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November 8, 2011
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price `177 `193
12 Months
Angel est. 2,235 187 8.4 70 % diff 4.6 8.7 32bp (65.5)
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Auto Ancillary 6,861 0.4 256/162 58,696 1 17,594 5,289 MOSS.BO MSS@IN
For 2QFY2012, Motherson Sumi Systems (MSS) consolidated net profit was significantly below our as well consensus estimates, despite better-than-expected top-line and operating performance. Adjusted EBITDA margin at Samvardhana Motherson Reflectec (SMR) witnessed a 289bp yoy contraction due to lower utilization levels at the new plants in Hungary and Brazil. Further, MTM loss of `74cr primarily on foreign currency loans and higher interest expense severely impacted the companys profitability. We have revised our FY2012 earnings estimates downwards to factor in EBITDA margin pressures due to lower utilization levels at the new plants. However, we believe operating leverage benefits due to pick-up in order execution will enable MSS to restore its margin in FY2013. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock. Lower utilization at new plants and notional forex loss affect overall performance: For 2QFY2012, MSS posted strong 19.5% yoy (1.7% qoq) growth in top-line to `2,339cr, led by a 13.4% (2.5% qoq) and 23.6% yoy (flat qoq) jump in domestic and overseas sales, respectively. Overseas performance was boosted by strong sales momentum at SMR, which grew by 21.6% yoy (down 2.2% qoq) in INR terms. Adjusted EBITDA margin fell by 110bp yoy to 8.7%, largely due to a sharp drop in operating margin at SMR. EBITDA margin at SMR fell by 289bp yoy to 3.3% due to unutilized capacities at the new plants in Hungary and Brazil. Net profit fell sharply by 71.8% yoy (62.8% qoq) to `24cr, led by notional loss of `61.4cr on foreign currency loans and a significant increase in interest cost. Outlook and valuation: We believe execution of orders at SMR will help MSS deliver volume and revenue growth going ahead. Further, ramp-up in new capacities will aid margin expansion in FY2013. We expect MSS to deliver a ~15% and ~10% CAGR in its top line and bottom line, respectively, over FY2011-13E. At `177, MSS is trading at 14.7x its FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a revised target price of `193.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 65.2 17.1 11.0 6.7
3m 3.4 (18.7)
1yr (15.7)
3yr 76.6
(4.7) 190.2
FY2010 6,924 162.3 248 41.4 7.9 6.4 26.8 5.7 25.4 14.1 1.1 14.1
FY2011 8,371 20.9 384 55.0 10.6 9.9 17.9 4.3 27.7 24.3 0.9 8.7
FY2012E 9,800 17.1 345 (10.0) 8.5 8.9 19.9 3.9 20.6 16.8 0.8 9.3
FY2013E 11,119 13.5 467 35.2 9.2 12.0 14.7 3.3 24.3 19.7 0.7 7.7
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 2QFY11 2,339 1,454 62.2 368 15.7 314 13.4 2,135 204 8.7 23 70 3 74 39 1.7 37 93.8 2 (22) 24 0.1 38.8 0.6 1,958 1,194 61.0 300 15.3 272 13.9 1,766 192 9.8 15 61 3 135 6.9 47 34.9 88 2 86 4.5 38.8 2.2
% chg 1HFY12 1HFY11 19.5 21.8 22.3 15.6 20.9 6.1 53.6 14.9 11.9 (71.0) (22.1) (97.3) 4,639 2,909 62.7 723 15.6 616 13.3 4,248 391 8.4 45 132 7 63 158 3.4 88 55.8 70 (20) (71.8) 90 1.5 38.8 (71.8) 2.3 3,863 2,356 61.0 596 15.4 529 13.7 3,481 382 9.9 27 119 6 255 6.6 95 37.2 160 15 146 4.1 38.8 3.8
% chg 20.1 23.5 21.4 16.3 22.0 2.4 67.0 10.9 9.8 (38.1) (7.0) (56.4)
(16) (552.1)
(13) (600.2)
(38.5)
(38.5)
Better-than-expected net sales growth of 19.5% yoy: For 2QFY2012, MSS registered strong 19.5% yoy (1.7% qoq) growth in its top line to `2,339cr, driven by a 13.4% (2.5% qoq) and 23.6% yoy (flat qoq) jump in domestic and overseas sales, respectively. Domestic revenue stood at `862cr and overseas revenue came in at `1,428cr. Overseas performance was boosted by 21.6% yoy (down 2.2% qoq) revenue growth at SMR in INR terms. Despite a demand slowdown in the domestic passenger vehicle market and labor unrest at Maruti Suzuki one of the companys major clients, MSS posted strong top-line growth.
November 8, 2011
Within India
67.1 59.7
Outside India
496.8
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
139
EBITDA margin declines by 110bp yoy to 8.7%: For 2QFY2012, MSS registered a 110bp yoy decline in its EBITDA margin to 8.7%, marginally ahead of our expectation of 8.4%. Margin contraction can be attributed to raw-material cost pressures, which led to a 118bp yoy increase and amounted to 62.2% of net sales. Standalone operating margin remained firm during the quarter, while margin at SMR declined sharply by 289bp yoy and 154bp qoq due to start-up costs and lower utilization levels at the new plants in Hungary and Brazil (utilization levels of around 5%).
Net profit
2QFY12
65 74 24
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
(50) (100)
(31)
(52)
Net profit nosedives by 71.8% yoy: Net profit for 2QFY2012 stood at `24cr, registering a substantial decline of 71.8% yoy (62.8% qoq). The bottom line nosedived sharply due to volatility in INR/USD and Euro/USD, as a result of which notional loss of `61.4cr on foreign loans was booked during the quarter. Further, a significant increase in interest cost negatively affected the companys profitability.
November 8, 2011
2QFY12
10.0
8.1
8.7
(16)
(3)
(18)
(11)
2QFY12 2QFY11 % chg 1HFY12 1HFY11 % chg 785 476 60.6 78 9.9 111 14.1 664 121 15.4 15 24 10 47 45 45 5.7 13 29.5 32 4.0 39 0.8 669 408 61.1 63 9.5 100 14.9 571 97 14.6 8 20 10 (11) 91 (50.7) 13.6 25 (47.2) 27.5 66 (52.1) 9.9 39 1.7 (52.1) 91 (50.7) 86.6 20.3 (1.2) 16.3 24.1 11.1 22.9 17.4 16.5 1,536 953 62.0 154 10.0 214 13.9 1,320 216 14.1 27 47 34 42 135 135 8.8 37 27.8 97 6.3 39 2.5 1,228 743 60.5 120 9.8 187 15.3 1,051 178 14.5 12 126.0 39 (9) 148 148 12.0 53 (28.9) 35.6 95 7.7 39 2.5 2.0 2.0 (9.0) (9.0) 21.3 12 183.3 25.6 21.7 14.0 28.1 25.1 28.2
Foreign exchange translation losses overshadow strong standalone operating performance: MSS posted strong top-line growth of 17.4% yoy (4.4% qoq) to `785cr on the back of 14.2% and 59.3% yoy growth in domestic and overseas revenue, respectively. Slowdown in the domestic passenger vehicle market and labor unrest at Maruti Suzuki restricted the growth in domestic revenue to a certain extent. On the operating front, EBITDA margin improved by 82bp yoy to 15.4%, largely due to a decline in raw-material and other operating expenses. Sequentially, however, EBITDA margin expanded sharply by 270bp on account of savings on the raw-material front. As a result, operating profit jumped by 24.1% yoy (26.4% qoq) to `121cr. Net profit, on the other hand, significantly declined by 52.1% yoy (51.8% qoq) to `32cr, as the company had to account for foreign exchange translation loss on foreign loans amounting to `41.9cr. Further, higher interest cost (up 86.6% yoy) and depreciation expense (up 20.3% yoy) negatively affected the companys bottom line during the quarter.
November 8, 2011
Within India
77.8 63.3
76.0
(%) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 14.2 10 0
Outside India
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
115
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
Net profit
66 47 32
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
(24)
(11)
(40)
% chg 1HFY12 17.0 16.5 26.0 1,591 1,410 147 35 124 110 14 7.8 7.8 9.8
November 8, 2011
2QFY12
10.2
9.8
8.4
9.0
8.3
(2)
(10)
(6)
2QFY12
SMR reports net loss: For 2QFY2012, SMR reported a strong 13.4% yoy increase in its net sales to 195mn; however, due to favorable currency movement, revenue in INR terms grew by 21.6% yoy. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined sharply by 289bp yoy and 154bp qoq to 3.3%, led by start-up costs and lower utilization levels (~5%) at the new facilities in Hungary and Brazil. The new plants in Hungary and Brazil have commenced production on a pilot basis and are expected to ramp up to a significant scale by 1QFY2013. SMR reported net loss of `18cr, led by a decline in operating performance and MTM loss of `19cr during the quarter.
November 8, 2011
Investment arguments
Maintaining its leadership position: MSS is a leader in the wire harnessing segment, controlling over 65% of the domestic passenger vehicle market and around 48% market share in the domestic rear view mirror market. The company is now focusing on the supply of high-level assemblies and modules (MSS is a key supplier for the recently launched Ford Figo), where margins are comparatively high. MSS is also increasing its content per car in a bid to diversify its product portfolio. The company is laying emphasis on its global product plan (GPP), where it is looking at setting up joint ventures with leading tier-I suppliers to upgrade its technology base and bolster its clientele. Pick-up in order execution at SMR to boost performance: SMR has shown a substantial margin expansion since taken over by MSS and has bagged orders of about 800mn to be supplied over the life of the new models, which would be launched in the near future. MSS is gradually progressing towards achieving its target of ~8% EBITDA margin at the SMR front.
To cross US $5bn in revenue on a consolidated basis To attain RoCE of 40% on a consolidated basis To achieve 70% of sales from outside India To achieve dividend payout of 40% of consolidated profit To increase reach from 21 countries to 26 countries
Source: Company, Angel Research
C a n be achieved as it has a strong execution track record C o uld be a potential upside risk to o ur EBITDA margins Requires turnaround in the o verseas market Will offer potential returns to in vestors Th rough JVs and acquisitions a cross geographies
November 8, 2011
We are not factoring in the acquisition of Peguform GmbH in our estimates currently, as we wait for the complete consolidation to take place. We expect MSS to deliver a ~15% and ~10% CAGR in its top line and bottom line, respectively, over FY2011-13E. At `177, MSS is trading at 14.7x its FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a revised target price of `193.
FY2008 1,335 437 256 2,028 36.2 11.3 65.5 32.8 65.8 21.5 12.6 100.0
FY2009 364 1,568 449 215 2,596 17.4 2.7 (15.9) 28.0 14.0 60.4 17.3 8.3 100.0
FY2010 4,153 1,810 561 178 6,702 1,040 15.5 25.0 (17.2) 158.2 62.0 27.0 8.4 2.7 100.0
FY2011 4,539 2,488 889 260 8,176 9.3 37.5 58.5 45.7 22.0 55.5 30.4 10.9 3.2 100.0
FY2012E 5,265 2,986 1,049 299 9,598 16.0 20.0 18.0 15.0 17.4 54.9 31.1 10.9 3.1 100.0
FY2013E 5,897 3,464 1,207 334 10,901 12.0 16.0 15.0 12.0 13.6 54.1 31.8 11.1 3.1 100.0
November 8, 2011
9,800 8.9
Dec-07
Dec-08
Jun-08
Aug-05
Jan-07
Jun-09
Nov-09
Nov-10
Apr-11 Apr-11
Feb-06
May-05
Aug-08
Aug-09
Nov-04
Mar-10
Jul-06
Jul-07
May-05
May-10
Feb-09
Sep-10
Jul-07
Dec-07
Dec-08
Jun-08
Jan-06
Dec-05
Dec-06
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-05
Jun-06
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jun-09
Nov-09
May-10
Feb-09
Dec-05
Dec-06
Sep-10
Jun-06
Jan-08
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-11
Oct-03
Oct-11
Nov-10
Mar-10
Apr-03
Apr-04
Nov-04
Apr-11
Oct-03
Oct-11
P/E (x) FY12E 11.2 9.3 17.0 20.5 22.3 12.5 19.9 8.2 FY13E 9.9 8.4 14.5 18.6 16.1 11.4 14.7 6.6
EV/EBITDA (x) FY12E 6.4 5.4 8.6 12.7 13.7 6.9 9.3 4.7 FY13E 5.3 4.8 7.0 11.1 9.6 5.8 7.7 4.0
RoE (%) FY12E 22.9 27.6 18.3 21.2 16.3 26.4 20.6 8.3 FY13E 21.1 26.2 18.1 19.4 20.1 23.1 24.3 10.0
FY11-13E EPS CAGR (%) 12.9 24.2 26.9 19.2 1.7 25.1 10.3 (7.5)
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Consolidated results; # December year end; ^ September year end
November 8, 2011
Oct-11
Oct-11
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-07
November 8, 2011
10
November 8, 2011
11
(197) (2,146)
(210) (2,268)
November 8, 2011
12
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.7 1.3 7.4 0.7 2.0 4.5 0.4 0.8 4.5 0.5 1.0 11.1 0.6 1.3 6.1 0.5 1.0 7.9 2.4 44 51 56 42 1.4 63 66 113 20 2.3 35 38 69 5 2.4 38 38 66 14 2.3 40 39 68 17 2.3 40 41 68 18 22.2 22.3 34.7 11.8 10.8 26.6 14.1 15.6 25.4 24.3 23.5 27.7 16.8 18.0 20.6 19.7 21.4 24.3 10.5 0.8 2.4 18.9 4.6 0.8 30.5 6.7 0.9 2.1 11.9 4.8 0.7 17.1 4.3 0.7 4.0 11.8 5.1 0.5 15.3 7.9 0.7 3.7 20.1 3.9 0.5 27.6 5.8 0.7 3.4 13.6 4.6 0.6 18.7 6.6 0.7 3.5 16.0 4.2 0.5 22.3 4.5 4.1 7.3 1.3 15.0 4.9 4.5 9.3 1.3 22.0 6.6 6.4 13.6 1.8 31.0 9.9 9.9 16.3 2.8 41.3 8.9 8.9 16.2 2.5 44.9 12.0 12.0 19.9 2.8 53.8 39.7 24.2 11.8 0.8 3.4 26.0 6.9 35.9 19.1 8.1 0.8 2.8 27.2 3.9 26.8 13.1 5.7 1.0 1.1 14.1 3.3 17.9 10.9 4.3 1.6 0.9 8.7 2.5 19.9 10.9 3.9 1.4 0.8 9.3 2.3 14.7 8.9 3.3 1.6 0.7 7.7 2.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
November 8, 2011
13
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns) :
November 8, 2011
14