India Aviation SWOT analysis: Huge Potential, Many Challenges

India's aviation industry presents some considerable opportunity, but has been dragged down by red tape and, more recently, excessive airline capacities amid the downturn in the global economy. Steps are being taken to address the shortcomings, but the industry does face a considerable test over the next 12-18 months. For further analysis, contact our team at CAPA India, or read the upcoming June edition of the Monthly Essential India.

Strengths
Liberal Environment: India's airlines operate in a liberal environment in both the domestic and international spheres. With three major airline groups and four smaller carriers all operating domestic routes, there is no shortage of competition, although this factor combined with excess capacity has tended to depress yields. Nevertheless, carriers are free to operate any domestic routes without seeking permission from the government, and without restriction on pricing. One condition that airlines find onerous however, is the requirement to operate a proportion of ASKs to remote and underdeveloped regions of the country. On the international front, the Indian government has pursued an increasingly liberal approach to bilateral air services agreements with key overseas markets, resulting in greater access for foreign carriers. Emirates for example, the largest foreign carrier by capacity into India, will operate 185 weekly frequencies to ten cities across the country by the end of 2009. India's carriers have a combined international capacity share of just over 36% but face strong competition from foreign carriers, both full service and low cost. Modern Fleet: In light of the fact that much of the growth in Indian aviation has occurred in the last five years, the country's airlines operate a relatively young and modern fleet, ensuring a high quality passenger experience, improved safety and good operational reliability. High Quality: India's airlines offer a good quality product in each of the operating models in existence. Jet Airways and Kingfisher Airlines are competitive in terms of their inflight service against the leading carriers in the world. Kingfisher for example is one just half a dozen global carriers such as Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific, with a Skytrax 5 star rating. In fact it could be argued that the full service product on domestic routes is excessive for the sector lengths involved and results in a higher cost structure, which the passenger does not necessarily see value in paying for. The LCCs too, by and large, offer a comfortable, efficient and reliable service. Until a couple of years ago, Air Deccan was one carrier that had developed a reputation for poor on-time performance, flight cancellations and overbooking, however since being acquired by Kingfisher, most of these operational issues appear to have been resolved. Economic Growth: Economic growth has historically been the primary driver of air traffic, and the relationship has generally been even stronger in developing countries. Between 2004 and 2007, India enjoyed four years averaging 9% per annum GDP growth. This slowed to 6.5% in 2008,

however against the background of a global economic recession, this was a creditable performance. The increased business confidence following the general election result in May 2009 has eased concerns that growth may slow further. The stock market has soared 25% in the last month and the outlook for growth and consumption has improved, which is a positive for the aviation industry. Political Stability: The re-election of the Congress Party, with a stronger majority is expected to allow the new administration to push ahead with further economic reforms, which had to date been blocked by coalition partners. The prospect of a government which has the ability to last its full term and pursue its agenda is extremely encouraging. In addition, Minister Praful Patel, who was the architect of the dramatic transformation of the aviation sector, has retained the portfolio, which brings experience and stability to the aviation industry.

Weaknesses
Airport Infrastructure: The rapid growth in air traffic over the last few years exposed the deficiencies of airport infrastructure across the country. After decades of neglect, many of India's airports were forced to operate well above design capacity. The resulting congestion in the terminals and on the runways delivered a poor experience for the passenger and a costly, inefficient operating environment for the airlines. However, although a weakness today, it is also fair to say that it is becoming less so, as the airport modernisation program starts to deliver results, with new airports in Bangalore and Hyderabad, and improving facilities at Delhi and Mumbai. The upgrade of nonmetro airports remains behind schedule so it may be another 3-4 years before we see good quality facilities across the country, but there are tangible signs of improvement. Airways Infrastructure: Although congestion on the ground is relatively visible, another current area of weakness is the limited investment that has taken place in improving infrastructure for air traffic management. This too results in expensive aircraft holding patterns, indirect flight paths and sub-optimal use of runways. National Carrier: The state-owned carrier, Air India, is in a dire situation. The carrier is estimated to have posted losses of close to USD1 billion in 2008/09, and morale within the bloated workforce is at a low. With no clear direction, management instability at the top and continuing issues with the integration of Air India and Indian Airlines, the carrier is in need of radical restructuring. It is imperative that the government develops a turnaround strategy for Air India as an urgent priority. Deep Pockets: Over the last three years, India's carriers have accumulated billions of dollars in losses and debt. Ironically, a characteristic that would normally be considered a strength - namely deep pockets - has resulted in carriers remaining afloat that would perhaps in other circumstances have failed. With the backing of either the government or large corporations, several carriers have been able to access funding that they might have been denied on a strictly commercial basis as standalone airlines. As a result of the intense competition which has been perpetuated, airlines have struggled to raise fares to break even levels. High Cost Structure: India's airlines operate in a relatively high cost environment, primarily due to the punitive taxation structure. The greatest impact is felt in the area of sales taxation on fuel, which can increase the cost to 60% above the international benchmark. The limitations of airport infrastructure also increase costs due to the fact that carriers are unable to schedule fast turnarounds, resulting in reduced aircraft utilisation. In addition, the fact that high quality ancillary

services such as MRO and training are not currently available in India, means that aircraft and personnel have to be sent overseas. Skilled Resources: Domestic air traffic in India tripled in the five years to 2008, while international passengers doubled. This rate of growth far outstripped the capacity to develop skilled technical and management personnel. The gap was partly addressed by employing expatriates, particularly as pilots, and by learning on the fly. This means there is a lack of in-depth experience and knowledge at all levels. Furthermore, there is an absence of high quality training infrastructure in-country to deliver the resources to support future growth. This lack of personnel affects the government as well and the FAA has expressed its concern at the shortage of qualified safety inspectors within the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). India has been put on notice that unless this issue is addressed, it may be relegated to a Category II nation, which would mean that Indian carriers would not be permitted to increase services to the US.

Opportunities
Market Growth: Despite the rapid expansion of recent years, India has only just scratched the surface of the potential for the aviation sector. Trips per capita remain low even by the standards of other developing countries. China's domestic market is more than four times the size of India's 40 million passengers. Even, Australia, a country with a population of just 21 million, compared with India's 1.1 billion, has a market 25% larger. Similarly on the international front, less than 1% of Indians travel overseas each year. Inbound visitor nunbers at 5.4 million in 2008 for the entire country, were less than for Dubai or Singapore. It is not difficult to see the expansion potential from such a low base as economic growth continues apace. Geographic Location: India is ideally positioned as a major aviation hub at the crossroads between Europe, the Middle East and Asia Pacific. The fact that aviation was a neglected sector for so long has allowed airports such as Dubai and Singapore to effectively establish themselves as offshore hubs for Indian passengers, and they now have a significant head start. However, as India's airports improve, and its airlines receive international awards for their service, there may be an opportunity to leverage its huge home market to compete with these longer established hubs. Lower Costs, Higher Quality: India has already managed to develop a dynamic aviation sector despite, and not because of, its environment. The improvements in airport and airspace infrastructure, the development of indigenous training and maintenance facilities and the potential for fiscal reform, all point to the potential for Indian aviation to increasingly operate in a lower cost, higher quality and more efficient manner. This could in due course lead to an opportunity for India to develop as a global outsourcing hub in areas such as aerospace manufacturing, MRO and training.

Threats
Middle East Aviation: The carriers of the Gulf are aggressively expanding in India, with high frequencies from multiple destinations to their hubs, from where passengers can access extensive global networks. The ability for a passenger for example to travel one-stop from Ahmadabad to Hamburg, or multiple daily frequencies from Mumbai to London, connecting at an attractive hub, is a strength which Indian carriers simply cannot match at present. It will take time and the question is how far ahead will the Middle East carriers be by that stage.

Terrorism: India has seen frequent terrorist activity in recent years. The country has shown great resilience in bouncing back after each attack, however inbound international traffic in particular is sensitive to such events. Similarly the potential for India to develop as a global traffic and services hub is contingent upon it being seen as a safe and attractive destination.