2QFY2012 Result Update | Education

October 21, 2011

NIIT
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 2QFY12 383.8 56.0 14.6 30.2 1QFY12 321.2 30.7 9.6 13.1 % chg (qoq) 19.5 82.0 501bp 129.5 2QFY11 345.8 53.2 15.4 28.5 % chg (yoy) 11.0 5.2 (80)bp 5.8

BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Education 766 0.8 72/41 114,478 2 16,786 5,050 NIIT.BO

`46 `60
12 Months

Source: Company, Angel Research

For 2QFY2012, NIIT reported modest performance, which was in-line with our expectations. Revenue growth was driven by all businesses, but operational performance was dented due to the ILS business, which posted a 273bp yoy dip in EBITDA margin. The company will be getting US$75mn as net income from the divestment of Element K business, which the company will use to reduce its debt by `250cr. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 2QFY2012, NIIT reported consolidated revenue of `384cr, up 19.5% yoy. Revenue from ILS, SLS and CLS businesses increased by 11.9%, 12.4% and 9.6% yoy to `180.2cr, `40.5cr and `163.0cr, respectively. Blended EBITDA margin of NIIT improved by 501bp yoy to 14.6% on the back of margin expansion in SLS as well as CLS businesses. These gains in margins by the CLS and SLS businesses were partially overshadowed by margin decline in the ILS business and higher operating expenses due to facility overlap and some pre-operative expenses related to skill building solutions. Outlook and valuation: The hiring environment in the Indian IT sector is strengthening, as indicated by Indian IT players such as Infosys and TCS aiming to collectively hire ~1,05,000 people in FY2012. Thus, we expect ILS to record strong growth of 16% yoy in FY2012, with strengthening of the hiring environment expected to result in demand for vocational courses. NIIT is strategically moving towards turning asset light by targeting more annuity-based revenue. Management aims to do so by being selective in government SLS contracts, which are highly capital-intensive and have long debtor cycles (thus impacting returns), targeting more private schools in the SLS business. We have valued NIIT on an SOTP basis, arriving at a target EV/EBITDA of 3.5x on FY2013E consolidated EBITDA of `176.4cr, arriving at a target price of `60. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research

NIIT@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 34.0 10.4 28.5 27.2

Abs. (%) Sensex NIIT Ltd.

3m

1yr

3yr

(9.0) (17.2) 57.1 (20.1) (31.2) 41.4

FY2009 1149 14.1 70 (7.7) 10.3 4.2 11.0 1.6 14.6 6.5 0.8 7.8

FY2010 1199 4.4 70 0.6 13.1 4.3 10.9 1.5 13.9 9.0 0.8 6.3

FY2011 1248 4.1 92 31.2 12.8 5.6 8.3 1.4 16.5 8.0 0.7 5.7

FY2012E 1184 (5.2) 91 (1.6) 13.6 5.5 8.4 1.0 11.9 9.1 0.4 3.0

FY2013E 1084 (8.5) 131 44.5 16.3 8.0 5.8 0.9 15.6 11.0 0.3 1.8

Srishti Anand
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6820 srishti.anand@angelbroking.com

Ankita Somani
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 1: 2QFY2012 performance

(` cr) Net revenue Operating expenses EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Other income PBT Income tax PAT Share of associates' net profit Adj. PAT EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) PAT margin (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research

2QFY12 383.8 327.8 56.0 25.0 31.0 (9.2) 21.8 2.1 19.7 10.5 30.2 1.8 14.6 8.1 8.0

1QFY12 321.2 290.4 30.7 22.7 8.0 (6.4) 1.6 (1.3) 2.9 10.2 13.1 0.8 9.6 2.5 4.2

% chg (qoq) 19.5 12.9 82.0 10.1 285.0 1,226.2 (261.5) 568.4 129.5 128.8 501bp 556bp 387bp

2QFY11 345.8 292.6 53.2 21.6 31.6 (9.9) 21.7 3.7 18.0 10.5 28.5 1.7 15.4 9.1 8.5

% chg (yoy) 11.0 12.0 5.2 15.7 (2.1) 0.2 (43.2) 9.2 5.8 5.8 (80)bp (107)bp (44)bp

1HFY12 704.9 618.2 86.7 47.7 39.0 (15.6) 23.4 0.8 22.6 20.7 43.3 2.6 12.3 5.5 6.3

1HFY11 623.8 541.9 81.9 41.9 40.0 (17.3) 22.7 2.2 20.5 21.0 41.5 2.5 13.1 6.4 6.8

% chg (yoy) 13.0 14.1 5.8 13.8 (2.5) 3.0 (63.6) 10.2 4.3 4.3 (83)bp (88)bp (56)bp

Modest revenue growth but margin declines

For 2QFY2012, NIIT reported revenue of `384cr, up 19.5% yoy. The school learning solutions (SLS) business emerged as the primary growth driver for the company and reported 12.4% yoy growth in revenue, which led to a 10bp yoy increase in its revenue share (10.5%) in NIITs overall revenue. Revenue from individual learning solution (ILS) and corporate learning solutions (CLS) businesses grew by 11.9% and 9.6% yoy, respectively.

Exhibit 2: Revenue growth (Segment wise, yoy)

200 150 100 174.4

(%)

50 0 (50) 3.2 (7.0) JAS09 16.2

17.2

10.6 (3.9)

11.0 12.4 11.9 9.6

(59.0) JAS10

JAS11

(100) ILS
Source: Company, Angel Research

SLS

CLS

Consolidated

October 21, 2011

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 3: Revenue mix (Segment wise)

120 100 80 37.4 43.0 10.4 42.5 10.5

(%)

60 24.4 40 20 0 JAS09 ILS 38.2

46.6

47.0

JAS10 SLS CLS

JAS11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Revenue performance (Segment wise)

(` cr) ILS SLS CLS JAS 11 180.2 40.5 163.0 JAS 10 161.1 36.0 148.7 AMJ 11 117.8 40.3 163.0 % chg (yoy) 11.9 12.4 9.6 % chg (qoq) 53.0 0.4 0.0

Source: Company, Angel Research

ILS: For 2QFY2012, revenue of the ILS business grew by 11.9% yoy to `180.2cr, with global enrollments growing by 5% yoy to 1,78,830; diploma enrollments, short-term modular enrollment and career IT enrollments increasing by 7%, 11% and 4% yoy, respectively; and a strong surge witnessed in banking enrollments. Also, placements continued to be strong, especially for the IT and banking sectors, posting combined growth of 15% yoy. The pending order book of this segment currently stands at `145.2cr, with 70% of it being executable in the next 12 months. Also, cloud campus (new initiative by NIIT) was implemented in over 190 centers. EBITDA margin of this segment declined by 273bp yoy to 20.8% during the quarter.

October 21, 2011

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 5: ILS Enrolment growth

200,000 180,000 160,000 11.1 7.7 4.5 3.6 4 11.5 11.2 16

12

Nos.

120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 AMJ10 JAS 10 OND 10 JFM 11 AMJ11 JAS11

Enrollment
Source: Company, Angel Research

yoy growth (%)

SLS: Revenue of the SLS business grew by 12.4% yoy to `40.5 in 2QFY2012. During the quarter, the company added 133 private schools. Revenue from non-government schools grew by 24% yoy and now contributes 46% to total SLS revenue. The pending order book of this segment stands at `471.8cr, with 31% being executable in the next 12 months. For 2QFY2012, EBITDA margin of the business improved by 472bp yoy to 11.6%.

Exhibit 6: Trend in private school addition in the SLS segment

250 200 150
Nos

218 196 173 132 133

100 50 0 AMJ10 JAS 10 OND 10 JFM 11 AMJ 11 JAS 11 Private schools 35

Source: Company, Angel Research

CLS: Revenue of the CLS business grew by 9.6% yoy to `163.0cr on the back of robust volume growth of 14.0% yoy, driven by growth in managed training services (62% yoy) and online learning products. Unfavorable cross-currency movement impacted revenue of the CLS business by `6.0cr (~4% yoy). Order intake during the quarter stood at US$25.4mn, with the pending order book standing at US$27.9mn, of which 62% is executable over the next 12 months. EBITDA margin of the CLS segment increased by 103bp yoy to 9.39% on account of strong traction from managed services contacts. Unfavorable cross-currency movement negatively affected the segments EBITDA margin by `1.1cr (67bp yoy).

October 21, 2011

(%)

140,000

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 7: Volume growth trend in CLS

30 21.0 20 15.3 10.8 10 (0.5) JFM10 (10) Volume growth (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research

13.0

12.0

14.0

(%)

AMJ10

JAS 10

OND 10

JFM 11

AMJ 11

JAS 11

Consolidated margin declines: Blended EBITDA margin of NIIT improved by 501bp yoy to 14.6% on the back of margin expansion in SLS as well as CLS businesses. These gains in margins were partially overshadowed by the margin decline in the ILS business and higher operating expenses due to facility overlap and some pre-operative expenses related to skill building solutions.

Exhibit 8: EBITDA margin (Segment wise)

26 22.6 22 18
(%)

23.5 20.8

15.4 13.8 11.6 8.9 7.9 8.3 8.3 9.3

14.6

14 10 6 JAS09

ILS
Source: Company, Angel Research

SLS

JAS10 CLS

JAS11 Consolidated

October 21, 2011

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Outlook and valuation

The ILS and CLS businesses are emerging to be NIITs growth drivers. We expect enrollment growth for ILS-IT to be stronger in FY2012, with strong recruitment plans announced by Indian IT majors (including Infosys and TCS) and initial gross hiring targets of 45,000 and 60,000 in FY2012, respectively. We expect ILS to return to its strong growth momentum of 16% yoy in FY2012, with strengthening of the hiring environment by Indian IT players, thereby resulting in demand for vocational courses. CLS, which was heavily impacted by the downturn, has rebounded with respect to growth and has managed to bag a strong order book. Demand for discretionary services, including training outsourcing, learning products and managed training services, is gaining traction. Also, demand for new business courses such as cloud campus, IFBI, Imperia and Uniqua is expected to strengthen with the hiring environment turning positive in the areas of management, commercial banking and BPO. In the SLS business, the company is witnessing strong traction from non-GSA schools and has added 887 schools since 1QFY2011. NIIT is strategically moving towards turning asset-light by targeting more annuity-based revenue. Management aims to do so by being selective in government SLS contracts, which are highly capital-intensive and have long debtor cycles (thus impacting returns), targeting more private schools in the SLS business. Also, annuity contracts bagged in CLS (related to learning products and MTS) are expected to accelerate revenue growth and improve margins. With the realignment of its focus, management expects to improve the companys profitability, reduce debtor cycle and repay debt by ~`250cr from the proceeds of the transaction of divestment of Element-K business in FY2012 itself, which will improve the companys profitability. Hence, we expect the company to post a PAT CAGR of 19.3% over FY2011-13E. We have valued NIIT on an SOTP basis, arriving at a target EV/EBITDA of 3.5x on FY2013E consolidated EBITDA of `176.4cr, arriving at a target price of `60. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.

October 21, 2011

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 9: Segmental expectations

(` cr) ILS Revenue yoy growth (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) SLS Revenue yoy growth (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) CLS Revenue yoy growth (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Consolidated Revenue yoy growth (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research

FY2009 432 22.9 79 18.3 138 36.7 21 15.5 579 5.0 18 3.2 1,149 14.1 119 10.3

FY2010 457 7.4 83 18.2 200 44.6 30 14.8 542 (6.3) 44 8.1 1,199 4.4 157 13.1

FY2011 517 9.5 95 18.4 148 (26.0) 17 11.4 584 7.6 47 8.1 1,248 4.1 159 12.8

FY2012E 594 15.0 104 17.6 166 11.8 18 10.9 424 (27.3) 38 9.0 1,184 (5.2) 161 13.6

FY2013E 669 12.7 134 20.1 189 14.0 20 10.8 225 (46.9) 22 9.6 1,084 (8.5) 176 16.3

Exhibit 10: Change in estimates

FY2012E Parameter (` cr) Net revenue EBITDA Other income PBT PAT Earlier estimates 1,192 161 (8) 67 93 Revised estimates 1,184 161 (12) 68 91 Variation (%) (0.7) (0.3) 47.8 0.9 (2.6) Earlier estimates 1,090 173 22 121 133 FY2013E Revised estimates 1,084 176 16 119 131 Variation (%) (0.6) 2.0 (26.7) (2.0) (1.6)

Source: Company, Angel Research

October 21, 2011

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 11: One-year forward EV/EBITDA

3,500 3,000 2,500

(` cr)

2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Jul-11
3

EV
Source: Company, Angel Research

16

13

Exhibit 12: Valuation metric for NIIT (Based on FY2013E)

FY2013E (` cr) ILS SLS CLS Target EV for NIIT Debt Cash and cash equivalent Target Mcap for NIIT Value per share for NIIT (`)
Source: Company, Angel Research

EBITDA 134.3 20.3 21.8

Target EV/EBITDA (X) 4.0 2.0 2.0

Target EV 537.3 40.6 43.5 621.4 87.4 453.6 987.6 60.0

October 21, 2011

Oct-11

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 13: Recommendation summary

Company HCL Tech Hexaware Infosys Infotech Entp. KPIT Cummins Mahindra Satyam MindTree Mphasis NIIT^ Persistent TCS Tech Mahindra Wipro Reco. Buy Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Buy Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Accumulate CMP (`) 412 87 2,723 114 167 70 381 319 46 315 1,048 571 354 Tgt. price (`) 545 92 127 79 462 382 60 1,220 734 374 Upside (%) 32.2 5.7 11.4 13.4 21.2 19.8 29.2 16.4 28.5 5.7 Target P/E (x) 14.0 11.0 18.0 8.5 10.0 11.0 10.0 11.5 7.5 9.0 20.0 9.0 15.3 FY2013 EBITDA (%) 17.7 16.8 30.6 15.7 15.4 14.6 14.4 15.5 16.3 20.0 28.7 16.3 18.3 FY2013E P/E (x) 10.6 10.6 17.3 7.6 10.2 9.7 8.3 8.1 5.8 8.6 17.2 7.0 14.5 FY2011-13E EPS CAGR (%) 26.1 68.7 14.8 8.9 19.9 30.4 35.6 0.4 19.3 2.5 17.0 28.5 6.1 FY2013E RoCE (%) 20.6 18.1 24.0 15.0 18.6 10.8 18.6 13.4 11.0 15.8 29.8 13.6 12.9 FY2013E RoE (%) 22.4 18.8 22.5 12.4 17.1 13.5 16.5 14.5 15.6 14.8 30.9 20.2 18.7

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: ^ Valued on SOTP basis

October 21, 2011

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Profit and loss statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating expenses EBITDA % of net sales Dep. and amortization % of net sales EBIT % of net sales Other income Profit before tax Provision for tax % of PBT PAT Share in profit of associates Profit after minority interest EPS (`) FY2009 1,149 1,030 119 10.3 65 5.6 54 4.7 (5) 49 10 21.1 39 31 70 4.2 FY2010 1,199 1,043 157 13.1 75 6.3 82 6.8 (33) 49 11 22.2 38 32 70 4.3 FY2011 1,248 1,089 159 12.8 86 6.8 74 5.9 (18) 56 9 16.0 47 45 92 5.6 FY2012E 1,184 1,023 161 13.6 81 6.9 79 6.7 (12) 68 20 29.2 48 43 91 5.5 FY2013E 1,084 907 176 16.3 74 6.8 102 9.5 16 119 38 32.1 80 50 131 8.0

October 21, 2011

10

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Balance sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Capital employed Equity capital ESOP outstanding Reserves and surplus Currency translation reserve Net worth Secured loans Unsecured loans Total debt Minority interest Total capital employed Capital deployed Gross block Accumulated depreciation Net block Capital WIP Total fixed assets Investments Inventories Sundry debtors Cash at bank Loans and advances Other current assets Sundry creditors Other liabilities Provisions Net deferred tax assets Miscellaneous expense Total capital deployed 784 273 511 62 573 107 10 290 75 150 44 241 171 45 35 826 814 322 492 45 536 127 13 340 62 154 70 211 168 42 30 911 877 397 480 62 542 164 15 390 53 135 117 234 243 45 31 925 711 478 233 40 273 80 10 334 309 142 70 196 147 36 34 872 746 552 194 40 234 75 10 288 454 139 66 174 139 38 17 932 33 0 416 28 477 252 96 348 1 826 33 463 8 504 254 151 405 2 911 33 517 7 557 265 101 366 3 925 33 720 8 761 108 108 3 872 33 800 8 841 87 87 3 932 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

October 21, 2011

11

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Cash flow statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Pre tax profit from oper. Depreciation Pre tax cash from oper. Other inc./prior period ad Net cash from operations Tax Share of profit from ass. Cash profits (Inc)/dec in sundry debtors (Inc)/dec in current assets (Inc)/dec in inventories (Inc)/dec in loans and adv. Inc/(dec) in sundry creditors Inc/(dec) in other current liab. Net trade working capital Cash flow from oper. actv. (Inc)/dec in fixed assets (Inc)/dec in investments (Inc)/dec in deferred tax asset Cash flow from investing actv. Inc/(dec) in debt Inc/(dec) in equity/premium Inc/(dec) in minority interest Dividends Cash flow from fin. activities Cash generated/(utilised) Cash at start of the year Cash at end of the year FY2009 29 65 94 20 114 10 31 135 (86) (14) 3 (20) 56 40 (20) 114 (240) (17) (10) (267) 142 31 (1) 25 147 (5) 80 75 FY2010 45 75 120 4 124 11 32 145 (50) (26) (3) (4) (31) (5) (118) 27 (38) (21) 5 (55) 56 (16) 2 27 15 (13) 75 62 FY2011 39 86 125 2 126 9 45 163 (49) (48) (3) 19 24 78 20 183 (91) (37) (1) (129) (39) 5 1 30 (63) (9) 62 53 FY2012E 62 81 144 9 153 20 43 176 56 48 5 (7) (38) (105) (41) 135 188 84 (3) 269 (257) 147 36 (147) 256 53 309 FY2013E 102 74 176 16 193 38 50 205 46 3 3 (22) (6) 25 230 (35) 5 17 (13) (21) 51 (72) 145 309 454

October 21, 2011

12

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/sales) Asset turnover ratio (sales/assets) Leverage ratio (assets/equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios(x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days Payable days 2.0 79 76 2.2 96 79 2.3 107 75 4.3 103 70 4.6 97 70 6.5 9.2 14.6 9.0 12.1 13.9 8.0 11.4 16.5 9.1 17.9 11.9 11.0 28.2 15.6 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.4 1.7 8.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.3 1.8 7.5 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.3 1.7 8.4 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.4 1.1 6.3 0.7 1.2 0.1 1.2 1.1 9.6 4.2 8.2 1.3 29.0 4.3 8.8 1.4 30.6 5.6 10.8 1.6 33.8 5.5 10.4 1.9 46.2 8.0 12.4 2.6 51.1 11.0 5.7 1.6 2.8 0.8 7.8 1.1 10.9 5.3 1.5 3.0 0.8 6.3 1.1 8.3 4.3 1.4 3.3 0.7 5.7 1.0 8.4 4.5 1.0 4.1 0.4 3.0 0.6 5.8 3.7 0.9 5.6 0.3 1.8 0.3 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

October 21, 2011

13

NIIT | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered

NIIT Ltd No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

October 21, 2011

14