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WALL ST.

TRAINING
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Income Statement

2008

Actual
2009

2010

Estimated
2011

2012

Projected
2013
2014

2015

$ 24,509
$ 24,509
(18,978)
$ 5,531
$ (2,052)
$ (680)
$ (1,240)
$ (102)
(328)
$ 1,129
(34)
29
37
$ 1,161
(253)
(6)
$ 902

$ 34,204
$ 34,204
(26,561)
$ 7,643
$ (2,898)
$ (1,029)
$ (1,734)
$ (106)
(470)
$ 1,406
(39)
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$ 1,497
(352)
7
$ 1,152

$ 41,045
$ 41,045
(31,750)
$ 9,295
$ (3,560)
$ (1,317)
$ (2,081)
$ (168)
(646)
$ 1,523
(94)
103
113
$ 1,646
(411)
18
$ 1,252

$ 43,507
$ 43,507
(33,525)
$ 9,983
$ (3,773)
$ (1,396)
$ (2,206)
$ (178)
(772)
$ 1,658
(121)
109
165
$ 1,811
(453)
44
$ 1,402

$ 47,423
$ 47,423
(36,399)
$ 11,024
$ (4,113)
$ (1,522)
$ (2,404)
$ (194)
(936)
$ 1,855
(130)
119
212
$ 2,056
(514)
109
$ 1,651

$ 53,114
$ 53,114
(40,608)
$ 12,506
$ (4,606)
$ (1,704)
$ (2,693)
$ (218)
(1,155)
$ 2,130
(148)
133
277
$ 2,392
(598)
273
$ 2,068

$ 61,081 % Growth
$ 61,081 Sum
(46,516) % of Net Sales
$ 14,565 Sum
$ (5,297)
$ (1,960)
$ (3,097)
$ (250)
(1,450) % of Revenue
$ 2,511 Sum
(166) Debt Sweep
153
355 Debt Sweep
$ 2,853 Sum
(713) Tax Rate
684 % Growth
$ 2,823 Sum

432

442

456

456

456

456

456

$ 1.49

$ 2.04

$ 2.53

$ 2.74

$ 3.07

$ 3.62

$ 4.53

$ 1,153
6.0%

$ 1,513
6.2%

$ 1,958
5.7%

$ 2,185
5.3%

$ 2,360
5.4%

$ 2,620
5.5%

$ 2,987
5.6%

(All figures in millions, except per share data)

Fiscal

Revenue
Net Sales
14,835
$ 19,166
Total Revenue
$ 19,166
Cost of Sales
(14,896)
Gross Profit
$ 4,270
Fullfillment
$ (1,658)
Marketing
$ (482)
Technology and Content
$ (1,033)
Other Operating (expense) income, net
$ 24
Operating, SG&A Expenses
(279)
Operating Income
$ 842
Interest Expense
(71)
Other Income
47
Interest Income
83
Pre-Tax Income
$ 901
Income Taxes
(247)
Equity Investment Activity
(9)
Net Income
$ 645
Diluted Shares Outstanding
Diluted Earnings per Share
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin

Projection Notes

456
$ 6.19 Net Income / Diluted S/O
$ 3,497 Op. Inc + Depr + Amort
5.7% EBITDA / Revenue

Income Statement Assumptions


Net Sales Growth
Other Income Growth
Expenses Growth

3.0%
0.02%
0.20%
0.20%
0.00%
0.10%

29.2%
0.25%
(8.7)%
(2.5)%
(5.4)%
0.1%

27.9%
0.12%
(8.4)%
(2.8)%
(5.1)%
(0.4)%

39.6%
0.23%
(8.5)%
(3.0)%
(5.1)%
(0.3)%

20.0%
0.25%
(8.7)%
(3.2)%
(5.1)%
(0.4)%

6.0%
0.25%
(8.7)%
(3.2)%
(5.1)%
(0.4)%

9.0%
0.25%
(8.7)%
(3.2)%
(5.1)%
(0.4)%

12.0%
0.25%
(8.7)%
(3.2)%
(5.1)%
(0.4)%

15.0% Assumption, decrease 50 bps


0.25%
(8.7)% Assumption
(3.2)% Assumption
(5.1)% Assumption
(0.4)% Assumption

COGS, % of Net Sales


Op, SG&A, % of Revenue

(0.3)%
0.2%

77.7%
1.5%

77.4%
1.3%

77.7%
1.4%

77.4%
1.6%

77.1%
1.8%

76.8%
2.0%

76.5%
2.2%

76.2% Decrease 40 bps


2.4% Increase 40 bps

(33.3)%

(216.7)%

150.0%

150.0%

150.0%

150.0%

21.8%

23.5%

25.0%

25.0%

25.0%

25.0%

Minority Interest Growth


Effective Tax Rate

80613502.xls<IS>

27.4%

150.0% Assumption
25.0% Assume normalized tax rate

Hamilton Lin, CFA, www.wallst-training.com

WALL ST. TRAINING


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D
E
F
$ 311
52 Depreciation & Amortization
D&A, % of Revenue
1.6%
53
54
55 Note: Fiscal year ends January 31 of the next year.

80613502.xls<IS>

G
$ 384
1.6%

H
$ 552
1.6%

I
$ 662
1.6%

J
$ 702
1.6%

K
$ 765
1.6%

L
$ 857
1.6%

M
N
O
$ 986 % of Revenue
1.6%

Hamilton Lin, CFA, www.wallst-training.com

A B

Amazon.com Inc

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Balance Sheet

WALL ST. TRAINING


P
Q

2010

Estimated
2011

2012

Projected
2013
2014

2015

Notes

From CF statement
365 Days A/R: Revenue * No. Days / 365
365 Days Inv: COGS * No. Days / 365
% of Revenue
Assumption
Sum

($ in millions)

Actual
Fiscal
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash & Equivalents
Marketable Securities
Inventories
Accounts Receivable, Net, and Other
Deferred Tax Assets
Total Current Assets

2009

$ 3,444
2,922
2,171
988
272
$ 9,797

$ 3,777
4,985
3,202
1,587
196
$ 13,747

$ 5,500
5,982
4,002
1,904
167
$ 17,555

$ 7,076
6,341
4,409
2,019
142
$ 19,986

$ 9,228
6,912
4,986
2,200
120
$ 23,447

$ 11,825
7,741
5,785
2,464
102
$ 27,919

$ 15,220
8,902
6,882
2,834
87
$ 33,925

$ 1,290
18
1,234
1,474
$ 13,813

$ 2,414
22
1,349
1,265
$ 18,797

$ 2,152
22
1,349
1,518
$ 22,595

$ 1,649
22
1,349
1,609
$ 24,616

$ 1,084
22
1,349
1,754
$ 27,656

$ 427
22
1,349
1,964
$ 31,681

$ (359) Beg Bal - negative CapEx - Depr


22 Constant; assume no net changes
1,349 Constant; assume no acquisitions
2,259 % of Revenue
$ 37,197 Sum

LIABILITIES
Current Liabilities
Revolver
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses and Other
Accrued Income Taxes
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Current Portion of Capital Leases
Discontinued Operations
Total Current Liabilities

$9
5,605
1,759
$ 7,373

$4
8,051
2,321
$ 10,376

$ 309
9,738
2,785
$ 12,832

$ 10,403
2,952
$ 13,355

$ 11,427
3,218
$ 14,645

$ 12,896
3,604
$ 16,501

$ 14,943
4,145
$ 19,088

From Debt Sweep


365 Days A/P: Expenses * No. Days / 365
% of Revenue
Constant
From Debt Sweep
Constant; assume no net changes
Zero
Sum

Long-Term Liabilities
Commitments and Contingencies
Deferred Income Taxes & Other
Minority Interest
TOTAL LIABILITIES

$ 1,192
$ 8,565

$ 1,561
$ 11,937

$ 2,083
$ 14,915

$ 2,384
$ 15,739

$ 2,685
$ 17,330

$ 2,986
$ 19,487

$ 2,759
$ 21,847

From Debt Sweep


Constant; assume no net changes
Constant
Constant
Sum

SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Common Stock
APIC
Retained Earnings
Treasury Stock
Accumulated Other Comp. Income
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY

$5
5,736
172
(600)
(56)
$ 5,257

$5
6,325
1,324
(600)
(190)
$ 6,864

$5
6,144
2,380
(600)
(190)
$ 7,739

$5
5,963
3,615
(600)
(190)
$ 8,793

$5
5,782
5,125
(600)
(190)
$ 10,122

$5
5,601
7,072
(600)
(190)
$ 11,888

$ 5 Held constant
5,420 Beg Bal + Stock Issued
9,793 Beg Bal + Net Inc - Dividends - Repurchases
(600) Held constant
(190) Constant
$ 14,428 Sum

$ 13,822

$ 18,801

$ 22,654

$ 24,532

$ 27,452

$ 31,375

$ 36,276 Sum

$ (9)

$ (4)

$ (58)

$ 83

$ 204

$ 306

$ 24,509
18,978
328

$ 34,204
26,561
470

$ 41,045
31,750
646

$ 43,507
33,525
772

$ 47,423
36,399
936

$ 53,114
40,608
1,155

43.5
41.8
4.0%
6.0%

53.2
44.0
4.6%
3.7%

53.2
46.0
4.6%
3.7%

53.2
48.0
4.6%
3.7%

53.2
50.0
4.6%
3.7%

53.2
52.0
4.6%
3.7%

15.00%

Fixed Assets, net


Deferred Tax Assets
Goodwill
Other Assets
TOTAL ASSETS

TOTAL LIABILITIES & SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY


Check
Total Revenue
Cost of Sales
Operating, SG&A Expenses
Days Receivable Outstanding
Days Inventories Outstanding
Prepaid, % of Revenue
Other Assets, % of Revenue
80613502.xls<BS>

2.0

$ 921 Calculation
$ 61,081 From Income Statement
46,516 From Income Statement
1,450 From Income Statement
53.2 A/R * 365 / Revenue
54.0 Inventory * 365 / COGS, decrease by .5 days
4.6% Prepaid / Revenue
3.7% Other Assets / Revenue
Hamilton Lin, www.wallst-training.com

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Amazon.com Inc

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Balance Sheet

WALL ST. TRAINING


P
Q

($ in millions)

Fiscal
Days Payable Outstanding
Accrued Liabilities, % of Revenue

1.0

Actual
Estimated
2009
2010
2011
105.97
108.7
109.7
7.2%
6.8%
6.8%

2012
110.7
6.8%

Projected
2013
2014
111.7
112.7
6.8%
6.8%

2015
Notes
113.7 A/P * 365 / Total Expenses, increase by 1 day
6.8% Accrued Liabilities / Revenue

Note: Fiscal year ends January 31 of the next year.

80613502.xls<BS>

Hamilton Lin, www.wallst-training.com

WALL ST. TRAINING


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Cash Flow Statement

Estimated
2011

2012

($ in millions)

Fiscal

Projected
2013
2014

Cash From Operating Activities:


Net Income
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization

$ 1,252
662

$ 1,402
702

$ 1,651
765

$ 2,068
857

Changes in Working Capital:


(Increase)/Decrease in Marketable Securities
(Increase)/Decrease in Inventories
(Increase)/Decrease in Accounts Receivable, Net, and Other
(Increase)/Decrease in Other Assets
Increase/(Decrease) in Accounts Payable
Increase/(Decrease) in Accrued Expenses and Other
Total Change in Working Capital
Total Cash From Operating Activities

$ (997)
(800)
(317)
(253)
1,687
464
$ (216)
$ 1,698

$ (359)
(407)
(114)
(91)
665
167
$ (139)
$ 1,965

$ (571)
(578)
(182)
(145)
1,024
266
$ (185)
$ 2,232

$ (829)
(799)
(264)
(210)
1,469
386
$ (247)
$ 2,678

$ (400)
$ (400)

$ (200)
$ (200)

$ (200)
$ (200)

$ (200)
$ (200)

$ (181)
$ 1,117

$ (181)
$ 1,584

$ (181)
$ 1,851

$ (181)
$ 2,297

606
$ 425

(8)
$ (189)

301
$ 120

301
$ 120

$ 3,777
1,723
$ 5,500
4,639

$ 5,500
1,576
$ 7,076
6,288

$ 7,076
2,152
$ 9,228
8,152

$ 9,228
2,598
$ 11,825
10,527

Cash From Investing Activities:


(Increase) in Capital Expenditures
Total Cash From Investing Activities
Cash From Financing Activities:
Issuance of Common Stock
Common Stock Dividends
Net (Purchase) / Reissuance of Treasury Stock
Cash Available / (Required) Before Debt
Debt Borrowing / (Repayment)
Total Cash From Financing Activities
Beginning Cash Balance
Change in Cash
Ending Cash Balance
Average Cash Balance

2015

Calculation

$ 2,823 From Income Statement


986 From Income Statement

$ (1,161) Prior Year less Current Year


(1,097) Prior Year less Current Year
(370) Prior Year less Current Year
(295) Prior Year less Current Year
2,047 Current Year less Prior Year
541 Current Year less Prior Year
$ (334) Sum
$ 3,475 Sum

$ (200) Assumption
$ (200) Sum

$ (181) Assumption
- Assumption
- Assumption
$ 3,094 Sum of CFO, CFI and CFF items
301 From Debt schedule
$ 120 Sum of all CFF items, exclude row 30 !!
$ 11,825
3,395
$ 15,220
13,523

From Balance Sheet


Sum of CFO, CFI and CFF
Sum => This goes to BS
Average of Beg and End Balance

Note: Fiscal year ends January 31 of the next year.

80613502.xls<CF>

Hamilton Lin, www.wallst-training.com

WALL ST. TRAINING


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Amazon.com Inc

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Debt & Interest Schedule

Estimated
2011

2012

($ in millions)

Fiscal
Cash Available/(Required) Before Debt
Plus: Beginning Cash on Balance Sheet
Less: Minimum Cash Balance
Net Mandatory Debt Repayment / Borrowings
Cash Before Discretionary Debt Repayment / (Borrowing)

Projected
2013
2014

2015

Calculation

$ 1,117
3,777
(5,500)
301
$ (305)

$ 1,584
5,500
(5,500)
301
$ 1,885

$ 1,851
7,076
(5,500)
301
$ 3,728

$ 2,297
9,228
(5,500)
301
$ 6,325

$ 3,094 From CF statement


11,825 Balance Sheet
(5,500) Assumption
301 Sum of mandatory pmts & borrowings
$ 9,720 Sum

$ 1,561
221
80
$ 1,862
$ 1,712

$ 1,862
221
80
$ 2,163
$ 2,013

$ 2,163
221
80
$ 2,464
$ 2,314

$ 2,464
221
80
$ 2,765
$ 2,615

$ 2,765
221
80
$ 3,066
$ 2,916

$4
305
$ 309
$ 156

$ 309
(309)
$ $ 154

$ $ $ -

$ $ $ -

$ $ $ -

Total Debt, Beginning Balance


Less: Mandatory Debt Repayment
Plus: Borrowings
Revolver Debt Borrowing / (Repayment)
Total Debt, Ending Balance
Less: Current Portion
Less: Revolver
Total Long Term Debt

$ 1,565
221
80
305
$ 2,171
221
(309)
$ 2,083

$ 2,171
221
80
(309)
$ 2,163
221
$ 2,384

$ 2,163
221
80
$ 2,464
221
$ 2,685

$ 2,464
221
80
$ 2,765
221
$ 2,986

Beginning Cash Balance


Ending Cash Balance
Average Cash Balance

$ 3,777
5,500
4,639

$ 5,500
7,076
6,288

$ 7,076
9,228
8,152

$ 9,228
11,825
10,527

3.0%
6.0%
3.0%

3.0%
6.0%
3.0%

3.0%
6.0%
3.0%

3.0%
6.0%
3.0%

$ 113

$ 165

$ 212

$ 277

$ 94
0

$ 112
9

$ 130
-

$ 148
-

Tranche 1
Beginning Balance
Mandatory Debt Repayment
Borrowings Refinance
Ending Balance
Average Balance

$ 1,561

Revolver
Beginning Balance
Discretionary Sweep
Ending Balance
Average Balance

$4

Interest Rates
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Tranche 1
Revolver
Interest Income
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Interest Expense
Tranche 1
Revolver

80613502.xls<Debt>

Equal to prior year's end balance


Given, Debt Footnote
Assumption, refinance mandatory repayment
Sum
Average of Beg and End Balance

Equal to prior year's end balance


Balancing equation
Sum
Average of Beg and End Balance

$ 2,765 Sum of prior year's end balances


221 From above
80 From above
- Reference revolver sweep, to CF
$ 3,066 Sum
(307)
$ 2,759
$ 11,825 From CF statement
15,220 From CF statement
13,523 Calculation

3.0% Assumption
6.0% Wtg'ed avg estimate
3.0% Assumption

(1 = Beginning, 2 = Average)
$ 355 If switch = 1, take interest rate *
beginning balance, else rate *
average balance
$ 166
Hamilton Lin, www.wallst-training.com

WALL ST. TRAINING


A B
C
D
E
F
G
51 Total Interest Expense
52 Note: Fiscal year ends January 31 of the next year.

80613502.xls<Debt>

J
$ 94

K
$ 121

L
$ 130

$ 148

M
$ 166

Hamilton Lin, www.wallst-training.com

WALL ST. TRAINING


A B

Amazon.com Inc

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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Estimated
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

($ in millions, except per share data)

Fiscal
EBITDA
EBIT
Less: Cash Taxes @ 25.0%
Tax-effected EBIT
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization
Less: Capital expenditures
Plus / (Less): Change in net working capital
Unlevered free cash flow

25.0%

WACC @
6.5%
NPV of Unlevered free cash flow @ 6.5%
EBITDA MULTIPLE METHOD
Terminal Value
EBITDA Multiple

$ 2,185
1,523
(381)
$ 1,142
662
(400)
(216)
$ 1,189

Projected

$ 2,360
1,658
(414)
$ 1,243
702
(200)
(139)
$ 1,606

$ 2,620
1,855
(464)
$ 1,391
765
(200)
(185)
$ 1,771

$ 2,987
2,130
(533)
$ 1,598
857
(200)
(247)
$ 2,007

$ 3,497
2,511
(628)
$ 1,883
986
(200)
(334)
$ 2,334

$ 7,263

9.0x
10.0x

Undiscounted Discounted
$ 31,469
$ 22,969
$ 34,966
$ 25,521

DCF Range (Implied Enterprise Value)

$ 30,232 $ 32,784

Equity Value (a)


Implied Price per Share (b)

$ 32,444
$ 71.15

$ 34,996
$ 76.75

Total Debt
Cash
Net Debt
S/Out

$ 1,565
(3,777)
$ (2,212)
456.0

PERPETUITY GROWTH METHOD


Terminal Value
Perpetuity Growth Rate

2.0%
3.0%

Undiscounted Discounted
$ 42,684
$ 31,154
$ 55,417
$ 40,448

DCF Range (Implied Enterprise Value)

$ 38,417 $ 47,711

Equity Value (a)


Implied Price per Share (b)

$ 40,629
$ 49,923
$ 89.10 $ 109.48

Note: Fiscal year ends January 31 of the next year.


Note: Present Values as of January 31, 2010.
(a) Assumes -$2,212M of net debt.
(b) Assumes 456.0MM shares outstanding.

80613502.xls<DCF>

Hamilton Lin, CFA, www.wallst-training.com

WALL ST. TRAINING


A

Amazon.com Inc

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Illustrative Reference Range

(All figures in millions, except per share data)

Methodology

Statistic

Relevant Multiple
Range

Analysis of Selected Publicly Traded Discount Retailers


Net Revenue
2009A
$ 34,204
0.50x
2010E
41,045
0.40x
2011P
43,507
0.40x

Implied Enterprise
Value

Implied Equity
Value

Implied Price per


Share

0.55x
0.55x
0.50x

$ 17,102
$ 16,418
$ 17,403

$ 18,812
$ 22,575
$ 21,754

$ 19,314
$ 18,630
$ 19,615

$ 21,024
$ 24,787
$ 23,966

$ 42.36
$ 40.86
$ 43.02

$ 46.11
$ 54.36
$ 52.56

EBITDA

2009A
2010E
2011P

$ 1,958
2,185
2,360

7.5x
7.0x
6.5x

8.0x
7.5x
7.0x

$ 14,685
$ 15,298
$ 15,340

$ 15,664
$ 16,391
$ 16,520

$ 16,897
$ 17,510
$ 17,552

$ 17,876
$ 18,603
$ 18,732

$ 37.05
$ 38.40
$ 38.49

$ 39.20
$ 40.80
$ 41.08

EBIT

2009A
2010E
2011P

$ 1,406
1,523
1,658

11.0x
9.0x
8.0x

11.5x
9.5x
8.5x

$ 15,466
$ 13,707
$ 13,263

$ 16,169
$ 14,469
$ 14,092

$ 17,678
$ 15,919
$ 15,475

$ 18,381
$ 16,681
$ 16,304

$ 38.77
$ 34.91
$ 33.94

$ 40.31
$ 36.58
$ 35.75

EPS

2009A
2010E
2011P

$ 2.53
2.74
3.07

19.0x
15.5x
12.5x

20.0x
16.0x
13.5x

$ 19,676
$ 17,189
$ 15,314

$ 20,828
$ 17,815
$ 16,716

$ 21,888
$ 19,401
$ 17,526

$ 23,040
$ 20,027
$ 18,928

$ 48.00
$ 42.55
$ 38.43

$ 50.53
$ 43.92
$ 41.51

$ 200,000

$ 250,000

$ 175,000

$ 225,000

$ 50.00

$ 60.00

$ 53.61
$ 39.20
$ 34.14
$ 45.47

$ 61.11
$ 41.35
$ 35.68
$ 50.53

Reference Range
Analysis of Selected Retail Acquisitions
LTM
Net Revenue
$ 34,204
EBITDA
1,958
EBIT
1,406
EPS
2.53

0.65x
8.0x
9.5x
18.0x

0.75x
8.5x
10.0x
20.0x

Reference Range
Analysis of Selected Premiums Paid
Stock Price 1 Month Prior
$ 55.28
5/7/2010
1 Day Prior
53.23

10.0%
5.0%

20.0%
15.0%

Reference Range
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
EBITDA Multiple Method
Perpetuity Growth Method
Reference Range

9.0x
2.0%

10.0x
3.0%

$ 22,233
$ 15,664
$ 13,357
$ 18,524

$ 25,653
$ 16,643
$ 14,060
$ 20,828

$ 250,000

$ 24,445
$ 17,876
$ 15,569
$ 20,736

$ 27,865
$ 18,855
$ 16,272
$ 23,040

$ 300,000

$ 225,000

$ 275,000

$ 60.00

$ 65.00

$ 25,516
$ 23,275

$ 28,037
$ 25,702

$ 27,728
$ 25,487

$ 30,249
$ 27,914

$ 60.81
$ 55.89

$ 66.34
$ 61.21

$ 250,000

$ 275,000

$ 225,000

$ 250,000

$ 60.00

$ 65.00

$ 30,232
$ 38,417

$ 32,784
$ 47,711

$ 32,444
$ 40,629

$ 34,996
$ 49,923

$ 71.15
89.10

$ 76.75
109.48

$ 225,000

$ 250,000

$ 200,000

$ 225,000

$ 50.00

$ 60.00

Note: Fiscal year ends January 31 of the next year.

80613502.xlsRef Range

Hamilton Lin, CFA, www.wallst-training.com

WALL ST. TRAINING


A
1

Amazon.com Inc

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7
8
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10
11
12
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28
29
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38
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40
41
42
43
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45
46

Illustrative Reference Range

$30.00

$40.00

52-week Trading Range


Analysis of Selected Acquisitions
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$47.57
$50.00

$55.99
$60.00
$60.00
$65.00
$60.00
$65.00
$50.00
$60.00
$55.00
$62.50

METHODOLOGY

Illustrative WMT Price per Share

52-week Trading Range


Analysis of Selected Publicly Traded Discount Retailers
Analysis of Selected Acquisitions
Analysis of Selected Premiums Paid
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Reference Range
Current Stock Price

80613502.xlsFootball

min
$47.57
$50.00
$60.00
$60.00
$50.00
$55.00

8.42
10.00
5.00
5.00
10.00
7.50

max
$55.99
$60.00
$65.00
$65.00
$60.00
$62.50

$ 54.20
$ 54.20

0
1

Hamilton Lin, CFA, www.wallst-training.com

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