted a strong performance for the quarter. Overall volume growth for the quarter stood at ~33.2%, of which organic growth stood at ~20% yoy and inorganic growth due to the recently acquired entity International Consumer Products (ICP) in Vietnam came in at ~19%. Earnings for the quarter grew strongly by 15.3% yoy, despite significant margin contraction. We recommend Neutral on the stock. Key highlights during the quarter: Volume growth in the consumer products business in India stood at ~15% yoy, with Parachute reporting ~10% yoy volume growth and Saffola growing by ~15% yoy. The hair oil category with the launch of new variants, such as Parachute Advanced Ayurvedic hot oil, Parachute Advanced Ayurvedic cooling oil and Parachute Advanced Ayurvedic hair oil, performed well and gained market share. International business grew by 26% yoy, led by the recent acquisition of 85% equity in ICP in Vietnam in February 2011. The company has also started to show increased focus on rural sales. Outlook and valuation: Maricos volume growth in its key product categories has been impressive despite the price hikes taken. We have factored in ~18% CAGR over FY201113E in its focus brands and expect the international business to grow strongly at a ~30% CAGR over FY201113E, with the recent acquisition in Vietnam contributing ~5% to the top line in FY2012E and FY2013E. At the CMP of `167, the stock is trading at 25.x FY2013E. We believe the stock is fairly priced and, hence, we recommend Neutral on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 62.9 6.7 26.3 4.1
3m (5.2)
1yr 2.0
3yr 29.1
Key Financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit (Adj) % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 2,661 11.4 241.5 18.5 14.1 3.9 42.4 15.5 43.6 32.5 4.1 28.2
FY2011 3,128 17.6 237.5 (1.6) 13.1 3.9 43.1 11.2 36.5 24.0 3.4 26.3
FY2012E 3,643 16.5 325.6 37.1 14.2 5.3 31.4 8.4 31.5 25.4 3.0 20.4
FY2013E 4,185 14.9 406.2 24.7 14.6 6.6 25.2 6.6 29.5 28.1 2.6 16.9
Sreekanth P.V.S
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6841
sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com
% chg 33 47 31 9 19 35 18 38 40 108 18 18 30
FY2011 3,128 1,618 52 230 7 346 11 524 17 2,719 410 13 39 71 28 328 49 376 12 85 23 5
FY2010 2,661 1,262 47 190 7 351 13 483 18 2,286 375 14 26 60 18 308 (10) 298 11 64 22 2 232 9 61 4 241
% chg 17.6 28.2 21.2 (1.5) 8.6 18.9 9.2 53.1 17.9 52.6 6.5 26.4 32.1
15
286 9 61
23.6
15 15
5 238
22.6 (1.6)
600 400 200 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Top-line (LHS)
(%)
8 6 4 2 -
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
(yoy %)
( %)
(` cr)
(%)
30.0 20.0 10.0 13.8 13.7 14.8 14.1 13.4 12.7 12.2 10.5 11.9
(100.0)
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
PAT (LHS)
OPM
Gross margin
1Q12
(120.0)
Investment arguments
Impressive volume growth across categories /strong pricing power: We expect Marico to post healthy volume in its core brands in FY2012E. The company has not witnessed significant slowdown in volume growth despite steep price hikes. Over the past few months, rawmaterial prices have been softening; so, we do not expect any steep price hikes further. Although margins will not improve significantly due to the softening of raw-material prices, but we believe they are likely to stabilise going forward. International business gaining momentum: International business now comprises ~23% to the companys top line. Marico maintains its leadership position in different categories in different regions. The recently acquired ICP in Vietnam is expected to contribute ~ 5% to the companys top line. We believe the international business will grow at a ~31% CAGR over FY201113E.
FY2011 2,490 589 100 422 415 718 245 638 3,128
FY2012E 3,043 602 110 506 478 1,060 287 601 3,643
FY2013E 3,502 656 120 607 549 1,244 326 683 4,185
FY11-13E 18.6 5.5 9.5 20.0 15.0 31.6 15.3 3.4 15.7
150 100 50 -
Dec-05
Dec-07
Aug-06
Aug-08
Dec-09
Aug-10
Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-11
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) Profit before tax Depreciation Change in Working Capital Interest / Dividend (Net) Direct taxes paid Others Cash Flow from Oper. (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments Cash Flow from Invest. Issue of Equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) Interest / Dividend (Net) Cash Flow from Fin. Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E 201 31 (89) 28 36 19 153 (155) 0 (155) 0 107 45 28 35 32 43 75 230 36 (75) 30 41 2 182 (95) (12) (107) 0 16 47 30 (60) 15 75 90 298 60 (135) 15 64 39 212 (149) (71) (219) 18 72 47 15 28 21 90 111 376 71 (111) 23 85 49 323 (497) (9) (506) 29 326 47 23 284 102 111 213 436 79 (92) 25 94 47 401 (101) (19) (120) 0 (272) 47 25 (344) (63) 213 150 530 83 (92) 11 117 17 432 (86) (21) (108) 0 (45) 60 11 (117) 208 150 358
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Returns (%) RoCE Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Net working capital (days) 5.0 50 17 49 30 4.9 52 17 42 41 4.6 61 21 46 51 3.5 70 22 48 57 3.6 65 23 52 55 4.6 66 24 53 55 38.6 54.2 60.7 35.7 49.6 53.0 32.5 43.0 43.6 24.0 37.0 36.5 25.4 43.0 31.5 28.1 48.2 29.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 0.7 5.2 3.3 3.3 3.9 0.7 7.4 4.0 3.9 4.9 0.7 10.7 3.9 3.9 5.8 0.7 14.9 5.3 5.3 6.8 0.8 19.7 6.6 6.6 8.0 1.1 25.1 66.4 54.9 32.2 0.4 5.7 42.7 15.6 50.2 42.3 22.4 0.4 4.5 34.6 12.7 42.4 33.6 15.5 0.4 4.1 28.2 9.5 43.1 28.6 11.2 0.4 3.4 26.3 6.3 31.4 24.7 8.4 0.5 3.0 20.4 6.1 25.2 20.9 6.6 0.7 2.6 16.9 5.1 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Marico No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11