Palestinian leader sets his course: full UN membership. Can US avoid a veto?

President Abbas has chosen a path Palestinians know cannot succeed, but it bring s their cause maximum exposure at the UN next week and would force the US to use its Security Council veto.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas speaks about his bid for Palestinian stateho od recognition at the United Nations next week, during a televised speech in the West Bank city of Ramallah on Friday, Sept. 16. (Darren Whiteside/Reuters) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------By Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer posted September 16, 2011 at 2:54 pm EDT Washington Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced Friday that he will seek full UN m embership for Palestine through the Security Council next week setting the stage for a confrontation with Israel and a potentially image-damaging veto by the Un ited States. The decision means the Palestinians are going for an option at the United Nation s that they know cannot succeed, but which will nevertheless put the Israeli-Pal estinian conflict on center stage at the opening next week of the UN General Ass embly. International efforts to dissuade Mr. Abbas from what is now his stated path of action at the UN are expected to continue up to the Palestinian leaders speech to the General Assembly next Friday, but chances of putting off the move dimmed co nsiderably with the announcement. RELATED: Top 5 issues on the table for Israeli-Palestinian talks Palestinian leaders have said for weeks that Abbas was almost certain to seek so me form of action at the UN in light of frustration over the stalled peace talks a nd the utter lack of progress in direct negotiations with Israel that President Obama relaunched with great fanfare a year ago. Some Palestinian leaders had suggested that Abbas might ultimately opt for a les s confrontational observer UN status through a vote of the General Assembly. The P alestinians might eventually take that route, some UN experts point out, if as e xpected a bid for full membership is blocked by a US veto in the Security Counci l. In any case, no dramatic immediate Security Council showdown is anticipated next week, since Abbas is expected to make his request for membership on Sept. 23, F riday, with the Security Council likely to take several weeks to review the requ est before taking a vote. At that time the Palestinians could then opt for a sort of Plan B of recognition t hrough the General Assembly as a nonmember observer state. An affirmative vote i n the General Assembly is virtually assured, since more than 125 countries have already recognized Palestine as a state.

Abbass decision assures that the Palestinian issue will dominate the UN at a time when Obama, among other Western leaders, had been hoping to highlight Libya in particular and dramatic events across the Arab world over the last year more gen erally. But the decision is unlikely to do anything to bring the Middle East crisis any closer to resolution. This does nothing productive for the Palestinians, says Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Yet they are in a position now where it is very hard to step down. A US veto of Palestinian statehood in the Security Council risks souring US rela tions with Muslim countries a region of particular focus for Obama but White Hou se officials say they know the administrations efforts at repairing American stan ding in the world have faced the most resistance in the Arab world anyway. The Arab world has continued to be very challenging , said Ben Rhodes, the White H ouse deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, briefing rep orters Friday on Obamas trip to the UN next week. That difficulty is a result of the frustration Mr. Rhodes says everyone feels at t he lack of progress in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But he added that no matter how those frustrations may be vented in New York next week or els ewhere the reality remains that only negotiations can resolve the conflict. What ever happened in New York, this [conflict] is going to be resolved between I sraelis and Palestinians, Rhodes said. That may be true, but CSISs Mr. Alterman says the reality is also that the politi cal conditions for each side the Israelis and Palestinians simply arent there to suggest hope that direct negotiations can start up again anytime soon. The principle problem is a political problem, not a diplomatic problem, Alterman s ays, I dont see any of the [Palestinians UN options] resolving that. RELATED: Top 5 issues on the table for Israeli-Palestinian talks

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