Professional Documents
Culture Documents
16 September 2011
Michael Blythe Chief Economist T. +612 9118 1101 E. michael.blythe@cba.com.au James McIntyre Economist T. +612 9118 1100 E. james.mcintyre@cba.com.au Joseph Capurso Currency Strategist T. +612 9118 1106 E. joseph.capurso@cba.com.au Peter Dragicevich FX Economist T. +612 9118 1107 E. peter.dragicevich@cba.com.au Chris Tennent-Brown FX Economist T. +612 9117 1378 E. chris.tennent-brown@cba.com.au
Important Disclosures and analyst certifications regarding subject companies are in the Disclosure and Disclaimer Appendix of this document and at www.research.commbank.com.au. This report is published, approved and distributed by Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945.
Economics: Perspective
International Economic Perspective Operation Twist: Fed to introduce more policy easing
We expect the FOMC to announce further monetary policy support at its policy meeting on 21 September. We expect the Fed to run down its short-term US Treasury holdings and buy long-term Treasuries, known as a twist. The effect on the USD is neutral because US two-year bond yields are likely to be unaffected.
US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
(University of Michigan)
Come on let's twist again like we did last summer Yea, let's twist again like we did last year Do you remember when things were really hummin' Yea, let's twist again, twistin' time is here Excerpt from The Twist, Chubby Checker, 1960
120 Points
100
80
Since Federal Reserve chair Bernankes speech at Jackson Hole on 27 August, the US economy has shown few signs of improvement. Consumer confidence has slumped and the labour market has remained weak. One of our favourite leading indicators for the US labour market, temporary workers, suggests the weakness evident in the August payrolls report has further to run. A literal reading of our indicator suggests payrolls may decrease in coming months. While personal spending increased smartly by 0.8% in July, it mainly reflected a drawdown of savings. This performance is unlikely to be repeated in coming months. We think the FOMCs forecast of core PCE inflation of 1.7%pa by the end of 2012 contain some downside risks. The US economy is weaker than the FOMC projected in June. We expect the Fed to revise down their forecasts and indicate core inflation peaks later in 2011 and eases in 2012. In our view, an extended period of below trend economic growth in the US may increase excess capacity and bear down on future inflation. A projection of core inflation easing below the Feds implicit tolerance band of 1.7-2.0% in 2012 implies there is a case for the Fed to deliver further policy support.
300
30
-300
-30
-600
-60
-900 Jan-96
-90
Operation Twist
We think the US economy has deteriorated enough since the FOMCs policy meeting in August to encourage the majority of FOMC members to vote for further policy stimulus at its next meeting on 21 September. At the August meeting, there was some support within the FOMC to provide more stimulus than what was delivered. The minutes from that meeting indicate the majority of members thought the decision to provide guidance about how long the funds rate would remain unchanged was a measured response. The minutes also reveal that a few members of the FOMC felt that recent economic developments justified a more substantial move. The FOMCs next policy meeting in September has been extended to two days. In our view, the extension implies the FOMC will publish a new set of economic forecasts, one meeting earlier than scheduled, and these forecasts will be published in the minutes of the meeting. We also expect the FOMC to consider a wider range of policy options than the four options considered in August. At the September meeting, we expect the FOMC to re-consider three of the four options they discussed in August.
EVOLUTION OF FED'S FORECASTS
(Core PCE inflation forecasts)
% 2.5 2011 2.0 2011 1.5 2013 2012 1.0 Expected revisions 0.5 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Month forecast prepared 0.5 1.0 1.5 2012 2013 2.0 % 2.5
Economics: Perspective
Lengthen the average maturity of their securities holdings by altering the composition of the balance sheet. Increase the size of its balance sheet, ie, QE3. Decrease the interest rate the Fed pays to banks on excess reserves. We also expect the FOMC to consider some creative policy options, such as the introduction of an explicit inflation target, price level targeting or targeting yields on long-term government bonds. The FOMC may also consider linking its policy stance to inflation or unemployment rate targets. On balance, we expect the FOMC to lengthen the average maturity of its securities holdings at its September meeting. This policy, known in the market as Operation Twist, can be implemented by the Fed replacing its short-term US Treasury holdings with long-term Treasuries. Operation Twist could lower long-term yields and despite some selling of short term securities, it would leave short-term yields unaffected. Short-term US yields have been anchored by the FOMCs previous guidance to leave the funds rate unchanged until at least mid-2013. We favour Operation Twist over QE3 because it would not involve expanding the Feds balance sheet. Operation Twist may placate the three dissenters on the FOMC, though we do not think the dissenters are a major obstacle to further easing. We think Operation Twist would deliver more stimulus to the US economy than a cut to the interest rate the Fed pays to banks on their excess reserves. We expect the FOMC is not yet willing to implement the more creative policy options noted above, although it may consider their merits and costs at its policy meeting this month. Operation Twist is not without risks. The Fed already owns 18% of the US government bonds outstanding with a maturity longer than ten years. Operation Twist would increase further the Feds ownership share of longer term Treasuries. The higher the Feds ownership share of Treasuries, the more difficult it will be for the Fed to reduce its exposure without disrupting the Treasury market when the FOMC decides to remove its policy stimulus.
40
30
20 Weighted average
10
0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041
LENDING TO US CORPORATES
pts 90 Lending standards to large corporates (lhs) -90 pts
60
-60
30
-30
-30 Demand for loans from large corporates (rhs) -60 Jan-95 Jan-99 Jan-03 Jan-07 Jan-11
30
60
YIELD CURVES
% 4
(Selected economies)
% 4
450
450
300
300
150
150
0 Jan-12
Economics: Perspective
currency forecasts, published 14 September 2011).
These stresses in Europes banking system, particularly the scramble for USD funding following further European bank stress and the Feds abolishment of regulation Q, are also influencing currencies (see FX Strategy - What really cause the recent global sell-off? published 17 August 2011). The three-month EUR/USD basis swap, the rate which floating rates are exchanged across currencies, has blown out to more than 80 points (it had been above 100 points). The blow-out of the EUR basis swap is the largest since late 2008. European banks continue to deposit large amounts of EUR with the ECB rather than lend to other banks. Our indicator of inter-bank risk in Europe is near levels experienced in the early stages of the GFC in late 2007 and early 2008. European banks are offering rates 80bps above repo to attract cash. We believe the downside risks to EUR are rising. Consequently, we see little negative implication for the USD from Operation Twist. (Note: these stresses have led to coordinated central bank efforts to provide USD funding to European banks, as discussed on page one).
Joseph Capurso Currency Strategist T. +612 9118 1106 E. joseph.capurso@cba.com.au
pp 2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0 Jan-12
Economics: Perspective
UNDERLYING CPI
%
%
(annual % change)
Old 4 4
Old
1 Sep-02
Economics: Perspective
No 600
NATURAL DISASTERS
No 600
400
400
200
200
Source: EM-DAT
NATURAL DISASTERS
% 0.6
% 0.6
0.2
0.2
0.0
The regional cost is large but little impact is evident on global growth rates.
Economics: Perspective
global economy running at close to trend. Natural disasters have only a limited impact on global trends because they are local in nature. The flip side of this is that disasters can have a large impact on the regions affected. Looking at the worst examples of the past twenty years, for example, shows that Hurricane Katrina caused economic damage equivalent to 1% of US GDP in 2005. And the economic damage from the Maule earthquake and tsunami in 2010 amounted to 15% of Chilean GDP. The broader conclusion, however, still holds at the regional level. The impact on economic activity tends to be relatively shortlived. The recovery phase tends to be relatively rapid and compensates for the initial loss of activity. The top chart uses industrial production as a proxy for overall economic activity around the time of major disasters. In some cases (eg the Wenchuan quake in China in 2008) it is difficult to see any effect at all. In others where there was a significant impact (eg the Kobe quake in Japan in 1995) activity was back at pre-disaster levels within a few months. Hurricane Ike in 2008 is an exception where an output recovery failed. The recovery phase after that disaster coincided with the onset of the global financial crisis. The Australian economic story has been a pretty easy one to sell over the past few years. Our track record is well established. And global investors are happy to acknowledge that record. At the start of this year it looked like more of the same. But some of that earlier optimism has dissipated. The economy has lost momentum and the debate about our economic resilience has resurfaced. Australian disasters have weighed on domestic consumer sentiment. The initial trigger was the natural disasters that hit the economy earlier in the year. In many respects, the impact of these disasters is playing out in line with the global historical experience. There was a bigger impact on regional economies than the national economy. And recovery has been quite swift in some areas. Data collected as part of the Viewpoint project illustrates the point. Salary payments into CBA accounts are a proxy for employment and income trends. Swift action by governments obviously helps. Looking at the trajectory of those payments around the times of various disasters ranging from the Victorian bushfires in early 2009 to the Queensland floods in 2009, 2010 and 2011 reveals: a large downturn during the disaster period and its immediate aftermath; and a reasonably rapid bounce back to something like pre-disaster levels over a period of 4-8 months.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(month before disaster=100)
Index 110 Wenchuan quake (China'08) Hurricane Katrina (US'05) Index 110
100
70
Index
REAL GDP
(Sep'08= 100)
Index
105 Australia US
105
NZ 100
100 Europe UK
95
90
Economics: Perspective
But there are also some important differences from the global experience with natural disasters. The Queensland floods and WA cyclones, for example, had an outsized impact on two of Australias key exports coal and iron ore. Disruptions to production and transport were enough to drag the economy backwards in the first quarter of 2011. Nevertheless, the broad conclusion holds good. This export pothole will be filled in. Iron ore exports are near normal levels and coal is on the way back. The economy will eventually reach the same end point even though the path taken is somewhat different. A return to end 2010 coal export levels will add ppts to GDP growth in HII 2011. This boost will be a significant offset to whatever drag may eventuate from current uncertainties and risks. The impact on sentiment is another channel that distributes and extends the impact of natural disasters. The Commonwealth Bank survey of consumer perceptions, for example, shows that the proportion of respondents who think the economy is going downhill has some tendency to lift around major natural disasters. Very high readings were recorded after the Victorian bushfires and North Queensland floods in early 2009. Some impact of these disasters was no doubt captured in the data. But the elevated nature of these readings was more a reflection of the global financial crisis. This edition of the Commonwealth Banks Viewpoint surveyed households directly on their perceptions about natural disasters. The results suggest again that the impact on the broader economy was more pervasive than first thought. A surprisingly large share of the population believes they have been affected by natural disasters. When quizzed on whether they were affected by the floods, the majority (64%) indicated they were not affected. But a surprisingly high proportion of respondents indicated they were affected either directly (9%) or indirectly (27%). These proportions are quite high relative to the regional concentration of the disasters. The perceived impact on personal finances was greater still: some 45% of respondents believe that recent natural disasters had a negative impact on their personal financial situation; about 39% saw no impact; and a small proportion (about 10%) described the floods as having a positive impact on personal finances. One puzzling aspect of the Australian economic story for a while now has been the reluctance of consumers to spend. Household ability to spend is quite good. Incomes are growing quickly and savings are at elevated levels. But the appetite to spend is missing. This lack of
25 25
A return to end 2010 coal export levels will add ppts to GDP growth in HII 2011.
(disaster month=100)
Source: CBA Viewpoint
Index 120
110
110
100
100
90
Index 120
EXPORT VOLUMES
(Oct'10=100, nsa)
Iron Ore Coal Coking Fines
Index 120
100
100
80
60
Source: ABS
% 75
50
50
Economics: Perspective
appetite is largely a reflection of concerns about personal finances. And, in turn, these concerns partly reflect the spate of natural disasters in recent times. Other factors are also weighing on sentiment. Natural disasters are not the only factor weighing on sentiment at the moment. Households generally are not happy. The evidence is there in the very real fears that households have about the state of their finances. Our surveys show that most feel their personal circumstances are worse than six months ago. And the proportion expecting some improvement in the next six months is falling quickly. This outcome is despite the fact that disposable income is growing strongly (up 7.4% over the past year)! The disconnect between sentiment and finance is surprising. Household fears are typically financial in nature. Our surveys indicate that the greatest fears have a cashflow aspect (such as losing a job or paying the mortgage) or an investment theme (such as building up savings for retirement). Low sentiment levels are contributing to consumer caution. Ongoing consumer restraint is a key objective for policy makers. Such restraint is necessary to deal with the inflation risks and resource allocation issues in a fully-employed economy facing rapid income growth and an unstoppable mining boom. In a perverse way, the depressing influence of natural disasters on household sentiment earlier in the year helped. This influence will, however, wane over time. And recent global events have injected some additional uncertainty into the policy debate. But higher interest rates will be required at some point. Interest rate fears are receding a little. There are some indications that the impact of earlier rate rises is starting to recede. The Commonwealth Bank survey of consumer perceptions, for example, shows a strong correlation between the proportion of respondents who worry about housing costs and the change in the mortgage rate. But extended pauses in the policy cycle, such as so far in 2011, has seen these fears recede. While the general trend is for regional economies to get back to something like predisaster levels reasonably quickly, the aggregate picture conceals a degree of variation between regions. There are some lingering after-effects from such disasters. There are some lingering aftereffects from natural disasters. Commonwealth Banks unemployment indicators, based on Newstart data collected as part of the Viewpoint project, highlight the issue. All disaster-affected regions in our survey show an initial spike in this unemployment indicator. But the speed of the
IMPACT OF NATURAL DISASTERS
(% of respondents)
% 120
Source: CBA Viewpoint
%pa 16
165 Index
130
-8
95
60
Mar-00
Mar-05
Mar-10
PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES
% 40
(net % of respondents)
% 40
20
-20
-20
-40
% 30 Losing job
GREATEST FEAR
(% of respondents)
Unable to pay mortgage/rent Inability to provide necessities
% 30
20
20
10
Investment losses
10
Oct 10
Economics: Perspective
subsequent pull back has varied. Based on this metric, the aftermath of the Victorian bushfires and the floods in North Queensland have had a more enduring impact on those regions than other disasters. Various forces seem to be at work. There are, for example, some indications in the Viewpoint data that the cumulative effect of a series of natural disasters takes a toll. Successive floods in North Queensland have contributed to more enduring negatives in that region. The type of disaster is important in determining the ultimate economic impact. Research by NATSEM, as discussed in Viewpoint, suggests that the type of disaster is important in determining the impact. The rate of migration from bushfire-affected regions exceeds that of flood-affected regions. So the population outflow after the Victorian bushfires probably weighed on recovery in those regions. The proximity to a major centre (Melbourne) no doubt accentuated the shift. Flood-affected regions in Queensland, in contrast, are further removed from major centres. Industry structure is also important. Natural disasters hit hard in areas where agriculture and tourism (retail, accommodation & food) are major parts of the local economy.
INTEREST RATES & "FEAR"
% of 24 respondents 1.0 %pts Change in mortgage rate (over 3 months, rhs) 0.5
21
18
0.0
15
-0.5
-1.0
UNEMPLOYMENT AVERAGES
Index 180
120
60
0 Vic Bushfires (Feb'09) N Qld Floods (Feb'09) SWQ floods (Mar'10) Brisbane floods (Jan'11)
About Viewpoint: The Commonwealth Banks business generates a vast array of data on financial transactions, savings and spending patterns. From this mass of data a confidential sample of 1.3 million consumers has been selected that closely matches the structure of the Australian population. This sample allows us to investigate topical issues and track trends in incomes, spending, saving - when the economy is speeding up or slowing down. This hard-edged financial data is overlayed with a survey of consumer perceptions and experiences that we run each month with over 2,000 individuals. The report is then analysed and commented on by the independent economic research body the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) based in the University of Canberra. The actual report can be found at: http://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/ourcompany/viewpoint/default.aspx
(start of disaster=100)
Bushfires
Vic Feb'09
NQ Floods
Feb'09
SWQ Floods
Mar'10
Index 150
100
50
50 Agriculture
Source: CBA Viewpoint
10
Economics: Perspective
New Zealand Economic Perspective NZ QII growth may falter, but economy will strive on
Economy likely grew by just 0.1% over QII, following 0.8% growth in QI. Underlying trend remains firm, although perhaps less upbeat than initially thought. RBNZ remains optimistic on the domestic growth outlook, but global risks have near-term rate hikes off the agenda. NZ QII GDP data expected to show growth has slowed. NZ QII GDP data are released on 22 September. We expect GDP growth of just 0.1% over QII, following a robust 0.8% increase over the first quarter of 2011. The strength of the QI increase was particularly impressive given the disruption caused by the February earthquake. While QI growth was led by a strong increase in manufacturing production, the GDP increase was relatively broad based (with the exception of a decline in construction). The result, combined with the upward revision to QIV, revealed the economic recovery was stronger and faster than previously thought. Initial indicators had pointed to growth maintaining momentum over QII. Confidence remained buoyant while spending data were strong. However, more recent data have revealed a sharper pull back in manufacturing and wholesale trade than thought. Meanwhile, further declines in construction activity will prove to be a large drag on overall activity in QII. Underlying growth story remains positive. The underlying story remains buoyant, although perhaps less upbeat than initially thought following the QI GDP result. Over the first half of the year, the economy probably grew at an average quarterly pace of 0.4-0.5%, which is consistent with where business confidence was prevailing. In addition, the outlook for the second half of 2011 remains solid. We expect to see continued gradual recovery in the household sector and business investment. Many of the industries that will be underpinning the QII decline are unlikely to remain weak Retail spending and real estate-related services are expected to be the main contributors to QII growth. Retail spending volumes lifted 1.5% (on a GDP basis), following on from the previous quarters strong growth. The increase was reasonably broad-based across regions, although the strongest growth was in other South Island, which suggests there was a noticeable impact of displaced activity as many Cantabrians relocated following the quake. Nonetheless, the strength of spending growth over the first half of the year indicates an improvement in underlying household demand. Reinforcing the improvement in household demand, house sales lifted 13% over the quarter which will underpin a lift in real estate% 2.0 1 .5 1 .0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1 .0
Source: Stat s NZ, ASB
NZ GDP GROWTH
(per quarter, seas adj)
(f)
qpc 3
qpc 3 2 1 0 -1
-2 -3
M ar-90 M ar-94
M ar-98
M ar-02
M ar-06
M ar-1 0
% 7
NZ GDP GROWTH
7 A nnual average % (f) 5
-1
-3
11
Economics: Perspective
related services. The recovery in housing turnover has started to stall more recently. However, as Red Zone payouts in Christchurch begin to be finalised, we expect this to generate a further increase in housing market activity. Manufacturing, wholesale trade, construction weak. Declines in manufacturing, wholesale trade and construction are expected to be the main drag on GDP growth over QII. The decline in manufacturing and wholesale trade activity is likely to be temporary. NZ data are inherently volatile, and to see a decline following 2 strong quarters of growth in manufacturing was not out of the ordinary. Manufacturing confidence remains relatively upbeat, with the high AUD/NZD providing support to many NZ manufacturing exporters. In addition, recovering NZ demand was expected to provide further support for domesticallyfocused manufactures. Construction activity is expected to decline 6% over QII, led by a sharp 12% drop in residential construction. The extent of the decline was surprising. However, we expect residential construction activity to begin to stabilise over the second half of 2011. Dwelling consents have started to show tentative signs of recovery. In addition, from 2012 onwards reconstruction activity in Canterbury should see residential construction increase around 50% from current lows. Growth expected to pick up after QII blip. The recent weakness in certain sectors highlights that the underlying pace of recovery may be more modest than initially thought . Nonetheless, despite the blip in activity over QII, the economy continues to gradually recovery. Over the second half of 2011, the Rugby World Cup will provide a boost to activity and confidence. Then from mid-2012, reconstruction activity will augment the gradual underlying recovery. RBNZ remains optimistic on the domestic growth outlook, but has revised down its growth forecasts based on the weaker global outlook and a higher NZ dollar assumption. The blip in QII activity reduces some of the urgency for OCR increases. This allows the RBNZ to take more time to assess the impacts of the Eurozone debt crisis and slowing global growth on the NZ economy. . Increases in the OCR are now largely dependent on the global outlook, and specifically developments in Europe. The key to the timing is when the European financial crisis dies down sufficiently (assuming it does that before triggering another global crisis!). While there is much uncertainty about both the timing and size of the first OCR increase, for now we see a 50 basis point OCR increase in
A griculture
Fo rest/Fish/M ining
M anufacturing
Elec/Gas/Water
Co nstructio n
Retail Trade
Finance
Go vernment
Educatio n etc
% p.a.
OCR FORECASTS
Source: CBA
% p.a.
RBNZ sidelined by offshore risks, but local flat spot reduces urgency.
INTERBANK FUNDING PRESSURES (spread between interbank rates and expected policy rates)
200
Source: Bloomberg
E uro a re a
1 50
1 00 NZ 50
12
Economics: Perspective
March as the most likely scenario. Beyond that, we continue to expect 25bp increases at the subsequent meetings to an OCR peak of 4%.
Chris Tennent-Brown FX Economist T. +612 9117 1378 E. chris.tennent-brown@cba.com.au
13
Economics: Perspective
RBNZ Governor Bollard speaks at a Euromoney conference in New York RBA Deputy Governor Battellino speaks at a Euromoney conference in New York GDP QII q%ch y%ch 0.8 1.4 0.5 1.7 0.1 1.3
AU AU AU AU
RBA's Lowe speaks at Australian economic forum in Sydney ABS announces further changes to Australian CPI Conference board leading index Financial Stability Review Jul % -0.8 ~ ~
CH
Sep
Index
14
Economics: Perspective
Tue 20 Sep 06:45 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 10:00 10:00 13:30 13:30 13:30 13:30 16:30 Wed 21 Sep ~ 00:01 09:30 09:30 12:00 12:00 15:00 19:15 Thu 22 Sep 10:00 10:00 11:00 13:30 13:30 13:30 15:00 15:00 15:00 Fri 23 Sep 15.00 08:30 08:30 09:00 09:00 09:00 18.30 21.30 Sat 24 Sep Sun 25 Sep 15.00 15.00 SZ GE SZ SZ SZ GE EC CA CA US US CA GE UK UK UK CA CA US US EC SZ UK CA CA US EC US US US SZ GE EC EC EC US EC US US SECO September 2011 economic forecasts Producer prices Trade balance Exports real Imports real ZEW survey (current situation) ZEW survey (econ. sentiment) Leading indicators Wholesale sales Housing starts Building permits Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Aug Jul Aug Aug m%ch CHF bn m%ch m%ch Index Index m%ch m%ch 000 000 0.7 2.8 -3.0 0.1 53.5 -40.0 0.2 0.2 604.0 597.0 0.1 ~ ~ ~ 37.5 -37.6 ~ 0.3 590.0 588.0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Bank of Canada Governor Carney Speaks in Saint John, New Brunswick Germanys Budget Committee has final meeting on Greece, EFSF Nationwide consumer confidence Aug Index 49.0 48.0 ~
Bank of England releases Monetary Policy Committee minutes from the September meeting Public finances (PSNCR) CPI Bank Canada CPI core Existing home sales FOMC rate decision Industrial new orders s.a. Credit Suisse ZEW survey (expectations) CBI trends total orders Retail sales Retail sales less autos Initial jobless and continuing claims Consumer confidence Leading indicators House price index Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Jul Sep Sep Jul Jul Sep Sep A Aug Jul bn y%ch y%ch mn % m%ch Index Index m%ch m%ch 000 Index m%ch m%ch -5.6 2.7 1.6 4.7 0.25 -0.9 -71.4 1 0.7 -0.1 ~ -16.5 0.5 0.9 ~ 2.9 1.6 4.8 0.25 ~ ~ ~ -0.3 0.2 ~ -17.5 0.1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0.25 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
International Monetary Fund World Bank hold annual meeting Swiss National Bank publishes quarterly bulletin PMI manufacturing PMI composite PMI manufacturing PMI services Feds Dudley to speak on panel in Washington ECBs Trichet speaking in Washington International Monetary Fund World Bank hold annual meeting International Monetary Fund World Bank hold annual meeting Sep A Sep A Sep A Sep A Index Index Index Index 50.9 50.7 49.0 51.5 50.5 50.5 49.0 51.0 ~ ~ ~ ~
15
Economics: Perspective
NZ Consumer Confidence, QIII, Index (112 prev) Consumer confidence has generally held up in recent months. While the Christchurch earthquakes in June saw a drop in sentiment in July, there was a rebound in the following month. The general improvement in household sector conditions has helped to support consumer confidence. A recovery in the labour market is taking place, and this is starting to flow through to a recovery in wage growth. Meanwhile, recent housing market data points to a gradual recovery in housing market activity taking place. With more households indicating now was a good time to purchase a major household item, retail spending improved over the first half of 2011. Nonetheless, with household debt levels still at high levels and the global risks escalating in recent months, a degree of caution is likely to remain in the household sector. Tuesday 20 September AU RBA September Board Meeting Minutes In contrast to the August meeting, the RBA board is unlikely to have considered raising interest rates in September. The post-meeting statement made it clear that the RBA is assessing the potential risks to the Australian growth and inflation outlook from the current global financial market turmoil. We expect the minutes to highlight the RBAs thinking on the potential linkages between current market uncertainty and the outlook for domestic growth and inflation. The RBA has been enunciating a wait and see approach to the unfolding troubles in Europe. The minutes may lay out some clear markers on what the RBA sees as benchmarks for progress towards a resolution. The RBAs bi-annual Financial Stability Review will be released next week as well, and is likely to have a significant focus on the European banking and sovereign situation. Wednesday 21 September NZ Current Account Balance, QII, NZD mn, (f) 600 (-97 prev) NZ Current Account to GDP Ratio, QII, %, (f) -4.0 (-4.2 prev) We expect a current account deficit of $600 million in QII, bringing the annual deficit back to 4% of GDP. In seasonally-adjusted terms, the deficit is likely to be unchanged from the previous quarter at $1.7 billion. Underpinning the QII deficit is an improvement in the goods balance. Export receipts surged 4.5%, underpinned by strong prices for meat and dairy and a lift in manufactured exports. Meanwhile we expect the services balance to deteriorate, weighed by lower export receipts as visitor arrivals were weak over the quarter. Over QI, the income deficit was reduced, due to reduced earnings on foreign-owned NZ companies as a result of insurance-industry losses arising from the Canterbury earthquake. We expect further realisation of losses will weigh on foreign earnings in QII, although to a lesser extent than QI.
1 50 1 40 1 30 1 20 10 1
1 00 90 80
Source: Roy M organ,West pac-M cDermott M iller survey
1 00 90 80 70
% 8
% 8
CBA (f)
Mkt pricing 15/9/2011 2 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 2
$b
-4
-4
-8 T o tal -1 2
-8
-1 2
-1 6
-1 6
Source: St ats NZ
M ar-03
James McIntyre Economist T. +612 9118 1100 E. james.mcintyre@cba.com.au Chris Tennent-Brown FX Economist T. +612 9117 1378 E. chris.tennent-brown@cba.com.au
16
Economics: Perspective
Thursday 22 September NZ GDP, QII, q/y%ch, (f) 0.1/1.4 (0.8/1.4 prev) We expect GDP growth of just 0.1% over QII. This follows a robust 0.8% increase over the first quarter of 2011. The strength of the QI increase was particularly impressive given the disruption caused by the February earthquake. Over QII, we expect growth in retail spending and housing relatedactivity will be offset by declines in construction manufacturing and wholesale trade. Despite the expectation of weak growth over QII, the underlying story remains buoyant, although perhaps less upbeat than initially thought following the QI result. Over the first half of the year, the economy probably grew at an average quarterly pace of 0.4-0.5%, which is consistent with where business confidence was prevailing. In addition, the outlook for the second half of 2011 remains solid. Many of the industries that will be underpinning the QII decline are unlikely to remain weak and we expect to see continued gradual recovery in the household sector and business investment.
NZ GDP GROWTH
(per quarter, seas adj)
(f)
-1 .5
James McIntyre Economist T. +612 9118 1100 E. james.mcintyre@cba.com.au Chris Tennent-Brown FX Economist T. +612 9117 1378 E. chris.tennent-brown@cba.com.au
17
Economics: Perspective
International
Tuesday 20 September SZ Trade Balance, Aug, CHF bn, (2.81 prev) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Swiss government remain concerns about the impact the strong CHF is having on the domestic economy, particularly on exports. Exports play an important role in the Swiss economy, equating to approximately 58% of GDP. Driven by the downside risks to the domestic outlook, brought on by the CHF strength, the SNB has acted in recent weeks, via policy easing and setting a minimum level for the EUR/CHF. Despite the moves by the SNB, headwinds remain for the Swiss trade sector. Approximately 20% of Switzerlands exports are sent to the heavily indebted nations in Europe, (65% of exports are sent to the Eurozone). The fiscal austerity measures in some of these economies, coupled with a broader economic slowdown, are likely to act as a headwind to Swiss export growth in coming months. In the near-term, Swiss trade is likely to continue to experience downside risks because of the lingering effects of the CHF outperformance, while a slowing domestic economy is expected to weigh on import demand. Wednesday 21 September JP Merchandise Trade Balance, August, bn, (72.5 prev) The March natural disaster negatively impacted Japanese production and exports in QII, but the situation appears to be improving. Having recorded trade deficits in April and May, Japan posted a surprise 70.7bn surplus in June, and a 72.5bn trade surplus was recorded in July. Despite the recovery, exports were still down 3.3% on year-ago levels in July. We expect exports to gradually recover as the supply chain issues are resolved. However, given the extent of the damage caused by the recent events, and the ongoing logistical issues, it is likely that Japanese exports will continue to be hampered in August. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has indicated the domestic economy is unlikely to commence its recovery until later in the year.
Index 140
% 35
SWISS EXPORTS
(% by destination)
% 35
% sent to Germany 28 % sent to indebted Europe 21 % sent to nonEurope 14 % sent to US 7 Dec-95 Oct-98 Aug-01 Jun-04 Apr-07 7 Feb-10 Nov-12 14 21 28
Index 140
120
120
100
100
80 Industrial Production (3MMA) Base 2005 = 100 60 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11
80
60
Wednesday 21 September UK Bank of England September Meeting Minutes As expected the Bank of England (BoE) left the bank rate and its target for asset purchases unchanged at the September meeting. The UK economy is clearly still in a soft patch at present and has yet to show signs of meaningful re-acceleration. With a significant negative output gap still prevalent, there is no reason to expect any move towards policy tightening any time soon. Indeed, to the extent that there will be any near-term shift in bias, it is much more likely to be towards easier monetary policy settings and additional QE. As always this will be data dependent, conditional on the evolution of the economy and subject to various risks. Further asset purchases by the BoE are not our central case assumption at this stage, but the risks are increasing. The MPC minutes will reveal whether there was a further shift towards more QE on the Monetary Policy Committee.
UK INTEREST RATES
10 % 10 %
8 Mortgage rate 6
Joseph Capurso Currency Strategist T. +612 9118 1106 E. joseph.capurso@cba.com.au Peter Dragicevich FX Economist T. +612 9118 1107 E. peter.dragicevich@cba.com.au Chris Tennent-Brown FX Economist T. +612 9117 1378 E. chris.tennent-brown@cba.com.au
18
Economics: Perspective
Wednesday 21 September CA CPI, Aug, m/y%ch, (0.2/2.7 prev) CA Bank Canada Core CPI, Aug, m/y%ch, (0.2/1.6 prev) Canadian consumer prices lifted 0.2% in July, after a 0.7% fall in June. Annual inflation has eased from a peak of 3.7% in May to 2.7% in July. The May result was the highest annual rate of inflation since September 2008. The recent high headline CPI was largely due to higher energy and food prices, and the transitory impact of provisional tax increases. Falling fuel costs has helped lower headline CPI inflation since May, with gasoline prices falling 3.7% in June. In July, the impact of provincial sales tax increases faded from the annual result, and mortgage costs declined. Over June and July automobile costs have also fallen. The Bank of Canada (BoC) moderated its inflation outlook at the September policy review. The BoC expects the recent negative global developments will dampen domestic resource utilization and inflationary pressures. The BoC expects CPI inflation to continue to moderate, and core inflation is also expected to remain wellcontained. Wednesday 21 September US FOMC Policy Meeting, Sep, % (f) 0.25 (0.25 prev) Following soft growth in the first half of 2011, the US economy has deteriorated further. We expect the FOMC to deliver further policy stimulus to support the economy in the form of Operation Twist. Operation Twist refers to the Federal Reserve (Fed) selling its shortterm holdings of US treasuries to buy long-term Treasuries. The economy is stimulated because corporates and households borrowing interest rates are linked to long-term US treasury yields. If the FOMC determines the US economy requires further support, the FOMC may also cut the interest rate paid to banks on their excess reserves to encourage banks to lend.
2.50 %
3 % 5
CANADA INFLATION
BoC's 1-3% total Inflation target range for CPI
% 5
1 Core CPI
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Thursday 22 September CA Retail Sales, July, m%ch, (0.7 prev) CA Retail Sales Less Autos, July, m%ch, (-0.1 prev) A lift in auto sales helped boost overall retail sales in June. Retail sales (excluding autos) contracted 0.1% in the month of June, and grew by only 0.3% in the quarter. Canadian consumer confidence dropped for the fourth consecutive month in August. The lack of confidence can in part be attributed to uncertainty about job prospects. Employment growth has slowed since April, and other economic indicators have weakened recently, and this may be contributing to the caution. High fuel costs have also been an issue for consumers, although prices have eased recently. We expect consumer caution to continue in the coming months, given the global uncertainties, and softening consumer sentiment.
Index 150
% 15
100
75 Consumer Confidence (rebased Aug 2002 = 100, lhs) Jul-04 Jan-07 Jul-09 Jan-12
50 Jan-02
-5
Joseph Capurso Currency Strategist T. +612 9118 1106 E. joseph.capurso@cba.com.au Peter Dragicevich FX Economist T. +612 9118 1107 E. peter.dragicevich@cba.com.au Chris Tennent-Brown FX Economist T. +612 9117 1378 E. chris.tennent-brown@cba.com.au
19
Economics: Perspective
Friday 23 September EZ PMI Services, Sep A, Index, (51.5 prev) EZ PMI Manufacturing, Sep A, Index, (49.0 prev) EZ PMI Composite, Sep A, Index, (50.7 prev)
60 Index 70
MANUFACTURING PMIs
Index 70
Germany 60 Global 50 Eurozone 40 Italy France 30 Apr-06 Feb-08 Nov-09 Sep-11 30 Greece 40 50
Eurozone PMI indices dropped in August as the financial market stress weighed on the outlook for the service and manufacturing sectors. The manufacturing PMI for Eurozone dropped to 49 in August from 50.4 in July. A reading below 50 indicates contraction for the sector. The German Manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory last month, but the indicators for French and Italian manufacturing printed below 50, suggesting future contraction for manufacturing in these countries. The Eurozone Services PMI is faring slightly better, printing at 51.5 in August. But the reading has drifted significantly lower from its peak back in March of 57.2 Flash estimates for September manufacturing and services PMIs are published for Germany, France and the Euro-zone on 23 September. Based on the ongoing turmoil in financial markets during September, further downside moves look possible.
Joseph Capurso Currency Strategist T. +612 9118 1106 E. joseph.capurso@cba.com.au Peter Dragicevich FX Economist T. +612 9118 1107 E. peter.dragicevich@cba.com.au Chris Tennent-Brown FX Economist T. +612 9117 1378 E. chris.tennent-brown@cba.com.au
20
Economics: Perspective
Monetary Policy
OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES
%
NZ 8 Australia 6 6
4.5 Cash rate 4.5
% 5.5
% 5.5
8
5.0
5.0
UK
4.0
4.0
3.5
Source: Reuters
12 months ahead
3.5
3.0
Jan 11
CBA View The QII CPI confirmed the inflation trend has turned up. Rate rises are likely. We expect a rate rise in February. The cash rate is expected to reach 5.50% by 2013. Given the loss of momentum in the US economy, particularly in the labour market, we expect the Fed to maintain the size of its balance sheet until early 2013. The first Fed funds hike is not expected until mid 2013. The recent deterioration in Eurozone economic indicators suggests that the ECB will pause its process of monetary policy normalisation. We expect the ECB to remain on hold until QII 2012. The stance of the MPC has shifted; elevated inflation does not appear overly concerning. Given the J subdued outlook for the UK 1 economy, we expect the BoE to remain on hold until QIII 2012. The escalating debt crisis in Eurozone is dominating the RBNZs outlook, and we expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR on hold until March next year. We expect a 50bpt OCR increase in March. Softness in the US economy is likely to effect the Canadian economy given the strong trade ties. We expect the BoC to remain on hold until mid 2012 before it embarks on a slow and steady removal of policy accommodation. In response to the recent natural disasters, the Bank of Japan has implemented further quantitative easing measures. Monetary policy in Japan is likely to remain accommodative for some time.
US (FOMC)
21 September, 2011
Sep 11 0-0.25% Dec 11 0-0.25% Mar 12 0-0.25% Jun 12 0-0.25%
Eurozone (ECB)
6 October, 2011
Sep 11 1.50% Dec 11 1.50% Mar 12 1.50% Jun 12 1.75%
UK (MPC)
6 October, 2011
Sep 11 0.50% Dec 11 0.50% Mar 12 0.50% Jun 12 0.50%
NZ (RBNZ)
27 October, 2011
Sep 11 2.50% Dec 11 2.50% Mar 12 3.00% Jun 12 3.50%
Canada (BoC)
25 October, 2011
Sep 11 1.00% Dec 11 1.00% Mar 12 1.00% Jun 12 1.25%
Japan (BoJ)
7 October, 2011
Sep 11 0-0.10% Dec 11 0-0.10% Mar 12 0-0.10% Jun 12 0-0.10%
21
Economics: Perspective
Forecasts - Economic
Economic Activity Private final demand Of which: Household spending Dwelling investment Business investment Public final demand Domestic final demand Inventories (contrib to GDP) GNE Exports Imports Net exports (contrib to GDP) GDP Prices & Wages CPI Underlying CPI AWOTE WPI Real h/hold disposable income Labour Market Employment Unemployment rate External Accounts Current Account: $bn % of GDP 6.4 4.7 1.2 15.8 4.2 5.9 0.0 5.9 4.0 14.6 -2.1 3.8 0.1 0.2 -1.9 1.4 3.6 0.9 -0.4 0.4 2.6 -3.3 1.4 1.4 0.8 2.1 2.1 -4.9 6.7 2.1 0.3 2.4 5.3 5.1 0.1 2.3 3.5 3.3 2.6 6.2 4.5 3.8 0.4 4.1 0.2 10.7 -2.4 1.9 4.8 2.8 2.2 13.4 1.5 4.0 -0.2 3.8 8.3 9.3 -0.4 3.5 5.2 3.1 -1.1 14.2 -0.1 4.0 0.1 4.0 7.6 8.6 -0.4 3.7 3.6 3.4 -3.0 8.5 3.7 3.7 -0.4 3.2 2.2 6.9 -0.9 2.6 7.1 5.5 3.0 16.1 3.4 6.3 0.6 6.9 2.4 12.2 -2.0 4.6 3.1 1.9 2.1 9.6 6.3 3.8 -0.3 3.5 4.7 11.5 -1.5 2.6 -0.7 1.0 -4.2 -5.4 1.8 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 2.6 -9.0 2.7 1.4 2.2 2.8 4.2 -0.1 9.1 3.8 0.4 4.2 5.7 13.7 -1.6 2.7 4.6 3.1 3.3 11.6 1.8 3.9 0.4 4.2 -0.1 10.1 -2.4 2.0 5.0 2.9 0.0 14.1 0.5 3.9 -0.3 3.6 10.4 8.6 0.0 4.0
3.0 4.2
1.6 4.9
1.4 5.5
2.9 5.1
0.9 5.2
1.8 5.0
2.6 4.8
3.1 4.4
2.8 4.3
0.7 5.6
2.7 5.2
1.8 5.1
1.2 5.2
-74.5 -6.3
-38.5 -3.1
-53.4 -4.2
-33.8 -2.4
-21.6 -1.4
-23.1 -1.4
-55.2 -5.3
-70.3 -6.2
-55.3 -4.5
-52.9 -4.2
-36.0 -2.7
-29.6 -2.1
-21.5 -1.4
22
Economics: Perspective
Forecasts - Financial
Interest Rates End Period Cash Rate 6.75 7.25 7.25 7.00 4.25 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.75 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.00 5.25 5.25 90-day Bank Bill 7.24 7.86 7.84 7.32 4.15 3.14 3.19 3.38 4.28 4.49 4.92 5.01 5.04 4.93 5.03 4.80 4.90 5.10 5.20 5.40 5.50 180-day Bank Bill 7.36 7.96 7.96 7.04 0.00 3.06 3.31 3.78 4.47 4.76 5.00 5.20 5.23 5.01 5.07 4.70 5.00 5.20 5.30 5.50 5.60 3-year Bond 6.80 6.16 6.72 5.07 3.29 3.37 4.75 5.04 5.06 5.39 4.56 4.82 5.30 5.07 4.78 3.80 4.50 4.65 4.90 5.05 5.15 10-year Bond 6.33 6.05 6.45 5.40 3.99 4.42 5.52 5.36 5.64 5.78 5.09 4.96 5.55 5.49 5.21 4.40 4.70 4.70 4.80 4.90 5.00 USD versus AUD JPY Exchange Rates EUR GBP NZD
Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12
0.88 0.91 0.96 0.79 0.70 0.69 0.81 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.84 0.97 1.02 1.03 1.07 1.03 1.04 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.08
111.7 99.7 106.2 106.1 90.7 99.0 96.4 89.7 93.0 93.4 88.4 83.5 81.1 83.1 80.6 76.8 77.0 77.0 77.0 78.0 79.0
1.46 1.58 1.58 1.41 1.40 1.33 1.40 1.46 1.43 1.35 1.22 1.36 1.34 1.42 1.45 1.39 1.39 1.43 1.44 1.44 1.43
1.98 1.98 1.99 1.78 1.46 1.43 1.65 1.60 1.62 1.52 1.49 1.57 1.56 1.60 1.61 1.58 1.60 1.62 1.64 1.64 1.62
0.77 0.79 0.76 0.67 0.58 0.56 0.65 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.68 0.73 0.78 0.76 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.84
Forecast
23
Economics: Perspective
Please view our website at www.research.commbank.com.au. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 ("the Bank") and its subsidiaries, including Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814 ("CommSec"), Commonwealth Australia Securities LLC, CBA Europe Ltd and Global Markets Research, are domestic or foreign entities or business areas of the Commonwealth Bank Group of Companies (CBGOC). CBGOC and their directors, employees and representatives are referred to in this Appendix as the Group. This report is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments. This report has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation and capacity to bear loss, knowledge, experience or needs of any specific person who may receive this report. No member of the Group does, or is required to, assess the appropriateness or suitability of the report for recipients who therefore do not benefit from any regulatory protections in this regard. All recipients should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness and suitability of the information, having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs, and, if necessary seek the appropriate professional, foreign exchange or financial advice regarding the content of this report. We believe that the information in this report is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the information available at the time of its compilation, but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made in this report. Any opinions, conclusions or recommendations set forth in this report are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions, conclusions or recommendations expressed elsewhere by the Group. We are under no obligation to, and do not, update or keep current the information contained in this report. The Group does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report. Any valuations, projections and forecasts contained in this report are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Different assumptions and estimates could result in materially different results. The Group does not represent or warrant that any of these valuations, projections or forecasts, or any of the underlying assumptions or estimates, will be met. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The Group has provided, provides, or seeks to provide, investment banking, capital markets and/or other services, including financial services, to the companies described in the report and their associates. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject any entity within the Group to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to the Group. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior written permission of the appropriate entity within the Group. In the case of certain products, the Bank or one of its related bodies corporate is or may be the only market maker. The Group, its agents, associates and clients have or have had long or short positions in the securities or other financial instruments referred to herein, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales in such interests or securities as principal or agent, including selling to or buying from clients on a principal basis and may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with this report. US Investors: If you would like to speak to someone regarding the subject securities described in this report, please contact Commonwealth Australia Securities LLC (the US Broker-Dealer), a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the Exchange Act) and a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) at 1 (212) 336-7737. This report was prepared, approved and published by Global Markets Research, a division of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 ("the Bank") and distributed in the U.S. by the US Broker-Dealer. The Bank is not registered as a broker-dealer under the Exchange Act and is not a member of FINRA or any U.S. self-regulatory organization. Commonwealth Australia Securities LLC (US Broker-Dealer) is a wholly owned, but non-guaranteed, subsidiary of the Bank, organized under the laws of the State of Delaware, USA, with limited liability. The US Broker-Dealer is not authorized to engage in the underwriting of securities and does not make markets or otherwise engage in any trading in the securities of the subject companies described in our research reports. The US Broker-Dealer is the distributor of this research report in the United States under Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and accepts responsibility for its content. Global Markets Research and the US Broker-Dealer are affiliates under common control. Computation of 1% beneficial ownership is based upon the methodology used to compute ownership under Section 13(d) of the Exchange Act. The securities discussed in this research report may not be eligible for sale in all States or countries, and such securities may not be suitable for all types of investors. Offers and sales of securities discussed in this research report, and the distribution of this report, may be made only in States and countries where such securities are exempt from registration or qualification or have been so registered or qualified for offer and sale, and in accordance with applicable broker-dealer and agent/salesman registration or licensing requirements. The preparer of this research report is employed by Global Markets Research and is not registered or qualified as a research analyst, representative, or associated person under the rules of FINRA, the New York Stock Exchange, Inc., any other U.S. self-regulatory organization, or the laws, rules or regulations of any State. European Investors: This report is published, approved and distributed in the UK by the Bank and by CBA Europe Ltd (CBAE). The Bank and CBAE are both registered in England (No. BR250 and 05687023 respectively) and authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). This report does not purport to be a complete statement or summary. For the purpose of the FSA rules, this report and related services are not intended for retail customers and are not available to them. The products and services referred to in this report may put your capital at risk. Investments, persons, matters and services referred to in this report may not be regulated by the FSA. CBAE can clarify where FSA regulations apply. Singapore Investors: This report is distributed in Singapore by Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Singapore Branch (company number F03137W) and is made available only for persons who are Accredited Investors as defined in the Singapore Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisers Act. It has not been prepared for, and must not be distributed to or replicated in any form, to anyone who is not an Accredited Investor. Hong Kong Investors: This report was prepared, approved and published by the Bank, and distributed in Hong Kong by the Bank's Hong Kong Branch. The Hong Kong Branch is a registered institution with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to carry out the Type 1 (Dealing in securities) and Type 4 (Advising on securities) regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. Investors should understand the risks in investments and that prices do go up as well as down, and in some cases may even become worthless. Research report on collective investment schemes which have not been authorized by the Securities and Futures Commission is not directed to, or intended for distribution in Hong Kong. All investors: Analyst Certification and Disclaimer: Each research analyst, primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the report. The analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personnel and other constituencies for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing, and interpreting market information. Directors or employees of the Group may serve or may have served as officers or directors of the subject company of this report. The compensation of analysts who prepared this report is determined exclusively by research management and senior management (not including investment banking). No inducement has been or will be received by the Group from the subject of this report or its associates to undertake the research or make the recommendations. The research staff responsible for this report receive a salary and a bonus that is dependent on a number of factors including their performance and the overall financial performance of the Group, including its profits derived from investment banking, sales and trading revenue. Unless agreed separately, we do not charge any fees for any information provided in this presentation. You may be charged fees in relation to the financial products or other services the Bank provides, these are set out in the relevant Financial Services Guide (FSG) and relevant Product Disclosure Statements (PDS). Our employees receive a salary and do not receive any commissions or fees. However, they may be eligible for a bonus payment from us based on a number of factors relating to their overall performance during the year. These factors include the level of revenue they generate, meeting client service standards and reaching individual sales portfolio targets. Our employees may also receive benefits such as tickets to sporting and cultural events, corporate promotional merchandise and other similar benefits. If you have a complaint, the Banks dispute resolution process can be accessed on 132221. Unless otherwise noted, all data is sourced from Australian Bureau of Statistics material (www.abs.gov.au).
24
Economics: Perspective
Research
Commodities Luke Mathews Lachlan Shaw Paul Hodsman, CFA Elise Aaternir Agri Commodities Mining & Energy Commodities Mining & Energy Commodities Mining & Energy Commodities Telephone +612 9118 1098 +613 9675 8618 +613 9675 8532 +613 9675 6202 Email Address luke.mathews@cba.com.au lachlan.shaw@cba.com.au paul.hodsman@cba.com.au elise.aaternir@cba.com.au
Economics Michael Blythe Michael Workman John Peters James McIntyre Chief Economist Senior Economist Senior Economist Economist
Telephone +612 9118 1101 +612 9118 1019 +612 9117 0112 +612 9118 1100
Fixed Income Adam Donaldson Philip Brown Alex Stanley Michael Bors Steve Shoobert Winnie Chee Tally Dewan Kevin Ward Head of Debt Research Fixed Income Quantitative Strategist Associate Analyst, Fixed Income Credit Research Analyst Credit Research Analyst Securitised Product Quantitative Analyst Database Manager
Telephone +612 9118 1095 +612 9118 1090 +612 9118 1125 +612 9118 1108 +612 9118 1096 +612 9118 1104 +612 9118 1105 +612 9118 1960
Email Address adam.donaldson@cba.com.au philip.brown@cba.com.au alex.stanley@cba.com.au borsma@cba.com.au steve.shoobert@cba.com.au winnie.chee@cba.com.au tally.dewan@cba.com.au kevin.ward@cba.com.au
Foreign Exchange and International Economics Richard Grace Joseph Capurso Peter Dragicevich Andy Ji Chris Tennent-Brown Martin McMahon
Telephone
Chief Currency Strategist & Head of International Economics +612 9117 0080 Currency Strategist FX Economist Asian Currency Strategist FX Economist Economist Europe +612 9118 1106 +612 9118 1107 +65 6349 7056 +612 9117 1378 +44 20 7710 3918
Delivery Channels & Publications Monica Eley Ai-Quynh Mac Internet/Intranet Information Services
New Zealand Nick Tuffley Jane Turner Christina Leung ASB Chief Economist Economist Economist
Telephone +649 301 5659 +649 301 5660 +649 301 5661
Sales
Institutional Syd FX Credit Japan Desk Melb Telephone +612 9117 0190 +612 9117 0341 +612 9117 0020 +612 9117 0025 +613 9675 6815 +613 9675 7495 +613 9675 6618 +613 9675 7757 Lon FX Corporate HK Sing NY +44 20 7329 6266 +44 20 7710 3905 +852 2844 7538 +65 6349 7077 +1212 336 7739 Debt & Derivatives +44 20 7329 6444 Corporate NSW VIC SA WA QLD NZ Metals Desk Agri Desk (Corp) Agri Desk Telephone +612 9117 0377 +612 9675 7737 +618 8206 4155 +618 9482 6044 +617 3015 4525 +64 9375 5738 +612 9117 0069 +612 9117 0157 +612 9117 0145 Equities Syd Asia Lon/Eu NY Telephone +612 9118 1446 +613 9675 6967 +44 20 7710 3573 +1212 336 7749
25