Ambient Insight’s "Learning Technology Innovation"

Webinar Series hosted by Elluminate

Open Learning:
The Emergence of Native Social Learning
Products

Key Findings from Ambient Insight Research:

“2007-2008 Private Investment Trends in the US Learning Technology
Industry”

June 24th, 2009

Sam S. Adkins, Chief Research Officer

Ambient Insight
www.ambientinsight.com

Ambient Insight 2009

 Agenda

• Audience Poll
• Ambient Insight’s Learning Technology Taxonomy
• Convergence Trends
• Open Learning: Waves of Innovation
• Open Learning: The Migration from Technology to Community
• Q&A

Ambient Insight 2009

 Introductions: Audience Poll
What sector do you work in?
A. K-12 Academic
B. Higher Education Academic
C. Business and Corporate
D. Government

What is your primary job role?

A. Instructional Designer
B. Graphic Designer or Technical Developer
C. Teacher, Trainer, or Training Manager
D. Supplier, Vendor, or Consultant

Where are you located?

A. Canada and US
B. Europe
C. Latin America
D. Asia

Ambient Insight 2009

 Ambient Insight’s Learning Technology
Research Taxonomy
Download Detailed Research Taxonomy at:
http://www.ambientinsight.com/Default.aspx

Eight Buyer Segments

Corporations State and Associations,
Higher Federal
Consumer PreK-12 and Local NGOs, and Healthcare
Education Government
Businesses Government Non-Profits

Buy Six Types of Pedagogically-defined Learning Products

Social
Self-paced Digital Video, Collaboration- Simulation & Cognitive Mobile
eLearning Text, & Audio based Game-based Learning Learning
Courseware Reference Learning Learning

From Four Types of Suppliers

Software as a
Packaged Content Custom Services Installed Technology
Service (SaaS)

Ambient Insight 2009

 Partial List of Ambient Insight’s Clients
Ambient Insight is an integrity-based market research firm that uses predictive
analytics to identify revenue opportunities for suppliers.

• Adobe • Hasbro
• Amazon • IBM
• Apple • Korean Trade Agency
• Dell • Masie Center
• Disney • Microsoft
• Element K • NIIT
• Elluminate • SkillSoft
• Gartner • Thomson Learning
• Global Knowledge • US eGov eLearning Board

Ambient Insight 2009

 Convergence Trends:
Fundamentally New Types of
Learning Products Evolving

Ambient Insight 2009

 1999-2008 Number of US Private Investment Deals
to Learning Technology Companies by Year
Source: “2007-2008 Private Investment Trends in the US Learning Technology Industry”, Ambient Insight, LLC

Deals by Year
180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$1.86 Billion Invested In Learning Technology

Companies in 2007 and 2008
Ambient Insight 2009
 Leading Indicators: 2007-2008 Total Number of
Investment Deals by Learning Product Type
Source: “2007-2008 Private Investment Trends in the US Learning Technology Industry”, Ambient Insight, LLC
2007 2008
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Ambient Insight 2009

 Leading Indicators: 2007-2008 Total Number of
Investment Deals by Learning Product Type
Source: “2007-2008 Private Investment Trends in the US Learning Technology Industry”, Ambient Insight, LLC
2007 2008
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Strong Convergence with Social Networking

Ambient Insight 2009

 Leading Indicators: 2007-2008 Total Number of
Investment Deals by Learning Product Type
Source: “2007-2008 Private Investment Trends in the US Learning Technology Industry”, Ambient Insight, LLC
2007 2008
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Strong Convergence with Social Networking

Ambient Insight 2009 Nascent Convergence with Social Networking

 Collaborative-Social Network Learning, Video-based Referenceware, and
Mobile Learning Convergence: All Roads Lead to Mobility

Video over Internet Technology (VoIP2)

Remote
App Access Virtual
Sharing Labs User-
White Generated 4G: WiMAX,
Boarding Content
Multi- WiFi, and
Virtualization Technology Video Long Term
Panes Evolution
Lecture (LTE)
IM Capture
Streaming
Media
Collaboration Massively
Chat and Social Distributed
Messaging Networking Mobile
Collaboration
Technology With Handheld
Multimedia Device
Polling
Devices Aware
Location
Aware
Location-
eMail Presence Based
Voice over Internet Technology (VoIP1) Social Services
Network (LBS)
Closed Analysis
Captioning
Automated
VoIP Voice UI Translation Presence and Identity
Management Technology

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ambient Insight 2009

 Virtual Worlds Integrate Social Networking

• Forterra Systems
• Qwak Forums
• Unisfair
• VastPark

Ambient Insight 2009

 Mobile Social Learning
• Dozens of “pure” Mobile Social Networks: MocoSpace, Mixi
(Japan), Aki-Aki (Germany), MyGamma (Singapore), Bliin
and Gypsii (Netherlands), etc.
• Mobile Social Learning Products:
– Cha Cha
– 542542 (KGB)
– Wikitude (Mobilizy)
– Aardvark (Mechanical Zoo)

Ambient Insight 2009

 Open Learning: Waves of
Innovation

Ambient Insight 2009

 The Rising Tide of Open Learning

Commercial Products Open Source Products Open Learning Products

Number
Adoption Rate – Revenue and Reach

of US
Users in
Millions

180
150
120
90
60
30
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Time on the Market

Source: “Waves of Innovation: From Open Source to Open Learning”, Sam S. Adkins (2007)

Ambient Insight 2009

 The Rising Tide of Open Learning

Commercial Products Open Source Products Open Learning Products

Number
Adoption Rate – Revenue and Reach

of US
Users in
Millions

180
150
120
90
60
30
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Time on the Market

Source: “Waves of Innovation: From Open Source to Open Learning”, Sam S. Adkins (2007)

Ambient Insight 2009

 2009 Snapshot of the Waves of Learning Product
Innovation
Commercial Products Open Source Products Open Learning Products
Adoption Rate – Revenue and Reach

Peer-
generated Collaboration
Audio, Products
Video, &
Text Self-paced
eLearning
Content

Mobile Highest Adoption Phases

Learning
Virtual LMS
Social Products
Learning
CMS
Products
Social Authoring
Learning Tools
Cognitive
Apps Learning

Product R&D Market Creation Value Creation Commoditization Value Migration

Phase Phase Phase Phase Phase
Addressable Market Innovation Important Features Important Price Important New Products in
Research Important Early Adoption Wide Adoption Revenues Decline Higher Demand

Time on the Market

Ambient Insight 2009

 The Waves of Learning Product Innovation
Source: “Waves of Innovation: From Open Source to Open Learning”, Sam S. Adkins (2007)

First Wave Second Wave Third Wave

Learning Platform Commercial Proprietary Open Source Open Learning (Web 2.0)
Free with some
Licensing Model Fee-based None
restrictions
Value Proposition Product Services Community Experience
Dominant Product LMS CMS (TBD)
Subscriptions and
Business Model Per-seat Product Fees Service Fees
Advertising
Design Focus Administrators Practitioners Learners
Learning Paradigm Compliance Customization Personalization
Key Output Reports Courses Collaborative Content
Primary Goal Track Usage Knowledge Transfer Social Networking
Locus of Control Administrators Instructors Learners
Instructor Role SME or Marginal Integral Participatory
Consistent Delivery and
Primary Innovation Pedagogical Adaptation Social Engineering
Tracking

“These waves of innovation represent a shift from centralized sources of

learning technology to widely distributed peer-to-peer learning communities.”

Ambient Insight 2009

 Leading Indicators: 2007-2008 Percent of Investment
Deals by Target Customer
Source: “2007-2008 Private Investment Trends in the US Learning Technology Industry”, Ambient Insight, LLC

2007 2008
60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Consumer Corporate Healthcare Higher Education PreK-12

Consumer-facing Companies Attracting the Largest Investments

Ambient Insight 2009

 Open Learning: The Migration
from Technology to Community

Ambient Insight 2009

 PreSchoolers in Virtual Social Worlds
• About 50 million children in the world are virtual world
participants
– Webkinz
– Club Penguin (Disney)
– Adventure Rock (BBC)
– Kids Play (PBS)
– Whyville
– My Tiny Planets
• Mind Candy (Moshi Monsters) buys Tutpup in early 2009 –
“The site allows kids from around the world to play each other
in multi-player maths and spelling challenges.”
• Lego Universe launches 2010 – “massively multiplayer”
(MMOG) gamespace. “Within LEGO Universe, players will
safely create, build, quest, and socialize together.”
Ambient Insight 2009
 How do Children Behave in Virtual Worlds?
Source: http://www.childreninvirtualworlds.org.uk/pdfs/Gauntlett_and_Jackson_May_2008.pdf

• David Gauntlett and Lizzie Jackson, University of

Westminster, studied child behavior in Adventure Rock and
identified eight different “types” of virtual world users:

• Self-stampers
Sociable
• Social climbers
• Life-system builders
• Fighters
• Nurturers
• Collector-consumers
• Power-users
Solitary
• Explorer-investigators

Ambient Insight 2009

 Vast Amount of Consumer Social Learning Products
Now on the Market

• Language Learning
• Test Preparation
• Healthcare
• “How-to” sites with user-
generated content
• Targeted Age Groups

Ambient Insight 2009

 Social Test Prep and Homework Help for Consumers

• Grokit - combines social learning

and gaming
• Cramster.com’s “community is
made up of high school and college
students, educators, parents, and
subject enthusiasts with the
common goal of sharing information
and helping students excel in their
classes.”

Ambient Insight 2009

 2007-2008 - Large Infusion of Investment Funds into
“How-to” Sites with User-generated Content

• “How-to” sites:
– 5min
– eHow
– Expert Village
– how to
– howstuffworks
– Instructables
– monkeysee
– sclipo
– tipstrs
– videojug
– wikiHow
– MondBites

Ambient Insight 2009

 2007-2008 - Large Infusion of Investment Funds into
“How-to” Sites with User-generated Content

• “How-to” sites:
– 5min
– eHow
– Expert Village
– how to
– howstuffworks
– Instructables
– monkeysee
– sclipo
– tipstrs
– videojug
– wikiHow
– MondBites

Ambient Insight 2009

 Targeting Consumer Demographics
• Eons.com targets “boomers” and includes
brain training games across five cognitive
areas
• PatientsLikeMe - “Learn from real-world
treatment and symptom reports, forum
discussions, health profiles, one-on-one
conversations and more.”
• MomJunction - “Ask questions here and your
network can help get you the answer you
need.”

Ambient Insight 2009

 K-12 and Higher Education
• ePortfolios integrating Social Networking (FreeFolio)
• ePortfolios evolve into “pure” Social Networks (Elgg)
• Educational Facebook Applications (Inigral, Cramster, Teach the People)
• Composica – “social authoring and social learning”
• Communities:
– Encyclopedia of Life
– Student.com
– CampusBug
– LearnCentral

Ambient Insight 2009

 Corporate-facing Learning Technology Suppliers
Go Social
• OutStart’s TrainingEdge.com - “collaborative social learning”

• Knowledge Planet and Shared Insight transform into Mzinga (late 2007)

• Saba Social (late 2008)

• MindTouch

• SelectMinds

Ambient Insight 2009

 Healthcare CME Goes Social
• Sermo (designed for Physicians): “Know more, Know
earlier”
• your credentials and pursue continuing education.

• Includes Free Online CME: “Sermo enables you to earn

credits on your own time, at your own convenience. So it’s
easier than ever to renew your credentials and pursue
continuing education.”
Ambient Insight 2009
 Q&A

Email:
sam@ambientinsight.com

Ambient Insight 2009

 Upcoming Webinars in Ambient Insight’s
“Learning Technology Innovation” Series

• Cognitive Learning Innovations for Consumers:

Brain Fitness and Brain Trainers
August 19th, 2009 - 2pm Eastern/11am Pacific

• Innovation in Educational Technology: The

Virtualization of K-12 and Higher Education
October 21st, 2009 - 2pm Eastern/11am Pacific

• Learning on the Fourth Screen: Innovations in

Location-based Learning
December 16th, 2009 - 2pm Eastern/11am Pacific

Ambient Insight 2009

 Ambient Insight Research Sources
www.ambientinsight.com

– 2007-2008 Private Investment Trends in the US Learning

Technology Industry
– The US Market for Learning Technology Products and
Services: 2008-2013 Forecast and Analysis
– The US Market for Mobile Learning Products and Services:
2008-2013 Forecast and Analysis
– Snapshot of the US Market for Mobile Brain Trainer
Products: 2008-2013 Forecast and Analysis
– The US Corporate Market for Self-paced eLearning
Products and Services: 2008-2013 Forecast
– Private Investment Trends in the US Learning Technology
Industry: 1999-2008 Longitudinal Analysis
– The US Corporate Market for Learning Services: 2007-2012
Forecast and Analysis
– The US Market for Handheld and Mobile Game-based
Learning Products: 2007-2012 Forecast and Analysis

Ambient Insight 2009