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NOTTINGHAM INTERNATIONAL MODEL UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE 2011

STUDY GUIDE
GROUP OF TWENTY (G20)

CONTENTS
Committee Personnel & Contact Agenda 1: The change in aid given to Africa Introduction Progress and Limitations Why the need for aid? Key Issues Case Study: Somalia 1. Background 2. Religious extremism 3. Political Issues Agenda 2: The G20 and Trade and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa Introduction Background What does Africa trade and with whom? Key Issues Conclusions Bibliography 02 03 03

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Committee Contacts

Committee President: Head Chair: Assistant Chairs: Contact Address:

Natasha Benary Paray Aitzaz Rehman Illiana Kotini and Saiful Salihudin g20.nottsmun11@gmail.com

AGENDA 1
The change in aid given to Africa

Introduction Most African nations have only tenuous connections to the worlds financial system, many thought Africa would largely avoid the depths of the financial crisis now felt throughout the developed world. However, such a view ignores the non-capital market impact of a global economic slowdown on African countries. The slowdown in developed world economies has caused a sharp downturn in commodity process 70% for oil-producing countries and more than 50% for metal producing countries. Those nations who relied on higher prices for raw commodities (all falling except for gold and cocoa) are losing billions of dollars. But the negative global downturn impact doesnt end there. Foreign direct investment also is down. After reaching a high of $53 billion in 2007, an estimated $50 billion in short-term money has been withdrawn from capital markets in Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya, and at least $10 billion in projects have been suspended in Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Moreover, remittances from African expatriates have fallen sharply over the last six months. The World Bank estimates that African economic growth has slowed to 3.5% in 2009, down from an average of 5.8% over the last decade, and predicted a further decline to 2.5% in 2010. Progress and Limitations: in 2009 the G20 group of old and emerging economic powers gathered in London for their annual meeting. Some G20 members signalled their intention to support Africa in terms of its position on how the global economy should be addressed and how they should specifically be helped. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the representative of Africa at the meeting, announced his intention to request an increase in funding (as much as $50 billion) and easier access to international financing. The British, the Germans and the Chinese voiced their support for African demands that the international Monetary Fund be reformed, but though not signaling an intention to cut aid, they did promise to boost aid. It is estimated that the nations who took part in the G-8 summit in 2005 are now $20 billion behind in their pledge of another $30 billion a year in aid by 2011. 1 Why the need for aid? as the world's poorest continent, Africa also has its highest birth rate. A
woman in sub-Saharan Africa will give birth to an average of 5.2 children in her lifetime. Africa's population of 1 billion is predicted to more than double in 40 years to 2.3 billion, accounting for about half of projected global growth over that period.

Africa Rising Journal Will the G20 come to Africas aid?

In a year that has seen famine return to the Horn of Africa, there is anxiety that a continent already feeling the pain of climate change will be unable to produce enough food, or especially water, to meet its soaring needs. ActionAid has warned that the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi and South Africa are the most vulnerable countries to a future crisis. The NGO's chief executive, Joanna Kerr, said: "How sustainable our expanding population is will depend entirely on how we tackle the interlocking crises of climate change, dwindling resources and rocketing food prices. This year's famine in east Africa was a harrowing example of how overexploited ecosystems, erratic weather and soaring food prices, when left unchecked, have catastrophic consequences for poor people." Africa is growing fast because it is young. The top 10 youngest populations in the world are all from the continent, led by Niger (an estimated 48.9% below the age of 14), Uganda and Mali. Many will have big families, knowing that despite ongoing efforts to combat malnutrition and HIV, there is a strong risk many of their children will die. Lyndon Haviland, a senior health fellow at the US-based Aspen Institute, said: "Children have high mortality. If you believe there's a high likelihood of losing your children, you're going to have more in the hope that at least one or two will survive. We have to give people the belief that their children will live." Birth rates could be brought down, she added, with improved healthcare, access to modern contraception and, crucially, investment in girls' education because this results in them marrying later and having fewer children.2 Key Issues Case Study: Somalia 1. Background (a) Why has Somalia always needed aid? (b) Why is the deliverance of this aid so troublesome? The central government collapsed in 1991, pulled down by clan warlords who then turned on one another and plunged Somalia into anarchy. The hospitals are now shot-up wrecks, the roads are abysmal and the airports and ports barely function, complicating the efforts to bring in life-saving supplies. Somalias economy has been so shattered by war that there are few paying jobs, which leads to the pilfering of humanitarian aid, another serious problem here, because the black market of stolen food aid has blossomed into one of the countrys few moneymaking industries, along with, of course, piracy. Farms are ruined and much of the food Somalis survive on is imported, leaving them highly vulnerable to swings in global food prices, which are near record highs. Somalia is also probably one of the most violent countries on the planet. Many aid workers have been killed or kidnapped in Somalia, which has scared aid organizations away.
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/22/global-population-growth-africa-cities

2. Religious extremism (a) How is religious extremism stemming the flow of aid? (b) How has the nature/giving of aid changed so as to find ways past this barrier? (a) At a time when Somalia is suffering from the worst drought in 60 years, a ruthless militant group called the Shabab, which is essentially a Qaeda franchise, is on such an anti-Western tirade that it has banned Western music, Western dress, soccer, bras and even Western food aid. The Shabab are a heavily armed complication that differentiates this crisis from previous famines in Somalia, Ethiopia or Sudan and from other recent natural disasters like the tsunami in Indonesia or Haitis earthquake, where aid groups were able to rush in and start saving lives within a matter of hours. (b) American or European aid agencies have stepped up operations and scrambling to find ways to get around the Shabab restrictions, turning to new technologies like sending electronic money by cellphone so people in famine zones can buy food themselves from local markets. Western charities are also teaming up with the new players on the aid scene, like Turkish groups and other Muslim organizations that are allowed into Shabab areas. It all calls for more hustle and definitely more imagination: in Somalia there are a million impediments to the aid business the Shabab, the broken-down state, dilapidated ports and airports, American government sanctions, a legacy of corruption and the sheer dangers of working in full-fledged anarchy haunted by militias, warlords, and even 21st-century pirates. But charity groups say they are beginning to turn this famine around, they just need more resources and more time.3

Source: Lonely Planet


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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/02/giving/some-aid-trickles-into-somalia-surrounded-by-death-anddisease.html

3. Political issues (a) How is political corruption/lack of control stemming the flow of aid? (b) What is the progress in thwarting this corruption? In August 2011, it was announced that thousands of sacks of food aid meant for Somalias drought- and famine-impacted victims had been stolen. Officials in Mogadishu believe that that up to half of aid deliveries were being diverted and going into the hands of corrupt government officials and businessmen. With the rainy season beginning in Somalia, aid workers are raising concerns that the famine can bring about even more death through the spread of diseases like cholera disseminating in overpopulated camps with people whose immune systems are weakened due to months of extreme malnutrition. In addition, food aid still remains unable to get through to many in Somalia due to Al Shabab. Ken Menkhaus of the Enough Project wrote that, Given the bizarre and extremist behavior of Al Shabab, it is not clear that the West and the United Nations can realistically do much to help the 500,000 victims trapped in territory under its control. On November 1st 2011, and in another crackdown on food aid corruption, officials from Somalias government launched an investigation Monday evening into claims of expired food being stolen and resold on the market. Police arrested 22 people in the bust and seized dozens of bags of expired food. The move by Somali officials appears to be a strong sign that officials are attempting to thwart the theft of food aid that is still desperately needed for around 4 million people suffering famine conditions throughout the country. Somali Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali told the press, We will not allow anyone to steal food aid. We have zero tolerance for corruption.4

http://global.christianpost.com/news/somali-government-ousts-2-leaders-over-food-aid-theft-60124/

Source: United Nations statistics


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AGENDA 2
The G20 and Trade and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction In the Seoul Summit Document released by world leaders following the 2010 G20 Summit in Seoul, South Korea, it is written that we strongly believe that trade can be an effective tool for reducing poverty and enhancing economic growth in developing countries. LICs [low-income countries] in particular. To support LIC capacity to trade we welcome the adoption of the MultiYear Action Plan on Development. 5 Background Africas growth performance since gaining independence from colonial rule in the 1960s has been quite disappointing. So used are we to this assessment that we forget that Africa was, at least in the first decade of independence, growing faster than other developing regions in the world. However, the late 1970s dramatically set back the continent and led to stagnation and regression through the 1980s and 1990s. Africas role in the global economy is largely responsible for this, expressed most visibly in insufficient resource mobilization and capital formation, and the continents lopsided trade relations.6 The United Nations LDC [Least Developed County] IV Conference in Istanbul in May of this year was a key opportunity to lay a foundation for the growth that were needed to promote and sustain progress on the Millennium Development Goals. Trade is just one of the nine pillars in that plan, but several others are closely linked to using trade more effectively as a stimulus to growth and development in poor countries. These include the infrastructure and food security pillars identified as priorities this year by the French government, which currently holds the G20 chair. Fewer trade distortions and deeper markets would play an important role in improving food security, while better infrastructure is needed in many countries to lower trade costs. Targeted safety nets to protect the most vulnerable, as called for in the sixth pillar on growth with resilience, including those addressing food security, are also a more efficient and effective response to external shocks than trade measures. In addition, investment in human capital is clearly needed for trade and economic growth generally, and trade provides both technology and broader markets that can make private investments more profitable and boost job creation. What does Africa trade and with whom? Africa is less dependent on developed country demand for its exports today than when the
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http://www.scribd.com/doc/53646517/A-G20-Agenda-for-Trade-and-Development-in-Poor-Countries http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2011/wp102_2011.pdf

debt crisis hit in the early 1980s (table 12 below). Asia has emerged as a major trading partner, while increased SSA trade integration has reduced the share of exports to the developed world from 74 per cent in the 1960s to 61 per cent in 2000-2008. The SSA export share to East Asia which includes the 10 ASEAN members plus China, Japan and the Republic of Koreamore than tripled, from 5 to 16 per cent, over the same period. However, much of this trade expansion is fairly recent. The growth of Chinas demand for primary commodities since the late 1990s has been the driving force behind this trend. Notably, intra-SSA exports increased significantly, from 5 per cent of total exports in the 1960s to 12 per cent in 2000-08. Intraregional trade also has significant development potential if it relies on and strengthens developmental linkages. The declining importance of rich country markets for African commodity exporters may have reduced the continents direct vulnerability to the business cycles of the advanced economies, thus enabling it to recover more easily from the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

Key Issues 1. Trade and Market Access The trade pillar in the Seoul action plan begins with a commitment to make progress towards duty-free and quota-free (DFQF) market access for the least developed country (LDC) products in line with Hong Kong commitments. 2. Trade Capacity Building and Infrastructure

Even with duty-free, quota-free access, exporters in countries without paved roads or where Red tape and inefficient customs hold up trade for days or weeks, will find it difficult to take advantage of preference programs. Building adequate physical infrastructure, notably for transportation, energy, and telecommunications, will take years and billions of dollars. Given the magnitude of the needs, the Seoul action plan calls in the first instance for a needs assessment and a comprehensive plan for infrastructure from the multilateral development banks. A high-level panel is to report at the summit in Cannes on mechanisms for scaling up and diversifying financing for infrastructure, as well as commenting on the feasibility of the MDB plan. But soft infrastructure, such as customs, should not be ignored and, in many cases, trade costs can be significantly lowered with modest investments in trade facilitation and capacity building. 3. Trade, Food Security and Resilience Just three years after food prices spiked to levels not seen since the 1970s, food prices are again rising sharply and millions of poor people are threatened with hunger and malnutrition. Millions more could find themselves falling back into poverty. Two price spikes of this magnitude just three years apart, caused at least in part by extreme weather events, highlight the increasing volatility that climate change is likely to bring to agricultural markets. It is too soon to be sure, but the steady rise in food prices since 2000 could also signal a reversal of the decades-long decline in commodity prices, with populations growing and incomes rising faster than crop yields. These events underscore the fact that governments and donors need to address both the short- and long-run aspects of food insecurity. Policies to promote food security also range along a spectrum, from ensuring that families have enough of the right kinds of food to maintain health, to making certain that global supplies are adequate for a growing and richer population.

Conclusions The preceding discussion strongly suggests that much of the conventional wisdom regarding how best to address African development and poverty is not only misguided but often harmful. International financial liberalization has not improved growth, but has instead exacerbated volatility. Worse still, there is strong evidence that some economic policy advice given to and policy conditionalities imposed on SSA Governments have reflected vested interests and prejudices abroad. In recent years, much emphasis has been given to prioritizing FDI promotion, even though experiences elsewhere show that FDI generally tends to follow, rather than lead, domestic investments. Not surprisingly, there continues to be limited FDI, mainly confined to minerals and other natural resource exploitation, with limited employment and other benefits. Nonetheless, such policy reforms have enhanced the profitability and protection of FDI without necessarily enhancing the trickle-down benefits to national economies of such enclave investments.
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More credible simulation exercises based on available evidence suggest that trade liberalization gains will be modest for the world economy and even more so for developing countries, while net gains for Africa are far from assured. There is considerable evidence that the main beneficiaries of agricultural trade liberalization will be the existing major agricultural exporters from North America, Australasia, South-East Asia and the Southern Cone of Latin America. Nonetheless, many well-meaning advocates have joined in the chorus calling for agricultural trade liberalization as if it will boost development prospects in Africa in the near term. In view of the pervasive influence of such erroneous, if not harmful, policy advice and conditionalities, it is crucial to increase policy space for Governments to allow them to pursue more effective policies for development. Countries need to be able to choose or design their own development strategies as well as elaborate and implement more appropriate development policies. Besides enhancing policy space, it is also necessary to increase financial resources for development. The removal of the huge debt overhangs of the poorest countries through debt relief has been an important step in this direction. Massive and sustained increases in ODA are also needed to kick-start investments and growth and, in the longer term, to reduce the continents resource gap and aid dependence (UNCTAD, 2006). After two decades of economic stagnation, contraction and deindustrialization, agrarian problems, corruption, desertification, climate change, disease, conflict and other scourges have also taken a huge toll on the continents economic, social and political fabric. Hence, proactive efforts are urgently required to build new capacities and capabilities for development.

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Bibliography AGENDA 1
Africa Rising Journal Will the G20 come to Africas aid? http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/22/global-population-growth-africa-cities http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/02/giving/some-aid-trickles-into-somalia-surrounded-bydeath-and-disease.html http://global.christianpost.com/news/somali-government-ousts-2-leaders-over-food-aid-theft60124/ UNstats.un.org/ (United Nations Official Statistics) www.lonelyplanet.com/maps/africa/somalia/ (Lonely Planet Guide Maps)

AGENDA 2
http://www.scribd.com/doc/53646517/A-G20-Agenda-for-Trade-and-Development-in-PoorCountries http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2011/wp102_2011.pdf

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