September 15, 2011

Obamas Blue-State Blues

From Politico
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By Edward Issac-Devore September 15, 2011 Barack Obama has a case of the blue state blues. In Democratic strongholds from Vermont to Californianot to mention New York City, where the president helped sink his partys nominee in Tuesdays special electionObama isnt quite tanking, but hes moving unmistakably in the wrong direction. But pollsters point to the canary-in-the-coalmine factor: if Obama cant hold these voters, they say, its a sign that his wider support among the reliably Democratic electorate of liberals, labor, young people, Jews, African-Americans and other key blocs is withering. They wont be there in large numbers to put him over the top again in borderline states, and they wont be there to feed his campaign money and provide volunteer support at the levels they did in 2008. Tuesdays election in New Yorks heavily Democratic Queens- and Brooklyn-based 9th District proved to be an extreme manifestation of Obamas blue state problem: His approval rating was at 43 percent in a Sept. 9 Siena Research Institute poll and 31 percent in a Sept. 11 automated poll by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm. It is not per se a Democratic problem, its a problem with this president, said Siena spokesman Steve Greenberg. Sienas been picking up on the trend for months, with its most recent New York statewide poll showing Democratic approval of the president down from 86 percent in April to 67 percent. Greenberg says that though the pollings made clear that Obamas never going to win back the Republicans who were with him on Election Day 2008or at least supportive in the months afterthe real erosion has been within his own party. Where hes lost his support in New York is among the Democrats, Greenberg said. Thats more startling than the overall. And Californias Field Poll reported Wednesday that, for the first time since Obama took office, fewer than half of state voters approved of his overall performance. In March 2009, 65 percent approved of his job was doing as president and just 21 percent disapproved. By September 2011, just 46 percent approved while 44
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percent disapproved. But in August, Quinnipiac University conducted a pair of polls in New York and New Jersey that showed the president dropping by double-digits since June, leaving him at a 45 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval rate in New York and a 44 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval across the river. Given the overwhelmingly Democratic electorate in these states, Quinnipiac polling director Mickey Carroll said he thinks those numbers could serve as proxies for the feelings of core Obama voters far from the Hudson. When New York and New Jersey, where he ought to be doing much better, are this low, Carroll said, that spreads out: throw a rock in the water and the ripples go outits not good. PPPs Tom Jensen said he can already see base troubles putting the president on defense in several less reliably Democratic states that Obama won by double digits in 2008. If you have to fight to keep Wisconsin, youre not going to be really playing in Georgia, Arizona and Indiana, Jensen said, referring to three Republican-leaning states where Democrats have at times expressed optimism about Obamas chances there. Obamas numbers have been ticking downward for months. Whether split out by race, age or anything else, just about every cross-tab tells the same story: a good portion of those who danced in the streets on election night and stood for hours in the cold on the Mall for the inauguration have begun to wander away. To View The Entire Article, Please Visit: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63568.html

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