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The Bass Model was first published in 1963 by Professor Frank M. Bass
as a section of another paper.1 The section entitled "An Imitation
Model" provides a brief, but complete, mathematical derivation of the
model from basic assumptions concerning market size and the
behavior of innovators and imitators. The paper did not provide
empirical evidence in support of the model.
The classic Bass Model paper was published in 1969.2 It expanded the
theory and provided empirical support. The paper became one of the
most widely cited paper in marketing science. It was named by
INFORMS as one of the Ten Most Influential Papers published in the
50-year history of it flagship journal Management Science.
In both the 1963 and the 1969 papers, Professor Bass credited Peter
Frevert (then a Purdue student, now retired from University of Kansas)
with many of the ideas that led to the theory. As Professor Bass told
the story, Peter came to his office one day to ask how one would
express mathematically the idea of imitators and innovators. Professor
Bass wrote out a precursor of the differential equation
.
The Bass Model is the most widely applied new-product diffusion
model. It has been tested in many industries and with many new
products (including services) and technologies.
The Bass Model assumes that sales of a new product are primarily
driven by word-of-mouth from satisfied customers. At the launch of a
new product, mostly innovators purchase it. Early owners who like the
new product influence others to adopt it. Those who purchase primarily
because of the influence of owners are called imitators.
The Bass Math page has the complete mathematical derivation of the
Bass Model from basic principles.