CelindaLake President AlysiaSnell Partner MichaelPerry Partner DavidMermin Partner RobertG.Meadow,Ph.D. Partner DanielR.Gotoff Partner JoshuaE.

shuaE.Ulibarri Partner TresaUndem Partner RickA.Johnson ManagingDirector RobertX.Hillman ChiefFinancialOfficer

To: InterestedParties

From: JoshuaUlibarri,Partner Re: LatinoAttitudesonElectedLeadersandReachingtheAmericanDream

Date: November2011 ArecentLakeResearchPartners(LRP)pollshowsthatregisteredLatinovotersareequally frustratedwithbothDemocratsandRepublicansinCongress,andfeelitisharderthanever toreachtheAmericandream. ThesurveywasconductedinbothSpanishandEnglishamong600Latinosinthe25states withthehighestLatinopopulationdensity.Athirdofthesurveyincluded200Latinoswho werereachedviacellularphone. PresidentObamaandCongressionalDemocratsandRepublicansareupsidedownwhenit comestotheirjobperformanceandwhilethePresidentfaresbetterthanCongress,his currentnumbersamongLatinosarenotwhattheyneedtobeiftheyaretobeabasevote protectingagainstasurgingRepublicanvoteamongworkingclassandseniorwhitevoters. Latinosareincreasinglyfrustratedwithbothparties.Theirfrustrationandconcernover reachingtheAmericanDreamputsbothpartiesonwatch,saidpollsterJoshuaUlibarriof LakeResearchPartners.LatinovotersmaynotbetheaceintheholethatDemocratsneed themtobenextNovember,ifthingsstaythesame,anditisclearDemocratswillhaveto workhardtobringthemintotheircorner.Still,Democratsareinamuchstrongerposition withLatinovotersthanRepublicansasthreeinfourvotersrateCongressionalRepublicans negatively. KeyFindings: SevenintenregisteredLatinovoters(72%)sayitisbecominghardertoreachthe AmericanDreamandonly8%sayitisbecomingeasier. AmongregisteredLatinovoters,Democratsleadagenericcongressionalballotwith 50%to24%forRepublicans.AquarterofLatinosremainundecided.

1726MStreet,NW|Suite1100|Washington,DC20036|T202.776.9066|F202.776.9074 WASHINGTON,DC|BERKELEY,CA|NEWYORK,NY|LOSANGELES,CA|RICHMOND,VA www.lakeresearch.com

LakeResearchPartnersLatinosIssuesNovember,2011

Page2

Threeinfour(76%)registeredLatinovotersrateCongressionalRepublicansnegativelyincluding38%who ratethemasdoingapoorjob. Morethanhalf(55%)ofregisteredLatinovotersratePresidentObamasjobperformanceasjustfair (33%)orpoor(22%).Fourinten(43%)ratehisperformanceasgood(25%)orexcellent(18%). LikemostAmericans,economicconcernsweighheavilyuponLatinos,withconcernovertherisingcostsof everydayneedslikegasandgroceriescarryingthemostweight.Latinosarealsoconcernedwithlosing theirjobandnotbeingabletomakeendsmeet,inadditiontohousing,healthcare,andeducationcosts.

AccordingtoCNNexitpollsin2008,PresidentObamareceived67%oftheLatinovoteto31%forSenatorMcCain. Inthe2010congressionalelections,CNNexitpollsshow60%ofLatinovoterssupportedDemocratswhile38% backedRepublicans. LakeResearchPartnersdesignedthistelephonesurvey.Thesurveywasconductedinthe25stateswiththe highestLatinopopulationdensity.ThesestatesareCA,TX,FL,NY,IL,AZ,NJ,NM,CO,GA,NV,NC,WA,MA,VA, PA,CT,MI,OR,MD,IN,OH,MN,OKandWI.Thesestatescover95%ofthecountrysvotingeligibleLatino population.ThesurveywasconductedinbothSpanishandEnglishamong600Latinos,including200Latinoswho werereachedviacellularphone.InterviewingwasconductedSeptember26October5,2011.Thedatahasa marginoferrorof+/3.7percentagepoints. Formoreinformationaboutthispoll,pleasecontactJoshuaUlibarri(2027769066)atLakeResearchPartners.

AttitudesTowardElectedLeaders
Latinoshaveacriticaleyewhenitcomestoevaluatingtheirelectedleadersjobperformance.PresidentObama andCongressionalDemocratsandRepublicansareupsidedownwhenitcomestotheirperformance.While ObamafaresbetterthanCongress,hiscurrentnumbersamongLatinosarenotwhattheyneedtobeiftheyareto beabasevoteprotectingagainstasurgingRepublicanvotewithworkingclassandseniorwhites. Morethanhalf(55%)ofregisteredLatinovotersratethePresidentsjobperformanceasjustfair(33%)orpoor (22%).Fourinten(43%)ratehisperformanceasgood(25%)orexcellent(18%).ThePresidentfaresslightly betteramongwomen(45%excellent/goodcomparedto53%justfair/poor)thanmen(41%/57%),butisstillnet negativeineithercase.Infact,theonlygroupsofvoterswhoratehisjobperformancepositively(orevenly) includeDemocrats,olderwomen,votersage3039,registeredvotesintheMidAtlantic,andLatinoswho immigratedtotheUnitedStates.Ineveryothercasehisjobperformanceratingsaremorecriticalthanpositive. DemocraticLatinosratethePresidentfavorably,butbyonly28points.Comparatively,independentsare netnegativeby43pointsandRepublicansarenetnegativeby75points. Regionally,thePresidentsjobsuffersacrosstheboardexceptfortheMidAtlanticregion(+5).Inthe Northeast(4),theSouth(7)andtheWest(19)thePresidentisupsidedown.InCalifornia(18)and Texas(11)LatinosratethePresidentnegatively;butinthekeyswingstateofFloridaLatinosratehim positivelyby3points. Inthissampleofregisteredvoters,thePresidentdoesslightlybetteramongthemostlikelytovote,where hisperformanceisratednegativelybutbyjustfourpoints.Amongthosewhoaresomewhatlikely,his performanceisverynegative(34).

Lake Research Partners

LakeResearchPartnersLatinosIssuesNovember,2011

Page3

LatinosarefrustratedwiththePresidentsperformance,buttheyhaveturnedagainsttheirleadersinCongress. Inthissample,LatinosgiveDemocratsanidentificationadvantageof32points(50%areDemocrats,18%are Republicans)butthatadvantagedoesnottranslateintosupportforCongressionalDemocratsjobperformance. Seveninten(71%)registeredLatinovotersratetheDemocratsjobperformanceasjustfair(42%)orpoor(29%). Just22%believeDemocratsaredoinganexcellent(7%)orgood(15%)job.DemocratsinCongressareheldin equallybadregardamongwomen(69%justfairorpoor)andmen(73%justfairorpoor),andinbothcasesthree intenrateDemocratsasdongapoorjob(29%pooramongbothmenandwomen). Democratsreceivenegativeperformanceratings,butRepublicansareinworseshapepolitically.Threeinfour (76%)registeredLatinovotersrateCongressionalRepublicansnegatively,including38%whoratethemasdoinga poorjob.Just17%believeCongressionalRepublicansaredoinganexcellent(4%)orgood(13%)job.The differencebetweenDemocrats,andRepublicans,whilebothdoverypoorly,isinintensity,with29%ofLatinos believingDemocratsaredoingapoorjobcomparedto38%whobelieveRepublicansaredoingapoorjob.That ninepointdifferencehelpsprotectaDemocraticleadintheCongressionalballot.

TheCongressionalBallot
DemocratsholdabigleadinthegenericCongressionalballot,buttheirleadissmallerthantheiroverall advantageinpartyidentification.Asmentionedearlier,50%ofregisteredLatinovotersidentifyasDemocrats, including33%whosaytheyarestrongDemocrats;18%identifyasRepublicans,includingjust9%whoconsider themselvesstrongRepublicans.Thedifferenceinintensityisstrong,butthat32pointadvantageinidentification doesnotentirelytranslateintothegenericballotwhereDemocratsleadbyjustby27points.IftheCongressional electionswereheldtoday50%ofLatinossaytheywouldvoteforaDemocrat,and24%wouldvoteforthe Republican(aquarterareundecided).TheDemocraticadvantageinintensityremains,with39%strongly indicatingtheywouldvoteforaDemocrat,comparedtojust16%whowouldstronglyconsidervotingfora Republican.Democratsholda28pointleadamongwomen(53%to24%)andaleadof25pointsamongmen (48%comparedto23%).AmongLatinoswhoarenotundecided(74%ofregisteredLatinovoterspicka candidate),Democratsleadwith67%ofthevotecomparedto33%forRepublicans.Thatisclosertothetypical advantageDemocratsholdonElectionDay,thechallengeisthe26%ofLatinoswhoareundecidedatthistime, whomaytiptoRepublicansorwhocouldevenstayhome.ApathyanddisappointmentinhowDemocratsare performinginCongressisdampeningLatinointensity. Democratsleadamongeverydemographicandgeographicgroup.OnlyselfidentifiedLatinoRepublicans preferRepublicansinthetrialheat. AmongLatinosoverage50Democratsleadby23points(thepartyidadvantageis30points)andthey leadby30pointsamongyoungerLatinos(partyidis+35). TheDemocraticleadisstrongeramongcollegegraduates(+30)thanamongnongraduates(+25). However,Democratsleadbyonly23pointsamongbluecollarwomenandjust20pointsamongcollege men.Athird(33%)ofcollegemenareundecided. Democratsleadby32pointsintheNortheast,30pointsintheWest,andby24pointsintheSouth.They leadby30pointsormoreinCalifornia(+32)andFlorida(+30),thoughtheleadisonly23pointsinTexas. AmongLatinoswhoareverylikelytovote,Democratsleadbyamorerobust29points,andarecloserto meetingtheidentificationadvantagegapof35points.

Lake Research Partners

LakeResearchPartnersLatinosIssuesNovember,2011

Page4

Undecidedvotersarerepresentedprettyconsistentlywithineachdemographicgroup,however, registeredLatinovotersunderage30,independents,collegemen,antichoicevoters,andvotersoutWest (thoughthisismostlyintheMountainstatesandcomeswithasamplesizecaution)are disproportionatelyundecidedintheCongressionalvote.

DifficultyReachingTheAmericanDream
OneofthemoreconsistenttruismsinAmericanpoliticsisthatLatinostendtobeamongthemostpositiveand optimisticvotingblocs,consistentlyoutpacingAnglosandAfricanAmericansonrightorwrongdirection questions.However,thattrendisbecominglessandlessarealityastougheconomictimesextend.Infact,itis nogreatsurprisethatLatinosareincreasinglyfrustratedwithleadersofbothpartiesconsideringhowdifficult LatinosfeelitistoreachtheAmericanDream.Overall,sevenintenLatinos(72%)sayitisbecomingharderto reachtheAmericanDreamandonly8%sayitisbecomingeasier(20%donotknoworsayitisstayingaboutthe same). Thisattitude,thatitisbecominghardertoreachtheAmericanDream,isextensivebutabitmoredramaticamong women(74%harder)comparedtomen(69%).Infact,youngermenaretheonlygroupwherefewerthanseven inten(67%)believeitisbecominghardertoreachtheAmericanDream.Youngermenarenotanymore optimistic(6%easiercomparedto8%foreveryone),theyarejustmorelikelytoseethingsstayingaboutthesame (25%),whichisnotagoodtrendconsideringhowlongtheeconomyhassuffered.Typically,registeredvoters withoutacollegedegreetendtobelessoptimisticbutthatishardlytrueamongLatinoswhere71%ofnon collegegraduatesand74%ofcollegegraduatesagreethatitisbecominghardertoachievetheAmericanDream. Theabovetrendthathadyoungermendisproportionatelysayingthingshavestayedthesameistrueforblue collarmen(24%stayedthesame).AndwhilebothnativeLatinosbornintheUnitedStates(74%harder)and thosewhohaveimmigratedhere(67%harder)saythingsareharder,immigrantsaremorelikelytosaythingsare easier(14%)comparedtothoseLatinosbornintheUnitedStates(just4%).Thedifferenceisnotoverwhelming consideringbothgroupsfeelthingsaremovingintherightdirection,butitistellingthatimmigrantsstillfeelatad moreoptimisticeveninthefaceofdifficulttimes. Unfortunately,LatinosarenotmoreoptimisticforthenextgenerationofLatinos.Seventyonepercentof registeredLatinovotersbelieveitwillbehardertoachievetheAmericanDreamforthenextgeneration, comparedtojust9%whobelieveitwillbeeasier.Twentypercentsayitwillbeaboutthesameasitisnowordo notknow,whichisreallyanindictmentofcircumstancesconsideringsevenintenthinkitisalreadyhardernow toachievetheAmericanDream.Thetrendsmentionedaboveholdtruehere,witheverysubgroupshowinga significantsharethatbelievesachievingtheAmericanDreamwillbeharderforthenextgeneration.

TopEconomicConcerns
Latinos,likemanyAmericans,areworriedaboutalotofthingsatthesametime.Whenaskedwhicheconomic concernworriesthemthemost,24%saidrisingpricesoneverydayneedslikegasandgroceries,acleartoptier worry;everydayitemsisfollowedbyworryoverbeinglaidofforlosingajob(18%)andnotbeingabletomake endsmeet(15%).Thenexttierincludesissueslikenotbeingabletoaffordtherentormortgage(11%),covering thefamilyshealthcarecosts(9%),payingforcollegeortrainingforchildrenorthemselves(combined13%),or planningforretirement(7%).Risingpricesoneverydayneedsisconsistentlythefirstorsecondworryformost subgroups,buttherearesomedifferences:
Lake Research Partners

LakeResearchPartnersLatinosIssuesNovember,2011

Page5

Bothmenandwomenraterisingpricesoneverydayneedsfirst(24%and25%,respectively),andboth makebeinglaidoffthesecondworry(18%and17%,respectively),butwomenplaceslightlyhigher priorityonnotmakingendsmeet(17%forwomen,12%formen),whilemenplacemoreemphasison payingforcollegefortheirchildren(11%formen,6%forwomen). ThiseconomyhashitolderAmericansespeciallyhardandwehavelearnedinotherworkthatolder Americansareveryfearfuloflosingtheircurrentjobandbeingunabletofindanotheronetoreplacethat income.ThisconcernisconsistentforolderLatinos.Overall,Latinosoverage50ratepricesoneveryday needsastheirtopconcern(22%),butbeinglaidofforlosingtheirjobplacesaclosesecond(18%).Infact, beinglaidoffisthetopconcernforLatinosonthecuspofretirement(ages5064),withnearlyaquarter maintainingthatissueastheirtopeconomicconcern.Latinosunderage50aremorelikelytorateprices oneverydayitemsastheirtopconcern(26%). Latinoswithoutacollegedegreehavemanyissuescompetingfortheirconcern,withrisingpricesthetop issue(22%),butthenclusteredcloselybehindisbeinglaidoff(16%),notbeingabletomakeendsmeet (16%),andnotbeingabletoaffordrend(14%),whichisinfactpartofmakingendsmeet.College educatedLatinosputmoreemphasisonrisingprices(29%),buthealthcarepricesrisehigherforthis groupthanforLatinosoverall(15%forcollegegraduatescomparedto9%forallLatinos). LatinoswhohaveimmigratedtoAmericaplacebeinglaidoffatthetopoftheirconcerns(22%),while Latinosborninthecountryplacerisingpricesdistinctlyahead(30%). IntheWest,beinglaidoff(21%)andrisingprices(21%)areinthetoptier.IntheSouth,risingprices clearlyisthebiggerconcern(32%),whileintheNortheastrisingprices(19%)andbeinglaidoff(19%)are tied. California,amusthavestateforthePresident,reflectstheWestoverallwithbeinglaidoff(22%)and risingpricesatthetop(21%).InFlorida,Latinossayrisingpricesisbyfarthebiggestconcern(38%),while Tejanossharethesamepriority(28%risingprices). ThereislittleseparationbetweenLatinoswhoaremorelikelytovote(24%risingprices)andthosewho arelesslikelytovote(24%risingprices).

Lake Research Partners