International Trade Risks

(Credit Insurance and Opportunity for Non Life Insurance Market in India)

There are risks and costs to a program of action, but they are far less than the long-range risks and costs of comfortable inaction - John .F. Kennedy

NAME: Manjunath Reddy .M BATCH: Fall Winter 2005-2007 REFERENCE NO: BF05F033. FACULTY GUIDE: Prof. Tareque Laskar

-1-

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I take this opportunity to thank all those people who helped me to complete the thesis. Firstly, I would like to thank Mr.Jayachandran, Dean, The Indian Institute of Planning and Management, Bangalore, who provided us the opportunity to carry out this project report. I take this opportunity to express my profound gratitude to Professor Mr. Tareque Laskar and Mr. Samuel Jesurathinam, who had initiated me into this project and also guided us from time to time to fulfill the same, I am thankful to them for their continuous help and constructive criticism throughout the project and in bringing out this thesis. I am grateful to my ever encouraging friends and family members, without their support I would not have been able to complete this thesis work.

-2-

THE INDIAN INSTITUTE OF PLANING AND MANAGEMENT BANGALORE

CERTIFICATE OF GUIDANCE This is to certify that the project report entitled Credit Insurance and Non life insurance market in India submitted by the following student of Indian Institute of Planning and Management, Bangalore guidance. has been carried out under my

The matter presented is their original work and has been submitted to the college as part of partial fulfillment of their MBA degree.

Prof. Tareque Laskar

Name of the student: Manjunath Reddy .M

-3-

CERTIFICATE ACKNOWLEDGEMENT LIST OF TABLES

I II III

LIST OF CHARTS

IV

CHAPTER 1.........................................................................................................................................................................6 1. INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................................................................6 1.1 CREDIT INSURANCE:............................................................................................................................................................6 1.2 WHAT IS CREDIT INSURANCE?...............................................................................................................................................7 1.3 HISTORY:..........................................................................................................................................................................8 1.4 STAGES TO THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF CREDIT INSURANCE:.................................................................................................8 1.5 CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT:.................................................................................................................................................9 1.6 COLLECTION:...................................................................................................................................................................10 2. TYPES OF TRADE CREDIT INSURANCE:...............................................................................................................10 2.1 NEED FOR TRADE CREDIT INSURANCE TO THE COMPANIES:...................................................................................................11 2.2 RISKS COVERED FOR TRADE CREDIT INSURANCE:................................................................................................................11 2.3 COST FOR CREDIT INSURANCE ...........................................................................................................................................12 3. FACILITATION OF CREDIT INSURANCE AS SALES OF FINANCIAL TOOLS .............................................12 4. CREDIT INSURANCE MARKETS:..............................................................................................................................13 5. WORLDWIDE CREDIT INSURANCE MARKET.....................................................................................................13 6. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: ................................................................................................................................14 6.1 INFORMATION SOURCES:....................................................................................................................................................15 6.2 MAIN OBJECTIVE OF THE RESEARCH: ................................................................................................................................15 7. ABOUT THE COMPANY AND THE GROUP:...........................................................................................................15 7. 1 COFACE GROUP: ....................................................................................................................................................16 7.2 HISTORY:........................................................................................................................................................................16 7.3 CONSOLIDATED TURNOVER (IN MILLIONS) .........................................................................................................................17 7.4 MAJOR INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS IN CREDIT INSURANCE: .....................................................................................................17 7.5 MAJOR DOMESTIC PLAYERS IN CREDIT INSURANCE:..............................................................................................................17 7.6 COFACE BUSINESS LINES:.............................................................................................................................................20 7.7 COFACE INDIA................................................................................................................................................................21 7.8 PRODUCTS AND SERVICES:..................................................................................................................................................22 CHAPTER 2.......................................................................................................................................................................24 8. NON LIFE INSURANCE MARKET IN INDIA:.......................................................................................................24 8.1 KEY INFORMATION:..........................................................................................................................................................24 8.2 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT:..................................................................................................................................................25 8.3 INSURANCE ENVIRONMENT:................................................................................................................................................25 8.4 SUMMARY:......................................................................................................................................................................26 8.4.1 Economic growth despite political uncertainty..................................................................................................26 8.4.2 Substantial reform progress in non-life ..............................................................................................................26 8.4.3 Growth projections point towards high growth...................................................................................................27 9. LOOKING FORWARD TO THE MARKET IN 2010.................................................................................................29

-4-

9.1 POLITICS........................................................................................................................................................................30 9.2 REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT..............................................................................................................................................30 9.3 FACTORS AFFECTING INDIAS GROWTH PROSPECTS..................................................................................................................36 9.4 INDIAS WORKING POPULATION IS PROJECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY:.....................................................................................37 9.5 INDIA IS SET TO HAVE THE WORLDS LARGEST SURPLUS WORKING POPULATION BY 2020:...........................................................37 9.6 INDIA POSSESSES A LARGE POOL OF SCIENTISTS, IT SPECIALISTS, TECHNICIANS AND ENGINEERS:....................................................38 9.7 THERE ARE SEVERE INFRASTRUCTURE BOTTLENECKS IN INDIA..................................................................................................41 10. THE INDIAN NON-LIFE MARKET 2007:...............................................................................................................................45 10.1 Analyzing the Market Today:................................................................................................................................48 10.2 Nationalisation......................................................................................................................................................49 10.3 Detariffication will change the dynamics of the market:......................................................................................50 10.4 Legacies of a tariffed product market:..................................................................................................................52 10.5 Considerable Growth despite Tariffed Market:....................................................................................................53 10.6 Competition is seen as a vital component in the success of the Indian non-life market.......................................54 10. 7 The eight private companies have been established since 2000..........................................................................58 10.8 Foreign players:....................................................................................................................................................60 10.9 Significant premium growth for private companies:............................................................................................61 10.10 Potential growth areas for foreign companies:..................................................................................................63 11. BROKERAGE IN INDIA IS STILL IN ITS INFANCY.......................................................................................................................65 11.1 Brokers Face Significant Cost Disadvantages Compared To Agents:.................................................................66 11.2 Brokers Have So Far Had To Focus Their Efforts on Niche Segments:..............................................................67 11.3 Over the Medium Term, Conditions Are Expected To Improve For Brokers Future developments:...................67 11.4 Brokers will have to demonstrate value to clients: ..............................................................................................68 12. PUBLIC COMPANIES: GIC AND THE PSUS:...........................................................................................................................69 12.1 PRIVATE COMPANIES:......................................................................................................................................................72 13. CLASS-BY-CLASS ANALYSIS:...............................................................................................................................................76 13.1 Motor:...................................................................................................................................................................76 13.2 Property:...............................................................................................................................................................78 13.3 Marine:.................................................................................................................................................................81 13.4 Liability:................................................................................................................................................................83 14. THE INDIAN NON-LIFE MARKET 2010:...............................................................................................................................83 14.1 Regulatory drivers:...............................................................................................................................................84 14.2 Detariffication:.....................................................................................................................................................84 14.3 Foreign ownership:...............................................................................................................................................85 14.4 Broker distribution:..............................................................................................................................................85 14.5 Growth drivers:.....................................................................................................................................................86 14.6 Personal lines insurance premium growth drivers:..............................................................................................87 14.7 Commercial insurance premium growth drivers:.................................................................................................87 15. A SIGNIFICANT PRICE WAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS....................................................................................90 15.1 Price competition is set to increase:.....................................................................................................................90 15.2 Cross-subsidisation is expected to cease:.............................................................................................................90 15.3 Rationalisation of premium structures is expected:..............................................................................................91 15.4 Growth in demand is expected to be more than met by increased capacity.........................................................93 15.5 Constant premium growth:...................................................................................................................................93 16. DETARIFFICATION IS LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF ADJUSTMENT:........................................................................94 16.1 Adjusting for detariffication:................................................................................................................................94 16.2 Motor third-party (TP) ........................................................................................................................................95 16.3 Motor own damage...............................................................................................................................................96 16.4 Property:...............................................................................................................................................................96 16.5 Health:..................................................................................................................................................................97 16.6 Marine:.................................................................................................................................................................97 17. FORECASTING GROWTH BY CLASS........................................................................................................................................98 17.1. Slower growth in 2007 ........................................................................................................................................................................................99 17. 2. Exponential growth from 2009 onwards.............................................................................................................99 17. 3. Changing product mix.........................................................................................................................................99 17.4 Motor and Health Are Forecast To See the Most Significant Growth...............................................................100 18. SUGGESTION:.................................................................................................................................................................101

-5-

.........................................................................................................................................................................................101 19. CONCLUSION:.................................................................................................................................................................102 .........................................................................................................................................................................................102 20. BIBLIOGRAPHY...............................................................................................................................................................103 21. GLOSSARY.....................................................................................................................................................................104

CHAPTER 1 1. INTRODUCTION
Insurance in India started without any regulation in the Nineteenth Century. It was a typical story of a colonial era: a few British insurance companies dominating the market serving mostly large urban centers. After the independence, it took a dramatic turn. Insurance was nationalized. First, the life insurance companies were nationalized in 1956, and then the general insurance business was nationalized in 1972. Only in 1999 private insurance companies have been allowed back into the business of insurance with a maximum of 26% of foreign holding. In what follows, we describe how and why of regulation and deregulation. The entry of the State Bank of India with its proposal of bancassurance brings a new dynamics in the game. We study the collective experience of the other countries in Asia already deregulated their markets and have allowed foreign companies to participate. 1.1 Credit Insurance: Credit insurance improves Overall credit management Practice and corporate value

-6-

More than 80% of daily business-to-business transactions are on credit terms. This is the most important form of short-term financing within the corporate sector. Trade debts are one of the main assets on most corporate balance sheets. They can represent up to 35% of total assets. Credit management is therefore crucial for companies and can be an important strategic or competitive tool for capturing new business. Better credit terms improve supplier-customer relationships and signal financial health and reputation. Granting a payment delay to customers can cause cash flow or financing difficulties for many firms, especially for small ones. 1.2 What is credit insurance? Credit Insurance is a risk management product offered by governmental Export Credit Agencies and some private insurance companies to business entities wishing to protect their balance sheet asset, accounts receivable, from loss due to credit risks such as protracted default, insolvency, bankruptcy, etc. Trade Credit Insurance is similar to, and may include a component of political risk insurance which is offered by the same insurers to protect assets in foreign countries from loss due to currency issues, political unrest, expropriation, etc. Credit insurance provides companies with coverage for outstanding receivables, protecting against risk of protracted default or insolvency of the buyer. From the selling company's point of view there are three main advantages of buying credit insurance: Risk Transfer: Sellers transfer the risk associated with default by their buyers to the insurance companies. Because credit insurers manage risks by holding diversified portfolios and back these risks with large amounts of equity, they are far more suited to assume the risks than the selling company. Services: Credit insurance includes a large package of services. These include not only the continuous monitoring of the creditworthiness of the insured's customers, but also servicing the account receivables, or suggesting payment and delivery conditions. In Europe, the process of preparing the

-7-

insurance contract can take up to a year before the credit insurer and the insured actually finalize their contract. Furthermore, the credit insurer supports the insured in debt collections. Facilitate Financing: Firms with credit insurance are able to get better credit terms from banks. Some banks require credit insurance before they provide financing.

1.3 History: Credit Insurance was born at the end of nineteenth century, but it was mostly developed in Western Europe between the first and Second World Wars. Several companies were founded in every country; some of them also managed the political risk to export on behalf of their State. Credit Insurance is a term used to describe both Trade Credit Insurance and Credit Life Insurance. Credit Life Insurance is a consumer purchase, often sold with a big ticket purchase such as an automobile. The insurance will pay off the loan balance in the event of the death or the disability of the borrower. Although purchased by the consumer/borrower, the benefit payment goes to the company financing the purchase to satisfy a debt. Trade Credit Insurance is purchased by business entities to insure their accounts receivable from loss due to the insolvency of the debtors. This product is not available to private individuals. Over the '90s, a concentration of the Trade Credit Insurance market took place and four big companies became the main players of a market focused on Western Europe, but rapidly expanding towards Eastern Europe, Asia and the Americas. 1.4 Stages to the Internationalization of credit insurance: There have been three stages to the internationalization of credit insurance. In the first stage, credit insurers were mono liners, focusing almost exclusively on domestic policyholders. There was generally one domestic and one (often state-owned) export credit insurer in each country. A characteristic of credit insurance is that the risk is not the insured (the seller) but the insured's customer -8-

(the buyer). Hence, the local credit insurers mainly monitored the domestic risks and exchanged information with the other foreign credit insurers when insuring exports. In a second stage, credit insurers insured foreign companies selling to buyers located in the credit insurer's home country. The insurer served foreign clients, but dealt with domestic risks. In the current stage, credit insurers sell insurance in several countries, which requires local expertise in these countries to monitor trade credit risk. This is very challenging. for credit insurers since they are small compared to a typical global company. To control monitoring costs, credit insurers have entered into local joint ventures with each other and have become closely aligned with or integrated by multilane insurers with foreign affiliates. 1.5 Credit risk management: The seller must evaluate the creditworthiness of prospective clients before deciding to trade with them. The trade credit department adds value to its company by providing information to the marketing department on the credit quality of targeted clients. In addition, the trade credit department can establish the maximum line of credit to be extended to a buyer. The internal information costs increase with the heterogeneity of the client base. External agencies - including credit insurers can provide country, sector and company-specific information. The credit insurer has an information advantage over a single company since it has more information on company-specific behaviour on payments for receivables. The information base covers more products over a longer time horizon than the singlecompany information base of a trade credit department. Trade credit departments can purchase credit information from credit insurers or other firms with company credit history databases. The trade credit department must decide whether or not to self insure or transfer some of the trade credit risk. It provides value by managing the risk associated with the company's accounts receivable. Part of the trade credit risk can be transferred to a credit insurer or to the capital market, via a credit derivative. Credit insurers are now beginning to provide non-traditional risk transfer products, such as derivatives. -9-

1.6 Collection: Once the goods or services are delivered, the accounts receivable need to be converted into cash on a timely basis. This requires collection management and in case of non-payments, legal actions or other types of collection activities. Many of these functions can be "outsourced" to external specialist companies, although certain credit insurers have also begun to provide these services. Companies can contract to have all collection of receivables done by an external firm. This could include dealings with debt collectors and credit insurers if there is a problem collecting the payments. NCM, for example, has decided to purchase collection agencies to provide an extra service to its clients and additional revenue for itself.

2. Types of Trade Credit Insurance:

Credit insurance can be classified into domestic and export credit insurance. In the past, credit insurance companies specialized in one type or the other, but most of them now offer export as well as domestic credit insurance. The boundaries between export and domestic credit insurance are becoming blurred due to the internationalization of companies.

Whole turnover insurance covers the entire portfolio of receivables of a company, not selected risks. By taking the whole portfolio of risks the insurer avoids insuring only bad risks or adverse selection. Specific account policies do not insure the whole portfolio, but protect the insured against a selected group of customers or a single transaction.

In a proportional insurance contract, the insured receives indemnification for every insured loss. The amount of indemnification depends on the retention, i.e. the non-insured percentage. In a nonproportional insurance contract (e.g. excess of loss or catastrophe insurance), the contract provides a - 10 -

layer of protection for losses beyond a certain level. This type of cover is appropriate for firms that want to insure themselves against the risk of single large losses.

The deductible under a whole turnover for a proportional contract is usually between 5% and 20%. The deductible depends on the quality of the firm's trade receivable accounts and is set such that the insured still has an incentive to efficiently manage its trade credit relationships.

2.1 Need For Trade Credit Insurance to the Companies: Cash in advance and letters of credit are no longer competitive terms in the international marketplace. Creditworthy foreign companies, accustomed to buying on open account from their other suppliers, are going to expect the same terms from you. Your customers in emerging markets, on the other hand, may face scarce capital and high interest rates, making it difficult or impossible to order your products without credit terms. You need to extend competitive terms to grow your international business, but what happens if you don't get paid? Your foreign customers could file bankruptcy, run into cash flow problems, suffer from currency devaluations, or fail to pay you for a variety of other reasons. You can protect your foreign receivables against non-payment risks with an export credit insurance policy.

2.2 Risks Covered For Trade Credit Insurance: Export credit insurance protects your foreign receivables against commercial and/or political risks which could result in non-payment of your invoices. Commercial risks take the form of buyer insolvencies (e.g. bankruptcy) or protracted defaults (slow payment). These problems could occur for many reasons, such as fluctuations in demand, natural disasters, or general economic conditions in your customer's country. Political risks include war, riots, and revolution, as well as currency - 11 -

inconvertibility, expropriation, and changes in import or export regulations. All of your export receivables can be insured under one multiple-buyer policy, or in some cases you can purchase keybuyer or single-buyer coverage. Export sales of all types of products may be covered, regardless of content or where the products are manufactured. Any kind of exporter can apply for receivables insurance, including manufacturers, distributors, dealers, etc. Your foreign customers don't need to be huge corporations or government agencies; any buyers can be considered as long as they are creditworthy, as determined by financial information, trade references, or in some cases simply your company's own ledger experience. 2.3 Cost for Credit Insurance Premium rates are based on the terms you extend, the spread of your buyer and country risks, and your previous export experience. The cost is low, typically a small fraction of one percent based on sales volume, in most cases considerably less than the fees charged for letters of credit. Rates may be calculated as a function of your shipment volume, country and buyer credit limits, or outstanding receivables. Premiums are payable monthly, quarterly, or annually. Whether or not you pass this incremental expense on to your customers, the price of the coverage is insignificant compared to the additional business you can win by extending competitive credit terms overseas.

3. Facilitation of Credit Insurance as Sales of Financial Tools

(a) Increase Your Export Profits: Grow your export sales by making it more economical for your foreign customers to purchase larger quantities. Shipping larger orders helps you negotiate better pricing from your suppliers, make longer manufacturing runs, and transfer inventory carrying costs overseas. (b) Penetrate Your Target Markets: - 12 -

Open new markets which your company might otherwise perceive as too risky for extending credit terms. The opportunity to establish markets are in emerging economies has never been greater. (c) Get More From Your Distributors: Negotiate stronger overseas representation by offering competitive terms to your foreign distributors. Provide incentives to keep more of your products in the supply chain, increasing your market share and local brand recognition.

(d) Enhance Your Borrowing Capacity: Obtain more favorable financing by including your insured foreign receivables in your borrowing base. Export credit insurance makes your international receivables more attractive to your bank or other lenders. You can assign policy proceeds to the lender of your choice.

4. Credit Insurance Markets:

The European credit insurance market has not experienced rapid growth in recent years, though an expected increase in export growth is likely to improve its performance over the next five years. Opportunities for credit insurers exist in the US, Asia and Latin America, where the market penetration is lower. Aside Tom extending the global reach of credit insurance, credit insurers have additional opportunities to provide new services and products to additional and existing markets.

5. Worldwide credit insurance market

Worldwide credit insurance premiums are estimated to be approximately USD 4.2 billion. The largest regional market is Western Europe, with a market share of 84%, followed by the US with 12%. Within Western Europe, the largest markets are Germany, France and the UK The prevalence of credit insurance in Western Europe is striking compared to other lines of business. In contrast, the 1998 share of the total non-life market for all of Europe was 33%, compared to 43% in the US and 15% in Asia. Traditionally, domestic and export credit insurance have been viewed as distinct product lines. In - 13 -

1998, approximately 60% of total credit insurance was related to domestic and 40% to export business.4 In the past, national governments have been involved in export credit insurance as a means to promote the local economy but today, most of the state activities are restricted to long-term export credit insurance, whereas short- and medium-term business is underwritten by the private sector. Given the internationalization of many companies' activities, the distinction between domestic and export sales has become less important. For example, a subsidiary of a German company located in Mexico and delivering goods to Germany might also buy credit insurance Tom Germany. Formally, the subsidiary is acquiring export credit insurance, but for the German credit insurer it is like domestic insurance. Within the European Monetary Union, the distinction becomes even less relevant because of the widespread geographic presence of many companies and the single currency.

6. Research Methodology:
The method of research used in the report is DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH. Descriptive research is used to obtain information concerning the current status of the phenomena to describe "what exists" with respect to variables or conditions in a situation. The methods involved range from the survey which describes the status quo, the correlation study which investigates the relationship between variables, to developmental studies which seek to determine changes over time. This type of research is also a grouping that includes many particular research methodologies and procedures, such as observations, surveys, self-reports, and tests. Statement of the problem Identification of information needed to solve the problem Selection or development of instruments for gathering the information Identification of target population and determination - 14 -

Collection of information Analysis of information Generalizations and/or predictions.

6.1 Information Sources: Information has been sourced from books, newspapers, trade journals and white papers, industry portals, government agencies, trade associations, monitoring industry news and developments, and through access other databases. 6.2 Main Objective of the Research: As Coface is entering one of the worlds largest non life insurance market, which already has presence in reinsurance segment in India. As the Indian market is already facing stiff competition after the detariffication of Insurance in the year 2000, because of more and more new entrants in to the segment. With booming Indian economy and a growth rate of 8% to 9% annually and new sectors and industries are entering in and manifold increase in FDI to India. As more and more Indian companies are

exporting goods and services to many countries and even to the new countries and also the increase of imports from various countries.

The objective of the report is to know the Indian non-life insurance market and the potential or market available for the non-life insurance products and services by 2010, the regulatory framework and present bottlenecks & Detariffication , present major players, new entrants, Distribution Channels & Broker distribution Channels , potential growth areas, etc

7. About the company and the group:

New Entrant to the Indian Non Life Insurance Market: - 15 -

About the company and the group 7. 1 Coface Group: Coface is a French MNC Company and worldwide largest provider of Credit Insurance and Credit Management Services. It has over 60 years of experience in the field of credit insurance and credit management and more than 83,000 customers in 99 countries across five continents. Coface operates subsidiaries or branch offices in 58 countries, which represent over 80% of the worldwide trade. It also offers local services in 93 countries through its partners in the Credit Alliance network, united by shared credit risk management systems (the Common Risk System) and staffed by more than 4,600 employees serving 85,000 clients. Coface's mission is to facilitate global business-to-business trade by offering companies four product lines to help them manage, finance and protect their receivables (i.e. all credit granted for a period of 30 days, 60 days or sometimes more to other companies in the course of their commercial relations):

7.2 History: 1946 Coface is founded as a specialised export credit insurance company, managing its own products and State guarantees for French exports. 1992 Coface begins its international expansion into the United Kingdom and Italy (with Viscontea Coface), paving the way for acquisitions in Germany (AK Coface) and Austria (KV Coface) in 1996. It sets up the Credit Alliance network of credit insurers. 1994 Coface is privatized. 1995 The Credit Alliance network is extended to credit information. 1999 Coface extends its service offering to factoring by setting up AKCF in Germany.

- 16 -

2000 Coface launches @rating, adding a worldwide insurable trade debt rating system to its credit information service. 2002 Natexis Banques Populaires becomes Cofaces majority shareholder. 2004 Coface acquires Ort from Reuters and combines this company's expertise with that of Coface Scrl to become France's leading credit information provider. It also forges international partnerships, particularly in the area of corporate ratings in Russia Banking Association, and in Japan with Nexi, the public- sector credit insurer. 7.3 Consolidated turnover (in millions) Consolidated turnover rose 4.3% to 1,130.8 million in 2004 from 1,084.5 million the previous year. This growth was distributed evenly between the first and second halves of the year. At constant group structure and exchange rates the increase in turnover came to 1.2%. Excluding the various prior year adjustments that had an adverse impact on 2004 turnover, growth at constant group structure and exchange rates stood at 2.9%. 7.4 Major International Players in Credit Insurance: 1. Atridius 2. Euler Hermes 3. Coface 4. Credit Guarantee Insurance Corporation 5. Gerling Kredit and 6. NCM

7.5 Major Domestic Players in Credit Insurance: 1) The Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India Limited (ECGC) is a company wholly owned by the Government of India. It provides export credit insurance support to Indian exporters and is controlled by the Ministry of Commerce. Government of India had initially set up Export Risks - 17 -

Insurance Corporation (ERIC) in July 1957. It was transformed into Export Credit and Guarantee Corporation Limited (ECGC) in 1964 and to Export Credit Guarantee of India in 1983. Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India Limited was established in the year 1957 by the Government of India to strengthen the export promotion drive by covering the risk of exporting on credit. Being essentially an export promotion organization, it functions under the administrative control of the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Department of Commerce, Government of India. It is managed by a Board of Directors comprising representatives of the Government, Reserve Bank of India, banking, insurance and exporting community. ECGC is the fifth largest credit insurer of the world in terms of coverage of national exports. The present paid-up capital of the company is Rs.900 crores and authorized capital Rs.1000 crores. 2) ICICI Lombard - ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Limited is a 74:26 joint venture between ICICI Bank Limited and the Canada based $ 26 billion Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited. ICICI Bank is India's second largest bank; while Fairfax Financial Holdings is a diversified financial corporate engaged in general insurance, reinsurance, insurance claims management and investment management. Lombard Canada Ltd, a group company of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited, is one of Canada's oldest property and casualty insurers. ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company received regulatory approvals to commence general insurance business in August 2001. 3) Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Company Limited is a joint venture between Bajaj Finserv Limited (recently demerged from Bajaj Auto Limited) and Allianz SE. Both enjoy a reputation of expertise, stability and strength. Bajaj Allianz General Insurance received the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) certificate of Registration on 2nd May, 2001 to conduct General Insurance business (including Health Insurance business) in India. The Company has an authorized and paid up capital of Rs 110 crores. Bajaj Finserv Limited holds 74% and the remaining 26% is held by Allianz, SE. As on 31st March 2008, Bajaj Allianz General Insurance maintained its premier position in the industry by garnering a premium income of Rs. 2578 crore, achieving a growth of 43 % over the last year. Bajaj Allianz has made a profit before taxes of Rs. 167 crore and is the first company to cross the Rs.100 crores marks in profit after tax by generating Rs. 105 crores.

4) IFFCO-TOKIO General Insurance (ITGI) is Indias trusted insurance company. It simplifies customers life by providing them tailor made products and quality services, thus helping them take informed investment decisions. It is a joint venture between The Indian Farmers Fertilizers Co-operative (IFFCO) and its associates and Tokio Marine and Nichido Fire Group, the largest listed insurance group in Japan. - 18 -

ITGI was incorporated on December 4, 2000 and has its head office in Gurgaon, Haryana. We are among India's top three private-sector general insurance companies with 100 offices and a country-wide network of 480 exclusive point of presence.
ITGI's sound financial management has been achieved in a period of fast-paced growth. Our GWP has grown from Rs. 896 crores in 2005-6 to Rs. 1152 crores in 2006-07.

INDIAN COMPANIES WITH FOREIGN PARTNERSHIP Indian Partner International Partner Alpic Finance Tata CK Birla Group - 19 Allianz Holding, Germany American Int. Group, US Zurich Insurance, Switzerland

ICICI Sundaram Finance Hindustan Times Ranbaxy HDFC Bombay Dyeing DCM Shriram Dabur Group Kotak Mahindra Godrej Sanmar Group Cholamandalam SK Modi Group 20th Century Finance M A Chidambaram

Prudential, UK Winterthur Insurance, Switzerland Commercial Union, UK Cigna, US Standard Life, UK General Accident, UK Royal Sun Alliance, UK Allstate, US Chubb, US J Rothschild, UK Gio, Australia Guardian Royal Exchange, UK Group Legal & General, Australia Canada Life Met Life

Vysya Bank ING Source: U.S. Department of State FY 2001Country Commercial Guide: India

7.6 COFACE Business Lines: 1. Credit information and corporate ratings, 2. Receivable management, 3. Credit insurance, 4. Factoring. - 20 -

Coface also offers three other business lines: 1. Guarantee insurance, 2. Receivables management training, 3. In France, public procedures management for export guarantees given by the French State. In 2004, the following credit insurance companies joined as Credit Alliance: KECIC (Kazakhstan), ITGI and ICICI Lombard (India), Hong Leong Assurance and Axa Behrad (Malaysia) and AXA Assure credit (France), further extending the range of expertise offered by the network. 7.7 Coface India The changing face of the new India has opened a wide variety of opportunities for companies to develop their business operations. However the expansion of activities from a local stage to the international arena is coupled with a larger number of more complex decisions, many of which involve substantial risk. The Coface Info India (Credit Report Division) addresses the needs of today's companies by providing full credit management solutions to build and protect business relationships The companys core activities cover the entire cycle from customer profiling to credit reports and business information reports. This facilitates Indian and overseas clients to do business-to-business trade. Its online credit reports are available at state-of-the-art database ICON.

Focus Your choice partner in Minimizing Your Business Risks & Maximizing Your Business. Through Coface India Credit Management, Indian companies benefit from the expertise of a group operating in 70 countries. The company has pursued the development of local partnerships and - 21 -

fronting arrangements capable of offering domestic credit insurance to local companies and Indian subsidiaries of Coface Group partners in their markets. Coface India offers 2 product lines: Credit insurance, and Credit information.

In 2004, ITGI and ICICI Lombard (India) credit insurance company joined as Credit Alliance, further extending the range of expertise offered by the network. As a result, the same high quality information is received on the target companies, whether they are around the corner or around the world. This helps these companies stay current, improve your decision-making processes and protect your business interests. Coface Indias information services are delivered through Cofanet our internetbased credit information management system. 7.8 Products and services: 1. Credit Report Coface Indias approach to collecting and evaluating company information ensures that you the customer companies receive up-to-date, reliable information. Coface reports are competitively priced and offer flexible service plans to meet clients needs. Request information on any business, anywhere in the world 2. @rating
Credit assessment at the pace of business. These days, a company often has to make rapid decisions

Receive reports via the Internet, email or fax Rely on Customer Service Center for full support. Receive reports in various International languages

about the financial security of a potential trading partner, and whether a company should grant

- 22 -

a line of credit. The company may also need to demonstrate its creditworthiness to suppliers and customers. 3. The @rating scale Cofaces simple, globally used rating scale indicates a companys financial soundness, reflecting the acceptable maximum level of exposure on a single transaction:
R $10,000 @ $20,000 @@ $50,000 @@@ $100,000 @@@@ $100,000 and above (Customized Credit Opinion) NR Not rated, but indicating no known risk X Not rated, but indicating possible risk

Ratings are continually monitored so you always receive reliable information for accurate decisions. Coface offers the following @rating solutions: 3.1 Cofanet Services Through Cofanet, its online credit management tool, you will be able to conveniently access both @rating Credit Opinions and business credit reports 24/7. With features such as Portfolio Analysis and Data Export, Cofanet serves its clients with expedited efficiency.

3.2 @rating Quality Label Helps in proving company's creditworthiness on demand. The Quality Label program certifies reliability and improves the clients ability to negotiate better credit terms. Credit insurance Top Players Ranking in 2005 in m (1) Player 2005 revenue Rank - 23 Country Market Share

EULER HERMES ATRADIUS + CyC COFACE CESCE AIG MAPFRE QBE Others Total WW

1747 1421 921 130 125 125 96 242 4807

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

France Netherlands France Spain USA Spain Australia

36,3% 29,6% 19,2% 2,7% 2,6% 2,6% 2,0% 5%

CHAPTER 2 8. Non Life Insurance Market In India:

8.1 Key Information: Official Name Capital Population Languages languages - 24 Republic of India New Delhi 1.10 billion (2006 EST.) World Rank: 2

English (official), Hindi 30% and 14 other

Area Climate temperate in north

3.29m sq km

World Rank: 7

Varies from tropical monsoon in south to

8.2 Business Environment: GDP (2006) Real GDP growth rate (2006) GDP per capita (2006) GDP (by sector) (2006) USD 4,042bn 8.5% USD 3,700 World Rank: 155 World Rank: 4

Agriculture: 20%, Industry: 19% Services: 61%

Unemployment rate (2005) Public debt (% of GDP) (2005) Budget (2005) 52.8%

7.8%

Revenues:

USD

109.4bn

Expenditures: USD 143.8bn Industries: Textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, transportation, Equipment, cement, mining, software

8.3 Insurance Environment: Premium levels (2006) USD 6.0bn in 2006

Nominal annual premium growth 13% (during 2006) Premium density (2005) (= premiums per capita) India: USD 4.4 per capita

South & East Asia: USD 21.4 per capita, OECD Average: USD 1,106.2 per capita Regulator: Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority www.irdaindia.org - 25 -

Main non-life industry: Main life industry association:

General Insurance Council association Life Insurance Council

8.4 Summary: Despite political uncertainties, Indias economy is thriving. Assisted by this growth, significant progress has been made in the non-life insurance market since liberalisation, and the pace of change has stepped up in 2007 as a result of detariffication. 8.4.1 Economic growth despite political uncertainty Whilst India prides itself on being the worlds largest democracy, the country is beset by political uncertainty. On the domestic front, Indias United Progressive Alliance coalition is considered to be inherently unstable. From an international perspective, relations with Pakistan are viewed as a risk, due to ongoing tensions in Kashmir. Following the implementation of reforms, Indias economy has been outperforming other economic blocks with the notable exceptions of China and Russia, and strong growth is predicted to continue over the medium term. Factors that have enabled this strong performance include Indias demographics, human capital, global integration, macroeconomic and fiscal stability, and its diversifying industries. However, inefficiencies such as infrastructure bottlenecks, the evolving regulatory environment and the overburdened legal system hinder Indias economy in performing as well as those of China and Russia. 8.4.2 Substantial reform progress in non-life Reform of the Indian non-life insurance market has progressed substantially since market liberalisation began in 2001. Whilst detariffication occurred in early 2007, the market remains heavily regulated, and its growth is hindered by the 26% cap on foreign ownership of insurers. Private insurers are relatively new entrants into the Indian market, but they already share over one-third of the market and are expected to increase their market share further as liberalisation continues. - 26 -

8.4.3 Growth projections point towards high growth The extent of the insurance market liberalisation process is the subject of ongoing debate. Detariffication is likely to be associated with a period of adjustment and predatory pricing. Already a sharp decrease in rates has been seen as a result of the January 2007 detariffication process. While it is difficult to project the behaviour of market players and responses of the IRDA, in the medium to long term, these reforms are expected to lead to more dynamic growth.
NON-LIFE PREMIUM INCOME INCREASED BY 106% BETWEEN 2000 AND 2005

The insurance environment in 2007 CHART: Premium levels (in billion USD)

CHART: Indexed premium levels (2000 = 100)

- 27 -

The Indian insurance market cannot be understood except in the context of its history of nationalisation and liberalisation. Reform of the Indian nonlife insurance market, which was nationalised in 1972, has progressed substantially since the turn of the century, and received an additional boost in 2007 with the Detariffication of key classes of business. Non-life premium income has increased by 106% since initial liberalisation in 2000, consistently outstripping global growth, as summarized by the indexed premium chart below. However, growth in Indias non-life market appears to have slowed to 13% in 2006 down from 18% in 2005. Despite Liberalization in 2000, the Indian MARKET REMAINS heavy regulated:

Despite the welcome reforms between 2000 and 2006, the Indian non-life market remains heavily regulated. Nonetheless, 2007 has so far been one of the most exciting years for the Indian insurance industry, with significant reforms taking place. Some key characteristics of the market are listed overleaf. Tariffs: Up until the end of 2006, tariffs remained in place across 70% of the market.3 Rates for property and motor were detariffed at the beginning of 2007. However, insurers will not be allowed to change the terms and conditions for existing products for up to 15 months post detariffication in an effort to avoid confusion during the initial stages. Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs): PSUs remain dominant with an estimated market share of over 60%. However, this share is reducing as a result of private sector competition. 26% FDI cap: Foreign entities must partner with an Indian entity in order to form an insurer and are limited to a maximum 26% stake in the joint venture. While the current government has suggested increasing the FDI cap to 49%, the timing of this change remains unclear as it is likely to trigger further policy discussions within the centre-left government coalition.

- 28 -

 Agents: Around 80% of premiums are still distributed through the traditional medium of the direct sales (or marketing) agent. Brokers have failed to gain a significant market share largely due to regulations that have put them in a disadvantaged situation. Compulsory cessions: There is only one local reinsurer, the 100% government-owned GIC. In April 2007, the proportion of compulsory cession to the GIC was reduced from 20% to 15%.

The Extent of Future Liberalisation is the subject Of an Ongoing Debate

9. Looking forward to the market in 2010

The Indian insurance market is likely to change significantly over the next three years largely due to regulatory changes. In addition, premium growth is being driven by other factors such as the growing consumer class, increased foreign direct investment, infrastructure development, and an increased awareness of catastrophe exposure. Despite significant positive changes, the insurance market must still face the challenge of poor customer perceptions and the danger that the pace of reform will slow. Several significant structural changes are expected in the market as a result of the drivers discussed above:

Price competition has already begun to increase and is likely to continue to do so for the next 18 to 24 months.

The practice of cross-subsidisation is likely to be phased out as riskbased pricing is used increasingly for all products.

- 29 -

As Indian insurers build a profitable portfolio, they are likely to have increased access to the international reinsurance markets.

Finally, rising demand for insurance is likely to be met by increased capacity as foreign insurers look to access this growing market. One conclusion is certain the Indian non-life market is set to grow dramatically over the next few years. The simplest forecasts suggest that premium income could double in five years to reach USD 11.6bn in 2010.

When the structural changes above are taken into consideration, this growth becomes exponential, with relatively slow growth in 2007 rising to rapid growth by 2010

The Efficiency of Indias Regulator Environment is Questionable: 9.1 Politics India prides itself on being the world's largest democracy modelled on the British parliamentary model. India is a large country, not only with regard to its size but also in terms of culture, languages, religions and contrasting convictions. Much of the complexity of Indias politics and regulatory environment is dictated by the difficulties of these competing interests. 9.2 Regulatory environment Despite its reputation, India performs well in terms of control of corruption, rule of law, and voice and accountability, when compared to the regional average. However, this does not disguise the fact that the country is often beset by political volatility, manifest by comparatively low levels of political stability. Compared to Regional Peers, India Scores High in Terms of Rule of Law and Accountability CHART: Governance indicators4 versus regional average (2005)

- 30 -

Notwithstanding the countrys heterogeneous society, there is an established and bind institutional framework, which includes a legal system, capital market regulators a banking supervisors. However, the efficiency and efficacy of these institutions is questionable, and there are significant gaps within the Indian regulatory environment such as the lack of data protection legislation In addition to relatively high levels of corruption there is a labyrinth of regulation caused by relations between the central and state governments, which must be simplified if initiatives such as reform of the power sector the development of special economic zones are to succeed. A major effect of these challenges is to hinder the speed of legislative change, resulting in very slow legislature. "We have to make our economic systems as transparent and as open as possible. We must focus on vital issues like corporate citizenship, market opportunities and intellectual property rights." Narayana Murthy, Infosys Technologies, India, WEF Summit, (2004) India Has Anindependant Judicial System That Resemblence Thise Of Anglo- Saxon Countries : There Is a Large Backlog of Cases Clogging Indias Judicial Process: India has an independent judicial system, with its concepts and procedures resembling those of AngloSaxon countries. The Indian judicial system is a single integrated system of courts, which administer both Indian and individual state laws. While the judicial process is considered fair, a large backlog of - 31 -

cases and frequent adjournments can result in considerable delay before a case is closed. However, matters of priority and public interest may be dealt with expeditiously, and interim relief may be allowed in other cases, where appropriate. Although there is evidence to suggest that Indians are becoming more aware of litigation, especially in motor third-party cases, the general level of liability claims awareness amongst Indias population is low. Consequently, the demand for corresponding insurance protection remains modest.

Though Unstable, Indias Current Government is expected to Remain in Office: Domestic politics: In a dramatic turnaround in its fortunes, the Indian National Congress emerged as the largest party following 2004s elections. This party formed a governing alliance, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), with a number of smaller regional parties, as well as utilizing the support of a large bloc of communist parties known collectively as the Left Front. The surprise result was attributed to the alignment of the incumbent government with the countrys burgeoning middle classes and their interests rather than those of the mass rural poor. Indias turbulent politics are complex and often lead to short-lived administrations at national and state level. There is also often a wide gulf between the commitments made by governments and the measures that the legislature and bureaucracy can actually implement. The UPA coalition is expected to remain in office even though the coalition is viewed as inherently unstable and progress on economic reform is predicted to be erratic. The pace of Indias economic liberalisation will be determined by the leaderships ability to pursue the countrys social agenda. Legislative changes, however, tend to be passed very slowly in India due to the bureaucratic and leadership hurdles that need to be overcome. Moreover, Indias pluralist political system can - 32 -

complicate and thus further hinder the reform process.

Tensions Have Eased Between India and Pakistan over Kashmir: India Will Never Achieve Its Full Potential without a Durable Solution in Kashmir Foreign relations: Indias foreign relations have in the past been dominated by its difficult relationship with Pakistan and, more recently, with Bangladesh. Indias relations with both the US and China have, however, improved over the past few years. Pakistan: Relations between India and Pakistan have always been viewed as poor, with the two countries fighting three wars since partition in 1947 and narrowly avoiding a fourth in 2002. Relations, however, improved noticeably during the premiership of the Bharatiya Janata Partys (BJPs) Atal Behari Vajpayee, who initiated peace talks with Islamabad. India and Pakistan are now several years into a peace process that has made huge strides in reducing tension, but it is based on a bargain both sides suspect the other of breaking: that Pakistan will rein in the terrorists operating from its soil and that India will negotiate in good faith over the future of Kashmir. Thus significant tensions still exist and the core issue of Kashmirs status remains unresolved. It is argued, however, that until India is fully reconciled to Pakistan, and until Pakistan has wrestled its own particular demons to the ground, India will never achieve its full potential, either economically or geopolitically. Moreover, it is argued that neither of these two things can happen without a durable solution in Kashmir.

Bangladesh: Relations with Indias other large Muslim neighbour, Bangladesh, although largely warm, started to deteriorate in 2001 when the BJP took power. Although not fully restored, relations have somewhat - 33 -

improved under the current Congress Party-led government. An issue of contention is that Bangladeshis feel that India plays the role of a big brother towards its smaller neighbours. Nonetheless, both nations have co-operated on a number of issues, such as flood warnings and preparedness.

China: Despite lingering suspicions remaining from the 1962 Sino-Indian War and continuing territorial/boundary disputes in Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh, Sino-Indian relations have improved gradually. Both countries have sought to reduce tensions along the frontier, expand trade and cultural ties, and normalise relations. In 2003, India formally recognized Tibet as a part of China and, in 2004, China recognised Sikkim as a part of India.

The US sees its relationship with India as a counterbalance to Chinas expanding power: Indias link with the US is improving. The US administration led by president George Bush is concerned that the fast-expanding economic power of China poses a threat to the US global strategic dominance and, as a consequence, welcomes a closer relationship with India as a counterbalance. In upgrading ties with India, it is significant that Mr. Bush has avoided an endorsement of Indias ambitions to gain a permanent seat on the United Nations (UN) Security Council.

A Permanent Membership on the UN Security Council Is a High Priority for India: The question of Indias permanent membership on the UN Security Council is a high and pressing priority for New Delhi. All elements along the Indian political spectrum are united in the belief that their countrys flourishing transition from colonialism, its successful incubation of democracy amid incredible cultural and linguistic diversity, its large population and growing economic prowess justify global recognition through membership in the most important institution of international governance, - 34 -

the UN Security Council. Germany, India, Japan and Brazil, known as the G4, and the African Union are amongst those lobbying for coveted permanent member status. A working group on reform set up under the UN General Assembly in 1993 has made little progress on the matter, with a lack of consensus over potential candidates for such membership, despite warnings from the previous Secretary-General Kofi Annan that the lack of reform could weaken the councils standing in the world. India belongs to all the major international organisations, including the UN, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Labour Organization, International Monetary Fund, World Health Organization, World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Commonwealth.

For Decades, Indias Economy Underperformed Relative to Its Potential Economy: For decades, India's economy underperformed relative to its potential. Socialist policies and a powerful bureaucratic apparatus led to red tape that stifled entrepreneur-led development. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, a major reorientation of trade was needed. This, in combination with additional external factors, led to a balance-of-payments crisis at the start of the 1990s, which provided further stimulus for a wave of economic reforms. Following the implementation of these reforms, for which todays Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is widely regarded as the architect, growth surged through to the mid-1990s and the beginning of this decade with India outperforming other large economic blocks, with the notable exceptions of China, throughout the whole decade and Russia in 2005. Following reforms, growth surged and made a step change upwards in 2002 CHART: Indexed nominal GDPs of major economies (1997 2006)

- 35 -

In addition to the change in its economic development policies, Indias business environment and the countrys growth prospects are influenced by a number of characteristics. These characteristics demonstrate that whilst the economy is growing and developing, it is still held back by inefficiencies and bureaucracy. These challenges will need to be tackled if Indias economy is to continue to perform well in the future. 9.3 Factors affecting Indias growth prospects Favourable Factors: Demographics Improving Human Capital Globally Integrating Economy Challenging but Improving Unfavorable Factors: Infrastructure bottlenecks Evolving regulatory environment Transparent but overburdened system Macroeconomic and fiscal stability A Mix of sheltered manufacturing and competitive services sectors

legal

- 36 -

9.4 Indias working population is projected to grow significantly: Demographics: Economic growth depends on, amongst other factors, having large pools of high-quality labour supply. India has a young population of approximately 1.1 billion, the second-largest in the world after China, increasing at roughly 1.5% per year.13 Latest figures from the UN Population Division reveal that Indias working population is projected to grow significantly over the next 15 years as highlighted by he chart below. This signifies that there will be a significant growth in labour supply over the next 15 years.

CHART: Age group projections (2000 2020)

Research by the Boston Consulting Group reveals that India is set to have the largest surplus working population (15 to 59 years of age) by 2020 when compared to all other major economies as shown by the chart below. Whilst this may lead to new job creation, this could also lead to greater unemployment and/or lower wages. 9.5 India is set to have the Worlds largest surplus working population by 2020: An Estimated 210 Million Indians Have Been Lifted Above the Poverty Line - 37 -

CHART: Surplus working population by country in 2020

Further research indicates that, between 1980 and 2000, an estimated 210 million Indians were lifted above the poverty line (the threshold of which is USD 1.5 in earnings per day), which is an impressive feat given that, during the preceding 20 years, the number of poor in

India increased by about 93 million. As such, in 2000, 28% of the Indian population was below the poverty line, as compared to 36% in 1994. This suggests that the outcomes of Indias surplus population are likely to be positive.

9.6 India possesses a large pool of scientists, IT specialists, technicians and engineers: Human capital: Nevertheless, economic growth does not merely depend on the quantity of labour available, but increasingly on the quality of labour input. In this light, India still has a long way to go, not least if compared with its regional peers. Even though India has comparatively low levels of overall adult literacy of around 61%, the country produces a large number of skilled workers in various fields. It - 38 -

possesses a large pool of scientists, trained Information Technology (IT) specialists, technicians and engineers, many of whom speak English fluently. There are roughly 380 universities and 1,500 research institutions around the country, from which 200,000 engineers, 300,000 non-engineering technicians and 9,000 PhD students graduate annually. In other words, while there is yet to emerge a broad class of highly skilled workers, there are islands of depth in particular sectors. The Indian government is fully aware of the role that science and technology can play in developing the countrys economy. "You cannot be industrially and economically advanced unless you are technologically advanced, and you cannot be technologically advanced unless you are scientifically advanced."
C. N. R. Rao, the Prime Minister's Science Advisor, (2004)

More Than 100 It and Science-Based Firms Have Opened R&D Labs in India during the Last Five Years: Tier one Indian IT providers such as Infosys, Wipro and TCS have continued to thrive (reporting revenue growth of around 40% for the second quarter of 2006). Over the past five years alone, more than 100 IT and science-based firms have opened research and development (R&D) laboratories in India. 22 India is also reported to be set to become the regional hub for pharmaceutical R&D, manufacturing and exporting.

Indias Trade Volume as a Share of Gdp Is Low In Contrast To Other Major Asian Countries Globally integrating economy: India has made significant inroads in opening its economy since it joined the WTO in 1995. There are, however, still remnants of its inward-looking development strategy. Indeed, Indias trade volume as a share of GDP is low in contrast to other major Asian countries, and its import tariffs remain comparably high. Moreover, capital account restrictions, in particular, those applying to foreign direct - 39 -

investment (FDI), are still numerous, although recent policy directives are laying the ground for greater FDI. With the debate about Indias emergence as a global leader in service exports dominating the news, it may sometimes be overlooked that India remains a relatively closed economy. However, the prospects for greater world integration are promising, since there is a political consensus on the need to further liberalise trade and capital account restrictions. Moreover, the size and potential for growth of the domestic market is one of the more important factors responsible for the strong interest of foreign investors in India. Recent discussions on expanding trade agreements, with China, Singapore and Thailand for example, attest to Indias resolve to gain further access to world trade. The recent lowering of duties for nonagricultural products from 20% to 15% and the proposed further reduction in duties to 12.5% for the 2006-2007 budget are steps towards opening the economy further. As India becomes a key part of the global supply chain, some of its companies will emerge as strong performers in the international market. Those that succeed will likely retain elements of their traditional business cultures (such as low cost advantages) while also adopting a more international outlook, exporting their best goods and services while absorbing global best practice.

Inflation has Declined in Recent Years, but Increased Fiscal Discipline is Vital Challenging but improving monetary and fiscal stability: Inflation has declined significantly in recent years, stabilising at a level of roughly 5% after consistent double-digit inflation prior to the 1990s. But the monetary authoritys success in maintaining relative price stability going forward will require improvements in fiscal policies. Indias large fiscal deficit, a legacy of the expansionary fiscal policies pursued by the government in the late 1980s, I acknowledged to be its ongoing weakness. Public deficits since then have been very high at around 10% of GDP. Indias poor public finances28 have placed significant constraints on growth. The so- 40 -

called development expenditure, ie capital expenditure on areas such as infrastructure, has fallen constantly as a percentage of GDP since the early 1990s. At the same time, nondevelopment expenditure, particularly interest on government debt, has risen continuously. The government has taken some initial steps toward fiscal consolidation. Indeed, the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act was passed in 2002, with a goal of bringing down total deficit and revenue deficit8 to 3% and 0% of GDP, respectively, by 2008-2009.29 The introduction of the national value added tax (VAT) system in April 2005 is also expected to contribute to fiscal consolidation.

9.7 There are severe infrastructure bottlenecks in India Infrastructure bottlenecks As a consequence of persistent shortfalls in public revenues, public investment has fallen continuously over the years, leading to severe infrastructure bottlenecks. Indeed, despite having one of the most extensive transport systems in the world, this sector continues to suffer from acute capacity and quality constraints. As such, growth is expected to hit severe infrastructure constraints in the near future. China spent USD 260 billion or 20% of its GDP on power, construction, transportation, telecommunications and real estate in 2002. In comparison, India spent just USD 31 billion or 6% of GDP. Chetan Ahya, Chief Economist, Morgan Stanley, (2004)

India Requires a Total of USD 150bn to Finance Its Infrastructure Development: The government is faced with tough choices in allocating investment resources. According to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, India requires a total of USD 150bn in the short term to finance its infrastructure development (rail, airport and seaport). Given this resource requirement, it is not possible to fully fund infrastructure development from the governments budgetary resources. - 41 -

Accordingly, the Indian government has introduced the facility of viability gap funding to support public-private partnership initiatives in infrastructure sectors. Infrastructure is one of three strategic high-priority areas for India (the others being the public sector and agriculture). Lack of infrastructure is a key reason why Indias poorest regions remain impoverished, and this has impeded the rapid expansion of manufacturing.

Service sector bias: Indias service sector accounts for over 50% of the economy and, in recent years, has been responsible for the majority of economic growth. There are a number of key characteristics of the Indian economy that contribute to higher growth in its service sector compared to its industry. 1. Firstly, highly restrictive labour laws have prompted industry to outsource activities so a significant proportion of industrial growth is counted as service sector growth. 2. More profoundly, intrusive levels of market regulation and relatively high tariff structures have deterred both domestic and foreign investment into industrial sectors, hindering the growth of large-scale manufacturing companies geared towards exporting. 3. FDI growth has significantly lagged in comparison with other emerging markets such as China, while growth in trade volumes relative to GDP has remained muted. 4. Finally, the financing demands exerted by recurring, large fiscal deficits have crowded out

- 42 -

5. private investment. As a result, Indias growth model has been unique, with declines in the primary agricultural share of GDP absorbed by growth in services, while the manufacturing sector has remained largely static.

India Has Built Up a Diverse Industrial Sector with Major Industries Industrial sector: India has built up a diverse industrial sector with major industries, including automobiles and auto ancillaries, iron and steel, aluminum, textiles and garments, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and petrochemicals, oil and gas and other hydrocarbons, electricity, telecommunications, IT and business process outsourcing (BPO) services, healthcare and biotechnology. Today, the country is emerging as a leading sourcing base for global players in auto and auto ancillaries, pharmaceuticals, IT and BPO services, research and development, and engineering services. However, the picture is far from uniform and is best understood when juxtaposing three distinct sectors:

Indias Technology, Software and Outsourcing Sector is Highly Competitive Global leader competitive IT and outsourcing sector: At the high end of Indias productivity spectrum is the IT, software and BPO sector. Initially starting with back office services such as call centres and tax work, Indias outsourcing platform has risen up the value chain and now includes research and development in high tech sectors such as biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. It is a big success story, having created hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars worth of exports. As a new sector and one whose potential the government failed to recognise early on it has avoided stifling regulation. IT, software and outsourcing companies are - 43 -

exempt from Indias labour regulations that govern working hours and overtime in other sectors. FDI has been allowed to flow into the IT industry, whereas foreign investment is prohibited and/or restricted in most other sectors. By 2002, it already accounted for 15% of all FDI in India.32 Without this foreign money, it is debatable whether the sector could have taken off.

Fast improving transforming but still sheltered automotive industry In the middle of the spectrum is the auto industry, which has seen dramatic change since the government began to liberalise it in the 1980s. FDI, which has been permitted since 1994, has made it possible for output and labour productivity to soar. Indeed, the industry has been growing at a rate of approximately 30% and the industry exported USD 1bn in 2003-2004 compared to USD 760m in 2002-2003.33 Prices have fallen and, even as the industry has consolidated, employment levels have held steady due to robust demand. However, the continued tariff structure for finished cars continues to shelter domestic automakers from global competition making the sector less efficient than it would otherwise be.

Indias Consumer Electronic Sector Is Still Burdened by Tariffs, Making It Uncompetitive Laggard burdened consumer goods markets: At the low end of the spectrum is the consumer electronics sector, which, despite the lifting of FDI restrictions in the early 1990s, is still burdened by tariffs, taxes and regulations, with the result that Indian consumer electronics goods can neither compete on price nor on quality with international competitors. As a result of a total ban on FDI and extremely low labour productivity and performance, Indias food retailing industry is considered to be the least competitive sector in the subcontinent. - 44 -

The Indian Non-Life Market Is Ranked 27th Largest In the World 10. The Indian Non-life Market 2007: USD 4.85bn worth of premiums were written in the Indian non-life insurance market in 2005, making India the 27th largest market in the world in terms of non-life premium.34 The Indian non-life market currently lags behind that of its main economic rival, China, predominantly as a result of the Chinese economys greater urbanisation, number of automobiles and emphasis on manufacturing. China also began its insurance liberalization process earlier. Nonetheless, Indias growth performance is very strong relative to that of the world as a whole.

India Is Growing At Roughly Twice the Rate of the Total Global Insurance Market CHART: Indexed premium levels (2000 = 100)

Worldwide non-life premiums have grown significantly over the past few years; a key contributory factor to this was the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center. However, the growth of non-life premiums in India has outstripped average global rates every year for the past decade and has demonstrated a surge since market liberalisation in 2000. - 45 -

Liberalisation Has Led to a Marked Increase in Indias Premium Levels CHART: Premium levels* (in billion USD)

High Regulation May Be a Major Reason for the Low Level of Insurance Penetration: Despite outgrowing the global non-life market over the past decade, non-life penetration levels in India remain extremely low at just 0.6%.37 Whilst low penetration in a developing economy is to be - 46 -

expected, the Indian position falls well below that expected by Sigmas S-Curve, which links nonlife penetration to income per capita. A significant contributing factor in the disparity between Indias actual penetration / GDP per capita and that expected by Sigmas research (The S-Curve Gap) is the highly protectionist regulatory position adopted by the government until reforms were adopted in 2000.38

Non-life penetration levels are lower in India than would be expected

CHART : Penetration vs. GDP per capita The S-Curve (2003)

Current insurance market reforms and continued high economic growth would appear to provide a strong platform from which to drive premium development in the Indian market and, thereby, to close the countrys S-Curve Gap in the short to medium term.

- 47 -

10.1 Analyzing the Market Today: The current state of the Indian insurance market is so heavily influenced by the history of nationalisation and liberalisation, that it cannot be understood outside of that context. The remainder of this section will initially consider the historical development of the market and then analyse the process of liberalisation in four main categories: products, market players, distribution and reinsurance. Finally, the impact of these liberalisation dynamics will be analysed on a class-by-class basis. This will set the scene for looking forward to 2010 in the following section.

The First Insurer in the Indian Market Was Established In 1850 Historical context Colonial era : Indias first general insurance company, Triton, was established in 1950 and was owned and operated by the British. In 1938, the Insurance Act was passed. This was the first legislation specifically dealing with the supervision of insurance companies. Prior to this, general insurance firms had fallen under the broad auspices of the Companies Act (1866).

CHART: History of the Indian insurance market (1850 2007)

- 48 -

The Non-Life Industry Was Not Initially Nationalised Following Independence The non-life market was eventually nationalized in 1972 following many years of tariff-setting: 10.2 Nationalisation Following independence in 1947, the Indian government implemented an economic model based on the Soviet system of national planning. Insurance was not seen as strategically important and so was not initially nationalised. In 1950, the Insurance Act of 1938 was amended to set up a Tariff Committee, which fell under the control of the General Insurance Council of the Insurance Association of India the Tariff Committee was so influential that it soon became known as the Rate Maker. The Tariff Advisory Committee (TAC) replaced the Tariff Committee by statute in 1968. The new body was designed to be independent and scientifically driven in its rating approach. However, post nationalisation in 1972, the independence of the TAC came into question observers described the TAC as the handmaiden of the nationalised companies (senior management of these companies took the most senior positions on the TAC) as rates did not necessarily reflect market price. By 1972, general insurance in India was fully nationalised. Each of the 107 general insurance companies in India was assigned to one of the four subsidiaries of the General Insurance Corporation of India (GIC): National; Oriental; United India; and New India.

The market was reopened to competition in 2000 following an influential report Liberalisation: In 1991, economic liberalisation began under Manmaohan Singh. Three years later, the Malhotra Committee Report on the state of the Indian insurance industry was released. It recommended sweeping changes that would reactivate competition in Indian insurance. These recommendations - 49 -

were put into practice via the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority Act (IRDA 1999). In particular, the monopoly previously enjoyed by the GIC was removed. The act effectively reinstated the 1938 legislation. The following year, the first licences were granted to private companies. Detariffication began in 2005 with marine insurance, with rates for property and motor being detariffed in January 2007. Rates for property and motor were scheduled to be detariffed at the beginning of the year. However, insurers are not allowed to change the terms and conditions for existing products until 2008 in an effort to avoid confusion during the initial stages. The GIC reduced its compulsory session from 20% to 15% in April 2007.

Products: The subsequent section aims to give a brief overview of product dynamics, recent growth experience, detariffication and potential future growth areas. 10.3 Detariffication will change the dynamics of the market: The progress towards full detariffication of the non-life sector began in 1994 when insurance tariffs on personal accident and bankers indemnity were dismantled. Between 1994 and 2006, some progress was made towards detariffication in marine insurance. Nevertheless, motor, fire, workmens compensation and engineering risks remained tariffed accounting for around two-thirds of premium. As of January 2007, all classes of business except for motor third-party liability are no longer under price tariffs. Motor third-party liability has not yet been detariffed as it was thought that the poor pricing could be addressed separately. It is suggested that this final tariffed product will be liberalised in 2008, although that has not yet been confirmed. - 50 -

All Classes of Business, Except For Motor Third Party Liability, Are No Longer Under Price Tariffs
CHART: Detariffication roadmap (1994 2007)

x With the exception of insurance for large properties, the newly detariffed classes of business are still subject to some product restrictions, and the terms and conditions of existing products may not be altered. The regulator has argued that this is to prevent confusion in the market and has indicated that all product restrictions will be removed by April 2008. It is thought that insurers may be able to customise insurance products as early as October 2007, although these would still be subject to IRDA approval. In addition to product restrictions, insurers are not permitted to drop the price of a product by more than 49% in the case of fire risks and 20% in the case of motor own damage without the approval of the regulator. While this may not prevent a rise in price competition, it will certainly create - 51 -

an administrative barrier to rapidly falling prices.

10.4 Legacies of a tariffed product market: The latest round of detariffication is more significant than it may appear at first. Although the Indian insurance regulator (the IRDA) has been pursuing a policy of detariffication since 1994, around twothirds of all non-life premiums in the Indian non-life market remained tariffed until the beginning of 2007. Around two-thirds of the Indian market remained tariffed up until the end of 2006 CHART : Tariffed vs. non-tariffed market by class (2006)

Cross-Subsidisation and Product Bundling Were Used To Cope With the Tariffed Market: Until the end of 2006, only specialist commercial classes such as marine, aviation and professional liability had been fully detariffed leaving the large mainstream classes such as motor, fire and engineering tariffed. As the tariffs covered most of the market until very recently, their effects dominated the market, influencing the pricing of even non-tariffed products. - 52 -

Sophisticated insurance buyers are aware that insurers profit from hitherto tariffed lines such as fire and place demands on insurers to cut their rates in other ways. One method used by insurers to attract fire premiums has been the use of product bundling. This activity sees insurers bundling together tariffed products with non-tariffed products, with the insurer offering customers exceptional rates for their non-tariffed cover (e.g. marine cargo cover for USD 1) in the hope that this loss-making line is cross-subsidised by the tariff business and that they make a profit over the account as a whole.

10.5 Considerable Growth despite Tariffed Market: A strategy of bundling and cross-subsidisation has enabled the Indian insurance market to grow significantly in both tariffed (13%) and non-tariffed (15%) business when comparing half year figures for 2005 vs. 2006. Indias Non Tariffed Market in the 1 H 2006 Expanded By USD 144M (15%) When Compared To 1H 2005 CHART : Tariff vs non-tariff growth (1H 2005 vs 1H 2006)

It is significant that the non-tariffed products grew at a faster rate than tariffed products between 2005 and 2006. In particular, the non-tariffed classes of PA & healthcare, marine hull and liability experienced high growth rates as summarised by the chart below. - 53 -

CHART : Business classes premium and growth (1H 2006)

10.6 Competition is seen as a vital component in the success of the Indian non-life market Market players: Competition was reintroduced in 2000 with the licensing of the first private companies. Foreign investment was also allowed at the same time, but limited to 26% ownership. There were several reasons that prompted the Indian government to bring reform and competition to the insurance sector. 1. Firstly, while the public sector insurance companies made an enormous contribution in the spread of awareness about insurance and expanded the market, it was recognized that their reach was still limited, the range of products restricted and the service to the consumer inadequate. 2. Secondly, it was felt that the rapid economic growth witnessed in the 1990s could not be sustained without a thriving insurance sector

- 54 -

3. Thirdly, it was recognised that the vast potential of India could only be achieved if sufficient competition was generated and the Indian insurance sector was exposed to global economic developments. The insurance sector was therefore opened to private sector participation with provision for limited foreign equity participation in 2000. The Indian general insurance market can be divided into three types of organization: PSUs private companies and special institutions. There are four PSUs, eight new private sector companies, most of which are joint ventures with foreign insurers and two special institutions (one of which, the Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India Ltd, is solely concerned with export guarantee products while the other is Chennai-based Star Health, which is a standalone health insurance company.)

Since liberalisation, private companies have gained a 34.6% market share

CHART: Premium levels vs. market share by segment (2006)

The PSUs remain dominant in the general insurance sector, with a combined market share of 62.9%, while private companies had a combined market share of 34.6% in 1H 2006.

- 55 -

The special institutions segment only accounts for 2.5% of total market share and, as result, will be disregarded in the analysis below. The subsequent section is aimed at giving a high-level overview of both PSUs and private companies, with a focus on comparative strengths and weaknesses.

The Four Public Sector Insurers are Located in the Major Cities: Public sector undertakings (PSUs): The four major PSUs currently operating in the Indian general insurance market: National (Calcutta); Oriental (Delhi); United India (Madras); New India (Bombay). In practice, the PSUs tend to focus their efforts on maintaining a strong status and market position within their local region rather than competing with one another. Although New India is generally regarded as the most successful of the PSUs, the PSUs have the following common challenges: Sales focus (rather than underwriting): The tariff system, which has existed for a generation, has resulted in the lack of a need for insurance companies to underwrite. Additionally, PSUs have their own in-house sales agents for whom sales targets rather than underwriting are at the forefront of their activities. This position is now no longer sustainable, due to the phasing out of the tariff system during 2007.

Poor systems and the loss of staff to private insurers are key reasons for the decline of PSUs: Poor systems: The lack of competition in the Indian market, and the backing that the PSUs receive from government, has meant that these insurers had hitherto faced lower incentives to improve their levels of efficiency. Accordingly, sophisticated IT systems are currently lacking in this environment most PSUs continue to operate at a paper-based level. This is indicative of the inefficiency inherent within the Indian insurance market and provides a reason for generally poor customer satisfaction. - 56 -

Poor claims-paying record: There is a general perception within the Indian market that the PSUs either fail to pay claims or take far too long to do so. This reinforces the general publics perception of insurance as a tax rather than being of any economic value.

Staff leakage: The gradual loss of market share and competitiveness that the PSUs are currently experiencing, in conjunction with the higher monetary rewards on offer from private sector players, is leading to significant levels of high-quality staff leaving the PSU companies to join private competitors. Exposure to motor business: A further issue for the PSUs to consider is their substantial exposure to the poorly performing motor third-party liability sector.

The public companies high exposure to motor risks is A Cause for Concern

CHART: PSUs business class breakdown (1H 2006)

- 57 -

10. 7 The eight private companies have been established since 2000 Private companies: The eight new private companies are growing fast. They are generally run by experienced Indian managers and are strongly supported by foreign expertise. They are steadily building their customer base and, over time, they are expected to acquire an ever larger share of the market their share currently stands at 34.6%. Interviews in both London and India revealed that the new private insurers collectively exhibited a number of strengths, these included:

Private Companies Have Been Able To Choose the Highest-Calibre Staff from the PSUs:

Small and flexible: The private firms have smaller and less disparate workforces than the PSUs and are therefore able to respond quickly to changes in market conditions.

Good staff, systems, processes and data: Due mainly to their ability to pay higher salaries, the private companies have been able to choose the highest-calibre staff from the government-owned PSUs. The foreign partners involved in the new privately owned Indian insurance ventures have ensured that high-quality systems and processes have been implemented from the very beginning of their enterprise. This ensures that the companies are run using international industry best practice

- 58 -

standards to provide a higher quality of data. The business models, Customer service and staff are stronger in private companies Greater focus on underwriting: Although the sales function of the private companies is still extremely important to them, more emphasis is placed on maintaining sound underwriting procedures and high-quality back office processes than is seen in the PSUs. Strong claims-paying reputation: As a result of their greater efficiency and information capture, the privately owned insurers operating in the Indian market have developed a far better reputation than the PSUs for paying claims quickly and efficiently. Product focus: Aside from outperforming PSUs in terms of overall business growth, private companies have been able to build up a more favourable business mix. This is due to the fact that PSUs are not allowed to decline certain unprofitable business such as motor third-party.

Motor OD appears to have been chosen as an avenue for gaining market share for PRIVATE COMPANIES CHART: Private companys business class breakdown(1H 2006)

ICICI-Lombard and IFFCO Tokio are aggressively targeting personal lines business - 59 -

10.8 Foreign players: The ability of foreign insurers to participate in the Indian non-life insurance market is currently restricted to a 26% stake in a joint-venture vehicle with an Indian company. Even with this relatively low level of foreign participation, many of the worlds largest insurers (such as AIG, Allianz and RSA) have already entered the market. Despite their disadvantaged position, foreign capital providers have been able to influence strategy, product focus and speed of growth. As a result of this influence, there are growing differences between private companies. Tata AIG is a joint venture (JV) between the multinational Indian conglomerate Tata and American insurance giant AIG. The Mumbai-based Tata AIG intends to develop its retail book but has stated that it is looking for quality of business rather than quantity it is not prepared to compete on extremely low deductible business. It is estimated that Tata AIG has employed 1,500 direct sales agents specifically to target this business. Additionally, Tata AIG has embraced alternative channels that include bancassurance, corporate agency, brokers and direct marketing, which contribute significantly to premium growth. Tata is said to be a virtually silent partner in its venture with AIG. ICICI, on the other hand, is the main driver in its operation with Lombard. ICICI-Lombard and IFFCO-Tokio are aggressively targeting personal lines business, the intention being to grow market share quickly. Conversely, HDFC-Chubb announced that it intended to scale back its personal lines business and focus instead on commercial business and liability lines, particularly D&O. Since then, Chubb has exited from its Indian joint venture with HDFC. Bajaj Allianz has formed a strategic alliance with Karnataka Bank to launch two co-branded over-thecounter insurance products covering the health and home insurance sectors exclusively for the banks customers. Bajaj Allianzs success is due to its extensive branch network of more than 550 branches and more than 110,000 agents, which are estimated to contribute around 70% of total premiums. Cholamandalam-Mitsui is based in Madras and continues to focus on the mid-market small and - 60 -

medium-sized enterprise (SME) business from Southern India. Royal Sundaram is also based out of Madras and is said to maintain a stable book of business as well as strong brand recognition in financial lines. New JVs in the pipeline The IRDA approved in principle three new joint ventures in May 2007, DKV Apollo Insurance, Future Generali Life, and Future General.48 The first is a joint venture between Munich Res health insurance subsidiary and Apollo, a major Indian healthcare provider. The others see Generalis successful entrance into both the life and non-life markets. There are a further two stages of the application process before any of these companies are considered operational. According to an article in Asia Insurance Post, Bharti Enterprises and AXA announced that they have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to establish a joint venture company to launch general insurance business in India.49 The joint venture, which will be headquartered in Bangalore, is expected to commence operation in the second half of 2007, subject to IRDA, FIPB and other statutory approvals. Sompo Japan signed a joint venture agreement to establish a non-life insurance company with stateowned banks, Allahabad Bank and the Indian Overseas Bank, as well as the privately owned Karnataka Bank and the Dabur Investment Corporation in New Delhi. Finally, Munich Re is looking to establish a joint venture through its primary insurance arm, Ergo Versicherungsgruppe AG. Most recently, it has approached Larsen & Turbo and HDFC after failing to secure a joint venture with Bank of Baroda 10.9 Significant premium growth for private companies: When total figures are aggregated, the picture emerging is that IFFCO-Tokio, in particular, recorded spectacular growth figures of USD 148m (79%) during 1H 2006 vis--vis 1H 2005. Furthermore, the jump in premium growth for Reliance General of USD 66m almost quadrupled its premium underwritten when comparing the same periods. This was largely due to the fact that the company is - 61 -

now driving its retail business having previously mainly concentrated on commercial lines. Conversely, HDFC Chubbs premium declined over the same time period as summarised by the chart below.

Absolute premium growth has been lead by ICICI Lombard CHART : Absolute vs. percentage growth (1H 2005 vs 1H 2006)

Private companies are emerging as serious competitors: Despite the continued overall dominance of PSUs, private companies such as IFFCO Tokio,are emerging as serious competition not only in quality of products and services but also in terms of relative market size, which is illustrated best in the chart below. Legend Size of bubble is equivalent to 1H 2006 premium levels CHART: Premium development by Company (1H 2005 vs. 1H 2006) - 62 -

 USD 75m

Overall, private companies have therefore been building a book with significant focus on the more profitable fire, engineering and, lately, PA & health business.

Private Companies Are Focusing On the More Profitable Lines Such As Fire, Motor & Health CHART: PSUs vs. private companies class breakdown (1H 2006)

10.10 Potential growth areas for foreign companies: A small but significant portion of Indian business is also placed internationally. Some of the key areas - 63 -

of growth for foreign companies writing Indian (re)insurance are discussed below.

Aerospace and Space: Aviation insurance demand is being driven by the opening up of the local aviation market to private competitors. Space premium will continue to benefit from the use of India as an alternative launch pad for space programmes. Catastrophe reinsurance: The huge discrepancy between economic losses vs. insured losses in recent tragedies has highlighted the need for catastrophe cover. As people and business grow richer, it is expected that demand for this cover will increase. According to the IRDA, India is said to be ranked among the top 50 countries suffering economic losses due to natural disasters. Most of the losses are uninsured. In India, the penetration of Catastrophe Insurance is under 0.5%, whereas in Turkey, it is to the tune of 17%.Foreign reinsurers are in demand because the GIC does not want to take on 100% of the risk. Mega and project risks: Risks with a total insured value above INR 15bn (USD 350m) are outside the scope of the tariff market and are generally placed internationally. The mega risk policy is a policy designed for big buyers of insurance, such as refineries and other plants with heavy concentrations of risk. Due to limited capacity in India, these risks are typically insured only after reinsurance support is finalised. Under the mega risk policy, these plant owners, instead of purchasing insurance at the tariff rates, could shop around for the best deals in the reinsurance market. After striking the deal with the reinsurer, the buyer would then strike a deal with a local insurance company that would underwrite the risk on the back of reinsurance support India has a full range of distribution channels; however, the direct agent remains dominant Distribution: With the passage of a series of legislative reforms in recent years, the Indian insurance market now has a full range of distribution channels. However, most of them still have some way to go before they - 64 -

start to make an impact in those market sectors in which they have chosen to work. At present, the vast majority (around 70% to 75%) of all Indian non-life premiums are still distributed through the legions of on-the-ground direct sales agents (or marketing agents) who are largely employed by the PSUs. The vertically integrated structure of distribution in the Indian non-life sector is often compared with the system found in Japan. This comparison holds true to the extent that both countries policyholders buy the majority of their coverage directly from insurers via an employee of the insurance organisation. However, a key difference between India and Japan is that Indian insurance buyers are more price-sensitive than their Japanese counterparts; Indian buyers are far more concerned with obtaining the best deal. The dominance of the direct marketing agent in India is expected to prevail over the medium term. While bancassurance is gradually picking up as an alternative channel of distribution to the traditional agency model, other low-cost direct channels such as telephone and internet have yet to make a significant impact on the market. Bancassurance has witnessed some growth since IRDAs notification on Corporate Agency regulations in October 2002, which allowed banks to act as an agent of only one life and one non-life insurer. Overall, India is set to follow other Asian markets such as Singapore, South Korea or Indonesia in which bancassurance partnerships are beginning to bear positive results

11. Brokerage in India is still in its infancy The challenges facing brokers: Brokerage in India is still in its infancy. In December 2006, there were 222 licensed brokers (193 direct brokers, 4 reinsurance brokers and 25 composite brokers). However, the role of an insurance broker does not seem to have been properly understood or appreciated because non-life market has hitherto largely been tariffed. Brokers currently account for a small percentage of all premiums distributed in India and are finding it - 65 -

difficult to grow and attract new business. This position is a concern for entities such as Lloyds and is mainly caused by structural elements within the Indian market; the following discussion outlines the main challenges facing brokers: 11.1 Brokers Face Significant Cost Disadvantages Compared To Agents: 1. High set-up costs: The IRDA has made it mandatory for the insurance brokers to pay a registration fee of INR 50 lakhs (USD 110k) in order to show commitment to the market and their clients. In contrast, registration costs for insurance agents are just INR 250 (USD 6) per annum.57 Brokers are also required to have professional indemnity cover of three times their brokerage income, subject to a minimum of INR 50 lakhs (USD 110k). The Indian Broker Market Is Dominated By Small Operations Targeting Sme Business 2. Sole trader competition: The vast majority of the 222 or so brokers currently operating in the Indian market are extremely small operations targeting small and medium-sized enterprises. These brokers currently have two distinct advantages over their corporate competitors in the Indian market. Firstly, their relatively small fixed cost base enables them to intermediate business for commission levels that are as low as 1%. Secondly, as insurance is not currently perceived to be a product of economic value, the deep relationships that these brokers hold with their clients are deemed to be more important than insurance expertise. So while internationally, the top ten brokers tend to be Fortune 500 companies, in India the top ten brokers are currently either chartered accountants or surveyor firms.

Clients Have Yet To Be Made Aware Of the Benefits That Brokers Can Bring To Them 3. Legacies of the tariff market: The fact that 70% of all Indian premium income has hitherto emanated from tariffed products means that brokers have so far been unable to demonstrate real value to clients. First of all, the tariff market did not enable brokers to demonstrate their value in shopping - 66 -

around for the best deal. Clients have therefore understandably questioned the value of an expert intermediary when the product that they are purchasing is basically a commodity. While detariffication is changing these dynamics of the broking community, it is likely to take significant time and resources to ensure that clients understand the full benefits brokers can bring to them. 4. Activity restrictions: In addition to the above challenges for brokers, brokers are currently unable to accept business or settle claims on behalf of insurers. The lack of these value-added back office services is yet another barrier to clients purchasing their insurance through brokers. 11.2 Brokers Have So Far Had To Focus Their Efforts on Niche Segments: As a result of high set-up costs, sole trade competition, a long history of tariffs and certain activity restrictions, brokers have had to focus their attention on niche sectors of the Indian market namely: non-tariff business, so-called mega risks and risks where a companys paidup capital is below USD 3.5m.

11.3 Over the Medium Term, Conditions Are Expected To Improve For Brokers Future developments: Detariffication is likely to have two medium-term effects on distribution in the Indian market: Gradual demise of the marketing agent: The PSUs will need to readjust their business models to deal with the underwriting challenges posed by a detariffed market. In order to maintain competitiveness, it is likely that their huge sales forces will need to be reduced. Voluntary Retirement Schemes (VRS) have already been set up by the PSUs to cater for the loss of sales jobs that detariffication is expected to cause.

However, there is a Chance that Insurers Will Have Created Other Distributors by Then:

- 67 -

In the short term, however, local private insurers do not appear to be prepared to wait for brokers to gain a foothold in the market. Furthermore, the take-up of the VRS offered by the PSUs is reported to have been disappointing. Some private insurers have adopted direct distribution strategies. ICICILombard is utilising the extensive retail bank branch network of its Indian partner to sell products via the Bancassurance channel, and Tata AIG has recently employed 1,500 direct marketing agents of its own. This situation may prove difficult for organisations reliant on the broker channel because if these direct strategies prove successful, the extent to which the private companies are prepared to support the cause of brokers may reduce substantially. 11.4 Brokers will have to demonstrate value to clients: While the value of brokers lies to a great extent in their skills in structuring a customised solution for their client, it will take some time until this value proposition filters down to end customers. On the whole, the market will take some time to allow brokers to establish a name.

There is only one local reinsurer the gic Reinsurance: The basic position of reinsurance in India is relatively clear: Single local provider: There is a single local provider of reinsurance capacity, the GIC, which is wholly owned by the Indian government. Reinsurance is not subject to a tariff. 15% compulsory session: Direct insurance companies operating in India were statutorily compelled to cede 20% of their book to the GIC. Since April 2007, this has been reduced to 15%, after which companies are free to make a commercial decision on how much more of their business they are prepared. GIC has right of first refusal: By law, companies should offer any additional reinsurance to the GIC before seeking alternative markets, but in practice, this rarely takes place. - 68 -

International reinsurance limited to a maximum of 10%: Surplus over and above the domestic reinsurance arrangements class-wise can be placed by Indian insurers, subject to a limit of 10% of the total reinsurance premium ceded, outside India.58 However, where it is necessary in respect of specialised insurance to cede a share exceeding such limit to any particular reinsurer, the insurer may seek the specific approval of the Authority. Hardening Rates Have Caused Indian Buyers to Purchase Non-Proportional Cover Reinsurance buyers: Following the hardening of international rates and the growing sophistication of the Indian reinsurance buyer, there had been a trend towards the purchase of non-proportional programmes in India until mid2004. However, a combination of general rate-softening in the international markets and extensive pricedriven competition from the continental reinsurers in the local market has made proportional treaties attractive once again across the market. Reinsurance buyers in India fall into two broad categories: the public companies (including the GIC on a retrocession basis) and the private companies. The perceptions that international reinsurers have of these two groups of buyers are significantly different.

12. Public companies: GIC and the PSUs:

The GIC is the largest and most important reinsurance account in India and, due to their continued dominance of Indian direct market; the PSUs also continue to be important reinsurance buyers. According to the 2005-2006 IRDA Report, the retention ratio a measure of the companies ability to bear risks differs markedly between PSUs. Traditionally, PSUs have retained a significant component of their portfolio, although the net retention is driven by the respective segment in which the premium has been underwritten. Overall, the net retention ratio of PSUs for the period of 20052006 declined, with United India and Oriental retaining considerably less than both New India and National, which both increased their retention. As expected, across segments, the retention ratios also - 69 -

have varied significantly as summarised by the chart overleaf

CHART : Retention ratios of PSUs

CHART: Range of PSU retention ratios

The public companies are said to maintain poor quality data and to focus heavily on cost: However, despite the size of the PSU accounts, leading international underwriters expressed certain reservations about dealing with this business. Poor data: The data provided by the Indian public companies is routinely described by underwriters as very poor. This is mainly a result of the inadequacy of the IT systems employed by the public - 70 -

sector companies. This situation adversely affects the ability of both brokers, who are less able to add value by means of actuarial capabilities, and underwriters, who find it difficult to fully comprehend their exposure to risk. It should be noted that gradual improvements are being made as clients and counterparties demand quality, and an Indian risk management solutions model was launched in December 2006 by RMS. However, even with this progression, it is unlikely that the standards of public sector data will reach satisfactory levels in the near future. Cost focus: As found elsewhere in Indian insurance, there is an unrelenting focus on low cost rather than economic value in the reinsurance purchasing practices of the public companies. This focus is structurally supported by an annual tender process in which a range of companies are invited to place their bids for a reinsurance programme. Buyers speak of the value placed on long-term relationships, but in practice, a reinsurance partner is highly likely to be dropped if it is not prepared to match the lowest price on a tender. Many practitioners referred to the main policy used in assessing these tenders as L1 (or lowest one). This focus on cost is only likely to be changed over the medium to long term. Clients will first need to be educated and accept that quality insurance cover is a key part of a successful business enterprise.

However, the PSUs Still Remain the Largest Reinsurance Buyers in the Market: However, despite these ongoing issues, there are good reasons for international reinsurers to continue to focus on the public companys portfolios. These accounts are expected to continue to be Indias largest for a considerable time and their data provision is expected to improve with the increasing international competition in the direct market. Moreover, leading international brokers are extensively used for the placement of Indian reinsurance premiums. Guy Carpenter and Willis are said to be the largest producers for Lloyds.

- 71 -

12.1 Private companies: The reinsurance position of private sector companies operating in the Indian market differs from that of their public sector competitors in three key ways. Smaller market but higher reinsurance utilisation: Firstly, the accounts are far smaller but retention ratios tend to be lower. Again, depending on portfolios; for instance, HDFC Chubbs retained a higher portion than any other private insurers largely due to a significant component of its portfolio being motor. While The Overall Size of the Reinsurance Is Smaller For Private Companies, They Tend To Have a Higher Utilization CHART: Retention ratios of private companies

Better quality of data: Secondly, the quality of data provided to reinsurers is of a far higher quality than that provided by the publics. Less focus on insurance costs: Finally, there is slightly less focus on cost (and more focus on relationship) in the reinsurance purchasing process.

The private companies are still young and thus use proportional treaty arrangements: London underwriters are not yet heavily involved in working on the reinsurance programmes of the - 72 -

private companies despite their greater degree of quality and professionalism. This is mainly due to the size and stage of development of the private insurers in India. The small size of the private insurers means that only low levels of premiums are available from these organisations and, therefore, there is little margin from which to pay for the relatively costly process of purchasing protection from London. The fact that the organisations are young is also an important barrier to London purchasing as they have tended to opt for proportional treaty coverage, which is the stronghold of the GIC and the continental European reinsurers. However, as these private insurers grow and develop their business in India which they are expected to do over the medium term the reinsurance premiums available from them will grow ever larger, and it is likely that their balance sheets will reach a point where the purchase of non-proportional cover will become more of a realistic option.

The GIC is 100% government-owned and has an A rating from a.m. best Reinsurance sellers The GIC: The GIC, the national reinsurance carrier, is backed 100% by the Indian government. The GICs exceptionally strong position in the Indian market is further underpinned by the links it maintains as a holding company for the PSUs. The GIC currently has a BB rating (Marginal) from Standard & Poors and was downgraded from an A to an A- by A.M. Best at the end of 2006. Its monopoly position has enabled the GIC to build up a huge amount of capital and the organisation is currently seeking opportunities to efficiently employ its assets. There is current evidence of this activity as the GIC has recently built on its strength at home and developed its presence across Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Sources suggest that the GIC has ambitions to become the leading reinsurer in the region. In terms of products, the GIC is seeking to develop into lines outside of its traditional proportional treaty arrangements, which are being eroded by heavy competition from the large continental reinsurers. - 73 -

Primary Insurers in the Indian Market Are Obliged To Cede 15% of Their Risk to the Gic from April 2007 Onwards: The compulsory cession rule does not always work in the GICs favour as the government run reinsurer has no choice but to accept the poorly performing motor liability cessions. Given its dominant position, the GIC is confident that it will remain competitive in a freer market than currently exists in India, and has stated that it is in favour of both detariffing the Indian primary market and a gradual removal of the compulsory cessions. Although cedants express confidence in the GIC, they also have a desire to spread their reinsurance exposure across more than one provider. Apart from the GIC, several foreign reinsurers are involved in the Indian market.

Swiss Re and Munich Re Are Strong in India Due To the High Use of Proportional Treaties: Outside of the GIC, the continental reinsurers are the main markets used for the placement of proportional treaty business. However, over the past five years, the position taken by the major continental providers has changed substantially. Following major losses in the late 1990s, the continentals appeared to have turned their backs on India and focused their attention elsewhere; however, during the last two to three years, they have shown a significant interest in redeveloping their position in India. Swiss Re (Mumbai), Munich Re (Kolkata) and SCOR all now have representative offices in India. They all continue to seek opportunities to bolster their share of the Indian market and are cutting prices heavily to do so. Growth in India appears to be of strategic importance to the large continental reinsurers and, therefore, their parent companies are likely to absorb any losses made in the market over the short to medium term.

- 74 -

All of the Continental Reinsurers Are Now Aggressively Targeting India Munich Re had sought to form an onshore reinsurance venture with Indian partner Reliance; this deal fell through in late 2004 as Reliance moved through a corporate restructuring and Munich Re discovered that Reliance wished to be more than a simple silent partner in the proposed operation. To counteract the requirement of a local partner, both Munich Re and Swiss Re are lobbying for full branch status for their local offices. This would enable them to utilise the huge capacity of their head offices rather than putting up the USD 44m in capital required to be a local reinsurer. However, this proposal has been pushed back strongly by the IRDA and is unlikely to be implemented in the short to medium term. So for the time being, Munich Re appears to be concentrating its activities in India on tapping into the fast growing life insurance markets. Munich Res Ergo has already established its presence in India through a health insurance partnership with Apollo. Apollo has joined hands with DKV International Health Holdings (part of Ergo group), which is Ergos health care brand.

The London Market Is an Important Provider of Non Proportional Coverage to India London market: The London market, and in particular Lloyds, still continues to play an important role in Indian reinsurance. London tends to be perceived as the leader for the following categories of business: Specific and high-limit reinsurance coverage (facultative and excess of loss). Sophisticated and tailored products such as jewellers block, financial institutions, professional liability (D&O / E&O). London and Lloyds retain strong positions in the Indian reinsurance market despite not having a local presence for several reasons: firstly, the common language shared by the two countries; secondly, the - 75 -

legal systems are aligned and based on Anglo-Saxon common law principles; and thirdly, education. Indian insurers are keen to work with their London counterparts as London and Lloyds underwriters are perceived to be world leaders in insurance, and deals made with London enable Indian companies to benefit from market leading knowledge. Finally, Indian buyers are said to enjoy the culture of the deal-making environment of the London market.

Regional markets, such as Singapore, are considered tier 2 reinsurance providers: Regional markets, such as Singapore, absorb some Indian reinsurance business, but these players are generally considered to be tier 2 options behind the continental markets and London. This competition tends to occur once London has set up and underwritten an account for one or two years; there have been reports of significant price competition stemming from Western insurance companies operating out of Singapore. This cost focus is certainly attractive to Indian buyers, but significant amounts of premium are not currently being lost to regional centres. Bermuda is not a natural or traditional home for Indian reinsurance and is not used much; however, it was noted that Bermuda would certainly be considered if the rates were attractive. 13. Class-by-class analysis: The remainder of this section will consider each of the major classes in the light of the liberalisation dynamics discussed above. This will be used as the basis of the forecasting in the following section. 13.1 Motor: Sales of automobiles tend to have a significant influence on the level of non-life insurance premiums in a developing country. The main reason for this situation is that motor insurance is generally a compulsory product in most countries. The relationship between automobile growth and non-life premium income is illustrated by the Chinese market. Between 1998 and 2002, automobile registrations in China grew by 141%; during the same time period, non-life premiums increased by - 76 -

68%. India is just entering a period in which car sales are likely to grow exponentially; market leader Maruti Udyog reported a 22% increase in domestic sales at 56,606 vehicles during September 2006 compared with 46,393 vehicles in the same period the previous year. The Compulsory Motor Class Plays a Less Significant Role in the Indian Market: The premium breakdown shows that the compulsory motor class plays a less significant role in the Indian market than in other developing territories. By comparison, the Chinese market consists of 61% motor premium. The difference in contribution is reflected in the number of new car registrations in each of the countries. In 2005, China recorded 3.8 million new car registrations whereas India recorded 1.3 million in the same year. Motor third-party (TP) liability has been a famously loss-making business due to fixed, very low pricing and to galloping, very high claims payouts. During 2003-2004, the motor TP portfolio was estimated to have a claims ratio of 200% to 250%. CHART : Motor TP* absolute growth and market share top five players (1H 2005 vs. 1H 2006)

It has been common practice for this segment to be cross-subsidised by the motor own damage (OD) premiums (which business is estimated to have a better claims ratio of about 80%). In particular, ICICI Lombard has been making significant progress in gaining market share in motor OD business, growing by USD 60m between 1H 2005 and 1H 2006. - 77 -

On the other hand, Baja Allianz is a significant player in the much less desirable motor TP business. Yet even in this segment, ICICI Lombard has grown its business more in absolute terms as summarised by the charts below. ICICI Lombard has grown its motor business significantly revealing an aggressive strategy for Market Share: CHART : Motor OD absolute growth and market share top five players (1H 2005 vs. 1H 2006)

Fire has traditionally been the breadwinner of the Indian insurance market 13.2 Property: The IRDA splits the property class into fire and engineering. Fire has traditionally been the breadwinner of the Indian insurance market with claims accounting for approximately 30% in 2004.72 The typical customers for fire insurance are mainly large corporate customers, which demand successfully that their unprofitable risks such as health and marine cargo get a most favoured pricing status, the subsidy being hidden by the fact that the latter have for some time been non-tariff classes of business. CHART : Fire absolute growth and market share top five players (1H 2005 vs 1H 2006)

- 78 -

Reliance has witnessed a major growth in Fire insurance during 1H 2006: Similar to motor, ICICI Lombard is the clear market leader among private companies for fire insurance. However, Reliance has witnessed a major growth in this class of business over the last year making it the clear market leader in terms of absolute premium growth as summarised by the chart above. For engineering insurance, which typically covers all types of risk associated with erection, testing, machinery, plant and equipment, ICICI Lombard is the clear private company leader closely followed by Bajaj Allianz.
CHART : Engineering absolute growth and market share top five players (1H 2005 vs 1H 2006)

- 79 -

Group Health and Liability Insurance Are Becoming Increasingly Important For the Indian Economy CHART : PA & healthabsolute growth and market share top five

Rising Health Costs Lie Behind Considerable Growth in Health Insurance Premiums The fundamental causes of upward pressure on health care costs include the rapid progress of medical technology and the fact that patients are becoming more demanding about health care services and - 80 -

wants are expanding in relation to needs While it is difficult to measure the extent of rising medical costs, observers suggest that health care costs are typically increasing at three to five times the rate of general price inflation. Even though health insurance is seen as becoming increasingly unprofitable for PSUs, due to escalating healthcare costs, adverse selection, moral hazard and a low premium structure, ICICI Lombard has clearly targeted this segment of the market as summarised by current market share and growth figures above.

So Far, Private Companies Have Made Little Impact on the Marine Cargo Market

13.3 Marine: Private companies have so far made little impact on the marine cargo markets as customers continue to prefer dealing with PSUs.

However, recent growth performance indicates that private companies are gaining market share CHART : Marine cargo* absolute growth and market share top five players (1H 2005 vs 1H 2006)

- 81 -

While the market penetration for private companies in the marine cargo segment has been comparatively low, some significant growth has been witnessed in the marine hull business for private companies. The entry of private companies is expected to benefit shipping companies as they will then be in a position to obtain cheaper war risk cover from the international market compared with the current rates being offered by PSUs. As summarised by the chart below, IFFCO Tokio has recently gained a significant portion of the market controlling one- fifth of the total Indian marine hull market in 1H 2006.

Iffco Tokio Gained a Significant Share of the Marine Hull Market with Major Growth in 1h 2006 CHART : Marine hull absolute growth and market share top four players (1H 2005 vs 1H 2006)

- 82 -

13.4 Liability: Liability represents a small proportion of the total Indian market. However, private companies such as ICICI Lombard and Tata AIG are well positioned to take advantage of this fast-growing segment of the market. But Growth Rates Are Significant and Estimated To Be Around 25% Per Annum CHART: Liability absolute growth and market share top five players (1H 2005 vs. 1H 2006)

Claims in this segment are believed to be very low compared to developed markets, with no known claims exceeding USD 1m. Indias rapid economic development and, in particular, its focus on trade is likely to drive growth in niche liability classes. For example, areas such as professional liability, D&O and E&O are estimated to grow by 25% per annum over the next five years, driven by the growth of professionals. In addition, the continued growth of Indian exports, especially in the pharmaceutical and chemical industries, will drive demand for product liability coverage. Over the next three years, the Indian insurance market is likely to see its development accelerate

14. The Indian Non-life Market 2010:

The Indian non-life market has experienced significant changes that are likely to influence the - 83 -

countrys development of its insurance market in the medium to long term.

So far, the entry of a large number of Indian and foreign private companies has led to greater choice in terms of products and services for Indian consumers. A growing realization of the benefits and importance of sophisticated insurance and reinsurance tools has broadened the pool of potential buyers of insurance. Given this backdrop, the Indian insurance market has experienced considerable growth since its liberalisation in 2000. Over the next three years, the Indian insurance market is likely to see its process of maturation accelerate.

14.1 Regulatory drivers: Regulatory changes in the four areas discussed in the previous section products, market players, distribution and reinsurance will drive change in the Indian insurance market in the medium term. In some areas, such as detariffication, the majority of reform has already taken place, although the consequences are yet to be seen. In other areas, while the reform is promised, it is difficult to anticipate when it will occur. As a result, there is a lot of uncertainty in the Indian insurance market. The four main areas of change are now considered in turn. 14.2 Detariffication: The process of detariffication, first begun in 1994, has gradually moved the Indian market to a position where the overwhelming majority of insurance is transacted without a tariff. As of 1 January 2007, tariff rates have been withdrawn from all lines of business except for motor third-party (TP) liability. While hitherto, insurance professionals had limited exposure to sophisticated technical pricing based on actuarial data analysis, in a detariffed market, this is increasingly a necessity for businesses in order for them to remain profitable. - 84 -

14.3 Foreign ownership: As discussed earlier, foreign ownership is currently restricted to 26%, although there are plans to increase this limit. The typical structure adopted by the Indian government for the phasing in of foreign-owned entities across other industries (such as construction and pharma) has been as follows: 1. Phase I: Allow foreign entity to have 26% stake in joint venture. 2. Phase II: Increase foreign entity maximum stake from 26% to 49%. 3. Phase III: Increase foreign entity maximum stake from 49% to 74%. 4. Phase IV: Allow 100% foreign-owned entity to operate in market. In January 2007, the Indian government reiterated its claim to increase the cap from 26% to 49% In January 2007, the Indian government reiterated that it would introduce legislation to hike the FDI cap in the insurance sector to 49%. No time limit has been set for taking a decision on it although consultations with the industry and stakeholders are underway. There is ample opposition from the left, but analysts expect that this change will be made effective in the next one to two years. The effect of this change will be twofold. Firstly, it will increase the focus of the existing private insurers operating within the Indian market. As discussed in the previous section, the private companies are increasingly diverging on strategy as they are influenced by their foreign partners. It is likely that increased foreign ownership will lead to differentiated strategy, more niche players and a wider product range. Secondly, it is expected to increase the supply of capacity in the market as new investors will decide to enter the market. Indeed, a number of insurers have commented that, as soon as foreign companies are allowed more than 26% ownership, they would move as quickly as possible to participate in the market.

14.4 Broker distribution: - 85 -

The broker channel was recognised in 2002; again, foreign capital providers can take up to a 26% stake in an Indian brokerage operation. There is also no indication at the time of writing as to whether the constraints placed on brokers, such as high set-up costs and activity restrictions will eventually be removed. What remains clear, however, is the fact that in a detariffed market, the broker has more opportunity to demonstrate value to both the customer as well as the insurer. Value-added services can be in the form of consulting regarding risk management responsibilities as well as more traditional insurance-related roles. The 20% Compulsory Cession Has Been Reduced To 10% In 2007 In line with detariffication, there has been some progress in reducing the compulsory cession to the GIC from 20% to 15%. However, a complete abolishment of the remaining 15% compulsory cession to the GIC is unlikely to occur in the medium term. Although it would seem natural to liberalise this position as the broader non-life market begins to open up, the Indian government and legislator reiterated their desire to retain insurance premium in India in the central legislation of 2000, and there is no reason to believe that this position has since changed. In addition, many local companies are happy with the automatic reinsurance support that they receive from the GIC. The PSUs are pleased that they are able to cede 15% of their poorly performing motor book onto their parent whereas the growing number of private insurers are grateful for the additional capacity that they receive from the GICs de facto proportional treaty coverage. While a further reduction to 10% is expected in 2008, abolishing compulsory cessions altogether is not at the top of the legislators agenda. 14.5 Growth drivers:

- 86 -

Overall, sales of both commercial and retail products are expected to benefit from Indias surging economic output over the medium term. Economists expect Indias output to grow by around 6% per annum over the next ten to 15 years, and the political and business environments are expected to stabilise further.The combination of this economic growth, increased stability and the liberalisation of the non-life sector is expected to provide premium growth in the range of 10% to 15% per annum over the short to medium term.

14.6 Personal lines insurance premium growth drivers: Although probably not of immediate interest to Lloyds underwriters, a developing economys initial growth in insurance penetration is often driven by personal lines products, especially motor cover as this tends to be compulsory. Indeed, Indias fast-developing private insurers expect retail products to provide them with their main source of premium growth over the medium term. The reason for their focus is as follows: Growing consumer class: The Indian consumer class is currently estimated to be around 200 million and growing. However, even amongst this class of consumers, nonlife penetration remains extremely low. The reasons for the low penetration are twofold. Firstly, most members of the consumer class have gained their wealth recently and, therefore, have had little time to consolidate and protect their assets. Secondly, lack of competition in the insurance market has led to mundane products and poor customer service. These limiting factors are likely to decrease over the medium term. 14.7 Commercial insurance premium growth drivers: The widely acknowledged dynamism of the Indian economy is currently attracting global attention. Commercial enterprise is likely to benefit from this, and the success of commercial enterprise is likely to filter down to the general insurance sector. Reasons for this include: - 87 -

a)

FDI:

Foreign direct investment in industry is often made with several requirements that generally include adequate insurance cover. Sectors most likely to benefit from investment in the medium term are IT, pharmaceuticals and manufacturing. Product demand is likely include product liability (for exporters) and directors and officers liability (D&O) cover. b) PPP infrastructure development: The quality of Indias ports, airports and railways leaves much to be desired, and infrastructure development in the next few years is likely to cost USD 150bn. Given the need for speedy infrastructure development and the shaky state of its public finances, the Indian government appears to have embraced the concept of Public Private Partnerships (PPP). Examples of PPP projects underway are the Western Freeway Sealink project in Mumbai, which will cost around USD 560m; development of a metro system in the cities of Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar in Gujarat at a cost of USD 711m; and a series of gas-based power plants across Gujrat at a cost of USD 800m per plant. Many more projects of this type are being scoped across India over the medium term, and the support of specialist commercial insurers will be required to ensure their success. c) Insurer quality and client education: Market-leading companies will expect market leading insurance cover. Household name insurers have already recognised this and have entered the non-life sector with Indian partners. Direct investment in the non-life sector by foreign entities is expected to drive growth in insurance premium through increased quality of product, higher-quality customer service and increased customer awareness of the economic benefits of purchasing sound insurance coverage. d) Catastrophe exposure:

India is heavily exposed to natural catastrophe loss but is poorly insured against such risks. For example, in 1999, India accounted for approximately 25% of the worlds fatalities due to natural catastrophes; in 2001, this figure stood at 80%.80 Events in recent years, such as the 2005 Kashmir - 88 -

earthquake (more than 87,000 dead in India and Pakistan), the 2005 Mumbai floods (1,000 dead) and the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami (18,045 dead), have proved that India remains one of the catastrophe centres of the world. However, less than 15% of the damage caused is thought to have been insured. According to government estimates quoted by the Times of India, economic damage from the Tsunami has been estimated at INR 100bn (GBP 1.3bn). To date, the four Indian public sector insurers have received 13,000 claims worth just INR 14bn (GBP 178m). In contrast, insured losses in the US following Hurricane Ivan (2004) totalled 55% and insured losses following Hurricane Katrina (2005) are estimated to be up to 48% of the total economic damage suffered. The Mumbai flood has taken insurance companies by surprise, leading to two insurance companies exhausting their reinsurance protection. In 2006, all insurance companies had purchased more catastrophe reinsurance cover. With the increased reinsurance cover purchased, Mumbai flood loss would be only 30% of the reinsurance cover purchased by all the insurance companies put together in 2006-2007; as against 52% of the reinsurance cover in 2005-2006.One of the short-comings of the Indian insurance industry is the lack of credible data to simulate potential loss from a natural catastrophe of a high severity. At best, insurance companies are following an aggregate loss model whereby they assess the impact of a natural catastrophe by analysing the severity of a single event applied to their portfolio.

However, Lack Of Reform and Negative Customer Perception May Act As a Drag on Growth a) Risk factors: Insurance analysts are excited about the prospects of the Indian market. However, there are risks that may adversely affect the levels of growth in the Indian non-life market: b) slow reform: Much of this growth prediction is based upon the liberalisation agenda set out by the government and the regulator, the IRDA. Due to a number of competing interests, it should be noted that there is significant potential for delay in this liberalization programme. - 89 -

c) Poor customer perception: Due to the poor levels of customer service provided by PSU insurers and their failure to pay claims promptly, Indian assureds tend to perceive insurance to be a tax (ie with no returns) rather than a product of genuine economic value. d) Structural changes: Combining the regulatory and growth drivers, there are a number of structural changes that are likely to occur if risk factors such as a slow reforms and poor customer perception are overcome.

15. A Significant Price War is expected over the Next Few Years
15.1 Price competition is set to increase: While it is yet too early to verify the impact of the detariffed environment, competition is expected to manifest itself in prices, products, underwriting criteria, sales methods and creditworthiness. As experience with other markets has shown, insurance companies are expected to vie with each other to capture market share through better pricing and client segmentation. Industry observers estimate that there is likely to be a significant price war, which is expected to last for 18 to 36 months. When marine hull insurance was completely detariffed, the stiff competition that followed led to rates falling by 40 to 50%. Marine hull insurance premiums are, however, now expected to rise back to the levels prevailing before detariffication occurred. Moreover, Indian shipping companies are expecting to see strong demarcation and differentiation between fleets of different ship owners. Factors such as claims history, maintenance condition and average age of vessel are expected to strongly influence premium rates. General insurers have predicted that premiums for older ships will increase by as much as 40% at renewal this year, but that good shipping fleets with a no loss record, of which there are few in India, are likely to get a 10% to 20% reduction in new premiums. 15.2 Cross-subsidisation is expected to cease: - 90 -

The Fire Class Will No Longer Serve as a Source of Cross-Subsidy for Motor Business, In the initial phase of detariffication, the free pricing regime is expected to result in a decline in growth. Other markets in which detariffication has occurred on a similar scale, such as Japan, South Korea and Ireland, have shown that the first few years can witness a decline of 20% in premiums for detariffed classes leading to growth resuming only three years after the lifting of pricing restrictions. The issue of fire detariffication is of particular interest to insurers as they have hitherto used the fire portion of an account to cross-subsidise the losses that they frequently experience in motor and nontariffed business classes. To put it differently, in the loss-making areas, the premium rates are expected to increase to meet the losses, while premium rates are expected to come down in profitable portfolios such as fire and engineering. As fire premiums are being detariffed, there is most likely going to be a competitive struggle between the PSUs and the private insurers. It is believed that this is the reason why the IRDA has placed an administrative burden on insurers wishing to reduce rates by more than 20%. Some commentators believe this will limit price competition, while others think it will merely cause confusion in the market. The public sector insurers in India have continued to push for motor detariffication as, for many years, they have incurred losses in this mandatory insurance sector. State-owned insurers have argued that since they handle more than 40% of the countrys motor business, any delays in implementing the detariffication of this segment would hit the companies profitability. 15.3 Rationalisation of premium structures is expected: a) Risk-based pricing will increase: Detariffication is expected to result in risk-based pricing of portfolios and therefore a rationalisation of premium structures. While we can expect some level of unpredictability in the market initially, - 91 -

experience from other countries that have gone through detariffication shows that prices will stabilise to reflect the underlying risks and cost of capital, whereas insurers underwriting efficiency will increase. For detariffication to be successful, stronger solvency supervision will also be required as, without fixed tariffs, insurers results will become more volatile. This will force out badly performing insurers that have hitherto placed little emphasis on quality underwriting. b) Building of profitable portfolios could help access to reinsurance support: Currently, the Indian market has ample capacity for even the largest risks, due to inter company cessions of the PSUs, the market surplus treaties and facultative support from the GIC. With detariffication, some reinsurers have expressed concern over the possible impact of the ensuing price war, which could result in the revenues of primary insurers shrinking. This, in turn, could lead to deterioration in underwriting losses and a consequent weakening of domestic retention capacities. Some international reinsurers looking at the Indian market believe that it could take some time for cedants to gather experience with the new situation and to find their minimum rates. This is due to the fact that the primary reflex for reinsurers is to compete via price for new or renewal business. Insufficient ratings, in turn, take at least a year to have an impact on the companies results, since losses do not occur instantly. Accordingly, one bad year is not sufficient to change market behaviour. Market behaviour with respect to companies rating approach is only likely to change after two or three years of negative results. Yet, the consensus is that detariffication is a move that should ultimately benefit all stakeholders. Even though tariffs help reduce volatility in the insurance industry and avoid irrational price competition, detariffication benefits policyholders and allows insurance companies to better differentiate products and price risks appropriately. The comfort of an anchor tariff rate has made the industry more transaction-focused. From a reinsurers perspective, the transition toward a business-driven and profit-and-loss-driven approach - 92 -

should be seen as a positive step. Those insurers that are able to demonstrate their commitment to building profitable portfolios will enjoy positive reinsurance support.

15.4 Growth in demand is expected to be more than met by increased capacity a) Growing insurance demand will be met by increased capacity: Growth in insurance demand will need to be matched by increased supply of insurance capacity. There is unlikely to be a shortage of capacity due to the global interest in India from leading insurers. The three candidates for this capacity provision are as follows: 1. Existing insurers (PSUs or privates) either by receiving additional capital from their parent companies or via a capital-raising exercise, eg a PSU doing an initial public offering (IPO). 2. New insurers that choose to join the market. 3. Heavier reliance on the global reinsurance market. The most likely scenario is that all three of these groups will be involved in the evolution and growth of the Indian non-life market to the extent that the government allows them to be. The growth prospects in India are very real and understandably attractive to Western insurance groups that are searching for growth outside of saturated, developed markets. However, increased capital supply may depress prices to unrealistic levels in the short term. b) Growth projection: scenario I simple extrapolation: Having looked at the regulatory and growth drivers, we are now in a better position to project premium levels for the Indian non-life direct market up to 2010. We can build up a successively more complex scenario by starting with the most basic: 15.5 Constant premium growth: The most basic growth scenario that we can start with is a mere projection based upon the compound annual growth rate for the period of 2000 to 2006, which stood at 17%. This is a useful exercise in - 93 -

understanding the recent growth dynamics of the Indian insurance market and its potential up until 2010. To put it into context, the Indian insurance market in this scenario could expand by almost 100% to overtake todays markets of Ireland or Taiwan. If Premium Growth Continues According To Its Historical Average, the Indian Market Is Set To Nearly Double By 2010 CHART: Scenario I premium levels projection (in billion USD)

However, the scenario fails to take into consideration the considerable structural changes in the market following detariffication of virtually all classes of business since January 2007. 16. Detariffication is likely to be associated with a period of adjustment: 16.1 Adjusting for detariffication: In order to be prepared for a virtually complete detariffed market, Indian insurers have had to pursue detailed analyses of risks based on occupation, sum insured and geographic area to prepare for the new regime starting in January 2007. The new regime is helping to eliminate the frictional costs associated with administering the tariff and to allow market forces to determine individual risk appetite. However, as in any market, this is likely to be associated with a period of adjustment and predatory pricing, and it may even include what some have termed a blood bath for some lines of business that - 94 -

have hitherto been excluded from the competitive pressures of market forces. Experience of other markets, and the marine cargo detariffing in India, suggests that the initial period of detariffing will result in a considerable erosion of the premium base as competition for good risks drives down rates. Having realised the potential for large rate reductions, the IRDA has limited the level of rate changes for various classes. Fire and engineering rates may be reduced by up to 49% and motor rates by 20%. If an insurer wishes to adopt rates lower than these ceilings, they will be required to file their rates and wait the IRDAs consideration. While this may not prevent the predicted blood bath, it does create administrative costs associated with lowering rates substantially. However, this is merely an interim dispensation, which stands to be withdrawn with the approval of the rates filed by the insurers under the File and Use system. Once new products that have been filed for approval are cleared, IRDA limits for discounts are likely to go up, but it remains unclear by how much this is likely to be. Even with a set limit for discounts, some insurers are circumventing this directive by offering discounts that allow premiums to drop. For instance, installation of fire extinguishing aids allowed for discounts of anywhere between 2.5% and 15%. The section below aims to give a reasonable overview of potential scenarios. Fundamentally, in a detariffed environment, the motor insurance is priced on the risk factor rating system (RFRS) model, which is widely used around the world. The premiums are based on factors such as vehicle, driver, location and extent of use, occupation, accident repair cost, liability, etc. With detariffing, the rating of the products should be based on the risk profile of the customer. In the motor classes, the private cars segment is expected to witness a premium reduction, while commercial vehicles are likely to see an increase in premium. 16.2 Motor third-party (TP)

- 95 -

Motor third-party is traditionally considered an unprofitable sector and according to the Times of India, rates would rise anywhere between 34% and 257% if the product was detariffed.89 In 2007, the IRDA decided against a full detariffication of motor TP with the hope that premiums for this class of business could be adequately increased. The IRDA has proposed an initial increase of 150% in TP premium rates, which were later brought down to 70% once the transporters threatened to go on strike. For our scenario, we have used the latest 70% rate increase for 2007 but have assumed that rates will rise again by a further 10% in 2008. This is likely to be the minimum rate increase if the product is detariffed and the transport sector can no longer exert political pressure. Once markets have adjusted for this 10%, discussions have revealed that there may still be room for a further 20% in both 2009 and 2010 in order to converge to the initially proposed increase of 150%. 16.3 Motor own damage. Motor own damage (OD) in contrast is profitable and being targeted by the private companies. In addition, the decision to pool all commercial TP premiums could further provide an incentive for private companies to target the more profitable OD sector. It is likely that this will put downwards pressure on motor OD rates and the Times of India has predicted a 20% to 25% rate reduction in 2007. For the first quarter of 2007, however, motor OD rates remained stable, although commentators have suggested that they will be continually reviewed. As a result for our scenario, we have used a relatively small rate reduction of 20% in 2007, followed by a further smaller reduction in 2008. Rates are expected to rise again in 2009 and 2010. 16.4 Property: The local press has reported that insurers expected rate declines of between 15% and 30% for both fire and engineering products due to the generally profitable nature of the business. In the case of fire and engineering covers purchased by companies (ie excluding personal home insurance), the IRDA has capped discounts in January at 49%. In addition, property rates may be - 96 -

constrained by the price of catastrophe reinsurance purchased on the international markets. It is likely that catastrophe business will become more differentiated and location-specific as opposed to zonal or country-wide rates under the tariff. The drop in premium for the first quarter of 2007 reputably as much as 50% surpassed insurers expectations.93 It is also anticipated that the rates will not recover for at least 18 to 24 months. For our scenario, we have assumed that rate for both fire and engineering will decline by 49% in 2007 and by a more modest 20% in 2008, but will stabilise in 2009. However, given that this sector has been massively underinsured to the tune of approximately 35%, figures in the actual scenario will be adjusted for fire accordingly. In addition, a buoyant economy is expected to result in considerable asset building and price inflation, which is expected to mute and to some degree hide significant price adjustments for fire following detariffication.

16.5 Health: Health insurance should shoot up 100% if insurers try to cover the current losses with the same coverage, according to an article published by the National Insurance Academy. However, the regulatory situation may allow only a moderate rise, and competition is likely to push down prices in an effort to gain market share in one of the fastest-growing business classes. Accordingly, our conservative estimate is that premiums may rise by a mere 5% in 2007 and a further 5% in 2008. 16.6 Marine: Being fully detariffed, marine and aviation lines have made extensive use of overseas capacity. Insurance professionals believe that premium may go up in the marine segment has they have hitherto been subsidised to some extent by fire business. At the beginning of the year, the Times of India estimated that clients are expected to pay 10% more for goods in transit under marine insurance cover. Other classes of business, including liability, are not expected to have significant rate movements as - 97 -

their pricing has been unaffected by the tariff system.

17. Forecasting growth by class Using the assumptions detailed above, class-by-class growth has been forecast for 2007 to 2010. In the first chart below, the 2006 growth rate per class has been used to extrapolate to 2010 premium levels. In the second chart, the same growth rate has been applied, but thereafter adjusted for expected premium rate changes as summarised in the previous section. CHART : Constant growth rates

CHART: Growth with rate changes

While this forecast is fairly crude, a few clear conclusions can be drawn from a comparison between the two charts shown above. These conclusions are supported by the soft intelligence discussed earlier in this report. - 98 -

17.1. Slower growth in 2007 Firstly, premium growth in 2007 is much more modest when rate decreases are taken into consideration. This reflects the general opinion that price wars in 2007 will eat into insurers premium bases. 17. 2. Exponential growth from 2009 onwards Secondly, the rate decreases early in the period clear the way for much more substantial growth later on. As the insurance market adjusts to an open pricing structure, the model predicts strong growth in 2009 and 2010 (between 24% and 30% respectively) under the adjustable rate model. While Premiums Will Slow Down Initially, There Will Be Increased Growth Towards 2010 The total premium ends lower under the adjustable rate model (USD 12.6bn) than under the constant growth model (USD 14.2bn), but higher than under the original premium extrapolation (USD 11.2bn), making the Indian market expand by a premium volume equivalent to that of the total Norwegian market in 2005. With The Indian Market Expanding By the Size of the Norwegian Market between 2007-2010 This reflects our understanding of the dynamics of liberalisation: Detariffication will bring real benefits to both Indian consumers and the insurance industry over the medium term. While short-term price adjustments will lead to lower growth during the first one to two years, premium growth is expected to gain momentum towards the end of this decade. 17. 3. Changing product mix Thirdly, the product mix changes significant when the expected rate changes are taken into consideration. Most noticeably in this model, motor third-party increases substantially, taking into consideration the increasing rates. In the past, motor TP has been considered unattractive due to low rates and high loss ratios. Provided the rates are allowed to rise to a competitive level, this sector should become more attractive. - 99 -

The chart below compares the current class breakdown with the forecast class breakdown.

By 2010, Indias Product Mix Is Set to Resemble Those of Other Major Emerging Markets
CHART : Change in proportion of business mix (in %)

17.4 Motor and Health Are Forecast To See the Most Significant Growth With regards to motor premium, in particular, the forecast more accurately reflects the kind of breakdown we would expect to see in a developing insurance market such as India. Motor business in total accounts for just less than 50% of total premium. Motor TP, which typically drives the development of motor business in a developing economy, accounts for a much more significant share. In contrast to motor TP, the growth of the property classes, fire and engineering, has been stunted by the price wars and by significantly higher growth in other classes. Even though they have grown in absolute terms, their combined share is forecast to fall to 12% by 2010. Apart from a significant adjustment for fire in 2007 of 35%, this model does not take into consideration the expanding client base that may be attracted by lower premiums. Finally, the other big winner is personal accident and health, which by 2010 will have become the - 100 -

largest class after motor. Again this reflects current speculation that there is considerable potential for growth here.

18. Suggestion:
Insurance companies are now sensing a huge opportunity in credit insurance, following the dispensation granted to them in the credit policy. Private and state-owned companies are now looking at growing their credit insurance portfolio which was at one time the exclusive domain of the Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India (ECGC). In monetary policy, RBI had said, To liberalise further the procedures relating to settlement of claims in respect of export bills, it is proposed to permit banks to write off, in addition to claims settled by ECGC, the outstanding export bills settled by other insurance companies which are regulated by the Insurance Regulatory Development Authority (IRDA).

Total non-life insurance premium is expected to increase at a CAGR of 25% for the period spanning from 2008-09 to 2010-11. With the entry of several low-cost airlines, along with fleet expansion by existing ones and increasing corporate aircraft ownership, the Indian aviation insurance market is all set to boom in a big way in coming years. Home insurance segment is set to achieve a 100% growth as financial institutions have made home insurance obligatory for housing loan approvals. Health insurance is poised to become the second largest business for non-life insurers after motor insurance in next three years.

With a huge population base and large untapped market, insurance industry is a big opportunity area in India for national as well as foreign investors. India is one of the largest markets in the emerging insurance economies globally and is growing at 32-34% annually. This impressive growth in the market has been driven by liberalization, with new players significantly enhancing product awareness - 101 -

and promoting consumer education and information. The strong growth potential of the country has also made international players to look at the Indian insurance market. Moreover, saturation of insurance markets in many developed economies has made the Indian market more attractive for international insurance players. The general insurance business is expected to grow from USD 1.8 billion (1998) to 12 billion in 2008. The private companies would have an easier access to the general insurance business. The market share of the newcomers will be 40-50% of the total market. The cause for better market penetration for the new companies comes from the fact that it makes no difference for the insured to switch companies. Unlike life insurance, it is not expensive to switch insurers. However, the lack of good data would hamper the newcomers.

The insurance business in India is less than USD $1 billion at present (2000). In the near term (three to five years), it is expected to double in size for two simple reasons. (1) Under the new regime, the reinsurance requirements are higher (as a percentage of total insurance business). (2) Privately run non-life insurance companies have a higher reinsurance requirement in the early years.

19. Conclusion:
It seems unlikely that the LIC and the GIC will shrivel up and die within the next decade or two. The IRDA has taken a "slowly" approach. It has been very cautious in granting licenses. It has set up fairly strict standards for all aspects of the insurance business (with the probable exception of the disclosure requirements). The regulators always walk a fine line. Too many regulations kill the incentive for the newcomers; too relaxed regulations may induce failure and fraud that led to nationalization in the first place. India is not unique among the developing countries where the insurance business has been opened up to foreign competitors. we observe that the openness of the market did not mean a takeover by foreign - 102 -

companies even in a decade. Thus, it is unlikely that the same will happen in India, especially when the foreign insurers cannot have a majority shareholding in any company. Continued strength in the broader economy and gradual reform in the non-life sector are expected to combine to produce strong premium growth in the Indian market over the next few years.

Whilst India currently remains a medium-sized non-life market, the growth predicted over the medium to long term is attracting increasing levels of foreign investment and competition. Many of the worlds largest insurers such as AIG, Lombard and Allianz are present in the market. The new private insurers are growing fast and have already developed a combined market share in excess of 30%.

Leading international reinsurers such as Munich Re and Swiss Re are aggressively targeting proportional treaty business. As the market is gradually liberalised and becomes more mature, these private firms are considered well placed to capture an even greater share of a fast-growing market. The main risk to private insurers is the high likelihood of sustained price competition as tariffs are removed from classes of business such as fire and engineering sectors.

20. Bibliography
www.coface.com www.actuaries.in www.adb.org www.asiainsurancepost.com/ www.asiainsurancereview.com www.bajajallianz.com http://www.blonnet.com www.imf.org - 103 -

www.dbresearch.com www.dnaindia.com www.eiu.com www.ey.com www.mckinseyquarterly.com www.ficci.com www.forbes.com www.pwcglobal.com www.indianauto.com www.insuranceday.com www.irdaindia.org www.worldbank.org www.kpmg.co.in www.insuranceinstituteofindia.com www.lloyds.com www.ncaer.org www.economictimes.indiatimes.com www.economist.com www.thehindubusinessline.com www.indianexpress.com/ www.insuranceinsider.com http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com www.tribuneindia.com

21. Glossary
- 104 -

ABI - Association of British Insurers IAR - Industrial All Risks (Insurance) AIA - American Insurance Association IMF - International Monetary Fund ALOP - Advance Loss of Profit IPO - Initial Public Offering ASEAN - Association of Southeast Asian Nations IRDA - Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority BJP - Bharatiya Janata Party IT - Information Technology BPO - Business Process Outsourcing LMA - Lloyds Market Association CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate MFN - Most Favored Nation CBI - Central Bureau of Investigation MLOP - Machinery Loss of Profits (Insurance) CIA - Central Intelligence Agency MoF - Minister of Finance CL - Consequential Loss (Insurance) OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development CVC - Central Vigilance Commission ONGC - Oil and Natural Gas Corporation D&O - Directors and Officers (Liability) PPP - Public Private Partnerships - 105 -

E&O - Errors and Omissions (Insurance) PSU - Public Sector Undertaking EAR - Erection All Risks (Insurance) R&D - Research and Development EIU - Economist Intelligence Unit TAC - Tariff Advisory Committee FDI - Foreign Direct Investment UN - United Nations GATT - General Agreement on Tariffs & Trade UPA - United Progressive Alliance GIC - General Insurance Company of India VAT - Value Added Tax GNI - Gross National Income WTO - World Trade Organization

- 106 -

- 107 -