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We expect 4Q11 results to come in below consensus expectations. We cut our 2012/13 net profit forecasts by 7%/6%, on lower operating margin assumptions.
Company profile: Lite-On Tech manufactures a wide range of computer components and peripheral equipment, including power supplies, LEDs, imaging devices, PC barebones and casing.
Share price performance relative to TAIEX
43 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 -6 -11 -16 14 9 4 -1
Share Price (NT$) Performance relative to TAIEX (%)
Market cap 6M avg. daily turnover Outstanding shares Free float FINI ownership Major shareholders Net debt/equity BVPS (2011F) P/B (2011F)
Financial outlook (NT$ mn) Year to Dec Sales Op. profit Net profit EPS (NT$) EPS growth (%) DPS (NT$) P/E (X) Div. yield (%) ROE (%) 2010 123,456 7,264 8,986 3.91 26.8 2.87 9.7 7.5 13.6 2011F
US$2,979.7 mn US$7.0 mn 2,310.0 mn 77.5% 43.5% Board of directors, 8.3% (23.3%) NT$28.74 1.3x
2012F 118,413 6,263 7,770 3.36 3.4 2.49 11.3 6.5 11.5
2013F 126,056 6,593 8,191 3.55 5.4 2.62 10.7 6.9 11.8
Primary Analyst: Vincent Chen +886 2 3518 7903 vincent.chen@yuanta.com With significant contribution from:
supply, it has increased market share in server power supply from 15% in 2010 to 20% in 2011, on the back of new customer additions.
Jessie Chen
+886 2 3518 7908 jessie.chen@yuanta.com
Earnings revisions
We lower our 2012F and 2013F revenue by 2% and 1%, respectively, on a weaker demand outlook for a few of Lite-On techs product lines, such as LED and We cut our 2012F/2013F net profit by 6.5% and 6.2% Connected Device and System. Meanwhile, we also cut our 2012F OPM from 5.7% to 5.3% and our 2013F OPM from 5.7% to 5.2% on a lower-than-expected revenue scale. We keep our non-op forecasts unchanged, but we highlight downside risk here as Lite-On Tech has a diversified investment portfolio, and the overall demand situation is not particularly strong. Net-net, we cut our 2012 net profit forecast by 6.5% and 2013 by 6.2%. Figure 1: Our 2011-13F forecast revisions for Lite-On Tech
NT$ mn New Revenue Gross Profit OPEX Operating Profit Non-op PBT PAT Margin (%) Gross Margin OPEX Op Margin Net Margin 12.3% 6.8% 5.5% 6.3% 12.4% 6.8% 5.6% 6.5% 12.6% 7.3% 5.3% 6.6% 12.8% 7.1% 5.7% 6.9% 12.6% 7.4% 5.2% 6.5% 12.8% 7.2% 5.7% 6.9% 118,889 14,662 8,127 6,536 2,151 8,687 7,513 2011F Old 120,363 14,902 8,167 6,735 2,376 9,111 7,877 Change -1.2% -1.6% -0.5% -3.0% -9.4% -4.7% -4.6% New 118,413 14,942 8,679 6,263 2,776 9,039 7,770 2012F Old 121,072 15,503 8,610 6,893 2,776 9,669 8,311 Change -2.2% -3.6% 0.8% -9.1% 0.0% -6.5% -6.5% New 126,056 15,923 9,330 6,593 2,936 9,529 8,191 2013F Old 127,523 16,386 9,159 7,227 2,936 10,163 8,736 Change -1.2% -2.8% 1.9% -8.8% 0.0% -6.2% -6.2%
Yuanta
Taiwan: Electronic Components 7 Mar, 2012
Valuation
Our TP is down from NT$33 to NT$32, which implies 16% downside Our TP is down from NT$33 to NT$32 and our target price is derived from the average of our P/E and DCF valuation methodologies. Our valuation methods remain unchanged from our last report.
We use a P/E-based valuation, as it is usually adopted for downstream tech companies because of their relatively stable profitability. We continue to apply a historical average P/E multiple since 2008. We also use a DCF valuation to reflect the companys ability to consistently generate free cash flow. Our DCF TP is NT$29.7, assuming 7.4% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and 0% perpetuity growth rate. Figure 2: Peer valuation comparison table
Company Lite-On Local peers Delta Chicony Dynapack Simplo Shin Zu Shing KYE Ju Teng Average 2308 TT 2385 TT 3211 TT 6121 TT 3376 TT 2365 TT 9136 TT BUY HOLD BUY BUY SELL Not rated BUY 4.8 6.9 10.4 12.9 2.6 1.0 HK$0.21 6.0 5.0 13.7 16.6 2.9 N.A. HK$0.22 6.8 2.6 16.0 19.4 3.4 N.A. HK$0.29 16.5 8.4 16.6 16.9 32.4 13.9 12.6 16.8 13.1 11.7 12.6 13.1 29.1 N.A. 12.3 15.3 11.5 22.6 10.8 11.2 25.2 N.A. 9.1 15.1 -27.6% 20.5% 30.6% 8.3% -43.1% -33.6% -30.1% -10.7% 25.5% -27.7% 31.9% 29.0% 11.1% N.A. 2.9% 12.1% 13.9% -48.3% 16.9% 16.8% 15.6% N.A. 34.4% 8.2% Ticker 2301 TT Rating 2011F HOLD 3.3 EPS 2012F 3.4 2013F 3.5 2011F 11.7 PER (x) 2012F 11.3 2013F 10.7 2011F -16.9% EPS growth (%) 2012F 3.4% 2013F 5.4%
target P/E of 10x to our 2012F EPS and derive a P/E-based TP of NT$34. 10x is the
Source: Company data, Yuanta Research, Bloomberg Notes: EPS figures are denominated in local currency
Yuanta
Taiwan: Electronic Components 7 Mar, 2012
Source: Company data, Yuanta Research estimates Note: A represents historical data reconciled by Yuanta
Yuanta
Taiwan: Electronic Components 7 Mar, 2012
110
29.9x P/E
90
23.9x P/E
70 17.8x P/E 50 11.8x P/E 30 5.7x P/E 10 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11
83 2.5x P/B 73 63 53 1.6x P/B 43 33 23 0.6x P/B 13 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 1.1x P/B 2.0x P/B
Yuanta
Taiwan: Electronic Components 7 Mar, 2012
Balance Sheet
Year as of Dec (NT$ mn) Cash & ST investment Inventories Accounts receivable Others Current assets LT investments Net fixed assets Others Other assets Total assets Accounts payable ST borrowings Others Current liabilities Long-term debts Others Long-term liabilities Total liabilities Paid-in capital Capital surplus Retained earnings Capital adjustment Shareholders' equity 2009 27,821 11,522 24,193 2,652 66,188 26,634 21,992 8,569 57,195 123,383 37,395 248 3,301 40,944 14,513 3,683 18,196 59,140 22,621 32,548 7,866 1,208 64,243 2010 25,442 13,424 26,669 2,652 68,187 26,634 26,108 8,927 61,669 129,856 39,795 64 3,842 43,701 11,270 6,538 17,808 61,509 22,848 33,446 10,326 1,727 68,347 2011F 29,752 11,505 24,912 2,638 68,807 26,634 28,520 6,000 61,154 129,961 39,089 64 3,680 42,833 14,200 6,538 20,738 63,571 22,848 34,198 9,344 0 66,390 2012F 29,348 11,459 24,316 2,635 67,757 26,634 30,347 6,000 62,981 130,738 37,765 64 3,885 41,714 14,200 6,538 20,738 62,452 22,848 34,975 10,464 0 68,286 2013F 28,926 12,199 25,368 2,641 69,133 26,634 31,648 6,000 64,282 133,414 38,192 64 4,043 42,299 14,200 6,538 20,738 63,037 22,848 35,794 11,735 0 70,377
Key Ratios
Year to Dec Growth (% YoY) Sales Op profit (31.6) 7.7 7.4 59.6 58.1 27.0 18.7 19.2 27.4 26.8 (3.7) (10.0) (5.7) (16.4) (16.9) (0.4) (4.2) (0.9) 3.4 3.4 6.5 5.3 6.1 5.4 5.4 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F
Cash Flow
Year to Dec (NT$ mn) Net profit Depr & amortization Change in working cap. Others Operating cash flow Capex Change in LT inv. Change in other assets Investment cash flow Change in share capital Net change in debt Other adjustments Financing cash flow Net cash flow Free cash flow 2009 7,052 1,384 (1,028) 1,711 9,118 (1,500) 900 0 (600) 0 (1,772) (3,475) (5,247) 3,271 8,518 2010 8,986 1,680 (1,437) 2,264 11,492 (5,500) 400 0 (5,100) 0 (3,427) (5,344) (8,771) (2,379) 6,392 2011F 7,513 1,900 2,821 (342) 11,892 (4,000) 400 0 (3,600) 0 2,930 (6,912) (3,982) 4,310 8,292 2012F 7,770 2,099 (474) (726) 8,669 (3,600) 400 0 (3,200) 0 0 (5,873) (5,873) (404) 5,469 2013F 8,191 2,282 (1,212) (744) 8,517 (3,240) 401 0 (2,839) 0 0 (6,100) (6,100) (422) 5,678
EBITDA Net profit EPS Profitability (%) Gross margin Operating margin EBITDA margin Net profit margin ROA ROE Stability Gross debt/equity (%) Net cash (debt)/equity (%) Int. coverage (X) Int. & ST debt cover (X) Cash flow int. cover (X) Cash flow/int. & ST debt (X) Current ratio (X) Quick ratio (X) Net debt (NT$ mn) BVPS (NT$) Valuation Metrics (x) P/E P/FCF P/B P/EBITDA P/S
Yuanta
Taiwan: Electronic Components 7 Mar, 2012
Date 09 Apr 09 30 Apr 09 31 Aug 09 29 Oct 09 30 Mar 10 30 Apr 10 26 Aug 10 29 Mar 11 29 Apr 11 11 Aug 11 29 Aug 11
Closing Price (A) 24.53 26.11 36.53 43.56 42.38 41.48 37.21 35.92 36.07 28.50 31.15
Target Price (B) 22.00 23.00 41.00 47.00 42.00 45.00 42.00 40.00 33.00 32.00 33.00
Rating HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD
Analyst Vincent Chen Vincent Chen Vincent Chen Vincent Chen Vincent Chen Vincent Chen Vincent Chen Vincent Chen Vincent Chen Vincent Chen Vincent Chen
Source: Bloomberg, Yuanta Research Notes: A = price adjusted for stock & cash dividends; B = unadjusted target price; C = target price adjusted for stock & cash dividends. Employee bonus dilution is not reflected in A, B or C.
Current distribution of Yuanta ratings
Yuanta
Taiwan: Electronic Components 7 Mar, 2012
Note: Yuanta research coverage with a Target Price is based on an investment period of 12 months. Greater China Discovery Series coverage does not have a formal 12 month Target Price and the recommendation is based on an investment period specified by the analyst in the report. Global Disclaimer 2012 Yuanta. All rights reserved. The information in this report has been compiled from sources we believe to be reliable, but we do not hold ourselves responsible for its completeness or accuracy. It is not an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This report provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or invitation to make an offer to buy or sell securities or other investments. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and is not intended to provide tailored investment advice and does not take into account the individual financial situation and objectives of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, investments or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. This report is not (and should not be construed as) a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on such business in that jurisdiction. Yuanta research is distributed in the United States only to Major U.S. Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended and SEC staff interpretations thereof). All transactions by a US person in the securities mentioned in this report must be effected through a registered broker-dealer under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Yuanta research is distributed in Taiwan by Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting. Yuanta research is distributed in Hong Kong by Yuanta Securities (Hong Kong) Co. Limited, which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for regulated activities, including Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securities). In Hong Kong, this research report may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part or and any form or manner, without the express written consent of Yuanta Securities (Hong Kong) Co. Limited. Taiwan persons wishing to obtain further information on any of the securities mentioned in this publication should contact: Attn: Research Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting 10F, 225, Section 3 Nanking East Road, Taipei 104 Taiwan Hong Kong persons wishing to obtain further information on any of the securities mentioned in this publication should contact: Attn: Research Yuanta Securities (Hong Kong) Co. Limited 23/F, Li Po Chun Chambers, 189 Des Voeux Road, Central Hong Kong
Yuanta
Taiwan: Electronic Components 7 Mar, 2012
Johnny Wong Head of Metals & Mining +852 3969 9524 johnny.wong@yuanta.com
Tom Hsu Head of Taiwan Sales Trading +886 2 2175 8800 tom.hsu@yuanta.com Kerry Chen - Sales +886 2 2175 8922 kerrychen@yuanta.com Michael Lin - Sales +886 2 2175 8977 michael.lin@yuanta.com Joyce Wan Sales +852 3969 9876 joyce.wan@yuanta.com
Leo Hu - Sales +886 2 2175 8880 leo.hu@yuanta.com Jenny Lo Sales Trading +852 3969 9769 jenny.lo@yuanta.com Jason Wang Sales Trading +886 2 2175 8888 Jason.wang@yuanta.com
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Kate Jackson Sales Trading +852 3969 9767 kate.jackson@yuanta.com Ming Yi Tan - Sales +852 3969 9879 mingyi.tan@yuanta.com