Altos Research September 21, 2011

Altos Research Mid-Cities Report

Real-Time Housing Market Update September, 2011
Dr Ray Stantz: My parents left me that house. I was born there. Dr. Peter Venkman: You're not gonna lose the house, everybody has three mortgages nowadays. -Ghostbusters

Three mortgages would have been extreme, even in the boom days of the 2000s. Nonetheless, over-leveraged real estate had a profound effect on todays housing market. Were not out of the woods yet and the market trends tell us were settling in for a long, cold winter. Welcome to the fourth installment of the Altos Research Mid-Cities Report. The Mid-Cities Report provides a glimpse into real estate market trends for mid-sized US markets not commonly reported in the media. This month prices decreased in 13 of the 20 markets, and inventory decreased in 19 of the 20 markets. The market trends indicate a further cooling of the market as we approach the fall. Our Altos 20-City Composite National Report confirmed the loss of momentum from summer market activity earlier this month. Transaction statistics published by S&P/Case-Shiller will show the same loss of momentum in a few months. The 90-day prices were flattening last month and the declining curve is becoming more pronounced. Figure 1 illustrates the price trend for the past twelve months. The 90-day inventory flattened last month and has also started to decline, as illustrated in Figure 2.

Real-Time National Housing Market Update Copyright Altos Research

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Altos Research September 21, 2011

Figure 1: Prices in the Mid-Cities Composite flattened last month and are currently trending downward. The Altos 20-City Composite is reporting similar market behavior, which indicates a cooling of the housing market.

Figure 2: Inventory has gone from flattening to declining as the market cools. The annual high point was the result of the inventory increase in the summer of 2010, with the inventory increase in 2011 being much smaller from the seasonal low point.

Key takeaways from the markets covered in this report: The median price was $255,093 in mid-September, down from $256,021 in mid-August (-0.36%). For comparison, the Altos 20City composite median price was down to $447,679 in August from $450,176 in July. The leaders in the three-month price increases are Durham (5.69%), Boulder (4.40%), and Reno (2.93%). Durham had the largest one-month increase in median price, with a 1.68% increase to $280,313.

Real-Time National Housing Market Update Copyright Altos Research

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Altos Research September 21, 2011 Eleven markets had decreasing prices at the three-month level. The three largest decreases were Naples (-3.15%), Pittsburgh (2.76%), and Charleston (-1.20%). The largest one-month decrease in inventory was Naples, with a 6.93% decrease. The largest one month increase in inventory was Boulder, with a 1.57% increase. Boulder was one of two composite markets that didnt experience a decrease in inventory last month.

Trends: September Home Prices

The mid-cities composite experienced a decrease in median prices through mid-September. The biggest decreases were in Pittsburgh (1.68%), Naples (-1.22%), and Charleston (-0.65%). The price gain over a three-month period was in Durham, with a 5.69% increase.

Altos Research Price Composite

MSA July '11 August '11 Sept 11 % Change From Last Month % Change Over Three Months

Mid-Cities Composite Albuquerque Austin Baltimore Boise Boulder Charleston Dover Durham

$256,228 $231,765 $284,955 $367,630 $167,367 $420,724 $340,828 $215,953 $265,215

$256,021 $232,005 $284,874 $367,707 $169,089 $434,329 $338,950 $214,450 $275,681

$255,093 $231,992 $285,186 $366,453 $169,018 $439,219 $336,743 $213,706 $280,313

-0.36% -0.01% 0.11% -0.34% -0.04% 1.13% -0.65% -0.35% 1.68%

-0.44% 0.10% 0.08% -0.32% 0.99% 4.40% -1.20% -1.04% 5.69%

Real-Time National Housing Market Update Copyright Altos Research

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Altos Research September 21, 2011

MSA

July '11

August '11

Sept 11

% Change From Last Month

% Change Over Three Months

Honolulu Jacksonville Memphis Naples Nashville Orlando Pittsburgh Reno Sacramento San Antonio St. Louis Ventura County

$751,336 $221,467 $166,651 $547,480 $236,883 $228,524 $163,882 $235,783 $244,175 $219,994 $184,177 $555,371

$751,459 $221,792 $166,754 $536,770 $235,975 $229,722 $162,079 $239,095 $246,263 $220,090 $183,819 $556,548

$752,703 $221,029 $166,588 $530,243 $234,956 $231,203 $159,364 $242,699 $247,659 $219,941 $182,637 $554,155

0.17% -0.34% -0.10% -1.22% -0.43% 0.64% -1.68% 1.51% 0.57% -0.07% -0.64% -0.43%

0.18% -0.20% -0.04% -3.15% -0.81% 1.17% -2.76% 2.93% 1.43% -0.02% -0.84% -0.22%

Trends: Housing Supply

The inventory in the mid-cities composite was down this month, with 18 of 20 markets showing decreased inventory. Last month, there was a 1.79% decrease in inventory. Over a three-month period, inventory has decreased 2.08%. The Altos national composite also showed decreased inventory over onemonth and three-month time periods. Inventory decreased 0.55% over one-month and 0.71% over three-months.

Real-Time National Housing Market Update Copyright Altos Research

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Altos Research September 21, 2011

MSA

July '11

August '11

Sept 11

% Change From Last Month -1.79% -0.35% -3.50% -1.67% -2.54% 1.57% -0.28% -0.72% -5.77% 0.00% -1.63% -1.95% -6.93% -1.65% -2.78% -0.94% -0.09% -0.56% -1.74% -1.30% -1.35%

% Change Over Three Months -2.08% 0.12% -3.49% -1.16% -4.37% 4.35% 0.82% -1.09% -10.65% 2.29% -3.24% -2.69% -11.56% -1.63% -5.19% -0.51% 1.52% 0.08% -1.42% -0.76% -1.57%

Mid-Cities Composite Albuquerque Austin Baltimore Boise Boulder Charleston Dover Durham Honolulu Jacksonville Memphis Naples Nashville Orlando Pittsburgh Reno Sacramento San Antonio St. Louis Ventura County

159,037 5173 11059 10999 4354 689 6672 1275 3769 1760 10312 8725 5125 13596 10622 12781 3488 12082 12277 20959 3321

158,555 5198 11059 11055 4272 708 6745 1270 3574 1800 10143 8659 4870 13600 10359 12836 3545 12159 12316 21073 3314

155,725 5179 10673 10871 4163 719 6726 1261 3368 1800 9978 8490 4533 13375 10072 12716 3541 12091 12102 20799 3269

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Altos Research September 21, 2011

Methodology
The Altos Research Mid-Cities Housing Report gives you unfettered, upto-the-minute data relative to housing market conditions in mid-sized markets around the nation. The Altos report is comprised of data that can be used now, not aging, months-old statistics that mean nothing in a market that's in a constant state of flux. Altos Research uses metrics associated with active residential property listings to give you real-time information. We give you the market as it is, not as it was. Each "market" measured is equivalent to the Census Bureau's Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) dominated by the city listed. Properties analyzed in the data include repeat sales of single-family homes, but not condominiums, town homes, or new construction homes. The Altos Mid-Cities Composite is based on single family homes in Albuquerque, Austin, Baltimore, Boise, Boulder, Charleston, Dover, Durham, Jacksonville, Honolulu, Memphis, Naples, Nashville, Orlando, Pittsburgh, Reno, Sacramento, St. Louis, San Antonio, and Ventura County, CA. For more information, check out www.altosresearch.com.

About Altos Research Altos Research, LLC is at the forefront of real-time real estate market research. Founded in 2005, Altos' pioneering technologies and information products serve investors, derivatives traders, as well as thousands of real estate professionals. The company publishes statistical reports and data analyses each week for over 20,000 zip codes in more than 200 metro markets around the county, including the 20 S&P/CaseShiller markets. Altos Research 280 Hope Street, First Floor Mountain View, CA 94041 888-819-7775 www.altosresearch.com info@altosresearch.com

Real-Time National Housing Market Update Copyright Altos Research

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