TO: FROM: DATE: RE:

Interested Parties Paul Maslin, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) December 12, 2011 Poll Results in Wisconsin Congressional District 1

Our poll,1 taken among 405 likely November 2012 voters in Wisconsins First Congressional District, from October 27-November 2, 2011, shows that challenger Rob Zerban is well-positioned to give incumbent Paul Ryan the toughest fight of his career, with a very good chance to upset him. The partisan numbers in CD1 are dead evenBarack Obamas favorable rating is 48-48 and Scott Walkers is 48-49. (See Figure 1) Also, Obama is tied, 42-42, against potential GOP nominee Mitt Romney in a head-to-head match-up. These results point to an intensely fought battle throughout next year, likely to produce very close results in CD1. Though the district was solidly Republican in 2010, neither political party now enjoys any advantage. But the worst rating in the poll goes to the U.S. Congress, which receives only a 19% approval mark, with 74% disapproving, (See Figure 2) nearly mirroring the national right direction/wrong track finding of 18% vs. 70%. Figure 1: Favorability Ratings Figure 2: U.S. Congress Job Approval Rating

Survey Methodology: From October 27-November 2, 2011, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) conducted a telephone survey of 405 randomly-selected registered voters in Wisconsins First Congressional District who are likely to vote in the November 2012 Presidential Election. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level; the margin of error for population subgroups will be higher.
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Summary of Wisconsin 1st Congressional District Survey Results Page 2 All of this background has weakened incumbent Paul Ryan, who used to enjoy electoral and image majorities well over 60%. Ryans favorable rating has declined to 54% positive, his job rating is 55% and his reelect is 54%all this before the beginning of an active campaign against Ryan. When voters hear positive information about Rob Zerban and Paul Ryan, Ryans support weakens further to 52%. Rob Zerbans description receives a better than 3 to 1 positive reaction. And, after respondents hear one additional paragraph description linking Ryan to the Republican leadership in Congress and describing his authorship of the House budget plan, his support falls below 50% and his favorable rating becomes like Obamas and Walkersdead even at 46% positive and 46% negative. And, as Figure 3 shows, Rob Zerban trails Ryan by only six points after this very brief exposition of Ryans signature idea, 49-43%, with undecideds holding nearly unanimously negative views of Congress in general and more than 80% saying they have either a negative or neutral feeling toward Ryan at the end of the poll. Figure 3: Ryans Share of the 1st Congressional District Vote Type of Vote Initial Ryan Re-Elect After Positive Candidate Profile Statements After Ryan Budget Plan Statement Percent of Vote for Ryan 54% 52% 49%

There is no question that with sufficient resources, Rob Zerban has an excellent opportunity to unseat Paul Ryan in what will undoubtedly be a very close race.