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Mac r o Foc us

Real challenge lies ahead



Economics

CBT announced August C/A deficit at USD4.0bn pretty much in
line with consensus. Announced deficit, which was some 31.1%
higher compared to a year ago period, was slightly higher than the
USD3.9bn market consensus and our more optimistic USD4.0bn
forecast. With the cumulative USD0.4bn downward revision in the C/A
deficit for January-July period year-to-date figure came to USD54.3bn,
i.e. 102.4% higher compared to the first eight months of 2010. 12-
month rolling deficit crawled up to a fresh record high of USD75.1bn
with August data, pointing to a further slowdown in the pace of
increase but still high enough to hit 9.9% of our YE11 GDP estimate.
Tourism revenues remaining short of our estimate pushed C/A
deficit slightly above our call. August data shows the retreat in
goods deficit continued to USD7.1bn in tandem with the lowest foreign
trade deficit of last 6 months. Annual growth dropping to 25.3% on that
front from the 92% spike year-to-date is a positive indicator in our
opinion, but the role of base effect shall not be disregarded. Services
balance at USD3.4bn surplus was quite strong, but a bit weaker than
what we anticipated as the USD3.0bn net tourism revenue generation
was some USD0.2bn short of our call.
FDI sustained high growth, while portfolio capital recorded the
first net outflow of 2011. The USD0.9bn net FDI inflow points to a
53% annual surge and brings the 12 month rolling sum to USD12.4bn,
highest level of last 29 months. The global financial turmoil in August
led the foreign investors to reduce their securities portfolio in capital in
Turkey, and they sold USD0.6bn of their equity holdings in addition to
USD0.8bn of domestic debt instruments. The amount of currency and
deposits Turkish banking sector holds abroad shows the second
consecutive month of heavy outflow with USD2.0bn, only 10% of
which was covered by the repatriated assets of the corporate sector.
Foreigners deposits continued to substitute banking sectors
foreign borrowing. For the second consecutive month net external
funding the banking sector could raise was insignificant at USD0.1bn,
while they succeeded to replace the maturing short-term credit with
long-term. Half billion external funding corporate sector brought in was
also in line with the previous months, and continued to rely on short-
term. Boost of non-residents deposits in the Turkish banking system
to the tune of the USD2.3bn saved the day in a month, when the
CBTs reserves were depleted by USD4.4bn.
Risks are slightly on the downside for our YE11 C/A deficit
forecast of USD77.7bn. We still think that the economic downturn will
be softer than anticipated by many, and the international energy prices
seem to be resisting a sizeable downward correction. In the current
setting, we choose to cut our forecast by an insignificant 2% to
USD76.1bn to reflect the revisions to earlier data and slight softening
in the dataflow. However, the major challenge will be bringing the
deficit down to sustainable levels rather than stabilizing at around 9-
10% of GDP, and the delayed MTP shall give a credible road map. .
Aug-11 YoY (%) Jan-Aug-11 YtD (%)
CURRENT ACCOUNT -4.0 31.1% -54.3 102.4%
Goods -7.1 25.3% -61.4 92.0%
o/w Exports f.o.b 11.6 29.7% 91.9 22.1%
Imports f.o.b. -17.6 23.0% -150.1 39.6%
Services 3.4 20.3% 11.7 32.3%
o/w Travel 3.0 7.8% 11.8 20.4%
Income -0.5 47.3% -5.6 23.8%
o/w Net Int. Payment -0.3 31.0% -2.4 -17.6%
Current Transfers 0.2 51.4% 1.0 24.2%
o/w Workers Remittances 0.1 -6.5% 0.6 7.9%
-4.0
-3.9
-75.1
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
C/A Consensus 12M C/A-RHS
Aug-11 YoY (%) Jan-Aug-11 YtD (%)
CAPITAL AND FIN. ACC. 4.4 334.4% 44.6 81.6%
FDI 0.9 53.0% 8.6 113.6%
Portfolio Investment -1.5 -157.9% 17.8 26.7%
Other Investment 0.6 -48.2% 22.9 38.1%
Reserve Assets 4.4 -232.1% -4.7 -53.5%
NET ERRORS AND OMM. -0.4 -121.3% 9.6 330.5%
21.7%
-13.8%
-19.9%
0.0% 2.3%
12.6%
50%
15.8%
-2.2%
23.3%
7.0%
16.6%
10.3%
-2.0%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Aug-11 Jan-Aug-11
11
th
of October 2011
Levent Durusoy
levent.durusoy@yfas.com.tr
+90 (212) 317 69 33
Current Account (USD bn)
Balance of Payments (USD bn)
C/A Balance (USD bn)
Selected C/A Items (as % of C/A Deficit)
Macro Focus, 11
th
of October 2011







































C/A vs. Non-energy C/A (12M Rolling)
Composition of Services Balance (12M Rolling)
C/A Balance as % of GDP
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
C/A Non Energy C/A
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Tourism Non-tourism
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
*As of YE11 GDP Forecast
Macro Focus, 11
th
of October 2011




























12M Rolling Portfolio Capital Inflow (USD bn)
12M Rolling Foreign Direct Investment
12M Rolling Long Term Ext. Debt Roll Over Ratio
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
USD as % of C/A def. (RHS)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Equities Fixed Income (RHS)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
Banks Corporate (RHS)

Erste Group Research Short note


Analyst: Ozlem Derici
ozlem.derici@erstegroup.com





The worst is over...

The August balance of payments generated a USD 4bn deficit, higher than our expectation of USD 3.5bn, but
broadly in line with the market consensus. The 12-month rolling deficit rose to USD 75.1bn (10.1%), up from
USD 74.2bn (10% of GDP). It is good to see the non-energy component of the current account deficit flattening
at USD 32.6bn in August. We expect it to decline further in the coming months, while the marked slowdown in
the overall current account deficit will start as of October.

Current Account Balance (12-month rolling; USD bn)
Source: CBT, Erste Group Research
-32.6
-75.1
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan-05 Aug-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jun-11
Current Account Balance (exc. energy)
Current Account Balance



On the financing side, however, the August turbulence seems to have taken its toll on inflows, in the
sense that there have been no capital inflows and the current account was fully financed with reserve
use of USD 4.4bn. Portfolio investments comprising equity inflows and TL-securities held by non-
residents generated USD 1.5bn worth of outflows on a monthly basis. However, based on the ISE data
regarding monthly foreign transactions, portfolio inflows are likely to recover in September, thanks to
the positive deviation of the Turkish market from its peers in September, mainly
upgrade of T rating on TL debt and increased expectations of a foreign currency upgrade. Other
good news was that the short-term liabilities were very weak at USD 0.2bn, while FDI was not quite
weak, generating USD 0.9bn in monthly inflows.

On a 12-month rolling basis, capital inflows in August declined to USD 70.5bn (from USD 74.9bn), of
which 20.7% came from FDI and long-term corporate borrowing. This ratio was 18.6% in July. It is good
to see FDI and long-term corporate borrowing rising, while it is still far from sufficient in terms of
generating a reliable financing structure for the current account deficit. As for the main hot money items,
portfolio inflows in 12-month rolling terms declined to USD 19.8bn, from USD 24bn in July. The main
Turkey: Balance of Payments
Short note Fixed Income Research October 11, 2011

Erste Group Research Short note

cost of this weaker performance in the capital account has been the decline in CBT reserves, which
came down to USD 7.4bn, from USD 15.2bn as of August, in 12-month rolling terms.

Capital Account and Corporate Borrowing (12-month rolling,USD bn)
Source: CBT, Erste Group Research
2.3
70.5
12.4
-25
-5
15
35
55
75
95
Jan-05 Dec-05 Nov-06 Oct-07 Sep-08 Aug-09 Jul-10 Jun-11
Capital Account
FDI
Corporate LT Borrowing


The moderation in the pace of the current account deficit apparently started in August and is likely to
continue in the coming months. We maintain our view that the end-year current account deficit will
come down to 8.5% of GDP, from its current level of around 10%. Despite the deceleration in capital
inflows in August and the less than rosy picture for September with massive amount of outflows from
the bond market, we do not expect it to turn into a crisis situation for Turkey in 2011, with a continuous
reversal of inflows and sudden economic contraction.
1
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Yurt i Yerl e iklerin Yurt D Mevduatlar Net Hata Noksan
Yeni Bir ey Yok Mu?
Merkez Bankas (MB) A ustos ay demeler dengesi verilerine gre ayl k cari a k 3,96
milyar dolar ile (y ll k bazda %31 yukar da) piyasan n beklentisi ve MB cephesinden
yap lan a klamalar ile uyumlu bir resim ortaya kard . Ayl k gerekle me Ekim 2010dan
beri grd mz en s n rl cari a k rakam na i aret ediyor.
Bylece y l n ilk sekiz ay nda cari a k bir nceki y l n ayn dnemine gre %102
geni leyerek 54,26 milyar dolar seviyesine kt . Y ll kland r lm rakam ise bir nceki ayki
74,2 milyar dolar seviyesinden 75,1 milyar dolara ykseldi.
Odak Noktas
A USTOS 2011
DEMELER
DENGES
A ustos ay nda cari a k
piyasa bekIentisiyIe ve
MBnin ngrIeriyIe
uyumIu
MevsimseIIi e uygun
oIarak turizm geIirIerinin
hizmetIer kaIemi
destekIemeye devam
ediyor
No: 1150
Kaynak: TCMB, Yat r m
Kaynak: TCMB, Yat r m
AyI k bazda net hata
noksan kaIemi zerinden
k ya and grIyor
Cari a k cephesinde
a a ynI dzeItmenin
devam edece ini
d nyoruz
Mevsimselli e uygun olarak, zellikle turizm cephesinden gelen destekle hizmetler
sektrnn cari dengeye katk s n n artt grlyor. Net hata noksan kalemi zerinden
nceki ayl k dnemdeki kuvvetli giri lerin ard ndan, ayl k sermaye k 428 milyar
dolar seviyesinde. Y l ba ndan bu yana bak ld nda net hata noksan kalemi zerinden
sermaye giri inin toplamda 9,6 milyar dolara eri ti i ve ilk sekiz ayl k cari a n %18inin
finanse edildi ini gryoruz.
Burcu nvar
+90 212 350 25 78
bunuvar@isyatirim.com.tr
Cari IemIer A n n
Kayna (mn $)
2011
Haziran
2011
Temmuz
2011
A ustos 2010
Son 12
ay
Y II k %
de .
1.Cari lemler Dengesi -7,597 -5,285 -3,964 -47,695 -75,142 58%
A. Mal ve Hizmet Dengesi -7,206 -4,772 -3,690 -41,821 -68,403 64%
Mallar -9,019 -7,977 -7,093 -56,445 -85,877 52%
Hizmetler 1,813 3,205 3,403 14,624 17,474 19%
Turizm 1,714 2,858 3,037 15,981 17,992 13%
B. Gelir Dengesi -495 -603 -489 -7,322 -8,391 15%
C. Cari Transf erler 104 90 215 1,448 1,652 14%
2.Net Hata Noksan 1,838 1,269 -428 4,681 12,084 158%
I. Toplam Finansman ht. (1+2) -5,759 -4,016 -4,392 -43,014 -63,058 47%
Kaynak: TCMB, Yat r m
-80,000
-70,000
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
$ mn
$ mn
Y ll k Cari A k (sol eksen) Y ll k Cari A k
2
11/10/2011
A ustos ay nda yabanc
yat r mc Iar n sat
ynnde oIdu u grIyor
Bir nceki aya gre h z kesen yabanc do rudan yat r mlarda ayl k giri 860 milyon dolar
seviyesinde. u ana kadar kesinle en i lemlerle, y l ba ndan beri toplam giri , 8,6 milyar
dolara ula t . Dolay s yla y l sonu tahminimiz olan 7 milyar dolar n a ld n ve do rudan
yabanc yat r mlar n y l ba ndan bu yana toplamda cari a n %16s n finanse etti ini
gryoruz.
Portfy yat r mlar na bakt m zda, hem sabit getirili menkul k ymetler piyasas hem de
hisse senetleri piyasas ndan k ya and grlyor. Kresel bazda d en risk
i tah ndan Trkiyenin olumsuz ynde etkilendi i ortada.
MBnin nc verileri, Eyll ay nda yabanc yat r mc lar n sabit getirili menkul k ymetler
cephesinde sat ynnde olduklar n ve toplamda 3,8 milyar dolarl k k ya and n
gsteriyor.
CAR AI IN
F NANSMANI
Ayl k bor evirme oran bankac l k d zel kesim iin %107, bankac l k sektr iin
%286 seviyesinde. Son 12 aya bak ld nda bankac l k sektr iin bor evirme oran n n
%147ye bankac l k d zel kesim iin ayn rakam n %109 ile May s 2009dan beri en
yksek seviyesine kt grlyor.
Piyasa taraf ndan yak ndan takip edilen resmi rezervlerin ayl k bazda 4,4 milyar azald
grlyor. Bu a dan MBnin, tam olarak kullan lmas halinde 3,6 milyar dolarl k rezerv
yaratmas beklenen, bankalar n TL cinsi kar l klar n n %20lik k sm n yabanc para
cinsinden tutulabilme olana n sa lamas olumlu. Ancak MBnin dviz sat m ihalelerine
devam etmesi resmi rezervler cephesinde temkinli bir duru un gereklili ine i aret ediyor.
Cari a kta cephesinde gerekle meler, MBnin ve bizim ngrlerimizle uyumlu. A a
ynl dzeltmenin nmzdeki dnemde kademeli olarak devam edece ini
d nyoruz. Ancak finansman taraf n yak ndan takip etmeye devam edece iz. Y l
sonu cari a k/GSY H tahminimiz %9,6 seviyesinde.
nc rakamIar EyII
ay nda sermaye k n n
bono portfy zerinden
devam edece ini
gsteriyor
Dviz rezervIerinin
seviyesi zeIIikIe son
dnemde yak ndan takip
ediIiyor
Cari a k cephesinde
a a ynI dzeItmenin
kademeIi oIarak devam
edece ini d nyoruz
Y I ba ndan beri
gerekIe en do rudan
yabanc yat r mIar iIk sekiz
ayI k cari a n %16s n
finanse ediyor
Bor Yaratmayan Finansman mn $)
2011
Temmuz
2011
A ustos 2010
Son 12
ay
Y II k %
de .
II. Toplam Finansman (A+B+C) 4,016 4,392 43,014 63,058 47%
A.Sermaye Hareketleri (net) 7,022 2,598 44,525 66,230 49%
Do rudan Yat r mlar 2,665 860 7,816 12,375 58%
Portf y yat r mlar 2,033 -1,519 16,093 19,849 23%
Hkmetin Yurtd Tahvil hrac 0 0 4,082 2,207 a.d.
Yabanc lar n Hisse Senedi Al m 114 -546 3,468 914 -74%
Yabanc lar n DBS Al m 1,716 -847 10,715 13,837 29%
B.IMF Kredileri 0 -857 -2,159 -3,047 41%
C.Rezerv De i imi (-art ) -3,006 2,651 648 -125 -119%
Bankalar n Dviz Varl klar -3,671 -1,778 13,457 7,313 -46%
Resmi Rezervler 665 4,429 -12,809 -7,438 -42%
Kaynak: TCMB, Yat r m
Cari IemIer Dengesinin
Finansman ($ mn)
2011
Temmuz
2011
A ustos 2010
Son 12
ay
Y II k %
de .
Krediler (IMF kredileri hari) 1,262 1,796 12,852 30,063 134%
Genel Hkmet 186 187 3,564 2,422 -32%
Bankalar 243 90 12,895 18,328 42%
Uzun Vade 309 1,209 881 3,930 346%
Ksa Vade -66 -1,119 12,014 14,398 20%
Di er Sektrler 833 1,519 -3,607 9,313 -358%
Uzun Vade 214 161 -7,174 2,258 -131%
Ksa Vade 239 337 1,436 2,305 61%
Ticari Krediler 380 1,021 2,131 4,750 123%
Kaynak: TCMB, Yat r m
Bankac I k d zeI kesim
ve bankac I k sektrIerinin
gI bor evirme
oranIar n n devam etti ini
gryoruz
3
11/10/2011
Kaynak: TCMB, Yat r m
Kaynak: TCMB, Yat r m
Kaynak: TCMB, Yat r m
*Y ll kland r lm rakamlard r
*Y ll kland r lm rakamlard r
*Y ll kland r lm rakamlard r
zeI sektrn y II k bor
oran , May s 2009dan beri
en yksek seviyesinde;
%109
Ticari krediIeri evirme
oran n n gI devam
etmesi a rt c de iI
Bankac I k sektrnde
y II k bor evirme oran
yksek seyrini koruyor
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
zel Sektrn Uzun Vadeli Borlar evirme Oran *
80%
100%
120%
140%
Ticari Kredileri evirme Oran*
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
Bankalar n Uzun Vadeli Borlar n evirme Oran *




-

- - - ---
--
- - -
-
- - - -
- -
- -
- - - - - --
- - -
- -- - --- -
- - -
---

- - --
- --- - -
- - - - -
- -- - - - -
- - - -
- -
- -
-
-

-

10/10/2011
: Burada yer alan bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri . hizmeti; kurumlar, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile
imzalanacak . Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede . Bu mali durumunuz ile risk
ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun . Bu sayfalarda yorum, haber veya
nedeniyle ortaya ticari veya Halk Menkul A. . sorumlu . Buradaki ve yorumlar sayfa bilgilendirme . Rapor
resim, analiz ve sunumlar izin veya .
Uzman
Tel: (0212) 314 81 83 ibuk@halkyatirim.com.tr
Cari Mart 9,7 milyar$ ile
bazda rekor seviyeye sonra
gerilemeye . Temmuz cari
5,32 milyar$ olarak
.

olarak cari
bu yana
politika ve mevsimsel olarak
artan turizm gelirleri etkili .

Ancak 12 olarak cari
artmaya devam . Temmuz
12 cari 74,56
milyar$ ile tarihi seviyededir.

bir miktar ivme kaybeden
ekonomik aktivite ve turizm gelirlerinin etkisi ile
cari 4
milyar$ .

Piyasa beklentisi de ortalama 4,03 milyar$ .
Piyasada cari beklentileri 3,5
milyar$ ile 4,7 milyar$ .
TabIe 1: Current Account DeveIopments (USD, mn)
Source: CBRT
2011 2010 2011 2010 Aug Jul
Current Account -3,964 -3,024 -54,261 -26,814 -75,142 -74,202
o/w: Non-Energy 1/ -267 -335 -24,652 -5,749 -32,571 -32,638
Trade Balance -7,093 -5,662 -61,435 -32,003 -85,877 -84,446
Exports 11,852 9,081 93,444 77,593 136,753 133,982
% 31 7 165 95 195 172
Imports -18,945 -14,743 -154,879 -109,596 -222,630 -218,428
% 29 19 334 247 473 463
Services (net) 3,403 2,828 11,678 8,828 17,474 16,899
o/w: Tourism (net) 3,037 2,818 11,845 9,834 17,992 17,773
% 8 -19 200 -53 190 163
Income (net) -489 -332 -5,552 -4,483 -8,391 -8,234
o/w: Interest Expenditure -414 -373 -3,142 -3,613 -4,960 -4,919
Current Transfers 215 142 1,048 844 1,652 1,579
Memorandum Items: 2/
Trade Balance -8,230 -6,911 -59,218 -42,131 -100,941 -99,622
Energy 3/ -3,697 -2,689 -29,609 -21,065 -42,571 -41,564
Non-Energy -4,533 -4,221 -29,609 -21,065 -58,369 -58,058
2/ TURKSTAT definitions.
3/ STIC definition; including crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas.
1/ Current account less energy deficit by TURKSTAT def inition, i.e. energy imports including cost-insurance-freight.
Aug Jan-Aug 12-month roIIing
Graph 1: Current Account BaIance (12-month roIIing; USD, bn)
Source: CBRT
-80
-75
-70
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Current Account BaIance
Current Account BaIance (exc. energy)












LTFEN NEML AIKLAMALAR N SON SAYFAYA BAKINIZ

Beklentilere paralel A ustos verilerine gre 12 aylk cari ak US$ 75.1 milyar...
Gerekle me: US$ 3.96 milyar, ING Bank Tahmini: US$ 4.4 milyar, Piyasa Tahmini: US$ 3.9 milyar


-80,000
-70,000
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
Oca ub Mar Nis May Haz Tem A u Eyl Eki Kas Ara
2009 2010 2011
Kaynak: TCMB, INGBank



US$
milyon
Cari Dengeye
Oran
US$
milyon
Cari Dengeye
Oran
Cari Denge -3,964 100% -75,142 100%
D Ticaret Dengesi -7,093 179% -85,877 114%
Toplam Kaytl Sermaye Giri i 1,741 44% 63,183 84%
Net Do rudan Yatrmlar 860 22% 12,375 16%
Yabanclarn Net Menkul Kymet Almlar -1,393 35% 14,751 20%
Hisse Senedi -546 14% 914 1%
Bono -847 21% 13,837 18%
Net D Borlanma*- Bankalar 90 2% 18,328 24%
Uzun Vade 1,209 30% 3,930 5%
Ksa Vade -1,119 28% 14,398 19%
Net D Borlanma*- Reel Sektr 498 13% 4,563 6%
Uzun Vade 161 4% 2,258 3%
Ksa Vade 337 9% 2,305 3%
Net D Borlanma*-Hazine -857 22% -840 1%
Uzun Vade 0 0% 2,207 3%
Ksa Vade -857 22% -3,047 4%
Bankalardaki Mevduat 2,314 58% 2,376 3%
Di er 229 6% 11,630 15%
Rezerv De i im 2,651 67% -125 0%
Bankalar -1,778 45% 7,313 10%
Resmi 4,429 112% -7,438 10%
Net Hata Noksan -428 11% 12,084 16%
Di er Sektrler Uzun Vadeli Kredi evrim Oran 107% 109%
Bankalar Uzun Vadeli Kredi evrim Oran 286% 147%
Ksa Vadeli Ticari Kredi evrim Oran 116% 107%
*Ticari kredil er hari 'Mutlak de er Kaynak: TCMB
A u 11
Seilmi demeler Dengesi Kalemleri - Kmlatif Geli im
Eyl 10 - A u 11


-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Uzun Vadeli Finansman Ksa Vadeli Finansman-sa









D
E
M
E
L
E
R

D
E
N
G
E
S



11.10.11

A ustosta cari ak US$ 3.96 milyar ile US$ 3.9 milyar olan
piyasa beklentisine paralel, US$ 4.4 milyar olan tahminimizin
ise (genel olarak turizm gelirlerindeki sapma nedeniyle)
altnda gerekle ti. Yllk bazda cari aktaki art belirgin
olarak yava larken A ustos sonu itibaryla US$ 75.1 milyara
ykselerek yeni bir rekor krd. US$ 7.1 milyarla son be
aydaki ortalama dzeyinin altnda kalsa da aylk cari akta
yksek seyrine devam eden d ticaret a yine belirleyici
oldu, turizm gelirlerinin mevsimsel olarak artmasna ba l
olarak hizmetler dengesi ise US$ 3.4 milyar fazla verdi.
Ancak net turizm gelirlerinin art nn nceki yln ayn ayna
gre %7.8le nceki dnemlerin altnda kalmas dikkat ekti.
Finansman tarafnda, A ustosta sermaye giri lerinin ksa ve
uzun vadede srasyla US$ 385 milyon ve US$ 1.4 milyar
olmas, sermaye giri lerinin vade kompozisyonunda aylk
bazda uzun vade lehinde greli bir iyile me oldu una i aret
etmektedir. Yine de 2010 yl boyunca artan ksa vadeli
kaynaklarn toplam finansman iinde pay 2011 iinde
ksmen azalsa da a rl n korumaya devam etmektedir.
Uzun vadeli kaynak giri inde belirleyici kalemlerden net
do rudan yatrmlarda A ustosta net US$ 860 milyon giri
olurken, son dnemde nem kazanan ve 2011in ilk be
aynda bankalarn US$ 2.3 milyar finansman sa lamalarna
imkan tanyan yurtd nda tahvil ihrac kaleminde A ustosta
giri gzlenmedi. Ksa vadeli fon ak nda ise, finansal
piyasalarda risk i tahnn azald A ustos aynda bono ve
hisse senedi piyasalarndan toplamda US$ 1.3 milyar k
grld. Buna paralel olarak, ylba ndan bu yana
yabanclarn net menkul kymet almlar US$ 11.5 milyara
geriledi. A ustosta bankalar US$ 1.1 milyarlk ksa vadeli
bor demesi yaparken, bankalarn mevduatlarnda US$ 2.3
milyarlk art gzlendi.
te yandan, genelde pozitif olan net hata ve noksan
kaleminde A ustosta US$ 428 milyonluk k olurken, sekiz
aylk toplam rakam US$ 9.6 milyar dzeyinde kald. Toplam
rezervler ise A ustosta US$ 2.7 milyar azalrken (resmi
rezervlerde US$ 4.4 milyarla Kasm 2000den bu yana en
byk d ), Ocak-A ustos dneminde ise US$ 5.3 milyar
(resmi rezervlerde US$ 4.7 milyar art ) ykseldi.
A ustosta yllk bazda bankalarn uzun vadeli bor evrim
oran %147, reel sektrn uzun vadeli bor evrim oran
%109 ve ksa vadeli ticari kredilerin evrim oran %107 oldu.
Ekonomik aktivitede yava lamann son veri ak yla
netle ti i d nld nde, birikimli cari a n, ykselen
kurun da etkisiyle 2011in kalan dneminde kademeli olarak
yava layaca n ve yl sonunda US$ 70 milyarla GSYHnin
%9.4 dzeyinde olaca n d nyoruz.


Muhammet Mercan

Current account deficit presents better outlook


The current account deficit posted US$4bn deficit in August. It was in line with market expectations.
Since July, the current account deficit has improved. In fact, August deficit was the lowest deficit
registered so far in 2011. The deficit was expected to normalize with the help of measures taken in 1H11
in order to limit loan growth by the Central Bank of Turkey and the Banking Regulatory Agency. Yet,
unfavourable base year effect caused the annual deficit to increase from US$74.2bn in July to US$75.1bn
in August. We expect annual deficit to decline to US$73.5bn (9.6% of GDP) at the end of 2011 with
favourable base effect in November and December. We expect the CA deficit to decline to 6.7% of GDP
(US$55bn) in 2012.
Signs of slow down in economic activity (seasonally adjusted industrial production declined 2.6% MoM
in August, highest monthly decline since December 2009) suggests that the current account deficit will
further improve in the coming months. In fact, problems in Europe might seriously affect Turkeys
economy and GDP growth might fall sharply. Therefore, on the one hand, the Central Bank removed 25%
loan growth ceiling on the banking sector and the Bank reduced reserve requirements on both foreign
exchange and TL liabilities. Further reserve requirement ratio reductions by the Central Bank may be
expected if a risk of contraction appears in economic activity.
Improvement in the current account deficit was in net non energy imports. While annual net energy
imports increased from US$41.4bn in July to US$42.6bn in August, net non energy imports declined from
US$32.8bn in July to US$32.6bn in August. It was the first decline in annual series of net non energy
imports since October 2009 (see chart).
Cur r ent Account Def i ci t ( Annual , US$bn)
Component of Annual Cur r ent Account
Def i ci t ( Annual , US$bn)
0. 0
5. 0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
-50.0
-45.0
-40.0
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Net Energy I mport Net Non-energy I mport
Sour ce: Cent ral Bank Sour ce: Cent r al Bank, Ak I nvest ment
MACRO NOTE
Balance of Payments
October 11, 2011
Hakan Aklar +90 212 334 9461
hakan.aklar@akyatirim.com.tr

CAD Fi nanci ng ( Annual , US$bn) Net Er r or and Omi ssi on ( Annual , US$bn)
- 20.0
- 10.0
0. 0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Port f ol i o and Short - t erm Borrowi ng (LHS)
FDI and Long Term Borrowi ng ( LHS)
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0. 0
2. 0
4. 0
6. 0
8. 0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Sour ce: Cent ral Bank Sour ce: Cent r al Bank
On the financing side, we observe that the current account deficit in August was met with decline in
reserves. On the other hand, annual figures show that portfolio and short term financing declined while
FDI and long term borrowing increased (see chart). Yet, FDI and long term borrowing are still very low
when compared with pre crisis levels. Net error and omission was also high at US$12bn annually; in the
medium term, it should be expected to normalize (see chart above).
1
TeII Me Something New
The Central Bank (CBRT) released August balance of payment data pointing at a
monthly current account deficit (CAD) of USD 3.96 bn (31% YoY wider), being the lowest
monthly figure since October 2010 and standing in Iine with the market caII and
CBRTs guidance.
On the back of the monthly figure, 8M2011 CAD reached to USD 54.26 bn (102% YoY
wider) while annualized CAD now stands at USD 75.1 bn up from USD 74.2 bn in July.
FocaI Point
BaIance of
Payments-
August 2011

--

-
- -

-- -
No: 1241
Source: CBRT, Is Investment
-
-
---

Burcu nvar
+90 212 350 25 78
bunuvar@isyatirim.com.tr
Strong pace of tourism revenues backed the services sectors contribution owing to the
seasonality. Meanwhile, we see a monthly outflow of some USD 428 mn through the net
errors and omissions, following strong inflow in the prior three months. Please note that,
despite monthly outflow, YtD inflow through this figure reached to USD 9.6 bn, financing
18% of the YtD CAD.
Source: CBRT, Is Investment
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Residents' Deposits Abroad Net Errors and Omissions
Sources of CAD (USD mn)
2011
June
2011
JuIy
2011
August 2010
Last 12
Month
YoY %
chng.
1.Current Account Def icit -7,597 -5,285 -3,964 -47,695 -75,142 58%
A.Goods and Services -7,206 -4,772 -3,690 -41,821 -68,403 64%
Goods -9,019 -7,977 -7,093 -56,445 -85,877 52%
Services 1,813 3,205 3,403 14,624 17,474 19%
Tourism 1,714 2,858 3,037 15,981 17,992 13%
B. Income -495 -603 -489 -7,322 -8,391 15%
C. Current Transf ers 104 90 215 1,448 1,652 14%
2.Net Errors and Omissions 1,838 1,269 -428 4,681 12,084 158%
I. Total Financing Need (1+2) -5,759 -4,016 -4,392 -43,014 -63,058 47%
Source: CBRT, Is Investment
-80,000
-70,000
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
Monthly C/A Deficit (l.a.) Annualized C/A Deficit
2
11/10/2011
- --
-- -
Monthly direct foreign investment has lost some pace down to USD 860 mn in August,
carrying the YtD figure to USD 8.6 bn. YTD figure already surpassed our earlier call of
USD 7 bn, pointing at some USD 10 bn for the full year. So far, YtD FDI inflow finances
some 16% of the YtD CAD.
On the portfolio flow front, we see a monthly outflow through both equity and bond
markets. Falling risk appetite in the world, inevitably affect Turkish markets as well.
Central Banks leading data show that while non residents will be on the buy-side in
September, there is a significant outflow from the bond market amounting USD 3.8 bn.
Financing of
the CAD
- -


Monthly roll over ratio of the non-bank sector stands at 107% while this ratio is some
286% for the banking industry. On a 12-month basis, the roll-over ratio of the banking
sector climbed up to 147% while corporate rollover ratio reached to 109%, highest since
May 2009.
Please note that some USD 4.4 bn of official reserves have eroded in August which is
already put under the spot light by the market players. CBRTs recent decision to allow
banking industry to hold up to 20% of their TL reserve requirements in terms of FX will
add some USD 3.6 bn to the official reserves if being utilized fully. Yet, as CBRT
continues to sell FX to the market, reserve management requires extreme care due to the
limited amount in hand.


--

--
-

-
--
All in all no surprises from the headline CAD. We expect downward adjustment to
continue with gradual steps in the coming period. But financing part should be followed
carefully. Please note that our year end CAD/GDP call stands at 9.6%.
- -

Non Debt Creating Financing (USD mn)
2011
JuIy
2011
August 2010
Last 12
Month
YoY %
chng.
II. Total Financing (A+B+C) 4,016 4,392 43,014 63,058 47%
A.Capital Flows (net) (selected items) 7,022 2,598 44,525 66,230 49%
FDI 2,665 860 7,816 12,375 58%
Portfolio Investments (net) (selected items) 2,033 -1,519 16,093 19,849 23%
Eurobonds 0 0 4,082 2,207 -46%
Non-residents' Equity Purch. 114 -546 3,468 914 -74%
Non-residents' Govt. Sec. Pur. 1,716 -847 10,715 13,837 29%
B.IMF credits 0 -857 -2,159 -3,047 41%
C.Reserve Changes ("-" is incr.) -3,006 2,651 648 -125 -119%
Banks' FX assets -3,671 -1,778 13,457 7,313 -46%
Of f icial Reserves 665 4,429 -12,809 -7,438 -42%
Source: CBRT, Is Investment
Financing of the current account
deficit (USD mn)
2011
JuIy
2011
August 2010
Last 12
Month
YoY %
chng.
Credits (excluding IMF) 1,262 1,796 12,852 30,063 134%
Government 186 187 3,564 2,422 -32%
Banks 243 90 12,895 18,328 42%
Long Term 309 1,209 881 3,930 346%
Short Term -66 -1,119 12,014 14,398 20%
Other sectors 833 1,519 -3,607 9,313 -358%
Long Term 214 161 -7,174 2,258 -131%
Short Term 239 337 1,436 2,305 61%
Trade Credits 380 1,021 2,131 4,750 123%
Source: CBRT, Is Investment
3
11/10/2011
Source: CBRT, Is Investment
Source: CBRT, Is Investment
Source: CBRT, Is Investment
-
--


---
*Roll-over ratios are calculated in 12 months basis
*Roll-over ratios are calculated in 12 months basis
*Roll-over ratios are calculated in 12 months basis
-
-
-
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Roll-over ratio of long term debt of private sector*
- -

80%
100%
120%
140%
Roll-over ratio for long term trade credits*
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
Rollover Ratio for the Long Term Debt of Banks*
Sal es Cont act s:
Emir Tayman (+90 212 370 6806)
emirt@ekspresinvest.com
Ek spr es Yat i r i m Menk ul Deger l er A.S. Buyukdere Cad. No: 106 Kat: 15 34394 Esentepe, Istanbul TURKEY
This document has been produced by Ekspres Invest Research Department for purposes of information and cannot be construed as investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell any securities that may be mentioned in the body of the document. The
information contained herein is subject to change without notice. Ekspres Invest, its parent or affiliated companies may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned and may also perform or seek to perform investment
advisory services for those companies.
Bal ance of Pay ment s
Tur k ey / mac r oec onomy Au gust 2011
October 11, 2011
Wher e has al l t he f i nanci ng gone?
The C/A deficit came in at US$4.0bn in August, overlapping the consensus yet
lower than our forecast at US$4.3bn. The tourism revenues remained weak as we
expected, while we are surprised to see the transportation services generating a high net
revenue of US$0.5bn. Even though the deficit continued to deteriorate in annual
comparison, the August deficit was the most benign number in almost a year.
The financing outlook continued to deteriorate and the foreign fund flows fell
short of financing the deficit. The official reserves declined by US$4.4bn in August
and appeared as the key financing source, followed by some US$2.0bn increase in the
foreign residents deposits at the house banks. On the other hand, the portfolio inflows
which had contributed some US$19.4bn in January-July period suffered a net outflow of
US$1.5bn in August, first visible outflow since September last year. Similarly, the
unregistered capital flows gave a negative print of US$0.4bn in August, after contributing
a notable US$10.1bn to the financing of the external deficit in the preceding seven
months. There was also a net outflow of US$2.1bn short term funds (including the short
term credits, trade credits and assets held abroad) after US$3.6bn outflow in July,
whereas the long term loans of the private and banking sector remained low at
US$0.7bn.
The 12-month rolling C/A deficit rose to US$75.1bn (9.5% of GDP) as of August
from US$74.2bn deficit in July. On the other hand, the improvement in the non-energy
deficit already started as the 12-month deficit in that segment remained unchanged MoM
at US$32.6bn (4.1% of GDP). Based on our estimates for the seasonally adjusted
figures, the monthly non-energy deficit seems to have been surfacing lower around
US$1.5bn over the last two months after peaking at US$4.2bn in May-June. The data
confirms that the external deficit has been abating in line with the slower economic
activity.
The share of the short term and portfolio inflows in financing the current account
deficit has been retreating, yet the long term financing instruments fail to improve
enough to compensate this. We reckon that the portfolio and short term inflows (such
as deposits and credits) financed 70% of the 12-month C/A deficit as of August vs. 109%
in January and 85% in May. On the other hand, the FDI and long term loans finance
24% of the 12-month deficit in August, up from 8% in January and 17% in May. While
the shift in the composition of the financing instruments is healthy, the deceleration of the
overall inflows resulted in a weaker reserve outlook for the CBT.
We maintain our US$74.3bn (9.6%GDP) C/A deficit forecast for the year-end.
However, our projections show that the 12-month rolling C/A deficit is set to widen before
it gets narrower in October, the earliest. The tight relation between the pace of economic
activity and currency on one side and the imports on the other side leaves little doubt
that the import demand will continue to ease and put a downside pressure on the
external deficit. However, export performance is more ambiguous and the weakness in
European economies may hinder the rebalancing of the economy.
Nilufer Sezgin
nilufers@ekspresinvest.com
+90 212 336 5193
Balance of Payments: August 2011 October, 2011
Ek spr es I nvest
Page 2
FI GURE 1 Bal ance of Pay ment s ( 12- mont h r ol l i ng)
Source: CBT, Ekspres Research
Current Account (US$bn) External Financing (US$bn)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
12.01 03.03 06.04 09.05 12.06 03.08 06.09 09.10
Current Account Balance
Non-energy Current Account Balance
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
12.01 03.03 06.04 09.05 12.06 03.08 06.09 09.10
Portfolio inflows, deposits and other short term
inflows
Long term inflows and FDI


Adres: - (0212) 314 81 81 Fax: (0212) 221 31 81
Tel (0212) 314 81 07



11 Ekim 2011








& Son
Dengesi; Son





















Grafik 2: Ay
Sermaye
Ya








Net Hata
Noksan & Cari
emler
Dengesi

C piyasa beklentisi ve beklentimiz paralelinde 3,96 milyar$ olarak
i. (Piyasa Beklentisi: 4,03 milyar$; Beklentimiz: 4 milyar$)
rekor

Ocak- ise %102,4



Kaynak: www.tcmb.gov.tr;CEIC Data
...
nda
ger
Ocak- 17,8

860 milyon$ olarak
Ocak-



587 milyon$


Kaynak: www.tcmb.gov.tr; CEIC Data

Net hata ve noksan kaleminde ...
Y






Kaynak: www.tcmb.gov.tr; CEIC Data



Uzman
Tel: (0212) 314 81 83
ibuk@halkyatirim.com.tr




Adres: - (0212) 314 81 81 Fax: (0212) 221 31 81
Tel (0212) 314 81 07



11 Ekim 2011















Grafik 4:
Ba


12 a



147,4%
da Temmuz ki %107,29 seviyesinden,
%108,65 s





Kaynak: www.tcmb.gov.tr; CEIC Data









Ancak




















TCMB demeler dengesi istatistiklerine gre, A ustos aynda
cari ak, piyasa beklentilerine paralel 4 milyar ABD dolar
seviyesinde gerekle ti. Son veriler ile birlikte yln 8 aynda
cari ak 54.3 milyar ABD dolarna ykselirken ile yllk
landrlm cari ak rakam, 75.1 milyar ABD dolarna ula t.
Temmuz aynda oldu u gibi A ustos aynda da mevsimsel
olarak hizmet gelirlerindeki art n olumlu etkisi hissedildi.
Ba ar YILDIRIM
yildirimb@tskb.com.tr
+90 212 334 5259
ARA TIRMA
lgili ayda net enerji ithalat d cari ak rakamnn gerilemeye devam etti i gzleniyor. yle ki, A ustos aynda cari
a n net enerji ithalatndan arndrld nda 267 milyon ABD dolar seviyesinde gerekle ti i gzleniyor, ki bu rakam
Ekim 2010dan bu yana gzlenen en olumlu tabloya i aret ediyor. 3 aylk ortalamalar da a n Kasm 2010dan bu yana
en d k seviyesine geriledi ini gsteriyor. Yllklandrlm rakamlara bakld nda da net enerji ithalat d cari a n
14 ay sonra ilk kez gerileyerek 32.6 milyar ABD dolar seviyesinde gerekle ti i grlyor.
Detaylar Olumlu Sinyal Veriyor...
demeler Dengesi A ustos 2011
Do rudan Yabanc Yatrm ve Portfy Yatrmlar
A ustos aynda 860 milyon ABD dolar tutarnda do rudan ya
banc yatrm giri i izlenirken 12 aylk rakamlara bakld nda
rakam 12.4 milyar ABD dolar seviyesinde gerekle ti.
Portfy yatrmlarna bakld nda ilgili ayda hisse senetleri ve
D BSlerde gzlenen satcl seyre ba l olarak 1.5 milyar ABD
dolar tutarnda k izlendi. Yllklandrlm rakamlara
bakld nda portfy yatrmlar 20 milyar ABD dolar seviyesinde
gerekle ti.
Do rudan yabanc yatrmlar ve portfy yatrmlarndaki seyre ba l olarak geni tanml demeler dengesinde A ustos
aynda 4.6 milyar ABD dolar ak gzlenirken yllklandrlm rakamlara bakld nda ak 43 milyar ABD dolarna kt.
Kaynak: TCMB, TSKB
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
-80000
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
Cari lemler dengesi
(oniki aylk, sol eksen)
Cari lemler Dengesi
(aylk, sa eksen)
Kaynak: TCMB, TU K, TSKB Ara trma
Kaynak: TCMB, TU K, TSKB Ara trma
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
demeler Dengesi (12aylkrakamlar)
(milyar dolar)
Do rudan Yabanc Yatrmlar PortfyYatrmlar (sa eksen)
Milyon USD
2010
A ustos
2011
A ustos
De i im Oniki Aylk
%
Cari lemler Hesab 3,024 3,964 31% 75,142
D ticaret Dengesi 5,662 7,093 25% 85,877
Hizmetler Dengesi 2,828 3,403 20% 17,474
Gelir Dengesi 332 489 47% 8,391
Cari Transferler 142 215 51% 1,652
Sermaye ve Finans Hesab 1,011 4,392 334% 63,058
Sermaye Hesab 22 0
Finans Hesaplar 1,033 4,392 325% 63,066
Net Hata Noksan 2,013 428 121% 12,084
Kaynak: TCMB, TSKB Ara trma
demeler Dengesi Gerekle meleri
5,000.00
4,000.00
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
75,000.00
65,000.00
55,000.00
45,000.00
35,000.00
25,000.00
15,000.00
5,000.00
5,000.00
15,000.00
25,000.00
Net Enerji thalat Hari Cari Denge (Yllklandrlm )
Aylk Net Enerji thalat Hari Cari Denge (3 aylk ortalama)

Beklentilere paralel gelen A ustos ay verilerine bakld nda, net enerji ithalat hari cari ak rakamnda
izlenen seyir cari a a dair toparlanma e ilimini destekler nitelikte bir grnm ortaya koyuyor. Portfy
yatrmlarndaki d ile son dnemde cari ak finansman konusunda stepne niteli inde olan net hata ve
noksan kaleminin negatif etkisine ra men ilgili ayda cari ak rakamnn (mevsimsel olarak hizmetler
dengesinin de etkisiyle) gerilemesi, sanayi retiminde oldu u gibi demeler dengesi rakamlarnda da
TCMBnin yumu ak ini senaryosunu destekliyor. Bankaclk ve zel sektr bor evirme oranlarndaki gcn
artmaya devam etmesi de vurgulanmas gereken pozitif geli meler arasnda yer alyor.
Kaynak: TCMB, TSKB Ara trma
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
Bor Dndrme Oranlar
(12aylkrakam baznda)
Banka
zel Sektr (Sa Eksen)
Yurtd Borlanma Gcn Koruyor...
lgili ayda 651 milyon ABD dolar seviyesinde bor geri
demesi bulunan bankaclk sektr yurtd ndan 1.9
milyar ABD dolar tutarnda fon temin etti. 12 aylk
rakamlara bakld nda bankaclk sektrnde bor
evirme oran %147ye ykseldi.
lgili ayda 2.3 milyar ABD dolar bor geri demesi
bulunan zel sektr ise 2.5 milyar ABD dolar finansman
sa layabilmi ken; sektrde yllk bor dndrme oran
ise %109 seviyesine ula t.
A ustos 2011 itibaryla banka ve zel sektr toplamnda
yllk bor evirme oran %118e kt.
Net Hata & Noksan Kalemi ve Rezervler Negatif...
Son dnemde finansman konusunda kurtarc kalemler
ierisinde nitelendirilen net hata ve noksann A ustos
aynda 428 milyon ABD dolar tutarnda aklanamayan
bir k a i aret etti i gzlendi. Yln 8 aylk dneminde
9.6 milyar ABD dolar seviyesinde bir giri anlamna
gelen rakamn yllk bazda 12.1 milyar ABD dolarna
geriledi i izlendi.
Resmi rezervlerde ise dviz satm ihalelerinin de
etkisiyle 4.4 milyar ABD dolar tutarnda d
grlrken yllklandrlm rakamlar baznda rezervlerin
7.4 milyar ABD dolar artt izleniyor.
Kaynak: TCMB, TSKB Ara trma
10000
5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Cari Ak, 12 aylk toplam (milyar dolar)
Net Hata ve Noksan, 12 aylk toplam (sa eksen)

MAKROEKONOM /demeler Dengesi-A USTOS

Sevgl Dzgn sduzgun@ziraatyatirim.com.tr

ARA TIRMA BLM


11 EK M 2011
TCMB verilerine gre A ustos ay nda cari i lemler a , piyasa beklentilerine paralel olarak 3.964
milyon USD olarak gerekle ti. 2010 y l n n Ocak-A ustos dneminde 26.814 milyon USD a k
veren cari i lemler hesab , 2011 y l n n ayn dneminde %102 art gstererek, 54.261 milyon
USD a k vermi tir. Cari i lemler a n n artmas nda, Ocak-A ustos dneminde d ticaret
a n n bir nceki y la gre 29.432 milyon USD tutar nda artarak 61.435 milyon USDye ula mas
etkili olmu tur.

Hizmetler dengesi kalemi, 2011 y l OcakA ustos dneminde nceki y l n ayn dnemine gre
%32 oran nda artarak 11.678 milyon USD fazla vermi tir. A ustos ay nda, hizmetler dengesi
alt nda bulunan turizm gelirleri 3.037 milyon USDye ykselerek cari a n azalmas n sa lam t r.

2010 y l n n OcakA ustos dneminde Sermaye ve Finans hesaplar na 24.574 milyon USD olan
sermaye giri i, bu y l n ayn dneminde %82 oran nda art la 44.618 milyon USD ye ykselmi tir.
Bu y l n OcakA ustos dneminde portfy yat r mlar nceki y l n ayn dnemine gre %27
oran nda artarak 17.831 milyon USD olmu tur. A ustos ay nda ise 1.519 milyon USD k
grlmektedir. A ustosta hisse senetlerinde 546 milyon USD, bor senetlerinde de 790 milyon
USD net yabanc sermaye k olmu tur. Net hata ve noksan kaleminden A ustos ay nda -428
milyon USD k gerekle mi tir.

Cari i lemler a nda Mart ay ndan sonra ba layan iyile me, A ustos ay nda ivme kazand . Son
ayl k verilerde gerilemenin srd cari i lemler a nda, y ll k bazdaki verilerde de art n h z
kesti i grlmektedir. Y l n nc eyre inde a klanan makro ekonomik verilerde, i talebin ve
ithalat n gerilemeye ba lad n n anla lm olmas nedeniyle, y l n geri kalan nda cari i lemler
a nda iyile menin srmesini beklemekteyiz. Ayr ca son a klanan TCMB Para Politikas Kurulu
toplant zetlerinde, nmzdeki dnemde cari i lemler dengesinde belirgin bir iyile menin
olaca n n tahmin edilmesi ve orta/uzun vadede cari i lemler dengesinin makul dzeylerde
tutulabilmesi iin yap sal dzenlemelere devam edilece inin a klanmas , iyile menin srece ine
i aret etmektedir.


Grafik: Ayl k Bazda Cari A k Verileri

Cari A k, Ayl k (Milyon USD)
-12.000
-10.000
-8.000
-6.000
-4.000
-2.000
0
2.000

Kaynak: TCMB (www.tcmb.gov.tr)


Tabl2: Sermaye

Dikkat: Burada yer alan yat r m bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeleri yat r m dan manl kapsamnda de ildir. Yat r m dan manl hizmeti; arac kurumlar, portfy
ynetim irketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile m teri aras nda imzalanacak yat r m dan manl szle mesi erevesinde sunulmaktad r. Burada
yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanlar n ki isel gr lerine dayanmaktad r. Bu gr ler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize
uygun olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayan larak yat r m karar verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonular do urmayabilir.



Tablo: DEMELER DENGES

2010 2011 2011
Ocak-A#ustos Ocak-A#ustos A#ustos
CAR (LEMLER HESABI -26.814 -54.261 -3.964
DI( T CARET DENGES -32.003 -61.435 -7.093
Genel Mal Ticareti -32.218 -58.182 -5.976
hracat f.o.b. 75.282 91.940 11.645
thalat f.o.b. -107.500 -150.122 -17.621
H ZMETLER DENGES 8.828 11.678 3.403
Turizm 9.834 11.845 3.037
GEL R DENGES -4.483 -5.552 -489
CAR TRANSFERLER 844 1.048 215
SERMAYE VE F NANS HESAPLARI 24.574 44.618 4.392
F NANS HESAPLARI 24.622 44.618 4.392
Do#rudan Yat?r?mlar 4.014 8.573 860
Yurtd?@?nda -1.134 -1.540 -91
Yurtiinde 5.148 10.113 951
Portfy Yat?r?mlar? 14.075 17.831 -1.519
Varl?klar -1.007 2.556 -183
Bankalar 254 3.015 -190
Di#er Sektrler -1.261 -459 7
Ykmllkler 15.082 15.275 -1.336
Hisse Senetleri 1.336 -1.218 -546
Bor Senetleri 13.746 16.493 -790
Genel Hkmet 12.723 13.970 -847
Yurtii 9.327 12.449 -847
Di#er Yat?r?mlar 16.566 22.876 622
Varl?klar 3762 6562 -2385
Ykmllkler 12804 16314 3007
Rezerv Varl?klar -10033 -4662 4429
Resmi Rezervler -10033 -4662 4429
Dviz Varl?klar? -18 1.738 324
Menkul K?ymetler -10.015 -6.400 4.105
NET HATA NOKSAN 2.240 9.643 -428
(Milyon ABD Dolar)

Kaynak: TCMB (www.tcmb.gov.tr )


The August CAD at USD 3.96bn was not a surprise for the market; though the monthly deficit slowing
from the first seven months average of USD 7.2bn added to the positive sentiment. In YtD terms, January-
August CAD at USD 54.3bn is more than the double of last years level of USD 26.8bn. Despite the start of
moderation in monthly CAD figures, the 12M CAD moved up to USD 75.2bn versus USD 74.6bn in July- which is
a strong widening at a magnitude of 149% yoy or to 9.6% of GDP.
Out of the USD 75.2bn 12M CAD, while the surge in the energy part continues reaching USD
42.4bn in August, the crucial part- that is the non-energy part is stable at USD 32.5-33.0bn since
June. This of course is good news. As all those who are interested in investing in Turkey know by heart
by now, excessively strong domestic demand has fuelled CAD to unsustainable highs close to 10% of
GDP.
A note on tourism sector though: revenues at USD 3.0bn in August it has reached its yearly peak
mainly due to seasonal factors but it is only 7.8% above that of last years which is below the 27.5%yoy
growth recorded in earlier seven months of the year.
As for the funding side, the August bears a new story which is not a very good one. To begin with
the CBTs official FX reserves recorded a strong USD 4.4bn drop which carries the Ytd decline to USD
4.7bn. Thus, the CBTs reserve decline with the bulk happened in August fully reflects the change of
season on a global scale and especially in Europe. In fact, the foreign residents holdings in the local
banks increased by a net of USD 1.98bn which is also another evidence on the effect of the rising
uncertainties that has roots in the European financial system. While there was a small USD 0.4bn
outflow from the unidentified net errors and omissions (Ytd inflows high at USD 10bn), the selloff in
the markets resulted in USD 1.5bn portfolio investments outflows from Turkey that pulls down the Ytd
inflows to USD 17.8bn. Though we should note that flows to the equity and the bond markets recovered
again starting from mid-September; sentiment with regards to the EU debt crisis plays a great role here.
Despite the liquidity problems abroad, Turkish private sector companies managed to keep their
external debt roll-over ratio above 100% at 107%in August which however compares unfavorably with
the first seven months average of 125%. Net FDI at USD 0.9bn in August -is not good and is not bad-
carries the Ytd figure to USD 8.6bn that accounts to a weak 16%of the overall USD 54.3bn headline
CAD.
Until the end of the year, the monthly drop in the CAD will continue when compared with the
January-July 2011 period. Yet, the moderation will start feeding the 12MCAD figure starting from
1Q12 as we expect an upfront correction in CAD/GDP getting tangible throughout 1H12. Thus, in 12M
terms, until the end of the year CAD is to float within USD 74bn USD 75bn range. Our expectation for
YE 2011 CAD is at USD 74bn which would be corresponding to 9.8%of GDP.
For 2012, we expect Turkeys GDP growth to sharply slowing down to 3% vicinity from around 7% this
year. With a CAD contraction of approx USD 20bn for next year, we estimate CAD at USD 54bn at
the end of 2012 from USD 74bn at the end of 2011. As percentage of GDP, Turkeys CAD to GDP will
be easing to 6.8% by the end of next year from 9.8% this year, in our view. While such a drop will be the
byproduct of 25% weakness in the TRY basket since November 2010; no doubt the scarce external
funding would also take its toll on Turkeys CAD trends.
Regar ds,
mailto:guldem.atabay@unicreditgroup.com.tr
www.unicreditmenkul.com.tr


2011


| 0216 444 1 263

1
3,9 milyar dolar ile 3,8 milyar dolar olan beklentilere
paralel Krizden
,
Y
ticaret dengesini r gesini olumsuz etk
2010 i etkileri
yla,

sekiz 1 ini



Milyon Dolar

2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011
Ocak -3.062 -6.143 2.026 4.541 401 -202 1.915 2.239 1.824 1.602
-2.708 -6.092 750 5.168 441 603 -2.205 2.279 -277 924
Mart -4.292 -9.630 6.618 8.757 287 2.687 2.846 4.816 -550 873
Nisan -4.386 -7.671 11.244 8.024 411 530 4.639 5.333 -2.255 -353
-3.026 -7.879 2.689 3.961 181 765 323 492 2.081 3.918
Haziran -3.463 -7.597 3.633 5.759 556 665 -682 2.158 -767 1.838
Temmuz -3.613 -5.285 3.429 4.016 1.173 2.665 3.981 2.033 834 1.269
-3.077 -3.964 4.739 4.392 559 860 2.937 -1.519 1.712 -428
-3.903 3.303 361 -245 -628
Ekim -3.441 5.361 798 1.972 -300
-6.057 6.019 734 1.054 2.641
-7.529 9.410 1.912 -276 385
-48.557 -54.261 59.221 44.618 7.814 8.573 16.259 17.831 4.700 9.643
Kaynak: www.tcmb.gov.tr



2011


| 0216 444 1 263

2

milyar 4 milyar
Bu ge milyar 432 milyon
milyar 435 milyo Hizmetler Dengesi kalemi
17 milyar
milyar 264
y
milyar
milyar
milyar 965 milyon ABD milyar 113
milyar 540 milyon ABD do

milyar 218 milyon AB

toplam 12 milyar
sekiz ayda 210 milyon ABD dolar
milyar

milyar
milyar


2011


| 0216 444 1 263

3

milyar 584
milyar
milyar 720 milyon ABD
milyar 581 milyon

milyar milyar 197

ay milyar milyar
662 milyon

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