SCGOP Strategy Memo: "Be Aware of Poll Bias" To: All Concerned Parties From: Matt Moore, SCGOP

Executive Director Greetings, Some of you might have seen a questionable poll that attempts to cast Governor Nikki Haley in an unflattering light: http://www.thestate.com/2011/12/11/2076002/sc-voters-souring-on-governor.html Since the governor and her team are busy recruiting jobs and growing our state's economy, I'd like to set the record straight regarding this particular poll. This poll is highly questionable. It has President Barack Obama polling 12 points better in South Carolina than he's doing nationally. Do you honestly think Barack Obama is massively more popular in South Carolina than he is nationwide? I don't. A few thoughts: 1. When we poll, it's important to not ask biased questions that could influence the responses. Yet here, the pollster asks, "Do you think it is possible to address national budget concerns without any tax increases on any groups, or would some tax increases be required to address national budget concerns?" This is a clear case of bias by omission. Why not ask questions about other options like cutting spending or growing our way out of the national economic doldrums? Or, why not formulate a variety of questions like "Do you believe the economic stimulus has worked?" that are much more neutral? The pollster doesn't sound very objective to me. 2. This pollster has not released the "crosstabs." Those would help us to understand exactly "who" was polled. Without the crosstabs, this kind of poll cannot be "peer reviewed" by experts. What if the sample does not accurately reflect South Carolina's diverse makeup? For example, the sample might have included too many in a certain age group, too many Democrats, etc. Governor Haley is doing an extraordinary job in bringing new businesses to South Carolina. Bridgestone, Continental, and other major companies are now bringing tens of thousands of new jobs to South Carolina. But those jobs are not in place yet, so the tough economy reflects (sometimes unfairly) on every political leader. South Carolina will come roaring back in the next couple of years because Governor Haley is helping to recruit jobs at a record pace. Without a doubt, the Obama administration is slowing down our progress. Obama has tried to shut down Boeing, he's trying to stop our new immigration law, and Obamacare is going to break our state budget. Any governor would have a hard time dealing with all

of that, but I'm proud that Governor Haley is standing up for Boeing, she's fighting for our immigration law, and she joined the fight to get the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Obamacare. When these battles are won, we'll all be much better off. ###