A.

Description of Study The goal of this study is to see if there is any relationship between a state and its mortality rate due to Alzheimer's Disease. I hope to learn that based on where the older person with Alzheimer's is, they have a higher chance of dying. The rates referenced here are per 100,000 people diagnosed with Alzheimer's. I am interested in this because my great great grandmother is 93, and she has Alzheimer's. I am interested in this not because I want her to die, but because I think it is awesome that she has survived so long with it. Also, my initial impression is that there is a correlation. B. Data Collection I found the data on www.alz.org, a website that was created by the Alzheimer's Association. They were started in 1980, and they are the world's leading voluntary health organization in Alzheimer's care, support, and research. The data I used was found in a 2011 Alzheimer's Disease Facts and Figures online booklet created by the Alzheimer's Association. They collected the data in America. They do not list a specific publishing place since it was intended to be online. Once I had the data, I assigned each state a number 01-51. I found a random digit table online, dropped my pencil on it with my eyes closed, and ended up starting at line 120. After crossing out the repeats, I matched the number with the state selected, giving my random sample of 40. C. Data Presentation The histogram is slightly skewed right, although it is arguable that it could be normal. However, I would say that it is skewed right because the outcomes would be odd if they were any higher. Having a 91% mortality rate due to Alzheimer's in one state is outrageous and unrealistic. It is clear in the data that a lot of the state's rates fall in the 20%-40% range. While all Ogive plots have an upward trend, there is a visible increase in this data. This makes it clear that a lot of the data is clustered in a certain range. The data indicates that approximately 85% of states have an Alzheimer's caused death rate below 33%. The boxplot once again reaffirms that this data is skewed right. There are however, three outliers (North Dakota, Nevada, and Utah). The boxplot itself appears symmetric, but the placement on the graph is slightly to the left. This can be interpreted as the fact that the death rates due to Alzheimer's by state are going to be towards the lower numbers in general. The Normal Quantile Plot shows that for the most part, the states have a predictable path. However, the one outlier (North Dakota) causes a larger tilt in the line. This data further enforces that the data is normal, which means that the data would be normally distributed if it weren't for the outlier. This verifies that the trend created by the death rates due to Alzheimer's by state is normal. D. Numerical Summaries The mean rate of mortality due to Alzheimer's per state is 27.91. The median is 27.7. The modes are 23.2, 28.2, 27.1, 32.0, and 21.0, each appearing twice. The minimum rate of mortality was 9.7, and the maximum was 61.7. The Q1 of the rate of mortality is 23.2, and the Q3 is 31.7. The range for this data is 52, and the IQR is 8.5. The variance is 81.08 and the standard deviation is 9.00. The outliers are North Dakota (61.7), Nevada (9.7), and Utah (14.9).

E. Analyzing the Distribution The trend of the rates of mortality due to Alzheimer's by state follows an upward trend. While the states themselves are in no particular order, most states fall in a predictable pattern. The shape of the data is skewed right, due to the fact that you would not expect a high mortality rate in general. However, the one outlier to the right, North Dakota, caused some dramatic changes to the graphs. While North Dakota does not necessarily have a lot of deaths, there is also a smaller population there. This could lead to a higher percent since there are fewer people and more deaths. It mostly fits the empirical rule. 32 states fall within one standard deviation, 38 fall within 2, 39 fall within 3, and all of them fall within 4. However, 80% of the states fall within one standard deviation, which is much higher than 68%. By two standard deviations, they do match up with 95%, and then 97.5% fall within three standard deviations. F. Error Evaluation Clearly, there is not a way to tell if someone necessarily died due to Alzheimer's disease. The most we can do is check their mental records and report accordingly. This being said, it is highly possible that we could have a higher mortality rate. However, many people do die from Alzheimer's and they are undiagnosed. This makes it equally as possible that we might have a low mortality rate. Also, hospitals may not keep the best records, so some data may be missing. With the balance of these, I believe that this makes the data fairly accurate. G. Conclusion I have learned from this study that you must look into the context of a problem before you can make assumptions. While there seemed to be a high mortality in North Dakota initially, I soon realized that North Dakota has a smaller population of people, so an average number of deaths would critically impact and increase the mortality rate. I have seen that there is a normal path of mortality rate due to Alzheimer's per state, and most states fall on this normal path. We can conclude that the rate will increase over time if nothing is done to stop it.

Alzheimer's Mortality Rate by State

Jeannie Kwan AP Statistics pd. 3