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dollars dollars dollars rate dollars rate dollars rate dollars dollars dollars dollars dollars dollars dollars shares shares shares
407,099,084 33,000,000 374,099,084 35% 243,164,405 11.72% 2,075,489,968 11.72% 1,488,587,976 297,500,000 162,600,000 502,630,000 120,680,079 37,476,173 1,287,901,723 82,722,458 17,874,622 100,597,080
dollars dollars dollars rate dollars rate dollars rate dollars dollars dollars dollars dollars dollars dollars shares shares shares
407,099,084 33,000,000 374,099,084 35% 243,164,405 11.72% 2,075,489,968 11.72% 1,488,587,976 297,500,000 162,600,000 37,476,173 1,911,211,802 82,722,458 17,874,622 70,128,604 170,725,684
dollars
12.80
dollars
11.19
Method #2 - Cash Flow to Equity Start: Distributions from Liquefaction project Less: Existing LNG debt interest costs Less: LNG overhead costs Equals: Pre-tax cash flow to equity Less: Taxes Equals: After-tax cash flow to equity Multiply by: Cash flow multiple Equals: Unadjusted LNG equity value in 2015 Discount at: LNG cost of equity Equals: FCFE perpetuity value in 2011 Add: value of NOL tax shield Add: Unrestricted cash balance Less: PV of after-tax cash burn 2012-2014 Less: PV of after-tax Commercial Bonus Pool cash pmnts Equals: Adjusted LNG equity value in 2011 Start: Current LNG share count Add: Commercial Bonus Pool dilution Equals: Adjusted share count
dollars dollars dollars dollars rate dollars multiple dollars rate dollars dollars dollars dollars dollars dollars dollars
407,099,084 33,659,175 33,000,000 340,439,909 35% 221,285,941 10.4x 2,309,874,123 11.72% 1,656,693,550 297,500,000 162,600,000 120,680,079 37,476,173 1,958,637,297 82,722,458 17,874,622 100,597,080
Method #2 - Cash Flow to Equity Start: Distributions from Liquefaction project Less: Existing LNG debt interest costs Less: LNG overhead costs Equals: Pre-tax cash flow to equity Less: Taxes Equals: After-tax cash flow to equity Multiply by: Cash flow multiple Equals: Unadjusted LNG equity value in 2015 Discount at: LNG cost of equity Equals: FCFE perpetuity value in 2011 Add: value of existing NOL tax shield in 2015 dollars Add: Unrestricted cash balance Less: PV of after-tax cash burn 2012-2014 Less: FV of after-tax Commercial bonus Pool cash pmnts Equals: Adjusted LNG equity value in 2011 Start: Current LNG share count Add: Commercial Bonus Pool dilution Add: Share issuance to fund debt mat. Equals: Adjusted share count
dollars dollars dollars rate dollars multiple dollars rate dollars dollars dollars
407,099,084 33,000,000 374,099,084 35% 243,164,405 10.4x 2,538,250,571 11.72% 1,820,490,263 297,500,000 162,600,000 37,476,173 2,243,114,090 82,722,458 17,874,622 70,128,604 170,725,684
dollars
19.47
dollars
13.14
Model Inputs
LIQUEFACTION PROJECT CAPACITY
Phase 1+2 4 2.0 14.0 Phase 1 2 1.0 7.0 Per train 1 0.5 3.5
Secondary offering terms Start: LNG share price Less: Offering discount to market price Less: Investment banking fees2 Equals: Net proceeds per share to LNG Dilution required to pay off existing debt
1
Cheniere market rates Start: Sabine Pass weighted average YTM Add: Reoffer spread on new bond issuance Equals: Cost of new Liquefaction project debt Yield on CQP common units LNG current enterprise value Start: Share price Multiply by: Shares outstanding Equals: Market cap Add: Market value of existing debt Less: Unrestricted cash4 1 Equals: Enterprise value WACC buildup Start: Equity risk premium Multiply by: LNG beta3 Add: 10 year Treasury rate Equals: LNG cost of equity LNG weighted average cost of debt LNG WACC pre-tax Normalized tax rate LNG WACC after-tax LNG unlevered WACC Net operating loss carryforward4
1
US Henry Hub US Rockies (Opal) Canada (AECO hub) UK Natural Nat Gas Asia Contract LNG Ave
Start: Annual cash burn rate until COD3 4 Multiply by: Time to Liquefaction COD Equals: Cumulative cash burn Add: Undisc. Commercial Bonus Pool pmnts 2012-14 Add: Par value of existing debt maturities Equals: Total stock issuance required Divide by: Net secondary proceeds per share Equals: Share issuance required
1 2 3 4
Pricing of 6/6/11 secondary relative to last trade prior to announcement on 5/31/11 Calculated from company press release dated 6/6/11
Midpoint of burn rate estimate in April 2011 company presentation COD assumed 2015 per company press release dated 10/26/11
rate beta rate rate rate rate rate rate rate dollars
LIQUEFACTION ECONOMICS
Construction costs Start: Capacity1 Multiply by: Construction costs per ton2 Equals: Total construction costs Total distributable cash flow
UNITS OF CONVERSION
(y-axis per x-axis) 1 mmbtu 1 mcf 1 Bcf/d 1 short ton 1 metric tonne mmbtu 1.032 1,032,000 46.9 51.7 mcf 0.969 1,000,000 48.4 53.4 m 29.223 28.317 28,316,800 1,209 1,333
3
Start: Revenue per mmbtu3 Less: O&M per mmbtu Equals: Margin per mmbtu Multiply by: Capacity Equals: Total margin Less: Project debt interest5 Equals: Distributable cash flow Distributable cash flow by investor type6 Start: Common units Add: Subordinated units Add: General partner units Equals: Total
1 2 3 4 5 6
Assumes LNG sells its CQP common units to pay off the GSO loan, therefore the GSO loan is excluded from the enterprise value
2 3 4
Ibbotson 2010 SBBI Yearbook Bloomberg Swag estimate from 10-Q for 2011 Q2
Cheniere Energy Inc. press release dated 10/26/11 Estimate by VIC member dr123 on 8/4/11 From 8-K filed on BG contract 10/26/11
VIC writeup dated 11/26/10 by Siren81 Assumes construction costs are funded with 100% debt Assumes common and general partner units are already receiving maximum initial quarterly distributions from Sabine Pass LNG, L.P., and that LNG sells its CQP common units to pay off the GSO loan
Simplifying Assumptions
1. Construction costs for Sabine Liquefaction are funded with 100% debt 2. Interest costs during construction are accrued and not paid until COD 3. GSO term loan netted vs. LNG's ownership of CQP common units 4. Negative carry on GSO term loan vs. CQP collateral is ignored 5. Ignores positive value to LNG of management services contract 6. 7. 8. 9. Assumes LNG is a taxpayer and realizes full value of NOLs All sale and purchase agreements are signed by YE 2011 for purposes of calculating Long-Term Commercial Bonus Pool All sale and purchase agreements are perpetuities for purposes of modeling Liquefaction project cash flows Zero value assigned to Creole Trail Pipeline
10. CQP common units are already receiving maximum initial quarterly distributions 11. Spare gasification capacity of Sabine Pass is worthless
CQP units outstanding Common units Subordinated units General partner units
Marginal Percentage Interest in Distributions Total Quarterly Distribution Target Amount Initial quarterly distribution First target distribution Second target distribution Third target distribution Thereafter $0.425 above $0.425 up to $0.489 above $0.489 up to $0.531 above $0.531 up to $0.638 above $0.638 Common and Subordinated Unitholders 98% 98% 85% 75% 50% General Partner 2% 2% 15% 25% 50%
Total Annual Distributions Initial quarterly distribution First target distribution Second target distribution Third target distribution
Total Annual Distributions - Subordination Period Dist. to General Partner if Subordinated Total CQP Max Max Only Common is Maxed All CQP is Maxed $ 230,152,513 $ 281,633,875 $ 1,050,640 $ 5,747,630 264,810,773 324,044,623 5,905,844 6,613,156 287,555,257 351,876,676 7,510,962 11,524,694 345,499,537 422,782,146 15,845,091 35,159,851
Total Distributions Initial quarterly distribution First target distribution Second target distribution Third target distribution
Annual Per Unit Distributions - Subordination Period General Partner Subordinated Max Common Max Total Max $ 1.700 $ 0.318 $ 1.741 1.956 1.789 2.003 2.124 2.275 3.490 2.552 4.799 10.648
1 2
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. 2011 Q3 form 10-Q, company press release dated 9/14/11 Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. form S-1 filed December 21, 2006
2013
Expected cash receipts1 Expected direct costs1 Expected interest payments1 on liquefaction project debt Expected cash payments to third party equity holders2 Margins Discount rate1,3 NPV of margins Cumulative NPV of margins Participation rate3 Bonus pool
Portion of bonus pool paid in cash3 Cash award Vesting schedule3 Discount rate1 NPV of cash awards Cumulative NPV of cash awards
57,656
Portion of bonus pool paid in equity3 Equity award value Current LNG share price Number of LNG shares awarded
1 2
See LNG Valuation Model tab Assumes LNG owns 11,963,488 of total CQP common units; $0.425/unit quarterly distribution 3 LNG Form 8-K filed 3/2/11
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
11.7% 362,099 $
11.7% 324,124 $
11.7% 290,132 $
15.0% 231,287 $
15.0% 201,119 $
15.0% 174,886 $
ly distribution
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
15.0% 132,239 $
15.0% 114,990 $
15.0% 99,992 $
15.0% 86,949 $
15.0% 75,608 $
15.0% 65,746 $
15.0% 57,171 $
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
15.0% 43,229 $
15.0% 37,591 $
15.0% 32,687 $
15.0% 28,424 $
CUSIP
S&P
First Settle
Maturity Date
Coupon
Call
Face Value
Market Value
Ask Px
Bid YTM
Sabine Pass LNG, L.P. 1. Senior Secured 2. Senior Secured 3. Senior Secured 4. Senior Secured
144A w/Reg Rights 144A w/Reg Rights 144A w/Reg Rights 144A
B+ B+ B+ NA
MW +50 bps 24,998 25,466 MW +50 bps 525,003 522,377 MW +50 bps 1,481,970 ######## NA 183,500 188,546
2,215,470 2,196,131
Cheniere Energy, Inc. 1. Unsecured, converts @ $35.42 2. Secured by various - Blackstone's loan
16411RAD1
NA
01-Feb-06 15-Aug-08
01-Aug-12 2012
2.250% 12.000%
MW +50 bps
204,630 255,100
190,050 NA
92.875 NA
12.48% NA
31-May-07
31-May-12
9.750%
298,000
757,730
NA
NA
NA
2,973,200
1
Bloomberg
Term
20 years
n/a
Pay Date 15-May-11 15-Aug-11 15-Nov-11 15-Feb-12 15-May-12 15-Aug-12 15-Nov-12 15-Feb-13 15-May-13 15-Aug-13 15-Nov-13 15-Feb-14 15-May-14 15-Aug-14 15-Nov-14 15-Feb-15 15-May-15 15-Aug-15 15-Nov-15 15-Feb-16 15-May-16 15-Aug-16 15-Nov-16 15-Feb-17 15-May-17 15-Aug-17 15-Nov-17 15-Feb-18 15-May-18 15-Aug-18 15-Nov-18 15-Feb-19 15-May-19 15-Aug-19 15-Nov-19 15-Feb-20 15-May-20 15-Aug-20
Amount Per Unit 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 0.425 Discount rate Value Current px NPV of residual value Future residual value 7.0% 12.01 16.00 3.99 7.59