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HCL Technologies
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 3QFY11 2QFY11 % chg (qoq) 3QFY10 % chg (yoy)
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 35,763 0.9 523/345 225,881 2 19,471 5,852 HCLT.BO HCLT@IN
`523 `603
12 Months
For 3QFY2011, HCL Technologies (HCL Tech) reported strong numbers, way ahead of street but slightly below our expectations, shunning remote concerns related to the IT demand environment that began surfacing post Infosys results. HCL Tech has been a beneficiary of the return in demand for enterprise services, and we expect it to ride on the spending on discretionary services. The company is expected to post a revenue (USD terms) and PAT CAGR of 25.6% and 31.9%, respectively, over FY201013E, ahead of other tier-I companies. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Robust numbers: For 3QFY2011, HCL Tech reported revenue of US$914.5mn, up 5.8% qoq, on the back of 4.8% qoq volume growth and 1.0% qoq benefit due to cross-currency movement. EBIT margin also increased by 128bp qoq to 14.4% on the back of 1) improvement in utilisation level, 2) lower SG&A investment and 3) higher revenue productivity along with currency benefit. Outlook and valuation: Management is witnessing a strong demand environment and has signed 11 transformational deals in 3QFY2011 itself on the back of 17 sign offs in 2QFY2011. We expect HCL Tech to be the outperformer among tier-I IT companies, with a revenue (INR terms) CAGR of 23.7% over FY201013E on the back of its higher-value services portfolio. At the operating front, levers such as 1) managing SG&A 2) expanding utilisations and 3) turnaround in the BPO segment are expected to improve margins. Thus, we expect EBITDA to grow at a 19.6% CAGR over FY201013E. PAT, on the other hand, is expected to post a much higher CAGR of 31.9%, with improving profitability, forex gains on hedges and treasury gains. We maintain our Buy rating with a target price of `603. Key financials (Consolidated, US GAAP)
Y/E June (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 64.8 5.8 21.6 7.8
3m
1yr
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011E
FY2012E
FY2013E
10,630 39.2 1,277 13.6 22.1 18.8 27.7 6.2 22.5 14.9 3.5 16.0
12,564 18.2 1,302 2.0 20.5 18.9 27.6 5.1 18.5 15.3 2.9 14.2
16,103 28.2 1,717 31.8 17.2 24.7 21.2 4.7 22.3 15.5 2.3 13.2
19,627 21.9 2,375 38.3 18.3 34.2 15.3 4.0 26.3 18.2 1.8 9.7
23,565 20.1 2,990 25.9 18.7 43.0 12.1 3.3 27.1 19.1 1.4 7.4 Srishti Anand
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6820 srishti.anand@angelbroking.com
Ankita Somani
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6832 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
3QFY2011
2QFY2011
% chg (qoq)
3QFY2010
% chg (yoy)
9MFY2011
9MFY2010
% chg (yoy)
4,138 2,812 1,326 610 716 120 596 13 609 130 479 (11) 468 6.7 32.0 17.3 14.4 11.3
3,888 2,661 1,227 592 635 124 511 5 516 103 413 (13) 400 5.8 31.6 16.3 13.1 10.3
6.4 5.7 8.1 2.9 12.9 (3.1) 16.7 18.0 26.1 16.0 (16.4) 17.0 17.0 49bp 99bp 128bp 101bp
3,076 2,038 1,038 430 607 110 497 (14) 483 77 406 (63) 344 5.0 33.7 19.8 16.2 11.2
34.6 38.0 27.8 41.7 17.9 9.1 19.9 26.0 69.1 17.9 (82.1) 36.1 35.1 (170)bp (244)bp (176)bp 4bp
11,735 8,008 3,727 1,772 1,954 369 1,586 19 1,604 316 1,289 (90) 1,199 17.3 31.8 16.7 13.5 10.2
9,139 5,903 3,236 1,301 1,935 388 1,547 (34) 1,513 215 1,299 (339) 961 14.0 35.4 21.2 16.9 10.5
28.4 35.7 15.2 36.2 1.0 (4.9) 2.5 6.0 46.7 (0.8) (73.4) 24.8 23.6 (365)bp (451)bp (341)bp (35)bp
Actual
Estimate
Variation (%)
(%)
6 4 2 0
3QFY10
4QFY10 Offshore
1QFY11 Onsite
2QFY11 Total
3QFY11
In INR terms, revenue came in at `4,138.2cr, up 6.4% qoq, reporting higher growth as compared to USD revenue growth due to the 1.0% qoq depreciation in INR against USD in 3QFY2011. Core software continues its growth momentum: During the quarter, core software services posted robust 5.4% qoq revenue growth (USD terms) to US$650.9mn on the back of strong USD revenue growth of 5.7% and 5.1% qoq (CC terms) in enterprise application services (EAS) (contributed 21.4% to revenue) and custom application services (contributed 32.0% to revenue). Among other core software services, growth of 1.6% qoq (CC terms) was witnessed in engineering and R&D services (ERD) (contributed 17.7% to revenue). This growth was slightly muted on account of disruption in delivery due to the mishap in Japan. Infrastructure services led to strong growth: The infrastructure services segment reported whopping 8.5% qoq growth in revenue (USD terms) to US$213.7mn on the back of strong 7.7% qoq growth (CC terms) in infrastructure management services (IMS), contributing 23.4% to revenue; and cross-currency benefit of 0.8%. Currently, the segment is witnessing continued demand traction for technology and operational transformation outsourcing as well as system integration. Continental Europe and emerging markets are focusing on reducing operations cost, which is driving transformational outsourcing. A large part of the deal flow is from existing clients due to contract renewals. BPO declines: The BPO segment has returned to its growth path since the last couple of quarters, with revenue of US$49.8mn, up 0.7% qoq. However, in CC terms, the segment reported a 1.0% qoq decline. The demand environment is heating up as clients are looking at globalisation of delivery capabilities, which is driving transformation and enterprise-wide cost efficiency. The company is continuously investing in building platforms for non voice-based businesses in this segment and has already made platforms for the insurance, logistics, telecom and MPE verticals. Also, HCL Tech has acquired certain software assets from Citibank International Plc; this has provided the company a platform to cater to the capital market vertical. The company is expected to invest US$5mn6mn every quarter in BPO services until CY2011.
3QFY11
3QFY10
% chg yoy
(%)
5 0 (5) (10) (15) EAS ERD Custom application IMS BPO services 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11
HCL Techs anchor verticals, financial services (contributed 26.2% to revenue) and manufacturing (contributed 27.3% to revenue) continued their growth momentum as the companys primary growth drivers, up by 10.5% and 6.1% qoq (CC terms), respectively. In the financial services space, M&A consolidation work continued to drive growth, especially in Europe and Asia Pacific region. Demand in the manufacturing space is coming for business needs related to operational efficiency, cost reduction and product development. In addition, the energy, utilities and public sector (EPU) vertical (contributed 7.3% to revenue) grew strongly by 6.3% qoq (CC terms). This vertical is gaining strong demand from North America, especially for smart grid platforms. Other verticals, such as media, publishing and entertainment (MPE) (contributed 6.6% to revenue) and healthcare (contributed 8.0% to revenue) also posted moderate growth of 1.7% and 0.5% qoq (CC terms), respectively. However, the retail and consumer product group (CPG) vertical (contributed 8.7% to revenue) and the telecom vertical (contributed 10.3% to revenue), which posted 14.2% and 5.0% qoq (CC terms) growth in 2QFY2011, declined by 0.4% and 0.3% qoq (CC terms), respectively, in 3QFY2011. Management has indicated that the retail vertical will rebound from the next quarter, but telecom will continue to witness some systemic softness in IT spending.
4QFY10 1QFY11 8.3 10.4 2.9 19.6 1.5 19.3 6.8 5.7 7.2 7.9 7.2 11.2 1.3 10.5 6.5 4.5
During the quarter, HCL Tech reported growth across all geographies. North America and Europe grew by 0.7% qoq and 4.2% qoq (CC terms), respectively, while rest of the world posted whopping growth of 20.5% qoq (CC terms).
(%)
10 6 2 (2)
9.6
7.9
5.8 2.8
4.2 0.7
1QFY11 Europe
2QFY11
3QFY11
Utilisation, onsite and offshore-excluding trainees, increased by 60bp and 130bp qoq to 96.5% and 76.3%, respectively. Utilisation level improved as the company hired laterals to address assignments and as freshers hired in 1HFY2011 started getting billed. Utilisation level, offshore-including trainees, also improved by 180bp qoq to 71.9%. The company is trying to improve its utilisation level (including trainees) further to 7475%, which can be an important lever to improve margins.
90
(%)
80
77.0
74.1
75.0
76.3
70
(%)
19.8 20 15 10 3QFY10
17.3
16.2
13.1 2QFY11
14.4 3QFY11
EBIT margin
HCL Tech has been expanding its margins since the last two quarters and management has again guided for margin expansion of 100120bp in the next quarter as well. Segment wise, EBIT margin for core software services and infrastructure services increased by 117bp and 115bp qoq to 15.8% and 15.7%, respectively, in 3QFY2011. However, the BPO segment, which has managed to pull up its gross margin since the last two quarters, posted a 74bp qoq decline in gross margins to 18.9%. However, at the EBITDA and EBIT level, the segment trimmed down its losses with margins improving by 164bp and 188bp qoq, respectively.
(%)
(4.9)
(3.2) (9.1)
Gross margin
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBIT margin
top 5, top 10 and top 20 clients growing by 4.1%, 6.0% and 6.2% qoq (LTM basis), respectively. The company won 11 transformational deals in 3QFY2011. These deals span across all services lines and verticals. Eight of these deals have been won from existing customers. Also, three of these deals are business services-based deals.
At the CMP of `523, the stock is trading at 12.2x FY2013E EPS of `43.0. The outperformance registered by the company warrants the discount to Infosys to be bridged. Thus, we value the company at 14x FY2013E EPS i.e., at a discount of 33% to Infosys target multiple of 21x (vs. historical discount of 3540%). We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `603.
FY2013E
(`)
Aug-07
Nov-08
Price
19x
16x
13x
10x
Dec-10
6x
Apr-09
Feb-10
Sep-09
Jan-08
Jun-08
Jul-10
10
11
10,630 6,625 4,005 37.7 1,661 15.6 2,345 22.1 449 4.2 1,895 17.8 164 2,058 254 12.4 1,803 3 (530) 1,277 18.8
12,564 8,196 4,369 34.8 1,796 14.3 2,573 20.5 501 4.0 2,072 16.5 (55) 2,017 240 11.9 1,777 1 (476) 1,302 18.9
16,103 10,927 5,176 32.1 2,410 15.0 2,766 17.2 500 3.1 2,266 14.1 26 2,292 487 21.3 1,804 (88) 1,717 24.7
19,627 13,483 6,144 31.3 2,550 13.0 3,594 18.3 578 2.9 3,016 15.4 95 3,110 747 24.0 2,364 11 2,375 34.2
23,565 16,498 7,066 30.0 2,666 11.3 4,400 18.7 672 2.9 3,728 15.8 242 3,970 993 25.0 2,978 12 2,990 43.0
12
420 2,708 1,456 23 1,070 5,678 1,586 4,533 20 17 861 12,694 3,268 2,977 763 7,008 5,686 12,694
469 3,050 1,091 100 782 885 6,376 1,849 4,312 50 21 964 13,572 3,133 2,663 739 6,535 7,037 13,572
497 3,441 1,298 160 300 1,256 6,952 2,200 4,310 100 21 1,000 14,583 3,551 2,476 852 6,880 7,703 14,583
570 3,925 1,982 150 721 1,472 8,820 2,495 4,237 100 24 881 16,557 4,449 1,998 1,068 7,515 9,042 16,557
651 4,519 3,445 200 1,148 1,767 11,731 2,692 4,168 100 20 772 19,483 5,445 1,708 1,307 8,459 11,024 19,483
13
1,893 449 (573) 1,770 164 1,934 (254) 1,680 (1,429) 1,497 67 1,747 (609) (3,669) 491 (6) 168 (355) (3,980) 2,950 (145) (617) 2,188 (44) 465 420
2,072 501 (564) 2,009 (55) 1,954 (240) 1,714 (156) (135) (291) 1,424 (652) 109 (528) (25) (103) (1,199) (314) 778 (640) (176) 48 420 469
2,266 500 (176) 2,590 26 2,616 (487) 2,128 (763) 418 (345) 1,783 (785) (64) 165 114 (36) (607) (187) 0 (962) (1,149) 28 469 497
3,016 578 (63) 3,531 95 3,625 (747) 2,879 (700) 898 198 3,076 (800) 0 (1,097) 215 119 (1,563) (478) 0 (962) (1,440) 73 497 570
3,728 672 (34) 4,366 242 4,609 (993) 3,616 (889) 995 106 3,722 (800) 0 (1,938) 239 110 (2,389) (290) 0 (962) (1,252) 81 570 651
14
Key ratios
Y/E June Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS (Fully diluted) Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E FY2013E
27.7 20.5 6.2 1.5 3.5 16.0 2.9 18.8 25.5 8.0 83.9 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 31.7 14.9 17.6 22.5 2.2 79
27.6 20.0 5.1 1.5 2.9 14.2 2.7 18.9 26.2 8.0 102.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 25.2 15.3 18.7 18.5 1.8 84
21.2 16.4 4.7 1.5 2.3 13.2 2.5 24.7 31.9 8.0 110.8 0.8 1.0 0.1 1.1 1.9 23.4 15.5 18.5 22.3 2.2 78
15.3 12.3 4.0 1.5 1.8 9.7 2.1 34.2 42.5 8.0 130.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 26.1 18.2 23.1 26.3 2.6 73
12.1 9.9 3.3 1.7 1.4 7.4 1.7 43.0 52.7 9.0 158.6 0.8 1.1 0.2 1.2 1.8 27.0 19.1 26.7 27.1 3.0 70
15
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Ratings (Returns):
16