LPG in World Trade 2009 - 2020

LPG Supply, Demand & Pricing LPG Shipping & Terminals

2009 / 2010 EDITION

LPG in World Trade 2009 - 2020

A Poten & Partners NGL Consulting Service
A year ago the long-predicted surge in LPG supplies seemed imminent. Today some new flows are apparent but its more of a trickle than a flood. Project delays and the recessionary conditions pervading commodity markets in 2009 have delayed the start-up of new trade flows, but the industry is still gearing up for a period of unprecedented change. Certainly the driver for increased LPG supplies remains - new crude oil and natural gas projects designed to meet rising global energy demands. But the point at which this new capacity is needed has been put back by the collapse in global markets in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the subsequent weakness of many major economies. In fact low crude oil production has contributed to reduced LPG exports from some countries in 2009.

What of demand?

World Seaborne LPG Trade 2008, MMt/y

Here too the picture in the short-term is out of synch with expected long-term trends. Demand in some retail markets has been growing; China has increased LPG imports this year, so too has Indonesia. On the other hand Western petchem markets seen as the absorber of Eastern supply surpluses have been using less LPG in 2009. Weak petchem demand has forced cracker operating rates down, while the climate for LPG cracking has been less favorable than expected. This issue of LPG in World Trade has important questions to address; Is the expected surge in LPG exports finally coming? What caused the delays and are they now resolved? Are the new volumes in total as high as previously forecast? Might the surge be more of a gradual increase?

Who will absorb the supply increase? Will China take more or less in the coming years? Do other Asian countries have more retail demand potential than it appeared a year ago? Are petchem markets going to recover and take more LPG? And if so when will that be? What does this mean for future LPG prices?

Poten & Partners, Inc. LPG in World Trade 2009 - 2020

What impact will this have on shipping? Have ship owners over-built in anticipation of trade volumes that will not materialize at all or at a different point in time? Are all parts of the shipping market similarly affected? What impact has the credit crunch had on LPG shipping and how will this shape the markets outlook? What does this mean for future shipping rates?

This issue of LPG in World Trade also looks forward to 2020 and considers what will characterize the product and shipping markets in ten years time. Poten & Partners new LPG in World Trade will try to help you make the right decisions. In a world of rapid change and strong political influence, we have steered a path based on underlying trends, drawing on our years of experience and understanding of LPG markets.

We invite you to subscribe to our new study. Various alternative subscription packages are available.

Gas Liquids Consulting Group

Poten & Partners LPG Portal
Immediate and electronic access to information is becoming even more paramount. Published information gets quickly out of date. That is why we have developed the LPG Portal database as part of our consulting services to provide accurate and detailed market information. The site covers; LGP Countries, LPG Trades, LPG Pricing, LPG Shipping and an overview of Companies involved in the LPG market

Since the late 1970s Poten & Partners has offered consulting services on supply/demand, values of the light refinery streams & gas liquids used as petrochemical feedstock. At first, concentrating on liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) propane & butane, by the 1980s we broadened our activities to include naphtha & gas condensates. Today, our Gas Liquids Consulting Group has an unmatched grasp of the LPG & gas liquids markets. Our dedicated data teams & proprietary databases provide an exceptional backbone for our services.

Our Gas Liquids Consulting Group helped develop the trade in LPG & Condensates. This market-building depended heavily on the publications we developed. These multi-client studies are still an essential part of the current gas liquids business. Through our publications we assure our clients are kept informed about the availability, pricing, consumption patterns, shipping trends & prospects of these gas markets. As well as the LPG in World Trade series our multi-client studies include; LPG in World Markets first published in 1980, this monthly report provides global coverage of: contract and spot prices, spot transactions, shipping fixtures, trends & intelligence, monthly LPG export and import volumes, producing and consuming regions Condensates in World Markets comprehensive analysis of field condensates produced in their raw form from gas/oil separators. Single Client Studies are available on request and tailored to suit individual client needs.

Poten & Partners, Inc. LPG in World Trade 2009 - 2020

LPG in World Trade 2009 - 2020

A Poten & Partners NGL Consulting Service LPG Supply, Demand & Pricing Contents
Table of Contents Executive Summary Global/regional overview LPG Trade flows Petrochemical Market Outlook Sensitivities LPG Pricing Structure & Forecast East of Suez LPG Overview
o Middle East LPG Supply & Demand Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Abu Dhabi Iran and elsewhere

Asia-Pacific LPG Supply & Demand Northeast Asia Southeast and South Asia China East of Suez LPG Forecast Conclusions

West of Suez LPG Overview

o Africa LPG Supply & Demand North Africa West Africa European LPG Supply & Demand Northern Europe Southern Europe and the CIS Latin America LPG Supply & Demand USA LPG supply/Demand

o o

Countries Section
o Review of key seaborne LPG importing and exporting countries

Poten & Partners, Inc. LPG in World Trade 2009 - 2020

LPG in World Trade 2009 - 2020

A Poten & Partners NGL Consulting Service LPG Shipping Contents
Introduction Executive Summary LPG Ship Values
o Newbuidings Overview Demand Factors Cost Factors LPG Carrier Newbuildings Newbuilding Yard Availability Newbuilding Prices Scrap Prices LPG Carriers Operating Costs Operating Costs Voyage Costs LPG Carriers Values by Segment

LPG Shipping Economics

o o o o o o o Spot Freight Rate Economics Return on Investment LPG Vessel Price Assessment Economic Comparison between the Tanker Sectors Operating Costs Economics Bunkering Costs Economics Shipyard Statistics 2000-2008

LPG Fleet
o

The VLGC Fleet **(the below points are detailed in each Fleet segment) Profile Issues SWOT Analysis Supply Outlook Demand Outlook Supply/Demand Balance Rate Outlook o The LGC Fleet o The MCG Fleet o The Large Semi-Ref Fleet o The Small-Ref & Ethylene Fleet o The Pressure Fleet

LPG Shipping Companies Appendix LPG Fleet LPG Supply/Demand

Poten & Partners, Inc. LPG in World Trade 2009 - 2020

SUBSCRIPTION AGREEMENT
View Point, 20 Balderton Street, London W1K 6TL UK Poten & Partners, Inc. SUBSCRIBER COMPANY (Bill to Address) Name Company Address City State Country Phone Fax Email Postcode Tel:+44 207 493 7272 Fax:+44 207 629 7078 PRIMARY AUTHORIZED USER (Ship to address) Name Company Address City State Country Phone Fax Email Postcode

PRODUCTS: Please indicate below the number of copies of LPG in World Trade 2009-2020 that you would like to purchase. In the event you purchase more than one copy, please list the required information on the Additional Authorized Users Form.

Option A B C D

LPG in World Trade 2009-2020 Three hard-bound copies, plus electronic copies (Complete Service, including access to LPG Portal) Three hard-bound copies, plus electronic copies LPG Supply, Demand & Pricing Only Three hard-bound copies, plus electronic copies LPG Shipping & Terminals Only Additional hard-bound copies, plus electronic copy

Price $20,600 $12,600 $12,600 $600 ea

SUBSCRIPTION FEES: The undersigned hereby subscribes to Option _____, which includes ____ hardbound copies and _____ electronic copies of LPG in World Trade 2009 2020 and agrees to pay Poten $___________, plus applicable taxes. All Subscription Fees are in US Dollars. By signing below you certify that you have read and agree to abide by the General Terms and Conditions, a copy of which is attached for your reference.

Company Signature Name Title Date

PLEASE RETURN THE COMPLETED SUBSCRIPTION AGREEMENT BY FAX TO: Ms. Carmel Forbes at (+44) 207 493 7078 or email cforbes@poten.com

Poten & Partners, Inc. LPG in World Trade 2009 - 2020

Additional Primary Authorized Users

View Point, 20 Balderton Street, London W1K 6TL UK Poten & Partners, Inc. PRIMARY AUTHORIZED USER Name Company Address City State Country Phone Fax Email PRIMARY AUTHORIZED USER Name Company Address City State Country Phone Fax Email PRIMARY AUTHORIZED USER Name Company Address City State Country Phone Fax Email Postcode Postcode Postcode Tel:+44 207 493 7272 Fax:+44 207 629 7078 PRIMARY AUTHORIZED USER Name Company Address City State Country Phone Fax Email PRIMARY AUTHORIZED USER Name Company Address City State Country Phone Fax Email PRIMARY AUTHORIZED USER Name Company Address City State Country Phone Fax Email Postcode Postcode Postcode

Poten & Partners, Inc. LPG in World Trade 2009 - 2020

GENERAL TERMS AND CONDITIONS Multi-Client Reports

1. General Terms and Conditions. These General Terms and Conditions apply to the LPG in World Trade 2009-2020 as described in the attached Subscription Agreement, including the print version, as well as any electronic versions, (collectively, the "Products"). The Products may be accessed via the Poten & Partners, Inc. (Poten) web portal (the Poten Portal). The Poten Portal may contain other reports and services which will be subject to separate terms and conditions and which are in addition to these General Terms and Conditions. The electronic version of LPG in World Trade 2009-2020 may be provided in Personal Document Format and access may be limited by digital rights management restrictions. 2. Subscriber and Authorized Users. Upon full payment of the Subscription Fee described in the attached Subscription Agreement, Poten will grant Subscriber Company a nonexclusive, non-assignable, non-transferable license to: (a) permit the Primary Authorized User (s) (as listed in the Subscription Agreement) and other directors, officers and employees of the Subscriber Company who work in the same offices as the ship to address listed in the Subscription Agreement (the Secondary Authorized Users, together with the Primary Authorized Users, the Authorized Users) the right to use the print version of the Products for his/her internal use; and (b) if the Subscriber Company has subscribed for an electronic copy (as described in section 3), the Primary Authorized User (s) (as listed in the Subscription Agreement) shall be provided electronic access for his/her internal use. The Subscriber Company will inform each of the Authorized Users of the Subscriber Companys obligations under these General Terms and Conditions. 3. Electronic access. Poten intends to restrict access to LPG in World Trade 2009-2020 by means of digital rights management software of its choice. If the Subscriber Company subscribes for electronic access, it may be required to register, download and install necessary software for each Primary Authorized User(s). 4. Primary Authorized User(s) Names. In the event Poten offers access to the Products via the Poten portal, each Primary Authorized User will be assigned a login and password (collectively, User Codes). Each Primary Authorized User is responsible for the confidentiality of its User Codes, and hereby agrees that the User Codes are for its personal use only and will not be provided to anyone. The Primary Authorized Users agree to immediately notify Poten in the event that any or all of its User Codes are lost or stolen, or they believe that the confidentiality of any or all of its User Codes has been compromised in any way. 5. Copyright & Use Restrictions. The Products are, and shall be at all times, solely owned by the Poten and, are protected by copyright laws, trademarks, and other intellectual properties laws. Subscriber and its Authorized Users may not (a) reproduce, redistribute, resell or otherwise transfer the Products, or (b) store or post the Products on any intranet, extranet or other electronic system. 6. Confidentiality. Poten may disclose to Subscriber through the Products information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise not generally available to the public. Subscriber agrees that it shall treat such information as confidential and shall use such information only for its internal use. Confidential information does not include (a) information which is or becomes generally available to the public other than as a result of a disclosure in violation of the Subscription Agreement or another confidentiality undertaking, (b) information which was already known to the Subscriber prior to being furnished pursuant to the Subscription Agreement, and (c) information which becomes available on a non-confidential basis from a source other than Subscriber if such source was not subject to any prohibition against transmitting the information to Subscriber

7. Subscription Fees. Payment is due upon acceptance of the Subscription Agreement by Poten. Subscriber will not be entitled to any refund if Subscriber cancels its subscription after the Poten has sent the Products (in printed or electronic format) to the Subscriber Company. Sales tax, VAT and similar governmental charges and fees are Subscribers responsibility and will be added and billed to Subscriber, if applicable. Poten shall have the right to charge one and one quarter percent (1.25%) interest per month on any amounts due outstanding beyond thirty (30) days. Interest will be calculated based on a thirty-day month beginning on the date the payment is due and ending on the date the payment is received. 8. Termination. Poten may terminate access to any or all of the Products upon breach by Subscriber Company (or any of the Authorized Users) of any of these General Terms and Conditions. Any such termination will not limit any other rights available to Poten. Poten reserves the right to provide electronic access via the Poten Portal or another password protected website and/or to provide the electronic copy to the Primary Authorized Users via CDrom or similar medium at any time. 9. Limited Warranties & Liability. The Products will be provided "as is," without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Subscriber acknowledges that the nature of the Products requires that Poten gather market intelligence from various public and industry sources. Poten will use reasonable care to confirm such information when possible but cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information. Subscriber acknowledges that the Products may contain some nonconformities, defects, or errors. Poten does not warrant that the Products will meet the needs or expectations of Subscriber, or that defects, errors, omissions or nonconformities can or will be corrected. In no event shall the Poten or their respective officers, directors, shareholders, employees, agents or representatives or their affiliates or any of their respective officers, directors, shareholders, employees, agents or representatives (collectively, the Group) be liable, whether in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, for any direct, punitive, special, consequential or indirect damages, claims or losses (including without limitation lost profits or lost opportunity) arising out of or in connection with the use of the Products. 10. Governing Law. These General Terms and Conditions and the Subscription Agreement shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the State of New York. 11. Entire Agreement. These General Terms and Conditions, together with the Subscription Agreement, represent the entire agreement between the Subscriber and Poten with respect to the subject matter covered herein and shall not be modified except in a writing signed by both parties. Any rights not expressly granted herein are reserved. 12. Severability. The provisions of these General Terms and Conditions are intended to be severable. If for any reason any provision of these terms shall be unlawful, void, or for any reason unenforceable, then that provision shall be deemed severed from these terms and shall not affect the validity and enforceability of any remaining provisions. 13. Survival. The obligations and other terms and conditions contained in paragraphs 5, 6, 9 and 10 of these General Terms and Conditions shall survive the expiration and termination of the Subscription Agreement.