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February 7, 2012
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) (36.1) (10.8) 463 (37.5) 2QFY12 771.5 110.2 14.3 51.4 % chg (qoq) 4.2 19.2 205.5 6.6
`234 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Capital Goods 1,690 1.6 588/173 683,417 10 17,622 5,335 BGRE.BO BGRL@IN
BGR Energys (BGR) results were disappointing for 3QFY2012, as expected. The companys top line for the quarter declined on account of a high base, leading to downbeat earnings growth. Amidst execution concerns, management has guided revenue of ~`3,400cr for FY2012E, which is in a stark contrast to the earlier guidance of `4,800cr and well below our conservative estimates of `4,196cr. Hence, we revise downwards our FY2012E/FY2013E revenue estimates by 20.3%/7.6% and earnings estimates by 18.0%/18.9%. The stock continues to remain range-bound opaque visibility on new orders remains an overhang, thus capping any upside to the stock. We remain Neutral on the stock. Execution decelerates as expected, positive surprise on margins: The companys top line declined by 36.1% yoy to `803.7cr (`1,257cr), which was lower by 10.8% compared to our (below street) expectation of `901.1cr. On the EBITDA front, the companys margin reported a sharp expansion of 463bp yoy to 16.3%, (est. 12%), which can mainly be attributed to higher proportion of revenue from the BoP vertical. Interest cost jumped by 175% yoy/53% qoq to `46.2cr, mainly due to high working capital borrowings. Subdued top-line growth and high interest cost resulted in PAT declining by 37.5% yoy to `54.7cr (`87.6cr). Outlook and valuation: BGR's working capital has seen severe deterioration over the past few quarters (from 74 days in FY2010 to 225 days in 1HFY2012), mainly due to high receivables. Amid issues impairing the power sector, credit availability may harden for SEBs, as banks have already chosen to remain risk-averse. Hence, in our view, tight liquidity is likely to transmit negatively on BGR's books. Along with this, the BTG venture is expected to stretch its balance sheet we expect the leverage to rise from 1.3x in 1HFY2012 to 2.4x in FY2013. At the CMP, the stock is trading at PE multiple of 8.6x FY2013E EPS, which we believe is reasonable amidst structural issues (slowdown of order inflow in the BTG space and high leverage) faced by the company. Hence, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 81.1 4.9 3.7 10.3
3m 0.3
1yr (2.3)
(31.5) (56.8)
FY2010 3,073 59.2 201 74.4 11.2 28.0 8.4 2.4 31.7 22.1 0.5 4.6
FY2011 4,750 54.5 323 60.5 11.3 44.8 5.2 1.8 39.0 24.0 0.4 3.8
FY2012E 3,346 (29.6) 213 (34.0) 14.3 29.6 7.9 1.6 21.0 13.4 1.2 8.5
FY2013E 4,170 24.6 196 (8.1) 11.5 27.2 8.6 1.4 17.3 10.1 1.1 9.6
Shailesh Kanani
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6829 shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
Hemang Thaker
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6817 hemang.thaker@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 802.3 1.4 803.7 0.2 587.4 73.1 48.2 6.0 36.7 4.6 672.4 131.3 16.3 46.2 4.1 81.0 10.1 26.3 32.5 54.7 6.8 7.6
3QFY11 1,251 5.8 1,257 (3.2) 1,013.3 80.4 41.5 3.3 58.1 4.6 1,110 147.2 11.7 16.8 3.4 1.7 128.7 10.2 41.1 32.0 87.6 7.0 12.1
% chg (yoy) (35.9) (36.1) (42.0) (7.3) 16.1 (36.9) (39.4) (10.8) 175.4 20.4 (37.0) (36.1) (37.5)
2QFY12 770.6 0.9 771.5 582.4 75.5 41.8 5.4 37.1 4.8 661.3 110.2 14.3 30.2 4.0 76.1 9.9 24.7 32.5 51.4 6.7 7.1
% chg (qoq) 4.1 4.2 0.9 15.1 (1.1) 1.7 19.2 14.4 52.9 3.0 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.6
9MFY12 2,304 5.3 2,309.4 0.1 1,746 75.6 124.1 5.4 101.9 4.4 1,972 337.6 14.6 94.3 11.9 231.4 10.0 75.1 32.4 156.3 6.8 21.7
9MFY11 3,290 8.9 3,299 (4.9) 2,679 81.2 107.8 3.3 133.7 4.1 2,916 383.3 11.6 42.2 9.8 7 338.2 10.3 112.3 33.2 225.9 6.8 31.3
% chg (yoy) (30.0) (30.0) (34.8) 15.1 (23.8) (32.4) (11.9) 123.6 21.3 (31.6) (33.2) (30.8)
3QFY12 75.2 727.1 802.3 9.2 118.1 127.2 9.4 90.6 12.2 16.2 15.9
3QFY11 63.2 1,188 1,251 5.0 138.8 143.8 5.1 94.9 7.9 11.7 11.5
2QFY12 91.5 679.1 770.6 18.2 88.0 106.2 11.9 88.1 19.9 13.0 13.8
9MFY12 224.9 2,079 2,304 29.8 296.0 325.7 9.8 90.2 13.2 14.2 14.1
9MFY11 144.7 3,145 3,290 9.3 364.2 373.5 4.4 95.6 6.4 11.6 11.4
Impressive EBITDAM, driven by the BoP segment: For 3QFY2012, the companys EBITDAM expanded sharply by 463bp yoy to 16.3%, highest ever in any quarter. Margin expansion was mainly on account of higher contribution of the high-margin BoP and capital goods segments. Revenue mix in terms of EPC/BoP for the quarter stood at 38% for EPC and 62% for BoP. On the EBITDA front, the companys margin reported a sharp expansion of 463bp yoy to 16.3%, (est. 12%), which can be mainly attributed to higher proportion of revenue from the BoP vertical. As per management, BoP orders executed embedded a price variation clause (in contrast with earlier fixed priced orders), which enabled greater leverage on the operating front. However, we are not convinced by the same and the reason for such high margins remains a mystery for us. Interest cost jumped by 175% yoy/53% qoq to `46.2cr, mainly due to high working capital borrowings. Subdued top-line growth and high interest cost resulted in PAT declining by 37.5% yoy to `54.7cr (`87.6cr).
February 7, 2011
Order book: The company secured one single order worth `1,700cr, thus taking its order book tally to ~`8,200cr, as of 3QFY2012. The order backlog mainly consists of EPC/BoP power projects. Management indicated that NTPC bulk order (four TG sets worth `3,000cr) is likely to get booked in 4QFY2012. Delays in acquiring land for project sites have led to deferral in awarding these orders. In addition, management cited an encouraging order pipeline worth 6,000MW comprising three EPC projects from SEBs. On the long pending RRVUNL order, MoEF has recently issued clearance, suggesting speedy finalization on this order. However, we remain cautious on this order, as further delay in awarding cannot be ruled out, in our view.
9,523
9,397
9,317
8,000
7,500
February 7, 2011
7,270
8,200
FY2013E Var. (%) (20.3) (8.6) 183bp (18.0) (17.9) (9.3) 2.7 Earlier estimates 4,513 520 11.5 242 33.6 6,350 11,383 Revised estimates 4,170 481 11.5 196 27.2 5,760 11,398 Var. (%) (7.6) (7.4) (18.9) (19.1) (9.3) 0.1 3,346 480 14.3 213 29.6 5,237 9,807
Revised estimates
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Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets OB/Sales Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis(%) EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Pre-tax) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to Equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.4 1.3 5.6 0.2 0.4 3.5 (0.1) (0.3) 6.2 0.3 0.5 8.6 2.1 4.8 3.1 2.4 5.9 2.7 22.4 5 133 100 95 19.6 3 190 182 107 20.1 2 194 209 74 22.0 2 197 186 74 6.5 6 388 273 228 2.5 7 310 212 189 22.3 38.0 31.4 17.0 31.4 22.3 22.1 44.9 31.7 24.0 45.6 39.0 13.4 18.2 21.0 10.1 12.2 17.3 9.9 68.3 3.8 37.8 25.8 4.9 0.6 38.9 10.4 66.0 3.0 31.2 20.6 6.3 0.3 24.6 10.9 66.0 4.1 44.4 29.3 4.7 0.0 29.3 10.9 67.2 4.0 43.8 29.4 3.8 0.1 32.5 13.9 67.5 1.3 17.6 11.9 4.9 1.3 20.9 11.0 67.5 1.1 11.9 8.0 3.8 2.3 17.6 12.1 12.1 12.9 2.0 65.8 16.0 16.0 17.1 3.0 78.3 28.0 28.0 29.4 7.0 98.1 44.8 44.8 47.2 10.0 131.9 29.6 29.6 31.8 10.0 149.8 27.2 27.2 30.2 10.0 165.3 19.3 18.2 3.6 0.9 1.1 11.2 1.7 2.1 14.6 13.7 3.0 1.3 0.9 8.5 1.3 4.9 8.4 8.0 2.4 3.0 0.5 4.6 1.0 3.3 5.2 5.0 1.8 4.3 0.4 3.8 0.8 1.7 7.9 7.4 1.6 4.3 1.2 8.5 0.9 2.9 8.6 7.7 1.4 4.3 1.1 9.6 1.0 2.7 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
February 7, 2011
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
February 7, 2011
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