Key findings from a statewide survey of 500 likely voters

with an oversample of 518 likely GOP primary voters

in New Hampshire conducted October 29-31, 2011.
FREDERICKpolls
Project #11565
Public Opinion Strategies and F rederick Polls are
pleased to present the key findings of a statewide
telephone survey conducted in New Hampshi re. The
survey was completed October 29-31, 2011 among 500
li kely voters with a margin of er ror of +4.38% and an
oversample of 518 li kely GOP primary voters with a
margin of er ror of +4.30%.

Glen Bolger and Keith F rederick were the principal
researchers on this proj ect. Jim Hobart was the proj ect
director, and Claire O`Brien provided analytical
support.
4 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Right
Di rection
16%
Wrong
Track
77%
No Opinion
5%
Refused
2%*
A strong majority of voters think the country is on the wrong track.
GOP primary voters are especially pessimistic.
General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate
National Mood
*Denotes Rounding
Right
Di rection
5%
Wrong
Track
92%
No Opinion
2%
Refused
1%
5 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Strongly
Approve
18%
Somewhat
Approve
24%
Somewhat
Disapprove
12%
Strongly
Disapprove
42%
Don't Know
2%
Refused
2%
President Obama`s approval rating is upside-down overall.
General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate
Obama Approval
Strongly
Approve
3%
Somewhat
Approve
8%
Somewhat
Disapprove
13%
Strongly
Disapprove
73%
Don't Know
2%
Refused
1%
Total Approve: 42%
Total Disapprove: 54%
Total Approve: 11%
Total Disapprove: 86%
6 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Approval of the president follows party lines, with
I ndependents slightly more disapproving than approving.
Obama Approval by Party
(General Electorate)
8%
40%
80%
90%
54%
15%
GOP
(30%)
I nd/ Lean
(38%)
Dem
(29%)
Total Approve Total Disapprove
+65% -14% -82%
7 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Strongly
Approve
1%
Somewhat
Approve
13%
Somewhat
Disapprove
25%
Strongly
Disapprove
55%
Don't Know
5%
Refused
1%
A strong majority of voters disapprove of Congress.
General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate
Congressional Approval
*Denotes Rounding
Strongly
Approve
1%
Somewhat
Approve
14%
Somewhat
Disapprove
32%
Strongly
Disapprove
46%
Don't Know
4%
Refused
3%*
Total Approve: 14%
Total Disapprove: 80%
Total Approve: 16%*
Total Disapprove: 79%*
8 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Strongly
Approve
22%
Somewhat
Approve
28%
Somewhat
Disapprove
14%
Strongly
Disapprove
22%
Don't Know
13%
Refused
1%
Senators Shaheen and Ayotte have solid approval ratings.
Jeanne Shaheen Approval Kelly Ayotte Approval
General Electorate
*Denotes Rounding
Strongly
Approve
21%
Somewhat
Approve
30%
Somewhat
Disapprove
13%
Strongly
Disapprove
17%
Don't Know
18%
Refused
1%
Total Approve: 50%
Total Disapprove: 36%
Total Approve: 50%*
Total Disapprove: 30%
9 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Approval of the senators follows party lines. Ayotte
has good ratings with I ndependent voters.
By Party (General Electorate)
30%
44%
80%
61%
37%
7%
GOP
(30%)
I nd/ Lean
(38%)
Dem
(29%)
Total Approve Total Disapprove
+73% +7% -31%
73%
49%
29%
13%
28%
49%
GOP
(30%)
I nd/ Lean
(38%)
Dem
(29%)
Total Approve Total Disapprove
Jeanne Shaheen Approval Kelly Ayotte Approval
-20% +21% +60%
11 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
35%
47%
35%
51%
51%
52%
63%
67%
75%
73%
General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate
I mproving education.
Having America become more energy independent by
producing more of the energy we use here at home.
Making health care more affordable.
Creating jobs.
9.4
9.5
9.1
9.1
8.6
8.7
8.3
7.5
Mean:
Issue Importance Ranked by % 10s
Voters are most concerned about getting the economy moving again
and creating jobs. Producing more U.S. energy is also important.
Getting the economy moving again.
8.3
7.7
12 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Voters across party lines rank America becoming more
energy independent as a very important issue.
Issue Rating by Party (General Electorate)
"Having America become more energy independent by producing more of the energy we use here at home."
81%
76% 78%
53%
49%
56%
GOP
(30%)
I nd/ Lean
(38%)
Dem
(29%)
8-10 10
13 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
A Great
Deal
27%
A Fai r
Amount
49%
Only a
Little
20%
Not at All
4%
A significant majority of voters are wor ried
about the affordability of energy.
General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate
"How much do you personally worry about the affordability of energy?"
Total Great Deal/ Fai r Amount: 76%
Total A Little/Not At All : 24%
Total Great Deal/ Fai r Amount: 77%
Total A Little/Not At All : 23%
A Great
Deal
30%
A Fai r
Amount
47%
Only a
Little
19%
Not at All
4%
14 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
More Than
Today
67%
Less Than
Today
28%
Don't Know
5%
The vast majority of voters think America will need
more oil and natural gas in the future than today.
General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate
"And, thinking ahead to the year 23, how much oil and natural gas do you think America will need?
Do you think America will need more than today or less than today?"
*Denotes Rounding
More Than
Today
78%
Less Than
Today
19%
Don't Know
3%*
15 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Voters across all age groups think America will need
more oil and natural gas in the future.
By Age (General Electorate)
62%
65%
63%
66%
76%
37%
29%
33%
27%
18%
18-34
(12%)
35-44
(26%)
45-54
(19%)
55-64
(23%)
65+
(19%)
More Than Today Less Than Today
+58% +36% +25% +30% +39%
16 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
GOP primary voters regardless of ideology believe that we
will need more oil and natural gas resources in the future.
By Ideology (GOP Primary Electorate)
81%
79%
73%
14%
17%
24%
Very Conservative
(31%)
Somewhat Conservative
(33%)
Moderate/ Liberal
(34%)
More Than Today Less Than Today
+49% +62% +67%
17 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Strongly
Favor
44%
Somewhat
Favor
29%
Somewhat
Oppose
11%
Strongly
Oppose
8%
Don't Know
7%
Refused
1%*
A substantial majority of voters favor increased
access to domestic oil resources.
General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate
*Denotes Rounding
"And, do you favor or oppose increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources?"
Strongly
Favor
67%
Somewhat
Favor
22%
Somewhat
Oppose
3%
Strongly
Oppose
4%
Don't Know
4%
Total Favor: 74%*
Total Oppose: 19%
Total Favor: 88%*
Total Oppose: 7%
18 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Majorities in all parties are in favor of increased
access to domestic oil and natural gas resources.
By Party (General Electorate)
86%
76%
57%
9%
15%
35%
GOP
(30%)
I nd/ Lean
(38%)
Dem
(29%)
Total Favor Total Oppose
+22% +61% +77%
19 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
North (14%)
Central (28%)
South (58%)
General
Election
Primary
Favor:
66% 81%
Oppose:
22% 10%
General
Election
Primary
Favor:
78% 92%
Oppose:
16% 5%
General
Election
Primary
Favor:
76% 91%
Oppose:
19% 6%
I ncreased access to domestic oil/gas
resources is favored throughout the state.
By Region
20 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
GOP primary voters across the ideological spectrum are
st rongly in favor of increased access to domestic resources.
By Ideology (GOP Primary Electorate)
90%
92%
84%
7%
5%
10%
Very Conservative
(31%)
Somewhat Conservative
(33%)
Moderate/ Liberal
(34%)
Total Favor Total Oppose
+74% +87% +83%
21 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
55%
6%
52%
11%
45%
11%
45%
15%
29%
9%
85%
12%*
79%*
19%*
76%
20%
66%
29%
67%
20%
Strongly Agree Total Agree Strongly Disagree Total Disagree
Messages about job creation, increased security
and reduced costs resonate with voters.
I ncreased access to oil and natural gas resources here in North America
would lead to more American jobs.
Expanding access to domestic oil and natural gas resources will help increase
the country`s energy security because we will be able to rely
on North America`s resources.
Expanding access to North America`s oil and natural gas resources could
reduce the cost to consumers for items such as gasoline, diesel fuel,
home heating oil and natural gas.
Some in Washington are delaying the development of domestic oil and natural
gas reserves every chance they get. These delays may mean an even tighter
supply of oil in the future, potentially hurting the economy and leading
to higher energy costs for consumers.
Ranked by % Strongly Agree
(General Electorate)
When the federal government expands access to domestic sources of oil and
natural gas, they increase the amount of revenue the government treasury
receives because these additional oil and natural gas supplies generate
lease payments, royalty fees and other sources of government revenue.
*Denotes Rounding
22 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Across party lines, a strong majority of voters believe that increased
use of domestic oil resources will lead to more American jobs.
I ncreased access to oil and natural gas resources here in North America would lead to more American jobs.
By Party (General Electorate)
93%
86%
77%
5%
12%
20%
GOP
(30%)
I nd/ Lean
(38%)
Dem
(29%)
Total Agree Total Disagree
+57% +74% +88%
23 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
73%
3%
72%
5%
61%
4%
59%
6%
42%
4%
92%*
5%
91%
8%
86%*
11%
80%
15%
80%
10%*
Strongly Agree Total Agree Strongly Disagree Total Disagree
GOP primary voters respond strongly to all of these messages.
I ncreased access to oil and natural gas resources here in North America
would lead to more American jobs.
Expanding access to domestic oil and natural gas resources will help increase
the country`s energy security because we will be able to rely on
North America`s resources.
Expanding access to North America`s oil and natural gas resources could
reduce the cost to consumers for items such as gasoline, diesel fuel,
home heating oil and natural gas.
Some in Washington are delaying the development of domestic oil and natural
gas reserves every chance they get. These delays may mean an even tighter
supply of oil in the future, potentially hurting the economy and leading
to higher energy costs for consumers.
Ranked by % Strongly Agree
(GOP Primary Electorate)
When the federal government expands access to domestic sources of oil and
natural gas, they increase the amount of revenue the government treasury
receives because these additional oil and natural gas supplies generate
lease payments, royalty fees and other sources of government revenue.
*Denotes Rounding
25
WASHINGTON STATEWIDE POLICY BENCHMARK ~ SEPTEMBER 27-29, 2011
T HE BOT TOM LI NE


9 Both general election and Republican primary election voters are concerned about
America becoming more energy independent and also about the affordability of
energy.

9 Voters overwhelmingly believe that the country will need more oil and natural gas in
the future than it needs today.

9 Both general election and primary voters strongly support increased access to domestic
and natural gas resources. Strong majorities of Republicans, Independents, and
Democrats all agree.

9 New Hampshire voters strongly agree that increased access to oil and natural gas
resources would lead to more American jobs and would also increase the country`s
energy security.

9 New Hampshire voters believe that some in Washington are delaying development of
domestic oil and natural gas, which could lead to higher energy costs. They also
believe that expanding domestic access could decrease costs to consumers.

27 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Tea Party primary voters rate America becoming
more energy independent highly.
Issue Rating by Tea Party (GOP Primary Electorate)
"Having America become more energy independent by producing more of the energy we use here at home."
86%
77%
70%
80%
66%
44%
37%
49%
Strongly Favor
(29%)
Somewhat Favor
(27%)
Total Unfavorable
(14%)
DK/No Opinion
(29%)
8-10 10
28 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Voters of both genders believe America will need more
oil and natural gas in the future than it does today.
By Gender
66%
68%
30%
26%
Men
(48%)
Women
(52%)
More Than Today Less Than Today
+42% +36%
General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate
+60% +58%
"And, thinking ahead to the year 23, how much oil and natural gas do you think America will need?
Do you think America will need more than today or less than today?"
78%
77%
20%
17%
Men
(48%)
Women
(52%)
More Than Today Less Than Today
29 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Both genders favor increased use of domestic resources.
By Gender
81%
67%
15%
23%
Men
(48%)
Women
(52%)
Total Favor Total Oppose
+44% +66%
General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate
+73% +88%
"And, do you favor or oppose increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources?"
93%
83%
5%
10%
Men
(48%)
Women
(52%)
Total Favor Total Oppose
30 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Favorability toward increased access to domestic resources
is high among voters of all income levels.
By I ncome
75% 71% 74%
19%
21%
19%
Under $40K
(21%)
$40-80K
(29%)
$80K+
(39%)
Total Favor Total Oppose
+50% +56%
General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate
+78% +82%
"And, do you favor or oppose increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources?"
+55%
87%
88%
91%
9%
6%
7%
Under $40K
(21%)
$40-80K
(29%)
$80K+
(39%)
Total Favor Total Oppose
+84%
31 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011
Primary voters who favor the Tea Party are almost unanimous
in thei r favorability toward using domestic oil resources.
95%
95%
64%
87%
3% 3%
27%
6%
Strongly Favor
(29%)
Somewhat Favor
(27%)
Total Unfavorable
(14%)
DK/No Opinion
(29%)
Total Favor Total Oppose
By Tea Party (GOP Primary Electorate)
+92% +37% +92% +81%
Email: glen@pos.org
Twitter: @posglen
Blog: pos.org/insights/tqia-blog
FREDERICKpolls