ISAF Violence Trends: AA G AA G

NATO
OTAN
ISAF Violence Trends

Unclassified Monthly Release
30 September 2011
A A G
NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC
Enemy-Initiated Attacks
Nationwide Monthly Attacks
4500
NATO
OTAN
4000
3500
Number of Incidents
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Definition: Enemy-initiated attacks comprise all enemy action (enemy-initiated direct fire, indirect fire, surface-to-air fire) and explosive hazard events, to include executed attacks only (improvised explosive device (IED) explosions / mine strikes). Data Source: Afghan Mission Network (AMN) Combined Information Data Network Exchange (CIDNE) Database, as of 29 Sep 2011.
ISAF Observations ANSF / ISAF and SOF operations continue to show marked gains in main effort areas. Nationwide, enemy-initiated attacks reported January through August 2011 are down 3 percent compared to 2010. ISAF had expected a 17 30 percent increase in enemyinitiated attacks for 2011 based, in part, on the increase in Combined Team force strength which included 10,000 to 25,000 more ISAF troops and 60,000 more ANSF troop/police in Afghanistan in 2011 compared to 2010.
DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more information becomes available.
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11
NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC
Nationwide Monthly Year-Over-Year Change
4500
Jun-Aug 2008 Jun-Aug 2009
NATO
OTAN
Jun-Aug 2010
Jun-Aug 2011
+51%
3500
+93%
+86%
-17%
Number of Incidents
2500
1500
Increase from Year Before
500
-500
Decrease from Year Before

-1500
Definition: This chart shows the year-over-year change in enemy-initiated attacks (EIA). The total number of EIAs is shown in the background (light blue). The red bars represent an increase of monthly enemy-initiated attacks compared to the same month the year before; blue bars represent a decrease. The changes over three month periods are depicted at the top of the chart. Data Source: Afghan Mission Network (AMN) Combined Information Data Network Exchange (CIDNE) Database, as of 29 Sep 2011.
ISAF Observations Enemy-initiated attacks for the period June August 2011 are 17 percent lower than the same period in 2010. In 17 of the past 22 weeks through the week of 23 September, enemy-initiated attacks are lower than the same week in 2010. Since May of this year, enemy-initiated attacks are lower than the same month in 2010. We have not seen a decrease in year-over-year enemy-initiated attacks since at least 2007.
YoY Difference
-600 1000
YoY Difference
1200 -800
400
YoY Difference
-400 200 600 800
0
-200
-600
1000
1200
-800
400
-400 200 600 800

0
-200
-600
1000
1200
-800
400
-400 200 600 800

0
-200
RC E
RC S
RC SW
20% of Nationwide violence 39% of Nationwide violence
34% of Nationwide violence

YoY Difference
-600
YoY Difference
-600 1000
YoY Difference
-800 -400 -200
400 1000
1200
1200
-800
400
-400 200
0
-200
600
800
200
600
800
-600
1000
1200
-800
400
-400 200 600 800

0
-200
RC W
RC N
RC C
Less than 1%of Nationwide violence
Enemy-Initiated Attacks (EIA)
Monthly Year-Over-Year Change by RC (Jan 08 Aug 11)

Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11
ISAF Observations
The comparative charts use the
Data Source: Afghan Mission Network (AMN) Combined Information Data Network Exchange (CIDNE) Database, as of 29 Sep 2011.
4
same scale to allow a direct, intuitive comparison of the different magnitudes of monthly enemy-initiated attacks by Regional Command (RC). Marked success in RC Southwest: Attacks during the period June August 2011 are 40 percent lower than last year; some districts in the Central Helmand River Valley have seen reductions in violence of nearly 80 percent, particularly Marjeh, NadAli, and Garm Ser. This improvement in the security situation is attributable to successful comprehensive CIVILMILITARY counterinsurgency operations. Emerging success in RC South: Enemy-initiated attacks reported during the period June August 2011 were 10 percent lower than the same period last year. Continued challenges in RC East: Attacks continue to increase in RC East; 17 percent higher for the period June August 2011 compared to the same time period in 2010.
NATO
OTAN
Nationwide IED Activity

Executed Attacks
1000 Executed IED Attacks 900 800 700
Number of Attacks
NATO
OTAN
ISAF Observations
Insurgents continue to rely on IEDs to compensate for their degraded capacity. IED activity from June to August is 25 percent greater in 2011 than in 2010, while insurgent-initiated direct fire attacks decreased by 30 percent for the same period of time. Over 70 percent of insurgentcaused CIVCAS result from IED strikes. Year-to-date IED explosions have increased 5 percent compared to 2010. The rate of IEDs that are found and cleared without detonation is 55 percent of total planted IEDs, an improvement over last years rate of 45 percent. This improvement in finding / clearing IEDs is attributable to increased local national assistance (tips), improved counter-IED tactics, and increases in ANSF-led operations.
600 500 400 300 200
100
0
Definition: IED activity comprises explosive hazard events, to include executed attacks (improvised explosive device (IED) explosions / mine strikes) and attempted or potential attacks, such as IEDs that were found and cleared, premature IED detonations, or IED turn ins). Data Source: Afghan Mission Network (AMN) Combined Information Data Network Exchange (CIDNE) Database, as of 29 Sep 2011.
Monthly ISAF Casualties

WIA and KIA
900
NATO
OTAN
WIA
800 700
KIA
ISAF Observations
ISAF troops killed in action numbered 358 from January through August 2011, approximately 20 percent fewer than the same period in 2010. ISAF wounded casualties from January through August are approximately the same in 2011 as in 2010. Total killed and wounded from January through August have slightly decreased by 2 percent in 2011 compared to 2010.
Number of Casualties
600 500 400 300

200 100
Definition: The chart represents monthly nationwide ISAF casualties. Data Source: ISAF CJ1 Database, as of 29 Sep 2011.
Monthly Civilian Casualties

800 CIVCAS caused by ISAF 700 CIVCAS caused by Insurgents
NATO
OTAN
ISAF Observations
Insurgents caused over 80 percent of civilian casualties in 2011. Over 70 percent of insurgentcaused CIVCAS result from IED strikes. ISAF caused civilian casualties are 20 percent higher in 2011 (January through August) than during the same period in 2010. ISAF makes every effort to protect the Afghan population and ensure that the number of civilian casualties is kept to an absolute minimum.
Number of Civilian Casualties
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11
Definition: The chart represents monthly nationwide civilian casualties. The data reported here is consistent with ISAF policy, which directs that all credible allegations of civilian casualties be reviewed. The figures reported on this chart reflect incidents of conflict-related civilian casualties that have been confirmed through investigation to have been caused by either ISAF or insurgents. Data Source: ISAF Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS) Database, as of 29 Sep 2011. ISAF makes every effort to protect the Afghan population and ensure that the number of civilian casualties is kept to an absolute minimum.

ISAF Violence Trends: AA G AA G

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NATO

ISAF Violence Trends

DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more information becomes available.

NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC

Increase from Year Before

Decrease from Year Before

DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more information becomes available.

NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC

-400 200 600 800

-400 200 600 800

DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more information becomes available.

20% of Nationwide violence 39% of Nationwide violence

34% of Nationwide violence

-400 200 600 800

Less than 1%of Nationwide violence

Enemy-Initiated Attacks (EIA)

Monthly Year-Over-Year Change by RC (Jan 08 Aug 11)

NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC

The comparative charts use the

Nationwide IED Activity

600 500 400 300 200

DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more information becomes available.

NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC

Monthly ISAF Casualties

600 500 400 300

DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more information becomes available.

NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC

Monthly Civilian Casualties

Number of Civilian Casualties

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

DISCLAIMER: Figures may change as more information becomes available.

NON SENSITIVE INFORMATION RELEASABLE TO THE PUBLIC

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