Problems of Goa’s

unsustainable
urbanisation and the
future threat from sea
level rise

By Dr. Nandkumar M. Kamat

Lecturer, Goa University
Member, state level steering
committee (SLSC), Ministry of
Urban development, JNNURM,
Govt. of India, 2008
Area shaded in
Red shows the
focus of
urbanisation-at
present and for
future
 Population Projection
Talukawise Assignment
North 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011(
Goa (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) %)

Tiswadi 131941 139033 146443 155026 157948 175517 181617

(13.1) (12.8) (12.5) (12.2) (11.8) (11.7) (11.0)
Bardez 153913 170766 189383 211089 226447 264945 288656
(15.3) (15.7) (16.2) (16.7) (16.8) (17.6) (17.5)
Pernem 59352 62927 66689 71032 72816 81414 84761
(5.9) (5.8) (5.7) (5.6) (5.4) (5.4) (5.1)
Bicholim 74089 79156 84532 90731 93723 105594 110780
(7.4) (7.3) (7.2) (7.2) (7.0) (7.0) (6.7)
Satari 40838 44984 49530 54810 58376 67810 73348
(4.1) (4.1) (4.2) (4.3) (4.3) (4.5) (4.4)
Ponda 107888 117644 128227 140467 148097 170296 182349
(10.7) (10.8) (11.0) (11.1) (11.0) (11.3) (11.1)
Sub 568021 614511 664804 723155 757407 865576 921511
Total (56.4) (56.6) (56.8) (57.1) (56.4) (57.5) (56.9)
 Population Projection
Talukawise Assignment
North 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011(
Goa (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) %)

Tiswadi 131941 139033 146443 155026 157948 175517 181617

(13.1) (12.8) (12.5) (12.2) (11.8) (11.7) (11.0)
Bardez 153913 170766 189383 211089 226447 264945 288656
(15.3) (15.7) (16.2) (16.7) (16.8) (17.6) (17.5)
Pernem 59352 62927 66689 71032 72816 81414 84761
(5.9) (5.8) (5.7) (5.6) (5.4) (5.4) (5.1)
Bicholim 74089 79156 84532 90731 93723 105594 110780
(7.4) (7.3) (7.2) (7.2) (7.0) (7.0) (6.7)
Satari 40838 44984 49530 54810 58376 67810 73348
(4.1) (4.1) (4.2) (4.3) (4.3) (4.5) (4.4)
Ponda 107888 117644 128227 140467 148097 170296 182349
(10.7) (10.8) (11.0) (11.1) (11.0) (11.3) (11.1)
Sub 568021 614511 664804 723155 757407 865576 921511
Total (56.4) (56.6) (56.8) (57.1) (56.4) (57.5) (56.9)
 Population Projection
Talukawise Assignment
South Goa 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Mormuga 98541 108994 120503 133901 148790 167027 195857
o (8.8) (10.0) (10.3) (10.6) (11.1) (11.1) (11.9)
Salcete 193755 206457 219897 235393 251988 272512 307844
(19.2) (19.0) (18.8) (18.6) (18.7) (18.1) (18.7)
Quepem 55593 59902 64518 69839 75602 82678 94446
(5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.6) (5.5) (5.7)
Sanguem 55904 57616 59355 61455 63630 66557 72723
(5.5) (5.3) (5.1) (4.8) (4.7) (4.4) (4.4)
Canacona 35935(3 38259 40716 43549 46581 50333 56811
.6) (3.5) (3.5) (3.4) (3.5) (3.3) (3.4)
Sub Total 439728( 471229( 504989( 544138 586592 639107 727681
43.6) 43.4) 43.2) (42.9) (43.6) (42.5) (44.1)
Total 100774 1085739 1169793 126729 134399 150468 1649192
9 9(100) (100) 3(100) 8(100) 2 (100)
(100) (100)

Note : Mid-point growth rate of 1.558 during the decade (1986-1996) is taken
 Population Projection
Urban-Rural Components of
Population
• The decadal growth rate of urban
population during (1981-1991) has been
48.63%
Year  Urban Component Urban
(% of Total Population
Population)

1981 32.03 322782

1991 41.01 479732

2001 53.04 728222

2011 65.08 1073294

 Population Projection
Rural-Urban Composition
Taluka Urban Rural Population Population of Taluka at
Population (2011) 2011
(2011)
North Goa

Tiswadi 126705 (69.8) 54912 (30.2) 181617

Bardez 224682 (77.8) 63974 (22.2) 288656
Pernem 45173 (53.3) 39588 (46.7) 84761
Bicholim 45275 (40.9) 65505 (59.1) 110780
Satari 24975 (34.1) 48373 (65.9) 73348
Ponda 127951 (70.2) 54398 (29.8) 182349
Total 594761 (64.6) 326750 (35.4) 921511
South Goa

Marmugao 184696 (94.3) 11161 (15.7) 195857

Salcete 178749 (58.1) 129095 (41.9) 307844
Quepem 59179 (62.6) 35267 (37.4) 94446
Sanguem 14571 (20.0) 58152 (80.0) 72723
Canacona 17463 (30.7) 39348 (69.3) 56811
Total 454658 (62.5) 273023 (37.5) 727681
Total Goa 1049419 (63.6) 599773 (36.4) 1649192
 Urbanization from space
Satellite images of Goa’s urban
areas and the problem spots

Mapusa, Pernem, Siolim, Panaji,

Porvorim, Bicholim, Ponda,
Marmagoa-Vasco, Sanquelim,
Margao and Salcete etc.
Margao’s urban sprawl
Central Margao
Salcete ubanisation
Quepem
Bicholim
Bicholim bus stand near the river
Sanquelim town and outskirts
Sanquelim topohydrography
Image mosaic of Bardez coastline-dense settlements
 THREATS TO
URABNISATION
INDIA’S COASTAL CITIES
ARE IN DANGER
Global warming, sea level rise
and coastal urban centres:- a
quick tour of the vulnerable
areas
We can not wait for the Indian version
 World is reacting but We are slow
learners…
• Latur and Bhuj earthquakes
• Orissa supercyclone
• Asian Tsunami
• The deluge in Ahmedabad and Mumbai
after record rains
• Probably the kicking action by nature
prompted the lawmakers to respond with a
far reaching legislative remedy
Human exposure to sea-level rise is significant
and growing
• Global-mean sea level rose at least 10 cm during the
20th Century
• This rise is expected to continue
• Likely to accelerate due to human-induced warming
during the 21st Century.
• Coastal zones in world account for 25% of
population
• Coastal population are increasing due to migrations
• The highest population density occur seaward across
the near-coastal zone, below 20 m elevation ( many
coastal cities and towns in India fall in this category)
• Urbanisation is an important trend and 20 large
coastal cities (>8 million people) are projected for
2010, together with many more smaller cities and
towns clustered close to the coastline
Global-mean sea-level rise will result
in a range of impacts

• increased flood risk and

submergence
• salinisation of surface and
ground waters and
morphological change,
• such as erosion and wetland
loss
The natural-system effects of sea-level rise
have a range of potential socio-economic
impacts
Increased loss of property and coastal habitats
Increased flood risk and potential loss of life
Damage to coastal protection works and other
infrastructure
Loss of renewable and subsistence resources
Loss of tourism, recreation, and transportation
functions
Loss of non-monetary cultural resources and
values
Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through
decline in soil and water quality
Coastal cities are always vulnerable to climate
changes

Most of the people residing in coastal zones are

directly dependent on natural resource bases of
coastal ecosystems
Any global warming-induced climatic change
such as
increase in sea surface temperature,
change in frequency, intensity or tracks of
cyclones,
sea level rise
may aggravate the potential risks to coastal zones
UNEP report (1989) has identified
India as one amongst 27 countries
which are most vulnerable to the
impacts of
global warming related accelerated
sea level rise
Why India’s coastline is vulnerable to SLR?

• Large low-lying coastal areas such as

Kutch, Saurashtra, parts of Konkan, Goa,
Malabar, regions near river deltas
• unsustainable settlements
• high population density
• high settlement density
• Increased interference in natural defense
barriers (sand dunes, mangroves, wetlands )
 The worst affected regions from
physical point of view

• Land area loss >Gujarat and West

Bengal
• Highest land area loss> Goa-4-5% of
total area
• Impact on Population >West Bengal,
Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu (on account of
high population density in coastal cities)
The vulnerabilty of area and population of
coastal states to SLR
 The consequences of the deluge…
• India’s coastal states would lose about 6000 sq.
kms. area
• About 7-8 million people would be affected
• Most vulnerable areas on west coast> Kutch,
Mumbai, coastal Goa, South Kerala.
• On east coast> urban centres near deltas of river
Ganges (West Bengal), Cauvery (Tamil Nadu),
Krishna and Godawari (Andhra Pradesh),
Mahanadi (Orissa)
• Islands of Lakshadweep archipelago would be
submerged
Circles denote vulnerable coastal areas
East-West geomorphological profile of India’s coasts
The east coast does not have solid defenses
A quick tour of some
vulnerable cities from
Gujarat to West
Bengal
Points to remember….as you watch
these images…
• Most of the cities do not have the
topography in their favour to withstand SLR
• Mean elevation ranges from 0- 20 metres
with heavily built coastal areas just within
1-7 m above sea level
• The first impact of SLR would be felt by
the low lying areas
Dwaraka-Gujarat-may again be swallowed by sea
Dwaraka-This area is just a few met. above sea level…
It would be a hopeless situation for Gandhiji’s Porbander
too…
Porbander is encroaching on its’ beaches…and may pay a price
after SLR
Veraval the ancient port is threatened by SLR
But the builders won’t stop to use every inch of land…
Close to Veraval is famous Somnath temple-it may be
isolated
Surat is heavily built in low lying estuarine areas of
Narmada
On central west coast ,time is running out for such areas of Mumbai
Low lying areas of Mumbai are vulnerable to SLR
What would be the fate of these Mumbai slums when the sea
moves in here?
Residents from such slums in Mumbai need to be urgently
rehabilitated to higher grounds
Alibag is built just 2-7 m above sea level and may face a deluge..
Small coastal towns in Konkan like Malvan are also vulnerable
Panaji may loose the densely populated low lying areas to the sea
Densely populated Salcete coast would be submerged
Naval base may not be able to save coastal parts of Karwar
Unsustainable growth of Mangalore spells dooms after SLR
Coastal parts of Mangalore are vulnerable to SLR
Most of Kochi-Cochin is just 5-8 m above sea level-densely settled…
Overbuilt Chennai may be vulnerable to SLR
SLR may impact coastal wetlands and backwaters like Pulicat
The coastal parts of Vizag may face the brunt of SLR
Kolkata with many low lying areas needs to wake up to SLR
challenge…
No future for Diamond harbour after SLR!
 Tasks ahead…

• How coastal urban India would plan for the worst

case scenarios?.
• What is the present status of planning and
preparedness and what are the possibilities for
ensuring sustainable urbanization and disaster
mitigation?.
• How much time we have before the disaster
strikes?.
• What role the government, the media, the civil
society could play?.
A judicious and effective use of
the disaster management bill,
2005 is necessary for research in
vulnerability studies, capacity
building, new land use policies
etc.
 "disaster management" means a continuous and
integrated process of planning, organising, coordinating
and implementing measures which are necessary
or expedient for

(i) prevention of danger or threat of any disaster;

(ii) mitigation or reduction of risk of any disaster or its severity or
consequences;
(iii) capacity-building;
(iv) preparedness to deal with any disaster;
(v) prompt response to any threatening disaster situation or
disaster;
(vi) assessing the severity or magnitude of effects of any disaster;
(vii) evacuation, rescue and relief;
(viii) rehabilitation and reconstruction;
 References
• Kamat, N. (2001). Urbanization in
Goa: the past 2000 years: a short
review, Govapuri, April-June 2001,
pp.12-21
• Census of India reports, 1971 to 2001
• Govt. of Goa, economic survey-2001
to 2007
• Google earth images form
earth.google.com
• Regional plan, Goa, 2001, 2011
• United nations reports and research
papers
Dhananyavad

Thank you