Wealth Management Research

14 April 2011

Currency markets
Buy the buck now not later
We adjust our FX forecasts to reflect our call for a US dollar rebound
in the short term, but also reinforcing our long-term call for US dollar weakness.
Thomas Flury, strategist, UBS AG thomas.flury@ubs.com Teck Leng Tan, CFA, strategist, UBS AG teck-leng.tan@ubs.com Katherine Klingensmith, strategist, UBS FS katherine.klingensmith@ubs.com Kazuhiko Ogata, economist, UBS AG kazuhiko.ogata@ubs.com Constantin Bolz, analyst, UBS AG constantin.bolz@ubs.com

There are a variety of reasons why the pressure on the US dollar,

which was extremely strong over the last couple of quarters should find some temporary relief. We see a good chance that EURUSD falls back to the old 1.30-1.40 range before rising again.

We maintain a positive view on our favorite five currencies, AUD,

CAD, SEK, NOK and CHF, because they are supported by a favorable mix of economic stability and high liquidity. Nevertheless, they have become expensive and therefore we recommend to buy them on dips rather than at current spot rates.

Foreign exchange forecasts New forecasts

JPY remains under pressure as the medium term outlook is hurt

by a deteriorating trade balance and economic risks due to the catastrophes that hit Japan. Buy the buck now not later Dollar weakness has been the dominant theme so far in 2011 and is likely to persist in the long term. Over the next couple of months however, we see reasons why the US dollar can appreciate. A unique constellation of investors positions, market expectations and macro-economic trends may usher in short-term strength. These factors may well prompt profit taking on existing US dollar short positions in the near term. However, in the long term we think macroeconomic trends will give investors reason to re-establish US dollar short positions. We have changed our forecasts accordingly, reflecting more short term dollar strength with further weakness in the long term. We assume our new call for short term US dollar strength will lead to more controversial discussions than our long term call for weakness even though the long-term view has much more severe consequences for investor portfolios, as many are still dollar-heavy. Therefore, periods of strength should be used as an opportunity to unwind exposure to the greenback, as the long-term value will be pressured by deficit financing and the debt burden, given that the international community has financed US GDP at a rate of roughly 3% over the last ten years. At this time it still looks unlikely that the combative political situation in Washington, DC will give rise to meaningful austerity measures.

Old forecasts

Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR, as of 13 April 2011

This report has been prepared by UBS AG and UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Please see important disclaimers and disclosures that begin on page 7. Past performance is no indication of future performance. The market prices provided are closing prices on the respective principal stock exchange. This applies to all performance charts and tables in this publication.

Currency markets

Major currencies form a balance of weakness The United States is not alone in struggling with a large government bill; the UK, parts of Europe and Japan also face challenging debt burdens. Therefore, we have focused on opportunities in smaller currencies from countries with robust public and private balance sheets. Our "Favorite Five" currencies are from commodity- producing countries: the Australian dollar (AUD), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Norwegian krona (NOK) and the euro diversifiers, the Swedish krona (SEK) and the Swiss franc (CHF). We expect that these currencies will benefit from rising demand for commodities in the emerging and advanced world, and in the case of the Swiss franc, gain during times of stress. These favored currencies have become expensive however, reflecting the strength of their economies. Our preference for this group is based on long-term fundamentals and we therefore advise adding positions on dips. Global financial markets, including foreign exchange markets, have remained remarkably risk-seeking in the face of dramatic risk events. While the unrest in North Africa and the Middle East has pushed up oil prices and caused us to scale back our expectations for US growth, it does not yet look like a meaningful threat to global growth. Sadly, the magnitude of the events in Japan is still unknown, as the aftershocks continue to shake that country and the nuclear risk remains ominous. However, with the exception of some supply shocks and some drop in global demand, the Japanese disaster also does not look to challenge an otherwise rather rosy view of global growth. Such positive growth momentum is favorable for carry trading, as investors seek to enhance yields on their portfolios, especially compared to the extraordinarily low rates offered in many advanced economies. When we talk about a potential US dollar rebound, we look for a sound consolidation, rather than a fundamental shift in the greenbacks valuation. There are many reasons to look for a consolidation of the USD and the arguments are not directly related with each other.

Currency performance vs. US Dollar General US Dollar weakness

1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 Jul.10
1. July 2010 = 1
Legend order reflects appreciation order

AUD SEK NOK CHF EUR CAD GBP JPY Nov.10 Jan.11 Mrz.11 Mai.11

Sep.10

Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR, as of 13 April 2011

Real effective exchange rates (rebased to 2001) AUD, CHF and CAD are expensive, compared to USD
160

140

120

100

80

60 Jan-01

Jan-03 AUD REER

Jan-05 CAD REER

Jan-07 CHF REER

Jan-09 USD REER

Jan-11

Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR, as of 13 April 2011

Short USD positions on the futures markets are close to extremes. The
extreme level also suggests that private investors maintain a strong underweight in USD. In such a constellation, any strengthening of the USD will lead dollar debtors to unwind their positions and, consequently, an accelerated buying of USD.

IMM Positions Extreme levels of USD short positions

150,000 JPY 50,000 (50,000) (150,000) (250,000) (350,000) (450,000) 01 03 05 07 09 11 GBP CHF CAD AUD EUR MXN RUB NZD USD

A deterioration of the Japanese growth outlook, trade surplus and a

huge, publicly financed re-construction program should ensure that the yen weakens further. More and more investors are therefore looking to shift their USD credits into yen credits. This shift in the funding currency for carry trades indirectly supports the dollar.

The high value of AUD, CAD, EUR, CHF and many other currencies
tightens monetary conditions in these countries. AUD, CAD and CHF are so strongly overvalued on a trade weighted basis that we are skeptical about the economic soundness of further appreciation of these currencies.

Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR, as of 13 April 2011

Interest rate expectations The ECB has started the rate hike cycle first
7 6 5
P rozent

The end of Federal Reserves second round of Quantitative Easing

(QE2), which is planned for June, is likely to support the US dollar; we expect this will be the end of the Feds balance sheet expansion through additional Treasury purchases. Pent-up demand for Treasuries could then help the US dollar, at least in the short term.

4 3 2 1 0 99 00

The surprise factor for any potential US tightening is big. Markets expect almost no tightening for the US over the next 12 months (+25 bps) and a lot of tightening for the ECB (+125bps). The asymmetry in expectations exposes the two regions to surprises to the dollars benefit. The USD is therefore likely to react to any new ideas of tighten-

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

USA, Fed Funds Target Rate Grossbritannien, Bank Rate Eurozone, ECB Minim um Bid Rate Schweiz, 3 Monats- LIBOR Ziel Japan, Target Rate
Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR, as of 13 April 2011

Wealth Management Research 14 April 2011

Currency markets

ing, while the disappointment potential for Europe is much bigger in our view.

In the past, any sharp but small appreciation of the dollar gained momentum, triggering EURUSD to drop further. Those foreign investors who are naturally long US dollar, including central banks in Asia and the Middle East are happy to see USD appreciation and normally wait and see before they start selling USD. Normally we would expect them to unwind USD around EURUSD 1.30 or even a bit lower. Economic data in the US has improved substantially, although higher oil prices have had an effect on consumer and small business sentiment. While Germany is generally doing well, many countries outside of core Europe are struggling to grow their way out of austerity.

Finally, the trigger for US dollar strength could also be a second re-run
of the 2004 homeland investment act (HIA). HIA allowed companies to repatriate foreign earnings at a highly reduced tax rate and use the proceeds for investments. In an election year the incentive to do so increases and the 2004 experience shows that the repatriation brings meaningful amounts of money back home, giving relief to the trade balance and supporting the US dollar.

Hopes that a growth recovery has firmly arrived could briefly lift the
US dollar in 2011. In our view, phases of broad US dollar strength, if they come at all, are probably unsustainable. America's printing presses will not determine economic realities, in our view. For one thing, the Fed and the US government are providing money to consumers and companies who will spend some of this money abroad, deepening the trade deficit and hurting the greenback's outlook. As we have noted, US authorities show no interest in reversing export-friendly US dollar weakness. They are even promoting a weaker US dollar versus the CNY as a cure to US economic woes. Indirectly, we think this stance should also weaken the US dollar against a broad basket of currencies. The remote possibility of a stronger dollar could occur if US policy makers were to shift their stance decisively from expansionary to restrictive. However, we would only recommend buying the greenback if the Fed shrank its balance sheet drastically and the Treasury slashed its budget with similar vigor. Turning restrictive would support the US dollar, even if it might imply the US economy was returning to recession. For now, this is pure hypothetical and consequently we see little chance for a significant appreciation of the US dollar even against the crisis-plagued euro. The dollar could also gain in the event of a true crisis in the Eurozone, a scenario which we do not currently envision. We forecast EURUSD to drop back into the 1.30 to 1.40 range, before heading higher, towards 1.50. Europe has managed to overcome some challenges in April with the notional agreement to implement changes to the bail-out funds. It now appears that markets need not be fearful of any European debt liquidity issues for the next couple of years. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) are likely sufficiently well funded that even Spain could receive a bail-out if needed. The lack of stability measures remains however, almost unchanged. There is little in the agreement so far, which can convince us that no other country will fall in the same debt trap as Greece, Ireland or Portugal. However, this is a long-term issue, which should not worry us in 2011 or 2012. So far European growth is strong. The initial driver was exports out of Germany into Asia, central Europe and Russia and into the Middle East. Growth momentum has however already shifted towards domestically oriented sectors and to other countries.

Wealth Management Research 14 April 2011

Currency markets

JPY poised to weaken We revised up our forecasts on USDJPY due mainly to Japan-specific reasons, coupled with our expectation that carry trading will continue to weaken low yielding currencies. The G7 agreement on 18 March to jointly intervene should the yen appreciate substantially has crucial implications, limiting the upside for the JPY. Going forward, Japans difficult economic fundamentals are expected to weaken the JPY. The after effects from the quake should notably squeeze Japan's trade surplus, with exports shrinking due to supply constraints and energy imports likely to increase. The government is spending additional money to rebuild and stimulate the economy broadly, adding to the already dramatic debt burden. Japans inflationary pressures could intensify given the very expansive monetary policy combined with supply constraints in production and consumer goods. The country's output gap will probably narrow due to production capacity losses, while monetary and fiscal stimulus lifts price pressure. CHF strong but maybe not that strong The Swiss franc is strong, which reflects the strength of the Swiss economy. Domestic demand is heavily supported by the opening of the labor market to foreign workers. Exports are in high demand from emerging markets and Germany. The Swiss economy has the competitive advantage of a very low debt level and GDP growth has outpaced expectations, which were subdued due to the very strong trade-weighted CHF. Current economic stability is however no guarantee that the economy will be strong enough to maintain that level of activity in the future. We expect rising interest rates in Europe to detract from the attractiveness of the Swissie and therefore forecast a rebound of EURCHF. Additionally, as concerns about the institutional trappings of the euro fade the demand for franc as a perceived safe haven fades. The Swiss National Bank will eventually hike rates, but only when monetary conditions ease with some depreciation of the Swiss franc. GBP: Austerity and inflation will eventually lead to a stronger pound The UK economic recovery continues to struggle with deep cuts in government spending and inflation far above the Bank of Englands (BoE) target rate of 2%. In our view however, the UK is much more effectively reducing its debt levels than the US and parts of peripheral Europe. Such austerity measures can be very painful in the short-term, but we expect the debt and currency of the UK to benefit in the long term. However, in the short term such cuts come at the expense of growth, and while PMI in the service sector has been strong, the housing market is recovering very slowly and manufacturing has been anemic, especially given the weak currency. High headline inflation reflects surging energy and food prices as well as the weak pound. However even striping those out, inflation is still too high for the BoE to wait on further rate hikes for an extended period. We continue to look for two more rate hikes this year and four hikes in 2012, which should eventually lead to a stronger GBP. Given our long term view on EUR and USD, we see a gradual recovery of GBPUSD above 1.70. For EURGBP the picture is less stable, with a short term weakening of the EUR, which should bring EURGBP towards 0.84. Over twelve months, the more consistent rate hike cycle of the ECB compared to the BoE should, however, support the euro, pushing EURGBP higher.

Correlation USDJPY vs. interest yield differential USDJPY to recover, with the end of QE2
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 Apr-08 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 USDJPY (rhs) UST-JGB 2yr differentials in % (lhs)

Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR, as of 13 April 2011

EURCHF depends on interest rate differential Rising ECB rates strengthens the euro

Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR, as of 13 April 2011

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Currency markets

CAD: It's not just an oil story, but also a strong fundamental story We see multiple factors supporting the Canadian Dollar. On the one hand, external factors have become positive, including higher energy and other commodity prices and a pick-up in US demand. Internal factors are also constructive, including increasing momentum in domestic demand, a strongly rising Ivey PMI and increasing inflation expectations. The Bank of Canada will, in our view, begin to position for eventual rate hikes from its ultra loose monetary policy of 1%. However, the rapid currency appreciation has tightened monetary conditions and handicapped non-commodity exporters, which is of concern to the BoC. Nonetheless, we expect a rate hike will come before the third quarter concludes, which would likely further support the CAD. USDCAD has a strong correlation with the price of oil; while we expect oil prices will stay high, we do no look for them to continue to increase, therefore ceasing to continue to push the Loonie further up. Overall, given the weakness of the USD, we expect a gradual appreciation path towards USDCAD 0.93 over the next twelve months. The current strength of EUR and CHF also offers nice entry levels to diversify into the Canadian dollar. SEK, NOK: Current weakness should be used! EURNOK and EURSEK have slowed down their appreciation path relative to the euro and even corrected a bit in recent months. Overall our view for both Scandinavian currencies remains unchanged. Both continue to have a robust domestic economies as well as strong exports. Further, both central banks are ahead of the rate hike cycles of the big four central banks and we expect them to continue hiking further throughout 2011, which would increase the interest rate differential. Given the setback, especially by the SEK, since the earthquake in Japan and the following increase in risk aversion, we see current levels as good entry points to enter EURSEK and EURNOK positions. Especially euro and Swiss franc investors should use the current strength of these currencies to obtain SEK and NOK exposure. AUD: Coal and iron ore demand to keep AUD elevated We update our AUDUSD forecast to 1.00 (previously 0.96) in three months, 1.00 (0.96) in six months and to 1.00 (0.96) in 12 months. Strong coal and iron ore demand, from fast-growing China and India, continues to benefit the AUD. Sustained interest in carry-trades also boosted the high-yielding AUD, propelling the AUDUSD above several key technical resistance levels. However, speculative FX futures contracts reflect elevated long-AUD and short-USD positioning, therefore we would be cautious on chasing further AUDUSD gains. Additionally, high interest rates and exchange rates have begun to take a toll on some sectors of the Australian economy. While short-term upside momentum could push the AUDUSD to higher levels, we expect the medium-term trading range to be 0.98 - 1.05, and recommend buying the currency pair on dips below the parity level.

Correlation of USDCAD and WTI crude oil High oil correlation one of the main CAD drivers
1.20 140 120 100 80 0.90 60 0.80 40 0.70 20 0 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Inverse USDCAD WTI Crude Oil (in USD)

1.10

1.00

0.60 Jan 01

Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR, as of 13 April 2011

Australia trade balance Surplus mainly attributed to coal and iron ore exports
4,000 2,000 0 (2,000) (4,000) (6,000) (8,000) (10,000) Feb-07

Feb-08

Feb-09

Feb-10

Feb-11

Monthly trade balance, including coal and iron ore Monthly trade balance, excluding coal and iron ore

Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR, as of 13 April 2011

Wealth Management Research 14 April 2011

Currency markets

NZD: Not the most preferred long-carry currency We update our NZDUSD forecast to 0.74 (previously 0.73) in three months, 0.74 (0.73) in six months and to 0.75 (0.71) in 12 months. The NZD has recently strengthened in tandem with the AUD, being boosted to a certain extent by the revival of short JPY carry-trade in the aftermath of jointG7 intervention. However, we believe the recent rise of the NZDUSD to be unsustainable. Consumer spending and business sentiment remain fragile, following two damaging earthquakes in Christchurch. This has led the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut policy rates by 50bps in March to 2.5%, bringing it back to its record low level in 2009. We believe that the RBNZ will keep its accommodative monetary policy stance for the remaining of 2011, to support consumer and business confidence. This diminishes the attractiveness of the NZD as a long carry-trade currency, especially in an environment where other central banks are starting or have started their monetary tightening cycles. We expect the NZDUSD to decline from current levels and trade closer to 0.74 over the next six months. A potential pickup in economic activity starting 1Q2012 might precipitate a gradual NZDUSD rise towards 0.75 in the longer term.

RBNZ policy rate Policy rate back to 2009 lows, after March's rate cut
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11

Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR, as of 13 April 2011

Wealth Management Research 14 April 2011

Currency markets

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Wealth Management Research 14 April 2011