CAINS GOP LEAD DISAPPEARS IN THIS WEEKS POLL: ROMNEY NOW LEADS

One in ve registered voters who plan to vote in a GOP primary or caucus next year support businessman Herman Cain as their choice for the partys presidential nomination, a drop from 26% last week. In this weeks Economist/YouGov Poll, there has been yet another shift in GOP presidential preference: after leading the eld for the last few weeks, Cain now trails former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Preferred Republican Candidate for President

"If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012?" 40
Percent of Registered Voters Likely to Vote in Republican Primary or Caucus

30

q q q q q

q q q q q

Romney: 24% Cain: 21% Gingrich: 16%

20

q q q q q q q q q

q q q

10

q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q

Perry: 7%

Aug 2011

Sept 2011

Oct 2011

Nov 2011

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich remains in third place, with 16% support. The former frontrunner, Texas Governor Rick Perry is far back in the pack. Perry fares about as well in this weeks poll as two other candidates do Minnesota Congresswomen Michele Bachmann (herself once a frontrunner) and Perrys fellow Texan Congressman Ron Paul. In fact, Perry has the dubious distinction of being the only well-known Republican candidate who receives as many unfavorable as favorable mentions from the voters who will likely participate in next years delegate selection process. Nearly all Republicans voters had an opinion of Perry; half were negative. (Former Utah Governor John Huntsman also gets negative assessments from GOP voters, but far
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fewer have an opinion of Huntsman than have an opinion of Perry.)

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Rick Perry?

(Registered voters who are likely to vote in a Republican primary or caucus only)
Favorable Unfavorable Don't know

50% 45% 47%

33%

17% 8%

September 2427, 2011

November 58, 2011

Less than two months ago, Republican voters had a different image of Perry: half were favorable, and only a third were not. At that time, Perry was at the top of the GOP eld along with Romney and the then-yet-to-announce-his-non-candidacy New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Herman Cain is still the most popular Republican for those voters. Two-thirds of them have a favorable opinion of him, more than say that about any of his opponents. Six in ten GOP voters like Gingrich and Romney.

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Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people?

(Registered voters who are likely to vote in a Republican primary or caucus only)
Favorable Unfavorable Don't know

65% 60% 61%

30% 25%

30%

10%

10%

9%

Herman Cain

Newt Gingrich

Mitt Romney

Those three men fare similarly against President Barack Obama in fall 2012 matchups. The President continues to lead all three among all registered voters.

If the 2012 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and the following Republican candidate, would you vote for Barack Obama or the Republican candidate?
(Registered voters only)
Barack Obama Republican Candidate Other Not sure

46% 42%

48% 38%

48% 41%

7%

7%

8%

7%

5%

6%

Mitt Romney

Herman Cain

Newt Gingrich

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REPUBLICAN VOTERS REJECT CHARGES AGAINST CAIN; 55% WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR A CANDIDATE ACCUSED OF HARRASSMENT
The recent allegations by several women about sexual harassment by Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain have been met with scorn and skepticism among many GOP voters. In fact, the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, conducted the weekend after news reports of those charges appeared, nds many Republicans rejecting the womens claims and even saying that the charges are part of a smear campaign by Cains GOP rivals. Nearly every registered voter who plans to vote in a Republican primary or caucus next year has heard of the charges of harassment, which were made during the period Cain led the National Restaurant Association (93% have). By more than two to one, they believe that Cain is not guilty of the charges, something Cain has claimed all week long. However, the public overall is not so sure of his innocence.

Do you think Herman Cain is guilty of sexually harassing female employees while he led the National Restaurant Association?
(Asked if respondent is aware of allegations against Cain)
Guilty Not guilty Not sure

45% 41% 33% 42%

22% 17%

All respondents

Registered voters who are likely to vote in a primary or caucus

Half of Republican voters say the charges are part of a smear campaign and have come from rival GOP candidate operations. 43% of GOP voters believe that, and only 22% do not. On this question, the public overall is not much different: 38% of
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all Americans say the charges are part of a smear campaign, 26% say they are not.

Herman Cain accused his opponents in the race for the Republican presidential nomination of spreading the stories about Cain's unwanted sexual advances as part of a smear campaign against him. Do you agree or disagree that the stories are part of a smear campaign organized by his political rivals?
(Asked if respondent is aware of allegations against Cain)
Agree Disagree Not sure

43% 38% 36%

34%

26% 22%

All respondents

Registered voters who are likely to vote in a primary or caucus

And GOP voters are much more likely than the public overall to say they would consider voting for someone who had been accused of sexual harassment. Of course, Cain has been leading the Republican eld for the last few weeks, and though his lead has disappeared in the last week, he remains near the top. 55% of Republican voters would consider voting for a candidate against whom such accusations had been made. Just 30% overall say that.

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Would you consider voting for a candidate for President who had been accused of sexual harassment?
Yes No Not sure

55%

42%

30%

29% 24% 21%

All respondents

Registered voters who are likely to vote in a primary or caucus

76% FEAR NEGATIVE IMPACT OF EUROPEAN CRISIS ON U.S. RECOVERY

Nearly eight in ten Americans have heard about the European debt crisis and most of them worry that what happens in Europe will hurt the American economy. But the latest Economist/YouGov Poll suggests that hardly any of them want the U.S. to step in and nancially help those European governments that are in trouble. The worry stems in part from the continuing concern about the state of the American economy. Just 12% in this weeks poll think it is getting better; 45% say it is still getting worse. So there may be little surprise that 76% believe the European crisis likely will impact this country; only 4% say thats not likely to happen.

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How likely is it that the European debt crisis will hurt the economic recovery in the U.S.?
(Asked if respondent is aware of European debt crisis)

38%

38%

10% 3% 1% Very likely Somewhat likely Neither likely, nor unlikely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely

9%

Not sure

But the principal response to the crisis is for the U.S. to stay out. Only 9% think the U.S. should offer nancial assistance, while 80% object to that. The opposition includes all parties, and all income groups.

In your opinion, should U.S. funds be used to help rescue European governments facing financial crises?
(Asked if respondent is aware of European debt crisis)

52%

28%

12% 8% 1% Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no

Not sure

Most Americans dont have much condence in European government leaders when
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it comes to resolving the crisis. 37% are condent that those government leaders can x the problems, but 48% are not. However, there is little condence in U.S. leaders as well: President Obamas approval rating for handling the economy is just 30%.

AMERICANS SUPPORT TWO OBAMA JOBS SPECIFICS, BUT REMAIN DUBIOUS ABOUT THE PLAN ITSELF
The Presidents approval rating remains in the low 40s. In this weeks Economist/YouGov Poll, 42% approve of the way he is handling his job, while 52% disapprove.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?" 70

Obama Approval

Disapprove: 52% 60
Percent of Respondents

50

30

40

Approve: 42%

10

20

2009

2010

2011

However, the Presidents ratings in recent weeks are higher than they have been for most of August and September. His approval rating then frequently languished in the 30s. One problem the President has faced in trying to x the countrys economic problems is that there is a signicant level of skepticism that some of his proposals will do what he says. Just 27% think that his proposed jobs bill would create a signicant number of new jobs. 40% disagree, and the rest arent sure.

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Recently, President Obama proposed a variety of measures to stimulate the economy and create jobs. Do you think that his jobs package would create a substantial number of new jobs in the U.S. or not?

Would create a substantial number of new jobs

27%

Would not create a substantial number of new jobs

40%

Havn't heard about his plan

15%

Not sure

18%

But the answers here, as they are on many questions about the President, are mostly partisan. Democrats are hopeful, Republicans are not. However, there are two specic proposals that get public support. Nearly half the public supports $60 billion of highway and infrastructure spending, nanced by a surtax of 0.7% on million dollar incomes. 12% would favor the highway spending, but without the millionaires surtax. Just 16% oppose both parts of this proposal. Republicans are divided: while half of them oppose the surtax, 30% favor it. And more than half would support infrastructure spending.

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Congress recently considered a measure to spend $60 billion on transportation infrastructure improvements. The highway, transit, rail, and aviation projects would be paid for by a 0.7% tax surcharge on annual incomes over $1 million. Do you favor or oppose this measure?
Party Total Favor transportation spending and favor the surcharge on income earned above $1 million Favor transportation spending, but oppose the surcharge on income earned above $1 million Oppose transportation spending and surcharge on income earned above $1 million Not sure Democrats Republicans Independents

47%

63%

30%

52%

12%

8%

23%

10%

16% 25%

8% 21%

27% 20%

20% 17%

There is even more support for another Obama proposal this one is for tax breaks to companies that hire veterans, with money coming from other Veterans Administration programs. 60% favor that, and only 11% oppose it. The support for this proposal is far more bi-partisan.

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Another measure before Congress would provide tax breaks of up to $9,600 for companies that hire veterans of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The measure would also expand vocational rehabilitation benefits for veterans. The bill would be paid for through existing Department of Veterans' Affairs spending. Do you favor or oppose this measure?
60%

29%

11%

Favor

Oppose

Not sure

AMERICANS REMAIN POSITIVE ABOUT OWS GOALS, BUT DIVIDE WHEN ASSESSING DEMONSTRATORS
In the last week, some Occupy Wall Street protests ended in violence, with clashes between police and demonstrators. But in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, Americans remain positive about the movements goals, but those who say there have been protests in their area are divided in their feelings about the demonstrators. Members of the public who have heard of the movement continue to think positively about the movements goals. There has been more support than opposition since the Economist/YouGov Poll rst started measuring those opinions.

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"Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the goals of the Occupy Wall Street movement?" 50

Support for Occupy Wall Street

Percent of Respondents Who Are Aware of Occupy Wall Street Movement

Support: 41% 40
q

Oppose: 31% 30
q

Neutral or Not Sure: 28% 20

October 2011

November 2011

Half of those aware of the movement say there have been protests in their area (with Westerners the most likely to say that). 44% of those Americans have a favorable view of the demonstrators in their community; 46% do not.

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Occupy protesters in your area?
(Asked if respondent is aware of Occupy Wall Street movement and there have been protests in respondent's area) 30%

25%

19% 16%

10%

Very favorable

Somewhat favorable

Somewhat unfavorable

Very unfavorable

Don't know

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