You are on page 1of 88

TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR

INFORMATION PAPER
Uwe Remme, Nathalie tRUdeaU, dagmaR gRaczyk aNd PeteR tayloR

2011

February

TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS FOR THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR

INFORMATION PAPER
Uwe Remme, Nathalie tRUdeaU, dagmaR gRaczyk aNd PeteR tayloR
This information paper was prepared for the Energy Technology Perspective Project of the International Energy Agency (IEA). It was drafted by the Energy Technology Policy Division of the International Energy Agency (IEA). This paper reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat, but does not necessarily reflect those of individual IEA member countries. For further information, please contact Uwe Remme at uwe.remme@iea.org

2011

February

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY


The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was and is two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agencys aims include the following objectives: n Secure member countries access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders.

OECD/IEA, 2011 International Energy Agency


9 rue de la Fdration 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France

www.iea.org

Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp

IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States
The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

TableofContents
Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................5 Executivesummary.........................................................................................................................7 Introduction..................................................................................................................................11 Chapter1:Overviewofcurrentsituation.....................................................................................13 Globalcontext.......................................................................................................................13 TheIndiancontext.................................................................................................................14 Powersector..........................................................................................................................19 Resourceavailability..............................................................................................................25 Chapter2:Indiaenergytechnologystrategiesanddevelopmentactivities................................41 Indiasenergypolicies...........................................................................................................41 Indiascurrentandplannedtechnologydevelopmentactivities............................................46 Chapter3:PowersectorscenariosinIndia..................................................................................59 Electricitydemandprojections..............................................................................................59 Powercapacityandgenerationprojections..........................................................................61 ScenariovariantsfortheIndianpowersector......................................................................64 Investmentneeds..................................................................................................................66 Conclusions:Towardsapowersectordecarbonisationstrategy ...........................................68 . AnnexA:RegionalresultsoftheBLUEMapScenario...................................................................71 AnnexB:TheIEApowersectormodelforIndia...........................................................................73 AnnexC:Abbreviationsandunits.................................................................................................75 AnnexD:References.....................................................................................................................79 Listoffigures FigureES.1:Contributionofemissionreductionoptionsonagloballevel,201050.....................11 Figure1.1:ReductionofCO2emissionsintheBLUEMapScenariobysector,201050................13 Figure1.2:TotalprimaryenergysupplyinIndia............................................................................16 Figure1.3:TotalfinalenergyconsumptioninIndia.......................................................................16 Figure1.4:FinalelectricitydemandinIndiabysectorandbyregionin2006/07..........................18 Figure1.5:Indiaselectricityusebreakdownincommercialandresidentialbuildings.................18 Figure1.6:DevelopmentoftotalinstalledcapacityinIndia..........................................................20 Figure1.7:Agestructureofexistingpowercapacity.....................................................................20 Figure1.8:Indiaselectricalgenerationcapacityandgrossgeneration,2007/08.........................21 Figure1.9:TransmissioncapacitiesamongIndiasfiveregionalgridsattheendof2008.............24 Figure1.10:MajorcoalfieldsandminingcentresinIndia..............................................................27 Figure1.11:RegionaldistributionofCO2storagepotentialsingeographicalmodelanalysis.......30 Figure1.12:Regionaldistributionofexistinghydropowercapacityandremainingresources............33 Figure1.13:RegionaldistributionofIndiasonshorewindresources...........................................37 Figure1.14:Regionaldistributionofgeothermalresources..........................................................38 Figure2.1:PossiblescenarioforelectricitygenerationmixinIndiasIntegratedEnergyPolicy...46
Page|3

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Figure2.2:RegionaldistributionofexistingcoalcapacityinIndiaandplannedUMPPs...............47 Figure2.3:RegionaldistributionofexistinggascapacityinIndia..................................................50 Figure2.4:ExistingandplannednuclearcapacityinIndia.............................................................51 Figure2.5:ExistingandplannednuclearcapacityinIndia.............................................................53 Figure2.6:ExistingbiomasscapacityinIndia.................................................................................54 Page|4 Figure2.7:ExistingwindcapacityinIndia......................................................................................55 Figure3.1:Electricitydemandprojections200750.......................................................................60 Figure3.2:PowercapacitiesbyregionintheBLUEMapScenario,2050 ......................................63 . Figure3.3:ElectricitydemandprojectionsforIndiainthepowersectorvariants,20072050.....65 FigureB.1:MapofIndiashowingsimulationmodelstructure......................................................73 FigureB.2:MapofIndia:distancesinkilometres...........................................................................74 Listoftables Table1.1:Highlevelenergyindicatorsfortheworldandfourregions,2007...............................15 Table1.2:Indianrenewablepowergenerationcapacities,31March2010..................................22 Table1.3:ProvenfossilenergyreservesinIndia,China,OECDEurope, theUnitedStatesandtheworld.....................................................................................................26 Table1.4:Renewableenergyresourcepotentials.........................................................................32 Table1.5:WastelandssuitableforenergyproductioninIndia,200..............................................35 Table1.6:Residualbiomassavailability .........................................................................................36 . Table2.1:Originalandlikelynewcapacityadditionsforutilitiesinthe11thFiveYearPlan.........45 Table3.1:ComparisonofGDPprojectionsforIndia......................................................................59 Table3.2:ResidentialelectricitydemandinIndiaandemergingeconomies withsimilarclimateinAsia .............................................................................................................60 . Table3.3:FinalelectricitydemandbreakdownandprojectionforBLUEMapScenario...............61 Table3.4:IndiapowergenerationcapacityintheETP2010Scenarios,2050...............................62 Table3.5:IndiapowergenerationcapacityintheETP2010variants,2050..................................66 Table3.6:PowersectorinvestmentneedsinIndiainBaselineandBLUEMapScenarios............67 Table3.6:PowersectorinvestmentneedsinIndiainBaselineandBLUEMapScenarios............71 Listofboxes

BoxES.1:Scenariosforthepowersector........................................................................................7 Box1:Spacecoolingtechnologiesandtheiruse...........................................................................19 Box2:Costofcoalimportsvs.indigenoussupply.........................................................................29 Box3:NationalmissionswithintheNationalActionPlanonClimateChange.............................43 . Box4:AfutureforultracleancoalinIndia?.................................................................................48 Box5:Aircooling:anoptionforIndia?..........................................................................................64

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Acknowledgements
ThispaperwaspreparedbystaffoftheInternationalEnergyAgencysDirectorateofSustainable EnergyPolicyandTechnologyincollaborationwiththeDirectorateofGlobalEnergyDialogue. A number of Indian experts have contributed significantly to the improvement of the data and Page|5 analysis presented in this paper. The IEA is grateful for the contribution of the India Energy Technology Perspectives Expert Group, and wishes to thank the then Secretary, Ministry of Power,H.S.Brahma,forestablishingtheIndiaEnergyTechnologyExpertGrouptoworkwithIEA inthepreparationforEnergyTechnologyPerspectives2010(ETP2010)(IEA,2010a). Theexpertgroupprovidedinvaluableinsightstoourteamforthisanalysis.TheIEAwishtothank fortheirimportantcontributions;S.M.Dhiman,Member(Planning),CentralElectricityAuthority, chairmanoftheExpertgroup;I.C.P.Keshari,JointSecretary,MinistryofPower,chairmanofthe power subgroup; Dr. Ajay Mathur, Director General, Bureau of Energy Efficiency, chairman of the buildings subgroup; V. Raghuraman, Chief Adviser, Jaguar Overseas Ltd, chairman of the industry subgroup; Dilip Chenoy, Director General, SIAM, chairman of the transportation sub group; Amarjeet Singh, Chief Engineer, CEA (C&E); A. S. Bakshi, Chief Engineer, CEA ; Anita Gahlot,DeputyDirector,CEA;andtheconvenerandmembersofthesubworkinggroups: SubGroup for power sector: A.S. Bakshi, Chief Engineer (IRP), CEA (convener); R.K. Kaul, Joint Advisor,PlanningCommission;R.K.Sethi,Director,MOEF;D.N.Prasad,Director,MinistryofCoal; P.K. Goel, Director, Ministry of Power; Sudhir Mohan, Advisor, MNRE; R.B. Grover, Scientific Adviser, DAE; Arun Srivastava, Scientific Officer/EngineerH, (Strategic Planning Group), DAE; Sunil Parwani, Addl. General Manager (Power SectorPlanning & Monitoring), BHEL; D.K. Jain, Executive Director (Engg), NTPC; D.K. Dubey, AGM (CCT); Sanjeev Mahajan, DGM (PECCT); PradeepDadhich,SeniorFellow,TERI;SudhirKapur,MemberCIINationalCommitteeonPower andMD&CEOCountryStrategyBusiness;ShrutiBhatia,CII;B.H.Narayana,Addl.Dir.,CPRI. SubGroupforbuildingssector:SanjaySeth,EnergyEconomist,BEE(Convener);LekhanThakkar, Vice President, GUDC; K.I. Singh, GM (PEInfrastructure Services), NTPC; S. Srinivas, Principal Counsellor,CIIGreenBusinessCentre,Hyderabad;Vakil,CEPTUniversity,Ahmedabad;Pradeep Kumar,SeniorFellow,TERI. SubGroup for industry sector: Amarjeet Singh, Chief Engineer (C&E), CEA (Convener); B.N. Bankapur, Director (Ref), IOC; Saurabh Yadav, Knowledge Management Specialist, BEE; S.B. Thakur, DGM (S&EP), IOCL; A. Panda, ED (S&EP), IOCL; U. Venkata Ramana, Chief Technical ServiceManager,RefineriesDivision,IOCL,;GautamRoy,GM(T),IOCL;K.Murali,Director(Ref), HPCL;S.P.Singh,GM(E&P),HPCL;SatishKumar,ChiefofParty,USAIDECOIIIProject,IRG;K.S. Venkatagiri, Principal Counsellor, CII Green Business Centre, Hyderabad; Girish Sethi, Director (EET Division), TERI; Ambuj Sagar, IIT Delhi; M.R. Gandhi, ScientistG, Central Salt & Marine ChemicalResearchInstitute. SubGroupfortransportsector:NeerjaMathur,ChiefEngineer(OM),CEA(Convener);AjitGupta, Retd.Advisor,MNRE;DineshTyagi,Director(Tech)NATRiP;SaurabhDalela,Addl.Dir,NATRiP. Other participants at the Joint IEAIndia Workshop on Regional Analysis of India who provided valuable comments and feedback on the India analysis include, but are not limited to: S. M. Kulkarni,Hindalco;Nand,FertiliserAssociationofIndia;B.P.Thapliyal,Scientist,CPRI;AlokKumar Goyal,Scientist,CPRI;AvtarSingh,IPMA;R.CMall,IPMA;A.K.Gupta,ChiefEngineer,CEA;M.S. Puri,ChiefEngineer,CEA;PraveenGupta,Director,CEA;V.K.Singh,DeputyDirector,CEA;Rajesh Kumar, Assistant Director, CEA; Major Singh, Chief Engineer, CEA; Suresh Chander, Chief

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Engineer,CEA;S.Mahajan,DeputyGM,CCT;P.Pal,DeputyGM,Engineering;A.K.Kulshreshtha, CDE (PE Mech); Sriganesh Gandham, GMCorporate R&D, HPCL; Naveen Kumar Sharma, GM, Grindingunit,JKLakshmiCementLtd.;RaviKapoor,USAID,ECOIII;AnilK.Varshney,Additional VicePresident,BSESRajdhaniPower;Prof.V.K.Paul,HeadoftheDeptofBuildingEngineering& Management;Prof.P.K.Sarkar,ProfessorofTransportPlanning;K.Sheshadri,AssistantDirectorI, Page|6 CEA; Hardayal Singh, Deputy Director, CEA; C.B. Trivedi, Deputy Director, CEA; K. K. Roy Chowdhury,TechnicalAssociate,CementManufacturersAssociation. SpecialthanksgotoDolfGielen,aformerIEAcolleague,forhiscontributionandinputatanearly stageoftheanalysis. TheIEAsChiefEditorMarilynSmithworkedwithPeterChambers,aconsultanteditor,toprepare themanuscriptforproduction;layoutwasthencarriedoutbyAnneMaynewithproductionand coordination assistance from other members of the Communications and Information Office (CIO), including Jane Barbire, Madeleine Barry and Muriel Custodio. Cover design was completedbyCorinneHayworth,alsoofCIO.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Executivesummary
Theworldisfacingseriouschallengesinenergy.Theglobaleconomyissettogrowfourfoldinthe next40years,whichpromiseseconomicbenefitsandhugeimprovementsinpeoplesstandardof living.Butitalsoimpliesamuchgreateruseofenergy.Aglobalrevolutionisneededintheways thatenergyisproduced,suppliedandused.Acorerequirementisfargreaterenergyefficiency, Page|7 whichwillnecessitateunprecedentedlevelsofcooperationamongallmajoreconomies. Recognisingthediversechallengesfacedbydifferentcountries,theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA) analysed theenergy trends in four countries/regions India, China, Europe andthe United States. These analyses are included in the publication Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (ETP2010) (IEA, 2010a), which examines potential technology pathways to achieving a 50% reduction in worldwideenergyrelatedcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsby2050comparedto2005levels. This working paper served as an input to the Indian regional chapter in ETP2010, but also extendstheanalysis.ItinvestigatesthemixoftechnologiesneededtoachievedeepCO2emission cuts in the Indian power sector while keeping pace with the strong growth in energy requirementsthatwillresultfromarapidlygrowingeconomy. Social and economic development in India both depend on access to modern forms of energy. Around404millionpeopleinIndiadonothaveaccesstoelectricity.Providingelectricitytothese peoplewhilemovingtolowcarbonelectricitygenerationisasocialimperative.Indianelectricity supply and demand are projected to increase fivefold to sixfold between now and 2050. This development will require massive investment, but it also creates unique opportunities to transformthecountrysCO2intensity. TheanalysisshowsthatIndiawillfacesignificantchallengesinachievingdeepCO2reductionin power generation while also meeting the predicted growth in demand and supply. Achieving successwillmeantacklinganumberofissuessimultaneously,includingageographicallyuneven distribution of natural resources, financial constraints and high system losses. Accelerated exploitation of natural resources and more transmission and distribution (T&D) capacity are essentialtoovercomethecurrentproblems.Increasedcompetition,additionalequipmentsupply capacityandotheractionstoinvolvetheprivatesectorcanhelptoaccelerateinvestments.
BoxES.1:Scenariosforthepowersector

InETP2010(IEA,2010a),theIEAdevelopedtwodifferentscenariostoanalysethepowersector: The Baseline Scenario reflects expected developments on the basis of the energy policies that havebeenimplementedorapprovedforimplementation. TheBLUEMapScenarioistargetdrivenandaimstohalveglobalenergyrelatedCO2emissionsby 2050 compared to 2005 levels. A global carbon price of USD175/tCO2 in 2050 is needed to achievethisreductiontarget.WorldwideCO2emissionsinthepowersectorarereducedby74% inthisscenariorelativeto2005.

Going beyond the analysis presented in the ETP2010, the IEA has developed an alternative strong growthcaseforIndia.Inthisalternativecase,thefuturegrowthofGDPishigherthanthatusedfor thedevelopmentofETP2010.ThispaperlateranalyseshighdemandcasesforboththeBaseline andBlueScenarios.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Analysis of the BLUE Map Scenario developed by the IEA for India indicates that electricity demandcanbelimitedto3700TWhin2050.Thiswouldallowfortheprojectedannualincrease of4.9%ingrossdomesticproduct(GDP)and0.8%inpopulation,andaccesstoelectricityforall. This demand can be met with a capacity of 748GW, which implies an expansion by 580GW compared to the installed capacity in 2007/08. In a strong growth case, which is based on an Page|8 averageannualGDPgrowthrateof6.3%between2007and2050,thetotalcapacityrequirement in2050increasesto1277GW. The potential technology transition to achieve this expanded capacity is based on a number of technicalandnontechnicalelements.

Technicalelements
ThetechnicalchallengesoftheelectricitysectorinIndiaincludelowefficienciesofthermalpower plants,continuedrelianceoncoalplants,andinadequatetransmissionanddistributionnetworks. Improvingtheefficiencyofelectricitygenerationfromcoalisneededtoexploittheextensivedomestic coalresourcesandreduceairpollution.Integratedgasificationcombinedcycle(IGCC)technology couldachievethis,buthastobeadaptedtoIndiascoalqualityortorelyonimportedcoal. Power generation from natural gas is projected to increase by a factor of nine by 2050. This requires accelerated exploration and development of offshore gas fields, construction of liquefiednaturalgas(LNG)terminalsandgaspipelines,anddeploymentofnaturalgascombined cycle(NGCC)powerplants. Lowcarbon generation options, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear and renewabletechnologies,areneededtosubstantiallyreduceemissionsinIndianpower. Around77GWofcoalfiredpowerplantsequippedwithCCSshouldoperateby2050.Duetothe highashcontentofIndiancoal,oxyfuellingandpostcombustionCO2capturewouldappearto besuitableoptionsforIndia.PrecombustioncaptureinacoalfiredIGCCplantwouldrequirethe adaptationofthetechnologytotheIndiancoalquality,ortheuseofimportedcoal.Retrofitting coal power plants with CO2 capture could be an option for the new coal power plants without CCSbeingcurrentlyplannedinIndia. Nuclearpowerwouldincreasebyafactorof30toabout120GW(morethan100newnuclear reactors) by 2050 in the BLUE Map Scenario. One strategy India can continue to pursue is to exploit its vast thorium resources, along with developing the required fast breeder and heavy water reactor technologies. This would facilitate selfsufficiency over the entire nuclear chain. Relyingonimporteduraniumtofuellightwaterreactors(LWR)canbeanalternativestrategyfor Indias nuclear future, which does not require the development of the more complex nuclear technology chain as needed for thorium. The use of uranium would initially require imported reactors,latertobereplacedbyIndiandesignedreactors. DuetogoodsolarirradiationconditionsinmanypartsofIndia,thecombinationofphotovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) can contribute significantly to fulfilling the countrys electricity demand. Given the size of the Indian market, it is worthwhile to develop an Indian equipmentindustryforsolarPVandCSP,andforT&Dequipment. The use of hydropower can be trebled, notably to supply the north. India has enough hydro potentialtomeetthisincrease,butwillrequirenewlineconnectionstothecentresofdemand. Theenvironmentalandsocialimpactsofhydropowerprojectsneedtobecarefullyconsideredin theplanningprocess.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Losses in transport and distribution could be reduced from the current 32% to 15% in the medium term. Grid expansion is needed to provide electricity access to areas that have been neglected to date. Depending on local conditions, decentralised production of electricity in isolated offgrid applications (e.g.solarpowered water pumps) or to feed a local minigrid (e.g.byminihydroplants)canbeanalternativesolution. Newtechnologiesandenergysavingmethods,suchasenergyefficientbuildingdesign,canhelp Page|9 toreduceelectricitydemandgrowth. The strong growth case of the BLUE Scenario examines the implications of higher economic growth,whichimplieshigherelectricitydemand,andfindsthatnuclearcapacitywouldhaveto increasebyafactorof50,andhydrocapacitybyafactoroffour.Solarcapacitywouldhaveto reach370GWby2050comparedto191GWintheBLUEMapScenarioandjust13MWin2010.

Nontechnicalelements
MoreefficientuseofelectricityandreducedCO2inIndiawouldbegreatlyhelpedbyregulations and standards encouraging the use of more efficient appliances and systems. This should be supplemented by a combination of a revised electricity tariff scheme and the introduction of subsidiesforenergyefficientequipment. Lowcarbon power technologies, such as nuclear or renewables, generally need larger initial capitalspendingcomparedtofossilbasedoptions,butofferloweroperatingcosts.Government can do much to encourage the required investment by working for macroeconomic stability, availability of financing, an enabling infrastructure and an innovative industrial base. Policy makers should also implement consistent and transparent regulation. For example, a policy frameworkthatproperlyrewardsT&Dinvestmentsisneeded.Jointventuresbetweenpublicand privatecompaniescanbeavaluableapproachforstimulatingprivatesectorinvolvement.India shouldseekinternationaltechnologycooperationinnuclearenergy,drycoolingtechnologiesfor steam cycles, solar and CCS methods, as well as in electricity grids. More nationally oriented research,developmentanddemonstrationpoliciesandprogrammesaddressingtheuseofhigh ashIndiancoalforpowergenerationhavetobecontinuedandexpanded. Thesedevelopmentsshouldbecombinedwithcostbasedpricingandcarefulreconsiderationof subsidiesforcertainconsumergroupstoeasesupplyconstraintsandenvironmentalimpacts.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Introduction
TheFourthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)released inNovember2007concludedthatglobalcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsmustbereducedby50% to85%of2000levelsby2050ifglobalwarmingistobeconfinedtobetween2Celsius(C)and 2.4C(IPCC,2007).1FollowingthepublicationoftheIPCCreport,awarenessoftheurgentneed Page|11 toaddressclimatechangerosesignificantly,asitbecameclearthatmuchdeeperCO2emission cuts are required than those previously recommended. A general guideline is that global CO2 emissionsmustbehalved. In2010,theIEApublishedEnergyTechnologyPerspectives2010(ETP2010)(IEA,2010a),which aims to explain how to transform the global energy sector over the coming decades. The book describes the rationale and implications of the IEAs BLUE Map Scenario, which explores the energypolicyandtechnologyoptionsneededtoachievea50%reductioninglobalenergyrelated CO2emissionsby2050. If fully implemented, the BLUE Map Scenario could be consistent with stabilising longterm greenhousegasemissions(GHG)intheatmosphereat450ppm,whichclimatescientistsbelieve wouldlimitthelongtermglobalmeantemperatureriseto2Cto3C.Theanalysisindicatedthat achieving such reductions would require maximum implementation of energy efficiency worldwide and a virtually decarbonised power sector (FigureES.1). The decarbonisation of the powersector,inparticular,posesamajorchallenge.
FigureES.1:Contributionofemissionreductionoptionsonagloballevel,201050
GtCO2
60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source:IEA,2010a.

Baselineemissions57Gt

Carboncaptureandstorage (CCS)19% Renewables17% Nuclear6% Powergenerationefficiencyand fuelswitching5% Endusefuelswitching15% Endusefuelandelectricity efficiency38%

BLUEMapemissions14Gt WEO2009450ppm case ETP2010 analysis

AspartoftheETP2010analysis,theBaselineandBLUEMapScenariospresentedintheprevious ETPreport(ETP2008)(IEA,2008)havebeenextendedforfourcountries/regionsIndia,China, EuropeandtheUnitedStates.ETP2010discussesinmoredetailscenarioresultsfortheseparts oftheworld,andpresentsmoredetailedgeographicalmodellingofthepowersector.Thegoal wastorefinetheETP2008scenariosandtoassesstheirviabilityingreaterdetail.Forexample: thepotentialofhighqualityrenewableenergyresourcesisoftenconcentratedinspecificregions,


1 SignificantreductionsinnonenergyCO2emissionsandnonCO2greenhousegaseswouldalsoberequiredtoachievethe450ppmtarget.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

whilethesitingofnuclearpowerplantsislimitedbytheavailabilityofcoolingwater.Longrange transmissionlinescanovercomesuchproblems,butaddtothecostofelectricitysupply. ThisinformationpaperpresentsinmoredetailtheunderlyingregionalanalysisforIndiausedin ETP2010(IEA,2010a).ThepaperinvestigatesthebestwaytoachievedeepCO2 emissioncutsin theIndianpowersystemwhileallowingtheIndianeconomytocontinuetogrowandalleviating Page|12 energypoverty.Itdoessofromatechnoeconomicperspectivebuildingondetailedresource and technology data for India and identifies the key technologies needed for India to realise suchatransition. ThispapersintentisnottoanalysehowtoachievethistechnologydeploymentinIndia,where technologytransferwouldbeneeded,orwhattechnologytransfershouldlooklike.Thepurpose israthertoidentifythetechnologiesneededforatransitiontoalowcarbonpowersysteminthe country.DiscussionofgenerictechnologytransferissuesisincludedinETP2010(IEA,2010a). Thepapercomprisesthreesections: Chapter1providesanoverviewofthecurrentsituationintheIndianpowersector.Itdescribes theavailableindigenousfossilandnuclearresourcesaswellasrenewablepotentials. Chapter 2 highlights the existing Indian policies affecting the power sector, and discusses the currentdevelopmentstrategiesforpowertechnologiesinIndia. Chapter3presentsfuturescenariosforthedevelopmentoftheIndianpowersector. Since factors affecting future Indian electricity demand, such as economic growth, are highly uncertain, chapter 3 also analyses the results of two strong growth cases of the Baseline and BLUEScenarios.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Chapter1:Overviewofcurrentsituation
Globalcontext
Globally,thepowersectorisresponsibleformorethantwofifths(41%)oftotalenergyrelated Page|13 CO2emissions.In2007,thepowersectoraccountedfor12gigatonnes(Gt)ofCO2(IEA,2009a);in the IEA Baseline Scenario, this figure climbs to 23Gt of CO2 by 2050 (IEA, 2010a). Coalfired powerplantsareexpectedtobethemainsourceofthisconsiderableincrease. However, the power sector holds strong potential to play a key role in CO2 reduction, as it has centralised majorsources,provenalternativelowcarbontechnologyoptionsandrelativelylow abatement costs. The IEA estimates that a virtual decarbonisation of the power sector can be achieved with CO2 abatement costs of between USD50/tCO2 and USD100/tCO2. By contrast, halving global emissions in other sectors would require options with a cost of up to USD175/tCO2. Emissions reduction in the power sector can contribute onethird of the total reduction needed in BLUE Map compared to Baseline in 2050, 14Gt of CO2 reduction out of 43.3Gt(Figure1.1).
Figure1.1:ReductionofCO2emissionsintheBLUEMapScenariobysector,201050

60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010

GtCO2

Baselineemissions57Gt

Buildings14% Transport37% Industry17% Powersector32%


BLUEMapemissions14Gt

WEO2009450ppm case

ETP2010 analysis

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Source:IEA,2010a.

This excludes any additional benefits that might arise from enduse electricity savings and widespreaduseofcarbonfreeelectricityasasubstituteforfossilfuels. The cost and savings potential estimated in ETP2010 (IEA,2010a) assume a global decarbonisationofthepowersector.Withoutsuchglobalaction,itwillnotbepossibletoachieve emissions halving, and the cost to reach the same level of emissions reduction will be much higher. Therefore, it is imperative that every country contributes towards this target. (The questionofhowtofinancethisreductionisnotaddressedinthispaper.)

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

TheIndiancontext
The Republic of India is the seventhlargest country in the world. The land area covers 2.97millionsquarekilometres(km2)withanelevatedtablelandinthesouth,desertsinthewest, and in the north the Himalayan mountains and plains along the Ganges River (IEA,2010d). Page|14 Politically,Indiaisafederalstatedividedinto27statesand7unionterritories(UTs). India has the secondlargest population after China, with an estimated 1.123billion people in 2007,about17%oftheworldstotalpopulation.In2008,60%ofthelabourforcewasinvolvedin agriculture, 12% in industry and 28% in services. India has the largest rural population in the world:in2008,some71%ofthepopulation(828millionpeople)livedinruralareas.Therateof migration to urban areas, at 2.3% per year, is lower in India than in many other developing countries(IEA,2010a). Indias GDP was slightly over USD4trillion (INR181trillion) in 2007.2 Annual GDP growth has been high, averaging 7.6% from 2000 to 2007. In 2007, services accounted for 54.9% of total GDP, industry for 26.6% and agriculture for 18.5% (MoF, 2008a). The share of services in total GDPismuchhigherthanthatinmostotherdevelopingeconomies. While economic development has led to an increase in the average standard of living, it has largely bypassed most of the rural poor. So although the Indian economy has grown rapidly, povertyremainsamajorchallenge.

Economicandenergyindicators
India ranked third in the world in 2007 in terms of absolute GDP, based on purchasing power parity (PPP); but on a percapita basis it is in 100th position, well behind other fastgrowing economiessuchasBrazil(69th),China(75th),Russia(54th)andSouthAfrica(57th). Indiasprimaryenergyconsumptionpercapitain2007waswith0.53toepercapita(/cap)much lower than that of China (1.50toe/cap) and also below the world average of 1.82toe/cap. For electricity consumption the difference is even more pronounced: Indias consumption of 543kWh/capwasonlyonefifthoftheworldaverage(Table1.1). LowenergyconsumptionisamainreasonbehindIndiasverylowCO2emissionspercapita(the otherfactoristhehighprimaryenergyshareoftraditionalbiomass).With1.19tonnesofcarbon dioxide per capita (tCO2/cap), Indias percapita emissions in 2007 were well below the world averageof4.38tCO2/cap.

Energyconsumption
India consumed 600Mtoe of primary energy in 2007 (Figure1.2). Coal represented the largest primary energy source with a share of 40%. Despite a doubling of domestic coal production between 2000 and 2007, imports have taken an increasing share of total primary coal supply, from9%in2000to14%in2007.Biomassandoileachprovidearoundonequarteroftheprimary energydemand.Thelargebiomasssharereflectstheuseoftraditionalbiomassforheatingand cooking,whichaccountsforlargesharesoffinalenergyneedsintheresidential(78%)andservice (46%)sectors.
2 USDandINRinpricesoftheyear2000andexchangerateintermsofpurchasingpowerparity(PPP).

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Table1.1:Highlevelenergyindicatorsfortheworldandfourregions,2007 World 6609 148.94 39493 61428 11940 n.a. 12029 n.a. 4090 18187 28.9 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.30 0.20 1.82 n.a. 0.10 0.62 0.46 2752 India 1123 2.97 771 4025 451 150 600 107 146 610 1.34 0.75 0.87 0.27 0.71 0.78 0.15 0.53 0.14 0.19 0.13 0.79 543 China 1327 9.57 2623 10156 1814 194 1994 200 382 3114 6.15 0.91 1.02 0.49 0.94 0.76 0.20 1.50 0.08 0.15 0.29 1.19 2347 OECD Europe 543 4.95 10532 13223 1067 846 1926 495 735 3387 4.37 0.55 0.56 0.32 0.53 0.18 0.14 3.55 0.05 0.07 1.35 0.32 6239 United States 302 9.16 11468 11468 1665 714 2387 634 957 4113 5.92 0.70 1.02 0.33 0.83 0.21 0.21 7.90 0.06 0.08 3.17 0.36 13616
Page|15

Population(millions) Landarea(millionkm2) GDP(billionUSD2000usingMER) GDP(billionUSD2000usingPPP) Energyproduction(Mtoe) Netimports(Mtoe) Totalprimaryenergysupply(Mtoe) Netoilimports(Mtoe) Oilsupply(Mtoe) Electricityconsumption(TWh) CO2emissions(Gt) Totalenergyselfsufficiency Coalandpeatselfsufficiency Oilselfsufficiency Gasselfsufficiency TPES/GDP(toeperthousandUSD2000, MER) TPES/GDP(toeperthousandUSD2000,PPP) TPES/population(toe/cap) Netoilimports/GDP (toeperthousandUSD2000) Oilsupply/GDP(toeper thousandUSD2000) Oilsupply/population(toe/cap) Electricityconsumption/GDP(kWhper USD2000) Electricityconsumption/population(kWh/cap)

Notes:MERismarketexchangeratesandPPPispurchasingpowerparity.TPESreferstototalprimaryenergysupply.International marinebunkersandaviationareincludedinTPESandCO2emissions. Sources:IEA,2009b;IEA,2009d.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Figure1.2:TotalprimaryenergysupplyinIndia(600Mtoein2007)

Biomassand waste 27%


Page|16

Hydro 2% Nuclear 1% Naturalgas 6% Oil 24%


Source:IEA,2009b.

Coal 40%

The power sector in India was responsible for 36% of primary energy consumption in 2007, a share comparable to the world average of 35%. The important role of biomass in the energy sectorbecomesmoreapparentinthefinalenergymix,wherebiomasshadthelargestsharewith 41%in2007,against27%foroil(Figure1.3).
Figure1.3:TotalfinalenergyconsumptioninIndia(394Mtoein2007)

Biomass, wasteand other 41%

Industry(44%)

Electricity 12% Oil 27% Coal 15%


Source:IEA,2009b.

Residential(21%) Agriculture(19%) Services(8%) Nonspecified(5%)

Naturalgas 5%

Indiasloweroilconsumptionpercapitacompared totheother countries/regions(Table1.1)is explained by relatively low usage in transport. Transport accounted for only 41% of oil consumptioninIndia,whereasitaccountsfor79%ofoilconsumptionintheUnitedStatesand 68%inOECDEurope. Electricityaccountedforonly12%ofIndiasfinalenergyneedsin2007,against21%intheOECD. Industry constitutes 44% of total electricity consumption in India, followed by the residential

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

sectorwith21%,agriculturewith19%andtheservicesectorwith8%(IEA,2009b).Agricultures largeshareofelectricityuseiscausedbymorethan15millionelectricpumpsets,whichtendto have poor efficiency. Low electricity tariffs to farmers reduce the incentive to invest in more efficientpumps.TheBureauofEnergyEfficiency(BEE)estimatesanelectricitysavingpotentialof 30%throughtheuseofmoreefficientpumps(BEE,2009).
Page|17

Regionalandsectoralvariations
Industrial development has contributed significantly to economic growth in India over the last fewdecades.However,industrialisationhasnotbeenuniform:large,modernurbancentres,such asDelhiandMumbai,coexistwiththetraditionalruralandagrarianeconomyinstatessuchas Bihar. Due to its industry and banking sectors, the state of Maharashtra in the west has the largestGDPamongtheIndianstatesandaccountsalonefor14%ofthenationalGDP.Percapita GDPvariesdrasticallyacrossthecountry,fromINR119240/cap(USD2889/cap3)inChandigarh inthenorthtoINR12643/cap(USD306/cap)inBiharinthewest(MoF,2010). Thevaryingsectoralgrowthrates,consumptionpatternsandresourceendowmentshaveledto widelydifferentregionalandsectoralenergyconsumptionandGHGemissions.Regionalanalyses of the CO2 and GHG data for the years 1995 (Garg et al., 2001) and 2000 (Kapshe, Garg and Shukla,2002)showsignificantdifferencesamongdistrictsintermsofGHGemissionspersquare metre. GHG intensities range from values below 100tCO2equivalent (tCO2eq)/km2 in some Himalayan districts to more than 10000tCO2eq/km2 in the metropolitan area of Chennai. The highestemissionsoccurinabandfromPunjabtoCalcuttainthesouth,andalongtheeastcoast. MostoftheelectricityisconsumedinthenorthernpartofIndia(Figure1.4).ThestatesPunjab, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, and the capital Delhi are together responsible for onefifth of Indias final electricity demand. Residential, industry and agriculture sectors are the main electricity consumers in this part of India, which has to rely on electricity imports to cover demand.IndustryisthemaindriverforcomparablyhighelectricityneedsinMaharashtrainthe west, Andhra Pradesh in the east and Tamil Nadu in the south. Each of these three states is responsible for around 10% of the national electricity demand. At the opposite end of the spectrum,thenortheasternregionaccountsforlessthan1%ofIndiaselectricitydemand. Domestic electricity usealsovariesby stateandterritory.Ona percapitabasis,itwasin 2007 highestinDelhiwith424kWh/cap;andlowestinBiharintheeastwithonly18kWh/cap.Ona regional level, consumption varied from 149kWh/cap in southern India to 43kWh/cap in the northeastern region. The national average for India was 106kWh/cap in 2007, which is much lower than the average residential electricity consumption of 4615kWh/cap in the United States,1595kWh/capinOECDEuropeand281kWh/capinChina.
3 Currencyconversionswithinthispaperarebasedontheaveragenominalexchangeratesintheconsideredyears,unlessstatedotherwise.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Figure1.4:FinalelectricitydemandinIndiabysectorandbyregionin2006/07

Page|18

Notes: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebythe IEA.ThedefinitionoftheregionswithinIndiacorrespondstotheoneusedinthegeographical modelanalysis(seeAnnexB). Source:CEA,2009a.

For India, on average, space conditioning (heating and cooling through airconditioning units, fansandevaporativeaircoolers)accountsfor45% ofresidentialelectricity consumption, while lightingaccountsfor28%(Figure1.5).
Figure1.5:Indiaselectricityusebreakdownincommercialandresidentialbuildings

Residential buildings
Others10% TV4% Lighting28%

Commercialbuildings
Others8%

Refrigeration 13%

Evaporativeair cooler4%

Heating, ventilation,air conditioning 32%


Airconditioning 7%

Lighting60%

Fans34%

Source:Bassi,n.d.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

InatypicalcommercialbuildinginIndia,itisestimatedthatabout60%ofthetotalelectricityis used for lighting, 32% for space conditioning as well as 8% for heating ventilation and air conditioning.Electricityneedsforspacecoolingcouldbereducedbymoreefficientconventional airconditioning technologies, combined with evaporative air coolers or seawater cooling, dependingonlocalconditions(Box1).
Box1:Spacecoolingtechnologiesandtheiruse The future of space cooling is a key question for residential electricity demand in India, where air conditioningequipmentisnotyetwidespreadbutevaporativeaircoolers(alsoknownasswampor wetaircoolers)arewidelyused. Evaporativeaircoolersusethehotairfromwithinthebuildingtoevaporatewater.Theevaporation cools the outgoing air, and this cooling is transferred to the incoming air in a heat exchanger. This system can be combined with conventional airconditioning for further cooling. Such hybrid air conditioningsystemsreducebyonehalftheenergyuseofconventionalairconditioners(Bootsveld and Afink, 2002), but they are only suited for dry, inland climate conditions, not for the humid, coastalcitiesofIndia. It is estimated that, in 2006, 22.5million air coolers were used in the Indian residential sector, comparedto2millionairconditionerunits(WorldBank,2008).Ifalltheevaporativeaircoolersexisting in 2006 were replaced by airconditioning units, Indias residential electricity demand would be approximately17TWhhigher,correspondingto15%oftheresidentialelectricityconsumptionin2006.
Page|19

Powersector
TheIndianelectricitysystem
TotalIndianinstalledcapacitystoodat168GWon31March2008(CEA,2009a),ofwhich143GW was utilityowned, with shares as follows: coal (53.1%); hydro (25.1%); gas (10.3%); renewable energy sources (7.8%); nuclear (2.9%) and diesel (0.8%).4 To ensure the supply and quality of their power requirements, many industries have installed their own plants. Of the 25GW of industrial,captive(privatelyowned)plants47.1%wascoalbased,34.6%diesel,16.8%gas,1.2% windand0.2%hydro.Almostonethirdofindustrialelectricitydemandwasprovidedbycaptive powerplantsin2007/08;thissharewasmuchlowerintheUnitedStates(17%)andOECDEurope (23%). The enactment of the ElectricityAct2003 in India eased the regulations for industrial concerns building power plants and allowed industryowned plants to feed electricity into the public grid (GoI, 2003). As a consequence, captive power capacity grew by 57% between 2002 and2009,comparedtoagrowthof41%inpubliccapacity(Figure1.6).
4 ETP2010 used 2007/08 as base year to allow comparison with other countries for which (in contrast to India) comprehensive statisticswerenotyetavailableformorerecentyears.CEAreportsthatIndiastotalinstalledgridconnectedcapacitytotalled183GW on31July2010(CEA,2010a).

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Figure1.6:DevelopmentoftotalinstalledcapacityinIndia

GW

180 160 140 Captiverailways Captivegas Captivediesel Captivesteam Captivehydro Utilitiesrenewables Utilitiesnuclear Utilitiesdiesel Utilitiesgas Utilitiescoal/lignite 1979 1980 1985 1990 1992 1997 2002 2007 2008 Utilitieshydro

Page|20

120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Source:CEA,2009b.

Indias power sector is highly dependent on coal, which has 52% of installed power capacity. Mostofthecoalcapacityhasbeenaddedoverthelastthreedecades(Figure1.7).Gascapacity has increased since the 1990s, as a result of several factors. Steps to liberalise the Indian economy after the crisis in 1990/91 led to an accelerated buildup of the necessary gas supply infrastructure. In addition, the start of liberalisation of the power market allowed industrial consumers to become less dependent on unreliable public supply by building their own gas based plants. Due to lower impact on land and air pollution, these faced less local opposition thancoalpowerprojects.
Figure1.7:Agestructureofexistingpowercapacity
GW
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Wind Biomass Pumpedstorage Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

Sources:Platts,2010;IEAanalysis.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Since 2003 the number of new hydro plant installations has also increased, thanks to better preparationofhydroprojectsbyavoidingerrorsmadeinpastprojects(e.g.delayinequipment ordering, poor geological assessment, environmental clearance, land acquisition), leading to shorterimplementationtimes. Theinstalledcapacitymixisdifferentfromtheactualelectricitygenerationmix,asloadfactors dependonthetypeofplant.Abouttwothirdsofallpowerwasgeneratedfromcoalandlignite Page|21 firedplants(Figure1.8).
Figure1.8:Indiaselectricalgenerationcapacityandgrossgeneration,2007/08

Installedcapacity168GW Oil5.9% Natural gas 11.2% Nuclear 2.5%

Electricitygeneration813TWh

Coal 52.2%

Coal 66.6%

Oil 1.7% Natural gas 11.7% Nuclear 2.1% Other 3.1% Hydro 14.8%

Hydro 21.4% Other 6.8%

Note:GenerationnumbersrefertotheIndianfiscalyearrunningfrom1April2007to31March2008.Capacitynumbersreflectthe situationattheendofthefiscalyear. Source:CEA,2009a.

Plantloadfactors(PLFs)ofthefirstdomesticallyproducedcoalplantsinthe1970s/1980swere quitelow,withanaverageloadfactorof52%forIndiain1985.Designdeficienciesandlackof maintenancewerethemainreasonsforthepoorperformanceofIndiancoalpowerplantsduring thatperiod.Theseinitialproblemsweresolvedovertime,soPLFsimproved,reaching78.6%in 2007/08,afigurecomparabletoplantsintheUS,whichhadachieved73.6%in2007. Theaveragegrossefficiency5ofIndiancoalandlignitefiredpowerplantsin2008/09was32.7% based on a higher heating value (HHV) and 33.9% based on a lower heating value (LHV)6 (Bhushan, 2010). Indias average gross coal plant efficiency (LHV) of 32.7% in 2007 was slightly lower than the world average of 34.6% (IEA, 2010a). The auxiliary consumption of coalfired plant,witharangefrom6%to13%oftotalgrosspowerproducedandwithanaverageof8.3% (CEA,2009a),isquitehighcomparedtoanaverageauxiliaryconsumptionof5.7%forEuropean coalpowerplantsin2008(Eurostat,2010).Thereareanumberofreasonsforthishighauxiliary consumptionofIndiancoalplants:fansandpumpsoperatingbelowtheirdesignpoint,leakages
5 The gross efficiency includes the auxiliary electricity consumption within the power plant, e.g. for fans, while the net efficiency accountsonlyfortheelectricityleavingtheplant,whichiswhygrossefficiencyofapowerplantishigherthanitsnetefficiency. 6 Thehigherheatingvalue(HHV)ofafueliscalculatedwiththeassumptionthatthewaterproductofthecombustionisinliquidform, whereasthelowerheatingvalue(LHV)assumesthewatertobeinvapourform.Duetothelatentheatofvaporisingthewater,the LHVishigherthantheHHV.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

inthecombustionairsystem,andlackofmaintenanceinthecoalmills.Apreliminaryassessment of the IndoGerman Energy Programme estimates a potential saving of 4.2% of the total coal consumedinIndianplantsifall210MWcoalunits(144unitsintotal)inIndiaweretooperateat theefficiencyobservedatthebestunitwithinitsageclass(Chakarvarti,2010).
Page|22

TheaveragenetefficiencyforgasfiredpowerplantsinIndiain2008/09was41.9%,comparable totheworldaverageof41.5%in2007. A total of 54.085GW renewable capacity, grid connected and distributed, was in place as of 31March2010 (Table1.2). Wind power has been growing rapidly and represents 75% of the target for renewable power capacity additions (excluding large hydro) in the current 11thFive YearPlan(Verma,2008).7
Table1.2:Indianrenewablepowergenerationcapacities,31March2010

Technicalpotential
(MW)

Installedcapacity
(MW)

Gridconnected Biopower(agroresidues) Windpower Smallhydropower(upto25MW) Largehydropower(largerthan25MW) Cogenerationbagasse Wastetoenergy SolarPVpower Totalgridconnected Distributedgeneration Biomasspower/cogeneration Biomassgasifier Wastetoenergy SolarPVpower Aerogenerators/hybridsystems Totaldistributedrenewables
Note:TechnicalpotentialsforrenewablesinIndiaarediscussedinChapter2. Sources:WEC,2009;Mercados,2010.

40000 48000 15000 150000 5000 2700 260700 866 11807 2735 36863 1334 65 10 53680 122 47 2 1 232 405

Indiaadded22.2GWofrenewablecapacity(excludinglargehydro)between2002and2009,an averageof3.2GWperyear(CEA,2009b).Thisgrowthratewouldneedtoberapidlyincreased, by more than a factor of five, to achieve the required average annual capacity additions of 18.8GWbetween2007and2012statedinthe11thFiveYearPlan(Verma,2008). The Indian power sector faces a number of difficulties. Power outages and unreliability of electricitysuppliesrestrictthecountry'soveralleconomicdevelopment.Shortagesinelectricity supplywere10.1%in2009/10,andshortagesinpeakcapacityamountedtomorethan15GW,
7 RenewablecapacityinIndianstatisticsandplansexcludeslargehydroplants(largerthan25MW),whicharelistedseparately.Large hydropowerplantsareundertheresponsibilityoftheMinistryofPower(MoP),whereaspoliciesforsmallhydropowerplantsare undertheresponsibilityoftheMinistryofNewandRenewableEnergy(MNRE).

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

correspondingto12.7%ofthepeakdemandof119GW(CEA,2010b).Deficitsinelectricitysupply andpeakcapacityhaveresultedfromgrowthindemandoutstrippingincreasesincapacity.Peak demand,forexample,grewfrom73GWin1999/2000to119GWin2009/10,anaverageannual growthof5%.Thelastthreefiveyearplanshaveshownthatactualcapacityadditionshavebeen below those targeted: on average only 50.5% of the foreseen capacity has been added. Governmentcontrolledpricescrosssubsidiselowertariffsfortheresidentialandfarmingsector Page|23 withhighertariffsforindustryandcommerce.Asaresult,averagepriceofelectricitysoldcovers only a portion of the average production costs. The total underrecovery of costs, which was estimated to be INR431billion (USD10billion) in 2008 (MoF,2008b), discourages private investmentintheIndianpowersector(MathyandGuivarch,2009). Most of these shortcomings are not entirely technical, but they have an influence on the effectivenessandefficiencyoftransitiontotherequiredtechnology.

TheIndianpowergrid
TheIndianelectricitytransmissionsystemisdividedintofiveregionalgrids.SinceAugust2006, four of the regional grids have been integrated: the Northern, Eastern, Western and North Easterngrids(theNEWNEgrid).Onlythesoutherngridstilloperatesindependently,coveringthe states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Lakshadweep. The southerngridisscheduledtobesynchronisedwithNEWNEbytheendofthe12thFiveYearPlan (201217).Atpresent,thesoutherngridisconnectedtothewesternandeasterngridsthrougha highvoltage direct current (HVDC) transmission line and HVDC backtoback systems (Figure1.9).8 The total transmission capacity of lines with a voltage level of 110kV stands at 20.8GW (Alagh,2010). This corresponds to only 12% of the installed generation capacity. The 11thFive YearPlanhassetthetargettoboostthetransmissioncapacityfrom14GWin2007to32.6GW by2012.Thisisanambitiousgoal,giventhatduringthefirsttwoyearsofthe11thFiveYearPlan only5.9GWhavebeenbuilt(GoI,2010). Indias T&D losses are among the highest in the world, averaging 32% of total electricity generation, with losses in some states as high as 50% (CEA,2008a).9 Both technical and commercialfactorscontributetotheselosses,butquantifyingtheirproportionsisdifficult.Some expertsestimatethattechnicallossesareabout15%to20%(Bhushan,2010).Ahighproportion of nontechnical losses are caused by illegal tapping of lines, but faulty electric meters that underestimateactualconsumptionalsocontributetoreducedpaymentcollection.Acasestudy inKeralaestimatedthatreplacingfaultymeterscouldreducedistributionlossesfrom34%to29% (SureshandElachola,2000). Losses in distribution power lines also result from the geographical spread of the system, especially for rural distribution systems with a small number of consumers spread over a large area.Inextremecases,lossesintheseregionsmayexceed30%(SureshandElachola,2000).Due tohistoricaldevelopment,thelengthoflowvoltagelinesinthesedistributionnetworksexceeds thelengthofhighvoltagelines.
8 PurposeofanHVDCbacktobacksystemistoconnecttwoasynchronousoperatingnetworks.Itisaplantinwhichtheequipment necessarytotransformalternatingcurrentintodirect current,and vice versa (staticinvertersand rectifiers),areinthesame area, usuallyinthesamebuilding.Thelengthofthedirectcurrentlineiskeptasshortaspossible. 9 TheT&Dlossesmentionedaretheaggregatedtechnicalandcommercial(ATC)losses,whicharedefinedasthedifferencebetween electricityinputintothegridandtheelectricityforwhichpaymentiscollected.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Figure1.9:TransmissioncapacitiesamongIndiasfiveregionalgridsattheendof2008

Page|24

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebytheIEA. Source:CEA,2008b.

Thehighratiooflowvoltagetohighvoltagelinekilometresleadstohighvoltageandlinelosses. Insuchsystems,theratiooflowtohighvoltagelinekilometresshouldbeoptimisedbyincreasing thenumberoflowercapacitysubstations.Convertingsinglephasesupplytothreephasesupply wouldreducelossesfurther. Thepowerfactorisoneinfluenceontheefficiencyofanelectricitygrid.Itisdefinedastheratio of real power to reactive power. Real power is the net transfer of power to the consumer, whereasreactivepowerisstoredinthesystemandreturnedtothesource.Inanelectricpower system,aloadwithalowpowerfactordrawsmorecurrentthanaloadwithahighpowerfactor forthesameamountofusefulpowertransferred.Thus,highercurrentsincreasetheenergylost inthesystem.Ideally,thepowerfactorshouldbeaboveunity.Toreducetheselossesintimesof lowpowerfactor,oftendecreasingto0.8inoffpeaktimesinruraldistributionsystemsinIndia, installingdevicessuchascapacitorscanhelptoincreasethepowerfactorandreducelosses. Duringperiodsofpeakload,currentelectricitylossesmayevenexceed45%,duetooverloading ofthedistributionequipment.Designingsystemswithsufficientreserveisthereforeimportant. Obviously, this reserve capacity adds to the upfront investment cost, requiring a tradeoff betweeninvestmentanddistributioncosts. Measurestoreducepeakdemandshouldalsobepromoted.Sincethedailypeakdemandinrural Indianareastypicallyoccursintheeveningthroughlightingloads,replacingincandescentlights bycompactfluorescentlampscanhelptoreducethepeakload. InadditiontoimprovingtheefficiencyoftheIndianT&Dsystem,itisimportanttoincreasethe electrificationrate.Around404millionpeopleinIndia,or36%ofthepopulation,mostlylivingin ruralareas,havenoaccesstoelectricity(IEA,2010c).Ruralelectrificationhasbeenanimportant issue of Indias policies since its independence. Initially the focus was on electrification of irrigationpumpsforagriculture,especiallyduringthetimeofthegreenrevolutioninthe1960s.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Since then the emphasis has changed towards access to electricity as a prerequisite for social and economic development (Oda and Tsujita, 2010). At the end of March 2010, 84% of Indian villageswereelectrified.Theratehasacceleratedrapidlyoverrecentyearsthroughgovernment programmes, but there are still wide discrepancies between different parts of India. While severalstates,suchasAndhraPradesh,PunjabandHaryana,achieved100%electrificationrates, theratesremainlowinJharkhand(31%),Bihar(61%)andOrissa(63%).10 Page|25 An improved grid should be a top priority for reducing constraints on power supply and increasing access to electricity throughout the country. Substantial investments are needed to achievethis.Althoughpowertransmissionprojectswereopenedtoprivateinvestmentsin1998, successhassofarbeenlimited(GoI,2010). However,someencouragingexamplesillustratehowtoovercometheseproblems.Atariffbased competitive bidding system is one way of stimulating private sector investments. The state of Rajasthan awarded two large transmission projects through tariffbased competitive bidding in 2010.Jointventuresbetweenstateownedandprivatecompaniescanbeanotherapproach.In Maharashtra, the western state's power utility Mahatransco formed a minorityequity joint venturewithJSWEnergyin2008toimplementatransmissionsystemforJSWEnergy's1200MW Jaigadcoalfiredpowerproject(ElectricalMonitor,2010). Inthedistributionsector,privatisationoftheDelhisystemin2002appearedtobequitesuccessful. Instead of a tariffbased bidding, the bidding process focused on reduction in losses/efficiency gains, with tariffs and incentives based on achievement of improvement targets (Alagh, 2010). Distributionlosseswerereducedfrommorethan50%in2002tobelow20%in2009. Forremotevillages,developmentofaminigridbasedondistributedelectricitygenerationmay beanalternativetoconnectiontothecentralgrid.Suchastrategyrequiresaccesstolocalenergy sources such as hydro, biomass or solar energy and the use of a robust power generation technology(e.g.aminihydroplant).Localpeoplecanthenmanageandmaintainthesystem.

Resourceavailability
In2007,Indiaprovided77%ofitstotalprimaryenergyneedsfromdomesticenergyresources. This represents a high degree of selfsufficiency compared to other world regions or countries, suchasOECDEurope (55%)ortheUnitedStates (70%).The contributionofimportsneededto cover Indias energy needs is, however, increasing: from a net import share of 10% in 1990 to 23%in2007.Thistrendisdrivenbyincreasedoilimportsforthetransportandindustrysector. Alsocoalimportshavebeenrisingoverrecentyearsdespiteindigenousreserves,sincedomestic coal suffers from a high ash content and its low quality reduces power generation efficiency. Moreover,onthewest coastindigenouscoalismoreexpensivethanimported coaldue tothe costofrailtransportfromthecoalminesintheeast. India has significant hydropower potential, of which only around onequarter has been developed so far. It also has a vast underutilised solar potential. Other renewable potentials, suchasbiomass,windandgeothermalenergy,areratherrestricted.

10 The village electrification rate differs from the proportion of the population with access to electricity, since according to Indias MinistryofPoweravillageisconsideredelectrifiedifithasdistributiontransformersandlines,electricityisprovidedtopublicplaces andatleast10%ofthehouseholdsareelectrified(MoP,2004).

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Uranium resources for nuclear power generation in India are limited. Only 1% of the global uranium resources are found in India. India has huge thorium resources, but exploiting them requiresnucleartechnologiesthataremorecomplexthantheuraniumfuelledLWRtechnology usedinotherpartsoftheworld.
Page|26

Resourcesforthermalpowergeneration
Indias 58.6billion tonnes (bt) of proven hard coal reserves comprise 7% of global reserves (Table1.3).Intermsoftotalcoalresources,11itrankssixthintheworldaftertheUnitedStates, China,Russia,UnitedKingdomandPoland.Foroilandgas,Indiasreservesaremuchlowerthan thoseofcountriessuchasChinaortheUnitedStates.
Table1.3:ProvenfossilenergyreservesinIndia,China,OECDEurope,theUnitedStatesandtheworld Hardcoal Crudeoil Naturalgas Uranium Thorium Unit bt Mtoe bcm kt kt India 58.6 769 1050 141 319 China 114.5 3300 2455 44 OECD Europe 18.5 2219 5044 469 476 United States 238.3 3700 6730 2952 400 World 826 170800 185020 14243 2573

Sources:BGR,2009;IEA,2010a;NEA/IAEA,2008.

Similarly for uranium, indigenous resources are relatively small. India has huge thorium resources,representing12%oftheworldresources,whichcouldbeusedinsteadofuraniumfor nuclearpowergeneration(withprovisonotedabove).

Coal
India has geological hard coal resources of 267bt, and proven resources of 106bt (status 1April2009). These quantities represent inplace resources and include nonrecoverable resources. At prevailing prices and technology, experts estimate that only 21% of the inplace resources can be recovered (inplace resource to mineable reserve ratio of 4.7:1). Recoverable coal reserves are, thus, about 58.6bt. Some threequarters (76%) of the proven reserve is at a depthoflessthan300m,and61%ofthetotalresourcesisatadepthoflessthan300m(Mills, 2007). Together the states of Jharkand, Chhatisgarh and Orissa account for 70% of Indian coal resources(Figure1.10).Only13%ofthecoalresourceisofcokingquality;theremainderishigh ashsteamcoal(Mills,2007).ThetotalofIndiaslignitereservesareestimatedat38bt,ofwhich around3.7btto4.3btareconsideredasproven(Mills,2007;BGR,2009).

11 Total coal resources include not only proven reserves but also coal deposits which are not economically feasible to produce, or moreuncertainintermsofrecoverablequantities.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Figure1.10:MajorcoalfieldsandminingcentresinIndia

Page|27

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebytheIEA. Source:IEA,2007.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Withahardcoalproductionof489milliontonnes(Mt),Indiawasthethirdlargestcoalproducer in the world in 2008, after China and the United States. Coal India Ltd., a public sector undertaking of the Indian government, dominates the coal market with a production share of 82%in2008.TheMinistryofCoalexpectsthatIndiancoalproductionwillincreaseto630Mtby 2012(MinistryofCoal,2010).
Page|28

GeographyisoneofthebiggestbarriersfacingthecoalindustryinIndia.Thecoalbedsareoften in remote areas where safety is an issue and access rights are not guaranteed. Also, large populations live immediately above many of the coal reserves. Negotiations to allocate mines betweenstateandcentralgovernmentcandelaydevelopmentbyadecadeormore.Giventhese barrierstheexpansiontargetseemschallenging,andthegovernmenthassanctionedincreased coal imports. Five of the nine sites considered within the Ultramega Power Projects (UMPP) programme,whichaimsfortheconstructionof14largecoalpowerprojectseachwithacapacity of4GW,arelocatedatthewestandeastcoastsandwillrelyonimportedcoal. Cumulative coal demand in the ETP2010 BaselineScenario for India (IEA, 2010a) is around 36Gtcoalequivalent(Gtcoe)overtheperiodto2050,correspondingtoalmosttwothirdsofthe present proven reserves. As a gradual rise and fall of indigenous supply is likely, based on the bellshapedsupplycurvethathasbeenobservedelsewhere,theBaselineScenariowouldimply massivecoalimports,ofabout25%to50%oftotalsupplyin2050.Importsarealreadyrapidly increasing: India imported 52Mtcoe of coal in 2008, about 16% of total coal supply. The rapid increaseinimportscan,inpart,beexplainedby: indigenouscoalproductionnothavingkeptpacewithdemand; supplycostofindigenouscoalonthewestcoastbeinghigherthanforimportedcoal;and indigenous coal being of low quality (up to 50% ash), which limits efficiency and power productioncapacity.

Carboncaptureandstorage
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a system of technologies that integrates three stages: CO2 capture, transport, and geological storage. Each of these stages is technically viable and they have been demonstrated individually in relation to electricity generation, but not in integrated formoronacommercialscaleforpowergeneration(IEA,2010a).IfavailableinthefutureCCS may,however,playanimportantroleinreachingdeepCO2reductionsinpowergeneration,not onlyinOECDcountries,butespeciallyindevelopingregionsasChinaandIndiathatrelystrongly oncoalforpowergeneration. IndiahassomepotentialstoragesitesforCCSintwomaingeologicalformations:thedepletedoil and gas fields, unmineable coal seams and saline aquifers in sedimentation basins; and the volcanic(basalt)rocksoftheDeccantrapsinwestcentralIndia. Thefirstgroupincludespotentialstoragesitesinthreemainregions:inthewest,Rajahstanalong the Pakistan border, the Cambay basin north of Ahmedabad, and the offshore Mumbai basin; alongtheeastcoasttheCauveryandGodavarybasins(southandnorthofChennai);andAssam in the northeast. The total storage potential in this category is estimated to be 65Gt. These potentialsareregionallyconcentrated,soMumbai,ChennaiandAhmedabadcanstoresignificant amountsofCO2whileotherareassuchasDelhiandCalcuttacannot.TheIndianstoragepotential in depleted oil and gas fields is estimated to be in the range 3.7GtCO2to4.6GtCO2, while the storagepotentialincoalseamsismuchsmallerat345MtCO2(IEAGHG,2008).

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Box2:Costofcoalimportsvs.indigenoussupply Superior grades (A, B, C, D) have contributed onethird of the proven noncoke coal resources in India.12 The rest were inferior grades (E, F, G), which are typically used for power generation (ChikkaturandSagar,2007). Indias hard coal reserves are concentrated in the east, in a band that stretches from Chhattisgarh over Orissa and West Bengal to the Bangladesh border. This band continues further northeast in Assam.ThetypicaldistancefortransporttoDelhi,MumbaiorChennaifromthewesternpartofthis band is 1500km. Twothirds (66%) of all coal was transported by rail in 2005/06 (Raghuram and Gangwar, 2008). About 88% of all coal transported by rail originated in mines; the remaining 12% from harbours (total 370Mt in 2008/09). Only 20% of all steam coal that arrives by ship is subsequentlytransportedbyrail. Costfactors Railtransportationcostsoveradistanceof1500kmfromthecoalminesintheeasttotheelectricity demand centres, such as Delhi, Mumbai or Chennai, are typically INR 1300 per tonne of coal (USD30/t)(IR,2006).TheminemouthcostofcoalisintherangeUSD15/ttoUSD20/t.Theenergy content of washed Indian coal for power generation is typically 18MJ/t, vs. 26MJ/t for imported coal. So in harbour locations on the west and south coasts, imported coal may cost INR90/GJ (USD2/GJ),vs.INR180/GJ(USD4/GJ)forindigenouscoal. Formoreinlandlocations,costsareclosertoparity,whileonlocationsintheeast,indigenouscoalis cheaper.ThepolicyoftheGovernmentofIndiastipulatesuseofonlywasheddomesticcoalbypower plantslocatedatdistancesof1000kmormorefromcoalmines.However,availabilityofwashedcoal islimited. Transportcapacity Railtransportcapacityposesimportantconstraints.Onaverage620trainsloadedwithcoalcrossed the country daily in 2008/09, 44% of all freight transport in tonnes, 42% in tonnekilometres (tkm) and38%inearnings(IR,2010).Theaveragetransportdistanceforcoalwas623kmin2008/09.Coal and other freight transport is subsidising passenger transportation. Actual freight costs are about onethirdbelowtransportationprices. If coal transport expands in line with the Baseline Scenario, a massive increase in rail transport capacitywillbeneeded,astotalfreightvolumeswouldtriple(anincreaseof2.7%peryear).Asother freight transport will also increase, a 5% to 6% growth per year will be needed. Typically about 200kmoftrackhasbeenaddedperyearinthepast20years(0.23%peryear),andabout250kmper yearoftrackdoubling(0.29%peryear).Thiscanbecomparedtoatotaltracklengthof86937km. The gross freightkm per trackkm ratio has increased by more than 50% between 1999 and 2009 throughanincreasedaxleload,quickerturnaroundtimesandhighertrainspeed.Furtherpotential exists to increase the capacity by modernisation of theexisting system, e.g. bettermaintenanceof tracks and signalling or use lighter materials in wagon design (GoI, 2010). Between 2006/07 and 2011/12,the11thFiveYearPlanexpectsfreighttransporttoincreasefrom726Mtto1100Mt,and from 469 to 702billiontkm (Raghuram and Gangwar,2008). This represents an annual increase of 8.4%. Sea transport may ease the inland transport problem, but that would require expansion of harbourcharginganddischargingcapacity.TheUMPPpolicyfavoursnewcoalplantlocationscloseto minesorportstoreducetheneedforcoaltransportation.Thisrequires,however,investmentsinthe transmissiongridtotransporttheelectricitytothedemandcentres.
12

Page|29

12 Indiancoalispricedbasedonitsgrade,whichdependsonitsheatingvalue.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

TheIEAGHGreportdoesnotquantifythepotentialinsalineaquifers.Anotheranalysisestimated the potential in saline aquifers to be around 360GtCO2 (Singh, Mendhe and Garg,2006). More work is needed to quantify the possible Indian storage potential, especially for saline aquifers, with greater certainty. In this analysis, it has been assumed that only onesixth of the saline aquifer potential is available. In that case the total storage potential from depleted oil and gas Page|30 fields,unmineablecoalseamsandsalineaquiferswouldbelimitedto65GtCO2(Figure1.11).
Figure1.11:RegionaldistributionofCO2storagepotentialsingeographicalmodelanalysis

Depletedoilandgasfields,coal seams,salineaquifers

Deccanbasaltplateaustorage potentials

3Gt 2Gt 5Gt 3Gt 20Gt

7Gt

5Gt

100Gt

100Gt 100Gt

20Gt

Notes: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebythe IEA.ThedefinitionoftheregionswithinIndiacorrespondstotheoneusedinthegeographical modelanalysis(seeAnnexB). Source:IEAanalysis.

The second category of storage sites (basalt) is much more speculative. Large areas of about 500000km2 between Mumbai and Bhopal and in Gujarat are covered by thick basalt layers. If basalt is shown to be a suitable cap rock, it is estimated that this would allow storage of 300GtCO2(Sonde,2007). Duetoavailablestoragepotentialindepletedoilandgasfields,coalpowerplantswithCCS,once proven,shouldideallybelocatedintheareasofGujarat,MumbaiorChennai.Threeofthenine sitesdesignatedsofarforUMPPprojectsareonthecoastnotfarfromthesepotentialstorage areas.13Forinlandsitesrelyingondomesticcoal,additionalcostsofUSD5/tCO2fortransporting theCO2areexpectedcomparedtocoastalsites(MottMacDonald,2008).

13 ThethreesitesareMundrainGujarat,KrishnapatnaminAndhraPradeshandCheyyurinTamilNadu.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Naturalgas
Indiaconsumed59billioncubicmeters(bcm)ofnaturalgasin2008,ofwhich46bcmwerefrom domesticproduction.Gasconsumptionhasbeenrapidlygrowingatarateof8%between1990 and2009.In2008,gasaccountedfor6%oftotalprimaryenergysupply.Ofthis,44%wasused forpowergeneration,35%inindustry,13%intheupstreamsector,6%intransportand2%inthe Page|31 buildingssector.Totalgasdemandisprojectedtoincreaseto132bcmin2030(IEA,2009e).Gas useforpowergenerationwouldincreaseatanevenfasterrate,from19bcmin2008to75bcm in2030.Theother57bcmwouldlargelygotomakingfertiliserandotherindustrialuses. Proven and indicated gas reserves were 1074bcm at 1 April 2009. Most of this, 787bcm, is locatedoffshore(MPNG,2009):intheMumbaibasinonthewestcoastandtheKGbasinhalfway between Chennai and Calcutta on the east coast. In addition to conventional gas, India has estimatedcoalbedmethane(CBM)resourcesbetweenof1.4tcmand2.6tcm,mainlyintheeast intheareaofthecoalresources.Just0.05bcmofCBMhavebeenproducedin2008/09,butitis plannedtoexpandproductionto2.7bcmby2015(Srivastava,2010). ShalegascouldbeafurthersourceforIndiasindigenousgassupply,butthepotentialshalegas reserveshavenotyetbeenassessed.TheDamodarbasininWestBengalandtheCambaybasinin Gujaratare,accordingtothestateownedOilandNaturalGasCorporationofIndia(ONGC,2010), promising formations for shale gas. In November 2010, the US and Indian governments announced that the US Geological Survey will help India to assess its shale gas reserves. India planstoauctionacreagesforshalegasexplorationin2011. MostpartsofIndiadonothaveaccesstonaturalgas.Transmissionpipelinesexistmainlyinthe northeast. The first major longdistance gas transportation pipeline is the HaziraVijaipur Jagdishpur(HVJ)linebuiltbyGAIL,whichisstateownedandthelargestIndiangastransmission company. It connects Hazira in Gujarat, the landing point of offshore South Bassein field, to demandcentresinthenorthwestincludingJagdishpurinUttarPradeshandVijaipurinMadhya Pradesh.Ithasacapacityofaround12.4bcmperyearandservesanumberoflargepowerand fertiliser plants, as well as smaller industrial units lying along its route. GAIL has recently constructed other pipelines, connecting the LNG terminal of Dahej to Vijaipur (DahejVijaipur pipeline,runningparalleltotheHVJpipeline)andtoUran(DahejUranpipeline)andthepower plant at Dabhol to Panvel (DabholPanvel pipeline). GAIL has also executed the HaziraBijaypur Jagdishpur (HBJ) trunk pipeline connecting Gujarat to Uttar Pradesh. It plans to lay further pipelinesbetweenindigenousgasfieldsandimportedLNGterminalsandvariousdemandcentres. In2008,IndiaslargestprivateownedcompanyRelianceIndustriesLimited(RIL)completedthe 1400km long eastwest pipeline (EWPL) connecting Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh to Baruch in Gujarat.EWPLconnectswithGAIL'sHVJlineandtheDahejVijaipurpipelineatAnkotinGujarat. EWPLisalsolinkedtotheDahejUran pipelineaswellastheDabholPanvel pipelinethrougha connectionpointatMashkalinMaharashtra(IEA,2010b). India has two LNG import terminals with a current combined import capacity of 18bcm. Both terminals are located on the western coast, in Dahej and Hazira. A third terminal, the Dabhol RatnagiriLNGterminalwithacapacityof7.5bcm,becameoperationalinDecember2010,after manydelays.AfourthterminalatKochionthesouthernwestcoastwithaplannedcapacityof 3.4bcmisunderconstruction.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Nuclear
Indiahasonlylimiteduraniumresourceswithatotalamountof141kt,includingundiscovered resources (socalled prognosticated and speculative resources). Discovered resources are 73kt comprising about 49kt of uranium reasonably assured and 24kt inferred additional resources. Page|32 Thediscoveredresourcesareenoughtosupplyacapacityofabout440GWofLWRsforoneyear (basedontheassumptionof17turaniumneededper1GWLWRandyear). The country does, however, have huge thorium resource potential, as mentioned above. Its estimatedthoriumresourcesof225ktmetalcorrespondtoanannualproductionof155500GWof breeder reactors (DAE,n.d.). Utilising these thorium resources for nuclear power generation requiresamorecomplexchainofnucleartechnologiesthanrequiredfortheuseofuraniumasfuel.

Renewablespotential
TherenewableenergyresourcesinthefourglobalregionsthathavebeenanalysedinETP2010 differ considerably (Table1.4). India has good hydropower resources and excellent solar resources with an average 300 sunny days per year and an average yearly irradiation of 200W/m2.Itspotentialinotherrenewablesismorelimited.
Table1.4:Renewableenergyresourcepotentials Windonshore(GW) Windoffshore(<60mwaterdepth)(GW) Windfloating(<100kmdistance,>60mwater depth)(GW) Largehydro(GW) Smallhydro(GW) Biomass(primary)(assuming50%useforPG) (GW)[Mtoe] Geothermal(GW) Ocean(TWh) OECD Europe 22877 8757 n.a. 2682778,9 10199 35 [1504] 102010 69007 United States 104591 17002 24512 413 813 50 [2004] 2605 5046 China 238011 20011 n.a. 3907 12812 50 [2004] 6 11007 India 6014 2015 n.a. 15016 1516 40 [6017] <1018 1519GW

Note:Solarisnotincludedinthistablebecausetheresourceisnotthelimitingfactorinanyoftheseregions. Sources: UnitedStates:1)NREL,2010;2)Schwartzetal.,2010;3)Halletal.,2006;inMWa,i.e.100%loadfactor;4)VTT,2007;5)Glitnir,2007; 6)ThresherandMusial,2010 Europe: 4) VTT, 2007; 7) UBA, 2009; 8) WEC, 2010; assuming average full load hours of 3200h; 9) ESHA, 2005; 10) Bertani, 2009; Eliasson,2008 China:4)VTT,2007;7)UBA,2009;11)CMA,2010;12)WangandChen,2010;16)NDRC,2007 India:14)Aroraetal.,2010;15)StudybyCWETassessingIndiasoffshorepotentialstartedin2010,resultsexpectedfor2012/13. Offshorepotentialconservativelyassumedtobe20GWinthescenarioanalysis.UBA(2009)assumes208TWh(or52GWwith4000h loadfactor).;16)MoP,2008;17)seesectiononbiomassbelow,12)MNRE,2010c;18)Holmetal.,2010;19)GEDA,2003),Paimpillil andBaba(2009).

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Hydro
India has 36GW installed hydro capacity, with additional 15GW under construction (Platts,2010).Indiashydroresourcesareamongthelargestintheworld;itranksseventhinthe world in terms of technically exploitable potential (WEC,2010). The total largescale hydro potential capacity is nearly 150GW, or 84GW at 60% load factor. In practice, the average Page|33 capacityfactorofhydropowerinIndiahasoftenbeenlower,withanaveragenationalloadfactor of 43% in 2007 because of factors including shortcomings in design of old existing hydropower plants and strong dependence on monsoon rainfalls. Nearly 90% of the total remaining hydro potentialof98GWisintheHimalayamountainregion(Figure1.12).
Figure1.12:Regionaldistributionofexistinghydropowercapacityandremainingresources(largehydro>25MW)

Notes: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebythe IEA.ThedefinitionoftheregionswithinIndiacorrespondstotheoneusedinthegeographical modelanalysis(seeAnnexB). Source:MoP,2008.

Developmentofthispotentialrequires,however,theconstructionofnewtransmissioncapacity totransporttheelectricitytothemainmarketsaroundCalcutta,DelhiandMumbai.Inthepast, newhydropowerdevelopmentprojectsalsosufferedfromseveralfactorssuchasenvironmental concerns,landacquisitionproblemsorregulatoryissues. Theadditionalpumpedhydropotentialisabouttwothirdsofthetotalhydropotential,around 100GW.Thiscapacitycanbeusedtobalancevariablerenewables. Inadditiontolargescalehydropower,Indiahasapotentialforsmallhydroplants(upto25MW perplant)of15GWdistributedover5400sites.Ofthis,2.5GWhadalreadybeentappedbythe endof2009andprojectsamountingtoaround1.9GWareinvariousstagesofimplementation (Aroraetal.,2010).

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Biomass
Indiahas16%oftheworldpopulation,whileitslandisonly2%ofthetotalgeographicalareaof theworld.Asaresult,pressureonthelandisoftenbeyonditscarryingcapacity,soproductive lands, especially farmlands, are in a constant process of degradation and are fast turning into wastelands.14Expertsestimatethataround105millionhectares(ha)ofland,almostonethirdof Page|34 Indiasgeographicarea,arebeingdegraded(Ajaietal.,2009). Inordertomapandtapthispotential,theIndiangovernmenthasdevelopedabiomassatlas, using satellite data as input for geographical information systems (NRSA, 2005). Wastelands statisticsindicatedthatabout55.3millionha,whichaccountfor16.8%ofthetotalgeographical area (328.7millionha) could be categorised as wasteland in India in 2003. About 20 million hectares of these wastelands are currently in use for agriculture, but the yields are low. About 34% is land with or without scrub. Another 20% is degraded forest, and 10% is unsuited for cropping(barrenrock,snowcover,glaciersetc.). The current assumption is that 20millionha of the wastelands (36%) are accessible and could yieldaround5tonnesofadditionalwoodybiomassperhectareperyeariftheproductivitywere restored. With an average lower heating value of 17MJ per kilogram, this corresponds to 80Mtoe(100Mt)ofenergy,whichcanbeconvertedinbiomasspowerplantswithanefficiency ofaround30%.Assumingaloadfactorof60%,thisbiomasscansustain25GWbiomasspower generationcapacity. Residual biomass from agriculture and industry is another energy source. Sugar production residues represent the single most important category. With the establishment of new sugar mills and the modernisation of existing ones, the technically feasible potential for bagasse cogeneration is estimated to be around 5GW (DOE, 2009). Another 39GW (30%efficiency, 60%load factor) can be obtained from other agricultural and plantation residues, based on a potentialforagriculturalresiduesof145Mt(Table1.6).Theprincipaltotalbiomasspotentialin Indiais,therefore,estimatedtobearound65GWto70GW. Thegovernmentsnewenvironmentpolicysetsanambitioustargetofachieving33%greencover overthegeographicalareaofIndiaby2012,from23%forestcoverin2007.Tensofmillionsof hectaresofdegradedforestlandshavebeenregeneratedandconservedbycommunitiesacross India, either on their own, or under joint forest management processes, in which villages togetherwiththestategovernmentareresponsibleforthemanagementofnearbyforestareas. Toreachthe33%forestationtargetrequiresanadditional34millionhectaresofwastelandtobe transformedintoforests.TheinvestmentrequiredtoafforestthislandisnearlyINR600million (USD13million). The afforestation target means the 33millionha of wasteland shown in Table1.5 are not availableforbioenergyproduction.Asaresulttheprimarybiomasssupply,largelyfrombiomass residues,isaround145Mt(Table1.6),whichinenergytermsequalsaround60Mtoe.

14 AlargeamountoflandinIndiaisindeeddegraded,butitisnottotallywaste.Millionsofpoorpeoplerelyonsuchlandsforfuel, fodder,wildfoodsandothersurvivalresources.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Table1.5:WastelandssuitableforenergyproductioninIndia,2003(millionha) Land Landwith without scrub scrub 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.7 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 15.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7 Degraded forest 2.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.8 Degraded Degraded forestagricultural pastures/ use grazingland 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Total 4.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.8 0.3 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.1 5.1 4.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.0 5.5 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 33.4
Page|35

AndhraPradesh ArunachalPradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana HimachalPradesh JammuandKashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala MadhyaPradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tripura TamilNadu Uttarranchal UttarPradesh WestBengal Delhi Total
Source:NRSA,2005.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Table1.6:Residualbiomassavailability State AndhraPradesh


Page|36

Area (kha) 9983 209 3460 7349 4758 154 8008 5707 788 749 1850 9684 2307 13167 18852 341 174 19 180 6668 6994 14851 58 4165 10 15951 1016 6090 143541

Cropproduction (kt/yr) 21167 251 8251 18818 6637 490 23896 15226 1504 774 2460 43140 5561 17952 64336 435 284 33 276 12263 35934 16136 69 30415 4 138945 7783 22808 495846

Biomass generation (kt/yr) 43893 400 11444 25757 11273 669 29001 29035 2897 1591 3645 34167 11644 33345 47625 909 511 61 492 20070 50848 29851 150 22508 41 60322 2903 35990 511041

Biomass surplus (kt/yr) 6956 75 2347 5147 2128 161 9086 11343 1035 280 890 9027 6352 10329 14790 114 92 9 85 3677 24843 8646 18 8900 21 13738 638 4302 145027

ArunachalPradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana HimachalPradesh JammuandKashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala MadhyaPradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim TamilNadu Tripura UttarPradesh Uttaranchal WestBengal Total
Source:MNRE,2010c.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Wind
Indias onland wind potential is estimated to amount to between 48GW and 60GW (Aroraetal.,2010).Thepotentialisrelativelymodestcomparedtotheprojectedgrowthofthe countrys electricity demand. Most of the onshore wind potential is in the south in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, which together account for 54%of Indias onshore wind Page|37 potential(Figure1.13).
Figure1.13:RegionaldistributionofIndiasonshorewindresources

Notes: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebythe IEA.ThedefinitionoftheregionswithinIndiacorrespondstotheoneusedinthegeographical modelanalysis(seeAnnexB). Source:Aroraetal.,2010.

Offshore wind potential has not yet been systematically evaluated. The National Wind Monitoring Programme, which obtains wind data from 54coastal locations, shows that the westerncoastlinehasmodestpotential.WhiletheGujaratcoastlinehasreasonablepotential,it ispronetoseverecyclones.Sofar,twolocations,atRameshwaraminTamilNaduandMundraat Gulf of Kutch, have shown reasonable potential for offshore wind power, with wind power densitiesof350W/m2to 500W/m2.Bycomparison,inEuropemostoftheoffshorewindpower projectsareatlocationswithdensitiesabove800W/m2,whichisconsiderednecessarytogivean economicreturnoninvestment.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Geothermal
Geothermal energy potential is mainly concentrated in the Himalaya region, in Jammu and KashmirandinHimachalPradesh.Otherpotentialsitesforgeothermalpowergenerationarethe Sonata basin in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh, the Cambay basin in Gujarat, the Godavari basininAndhraPradeshandtheSohanabasininRajasthan(Figure1.14).
Figure1.14:Regionaldistributionofgeothermalresources

Page|38

Himalaya

Sohana Himalaya

Cambay

Sonata

WestCoast Godavari

Mahanadi

Notes: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebythe IEA.ThedefinitionoftheregionswithinIndiacorrespondstotheoneusedinthegeographical modelanalysis(seeAnnexB). Source:Chandrasekharam,2000.

The total potential is around 10GW (Holm et al.,2010). No geothermal power plants currently operate in India; five projects with a combined capacity of 251MW are in the planning phase (BNEF,2010a).

Waveandtidalenergy
Tidal power is a form of hydropower that converts the energy of tides into electricity. A water turbineisplacedinatidalcurrentanddrivesanelectricalgeneratororagascompressor,which stores the energy until needed. Wave power systems transform the motion of the waves into

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

mechanicalenergy,whichcanbeusedtogenerateelectricity.Thesesystemscanbefloatingor fixedtotheseabedoffshore,ormaybeconstructedonasuitableshoreline. For tidal power, the identified economic potential in India is about 89GW. Sites suitable for producing tidal energy include the Gulf of Cambay (7GW approx.) and the Gulf of Kachchh (1.2GWapprox.)onthewestcoast(GEDA,2003).Thetheoreticalannualwaveenergypotential alongtheIndiancoastisabout60GW(between5MWand15MWpermetreforacoastlineof Page|39 6000km).However,therealisticandeconomicpotentialislikelytobeconsiderablyless. To date, no wave or tidal energy plant exists in India. Two tidal energy projects (50MW in Gujarat,and3.75MWinWestBengal)aswellastwowaveenergyprojects(5MWinGujarat,and 1MWinMaharashtra)areintheplanningphase(BNEF,2010a).

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Chapter 2: India energy technology strategies and developmentactivities


Indiasenergypolicies
Indiasenergysectorisadministeredandmanagedthroughacomplexmultiministerialstructure thatinvolvestheUnionMinistryofPower(MoP),theMinistryofCoal,theMinistryofPetroleum andNaturalGas(MPNG),theMinistryforNewandRenewableEnergy(MNRE),theDepartment ofAtomicEnergy(DAE)andthePlanningCommission,aswellasothergovernmentbodiesand agenciessuchastheBureauofEnergyEfficiency(BEE).TheroleoftheMinistryofEnvironment andForestsinenergypolicyhasalsoincreasedinrecentyears. ReflectingIndiasfederalgovernancestructure,eachofIndiasstatesandunionterritories(UTs) hassignificantconstitutionalrightsinthepowersector.MoststatesandUTshaveestablisheda statelevelministryordepartmentforelectricity,andsomealsohaveministriesordepartments for energy. The pace of electricity reform varies considerably among energy subsectors and acrosstheIndianstatesandUTs. The Government of India and its agencies and institutes have recently developed a number of plansandstrategiesinvolvingpowersectortechnology.
Page|41

IntegratedEnergyPolicy
In2006,theGovernmentofIndiareleaseditsfirstIntegratedEnergyPolicy(IEP)(GoI,2006).The broad vision behind the IEP is to meet reliably the demand for energy services with safe and convenient energy at the least cost in a technically efficient, economically viable and environmentally sustainable manner. All sectors are included; the lifeline energy needs of vulnerable households are a particular concern. More specifically, the document sets out strategiesinfourkeyareas:coal,efficiency,renewablesandplanningcapacity.

Coal
Coal is expected to remain the dominant energy source for India until 2031/32, and possibly beyond. Key strands of the strategy include: developing in situ gasification to tap those coal resourcesdifficulttominethroughconventionaltechnology;increasingcoalproductionthrough competition and coal import facilities to be built along the western and southern coasts; coal washing should become the norm; and increasingly, coal should be auctioned on the Internet. Environmentalfactorsshouldbetreatedconsistentlyandincludedintocoalcostings.

Efficiency
Indias energy intensity should be reduced by up to 25% from current levels, and the average grossefficiencyofpowergenerationshouldberaisedfrom30.5%in2006to34%.Allnewplants shouldadopttechnologiesthatimprovetheirgrossefficiencyfromtheprevailing36%in2006to atleast38%to40%.Aggregatetechnicalandcommerciallossesshouldbereduced,withtheaid of automated meter reading, geographic information systems (GIS), and separation of feeders andagriculturalpumps.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Renewables
The IEP suggests policies for promoting specific renewable energy sources, including fuel wood plantations,biogasplants,woodgasifierbasedpowerplants,solarwaterheaters,solarPVplants, CSPplants,biodiesel,andethanol.Thepolicystatesincentivesforrenewablesshouldbelinked Page|42 to the energy generated and not just the installed capacity. Supply options on a village level, especially for remote settlements, include electricity from minihydro plants and wood gasification.Inruralareas,communitybiogasplantscouldprovideenergyforcookingandwater heating.Surplusgasmaybeusedforelectricitygeneration.

Planningcapacity
Indianeedstoincreasegreatlyresourcesforenergyrelatedresearchanddevelopment(R&D)and toallocatethesestrategically.Capabilitiesinenergypolicymodellingshouldbeimprovedandthe modellers should be brought together periodically in a forum to address specific policy issues. Internationalcollaborationonresearch,development,demonstrationanddeploymentisrequired.

Climatechangeinitiatives
In July 2008, the Indian government released its first National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) (GoI, 2008a). The plan stresses the need to maintain high economic growth while effectivelyaddressingclimatechange.Itsummarisesexistingandfuturepoliciesandprogrammes thataddressclimatechangeandadaptation.TheNAPCCdefineseightcorenationalmissionsfor the development and use of new technologies (Box 3). Two of these, the National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE) and the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, focus specificallyonthe energysector.The NAPCCalsoproposesthatnationally5%oftheelectricity purchasedshouldbefromrenewablesourcesin2009/10.Thisshareshouldincreaseby1%per yearforthenexttenyears. InJuly2010,Indiaintroducedacarbontaxoncoal,attherateofINR50/t(USD1.07/t),whichwill applytobothdomesticandimportedcoal.Forcoalusedinpowergeneration,thistaxrepresents a price increase in the order of 5% to 10% based on runofmine prices in October 2010, dependingonthecoalquality.TheincomefromthetaxgoesintoaNationalCleanEnergyFund forfundingresearch,innovativeprojectsincleanenergytechnologies,andprogrammestorepair environmental damage. Earnings from this tax for 2010/11 are estimated to be around INR22.5billion(USD500million). WithintheCopenhagenAccord,IndiahaspledgedtoreducetheemissionintensityofitsGDPby 20%to25%by2020relativeto2005levels.Thepledgeisvoluntary.AsIndiaspledgerefersto articlesintheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)relatedtothe provision of financial resources and technology transfer from developed countries, it is unclear whetherIndiaregardsthistechnologycooperationasapreconditionforpursuingitsreduction efforts.Thepledgeexplicitlyexcludesemissionsfromagriculture,butitisalsonotclearwhether thetargetreferstoCO2orGHGemissions.IfitistakentorefertoenergyrelatedCO2emissions excludingagriculture,thetargetwouldbeachievedwithinthelessambitiousETP2010Baseline Scenario,inwhichIndiasCO2intensitywouldfallby30%comparedto2005levels(IEA,2010a.).

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Box3:NationalmissionswithintheNationalActionPlanonClimateChange TheNationalSolarMission(approvedunderNAPCC)formulatesthefollowingdeploymenttargetsfor 2022:20GWofgridconnectedsolarpower,2GWofoffgridsolarapplications,20millionm2ofsolar water collectors, and 20million solar lighting systems. A further objective is to strengthen Indias manufacturingcapabilityforPVmodules,toreach4GWto5GWby2020.Inaddition,amajorR&D programmeshouldbelaunchedtoimprovetheefficiencyofexistingapplications,reducingthecosts forthebalanceofsystem(costsforrequiredequipmentinadditiontothePVmodule)andaddressing suchissuesasthevariabilityindailyinsolationandlandrequirementforsolarenergy. TheNationalMissionforEnhancedEnergyEfficiency(approved)isbasedonfournewinitiativesto enhanceenergyefficiency,inadditiontoalreadyexistingprogrammes.Amarketbasedmechanismis neededtoenhancecosteffectivenessofimprovementsinenergyefficiencyinenergyintensivelarge industries and facilities, through certification of energy savings that could be traded. The shift to energyefficientappliancesindesignatedsectorsshouldbeacceleratedthroughinnovativemeasures to make the products more affordable. Mechanisms should be created that would help finance demand side management programmes in all sectors by capturing future energy savings. Fiscal instrumentsneedtobedevelopedtopromoteenergyefficiency. The National Mission on Sustainable Habitat (approved) aims to make cities sustainable through improvements in energy efficiency in buildings, management of solid waste and increasing use of public transport. The existing energy conservation building code will be extended. Recycling of materialandurbanwastemanagementshouldbeimproved,withaspecialfocusondevelopmentof technology to produce power from waste. There is also a provision for a major R&D programme focusingonbiochemicalwasteconversion,wastewateruse,sewageutilisationandrecyclingoptions whereverpossible. The National Water Mission (approved) aims to ensure integrated water resource management to conserve water, minimise wastage and ensure more equitable distribution both across and within states.ThemissionwilltakeintoaccounttheprovisionsoftheNationalWaterPolicyanddevelopa framework to optimise water use by increasing water use efficiency by 20% through regulatory mechanismswithdifferentialentitlementsandpricing. TheNationalMissionforSustainingtheHimalayaEcosystem(inpreparation)hastheobjectivesto understandthecomplexprocessesaffectingtheHimalayanglacierandmountainecosystemandto developsuitablemanagementandpolicymeasuresforsustainingandsafeguardingit. ThefirstdraftoftheNationalMissionforGreenIndia(inpreparation)wasreleasedinOctober2010. The identified goals are to use mitigation and adoption measures to enhance carbon sinks and to improve the adaptation capability of vulnerable species/ecosystems and forestdependent communities. Concrete objectives are: an increase in forest/tree cover of 5millionha; improved quality of forest cover; improved provision of ecosystems services (e.g. biodiversity, hydrological services)bytreatmentof10millionha;increasedforestbasedlivelihoodincomeforabout3million households living in and around the forests; and annual CO2 sequestration increased by 50Mt to 60Mtbytheyear2020. The National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (in preparation) aims to support adaptation to climate change in agriculture, through the development of climateresilient crops and adapted agriculturalpractices.Italsoaimstosupportexpansionofweatherinsurancemechanisms. The National Mission on Strategic Knowledge of Climate Change (in preparation) calls for the establishment of a climate science research fund, improved climate modelling capacities and increasedinternationalcollaboration.Italsoseekstoencourageprivatesectorinitiativestodevelop bothmitigationandadaptationtechnologiesthroughventurecapitalfunds.

Page|43

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Powersectorreforms
Liberalisation of Indias power sector began in 1991 by opening it for foreign and private investmentsingeneration.Thetargetofattractingprivateinvestorswas,however,notachieved, since private investors had to rely on stateowned, integrated utilities (state electricity boards, Page|44 SEBs) for transmitting and distributing their electricity. The poor financial health of the SEBs discouragedprivatecompaniesfromenteringthepowersector. TheElectricityAct2003(GoI,2003),whichreplacedearlierlegislationrelatedtothepowersector in India, provides an enabling framework for development of the sector. The Act introduced reforms related to: the unbundling of the SEBs, open access to transmission and distribution networks,introducingcompetitioningeneration,facilitatingelectricitytrading,andindependent tariff settings and regulation. The Act also mandates each state to establish state electricity regulatory commissions (SERCs). While on a national level the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission(CERC)coversmuchoftheregulationongenerationandinterstatetransmission,the SERCshaveexclusivejurisdictiononelectricitydistribution.Beforethe2003reformstheCentral ElectricityAuthority(CEA)wasresponsibleforlicensingpowerplantsontechnicalandeconomic aspects.Thisrolechanged:itbecameanadvisorybodyforthegovernmentonmattersrelatedto national electricity policy and technical matters, as well as specifying technical and safety standardsforpowerplantsandtransmissiongrids. Furthermore, the Act requires the central government to develop every five years, in consultation withstategovernmentsandtheCentralElectricity Authority,a NationalElectricity Policy (NEP, notified in 2005) and a National Tariff Policy (NTP, notified in 2006). The NEP sets guidelinesforaccelerateddevelopmentofthepowersector,supplyingelectricitytoallareasand protecting the interests of consumers and other stakeholders. The NTP provides general and uniformparameterstotheSERCsforformulatingregulationsandfixingtariffs,ensuringadequate returnsandreasonableusercharges. TheNTP2006askseachstatetointroducerenewablepurchaseobligations(RPOs),whichrequire aminimumshareofrenewableelectricitybeingboughtbydistributioncompanies.TheSERCsare responsible for specifying the renewable percentages in their states. Renewable generators receiveahighertariffforelectricitysoldtothedistributioncompanies.Thetariffsarebeingsetby theSERCsfollowingguidelinesfromtheCERC.Sofar,21stateshaveintroducedrenewablequotas between1%and14%for2010/11(MNRE,2010b).RPOscanbetechnologyspecificortechnology independent. For example, Gujarat distinguishes three categories: solar, wind and other renewables.FailureofthedistributioncompaniesinmeetingtheRPOtargetsis,however,rarely penalised.Onlythreestateshaveintroducedpenalties.Onlyfourstatesmettheirtargetforthe 2009/10.MoststateshavespecifiedRPOstargetsonlyupto2012.Uncertaintiesaboutconditions beyondtheendofthe11thFiveYearPlanmaylimitinvestmentsinrenewabletechnologies. The authorities in India introduced renewable electricity certificates (RECs) in November 2010, aimingtoensurethatrenewablecapacityisaddedattheleastcost.TheRECs,eithersolarornon solar,aretradableacrossstates,andsogivedistributioncompaniestheopportunitytofulfiltheir RPOsfromrenewablesourcesoutsideoftheirstates.Generationcompanieshavethreeoptions forsellingtheirrenewableelectricity:sellingittothedistributioncompanyatthetarifffixedby the SERC, asbefore the introduction of the RECs; selling the RECs at power exchanges and the electricity to the distribution company separately; or selling both electricity and RECs at the power exchanges. The impact of the REC mechanism on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)registrationforrenewableelectricityprojectisunclear:attimeofwritingneitherCERCnor theUNFCCCexecutiveboardhadtakenaview.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Aruralelectrificationpolicy(REP),establishedin2006underprovisionsintheElectricityAct,sets out ambitious proposals to provide reliable electricity at reasonable rates to all households by 2012.RuralelectrificationisprimarilytheresponsibilityofeachstateandUTgovernment.Thisis supported by central government policy funding, provided through various financing schemes administeredbytheRuralElectrificationCorporationundertheMinistryofPower.
Page|45

EleventhFiveYearPlan
Shorterterm energy policy is mainly driven by Indias fiveyear plans, prepared by the Planning Commission.Thefiveyearplansaredevelopedfromthebottomup,witheachministryprojecting itsmaindevelopmentneedsandproposinghowbesttoachievethem.ThePlanningCommission isthentaskedwithensuringthattheindividualplansresultinacoordinatedapproachtomeet thegovernmentsdevelopmentandeconomicpolicies.Currently,the11thFiveYearPlan(2007 12)isbeingimplemented.Likeitspredecessors,itispredominantlysupplyorientedandreflects thecompetingrequirementsofthediverseministerialstructureforenergypolicy. For the power sector, the 11thFiveYear Plan originally aimed for the addition of 78.7GW of capacity of large hydro, thermal and nuclear power plants. However, its midterm appraisal reportestimatesalikelycapacityadditionofonly62.3GW,meaningthatthetargetwillnotbe fully achieved (GoI,2010; Table2.1). Similarly, the anticipated capacity of 11.8GW from renewable electricity sources (wind, small hydro, biomass, waste and solar) will not meet the originaltargetof14GW.
Table2.1:Originalandlikelynewcapacityadditionsforutilitiesinthe11thFiveYearPlan MW Fueltype Largehydro Thermal Nuclear Wind Smallhydro Biomass Waste Solar Total
Sources:GoI,2010;MNRE,2007.

Capacityatthebeginning oftheplanon31March,2007 34654 86015 3900 7094 1976 525 1142 3 135309

Newadditions Originaltarget Likelyachievement 15627 59963 3380 10500 1400 1700 400 92970 8237 50757 3380 9000 1000 1700 20 90 74184

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Indiascurrentandplannedtechnologydevelopmentactivities
Indias Integrated Energy Policy (IEP, see section above) examines several scenarios for future developmentoftheIndianenergysector.Itdoesnothoweverpresentscenariosaimingfordeep CO2 reductions. The policy envisages CO2 emissions for India in 2031/32 to be between Page|46 5.5GtCO2and3.9GtCO2, compared to 1.34Gt in 2007, while the BLUE Map Scenario in ETP2010 (IEA,2010a) limits the CO2emission increase to 2.2Gt in 2030. Based on an average annualGDPgrowthreportof8%to9%between2006/07and2031/32,electricitygenerationin 2031/32 is estimated at between 3628TWh and 4493TWh. These figures correspond to installedcapacitiesof778GWand960GW. Thedevelopmentoftheelectricitygenerationmixforonescenarioisdiscussedinmoredetailin IEP (Figure2.1). This scenario would require the exploitation of the full hydro potential of 150GW,theadditionof63GWofnuclearcapacityby2031/32.
Figure2.1:PossiblescenarioforelectricitygenerationmixinIndiasIntegratedEnergyPolicy

TWh

4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2006/07 2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32 Hydro Thermalfuels9%GDPgrowth Thermalfuels8%GDPgrowth Otherrenewables Nuclear

Source:GoI,2006.

Coalpowertechnologies
Coal power generation in India is still based entirely on subcritical technology. Coal plants are concentratedinregionsclosetothecoalmines(suchasinUttarPradeshandWestBengal),and in more distant regions with high electricity demand (such as in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh)(Figure2.2). Indiaisworkingonsupercriticalcoalfiredpowerplants(660MWto800MWunits):37unitsat elevenpowerplantsitesareunderconstructionin2010,correspondingtoacapacityofaround 26GW(Platts,2010).

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Figure2.2:RegionaldistributionofexistingcoalcapacityinIndiaandplannedUMPPs

Page|47

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebytheIEA. Sources:Platts,2010;IEAanalysis.

These units operate at conditions of 247bar, mainstream temperature 565C and hot reheat temperature of 593C. They achieve 40%grossefficiency (higherheating value based). There is an unavoidable loss of about 1.2percentage points compared to similar plants in the UnitedStatesorEurope,duetoIndianclimateconditionsandcoalquality(Gupta,2008). Supercritical technology is mandatory for the socalled ultramega power projects (UMPP), a series of power projects planned by the Government of India to reduce power shortages. The minimum capacity for a UMPP is 4GW. The projects are awarded to developers through competitivebidding.Sofar,fourofthe14plannedUMPPshavebeenawarded.Overall,the12th FiveYearPlan(2012/17)aimsforatleasthalfofallnewcoalpowerplantsbuildtobesupercritical. Forthe13thFiveYearPlan,allnewcoalplantsshouldbesupercritical(Mathur,2010). Aroundhalfoftherunningcoalpowerplantsin2009weremorethan20yearsold.Theseplants oftenoperateatlowloadfactorsandwithanefficiencyofonly30%(netefficiency,HHV).While forunitsbuiltbeforethe1980s(ca.13GW)rehabilitationandmodernisationisoftennotacost effectiveoptionduetotheirage,retrofittingyoungerplantsbuildinthe1980scanimprovetheir operational efficiency and provide additional power capacity at moderate costs and in shorter time spans than building new units. The 11th FiveYear Plan aims for renovation and modernisationof26GWofcoalplants,ofwhich7GWwillalsoundergolifeextensionmeasures. The 12th FiveYear Plan proposes that 17GW of existing coal plants will be modernised. In addition,1.1GWofoldandinefficientcoalfiredplantshavealreadybeenretiredearly,anditis planned to retire 4GW each in the 12th and 13th FiveYear Plans (Mathur, 2010). A national enhanced efficiency renovation and modernisation programme is also planned, to encourage efficiencyimprovementmeasures.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

BharatHeavyElectricalsLtd.(BHEL),anIndiancompanyestablishedbythegovernment,supplies most of the coalfired power generation equipment in India. The company has a 65% market shareinIndia,while10to15%ofitsproductionisaimedforexport. Market barriers for foreign power equipment manufacturers have been gradually reduced, so jointventuresofIndianandforeigncompaniesarenowbiddingforstateandprivateprojects.In Page|48 2007,MitsubishiHeavyIndustries(MHI)startedajointventurewithLarsen&ToubroLtd.(oneof thelargestprivatecompaniesinIndia)toformtheseconddomesticmanufacturerofsupercritical boilersinIndia.Bymid2010,L&T/MHIhadsecuredcontractstotalling6.5GWofcapacity. Ultrasupercriticalcoaltechnologyisunderdevelopment.InSeptember2010,theIndiraGandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR) announced the development of an advanced ultra supercritical boilerwithsteamcapacityof350barand700Cforan800MW coalpowerplant. ThiswillbeundertakenincooperationwithBHELandtheNationalThermalPowerCorporation (NTPC),thelargestandstateownedpowerutilityinIndia.Constructionoftheplantshouldstart by2018(Jagannathan,2010).
Box4:AfutureforultracleancoalinIndia? ThehighashcontentofIndiancoalposesmanyproblems.ResearchinIndia,AustraliaandJapanis aimingforashremovalusingachemicalleachingprocess.Theproductisanultracleancoalwithless than0.2%ashcontent,whichcanbeburneddirectlyinagasturbine.Thisallowstheuseofcombined cycles and results in a major efficiency gain. Compared to IGCC, in which gasification and turbine combustionaredirectlylinked,ultracleancoalisstillasolidenergycarrierthatcanbeproducedand storedclosetothemines(Nunes,2009). UltraCleanCoal(UCC)EnergyhasconstructedapilotplantinNewSouthWales,Australia,whichis capable of processing 350kg per hour of coal. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Japan successfully tested the use of this coal with an ash content of less than 0.2% in gas turbines (SKM,2009). This impuritylevelshouldnotcausemajorproblemsinthegasturbine. However, this process is not yet proven on a commercial scale, and it is unclear whether it is economically viable. Initial estimates suggest that the fuel cost in Australia would be rather high, ASD0.05toASD0.08perkWh,comparedtoASD0.02perkWhforregularhardcoal.Costmaycome down as the technology develops. The extreme high ash content of Indian coal could constitute a barrierfortheuseofthistechnology,althoughresearchersfromTataSteelclaimedinarecentpatent application that they have developed a process capable of handling the highash content of Indian coal(WIPO,2010).

By comparison with pulverised coal systems, fluidisedbed boilers allow combustion of larger piecesofcoal.Advantagesoffluidisedbedcombustion(FBC)are:thepossibilityofusingawide rangeoffuels,includinglowqualitycoals,wasteandbiomassfeedstocks;theremovalofsulphur in the combustion zone by adding limestone; and reduced NOx emissions due to lower temperaturesinthecombustionzone. Twotypesoffluidisedbedboilers,bubblingandcirculating,arecommerciallyused.Pressurised fluidisedbedcombustion(PFBC)hasbeendemonstratedinanumberofcountries,butoperating problems have prevented it being promoted commercially. Bubbling FBC is used mainly for biomassandwastefuelsinsmallerunits,whereascirculatingfluidisedbedcombustion(CFBC)is the only FBC variant currently being used in plants larger than 100MW. In India, the first two lignitefiring CFBC units (125MW each) were commissioned in 2000 based on German technologylicensedbyBHEL(ChikkaturandSagar,2007).In2010,CFBCplantswithacapacityof around2500MWwereinoperationand2400MWunderconstruction.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

A 6.4MW IGCC pilot unit has been operating by BHEL since 1989, based on Siemens and Alstom technology.Constructionofa200MWIGCCdemonstrationplantinVijayawadainAndhrawasbegun in summer 2010 by a consortium of BHEL, Andhra Pradesh Power Generation Corporation Limited (APGENCO)andtheDepartmentofScience.TheIndianhighashcoalrequirestheuseoffluidisedbed gasifiers,whichisadifferenttypetothewellestablishedentrainedflowgasifierusedforlowashcoals. Carboncaptureandstoragetechnologyincoalfiredgenerationisrathercontroversialasthereare Page|49 in general no other benefits apart from CO2 reduction, so the technology is considered less suitable for India in the short term. From a technical viewpoint, there are three options for capturingCO2incoalbasedpowergeneration:precombustioncapturebyseparatingthecarbon fromfuelbeforeburningitinanIGCCplant;postcombustioncapturebycapturingtheCO2from thefluegasofthecoalplant;andoxyfuellingbyburningthefossilfuelinanoxygenatmosphere, resultinginfluegaswithahighCO2concentration.ForIndia,postcombustionCO2captureoroxy fuellingseemsmoresuitable,sincetheywouldallowtheuseofbothdomesticandimportedcoal.

Naturalgaspowertechnologies
Atotalof18.9GWofgasfuelledpowerplantswasinstalledinIndiain2007/08.Mostofthegas plants are combinedcycle power plants (15GW), which have a higher efficiency compared to simplegasturbineunits.Theaveragenetefficiencyofgasfiredpowergenerationwas41.9%.A majorpartofthecapacity(16GW)hasbeenaddedoverthelasttwodecades,closelylinkedto thedevelopmentofgasproductionandinfrastructure(Platts,2010).Gasplantsarelocatedclose tothegasproductionareasontheeastcoast,inAndhraPradesh,andGujaratandMaharashtra on the west coast, where the LNG import terminals are located, as well as in Assam in the northeast. Almost one third of the Indian gasfired capacity is located in Gujarat. Early development of the gas infrastructure in this state favoured the uptake gas use in power generation, especially for captive plants in industry. Due to the gas pipeline from Gujarat, gas plantshavealsobeenbuiltneartheinlanddemandcentresinUttarPradeshandDelhi(Figure2.3). The 11thFiveYear Plan foresees the addition of 7313MW of gasbased capacity, of which 2984MWwascommissionedbytheendofJune2009.Thecapacityadditionforthe12thFiveYear Planwilldependontheavailabilityofgas,whichisalsousedforfertiliserandtransportation.The natural gas production in the KrishnaGodavari Basin (KG Basin) could in principle boost gas based generation, especially to cover demand in the south. But under the governments gas allocationpolicy,newpowerprojectswouldgetlowerprioritythanindustryandtransport.Thus, plannersarebeingcautiousaboutincreasingthecapacitiesofgasbasedgeneration.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Figure2.3:RegionaldistributionofexistinggascapacityinIndia

Page|50

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebytheIEA. Sources:Platts,2010;IEAanalysis.

Nucleartechnology
Indiahas17pressurisedheavywaterreactors(PHWRs)andtwoboilingwaterreactors(BWRs)in operation(Figure2.4).ThetwoBWRscommissionedin1969werethefirstnuclearpowerplants in Asia. The total installed capacity of nuclear power plants stands at 4.540GW, which contributesabout3%oftotalinstalledpowercapacity.Another2.720GWisunderconstruction, andcontractswithRussiahavebeensignedforfourLWRsof1GWeach(Ramesh,2009).In2007 to 2008, the total electricity generated from nuclear sources was 16.9TWh. Indias nuclear reactorsareoperatingatjust45%to55%ofcapacity,duetoashortageofuranium. However, India has abundant thorium resources that can be used and the national nuclear energy programme aims to achieve selfreliance by exploiting these resources. A threestage strategybasedonaclosednuclearfuelcyclehasbeendeveloped.Thefirststageofthisstrategy uses PHWRs fuelled by natural uranium to produce plutonium. The plutonium is used in the secondstageinfastbreederreactors(FBR)toconvertthoriumanduraniuminfissilematerial.In thethirdstage;thefissileuraniumandplutoniumproducedinthefastbreederreactorsareused together with thorium in advanced heavy water reactors (AHWR), which would get about two thirds of their fuel input from thorium. India has successfully mastered the first stage, with 17 PHWRs operating. A fast breeder test reactor has been operating since 1985 and a 500MW prototype fast breeder reactor is under construction. Plans for building a 300MW advanced heavywaterreactorforthethirdstagehavebeenannounced,butnositehasyetbeenchosen.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Figure2.4:ExistingandplannednuclearcapacityinIndia

Page|51

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebytheIEA. Sources:Platts,2010;IEAanalysis.

ThenuclearcooperationagreementsignedwiththeUnitedStatesin2005putanendtomorethan threedecadesofIndianisolationfromtradeinnuclearmaterialandtechnology.Anewsafeguard agreement was adopted in 2008, putting most of Indias reactors under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In the same year a consensus with the Nuclear Suppliers Group has been reached, exempting India from its rule of prohibiting trade with non members of the NonProliferation Treaty (Zaleski and Cruciani, 2009). These developments have givenaconsiderableboosttothenuclearpowerprospectsforIndiaandhaveresultedinsomeshift inemphasisfromdevelopingtheuseofthoriumtoimporteduranium,atleastforthenearfuture. Aspartofthe11thFiveYearPlan,theNuclearPowerCorporationofIndiaLtd(NPCIL)announced in 2008 that it will start site work for 12 indigenously developed reactors, comprising eight 700MWPHWRs, three 500MW FBRs and one 300MW AHWR. NPCILs plan also includes constructionof25to30LWRsof1GWand1.65GWby2030.Agreementsexisttobuildupto10 RussianVVER1200modelLWRsinadditiontothetwounderconstruction,sixby2017andfour after2017.Inaddition,thereareplanstoimport LWRtechnologyfromotherreactorsuppliers (ArevasEPR,GEHitachisABWR,WestinghousesAP1000andKEPCOsAPR1400)(WNA,2010a). IndiaplanstobuildanewfacilitytoreprocessspentfuelfromtheLWRs.Therecycleduraniumcan be used in the LWRs, while the produced plutonium can be used in the Indiandesign FBRs. The target is to increase nuclear power capacity to 63GW in 2030. Most of these reactors will be locatedalongthecoast,becauseofcoolingwaterrequirements(Kanwarpal,2009).Basedonthese planstheIEAprojectsapotentialcapacityofupto120GWin2050intheBLUEMapScenario.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

The Indian government has more optimistic projections for nuclear power with potentially 470GWinstalledin2050,basedonthethreestagestrategyusingthorium(IAEA,2010).Indiahas anongoingprogrammeofbuilding220MWPHWRs,areactorsystemthatiscompetitiveinterms ofcapitalcosts,safetyperformanceandunitenergycost.Thissystemiswellsuitedtotheneeds of countries with small electricity grids, especially those in the developing world. India has Page|52 reachedworldleadershipinthisarea.Nearly55%ofallscientificpublicationsonPHWRsin2006 wereIndian,andIndiaisleadingtheresearchinFBRs(Kakodkar,2008). Indian PHWRs are about 15%to30% cheaper than those elsewhere (INR76500/kW, USD1700/kW). Future PFBRs are estimated to cost nearly INR70000/kW or around USD1250/kW (Kakodkar, 2008). Based on experience with the imported LWR types under construction or planned, India may also decide to develop its own LWR type, with the longer term opportunity to export this technology to other countries. Indeed, for the Russian LWRs currentlyunderconstruction,mostoftheworkhasbeenundertakenbyIndianstaff.

Renewabletechnologies
RenewablegridconnectedcapacityinIndiaalmostquintupledfrom3.5GWin2002to16.8GW inMarch2010.15Withacapacityadditionof10.1GW,windhasbeenthemainfactorbehindthis growth. Government incentives on a central and state level largely through capital subsidies, tax incentives, feedin tariffs and RPOs has been pushing the deployment of renewable technologiesinrecentyears.Renewablecapacitywillreach72.4GWby2022,accordingtoMNRE forecasts,ofwhich38.5GWwillbefromwind,20GWfromsolarpower,7.3GWfrombiomass and 6.6GW from small hydro. This would correspond to an estimated renewable share in electricity generation of 6.4% in 2022, compared to 4% in 2010. The NAPCC suggests more ambitioustargets,witharenewableshareof10%by2015and15%by2020.

Hydro
India has an installed hydro capacity of 36GW, distributed over 256 projects with 761dams in operation. Existing hydropower capacity is concentrated in the north of India in the Himalaya region(Figure2.5). In the past, hydropower development has been slow because of factors such as the dearth of adequatelyinvestigatedsites,environmentalconcerns,landacquisitionproblems,regulatoryissues, long clearance and approval procedures, power evacuation problems, and the dearth of good contractors.Only55%oftheplannedcapacityof14GWunderthe10thFiveYearPlanwasachieved. Most of the factors delaying the development of hydro projects have now been addressed throughlegislativeandpolicyinitiatives(RamanathanandAbeygunawardena,2007).Programme feasibility reports and costings of 162 new projects with an aggregate capacity of 48GW were preparedunderthe50GWInitiativeinMay2003.Ofthese,77schemeswithanindicativetariff below INR2.5/kWh (USD0.05/kWh), amounting to 33.9GW, were selected for detailed project reportsandsubsequentimplementation. Typical specific investment costs for projects completed between 2000 and 2008 were USD1450/kW (INR70000/kW), with a wide range of USD540/kW (INR26000/kW) to USD3700/kW(INR179000/kW)(Lakoetal.,2003).
15 Excludinghydroplantswithacapacitylargerthan25MW.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Figure2.5:ExistingandplannednuclearcapacityinIndia

Page|53

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebytheIEA. Sources:Platts,2010;IEAanalysis.

Resistancebylocalpopulations,whoareoftenfundamentallyaffectedbyhydroprojectsthrough farming land being submerged or even people having to be resettled, is a further factor hamperingthedevelopmentofhydropowerinIndia.In2009,NTPCannouncedthattheywould provideassurancecoverfortheaffectedvillageagainstanymishapfromoneoftheirhydropower projects in Uttarakhand state (Electrical Monitor, 2009). If proven successful, such approaches may help to gain local peoples confidence. In addition, the ecological impacts of hydropower projectsmustbeanalysedcarefullytakingintoaccountthebenefitsandimpactsofahydropower projectoveritsfulllifecycle. Inadditiontobuildingnewhydropowerplants,theIndiangovernmenthasputemphasisonthe renovation, modernisation and uprating (RM&U) of existing hydro plants. The costs of RM&UperMW gained are estimated to be about 20% of the costs for a new hydropower unit (MoP,2008). The shorter time period for RM&U works, of typically 1 to 3 years, is a further advantage compared to the construction period of 5 to 6 years for a new hydro plant. In the 11thFiveYearplan,itisplannedtogainanadditionalcapacityof1936MWthroughRM&Uof43 hydroprojectsatatotalcostofINR8459million(USD195million).

Biomass
The existing biomassfired power capacity in India of 2666MW falls broadly into three categories: gridconnected largescale plants using combustion or gasification technology (931MW), offgrid or distributed power plants largely based on gasification (401MW) and combined heat and power (CHP) plants (1334MW). The CHP plants are mostly industrial installations,theoverwhelmingmajoritybeingfoundinthesugarindustryandfiredbybagasse(a fibrousresiduefromsugarcanestalks).

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

India has several decades of experience in smallscale, domestically developed biomass gasifier systemsformechanical,thermalandelectricalpurposes.Researcheffortsfordistributedbiomass powergenerationstartedinthe1980swiththesettingupoffivegasifierresearchactioncentres. Research in these centres led to the development and commercialisation of downdraft, atmosphericgasifiertechnology,whichisavariantofafixedbedgasifier.Thedowndraftgasifier Page|54 isavailablefromseveralcommercialmanufacturersinIndiaforcapacitiesupto500kW.By2003, more than 1800gasifiers with a combined capacity of 75MW were installed in India (Buragohain,MahantaandMoholkar,2010).
Figure2.6:ExistingbiomasscapacityinIndia

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebytheIEA. Sources:BNEF,2010a;IEAanalysis.

Wind
In2009,Indiahadthefifthlargestinstalledwindcapacityglobally,behindonlytheUnitedStates, China,GermanyandSpain.ThetotalinstalledwindpowercapacityinIndiaamountedto11.8GW in March 2010, about 7% of the total installed generation capacity. Most of the capacity is installed in the state Tamil Nadu (42%), followed by Maharashtra (20%), Gujarat (16%) and Karnataka(13%)(MNRE,2010a)(Figure2.7). The poor state of the power transmission infrastructure is one of the barriers to wind power development. In Tamil Nadu, wind farms are often shut down in peak season because grid capacityistoolowtotransportthepower. Despite the high installed capacity, the actual utilisation of wind power in India is low because policyincentives(taxdepreciationbenefits)aregearedtowardsinstallationratherthanoperation oftheplants.Onaverage,acrossthecountry,theplantloadfactorofwindenergyhasincreased marginallyfrom13.5%in2003to17%in2007.ButinstatessuchasGujaratandAndhraPradesh,

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

windenergyisfunctioningataplantloadfactoroflessthan10%.Bycomparison,averageannual load factors in 2007 were 23.9% in the United States, 21.2% in Spain and 20.4% in Germany. Chinas load factor was 16.6% in 2007. As in India, the performance of Chinese wind plants sufferedfromthelackofadequategridconnection.
Figure2.7:ExistingwindcapacityinIndia
Page|55

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebytheIEA. Sources:BNEF,2010a;IEAanalysis.

The National Tariff Policy 2006 introduced renewable purchase obligations at state level accompanied by statelevel incentives (varying between INR3.55/kWh to 5.33/kWh or USD0.08/kWh to 0.12/kWh; CERC, 2010a), which should lead to higher load factors of wind projectsinthefuture.Theintroductionofgenerationbasedincentivesforgridconnectedwind plants in 2009 by the central government (INR0.5/kWh or USD0.01/kWh) (MNRE, 2009b) may also help. However, the very low level of the central government incentive and the lack of enforcementofrenewableobligationsmaylimittheimpactofthesemeasures. Because of lower labour and production costs, wind power equipment costs in India are lower than in other countries. In the first half of 2010, the average installed cost for a wind power project in India was INR53700/kW (USD1105/kW) (CERC, 2010a). The current annual production capacity of wind turbines manufactured in India is about 3000MW to 3500MW, including turbines for the domestic as well as for export markets (GWEC, 2009). Major wind turbine manufacturers in India are Suzlon, Enercon, RRB Energy and Vestas; together they account for more than 85% of the new capacity added in India between 2009 and 2010 (WPI, 2010). Indigenously produced wind turbines and turbine blades have been exported to the United States, Europe, Australia, China and Brazil. The size of wind turbines produced in India rangesfrom250kWto2000kW(CWET,2010).

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

SolarPVandCSP
Indiaannouncedinitssolarmissionatargetofgenerating22GW(20GWgridconnected,2GW offgrid)ofelectricityfromsolarenergyby2022(MNRE,2009a).
Page|56

Solarcapacityisstillverysmallcomparedtoothercountries.Indiahad10.2MWgridconnected photovoltaicsystemsand2.5MWstandalonesystemsinMarch2010(Mercados,2010).Ontop ofthattherewereabout592000solarstreetandhomelightingsystems,and7300agricultural pumpsdrivenbyPV.SomeestimatesaremodestintermsofPVgrowth,toaround100MWin 2022(Bannerjee,2008).Othersaremoreambitiousandprojectapotentialfor1.8GWsolarPVin thenextfivetosixyears(ISA,2008).Indiassolarmissionisstructuredinthreephases:thefirst aimingforadeploymentof1GWofgridconnectedsolarby2013,thesecond4GWby2017and thefinalonetoreach20GWby2022. ThankstoamajorinitiativebyIndiraGandhi,asolarPVR&DprogrammewasstartedbyCentral Electronics, Ltd. (CEL), as early as 1976. In 2010, India had a solar cell production capacity of 490MWper year,fromninemanufacturers.Theaggregateannualmoduleproduction capacity rosefromlessthan60MWin2005tomorethan1.27GWin2010with15assemblershavingan annualproductioncapacitylargerthan30MW(BNEF,2010b).Indiancompaniesdonotcurrently covertheentirePVvaluechainfromsiliconsupply,throughingotandwaverproductiontocell and module manufacturing. They focus on the more labourintensive and less technology intensivepartofcellandmoduleproduction.Therefore,IndiasPVindustrydependslargelyon theimportofsiliconwaversasinputforitsPVcellproduction.By2020,Indiassolarmissionaims for an annual PV production capacity equivalent to 10GW, including dedicated manufacturing capacitiesforpolysiliconmaterialcorrespondingto2GWcapacityofsolarcells.SolarPVmodule costsinIndiaarearoundINR180000/kW(USD3850/kW)(CERC,2010b). Indiaalsohasgoodconcentratedsolarpower(CSP)potential,notablyinRajasthan,withasolar insolationof2400kWh/m2andhighproportionofsunnydays.Thelandrequirementfor100GW is3600km2.Rajasthanhasmorethan175000km2ofdesertland.Sofar,noCSPplantexistsin India, but several projects with a combined capacity of 381MW are in the planning or construction phase in Gujarat and Rajasthan (Arora et al., 2010). Within its solar mission,India strivestoreachaCSPcapacityof10GWby2022. ThreeongoingCSPprojectsinRajasthanhavebeenincludedassocalledmigrationprojectswith specialtariffconditionswithinthesolarmission,eachhavingacapacityof10MW,butbasedon different technology concepts (tower systems, parabolic dish, parabolic trough with storage). Costs vary from INR150000/kW (USD3208/kW) for the tower system to INR400000/kW (USD8555/kW)forthetroughproject.Foritsbasetariff,CERCassumescalculationinvestment costs of INR153000/kW (USD3330/kW), which can be considered very low compared with commissionedplantsworldwide. Withinthefirstphaseofthesolarmission,446MWofPVand470MWofCSPcapacityarebeing allocatedintenderprocessesby2012,inwhichprojectdevelopersarebiddingforadiscounton base tariffs being determined by CERC.16 Independent of these national support measures, severalIndianstatesarepromotingsolarpowerthroughfeedintariffs.

16 Indiaplanstoachievethe1GWtargetofthefirstphaseofthesolarmission,including54MWofPVand30MWofCSPcapacity already under development before the launch of the solar mission in November2009 (socalled migration projects). The migration projectsbenefitfromspecialtariffconditions,sincetheydonothavetoundergothebiddingprocessoftheregularprojectsinthe solarmission.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

ArecentdevelopmentistheintroductionofPVbasedlightingsystems,initiatedbythenonprofit research organisation The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). So far, 32000 solar lanterns have been provided with PV charging stations to 570 rural villages in India. The costs of INR234billion(USD5billion)neededtoprovide65millionruralhouseholdswithsolarlanterns are estimated by TERI to be less than half of the implied annual subsidy on kerosene consumptioninIndia(Shrivastava,2010). Page|57

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Chapter3:PowersectorscenariosinIndia
Electricitydemandprojections
Indias economy has been growing rapidly over the last decades: at an average rate of 5% Page|59 between1975and1995,andanevenhigherrateof6.9%between1995and2008.Whileinthe first period growth in total commercial primary energy supply (TPES) (i.e. excluding traditional biomass), outpaced economic growth with an average annual growth of 6.3%, a decoupling of economicandprimaryenergydemandcanbeobservedintheperiodupto2008withanaverage annual growth of commercial TPES of 4.9%. Similarly, between 1975 and 1995 final electricity demandgrewatanannualrateof8%fasterthanGDP,butelectricitygrowthfellwitharateof 5.3%belowGDPbetween1995and2008. Projections for future electricity demand are very uncertain, because of the expected continuationofIndiasdynamicdevelopment.GDPdevelopment,industrystructure,population growthandincomelevelsareimportantdriversforenergyandelectricitydemandaswellastheir impactonCO2emissions. According to IEA analysis, the Indian economy is projected to grow at a much faster rate than those of Europe or the United States during the coming four decades. A consequence of this growthwillbeasignificantincreaseinenergyuseandassociatedCO2emissions,inabsoluteand relativeterms.IntheETP2010BaselineScenarioforIndia(IEA,2010a),between2007and2050 GDP will increase eightfold, primary energy use quadruple and CO2 emissions increase almost fivefold.IndiasproportionoftotalglobalCO2emissionsisprojectedtodoublefrom5%to11%. The power sector plays an especially important role as electricity demand is projected to rise fivefold. Maintaining the current high share of coalfired power generation also in the future wouldcausedrasticincreasesinIndiasCO2emissions. OtheragenciesgiveverydifferentgrowthprojectionsfortheIndianeconomyinthenextdecades. GDPprojectionsfromtheCEA/Indiangovernment(Verma,2008)andtheIEAanalysis(IEA,2010a) arecomparedinTable3.1.TheIndianprojectionsoftheGDPlevelin2050aremorethantwiceas high as the IEA projections. CEA projections for the average annual growth rate in GDP for the 200530periodareabouttwopercentage points higherthantheIEAprojection(8%peryearfor CEA vs. about 6% for IEA). For the 203050 period, the difference in projected growth rates increasesto2.5percentagepoints(5.8%forCEAandabout3.3%forIEA).Becauseenergydemand growthiscloselyrelatedtoGDPgrowth,thishasamajorimpactonenergydemandprojections.
Table3.1:ComparisonofGDPprojectionsforIndia(index,2005=100) 2005 CEA IEA 100 100 2010 147 147 2020 317 273 2030 685 485 2040 1335 671 2050 2153 928

Sources:Verma,2008;IEA,2010a.

ThetwoprojectionsfromCEA(Verma,2008)donotincludeanyfutureCO2mitigationpoliciesfor India.InthisaspecttheyarecomparabletotheIEAsETPBaselineScenario(IEA,2010a).Oneof the CEA scenarios assumes that no energy efficiency improvements will be implemented. The demandelasticityofelectricitydeclinesinthisscenariofrom0.95in2011/12to0.725in2051/52. The second CEA scenario, with energy efficiency improvements, assumes a decline in demand

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

elasticityfrom0.95to0.5overtime.Thissignificantlyaffectsdemandin2050.Bothprojections are,however,stillconsiderablyhigherthanthosefromtheIEA. The two projections from the IEA, the Baseline and the BLUE Map Scenarios, are based on a bottomupsystemengineeringmodel.Afivefoldincreaseinelectricitydemandfrom792TWhin 2007 to 4069TWh in 2050 is projected in the Baseline Scenario. Total electricity demand is Page|60 reducedinBLUEMaptothelevelof3769TWh.Figure3.1showselectricitydemandprojections forIndiafromthetwodifferentsources.
Figure3.1:Electricitydemandprojections200750
Electricitygeneration(TWh)
9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 CEAwithoutenergyefficiency CEAwithenergyefficiency ETPBaseline ETPBLUEMap

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Sources:Verma,2008;IEA,2010a.

TotalIndianelectricitydemandin2007/08stoodat717kWhpercapita(basedonUNpractice17) (CEA, 2009a); an increase of 6.7% over the previous year. For the residential sector, electrical energysalestodomesticconsumersamountedonaverageto106kWhin2007/08,witharange from18kWh/capinBiharto424kWh/capinDelhi.
Table3.2:ResidentialelectricitydemandinIndiaandemergingeconomieswithsimilarclimateinAsia 2007 Singapore Malaysia Thailand India
Source:IEA,2009b.

Population (million) 4.6 26.5 63.8 1123.3

Percapitaincome (USD 2000(PPP)/cap) 29603 10934 8585 3583

Residentialelectricitydemand (ktoe) (kWh/cap) 587 1598 2412 10408 1795 858 477 125


17 UNpracticeforthepercapitaelectricityconsumptioniscalculatedonthebasisofthegrosselectricitygenerationduringtheyear.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Comparingtheselevelsofelectricityusetothoseofothercountriesinsimilarclimatezonesgives some insight into future domestic demand development in India. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailandareinasimilarclimatezonebutwithmuchhigherincomelevels.Theirstatisticssuggest aclearrelationbetweenincomelevelsandpercapitaresidentialelectricitydemand(Table3.2). GivenaprojectedGDPpercapitagrowthofafactorof5.7between2007and2050inIndia,one wouldexpectthegrowthofresidentialelectricitydemandpercapitatorisebyasimilaramount, Page|61 toover800kWh/capperyearin2050. ThisimpliesthattheaverageresidentialelectricityconsumptionpercapitainIndiawouldreach nearlytwicethecurrentDelhidemandlevelin2050.Thedemandwouldbeatasimilarlevelto the current level of Malaysia, but still well below that of Singapore. In combination with an assumed 44% population growth between 2007 and 2050, this would result, excluding any efficiency improvements, in a residential electricity demand of 1311TWh, some 12 times the demandlevelof2006/07. AbreakdownforalldemandcategoriesinIndiaintheBLUEMapScenarioisgiveninTable3.3.In total, the final electricity demand grows in the BLUE Map Scenario from 567TWh in 2007 to 3168TWh in 2050. On the production side (industry, commerce and agriculture), significant changesareexpectedastheeconomygrowsnearlyeightfold.Thisimpliesamassiveexpansionof the commercial/services sector (by a factor of six), a significant expansion of manufacturing activity,andmorelimitedgrowthofactivityinagriculture.However,waterneedstobepumped fromincreasingdepthandthisisthemainsourceofelectricitydemandinagriculture.
Table3.3:FinalelectricitydemandbreakdownandprojectionforBLUEMapScenario TWh/yr Domestic Commercial Industry Transport Agricultureandother Total 2006/07 121 44 257 12 133 567 2050 994 283 1202 532 156 3168

Note:TheprojectionsforindustryarebasedonIEAanalysis(IEA,2009c). Sources:IEA,2009b;IEA,2010a;IEA,2009c.

Powercapacityandgenerationprojections
Assuming that the transmission and distribution losses can be reduced to 15% in 2050, about 3700TWh of electricity production is needed in the BLUE Map Scenario in 2050. At full load, 114GW can generate 1000TWh per year. However, in practice plants operate on average far belowthemaximumload.Thisisrelatedpartlytoenergyresourceavailability(e.g.forvariable renewables)andpartlytofluctuationsindemandduringtheyear. Indiahadabout168GWoftotalinstalledcapacityin2008,withanaverageloadfactorof48%. Table3.4 shows the power capacity in the ETP Baseline and BLUE Map Scenarios in 2050 (IEA,2010a). The total capacity in 2050 is between 3.8 and 4.5 times the installed capacity in 2008.However,themixofresourcesusedisquitedifferent.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Table3.4:IndiapowergenerationcapacityintheETP2010Scenarios,2050
Page|62

Powergenerationshare Baseline BLUEMap (%) (%) 7 0 70 0 11 0 9 1 0 0 2 0 1 100 27 1 2 16 12 4 10 4 1 0 5 1 18 100

Loadfactor (%) 95 50 90 90 40 65 56 50 65 85 30 50 40

Capacity Baseline BLUEMap (GW) (GW) 33 0 359 0 126 0 71 12 0 0 33 0 6 641 122 7 7 77 133 27 76 32 3 2 66 5 191 748

Nuclear Oil Coal Coal+CCS Gas Gas+CCS Hydro Bio/waste Bio+CCS Geothermal Wind Tidal Solar Total
Source:IEAAnalysis.

IntheBLUEMapScenario,totalpowercapacitywouldamountto748GW.Thefullpotentialof biomass, geothermal, wind and tidal energy would be used. For hydro, 51% of the potential wouldbedeveloped.Totalcoalfiredcapacitywouldberoughlyatthecurrentlevel,butalmost allthiscapacitywouldbeequippedwithCCS.Forsolarasignificantexpansionisassumed,from nearzeronowto191GW. By contrast, CEA/Verma (2008) projects capacity needs of 13351854GW by 2050. However, thisassumesamuchhigherelectricitydemand(66988679TWh,vs.4069TWh).Thedifference isaccountedforbyacombinationofmuchhighereconomicgrowthrates(twothirdsofthegap) andlowerefficiencygains(onethird)comparedtotheETP2010scenarios. Onaregionallevel,theBLUEMapScenarioprojectstheneedforlargecapacityadditionsinthe regions of Delhi, Calcutta and Patna (Figure3.2). These are also those regions with large installations ofgascapacity.IntheregionsofAhmadabad,Mumbai,TrivandurumandChennai, coalplantsequippedwithCCSshouldbelocatedclosetoCO2storagesites.Mostofthenuclear plants are built to exploit the available cooling water resources along the coastline. Major installationsofsolarpowerplantsareprojectedfortheregionsofBhopal,CalcuttaandDelhi.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Figure3.2:PowercapacitiesbyregionintheBLUEMapScenario,2050
Power capacity by energy source (GW)
Coal Coal + CCS Oil Gas Gas + CCS

Page|63

Nuclear
Hydro Biomass and waste Biomass and waste + CCS Wind

Solar Other

Electricity demand (TWh)


120

> 400 300 - 400 200 - 300

60

100 - 200 50 - 100


30

0 - 50

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebytheIEA.

IntheBaselineScenario,IndiastotalCO2emissionsgrowalmostfivefold,from1.34Gtin2007to 6.45Gtin2050.Thedrasticgrowthinelectricitydemandcombinedwiththerelianceoncoalfor powergenerationleadstoanincreaseofCO2emissionsinthepowersectorfrom0.75Gtin2007 to 2.87Gt in 2050. However, efficiency improvements in new coal power plants reduce the average CO2 intensity of electricity generation in the Baseline Scenario from 935gCO2/kWh in 2007to707gCO2/kWhin2050. IntheBLUEMapScenario,theglobalcarbonpriceofUSD175/tCO2,whichisrequiredtoachieve the50%reductioninglobalCO2emissionsby2050,reducesthetotalCO2emissionsoftheIndian energysectorin2050by73%comparedtotheBaselineScenario.Relativeto2007,thisemission levelin2050of1.47Gtcorrespondstoamodestemissionincreaseof10%.Indiaspowersector gets essentially decarbonised in the BLUE Map Scenario. The shift to nuclear, CCS and solar power yields a dramatic decline in the average CO2 intensity of Indias power generation from 935gCO2/kWhin2007to79gCO2/kWhin2050.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Box5:Aircooling:anoptionforIndia? Foranythermalpowerplant,oncethroughcoolingsystemsusingfreshwaterandseawaterareless costlytobuildandmoreenergyefficientthansystemsusingwetrecirculationthroughcoolingtowers orponds.Thus,thesitingofcoalandnuclearpowerplantsoncoastlinesisusuallypreferable,when otherconsiderationsallow. Forinlandlocationswithoutsuitableaccesstocoolingwater,alternativesolutionsdoexist.Siemens hasdemonstratedinAustraliawiththe750MWcoalpowerplant(atKoganCreek)thatitispossible to operate a coal plant with almost no cooling water consumption (Siemens,2008). By means of a specialaircooledcondenser(ACC),theplantusesairinsteadofwatertocoolthehotsteam(60Cto 80C) leaving the plant turbine. Within the ACC, fans nine metres in diameter blow air against the metal sheets from below to cool and finally condense the steam. Five hundred litres of water per secondflowintoacollectoratthelowerendoftheheatexchangerandthenintoatank,fromwhere pumpsfeeditbackintothepowerplanttogeneratesteam.Thepowerplantcannotoperateentirely withoutfreshwater,however.Waterdrawnfromdeepboresreplenisheslossesinthesteamcycleof theturbinesandservesascoolingwaterfortheelectricalequipment,whichcannotbecooledwith airalone.Nevertheless,withitswatersavingsrateof90%,KoganCreekfaroutperformscomparable powerplantswhenitcomestoeconomyofwateruse.Thissavingoffersextrareservesinextremely dryperiods,whenwatercooledpowerplantsareforcedtoscalebacktheiroutput.AtKoganCreek, the plants operators run it at its full capacity of 750MW even at temperatures well over 40C. Moreover,withits45%efficiency,itisoneofthemostefficientpowerplantsinthecountry.Interms ofreducedwaterneeds,aircoolingcouldbeanidealsolutionforcoalbasedpowergenerationinarid regions.However,whilethewholepowerplantuseslessthan10%ofthewaterrequiredforawet cooledplant(about0.25litre/kWh),thelargefansconsumealotofpower(around1%to1.5%ofthe powerstation'soutput)(WNA,2010b). LikeKoganCreek,anotherAustraliancoalfiredpowerstationatMillmerran(840MWsupercritical) usesACC,asdotwoplantsinSouthAfrica(MatimbaandMajuba).SouthAfricanexperienceputsACC cost at about 50% more than recirculating wet cooling. An ACC typically requires an investment of INR2700/kWto3150/kW(USD60/kWto70/kW).

Page|64

ScenariovariantsfortheIndianpowersector
Scenarios for future electricity demand and the power generation mix of a stronggrowing economy such as India over the next four decades are highly uncertain. For that reason, alternativecasesoftheBaselineandtheBLUE MapScenarioinETP2010forIndia(IEA,2010a) havebeendevelopedforthispaper. Baselinehighdemandcase:FollowingtheprojectionsinCEA/Verma(2008),ahighereconomic growth for India than in the Baseline Scenario in ETP2010 (IEA, 2010a) has been assumed. Assuming an average economic growth of 8%peryear between 2010 and 2030 and of 5.8% thereafter up to 2050, Indias electricity generation would be expected to reach 6600TWh in 2050comparedto4069TWhinthestandardBaselineScenario. BLUEhighdemandcase:BasedonthesameeconomicgrowthasintheBaselinestronggrowth caseforIndia,electricitygenerationisestimatedtoamountto5000TWhin2050comparedto 3700TWhintheBLUEMapScenario(Figure3.3).

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Figure3.3:ElectricitydemandprojectionsforIndiainthepowersectorvariants,20072050

Electricitygeneration(TWh)

7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 IEABaseline IEABLUEMap IEABaselinehighdemand IEABLUEhighdemand

Page|65

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Inaddition,ithasbeenassumedthathigherconstructionratesfornewnuclearpowerplantsin Indiacanbeachieved:5.3GWperyearcomparedto3.1GWperyearintheBLUEMapScenario. ThisconstructionrateassumptionfollowstheoneforIndiausedinaglobalhighnuclearvariant oftheBLUEMapScenarioinETP2010(IEA,2010a).Itresultsinaninstallednuclearcapacityin India of 216GW in 2050, more than 10% of the global nuclear capacity of 2000GW in this scenario. The Indian nuclear capacity figure for 2050 lies between the optimistic (275GW) and thepessimistic(208GW)scenariosintheIEPreportoftheIndiangovernment(GoI,2006).Itis alsoassumedthatthefeasiblehydropotentialofalmost150GWinIndiacanbeexploitedtoa large degree by 2050. Carbon capture and storage for power generation is assumed not to be availableasamitigationoptioninthislowcarbonscenarioforIndia. ThecapacityneedsintheBaselinestronggrowthcaseincreasetoalmost1000GW.Assumingthat nuclearandhydrocapacityinthestronggrowthcasecannotbeexpandedbeyondthelevelinthe standardscenario,morethantwothirdsofthecapacityin2050wouldbebasedoncoal(Table3.5). Asaconsequence,CO2emissionsofthepowersectorwouldincreasefrom2.8Gtin2050inthe standardBaselineScenariotoalmost5Gtinthehighdemandcase.Inthehighdemandcaseof theBLUEScenario,nuclearprovidesonehalfofthe electricityin2050.Ofthe othertwomajor lowcarbongenerationoptions,solarcovers22%andhydro11%ofelectricitydemand. In the absence of CCS in the BLUE strong growth case, gas becomes the most attractive fossil generationoption,coveringtheremainingdemandforelectricity.Inrelativetermstheshareof gas in power generation in this case is, at 16%, similar to the BLUE Map Scenario. Since the absolute generation from gas is, however, about 60% higher, gas imports increase by approximately30bcmin2050,comparedtoagasconsumptioninthepowersectorof100bcm intheBLUEMapScenarioin2050.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Table3.5:IndiapowergenerationcapacityintheETP2010variants,2050
Page|66

Capacity(GW) ETP Highdemand Baseline BLUE Baseline BLUE Nuclear Oil Coal Coal+CCS Gas Gas+CCS Hydro Bio/waste Bio+CCS Geothermal Wind Tidal Solar Total 33 0 359 0 126 0 71 12 0 0 33 0 6 641 122 7 7 77 133 27 76 32 3 2 66 5 191 748 33 1 688 0 148 0 71 12 0 0 34 0 13 1000 216 0 96 0 350 0 137 25 0 2 80 0 370 1277

Generationshare(%) ETP Highdemand Baseline BLUE Baseline BLUE 7 0 70 0 11 0 9 1 0 0 2 0 1 100 27 1 2 16 12 4 10 4 1 0 5 1 18 100 4 0 77 0 11 0 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 100 34 0 9 0 16 0 11 3 0 0 4 0 22 100

Source:IEAAnalysis.

BoththeBLUEMapScenarioandBLUEstronggrowthcaseresultindrasticCO2reductionsinthe power sector. The CO2 intensity from power generation increases in the strong growth case to 98gCO2/kWh compared to 78g/kWh in the BLUE Map Scenario. The higher share of fossil generationwithoutCCSinthestronggrowthcase(25%)comparedtotheBLUEMapScenariois responsiblefortheincrease.However,theachievedCO2intensityof98gCO2/kWhintheBLUE strong growth case still represents an enormous reduction compared to the CO2 intensity of 928g/kWhin2007.

Investmentneeds
Table3.6 provides an overview of the new additional capacity needs and estimated investment requirements for the Baseline and the Blue Map Scenarios between 2010 and 2050. It includes all investments from fuel production to power generation, electricity T&D andelectricenduseequipment. IntheBaselineScenario,between2010and2050theIndianpowersectorneedsnewcumulative capacity additions of 746GW. The cumulative requirement for new capacity is larger than the installedcapacityof641GWin2050,sincesometechnologiesmayrequire,dependingontheir technicallifetimes,areinvestmentbetween2010and2050.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Table3.6:PowersectorinvestmentneedsinIndiainBaselineandBLUEMapScenarios Nuclear Oil Coal Coal+CCS Gas Gas+CCS Hydro Bio/waste Bio+CCS Geothermal Wind Tidal Solar Efficientlighting Efficientequipment Efficientmotorsystems Transmissionanddistribution Electricitystorage Totalelectricityrelated Gasoffshorefields(bcm) GasLNGterminals(bcm) Gaspipelines(bcm) Totalgas Coalmines(Mtcoe) Coalharbours(Mtcoe) Coalrailroads(Mtcoe) Totalcoal Totalall
Source:IEAanalysis.

Newcapacity Baseline BLUEMap


(GW) (GW)

Costs Baseline BLUEMap


(billionUSD) (billionUSD)

33 0 451 0 126 0 43 12 0 0 62 0 19 10 100 80 180 1029 405 1029

122 7 54 77 133 27 46 32 3 2 96 5 222 35 100 80 180 0 424 0

74 0 688 0 86 0 86 26 0 0 98 1 41 23 22 1021 5 2171 118 10 81 209 64 32 126 303 2683

279 5 80 175 90 27 93 68 9 8 129 12 421 29 457 29 1718 18 3647 118 10 81 209 0 34 0 115 3971

Page|67

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Overall,thepowersectorintheBaselineScenariohasacapitalrequirement ofUSD2.2trillion. TheBLUEMapscenarioresultsinnewcapacityadditionsonthegenerationsideof826GW.The capital requirements for power generation, T&D and efficient electric enduse equipment are USD3.6trillion, almost 80% higher than in the Baseline scenario. On the generation side, the additional investment is needed to fund higher capacities for nuclear, CCS and solar power. Page|68 Further capital is needed for the expansion of the grid to connect solar plants in remote areas withdemandcentres,andformoreefficientelectricequipmentintheendusesectors. Theanalysisalsoincludescostsforcoalandgassupplyinfrastructure,whichisveryimportantfor thepowersector.Fornaturalgas,theBaselineandtheBLUEMapScenariosshowquitesimilar naturalgasinfrastructureneeds,ofmaximumgasuseby2050of180bcmintotaland100bcmin powergeneration.About30bcmwouldbedeliveredfromexistingfields,50bcmfromnewfields and 100bcm from LNG imports. This would imply an almost tenfold increase of LNG imports between2008and2050,orsixnew,verylarge10Mt/yearLNGregasificationfacilities.Overall, thegasinfrastructureinbothscenariosrequiresinvestmentofaroundUSD209billion. Forcoalsupply,in theBaselineScenarioIndiareliestoalargedegreeondomesticproduction, which despite the additional rail transport costs is more costeffective than the use of imported coal.ThecapitalneedsforcoalsupplyamounttoUSD303billionintheBaselineScenario.Inthe BLUE Map Scenario by contrast, the use of imported coal is more attractive than the mining of domesticIndiancoal,sincethecoalimportpriceislowerthanintheBaselineScenarioasaresultof thelowerglobalcoaldemand.TheinvestmentsforthecoalsupplyinfrastructureofUSD115billion intheBLUEMapScenarioaremainlyrelatedtoexpansionoftheharbourinfrastructure. TotalinvestmentcostsintheBaselineScenario,includingpowergeneration,T&D,electricenduse equipment, and coal and gas supply, are USD2.7trillion. In the BLUE Map Scenario, these investmentneedsincreasetoUSD4.0trillion.Theadditionofalmost50%intheBLUEMapScenario mayinitiallyappearhuge.Comparingtheinvestmentneedsforthepowersector,however,with Indiascumulativegrossdomesticproduct(PPPbasedin2008prices)ofUSD855trillionbetween 2010and2050,thetotalinvestmentneedsrelatedtopowergenerationintheBaselineandBLUE Mapscenariorepresentonlyarangeof0.3to0.5%oftotalcumulativeGDP.

Conclusions:Towardsapowersectordecarbonisationstrategy
SeveralcharacteristicsmaketheIndianpowersectorverydifferentfromthoseintheotherthree regionsanalysedinETP2010(China,EuropeandtheUnitedStates).First,thedemandgrowthin percentage terms is expected to be much higher. This means that virtually the whole power system must be replanned from scratch, which opens up interesting opportunities to truly transformthepowersector.Second,whilecoalisanimportantindigenousenergyresource,the coal quality is much lower than elsewhere. Thus, Indian coal is not per se the most economic supplyoption:coalimportsorotherpowersupplyoptionsareoftenmorecosteffective.Third, renewable resources, with the exception of solar, are limited in India, particularly when consideredinrelationtothedemandgrowthforecastforthecomingdecades. NuclearandcoalwithCCSrepresenttwoalternative,carbonfreesupplyoptions. Clearly, nuclear power must play a crucial role in a CO2free electricity supply in India. The prospects for nuclear have improved dramatically in recent years thanks to two factors: the agreementbetweenIndiaandtheUnitedStatesin2005liftingathreedecadeUSmoratoriumon nuclear trade with India and allowing the IAEA to inspect civilian nuclear facilities, and in 2008 the consent of the Nuclear Suppliers Group to Indias trade with nonmembers of the Non

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Proliferation Treaty. The option to use imported uranium in combination with an Indian LWR design may present an alternative (or at least complementary) strategy to developing the thoriumbasednuclearindustry. TheurgencyofreducingCO2emissionsisincreasing:iffulldecarbonisationistobeachieved,coal with CCS must be part of the solution. CCS is a relatively new concept in CO2free electricity supply, and development of a technology suited for Indian coal will require special attention. Page|69 However, the complexity of this technology and its impact on electricity cost make it a less attractiveoptionforIndiaintheshortterm.ForcoalwithCCS,itisimportanttoinvestigatethe suitability of different methods of capture (oxyfuelling, precombustion and postcombustion CO2 capture) for Indian coal, which suffers from high ash content. Therefore, precombustion capturewouldrequiretheadaptationofIGCCtechnologytoIndiancoalqualityorinsteadtheuse ofimportedcoal,butwouldofferadditionalbenefitssuchashigherefficiency. Solar is the only option with a large technical potential, and must be included in the decarbonisationstrategyforIndia.However,itsuseisstartingfromaverylowlevelofinstalled capacity and a much more ambitious approach is needed for both PV and CSP. India needs to capitaliseonsolarinvestmentopportunitiesintheshortandmediumterm. Providingelectricityaccessforpoorruralvillagesalsorequiresimmediateattention.Continuing andexpandingprogrammestodevelopdecentralisedsolarsystemswithstorage,andothertypes ofdecentralisedrenewablesupplyoptions,couldenabletheachievementofthisimportantgoal. This analysis has generally taken a longterm perspective, but shortterm options to use electricity more efficiently should not be neglected. Maximising transmission and distribution efficiency,togetherwithenduseefficiency,shouldbetoppriorities.Manyoftheseoptionsare alreadycosteffective,ifpricesreflectthesupplycostsandarenotdistortedbysubsidies.Instead of subsidising electricity use through toolow tariffs, policies should support and subsidise the purchase of energyefficient appliances. Such a strategy may result in substantial savings and reduceddemandgrowth.


Ahmadabad Mumbai Hyderabad Bangalore 186 20 1.5 10 0 2 1 0.3 7 0 17 59 62 27 1 1 1 32 10 8 7 0 0 0 0 5 1 51 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 3 55 4 5 12 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 27 92 5 11 0 2 0 2 0 17 76 44 44 9 2 0 0 0 17 29 20 0 0 20 27 0 0 0 1.5 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 23 2 0 0 0 17 43 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 17 20 20 10 10 20 20 10 0 0 0 0 122 7 7 77 133 27 76 32 3 2 66 5 191 748 356 280 195 94 230 344 243 2 66 18 3168 Trivandurum Chennai Calcutta Patna Gantok Shillong Agartala Total 0 0 0 0 2 6 0

Srinagar

Delhi

Bhopal

OECD/IEA2011

Finaldemand (TWh)

60

855

239

Nuclear(GW)

10

Oil(GW)

Coal(GW)

CoalwCCS (GW)

Gas[GW]

44

GaswCCS (GW)

11

Hydro(GW)

23

Bio/waste (GW)

BiowCCS (GW)

Geothermal (GW)

0.3

0.3

Table3.6:PowersectorinvestmentneedsinIndiainBaselineandBLUEMapScenarios

Wind(GW)

18

Tidal9GW)

Solar(GW)

17

32

32

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

AnnexA:RegionalresultsoftheBLUEMapScenario

Total(GW)

43

118

40

Page|71

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

AnnexB:TheIEApowersectormodelforIndia
TheanalysisoftheIndianpowersectorisbasedontheETPMARKALmodel,complementedbya geographically more detailed spreadsheetbased simulation model. While the MARKAL model contains no geographical information, the simulation model divides India into 14 regions Page|73 (FigureB.1).
FigureB.1:MapofIndiashowingsimulationmodelstructure

Srinagar

Gantok NewDelhi Shillong

Patna Ahmadabad Bhopal Calcutta

Agartala

Mumbai Hyderabad

Bangalore Chennai

Trivandrum

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebytheIEA.

The simulation model allows analysis of the Indian power sector in more detail, taking into accountregionalcharacteristicsonthesupplyanddemandsideofelectricitywithinIndia.Ateach ofthe14nodesthesimulationmodeldescribesthedevelopmentofthepowersectorbasedon electricitydemandintermsofexistingcapacity,newcapacityadditionsbytechnologytype,and input fuel demand. Regional restrictions, such as fossil resources or renewable potentials, are taken into account. Trade in electricity, coal and gas between the 14 nodes as well as the necessary transport infrastructure is also depicted in the simulation model. The assumed trade links and the transport distances between the model nodes, which influence the investment costs and thereby the overall costs for energy trade between the regions, are shown in FigureB.2.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

FigureB.2:MapofIndia:distancesinkilometres

Srinagar

Page|74

Gantok NewDelhi Shillong

Patna Ahmadabad Bhopal Calcutta

Agartala

Mumbai Hyderabad

400km
Bangalore 321km Chennai Trivandrum

Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsementoracceptancebytheIEA.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

AnnexC:Abbreviationsandunits
Abbreviations AC ACC ABWR AHWR APR1400 BEE BHEL C CBM CCS CDM CEA CERC CFBC CO2 CSP DAE DC EPR ETP EWPL FBC FBR GAIL GDP GHG HBJ HVJ IAEA IEA IEP alternatingcurrent aircooledcondensers advancedboilingwaterreactor advancedheavywaterreactor advancedpressurisedreactor,1400MWcapacity BureauofEnergyEfficiency BharatHeavyElectricalsLimited Celsius coalbedmethane carboncaptureandstorage CleanDevelopmentMechanism CentralElectricityAuthority CentralElectricityRegulatoryCommission circulatingfluidisedbedcombustion carbondioxide concentratingsolarpower DepartmentofAtomicEnergy directcurrent Europeanpressurisedreactor EnergyTechnologyPerspectives EastWestpipeline fluidisedbedcombustion fastbreederreactor GasAuthorityofIndiaLimited grossdomesticproduct greenhousegas HaziraBijaypurJagdishpurgaspipeline HaziraVijaipurJagdishpurgaspipeline InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency InternationalEnergyAgency IntegratedEnergyPolicy
Page|75

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

IGCC IPCC IR LED LNG LWR MER MNRE MoF MoP MPNG NAPCC NEP NGCC NMEEE NOx NPCIL NTP NTPC OECD PFBC PHWR PLF PPP PV R&D REC REP RM&U RPO SEB SERC T&D TERI TPES

integratedgasificationcombinedcycle IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange IndianRailways lightemittingdiode liquefiednaturalgas lightwaterreactor marketexchangerate MinistryofNewandRenewableEnergy(India) MinistryofFinance(India) MinistryofPower(India) MinistryofPetroleumandNaturalGas(India) NationalActionPlanonClimateChange(India) NationalElectricityPolicy(India) naturalgascombinedcycle NationalMissiononEnhancedEnergyEfficiency(India) nitrogenoxides NuclearPowerCorporationofIndiaLimited NationalTariffPolicy(India) NationalThermalPowerCorporation(India) OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment pressurisedfluidisedbedcombustion pressurisedheavywaterreactor plantloadfactor purchasingpowerparity photovoltaic researchanddevelopment renewableelectricitycertificate RuralElectrificationPolicy renovation,modernisationanduprating renewablepurchaseobligation StateElectricityBoard(India) StateElectricityRegulatoryCommission(India) transmissionanddistribution TheEnergyandResourcesInstitute(India) totalprimaryenergysupply

Page|76

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

UMPP UNFCCC UT VVER Units bcm bt cap g GJ Gt Gtcoe GW GWh ha INR km km2 kt kV kWh MJ Mtcoe Mtoe MW ppm t toe TWh USD W

UltramegaPowerProject(India) UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange UnionTerritory(India) VodoVodyanoiEnergeticheskyReactor(WaterWaterEnergetic Reactor)

Page|77

billioncubicmetres=109cubicmetres billiontonne=109tonnes capita grammes gigajoule=109joules gigatonne=109tonnes gigatonnecoalequivalent gigawatt=109watt gigawatthour=109wattx1hour hectare Indianrupee kilometre squarekilometres kilotonne kilovolt=103volt kilowatthour=103wattxhour megajoule=106joules milliontonnecoalequivalent=106tonneofcoalequivalent milliontonneofoilequivalent=106tonneofoilequivalent megawatt=106watt partspermillion tonne tonneofoilequivalent Terawatthour=1012wattx1hour UnitedStatesdollar watt

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

AnnexD:References
Ajai,Arya,A.S.,Dhinwa,P.S.,S.K.PathanandK.GaneshRaj(2009),Desertification/landdegradation statusmappingofIndia,CurrentScience,Vol.97,No.10. Alagh,Y.K.(2010),TransmissionandDistributionofElectricityinIndiaRegulation,Investmentand Efficiency,http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/35/33/46235043.pdf. Arora,D.S.,S.Busche,S.Cowlin,T.Engelmeier,H.Jaritz,A.MilbrandtandS.Wang(2010),Indian RenewableEnergyStatusReport:BackgroundReportforDIREC2010,NREL/TP6A2048948,US DepartmentofEnergy,OakRidge,USA. Banerjee,R.(2008),RenewablePowerGenerationinIndia:EstablishingFeasibleTargets,presentationat IIASAseminar,Laxenburg,4June,www.me.iitb.ac.in/~rangan/professional_activity/Renpower.pdf. Bassi,S.(n.d.),BureauofEnergyEfficiencyandEnergyConservationBuildingCode:AnOverview, undatedPowerpointpresentation,BEE,www.hareda.gov.in/SHABNAM.ppt. BEE(BureauofEnergyEfficiency,GovernmentofIndia)(2009),BEEAgriculturalDemandSideManagement Programme,2009,GovernmentofIndia. Bertani, R. (2009), Geothermal energy: an overview on resources and potential, presentation at International Geothermal Days Slovakia 2009, Conference and Summer School, May 2629, ast Papiernika. BGR(BundesanstaltfrGeowissenschaftenundRohstoffe,FederalInstituteforGeosciencesandNatural Resources)(2009),EnergyResources2009:Reserves,Resources,Availability,BGR,Hannover, www.bgr.bund.de/cln_144/nn_335082/EN/Themen/Energie/Produkte/energyresources__2009.html?__ nnn=true. Bhushan,C.(2010),ChallengeoftheNewBalance,CentreforScienceandEnvironment,NewDelhi. BNEF(BloombergNewEnergyFinance)(2010a),IndustryIntelligence,RenewableEnergyAssetsDatabase. BNEF(2010b),India,SolarPVvaluechain,ResearchNote,November23. Bootsveld,N.R.andJ.Afink(2002),Summaryoftheinvestigationevaluationtechnologydewpoint cooling,TNOreportR2002/576Summary,http://oxycom.com/cmsfiles/PDF/TNO%20Report%20 %20Summary%20English.pdf. BuragohainB.,P.MahantaandV.S.Moholkar(2010),BiomassGasificationforDecentralizedPower Generation:TheIndianPerspective,RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviews,Vol.14,pp.7392. CEA(2008a),AnnualReport2007/08,CentralElectricityAuthority,NewDelhi. CEA(2008b),MajorTransmissionNetworkofIndia,CentralElectricityAuthority,NewDelhi. CEA(2009a),AllIndiaElectricityStatistics2009,GeneralReview2009,CentralElectricityAuthority,New Delhi. CEA(2009b),GrowthofElectricitySectorinIndiafrom19472009,CentralElectricityAuthority,New Delhi. CEA(2010a),MonthlyReviewofPowerSector31July2010,CentralElectricityAuthority,NewDelhi. CEA(2010b),LoadGenerationBalanceReport,201011,CentralElectricityAuthority,NewDelhi. CERC(CentralElectricityRegulatoryCommission)(2010a),DeterminationofGenericLevellisedGeneration TariffunderRegulation8oftheCentralElectricityRegulatoryCommission,PetitionNo.256/2010, CERC,NewDelhi. CERC(2010b),DeterminationofBenchmarkCapitalCostNormforSolarPVPowerProjectsandSolar ThermalPowerProjectsApplicableDuringFY201112,PetitionNo.255/2010,CERC,NewDelhi.
Page|79

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Chakarvarti,K.K.,IndoGermanEnergyProgramme:ThermalPowerPlantOptimizationComponent, presentationatWorkshoponAdoptionofenergyefficientprocesstechnologies&practicesand implementationofEnergyConservationAct2001inPowerPlants,NewDelhi,November29. Chandrasekharam,D.(2000),GeothermalResourcesofIndia,presentationatGeothermalPowerAsia 2000,February.


Page|80

Chikkatur,A.P.andA.D.Sagar(2007),CleanerPowerinIndia:TowardsaCleanCoalTechnology Roadmap,BelferCenterDiscussionPaper200706,December2007,HarvardUniversity. CMA(ChinaMeteorologicalAssociation)(2010),Detailedinvestigationofwindenergyresources:wind energydevelopmentpotentialofover2.5billionkilowatts,5January, http://www.cma.gov.cn/mtjj/201001/t20100105_55807.html(onChinese). CWET(CentreforWindEnergyTechnology)(2010),RevisedListofModelsandManufacturersofWind Turbines,18.05.2010, www.windpowerindia.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16&Itemid=20 DAE(DepartmentofAtomicEnergy)(n.d.),Document10:StrategyforGrowthofElectricalEnergyin India,www.dae.gov.in/publ/doc10/index.htm. DOE(USDepartmentofEnergy)(2009),AlternativeBagasseCogeneration(GreenhouseGasPollution PreventionProject),www.pi.energy.gov/documents/EWSLindia.pdf. ElectricalMonitor(2009),HydroPowerGearsupforXIIPlan,ElectricalMonitor,1December, www.electricalmonitor.com/GENERAL/hydropowergearsupforxiiplan. ElectricalMonitor(2010),RajasthanTakesLeadinTariffBasedPowerTransmission,ElectricalMonitor, 10November,www.electricalmonitor.com/T&D/rajasthantakesleadintariffbasedpower transmission. Eliasson,L.(2008),GeothermalpotentialinEurope, http://eng.idnadarraduneyti.is/media/Acrobat/Geothermal_Potential_in_Europe_Enex_080201_Larus_ Eliasson.ppt. ESHA(EuropeanSmallHydropowerAssociation)(2005),BlueenergyforagreenEurope:strategicstudy for the development of small hydro power in the European Union, Brussels, http://www.esha.be/fileadmin/esha_files/documents/publications/publications/BlueAGE.pdf. Eurostat(2010),Statistics:Supply,transformation,consumptionelectricityannualdata(nrg_105a),last updated23October,http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database. Garg,A.,S.Bhattacharya,P.R.ShuklaandV.K.Dadhwal(2001),AtmosphericandSectoralAssessmentof GreenhouseGasEmissionsinIndia,AtmosphericEnvironment,No.35,pp.26792695. GEDA(GujaratEnergyDevelopmentAgency)(2003),Tidalenergy, www.geda.org.in/other_sources/other_re_sources.htm. Glitnir(2007),UnitedStatesGeothermalEnergyMarketReport,GlitnirGeothermalResearch, September. GoI(GovernmentofIndia)(2003),TheElectricityAct:2003,MinistryofLawandJustice,GOI,NewDelhi. GoI(2006),IntegratedEnergyPolicy,ReportoftheExpertCommittee,PlanningCommission,GoI,New Delhi. GoI(2008),NationalActionPlanonClimateChange,PrimeMinistersCouncilonClimateChange,GoI, NewDelhi. GoI(2010),MidtermAppraisalofthe11thFiveYearPlan,GoI,NewDelhi, http://planningcommission.gov.in/plans/mta/11th_mta/MTA.html.

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

Gupta,P.(2008),SuperCriticalTechnologyinNTPCIndia:ABriefOverview,PresentationatCleanerCoal WorkshopOnSolutionstoAsiasGrowingEnergyandEnvironmentalChallenges,APECEnergyWorking Group,HaLongCity,Vietnam,1921August, www.egcfe.ewg.apec.org/publications/proceedings/CleanerCoal/HaLong_2008/. GWEC(GlobalWindEnergyCouncil)(2009),IndianWindEnergyOutlook2009,GWEC,NewDelhi. Hall,D.G.,Reeves,K.S.,Brizzee,J.,Lee,R.D.,G.R.CarrollandG.L.Sommers(2006),FeasibilityAssessment oftheWaterEnergyResourcesoftheUnitedStatesforNewLowPowerandSmallHydroClassesof HydroelectricPlants,IdahoNationalLaboratory,January, http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/doewater11263.pdf. Holm,A.,L.Blodgett,D.JennejohnandK.Gawell(2010),GeothermalEnergy:InternationalMarket UpdateMay2010,GEA(GeothermalEnergyAssociation). IAEA(InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency)(2010),NuclearTechnologyReview2010,GC(54)/INF/3,10 August,www.iaea.org/About/Policy/GC/GC54/GC54InfDocuments/English/gc54inf3_en.pdf. IEA(InternationalEnergyAgency)(2007),WorldEnergyOutlook2007,IEA/OECD,Paris. IEA(2008),EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2008,Scenarios&Strategiesto2050,IEA/OECD,Paris, www.iea.org/w/bookshop/add.aspx?id=330. IEA(2009a),CO2EmissionsfromFuelCombustion,2009Edition,IEA/OECD,Paris. IEA(2009b),EnergyBalancesofNonOECDCountries,2009Edition,IEA/OECD,Paris, www.iea.org/Textbase/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1078. IEA(2009c),EnergyTechnologyTransitionsforIndustries:StrategiesfortheNextIndustrialRevolution, IEA/OECD,Paris,www.iea.org/Textbase/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=2104. IEA(2009d),EnergyBalancesofOECDCountries,2009Edition,IEA/OECD,Paris, www.iea.org/Textbase/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=2033. IEA(2009e),WorldEnergyOutlook2009,IEA/OECD,Paris. IEA(2010a),EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2010,Scenarios&Strategiesto2050,IEA/OECD,Paris. IEA(2010b),NaturalGasinIndia,IEA/OECD,Paris. IEA(2010c),WorldEnergyOutlook2010,IEA/OECD,Paris. IEA(2010d),ComparativeStudyonRuralElectrificationPoliciesinEmergingEconomies:KeystoSuccessful Policies,workingpaper,IEA/OECD,Paris. IEAGHG(IEAGreenhouseGas)(2008),ARegionalAssessmentofthePotentialforCO2Storageinthe IndianSubcontinent,IEAGHGR&DProgrammeReport2008/2,IEAEnvironmentalProjectsLtd. (GreenhouseGasR&DProgramme),Cheltenham,UK. IndianRailways(IR)(2006),Freightratetables, http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/indianrailways/directorate/traffic_comm/index.jsp. IPCC(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange)(2007),IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange FourthAssessmentReport,IPCC,Geneva. IR(2010),IndianRailwaysAnnualStatisticalStatements200809, http://www.indianrailways.gov.in/indianrailways/directorate/stat_econ/downloads/Final_Railway_08 09.pdf. ISA(IndiaSemiconductorAssociation)(2008),SolarPVIndustry:GlobalandIndianScenario,Supported byNationalManufacturingCompetitivenessCouncil(NMCC),ISA,Bangalore. Jagannathan,V.(2010),IndiraGandhiCentreforAtomicResearchtoDevelopAdvancedBoilerforCoal FiredPowerPlants,IndiaVision,http://www.indiavision.com/news/article/scitech/99359/.
Page|81

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Kakodkar,A.(2008),EvolvingIndianNuclearProgrammeRationaleandPerspective, http://www.dae.gov.in/lecture/paperiasc.pdf. Kanwarpal,V.(2009),India:TheNewNuclearAge,TheEnergyIndustryTimes,January,p.14. Kapshe,M.,A.GargandP.R.Shukla(2002),ApplicationofAIM/LocalModeltoIndiaUsingAreaandLarge PointSources,inM.Kainuma,Y.MatsuokaandT.Morita(eds.),ClimatePolicyAssessment:Asia PacificIntegratedModelling,SpringerVerlag,Tokyo. Lako,P.,H.Eder,M.deNoordandH.Reisinger(2003),HydropowerDevelopmentwithaFocusonAsiaand WesternEurope,VerbundplanandECN. Mathy,S.andC.Guivarch(2009),WhatifEnergyDecouplingofEmergingEconomiesWereNotso Spontaneous?AnIllustrativeExampleonIndia,CIREDworkingpapersNo.132009,CIRED,Nogent surMarne,France. Mathur,N.(2010),OverviewofIndianpowersector,presentationatJointIEAIndiaWorkshopon IndustrialEnergyEfficiency,NewDelhi,27January. Mercados(2010),DevelopmentofaFiveYearStrategyforMinistryofNewandRenewableEnergy, briefingpaper,http://mnre.gov.in/pdf/strategic_plan_RE.pdf. Mills,S.J.(2007),ProspectsforCoalandCleanCoalTechnologiesinIndia,ReportCCC/129,December 2007,IEACCC(IEACleanCoalCentre),London. MinistryofCoalIndia(2010),Annualreport20092010,GovernmentofIndia,NewDelhi. MNRE(MinistryofNewandRenewableEnergyIndia)(2007),RenewableEnergyAkshayUrja,newsletterof theMinistryofNewandRenewableEnergy,Vol.3,No.2,GovernmentofIndia. MNRE(2009a),JawaharlalNehruNationalSolarMission:TowardsBuildingSOLARINDIA,Governmentof India,http://mnre.gov.in/pdf/missiondocumentJNNSM.pdf. MNRE(2009b),SchemeforImplementationofGenerationBasedIncentives(GBI)forGridInteractive WindPowerProjects,17December,GovernmentofIndia,www.mnre.gov.in/gbischeme.htm. MNRE(2010a),AnnualReport200910,GovernmentofIndia,http://mnre.gov.in/annualreport/2009 10EN/index.htm. MNRE(2010b),RenewableEnergyinIndia:Progress,VisionandStrategy,GovernmentofIndia, www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/mnrepaperdirec201025102010.pdf. MNRE(2010c),BiomassResourceAtlasofIndia,http://lab.cgpl.iisc.ernet.in/atlas/Default.aspx. MoF(MinistryofFinance)(2008a),MonthlyeconomicreportDecember2007, http://www.finmin.nic.in/stats_data/monthly_economic_report/2007/inddec07.pdf. MoF(2008b),EconomicSurvey200708,http://indiabudget.nic.in/es200708/esmain.htm. MoF(2010),EconomicSurvey200910,http://indiabudget.nic.in/es200910/esmain.htm. MoP(MinistryofPowerIndia)(2004),Definitionofelectrifiedvillage, http://rggvy.gov.in/rggvy/rggvyportal/index.html. MoP(2008),HydroPowerPolicy2008,GovernmentofIndia,NewDelhi. MottMacDonald(2008),BritishHighCommissionUMPPRiskAnalysis,BritishHighCommission,New Delhi, http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/what%20we%20do/global%20climate%20change%20and%20ene rgy/tackling%20climate%20change/intl_strategy/dev_countries/india/umppriskanalysis.pdf. MPNG(MinistryofPetroleumandNaturalGasIndia)(2009),BasicStatisticsonIndianPetroleum& NaturalGas200809,September2009,GovernmentofIndia.

Page|82

OECD/IEA2011

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

NDRC(NationalDevelopmentandReformCommission)(2007),Mediumandlongtermdevelopmentplan for renewable energy in China (abbreviated version, English draft), September, http://www.chinaenvironmentallaw.com/wpcontent/uploads/2008/04/mediumandlongterm developmentplanforrenewableenergy.pdf. NEA/IAEA(NuclearEnergyAgency/InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency)(2008),Uranium2007:Resources, ProductionandDemand,OECD/NEApressrelease,OECD,Biggleswade,UK. Page|83 NREL(NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,USDepartmentofEnergy)(2010),80MeterWindMaps andWindResourcePotential,USDepartmentofEnergy, http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_maps.asp. NRSA(NationalRemoteSensingAgency)(2005),WastelandAtlasofIndia,NRSA,Bangalore/Hyderabad. Nunes,S.(2009),Coalupgrading,ReportCCC/156,October2009,IEACCC(IEACleanCoalCentre), London. Oda,H.andY.Tsujita(2010),TheDeterminantsofRuralElectrificationinBihar,India,IDEdiscussion paperNo.254,https://ir.ide.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/2344/916/1/ARRIDE_Discussion_No.254_oda.pdf. ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation of India) (2010), ONGC begins Shale Gas exploration, http://www.ongcindia.com/def1.asp?fold=headline&file=headline254.txt. Paimpillil,S.J.andM.Baba(2009),Linkingofwaveenergyutilisationwithcoastalprotection, presentationat2ndInternationalConferenceonthePalestinianEnvironment,1315October,Nablus. Platts(2010),WorldElectricPowerPlantsDatabase2009,Platts/McGrawHill,NewYork. Raghuram,G.andR.Gangwar(2008),IndianRailwaysinthePastTwentyYears:Issues,Performanceand Challenges,W.P.No.20080705,IndianInstituteofManagement,Ahmedabad. Ramanathan,K.andP.Abeygunawardena(2007),HydropowerDevelopmentinIndia:ASectorAssessment, ADB(AsianDevelopmentBank),www.adb.org/Documents/Reports/HydropowerDevt India/HydropowerDevtIndia.pdf. Ramesh,J.(2009),IndiaOpensupNucleartoPrivateSector,TheEnergyIndustryTimes,January,p.7. Schwartz,M.,D.Heimiller,S.Haymes,andW.Musial(2010),AssessmentofOffshoreWindEnergy ResourcesfortheUnitedStates,TechnicalReport,NREL/TP50045889,USDepartmentofEnergy. Shrivastava,M.(2009),SolarEnergyinIndia:Onitsfeet,butcanitwinthemarathon?,presentation6 December,Cancun,Mexico. Siemens(2008),Siemensbuildscoalfiredpowerstationthatoperateswithoutcoolingwater,Pressrelease 13June,http://www.siemens.co.za/en/news_press/news2008/index/june132008.htm. Singh,A.K.,V.A.MendheandA.Garg(2006),CO2SequestrationPotentialofGeologicalFormationsin India,presentationat8thInternationalConferenceonGreenhouseGasControlTechnologies, Trondheim,Norway,1922June. SKM(SinclairKnightMerzConsulting)(2009),Thecaseforultracleancoal, http://www.skmconsulting.com/KnowledgeandInsights/Publications/AchieveMagazine/Previous Editions/2009/Issue1/090106.aspx. Sonde,R.R.(2007),CarbonCaptureandStorage:IndianPerspectiveNeedforHighEndR&Dand InternationalCollaboration,presentationatOvercomingBarrierstoCCSDeploymentWorkshop,Paris, 27March2007. Srivastava,S.K.(2010),CBMDevelopmentinIndia,presentationatAustraliaIndiaEnergyandMinerals Forum2010,AustralianGovernmentDepartmentofResources,EnergyandTourism,Perth,78June 2010.

TechnologyDevelopmentProspectsfortheIndianPowerSector

OECD/IEA2011

Suresh,P.R.andS.Elachola(2000),DistributionLossofElectricityandInfluenceofEnergyFlows:ACase StudyofaMajorSectioninKerala,DiscussionPaperNo.23,KeralaResearchProgrammeonLocalLevel Development,Thiruvananthapuram,India. ThresherR.andW.Musial(2010),OceanRenewableEnergysPotentialRoleinSupplyingFutureElectrical EnergyNeeds,Oceanography,Vol.23,No.2,pp.1621.


Page|84

UBA(Umweltbundesamt,FederalEnvironmentAgencyGermany)(2009),RoleandPotentialofRenewable EnergyandEnergyEfficiencyforGlobalEnergySupply,pressreleaseDecember2009,UBA,Germany. Verma,V.S.(2008),IndianScenariosandTechnologyData,PresentationatMoP/NTPCIEAETP2010 workshop,NewDelhi,21November2008. VTTTechnicalResearchInstituteofFinland(2007),BioenergyTechnologyReview,internalreportforIEA, EditaPrima,Helsinki. Wang,Q.andY.Chen(2010),StatusandoutlookofChinasfreecarbonelectricity,Renewableand SustainableEnergyReviews,14,pp.10141025. WEC(WorldEnergyCouncil)(2009),IndiaEnergyBook2007(VolumeI&VolumeII),WEC, www.indiaworldenergy.org/WECIMC_publication.php. WEC(2010),2010SurveyofEnergyResources,WEC,London. WIPO(WorldIntellectualPropertyOrganization)(2010),AnImprovedbeneficiationprocesstoproduce lowashcleancoalfromhighashcoals,WO2010/026600A1,11March. WNA(WorldNuclearAssociation)(2010a),NuclearpowerinIndia,WNA,www.world nuclear.org/info/inf53.html. WNA(2010b),Coolingpowerplants,WNA,www.world nuclear.org/info/cooling_power_plants_inf121.html. WorldBank(2008),ResidentialConsumptionofElectricityinIndia:DocumentationofDataand Methodology,backgroundpaperdraft,July2008,WorldBank,http://moef.nic.in/downloads/public information/Residentialpowerconsumption.pdf. WPI(WindPowerIndia)(2010),ManufacturersWiseWindElectricGeneratorsInstalledinIndia(ason 31.03.2010), http://www.windpowerindia.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=19&Itemid=24. Zaleski,C.P.andM.Cruciani(2009),NuclearPowerinIndia,inJ.LesourneandW.C.Ramsay(eds.), EnergyinIndiasFuture:Insights,InstitutFranaisdesRelationsInternationales(IFRI),Paris.

9 rue de la Fdration 75739 Paris Cedex 15

www.iea.org

You might also like