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Market Profile
Common shares outstanding Management ownership Share price (5 day weighted average)
Market capitalization Convertible debentures Senior unsecured notes Net bank debt Enterprise value
500,000 shares
Oil and gas resource plays, conventional heavy oil, in-situ bitumen extraction and entrepreneurial ideas such as natural gas storage to fuel growth and diversify our funds flow
Solid performing conventional shallow gas assets which ground our funds flow and provide capital for growth
= Shareholder Value
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Conventional Heavy Oil Deep Basin Oil and Liquids-Rich Gas Wilrich, Montney, Cardium Viking and Colorado Shallow Shale Gas NE Alberta In-Situ Bitumen Extraction Warwick Gas Storage
Actual & Deemed Production (June 2011) Natural Gas (92.6%) NGLs and Oil (7.4%) Gas over Bitumen Deemed Production(1) P+P Reserves(2) Reserve to Production Ratio (P+P) (RLI) Contingent Resource - Elmworth Montney(2) Contingent Resource Panny Bitumen(3)
30,400 Boe/d 141 MMcf/d 1,934 bbl/d 30 MMcf/d 488 Bcfe 8.9 Years 145 Bcfe 108 MMbbl
(1) Cash Flow = 0.5 x [(deemed production volume x 0.80) x (ARP - $0.3791/GJ)]; (2) As evaluated by McDaniel and GLJ at year end 2010 (3) As evaluated by McDaniel at May 2011
East Central and Northeast Alberta Cretaceous and Devonian sweet shallow gas 75% of production base Base declines < 20% Multiple stacked zones and play types 1,000+ uphole recompletions awaiting depletion of producing zones
Belly River
Viking
Low cost production and reserves adds (<$10,000/BOE/d; <$1.00/Mcf) Typically ~150 recompletions per year Historical drilling success > 90% Seismic definition and step out of infrastructure drive prospects to drill ready Multi-zone drills generally convert to reserves in 1 or 2 zones with additional zones captured as uphole completions in prospect inventory ~10 -20 new drills per year - best return and strategic Average well $0.4 MM D C & E Risked IP 300 Mcf/d; EUR 0.3 Bcf (<$25,000/BOE/d; <$1.77/Mcf)
Grand Rapids
Lower Mannville
Current Production
(excluding Cardium Oil) 7,500 boe/d 75/25 gas to NGLs
Multi-Zone Area
Targeting Viking, Bluesky, Wilrich, Lower Mannville, Fernie Sand & Rock Creek 20 - 40 bbls/MMcf NGLs
Q1 2011
Liquids-Rich Gas
EDSON
Wolf South Deep Cut Plant 66 MMcf/d capacity
CARROT CREEK
Perpetual Lands Perpetual WI Facilities Perpetual Pipeline Pipeline to Wolf South Alliance Pipeline Other Facilities Other Pipelines Rock Creek HZ loc Notikewin HZ loc Wilrich HZ loc
PEMBINA
WEST PEMBINA
T52
To Edson Deep Cut Plant 36 bbl/MMcf NGLs (50% condensate) 13-12-52-16W5 HZ IP >7.0 MMcf/d
Perpetual Wilrich Rights Perpetual Lands Vertical Recompletions Horizontal drills Future locations
Assumptions
$4/Mcf; $75/bbl WTI = $53.20/bbl NGLs ($4/Mcf; $95/bbl WTI=$66.30/bbl NGLs) $6.45/BOE 3,900 M HZ; 2,400 TVD IP 3.5 MMcf/d, One year exit rate 1.85 MMcf/d 36 bbls/MMcf NGLs/condensate 3 Bcfe per well 5% new well royalty rate for 500 MMscf; no drilling credits included Unrisked
Light oil in tight sand halo ~400 boe/d Cardium production 24 net sections of undeveloped Cardium rights HZ well costs: $3MM DC&T Type curve:
CARROT CREEK
EDSON
PEMBINA
21 gross (12 net) sections of undeveloped Cardium rights sold for $14 MM in May 2011
Perpetual Cardium Lands Producing Cardium Wells Perpetual 2011 Cardium HZ Cardium HZ Locations/License
6 mi
Captured $14 million in value from higher risk silty facies with May 2011 disposition
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50/50 Joint Venture with Tourmaline 3 well earning commitment by Tourmaline fulfilled 32 Bcfe P+P reserves booked (7 sections) 145 Bcfe best estimate contingent resource (Assuming 35% recovery & 20 bbl/MMcf NGLs) 34 gross (17 net) sections not yet evaluated (SW Block) 9 HZ and 4 Vertical wells on production 8 addtl HZ wells rig released 4 new HZ wells licensed IP (1 month) of offset HZ wells 3 to 6 MMcf/d 3 Perpetual-interest wells tested up to 7.5 MMcf/d/well Recombined free liquids and NGLs ~ 20 bbl/MMcf condensate plus 25 to 45 bbl/MMcf NGLs (processing dependent)
>1 TCF original gas in place (gross) Resource potential established Working towards area development plan
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Geographically synergistic with shallow gas assets Q2 production forecast: 400 - 450 bbl/d Low cost development drilling
Mannville
Evaluating waterflood and other enhanced recovery Lloyd Channel, Lloyd Regional and Sparky 2011: Q1 2 horizontals Q2-Q4 8 horizontals & 15 verticals
Mannville
Viking-Kinsella
Growing low-risk heavy oil drilling inventory in excess of 100 drill-ready locations
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Test Cycle Injection: May October 2010 Facility Construction Q2-Q4 2010
2-19
7.8 Bcf
Q1 2011
5-18
4-18
1 new HZ well drilled Cycle 2 working gas set at 17 Bcf 1 new HZ drilled in April 2011 1 additional HZ well planned to further increase working gas capacity
Q2-Q4 2011
WGSI Leases Well Site Pad Compressor Facility Pipeline Horizontal Wells Q1 2011 Hz Well Q2-Q4 2011 Hz Wells
1 mi
Cycle 2 working gas set at 17 Bcf - Expect ~$1 MM funds flow per Bcf working gas capacity
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Compressor Bldg.
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6 Bcf P+P Producing 15 Bcf P+P Developed Non-Producing 111 Bcf P+P Undeveloped 837 drills in future development capital Average 138 MMcf/well gross 1,548 unrisked addtl possible locations catalogued Average 111 MMcf/new drill Initiated advanced technical study 3 vertical drills coring 200m each of Colorado/ Viking interval for detailed geological, geomechanical and geochemical analysis Detailed special core analyses Production inflow and fracture modeling Multi-well pilot plan for Colorado Group, incorporating detailed core analysis and fracture and inflow modeling, to be determined Pilot combination of new drills and recompletions Incorporate learnings from pilot into commercial trials and full scale execution 17
Prospect Inventory
2010
Q1-Q3 2011
Q4 2011
2012
Bitumen Lands
526 net sections (336,000 net acres) of oil sand leases 7 unique project areas Various formation targets and ultimate recovery methods 2010 Activity
Drilled oil sands evaluation well at Panny in Q1 2010 Drilled oil well at Marten Hills Q1 2010; 2 wells on cold production for evaluation Testing 4 project areas - South Liege, Hoole, Panny and Clyde 9 verticals; 1 Hz
2011 Activity
Perpetual OS Leases Primary Projects SAGD Projects Fireflood Projects CSS Projects Electric Heaters Oil Pipelines
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Q1 2011 Drilled 3 vertical, 1 HZ to evaluate possibility of cold flow in greater Panny area Established low rate flow without solvent or thermal assistance Average pay thickness 11 m Fairly low viscosity bitumen ~15,000 cp @ 25 C Resource Assessment (McDaniel)
618 MMbbl OBIP (P50) 108 MMbbl Contingent Resource (P50) assigned utilizing horizontal cyclic steam
Future drilling planned targeting possible contingent resource expansion Preparing application for pilot test
Roads Natural Gas Pipeline Oil Well Effluent Pipeline Perpetual Gas Plant Perpetual Oil Sands Rights Other Perpetual Lands
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Q1 2011
3 Grosmont carbonate / Leduc wells drilled to evaluate resource Stacking of 3 Grosmont units; > 30 m pay Leduc reef facies present and bitumen saturated in places; geologically complex Estimate > 1 Billion bbls OBIP
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Heavily weighted to oil and liquids-rich gas Conventional Gas 2 gross (1.5 net) strategic wells Cardium 4 gross (3.0 net) HZ wells Wilrich 2 gross (2.0 net) new wells 2 gross (1.5 net) existing well completions & tie-ins Elmworth Montney 1 completion and tie-in of 1 well (carried) Bitumen 10 gross (10.0 net) evaluation (OV) wells Conventional Heavy Oil 2 gross (2.0 net) wells Warwick Gas Storage HZ 32 recompletions/workovers & tie ins
Bitumen, $7.1 Recompletions/ Workovers, $5.2 Maintenance Capital, $3.0 Heavy Oil, $2.7 Cardium Tight Oil, $10.8
Colorado/Viking geomechanical and geochemical work Colorado Detailed core and fracture simulation work 28 gross abandonments ~16 MMcfe/d (1st 12 month average) Budget Capital Efficiency ~$16,000/flowing BOE/d
>$40 million (70% of Q1 spending) targeting oil and liquids rich gas projects
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Warwick Gas Bitumen, $1.0 Storage (WGSI), Conventional Gas Activity, $2.7 $12.3 Land, $9.5
Recompletions/ Workovers, $5.2 Maintenance Capital, $2.8 Wilrich LiquidsRich Gas, $17.9
Q2-Q4 2011 Capital Budget Increased to $78.5 MM (from $37MM) Heavily weighted to oil and liquids-rich gas to accelerate commodity diversification Drill, Complete and Tie-ins: $60.7 MM
Wilrich 4 gross (4.0 net) HZ wells Heavy Oil - 26 gross (26.0 net) Lloyd/Sparky wells - 10 (10.0 net) exploration to test 7 additional Mannville heavy oil pools Viking/Colorado - small scale pilot WGSI 1 gross (1.0 net) HZ wells 53 recompletions/workovers & tie ins
Seismic and Land: $9.5 MM Maintenance , Abandonment & Reclamation: $2.8 MM Misc. abandonments Target Production Additions
~20.0 MMcfe/d (1st 12 month average) Budget Capital Efficiency ~$23,800 /flowing BOE/d
>$64 million (82% of total spending) targeting oil and liquids rich gas projects Heavily weighted to Wilrich and Mannville Heavy Oil
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Commodity Diversification
Actual and deemed production expected to increase 5% year over year Increased oil and NGL production 57% to 1,620 bbl/d in Q1 2011 from 1,033 bbl/d in 2010; Currently 2,200 bbl/d Adds from NGLs in Wilrich at Edson, light oil from Cardium at Carrot Creek and heavy oil at Mannville from Lloyd and Sparky drilling Capital program targeting to increase oil and NGL production another 130% to over 3,700 bbl/d by Q1 2012 2010 Q1 (175.5 MMcfe/d)
6.2, 4% 26.3, 15%
22.7, 13%
26.0 , 15%
131.7 , 73%
143, 81%
131.1, 76%
Natural Gas
Increasing top line revenue from oil and NGLs with liquids-focused capital programs
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Commodity Diversification
2011 Funds Flow (91% Gas, 9% Oil; Test Cycle to 17 Bcf)
3.50 70 WTI ($/bbl) 80 90 100 110 69 77 86 101 98 4.50 111 120 129 144 141 AECO($/GJ) 5.00 130 139 148 163 160 5.50 148 157 166 181 178 6.50 188 196 205 220 217
Key Assumptions:
Production: Maintain 148 MMcfe/d flat
20% base decline $90 million capital program to maintain production $3MM/MMcfe production addition costs 2011 $14 MM (7.8 to 17 Bcf working gas) 2012 $20 MM (20 Bcf working gas) 2013 $22 MM (22 Bcf working gas)
Note: Assumes 49 Bcf (135 MMcf/d) of gas and 800 Mbbls (2,175 bbls/d) of oil production (91%: 9%).
Note: Assumes 47 Bcf (129 MMcf/d) of gas and 1.1 MMbbls (3,000 bbls/d) of oil production (88% : 12%).
Free cash flow over and above current $36 million dividend (2012-2013 - $28 million) and $135 million capital program (2012 -2013 - $90 million to maintain production) Current forward commodity price (May 24, 2011)
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Note: Assumes 43 Bcf (118 MMcf/d) of gas production and 1.8 MMbbls (4,900 bbls/d) of oil production (80% : 20%).
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Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet
Current Net Bank Debt : ~$90 million
Current borrowing base on credit facility - $250 million Semi-annual redetermination expected on June 30, 2011
Maturity Date June 30, 2012 January 31, 2015 Dec. 31, 2015
Total Net Debt: ~$475 million Gas Storage Financing Arrangement: $42 million equivalent
Delivery obligation for 8 Bcf of cushion gas in Q1 2015
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Total debt reduced 24% since Q2 2007, including an additional 10% in 2010
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Average AECO Monthly Index Gas Price ($/GJ) Full year 2011 funds flow outlook Natural gas production (MMcf/d) Oil and NGL production (bbl/d) Realized gas price ($/Mcfe) Total funds flow ($MM) Per Share ($/Share/month) Payout Ratio (%) Ending net bank debt Ending net total debt Ending net bank debt to Q4 annualized funds flow ratio (times) Ending net total debt to Q4 annualized funds flow ratio (times) 3.00 135 2,170 4.53 86 0.048 41 128 513 2.0 5.5 4.00 135 2,170 5.27 120 0.067 30 94 479 0.7 3.5 5.00 135 2,170 6.00 149 0.084 24 64 449 0.4 2.6
1. Sensitivities incorporate full year operating costs of $97 million, cash general and administrative expenses of $34 million and an interest rate on bank debt of four percent. 2. The current settled and forward average AECO price for 2011 as of May 16, 2011 was $3.70 per GJ. 31
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+
Gas Storage
+
Option Value
NE AB Bitumen Tight Oil and Gas Exploration GOB Technical Solutions TriOil Exploration
Bitumen In-Situ
As technical understanding advances, risk assessment adjusts and risk-discounted potential grows
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Measure
PV10% 1,485 net locations and recompletions
PV10% 57 net locations 26 net locations 172 net locations 111 net locations 822 net locations 120 MMbbls contingent resource 17 22 Bcf working gas @ $10 MM / Bcf 1.3 MM shares
$(475)
$775 $1,380
Per Share
$5.23 - $9.31
Significant future value to be recognized from multiple assets Further leverage to gas price recovery upside
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Investment Thesis
Asset base repositioning for oil and liquids-focused opportunities successful Edson Wilrich in full scale development phase Conventional heavy oil low exposure exploration and development promising High impact value potential from long term resource plays evident Elmworth Montney resource identified and scoping development scenarios Quantifying bitumen contingent resource at Panny and Liege Vast Viking/Colorado shallow shale gas fairway undergoing evaluation Diversified funds flow from gas storage asset established Sum-of-the parts analysis defines an attractive return on investment Evolving commodity mix growing future funds flow and netbacks Tremendous leverage to gas price recovery Every $0.50 per Mcf = $20 million of funds flow 65% of debt has term beyond 2014 providing flexibility to manage through low in gas price cycle Multiple levers available to manage balance sheet to optimize value
Strategically setting in place the inter-locking pieces for a strong growth strategy
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3200, 605 5 Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta CANADA T2P 3H5 800.811.5522 TOLL FREE 403.269.4400 PHONE 403.269.4444 FAX info@perpetualenergyinc.com EMAIL www.perpetualenergyinc.com WEB
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
Susan L. Riddell Rose President & CEO Cameron R. Sebastian Vice President, Finance & CFO
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