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Telecom sector
GSM net subscriber addition continues to be low
GSMs net subscriber addition data reported by Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), which demonstrated a slight recovery in September and October 2011, grew by just 1.1% mom in November 2011. Net subscriber addition number was very low at 6.7mn in October 2011, down by 6.3% mom, taking the total GSM subscriber base to 632.1mn. GSM subscriber net addition data was weak across all telecom operators, except Idea and Uninor.
Operator-wise highlights
In November 2011, net subscriber additions were largely led by incumbents, with Idea (again maintaining its lead position) and Aircel reporting a 32.6% and 37.7% mom increase in subscriber addition run rate, respectively. Idea and Aircel added 2.2mn and 0.7mn subscribers, taking their total subscriber base to 104mn and 61mn, respectively. This led to an increase in Ideas subscriber market share to 16.5% from 16.3% in October 2011. Among other incumbents, Bharti Airtel (Bharti), Vodafone and BSNL reported almost stagnant mom net subscriber addition at 1.0mn, 0.9mn and 0.6mn, respectively. Among new operators, Uninor again emerged as a pleasant surprise by adding 1.9mn subscribers (highest amongst all GSM operators except Idea). This led to a jump in its subscriber market share to 5.4% in November 2011 from 5.2% in October 2011. Other new operators continued to struggle to gain market share in net subscriber addition. Videocon again reported a net decline of 0.6mn subscribers in its subscriber base during the month. Net subscriber addition of S Tel and Loop Mobile declined by 51.3% and 9.0% mom, as these operators added merely 0.02mn and 0.01mn subscribers, respectively.
Circle-wise highlights
In November 2011, net addition run rate of all circles (except Metro circle) declined, the highest being for A circle, which reported addition of 2.0mn subscribers, down 17.1% mom from 2.4mn in October 2011. This led to a decrease in net subscriber addition market share of A circle to 29.2% from 33.1% in October 2011. Net addition run rate of Metro circle rebounded to 0.7mn in November 2011 from 0.2mn in October 2011, with Idea reporting the highest net addition of 0.3mn subscribers, followed by Vodafone and Bharti, which reported net subscriber addition of 0.08mn and 0.04mn, respectively. Subscriber addition run rate of B circle declined by 15.6% mom to 2.9mn in November 2011 as against 3.4mn in October 2011, while subscriber addition in C circle remained flat mom at 1.0mn.
Recommendation summary
Company Bharti Airtel Idea Cellular RCom Reco. Neutral Neutral Neutral CMP (`) 342 83 68 Tgt. price (`) Upside (%) FY2013E P/BV (x) 2.1 1.9 0.4 FY2013E P/E (x) 13.8 23.4 11.8 FY2011-13E EPS CAGR (%) 24.8 13.9 (5.8) FY2013E RoCE (%) 12.7 10.7 3.3 FY2013E RoE (%) 14.9 8.2 2.8
(mn)
Feb-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
May-11
(mn)
(mn)
120 90 60 30
20 15 10 5 0 33 7 1 33 7 1 34 7 1 33 6 1 33 6 2 3 4 6 2 34 5 2
May-11
Jun-11 Bharti
Jul-11 Vodafone
Aug-11 Idea
Sep-11 BSNL
Oct-11 Aircel
Nov-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11 Stel
Aug-11 Uninor
Sep-11 Videocon
Oct-11
Nov-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Aug-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Loop Mobile
DB Etisalat
(mn)
In November 2011, net subscriber addition stood the highest for Idea, which added whopping 2.2mn subscribers, taking its total subscriber base to 104.0mn. Majority of its subscriber additions came in from Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, AP, MP and WB circles. Amongst other incumbents, Bharti, Vodafone, BSNL and Aircel added 1.0mn, 0.9mn, 0.6mn and 0.7mn subscribers, taking their total subscriber base to 174.7mn, 146.8mn, 92.1mn and 61.0mn, respectively. Among new telecom players, Uninor emerged as a pleasant surprise by adding 1.9mn subscribers. Other new operators continued to struggle to gain market share in net subscriber addition. Videocon again reported a net decline of 0.6mn subscribers in its subscriber base during the month.
(mn)
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 May-11 Jun-11 Bharti Jul-11 Vodafone Aug-11 Idea Sep-11 BSNL Oct-11 Aircel Nov-11
Ideas highest subscriber addition in November 2011 led to a jump in its net subscriber addition market share to 32.5% from 23.0% in October 2011. The companys overall subscriber market share also increased to 16.5% in November 2011 from 16.3% in October 2011.
11.3 7.3
20.8 36.6 6.9 7.2 23.0 13.0 13.3 Oct-11 Others 10.1 8.3 32.5 13.9 14.4 Nov-11
43.6
40 20 0
25.7 May-11
(20)
Subscriber market share of Bharti declined to 27.6% in November 2011 from 27.8% in October 2011; however, subscriber market share of Vodafone, BSNL and Aircel remained almost constant mom at 23.2%, 14.6% and 9.6% in November 2011, respectively. Uninor, on the back of strong subscriber additions, managed to increase its subscriber market share to 5.4% in November 2011 from 5.2% in October 2011.
(%)
40 20 0 May-11 Jun-11 Bharti Jul-11 Vodafone Aug-11 Idea Sep-11 BSNL Oct-11 Nov-11 Aircel Others
28.3
28.3
28.1
28.1
27.9
27.8
27.6
In November 2011, net addition run rate of all circles (except Metro circle) declined, the highest being for A circle, which reported addition of 2.0mn subscribers, down 17.1% mom from 2.4mn in October 2011. This led to a decrease in net subscriber addition market share of A circle to 29.2% in November 2011 from 33.1% in October 2011. Net addition run rate of Metro circle rebounded to 0.7mn in November 2011 from 0.2mn in October 2011, with Idea reporting the highest net addition of 0.3mn subscribers, followed by Vodafone and Bharti, which reported net subscriber addition of 0.08mn and 0.04mn, respectively. In November 2011, 2.0mn subscribers were added in A circle as against 2.4mn in October 2011, taking its total subscriber base to 217.1mn. In A circle, Idea reported the highest net subscriber addition of 1.06mn subscribers, followed by Uninor, Bharti, Aircel and Vodafone, which added 0.68mn, 0.26mn, 0.20mn and 0.15mn subscribers, respectively. Subscriber addition run rate of B circle declined by 15.6% mom to 2.9mn in November 2011 as against 3.4mn in October 2011, while subscriber addition in C circle remained flat mom at 1.0mn.
(mn)
160 120 80 40 May-11 Jun-11 Metro Jul-11 A circle Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 B circle C circle 73 84 73 86 73 91
87
74
88
74
89
74
90
75
37.5
39.4
37.0 41.8
48.7
48.3
43.4
(mn)
(%)
1.9
40 22.7 20 19.9 0 May-11 (20) Metro A circle B circle C circle 7.6 Jun-11 (2.3) Jul-11 35.1 43.7 40.1 7.6 Aug-11 29.9 9.0 Sep-11 33.1 3.1 Oct-11 29.2 10.4 Nov-11
Sep-11 C circle
Valuation
For Bharti and Idea, net subscriber additions were along expected lines, thus our estimates remain unchanged. The driving force for the overall sector is higher tariff rates as well as increasing use of value-added services, which will lead to higher ARPUs for all players, thereby aiding profitability. Bharti continues to be a better bet due to its low-cost integrated model (owned tower infrastructure), potential opportunity to scale up in Africa, established leadership in revenue and subscriber market share and relatively better KPIs. However, overall we remain Neutral on the telecom sector.
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