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Western New England University Polling Institute in Partnership with The Republican newspaper and Masslive.

com February 23 March 1, 2012 TABLES


Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people. If you haven't heard of them or don't have an opinion of them, just tell me and we'll move on. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (name). (Names of Senate candidates were rotated in random order in the survey.)

Favorable Unfavorable Ratings for Scott Brown Favorable Unfavorable 28% 48% 4% 20% 25% 31% 27% 50% 2% 20% 24% 30% 27% Havent heard of 5% 3% 0% 7% 4% 6% 5% 12% 0% 2% 4% 6% 4% No opinion 16% 19% 11% 13% 15% 18% 14% 14% 7% 15% 11% 16% 15% Refused 3% 3% 0% 2% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% N* 527 194 63 241 251 276 475 143 59 244 230 245 472

Feb. 23 March 1, 2012


Party Identification**

Registered voters Democrat Republican Independent Male Female Registered voters Democrat Republican Independent

47% 27% 85% 58% 52% 43% 52% 23% 90% 61% 59% 46% 53%

Gender Sept. 29 Oct. 5, 2011 Party Identification

Gender March 6-10, 2011

Male Female Registered voters

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of registered voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. ** Party identification was measured with the following question: In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent or something else?

Favorable Unfavorable Ratings for Elizabeth Warren Favorable Unfavorable 20% 6% 53% 24% 27% 14% 16% 2% 39% 17% 22% 10% 3% Havent heard of 17% 17% 11% 19% 16% 18% 30% 28% 30% 30% 27% 33% 59% No opinion 19% 18% 17% 19% 13% 24% 16% 12% 19% 17% 14% 19% 18% Refused 7% 3% 8% 10% 9% 6% 5% 5% 2% 6% 3% 7% 3% N* 527 194 63 241 251 276 475 143 59 244 230 245 472

Feb. 23 March 1, 2012


Party Identification

Registered voters Democrat Republican Independent Male Female Registered voters Democrat Republican Independent

37% 57% 11% 28% 36% 38% 33% 53% 10% 30% 33% 32% 17%

Gender Sept. 29 Oct. 5, 2011 Party Identification

Gender March 6-10, 2011

Male Female Registered voters

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of registered voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

3 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Scott Brown is handling his job as United States senator?
Job Approval Scott Brown Approve Disapprove 28% 42% 4% 21% 27% 28% ** 25% 33% 26% 18% 30% 30% 29% 26% 20% 33% 30% 24% Dont know/ Refused 19% 18% 8% 20% 15% 23% ** 19% 18% 16% 27% 15% 18% 27% 22% 19% 16% 17% 19% N* 527 194 63 241 251 276 ** 153 193 150 107 119 300 97 62 164 202 475 472

Feb. 23 March 1, 2012


Party Identification

Registered voters Democrat Republican Independent Male Female 18-29 30-49 50-64

54% 39% 88% 58% 58% 50% ** 56% 48% 58% 55% 55% 52% 44% 51% 61% 51% 54% 57%

Gender Age

Education

65 and older High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs Registered voters Registered voters

Region

Sept. 29 Oct. 5, 2011 March 6-10, 2011

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of registered voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. ** Subgroup contains fewer than 40 respondents.

4 As you may know, voters in Massachusetts will elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott Brown, the Republican, and Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat, would you vote for Scott Brown, the Republican, Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat, or some other candidate for Senate? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more toward Scott Brown, the Republican, or more toward Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat? (Names were rotated in random order in the initial and follow-up questions. Initial preferences and preferences of leaning voters in the follow-up question were combined in the table below.)
Voter Preferences for the U.S. Senate Seat Registered Voters Warren Feb. 23 March 1, 2012 Party Identification Registered voters Democrat Republican Gender Age Independent Male Female 18-29 30-49 50-64 Education 65 and older High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs Registered voters Registered voters 41% 70% 4% 29% 35% 46% ** 38% 52% 42% 36% 41% 43% 42% 40% 33% 48% 42% 34% Brown 49% 22% 94% 58% 56% 42% ** 50% 40% 49% 56% 45% 48% 44% 46% 54% 46% 47% 51% Dont know / Undecided 10% 8% 2% 12% 8% 11% ** 10% 7% 9% 8% 13% 9% 13% 14% 12% 6% 10% 14% Refused 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% ** 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% N* 527 194 63 241 251 276 ** 153 193 150 107 119 300 97 62 164 202 475 472

Region

Sept. 29 Oct. 5, 2011 March 2011

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of registered voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. **Subgroup contains fewer than 40 respondents.

Initial Voter Preferences for the U.S. Senate Seat (Without Leaners) Registered Voters Warren Brown 44% 17% 92% 54% 52% 38% ** 48% 39% 47% 48% 39% 45% 39% 45% 47% 44% 45% 46% Some other candidate 9% 10% 0% 10% 7% 12% ** 8% 2% 4% 18% 12% 6% 11% 6% 12% 8% 5% 11% Wouldnt vote 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% ** 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% Dont know / Undecided 7% 5% 2% 11% 8% 7% ** 8% 7% 8% 3% 14% 6% 9% 10% 7% 6% 7% 14% Refused 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% ** 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% N*

Feb. 23 March 1, Registered voters 2012


Party Identification Gender Age Democrat Republican Independent Male Female 18-29 30-49 50-64 Education 65 and older High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs Registered voters Registered voters

38% 67% 4% 24% 31% 43% ** 36% 50% 39% 31% 33% 42% 39% 37% 32% 42% 40% 28%

527
194 63 241 251 276 ** 153 193 150 107 119 300 97 62 164 202 475 472

Region

Sept. 29 Oct. 5, 2011 March 6-10, 2011

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of registered voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

Are you very sure about your choice for the Senate, or might you change your mind before Election Day? Asked of 478 respondents who expressed a preference in response to the initial Senate match-up question or the follow-up measure of preferences among leaning voters.

Very Sure About Choice or Might Change Mind Registered Voters Very Sure Feb. 23 March 1, 2012 Candidate choice Registered voters Warren supporters and leaners Brown supporters and leaners Democrat Republican Independent Gender Age Male Female 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 and older Education High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs 69% 72% 66% 74% 91% 60% 73% 65% ** 73% 72% 76% 66% 56% 74% 57% 65% 68% 74% Might Change Mind 31% 28% 34% 25% 9% 40% 27% 34% ** 27% 28% 22% 34% 44% 26% 43% 33% 32% 26% Dont know/ Refused 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% ** 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% N* 478 226 252 181 61 211 232 246 ** 136 178 138 99 105 273 86 54 147 189

Party Identification

Region

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of registered voters. Row percentages may not sum to100 percent due to rounding. ** Subgroup contains fewer than 40 respondents.

7 METHODOLOGY The Western New England University Polling Institute conducted telephone interviews with 576 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digitdialing Feb. 23 through March 1, 2012. The sample yielded 527 adults who said they are registered to vote in Massachusetts. Unless otherwise noted, the figures in this release are based on the statewide sample of registered voters. The Polling Institute dialed household telephone numbers, known as landline numbers, and cell phone numbers for the survey. In order to draw a representative sample from the landline numbers, interviewers first asked for the youngest male age 18 or older who was home at the time of the call, and if no adult male was present, the youngest female age 18 or older who was at home at the time of the call. Interviewers dialing cell phone numbers interviewed the respondent who answered the cell phone after confirming three things: (1) that the respondent was in a safe setting to complete the survey; (2) that the respondent was an adult age 18 or older; and (3) that the respondent was a resident of Massachusetts. The landline and cell phone data were combined and weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race, age, and county of residence using U.S. Census estimates for Massachusetts. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for a sample of 527 registered voters is +/- 4.3 percent, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 55 percent of registered voters said they approved of the job that Scott Brown is doing as U.S. Senator, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 50.7 percent and 59.3 percent (55 percent +/- 4.3 percent) had all Massachusetts voters been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects.

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