Peter Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 535-6203 Rubenstein Associates, Inc.

Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-2012 FOR RELEASE: JANUARY 27,

ROMNEY PULLS AHEAD IN SEE-SAW FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; MEN SHIFT FROM GINGRICH TO ROMNEY
Just four days before the nations first big-state presidential primary, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney opens up a 38 29 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republican likely voters in Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 6 percent are undecided, but 32 percent say they might change their mind by Tuesday. This compares to results of a January 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWINuh-pe-ack) University, showing Romney with 36 percent of likely primary voters to Gingrichs 34 percent. Wednesdays survey showed Gingrich ahead 40 34 percent among voters surveyed after the South Carolina primary. In todays survey, men back Romney 36 29 percent, a shift from January 25, when men backed Gingrich 37 33 percent. Romney leads 40 30 percent among women, virtually unchanged. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul has 14 percent of likely primary voters today, with 12 percent for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Romney gets a 61 28 percent favorability rating from likely primary voters, compared to 50 38 percent favorable for Gingrich, 53 19 percent favorable for Santorum and a negative 35 42 percent for Paul. Speaker Newt Gingrichs momentum from his South Carolina victory appears to have stalled and Gov. Mitt Romney seems to be pulling away in Florida, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Romney also has a better favorability rating from likely primary voters, which supports his lead in the horse race. Of course, with four days before Election Day, there is time for another reversal. Three in 10 voters say they might change their mind. -more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/January 27, 2012 page 2 With the debates now over, Gingrich will need some other way to reverse the tide that appears to be going against him, Brown added. From January 24 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 580 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table includes leaners and early voters) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Gingrich Romney Santorum Paul SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 29% 38 12 14 1 6 29% 36 10 19 5 30% 40 14 8 2 6 36% 34 15 10 1 4 16% 50 6 20 1 5 39% 29 18 6 2 6 27% 49 10 9 1 3 41% 20 18 16 1 4 24% 47 10 12 1 6

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Gingrich Romney Santorum Paul SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 30% 43 12 11 2 3 29% 36 12 15 1 7

AGE IN YEARS..... 18-49 50-64 65+ 17% 41 14 22 1 6 36% 34 12 12 6 32% 43 9 9 2 4

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 27% 30 9 21 2 12 23% 45 12 18 2 37% 36 14 9 1 3 30% 44 13 11 2

1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.. CANDIDATE CHOICE IN PRIMARY Tot NG MR Mind made up Might change DK/NA 67% 32 1 70% 29 1 67% 32 1

2. Is your opinion of - Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 50% 38 9 4 52% 38 6 4 48% 37 12 3 60% 32 7 2 34% 52 11 3 59% 29 10 2 49% 40 7 4 65% 29 4 2 44% 42 10 4

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 55% 37 6 2 48% 38 10 4

AGE IN YEARS..... 18-49 50-64 65+ 45% 39 14 3 53% 40 5 3 53% 35 8 4

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 41% 35 20 4 48% 40 7 4 60% 33 6 1 55% 40 4 1

3. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 61% 28 9 2 60% 32 7 2 63% 24 11 2 63% 29 7 1 67% 22 11 56% 31 11 2 73% 20 5 2 61% 33 5 1 64% 25 8 3

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 72% 23 4 1 56% 30 11 2

AGE IN YEARS..... 18-49 50-64 65+ 55% 30 15 63% 29 6 2 70% 21 6 4

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 48% 29 21 2 66% 30 2 2 63% 27 8 1 73% 23 3 1

4. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 53% 19 26 2 54% 23 21 2 51% 15 32 2 60% 14 25 1 43% 27 28 3 63% 14 21 2 48% 21 30 1 67% 17 15 1 48% 18 31 3

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 61% 18 20 1 49% 20 29 3

AGE IN YEARS..... 18-49 50-64 65+ 48% 23 29 1 56% 18 24 2 53% 15 27 4

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 41% 21 37 1 52% 18 27 4 58% 19 23 65% 20 15 -

5. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 35% 42 20 3 42% 42 13 3 28% 43 27 3 33% 47 17 3 42% 33 25 29% 51 19 1 33% 40 25 2 39% 49 11 2 33% 41 24 3

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 39% 43 15 2 34% 41 22 3

AGE IN YEARS..... 18-49 50-64 65+ 44% 34 22 34% 43 19 3 29% 48 19 4

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME <30K 30-50 50-100 >100 37% 37 26 40% 33 25 2 34% 51 14 1 39% 42 18 2