National Research Nuclear University MEPhI

International Centers for Nuclear Education and Nuclear Knowledge Management

Energy Development and International Regime Security and Nonproliferation. Prof.NRNU V.M.Murogov
Culture Nonproliferation Round table discussion 07 October 2011 IATE NRNU MEPHI
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IIASA/WEC: Prospect for the power industry up to 2050

In developing countries the energy demand will increase as follows: 3 to 5 times for primary energy 5 to 7 times for electricity.

In developing countries the increase in demand for primary energy will be over 70% of the total growth in the world.

Consumption energy in the world

3 Reference: IEA

IAEA

FIRST CHAIN REACTION

BEGINNING OF COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION OF PLUTONIUM

OAK RIDGE K-25 PLANT

THE TRINITY EXPLOSION, 0.016 SECONDS AFTER DETONATION

1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2010

US AND USSR NUCLEAR STOCKPILES

WORLDWIDE NUCLEAR TESTING, 1945-1998

PROJECT 667 A YANKEE CLASS

RUSSIAS SHARK

CHICAGO PILE

EBR-1

THE FIRST NPP

CALDER HALL

SHIPPING PORT

Construction of nuclear power plants in the world

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TYPES OF NPP IN THE WORLD

Development of regional nuclear generating capacities

140 120 100 140

North America
GWe

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Western Europe

GWe

80 60 40 20 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

90 80 70 60

Eastern Europe & CIS

90 80 70 60

Asia

GWe

40 30 20 10 0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

GWe

50

50 40 30 20 10 0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

THE THREE MILE ISLAND ACCIDENT

THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

Nuclear Power Today: At a glance

375 GWe installed (approx 11% of global generating capacity)

15% of global electricity supply

More than 14,000 reactor-years of operating experience A proven technology that provides clean electricity at predictable & competitive costs

Continuously improved economic & safety performance

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REACTORS UNDER CONSTRUCTION BY TYPE AND NET ELECTRICAL POWER. 2009

Countries are going to use nuclear energy during 2015-2030 and taking some initial actions for that.
Latin America: 3 + 2 expected new (Chile, Peru) Western Europe: 9 + 3 expected new (Italy, Portugal, Turkey) Eastern Europe: 10 + 3 expected new (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Poland)

Africa: 1 + 5 expected new (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunis)

Middle East&South Asia: 3 + 1 expected new (Bangladesh) South East Asia&the Pacific: 0 + 4 expected new (Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand) Far East: 3 + 3 expected new (North Korea, Philippines, Vietnam) In total about 21 new countries are considering to start using nuclear energy during 2015-2030
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IAEA

Per-capita electricity consumption and projected nuclear power growth in selected countries and in Africa
Country Years Annual electricity consumption, kWh/capita 1208 421 384 5320 Installed or projected nuclear power capacity, GW(e) 5.3 32-40 2.6 29 0.42 4.2 21 40--45 16.8 26.4 13228 514 99 ~110 1.8 1.8-4.1 0-128%
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IAEA

Projected growth in nuclear power capacity 6-7 times 11 times 10 times 2 times (100%) 57% 11%

China India Pakistan Russia ROK USA Africa

2002 2020 2002 2022 2002 2030 2002 2020 2005 2015 2002 2020 2002 2020

Energy Imported Dependence

100%

40

Level of Import Dependence

>80%

69

>50%

97

>20%

135

importers

164

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Number of countries

Consumption energy in the world

29 Reference: IEA

IAEA

Nuclear energy KWh/cap in the different region (2008)

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IAEA

Relative energy content of natural fuel resources

U-238 - 86,7%

Coal - 8,7%

U-235 - 0,4%

Gas - 3,4%
Oil - 0,8%

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Development NP the role of Innovation

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200

IPCC SRES

GWe installed

1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1980

History

Innovation (gap)

-- (IAEA) high/low
1990 2000 2010 2020

- IEA
2030 2040
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2050

IAEA

There will be the need for structural changes in the nuclear energy industry complex

Nuclear fuel breeding (fast breeder reactors) and closed nuclear fuel cycle. Application of nuclear energy for process technologies of the industry (high-temperature reactors). Regional small- and medium-sized nuclear power plants.
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Necessary conditions for a large-scale nuclear power development

Security safeguards
nuclear radiation ecological non-proliferation

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Factors influencing the proliferation risk

Increasing of the scale of nuclear power
Growth of the number of nuclear power plants, including regional smallsized reactors, Growth of the number of nuclear fuel cycle facilities and their nomenclature, Increase of amounts and traffic flows of nuclear materials, Increase of radioactive waste volumes.

Structural changes in the nuclear energy industry complex

Nuclear fuel breeding, use of fast breeder reactors, SNF reprocessing, nuclear fuel recycle, closed nuclear fuel cycle.

The development of nuclear power in the current non-nuclear countries which are historically not ready for the use of nuclear technology (nuclear security and safeguards against the proliferation).

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Goals focused on increasing the stability of non-proliferation regime The changes in the developing nuclear power can result in more accessibility of nuclear materials and technologies and increase of proliferation risk. New approaches are to be developed and introduced that would provide at least keeping the risk at the current level. Such measures are necessary in all areas that assure the nonproliferation regime: political,
institutional, technical.

A systematic analysis is required including a quantitative assessment of proliferation risk as a tool for solving these problems.
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INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY IAEA

Some stages of international initiatives on the peaceful use of nuclear energy

The establishment of IAEA

1953 the Atoms for Pease Initiative in the United Nations; 1954 the formulation of the General Assembly Resolution on the establishment of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); 1957 the establishment of IAEA; 1955, 1958, 1964, 1971 the United

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Three Pillars of the IAEA

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THE NONPROLIFERATION TREATY

Two major international initiatives

The complex nature of nuclear knowledge

Atomic, Molecular and Condensed Matter Physics 10% Nuclear Physics 11% Life Sciences 18% Safeguards 0,4% Isotopes 1% Non-Nuclear Energy 1% Engineering & Instrumentation 9% Economic, Legal & Social Environmental & Earth 2% Sciences 3% Fusion Research and Technology 7% Nuclear Power & Safety 6% Chemistry 4%

Nuclear Materials 9%

Elementary Particle Physics 16%

Nuclear Fuel Cycle & Radioactive Waste 3%

Asian Network for Education in Nuclear Technology (ANENT)

Established in 2004 at the TM in Malaysia
A regional partnership for NKM and E&T 28 member institutions from 12 countries, and 5 collaborating organizations.
Australia China India Indonesia Korea Malaysia

Mongolia

Pakistan

The Philippines

Sri Lanka

Thailand

Vietnam

ARCCNM

ASNM

ENEN

WNU

MEPhI

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Production of Manual
Economics
Safety (Reactor) Safety (Fuel Cycle)

Proliferation Resistance

INPRO Manual

Infra structure

Waste Management

Environment

Fast Reactor Knowledge Partnership

IAEA

DATA
JAPAN

+ links to other Knowledge Resources

KNOWHOW

INFORMATION

FAST REACTORS

USA

INDIA

GERMANY

IAEAbroker and provider

END

USER

FRANCE

General Principles: Electronic Documents Access Confidentiality and Intellectual property 45 rights

RUSSIA

UK

The Generation IV International Forum (GIF)

International initiative (currently 13 members) to

support R&D, within a time frame from 15 to 20 years and to reach technical maturity by 2030

The 4 GIF evaluation areas:

Sustainability Safety and reliability Economics Proliferation Resistance
and Physical Protection
The GIF Charter The First 11 signatories
E.U.

Designed for different applications Electricity, Hydrogen Desalinated water, Heat

GIF charter signed in 2001, Sw 2002, Euratom 2003, + new 46

Generations of nuclear energy

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VMMurogov@ MEPHI.RU

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