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THE GOP THREE-WAY CONTEST WITH NEWT GINGRICH FIRST AMONG (ALMOST) EQUALS

This week, the changing GOP contest for the Presidency has changed once again, into a tight three-way contest for the lead, and with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with an edge. The latest Economist/YouGov Poll was conducted following the two most recent Republican debates and in the wake of public appearances by some who allege businessman Herman Cain made unwanted sexual advances to them when he was the head of the National Restaurant Association. Cain remains with the group at the top of the GOP eld among registered voters who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus next year, but he is effectively tied with Gingrich and with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney near to the lead. Gingrich has improved his position dramatically in the last week.

Preferred Republican Candidate for President


"If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want to be the Republican nominee for president in 2012?" 40
Percent of Registered Voters Likely to Vote in Republican Primary or Caucus

30

q q q q q

q q q q q

q q q q q

Gingrich: 23% Cain: 21% Romney: 19%

20

q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q

q q q

10

q q q

q q q

q q q q

q q

q q

Paul: 7% Perry: 6% Huntsman: 5% Bachmann: 5% Santorum: 2% Johnson: 1%

Aug 2011

Sept 2011

Oct 2011

Nov 2011

All other candidates are in single digits. Gingrichs support from women has nearly doubled in the last week from 12% in last weeks poll to 22% today. Gingrich is the Tea Party favorite this week. As for GOP voters who do not identify with the Tea Party, Romney, Cain, and Gingrich are all competitive.
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Most GOP voters dont believe the sexual harassment charges made against Herman Cain. 94% of Republican voters have heard of them, but by 47% to 21%, they believe he is not guilty a sharply different response than from the public as a whole.

Do you think Herman Cain is guilty of sexually harassing female employees while he led the National Restaurant Association?
(Asked if respondent is aware of allegations against Cain)
Guilty Not guilty Not sure

47% 38% 39% 32% 23%

21%

All respondents

Registered voters who are likely to vote in a Republican primary or caucus

By more than two to one, Republican voters say Cain is the victim of a smear campaign; and 47% say they would consider voting for a candidate against whom charges like those made against Cain had been made. Only 29% of all registered voters would. None of the three frontrunners fares better than the others when it comes to next falls election: they all trail Obama by approximately the same margins.

61% APPROVE OF THE FIRING OF PENN STATE COACH JOE PATERNO


Americans in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll have a very clear view when it comes to the child abuse charges made again Penn State football assistant coach Jerry Sandusky: they think Penn State could and should have done more. Americans say that when Penn State acted ring head coach Joe Paterno it
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did the right thing. More than two-thirds of those aware of the scandal believe Penn State did only a fair or poor job when it rst heard of the allegations against Sandusky. And half give Penn State those same low grades for its actions when the news became public. But the number saying Penn State did a poor job is only half as large when the public judges its more recent actions than when it looks back.

How would you rate the job Penn State did in handling allegations of child abuse by former assistant football coach, Jerry Sandusky, when administration officials first learned of the charges?
(Asked if respondent is aware of Penn State scandal)

57%

19% 10%

9% 5%

Excellent

Good

Only Fair

Poor

Not sure

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How would you rate the job Penn State University has done in handling the response to the sexual abuse scandal since news of allegations against Jerry Sandusky became public?
(Asked if respondent is aware of Penn State scandal)

27%

26%

21% 19%

8%

Excellent

Good

Only Fair

Poor

Not sure

There is a strong belief that the University could have had an impact had it acted earlier. 67% say the school should have done more, and could have prevented additional cases of child abuse. Just 3% disagree. The public agrees with the most specic action the school did take: ring head coach Joe Paterno. By nearly three to one, Americans approve. Approval of that decision crosses all demographic categories.

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Do you agree or disagree with Penn State University's decision to fire head coach Coach Joe Paterno for failing to notify the police about an alleged sexual assault after he learned about it from an eyewitness?
(Asked if respondent is aware of Penn State scandal) 44%

17% 11% 11%

17%

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Not sure

Most would not go farther: just 23% would support canceling the remainder of the Penn State football season.

WITH ONLY TWO WEEKS TO GO, 39% HAVENT HEARD OF THE DEFICIT SUPER COMMITTEE
There are only two weeks to go before the Congressional super committee on decit reduction must agree on how to cut the federal budget or risk automatic draconian cuts. But nearly four in ten Americans in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll have heard about the committee and its deliberations; most doubt it will do what it set out to do. Young adults, and those with less money and education, are the least likely to be aware of the super committee. But all groups are skeptical it will do its job. Only 21% think it is likely to succeed. Americans have been dubious about the committees potential since it was created.

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How likely do you think it is that the super committee will be able to agree on its recommendations?
32% 28%

20% 18%

3%

Very likely

Somewhat likely

Somewhat unlikely

Very unlikely

Not sure

The public says both parties are responsible for the difculties though Republicans get a little more blame for a possible stalemate than Democrats do. But those are very partisan assessments. One of the sticking points comes on the question of how to raise revenue, as many Republicans have taken a pledge not to vote to raise taxes. That pledge may not be as valuable as those ofceholders think: 55% of Republicans say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who took that pledge, but only 36% of all registered voters agree.

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Would you be more or less likely to vote for a Congressional candidate if you learned that he or she had signed a pledge NOT to raise taxes?
More likely Makes no difference Less likely Not sure

55%

36% 26% 25% 27%

13%

11% 7%

All registered voters

Registered voters who are likely to vote in a Repubican primary or caucus

Congress continues to get very low marks from the public: in this weeks poll just 7% approve of the way it is handling its job, matching its all-time low.

Congress Approval
"Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the United States Congress is handling its job?" 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Disapprove: 69%
q

Percent of Respondents

Approve: 7%
q

2009

2010

2011

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43% APPROVE OF PRESIDENT OBAMAS OVERALL PERFORMANCE


President Barack Obamas travels to Hawaii to host the Asian Pacic Economic Cooperation (APEC) annual summit havent improved his standing at home much. In this weeks Economist/YouGov Poll just 43% of Americans approve of the way he is handling his job overall, extending the number of weeks his approval rating has remained just above 40%.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?" 70

Obama Approval

Disapprove: 51% 60
Percent of Respondents

50

40

10

20

30

Approve: 43%

2009

2010

2011

The President continues to get his highest ratings on foreign policy: 48% approve of his handling of terrorism, 47% of his handling of the war in Iraq. In contrast, only 33% approve of his handling of the economy the countrys most important issue.

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THE OBAMA HEALTH CARE LAW A NATION STILLL DIVIDED


The Supreme Court will rule on President Obamas health care reform package sometime next year but public opinion may offer them little guidance on how to proceed. The latest Economist/YouGov Poll nds the American public divided on whether or not the health care law should be repealed.

Do you favor or oppose repealing President Obama's health care reform law passed last year by Congress?
35% 34% 30%

Favor

Neither favor, or oppose

Oppose

Of course, this opinion and much of the health care debate is bitterly partisan. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans favor repeal; nearly half of Democrats dont. Most demographic groups are split down the middle. During the debate, many of those with health care insurance expressed satisfaction with the status quo when it came to coverage, but not when it came to costs. And most Americans by a margin of three to one remain satised with what they have.

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How satisfied are you with your health insurance coverage?


38%

26%

14% 11% 12%

Very satisfied

Somewhat satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Very dissatisfied

Not sure

This poll shows, once again, the commitment of older Americans to the Medicare Security system. Only 10% of those 65 and older are dissatised with their health care coverage: of course, most of this group is covered by Medicare. More than twice as many in younger age groups who are more likely not to have coverage express dissatisfactions with their coverage. Only about a third of Americans overall express approval of the Presidents handling of health care and Medicare. Older Americans are no more positive. But when asked what the most important issue is to them, those 65 and older rank Medicare third behind the economy and Social Security, which are nearly tied at the top.

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Which of these is the most important issue for you?


(Among respondents who are 65 or older)

The economy

27%

Social security

24%

Medicare

14%

The budget deficit

12%

Health care

11%

AMERICANS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCUPY WALL STREET GOALS


Even after weeks of protests, Americans support the goals of Occupy Wall Street. In the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, 42% support the movements goals; 30% oppose them.

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"Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the goals of the Occupy Wall Street movement?" 50

Support for Occupy Wall Street

Percent of Respondents Who Are Aware of Occupy Wall Street Movement

Support: 42%
q

40

Oppose: 30% 30
q

Neutral or Not Sure: 28% 20

October 2011

November 2011

There are partisan differences: most Republicans say they oppose the movements goals, while Democrats support them.

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55% FAVOR COLLECTIVE BARGAINING FOR PUBLIC WORKERS UNIONS ON AT LEAST SOME ISSUES
American labor union membership is shrinking, along with their popularity: Just 37% of Americans approve of unions, and 32% disapprove. But a majority of respondents in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll support collective bargaining for public employees, although many would limit bargaining issues.

Through collective bargaining, workers are able to act as a group to negotiate such things as wages, benefits, and working conditions. Do you support or oppose the right of public employees to collective bargaining?
Support collective bargaining on all employment issues

28%

Support collective bargaining on a limited range of employment issues

27%

Oppose collective bargaining on all employment issues

16%

Not sure

29%

Most Democrats approve of labor unions (and unions have supported Democratic politicians for many years). But 60% of Republicans do not. This issue of collective bargaining by public sector unions has been the focus of recent (and possible future) recall elections in Wisconsin, following Republican Governor Scott Walkers successful legislative push last spring to ban nearly all collective bargaining by public workers. National opinion now is similar to national opinion then.

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