Airbus Global Market Forecast

Global Market Forecast 2011 - 2030
AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Page 1
September 2011
Delivering the Future

Presented by John Leahy
GMF 2011 Highlights

GMF 2011 key numbers and 20-year change
World fleet forecast
2010
2030
% change
RPK (trillion) Passenger aircraft fleet New passenger aircraft deliveries
4.8 15,000 -
12.3 31,420 26,920
157% 109% -
Dedicated freighters
New freighter aircraft deliveries Total new aircraft deliveries
1,600
-
3,450
930 27,850
+116%
-
Market value of $3.5 trillion

Page 3
20-year demand for almost 27,900 new passenger and freight aircraft
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft
19,170 single-aisle aircraft
6,910 twin-aisle aircraft
1,780 very large aircraft

Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Page 4
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus
World economic forecast accuracy

World real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%)
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Actual until Sep. 2009 Sep. 2009 forecast Actual until Sep. 2011 Sep. 2011 forecast
2006
2007
2008
Slowdown
2009
Deep crisis
2010
Recovery
2011
2012
Strong growth since 2004
Sustained growth
Page 5
Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2011 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus
GDP and passenger traffic development

World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year)
8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
August 11 Passenger traffic up
6.2%
Real & forecast GDP Traffic ASKs
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Page 6
Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2011), Airbus
A two-speed world
Real GDP growth (%) 10% History Forecast
8%
6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
Emerging economies*
Mature economies
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
* 54 emerging economies
Page 7
Source: OAG, Airbus
All regions are showing positive growth

Passenger traffic (monthly ASKs year-over-year)
16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N United States Western Europe Emerging Economies
Traffic up
10.2%
Traffic up
5.2% 2.1%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Emerging economies are leading the way

Page 8
Delivery comparison over the last decade

Annual deliveries
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Airbus Boeing
Largest aircraft manufacturer 8 out of last 10 years

Page 9
Page 9
Airbus order backlog

Undisclosed 27 (1%)
North America 479 (11%)
Europe 360 (9%)

Middle East 418 (10%)
CIS 176 (4%)
Lessors 819 (19%)
Asia/ Pacific 1572 (37%)
Corporate Jet, Private, Military 45 (1%)
Latin America 254 (6%)
Africa 83 (2%)
4,233 aircraft in backlog, worth $570 billion

Page 10
Source: ICAO, CERA, Airbus
Since 2000, air travel has grown 45%, the growth in fuel demand relatively flat.
Evolution of RPKs and jet fuel demand
150 140 130 120 110 100 90 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 (Base 100 in 2000)
Traffic growth
Traffic +45%
Jet fuel demand
Fuel +3%
Jet fuel demand data: CERA (millions of barrels of jet fuel)
Page 11
Page 11
Source: EIA, IHS Global Insight (August 2011), Airbus
Average annual oil prices have rebounded to 2008 values

Average Annual Price
Average annual WTI oil price (US$ per bbl)
160 140 120
History
Forecast
Per Barrel
>$120
Oil price (Current US$)
100 80 60
40
20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Page 12
A320neo generates significant fuel burn savings
15% fuel burn saving
Equivalent to 1,000 cars driving 12,000 miles each

3,600t less CO2 emissions
Equivalent to CO2 absorbed by 240,000 mature trees in a year A320neo new environmental option
Page 13
Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1970
Source: ICAO, Airbus
Oil Crisis
Oil Crisis
Gulf Crisis
Asian WTC Crisis Attack SARS
Financial Crisis
+45%
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
* since 2000
Page 14
Main drivers for future growth

Replacement of aircraft in service in mature markets Dynamic growth in emerging markets population and economics Increasing urbanisation driving wealth and traffic growth Strong continued growth in North American and European markets Expanding global middle class, especially in Asia
Continued growth of LCCs

Market liberalisation more to come
Page 15
Emerging economies drive strong travel growth

10 Trips* per capita - 2010
1
Brazil
China 2030
UK Germany France
USA
India 2030 0.1
Russia
China India
Growth in Propensity to Travel
World average
0.01
China: 3x 2030 vs. 2010 India: 4x 2030 vs. 2010

2010 real GDP per capita
0.001 0 5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000
Note: GDP in US$2005
* Passengers originating from respective country
Page 16
Traffic in and between more mature markets will nearly double between 2010 and 2030
Market share on total traffic, emerging vs. mature traffic flows
RPK (trillion)
1970
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
1990
2010
2030
70%
37% 24% 76% 63%
57% 43%
30%
Traffic within or including emerging economies Traffic within & between developed economies
Page 17
Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2030

World Traffic by airline domicile (RPK billions)
0
Asia-Pacific
1,000
2010 traffic
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
% of 2010 world RPK
20-year growth
% of 2030 world RPK
2010-2030 traffic
28%
5.7%
33%
Europe
27%
4.0%
23%
North America
27%
3.3%
20%
Middle East
20-year world annual traffic growth
7%
7.4%
11%
Latin America
4.8%
5%
6.1%
6%
CIS
3%
4.9%
4%
Africa
3%
5.6%
3%
Page 18
Long-haul traffic will grow faster than short-haul

Evolution of long-haul and short-haul traffic, 2010 set to 100% [passengers]
300%
x 2.8 x 2.4
200% 2030 2030
100% 2010 0% Short-haul traffic

* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
2010
Long-haul traffic
Page 19
Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus
39 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day,
2010 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*
Page 20
Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus
and in 20 years, this will become nearly 90 cities

2030 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*
Page 21
* - Source: IATA Carrier Tracker November 2007 to June 2011
Four years of success four years of full flights

The Singapore Airlines A380 has proven exceptionally popular with customers, with strong loads on all routes it serves. System-wide, more than 5 million customers have flown on Singapore Airlines' A380s [...] on more than 13,000 flights.
SIA News Release 1st July 2011
25th October 2011 marks the fourth anniversary of the first commercial flight
81%
Average Load Factor
76.5%
IATA Industry average l.f.*
77.9%
SIA average l.f.*
Page 22
Source: ICAO, Airbus
Air travel remains a growth market

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1970
ICAO total traffic Airbus GMF 2011
20-year world annual traffic growth
4.8%
Air traffic has doubled every 15 years Air traffic will double in the next 15 years
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Page 23
New aircraft demand will average at ~1,400 per year

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft 24,000
20,000
19,170 17,870 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0
GMF 2010 GMF 2011
4,330 4,790 1,910 2,120 1,740 1,780
Single-aisle & Small jet freighters
Small-twin aisle & Regional freighters
Intermediate twin-aisle & Long range freighters
Large aircraft & Large freighters
% units % value
69% 40%
17% 27%
8% 16%
6% 17%
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Page 24
Pending demand for aircraft replacement in North America

Europe
Today, ~ 4500 out of production aircraft to be replaced by more ecoefficient model
North America
75% 59% 72% 56%
Out of Production
2010 Fleet
Middle East
Asia 79%
67%
Latin America
Africa
70%
Modern
World
Page 25
Source: CASE, fleet in service as of end of year
Strong increase in average seat capacity of aircraft

Evolution of average seat capacity of single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft on order and future fleet in service* 20%
Single-aisle aircraft: Single-aisle aircraft:
+10%
16%
Twin-aisle aircraft:
+15%
Twin-aisle aircraft:
12%
+8%
2010 vs. 2000
+17%
2026 vs. 2000
8%
Backlog
Backlog
4%
0% 2000 -4% * Passenger aircraft 100 seats ** Estimated 2026 backlog (2026 2030 new aircraft deliveries) 2010 2026**
Page 26
20-year demand for almost 27,900 new passenger and freight aircraft
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft
19,170 single-aisle aircraft
6,910 twin-aisle aircraft
1,780 very large aircraft

Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Page 27
A320neo market potential

Single-aisle aircraft in-service
25000
20000
14,800 aircraft
15000
Open Demand Backlog

4,400 aircraft
10000
5000
Currently in-service
0 2010 2015 2020 2025
2030
Open demand for 14,800 aircraft by 2030

Page 28
Page 28
Summary
A market for more than 26,900 new passenger aircraft and over 900 new
freighter aircraft
The A320neo Family will be addressing a market of about 19,000 single-aisle

passenger aircraft, out of which 15,000 still to be sold.
The twin-aisle passenger aircraft market will account for more than 6,900
new aircraft deliveries.
Nearly 1,800 very large aircraft to meet demand and alleviate congestion,
whilst offering lower cost per seat.
Strong A380 demand driven by the growth from 39 aviation mega-cities to 87

in 20 years.
Page 29
September 2011
Delivering the Future

Presented by Chris Emerson
The Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF)

o The Global Market Forecast (GMF) is a
20 year aircraft
demand and passenger traffic forecast
Market research
Deregulation / liberalisation Competition Low cost penetration Consumer / travel surveys
Market segmentation
Regional / low cost / charter Start-up / Network Integrators Traffic flows Domestic / International
Traffic Forecast
Economics & Econometrics Tourism Fuel price Yields Trade / Value of goods
Network development
Aircraft economics Airline operation economics Origin-destination demand Demographics Geopolitics Network evolution
161 regional passenger flows Several models developed for each flow with the best model selected Econometric forecasts complemented by market research and judgement Detailed study of network evolution including new routes, markets and deregulation hot spots
Model the impact of evolving airline models

Fleet build-ups covering 869 passenger airlines
Page 31
Traffic is broken down from macro flows down to city pairs and routings
GLOBAL FORECAST LOCAL ESTIMATES
~161
distinct flows Europe France
~10,000
country pairs
~200,000
Origin-Destination city pairs
Toulouse
TLS
SIN
Asia
Singapore
Singapore
A unique process to match the global vision with the local perspective.
Page 32
Five key industry drivers examined
Economics and Demographics
Passengers and Traffic
Networking
Airline Operations
Aircraft and Aircraft Demand
Economic and Population Growth Growing Middle Class Trade Emerging Markets Aging Populations Urbanization
Ticket Price Comfort Origin and Destination Connectivity Growing Traffic Flows Flows
Global Cities Hubs New Routes Deregulation Route Evolution
Fuel Load Factor Range Fleet Mix/ Capacity Business Models Yields Environment
Seats, Speed and Utilization Frequency and Range and Fleet Mix Replacement Environment
Page 33
The Global Market Forecast is a long-term forecast which accounts for potential crises
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions) Oil Crisis
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1970
Oil Crisis
Gulf Crisis
Asian WTC Crisis AttackSARS <0.1% GMF 1999
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Page 34
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus
2009 projections have mapped closely with reality

10%
World real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%)
8% 6%
4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10%
Sep. 2011 forecast Actual until Sep. 2011 Sep. 2009 forecast Actual until Sep. 2009
2006
2007
2008
Slowdown
2009
Deep crisis
2010
Recovery
2011
2012
Strong growth since 2004
Sustained growth
The depth of this crisis has resulted in a slow but continual recovery
Page 35
Source: BEA, Airbus
Increase in savings for households and businesses while budget surplus has declined heavily
United States net savings (% of GDP)
Households Business Government
6% 4% 2% 0%
Economic crisis and the beginning of recovery
-2%
-4% -6% -8% -10%
-12%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
The increase in business and household savings demonstrate the foundations for recovery
Page 36
Source: ICAO, IATA (2010 estimation), Airbus
Passenger load factor at record level

80% 75% 70% 65% 60%
World passenger aircraft load factor (%)
55%
50%
1977
1985
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1979
1981
1983
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Environmental efficiency through airline productivity

Page 37
2009
Source: OAG, Ascend, Airbus
The industry is again entering into a period of under capacity

Number of aircraft in under/excess capacity
1500 1000 500
Under capacity
(compared with pre-Sep 2001 (2008) maximum productivity level)
?
0 -500
Excess capacity
-1000
-1500
S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N (compared with pre-Sep 2001 (2008) maximum productivity level)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Page 38
Stabilization of yields over the last ten years

US Cents/RPK
14 13 12 11
Europe
10 9 8 7 6 5
Asia/Pacific
North America
Sources: North America: ATA Asia Pacific: AAPA for data until 2009 / For 2010, Q1 2010, Q2 2010: annual & interim reports (weighted average yield by RPK of the 10 major airlines) Europe: AEA for data until 2009 / For 2010, Q1 2010, Q2 2010: annual & interim reports (weighted average yield by RPK of the 4 major airlines)
Page 39
Source: ICAO/IATA (June 2011), Airbus
Airlines expected to remain profitable in 2011

Airline industry EBIT margins (% of revenues)
North America Europe Asia-Pacific 5.5% 4.0% 2.9% 1.2% 0.1% 10.9%
4.7% 2.9% 2.0% 2.3% 1.1%
-1.8% -4.7%
-1.8% -2.2%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fuel prices will continue to have an effect on the future profitability of airlines
Page 40
Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus
Global middle class expected to rise to 4.9 billion people by 2030

5,000 Millions of people
4,884
107 234 313 322
Sub Sahara Africa Middle East & North Africa Latin America North America Asia-Pacific
4,000
3,249
3,000
165 251 333
2,000
1,845
105 181 338 1,740
3,228
1,000
525 664 703 680
Europe
0 2010 2020 2030
66% of the global middle class will be in Asia-Pacific in 2030

* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)
Page 41
Source: Global Insight, UN Population division
Urbanisation is one of the main drivers of economic growth

2010 real GDP per capita ($US) 120,000 Luxembourg 100,000 Norway 80,000 Switzerland 60,000 Ireland 40,000 Trinidad and Tobago India 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Urban population Bermuda
Japan USA Germany France UK

Argentina Brazil
20,000
Aruba China Russia
Anguilla
Page 42
Long-haul traffic will grow twice as fast as the network

Evolution of long-haul traffic and route network, 2010 set to 100% [passengers and number of city-pairs] Traffic
300%
x 2.8
200%
Network
x 1.4
100% 2010 2030
0%
Traffic will more than double airport infrastructure will not: routes will get bigger
* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm
Page 43
Long-haul traffic will remain highly concentrated on the Aviation Megacities

Long-haul traffic per route category* 500 RPK (billion)
History
Forecast
Secondary city <> Secondary city
400
300
Aviation Megacity <> Secondary city
200
100
Aviation Megacity <> Aviation Megacity
0 1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
*- Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm Based on 2010s 39 Aviation Megacities
Page 44
Aviation megacities across the globe will drive future VLA demand
2030 top 20 airports in number of VLAs
4 LHR
19 SFO
5 JFK
6 CDG
14 FRA
2 PEK
1 DXB
8 DEL 13 BOM
20 ICN
9 PVG 15 SHA
17 CAN
11 NRT
10 LAX
3 HKG
12 BKK
7 SIN
18 GRU
16 SYD
2030: 87 Aviation megacities
Page 45
Domestic US still the largest flow in 2030, followed by domestic China and Intra Western Europe
RPKs (billions)
Domestic United States Domestic PRC Intra Western Europe United States - Western Europe Domestic India Middle East - Western Europe Asia - Western Europe South America - Western Europe Asia - PRC Intra Asia PRC - Western Europe Central Europe - Western Europe Indian Sub - Middle East Domestic Brazil Domestic Asia North Africa - Western Europe Middle East - United States 0 500 1000 1500
% of 2010 World RPK

17.8%
20-year growth
2.4% 7.2% 3.2% 3.9% 9.8% 5.7% 4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 6.4% 6.2% 5.7% 6.2% 6.6% 5.6%
% of 2030 World RPK

11.1%
2010 traffic
2011-2030 growth
6.0%
10.3% 6.4% 1.0% 1.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.5%
9.3%
7.5% 5.4% 2.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
1.6%
1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.7%
2.1%
2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
4.6%
7.1% 5.5% 6.6% 3.8%
Asia - Middle East

PRC - United States Japan - United States
Though domestic PRC will be 34% larger than domestic USA today
Page 46
Airbus Market Research & Forecasts
20-year passenger aircraft demand for 26,900 aircraft worth US$ 3.3 trillion
Fleet size
35,000 30,000 25,000
16,422 Growth New aircraft 26,921
+ 3.8 % per annum
31,424
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000

3,440 Recycled
15,002
10,499
Replaced
0 Beginning 2011
Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters)
1,063
Stay in service
2030
Page 47
Recap and Conclusions

Passenger and Freight Aircraft Demand
Single-Aisle
4.8%
Traffic Growth 2010-2030
Small TwinAisle VLA
by Value
17% 16% 27% Intermediate Twin-Aisle Small TwinAisle
Ten Largest Flows in 2030

Domestic USA Domestic PRC Intra Western Europe USA - W. Europe Domestic India M. East - W. Europe Asia - W. Europe S. America - W. Europe Asia - PRC Intra Asia
Intermediate Twin-Aisle
VLA
Single-Aisle
40%
=500 Aircraft
Page 48
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Global Market Forecast 2011 - 2030

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Delivering the Future

Presented by John Leahy

GMF 2011 Highlights

World fleet forecast

RPK (trillion) Passenger aircraft fleet New passenger aircraft deliveries

12.3 31,420 26,920

Market value of $3.5 trillion

19,170 single-aisle aircraft

6,910 twin-aisle aircraft

1,780 very large aircraft

Market value of $3.5 trillion

Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

World economic forecast accuracy

Strong growth since 2004

GDP and passenger traffic development

August 11 Passenger traffic up

Real & forecast GDP Traffic ASKs

Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2011), Airbus

Source: OAG, Airbus

All regions are showing positive growth

Emerging economies are leading the way

Delivery comparison over the last decade

Largest aircraft manufacturer 8 out of last 10 years

Airbus order backlog

North America 479 (11%)

Europe 360 (9%)

CIS 176 (4%)

Lessors 819 (19%)

Asia/ Pacific 1572 (37%)

Corporate Jet, Private, Military 45 (1%)

Latin America 254 (6%)

4,233 aircraft in backlog, worth $570 billion

Source: ICAO, CERA, Airbus

Jet fuel demand

Jet fuel demand data: CERA (millions of barrels of jet fuel)

Source: EIA, IHS Global Insight (August 2011), Airbus

Average annual oil prices have rebounded to 2008 values

160 140 120

Oil price (Current US$)

A320neo generates significant fuel burn savings

15% fuel burn saving

Equivalent to 1,000 cars driving 12,000 miles each

Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

Asian WTC Crisis Attack SARS

Main drivers for future growth

Continued growth of LCCs

Emerging economies drive strong travel growth

India 2030 0.1

Growth in Propensity to Travel

China: 3x 2030 vs. 2010 India: 4x 2030 vs. 2010

* Passengers originating from respective country

37% 24% 76% 63%

Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2030

% of 2010 world RPK

% of 2030 world RPK

20-year world annual traffic growth

Long-haul traffic will grow faster than short-haul

200% 2030 2030

100% 2010 0% Short-haul traffic

Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus

* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic