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14 March 2012

HIGHLIGHTS

Oil futures prices moved higher in tandem with escalating supply


side risks. Geopolitical tension and unplanned outages in nonOPEC
countriesdentedoilsupply,whilepotentialadditionallossesrelating
to Iran add more uncertainty for the crude outlook. Futures prices
werelasttradingaround$125/bbl(Brent)and$106/bbl(WTI).

Global demand is expected to grow by 0.8mb/d (+0.9%) in 2012 to


89.9mb/d, unchanged from last months projection. The relatively
subdued economic backdrop with a global GDP expansion of 3.3%
foreseenfor2012(3.8%in2011)andhighoilpricesbothrestrainany
upsidemomentumforconsumption.

NonOPEC supply grew by only 0.3 mb/d annually for 1Q12, as


geopolitical and technical outages dented growth. Unplanned
outagesintheNorthSeaandCanadaaswellasgeopoliticaldisputes
inAfricaandtheMiddleEastreducedoutput.TheAmericasandthe
FormerSovietUnionsupportoverallgrowthfor2012at0.7mb/d.

OPECcrudesupplyroseby315kb/dFebruary,ledbyathreedecade
peak in Saudi output and a sharp recovery in Libyan production.
Outputof31.42mb/dwasthehighestlevelsincemid2008.Thecall
onOPECcrudeandstockchangefor2012israisedby0.2mb/dfor
2Q12 and 3Q12, to average of 30.1mb/d, due to lower forecast
nonOPECsupplies.

Globalrefinerycrudethroughputsarelargelyunchangedfor1Q12,as
weakerthanexpected nonOECD readings were offset by a counter
seasonalincreaseinUSrunsinFebruary.4Q11runs,however,werea
sizable 300 kb/d lower, falling 120 kb/d yoy. Runs should rise
180kb/din1Q12and600kb/din2Q12,to74.9mb/dand74.5mb/d,
respectively.

OECDindustryoilstocksincreasedbyamuted13.6mbto2614mb
in January, remaining below the fiveyear average for a seventh
consecutive month. Forward demand cover rose to 57.8 days.
Februarypreliminarydataindicateaseasonal12.6mbdropinOECD
industrystocks.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

HIGHLIGHTS....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
A HEADY BREW ................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
DEMAND ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
Summary........................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Global Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................ 5
OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
North America .......................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Europe ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Pacific ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Non-OECD ................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
China .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Other Non-OECD.................................................................................................................................................................. 13
Brazilian Gasoline: A Bitter Mix ..................................................................................................................................... 14
SUPPLY ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15
Summary......................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
OPEC Crude Oil Supply ............................................................................................................................................................. 16
European Refiners Tapped Other OPEC Supply to Replace Lost Libyan Barrels ..................................................... 19
OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
North America ........................................................................................................................................................................ 20
North Sea.................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
Other OECD ........................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Non-OECD ................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Former Soviet Union .............................................................................................................................................................. 23
Latin America ........................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Asia ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Africa .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Middle East................................................................................................................................................................................ 26
OECD STOCKS ................................................................................................................................................................................ 27
Summary......................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
OECD Inventories at End-January and Revisions to Preliminary Data .................................................................... 27
Analysis of Recent OECD Industry Stock Changes .............................................................................................................. 28
OECD North America........................................................................................................................................................... 28
OECD Europe.......................................................................................................................................................................... 29
OECD Pacific ........................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Recent Developments in Singapore and China Stocks......................................................................................................... 31
PRICES ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33
Summary......................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Market Overview ......................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Futures Markets ............................................................................................................................................................................ 35
Activity Levels .......................................................................................................................................................................... 35
Market Regulation ................................................................................................................................................................... 37
High Frequency Traders: Flash Crashers or Liquidity Providers? ........................................................................... 38
Spot Crude Oil Prices ................................................................................................................................................................. 40
REFINING ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Summary......................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Global Refining Overview........................................................................................................................................................... 45
OECD Refinery Throughput...................................................................................................................................................... 47
Petroplus Assets Back in Action .......................................................................................................................................... 51
Non-OECD Refinery Throughput ............................................................................................................................................ 52
Russian Refinery Runs Boosted by Higher Prices............................................................................................................. 53
TABLES................................................................................................................................................................................................ 56

TheIEAisSeekingtoRecruitaHeadoftheOilIndustryandMarketsDivision
TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)isseekingadynamicandexperiencedenergyexperttoserveastheEditor
oftheIEAOilMarketReportaswellasleadingitsOilIndustryandMarketsDivision.Heorshewillsuperviseand
coordinatetheIEA'sworkonthemonitoringofandreportingonoilindustryandmarketdevelopments.
Majorresponsibilitiesinclude:

Plan,leadandcoordinatethepreparationoftheIEA'smonthlyOilMarketReport,annualMediumTermOil
Market Report and Annual Statistical Supplement, the presentation of results for the Governing Board and
theStandingGroupontheOilMarket(SOM),andfollowupwithmedia,governmentsandtheoilindustry.
AdviseGovernmentsonrecenttrendsintheglobaloilmarketandmediumtermdevelopmentsandanalysis
on the role of physical and financial markets in oil price formation, particularly highlighting policyrelated
issues and recommending appropriate action; plan and coordinate meetings of the Standing Group on the
OilMarket.
Supervisetheworkofprofessionalandsupportstaffandconsultants.
Developandmaintainclosecontactswithgovernmentofficialsonimportantpolicydevelopments,aswellas
withoilcompaniesandconsultants.
CooperatewithotherDivisionsintheIEAon,interalia,oilindustryaspectsoftheirwork,countryreviews,
thedevelopmentoflongrangeenergyoutlooksandenvironmentalissues.
Provide market information and expertise during oil emergencies and support and participate in exercises
relatedtomaintainingemergencyresponsecapabilities.

Theidealcandidatewillpossess:

Anadvanceduniversitydegreeineconomics,science,engineering,orarelateddiscipline.

Tentofifteenyears'experienceintheinternationaloilindustrywithexperienceinthefieldofoilandenergy
policy.Specificareasofexpertiseincludeanyorallofthefollowing:oilproduction,refininganddistribution,
oiltrade,oilstockpolicyorproductqualityissues.

Strong analytical, communication and interpersonal skills, political sensitivity and ability to establish and
maintaineffectiveworkingrelationswithseniorgovernmentandindustryofficials.

Proven ability in teambuilding as well as in planning, coordinating and supervising team work. Strong
achievement orientation and personal initiative, as well as the ability to work under pressure, often to tight
deadlines.

An excellent level of oral and written communication skills and excellent drafting ability in English; working
knowledgeofFrenchandotherlanguageswouldbeanadvantage.

The IEA operates as an autonomous agency within the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development(OECD).
ThefullvacancynoteandonlineapplicationformisavailableontheOECDwebsiteatwww.oecd.org.Clickon
JobVacanciesHeadofDivision:Oilindustry&MarketsDivision JobReferenceNo.08112.Thepositionwill
start1July2012.
Onlineapplications(inEnglishorFrench)fromnationalsofOECDmembercountriesshouldbesubmittedbyno
laterthanmidnight(CET)on25March2012.
TheOECDisanequalopportunityemployerofferinganattractiveremunerationpackageand
encouragesapplicationsfromallqualifiedcandidates.
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Organisation de coopration et de dveloppement conomiques

M ARKET O VERVIEW

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

A HEADY BREW

Geopoliticalrisksareeverpresentintheoilmarket,andpromptfiercedebateaboutthedegreeofrisk
premium in prevailing price levels. However, quantifying a risk premium is a lot harder than surmising
thatoneexists.Currentmarketdynamicsarehighlycomplex,andincludeaheadybrewofbothrealand
anticipatedsupplysiderisks,alongsideaveryevidenttighteninginactualmarketfundamentalsthathas
beenunderwaysincemid2010.Concernsoverdislocationstonormalinterregionaltradederivingfrom
the economic measures taken against Iran, and this more prosaic ongoing tightening in the
supply/demandbalance,havecombinedtoleadpriceshigherby20%sinceDecember.Lastmonth,we
focusedonsomeofthemidstreamanddownstreammicrofactorscurrentlyatplayintheoilmarket,
and which are influencing price differentials and arbitrage flows. This month, it seems appropriate to
stand back and acknowledge a big picture that, arguably, explains more of the price strength seen in
recentmonthsthandoesspeculationaboutrealandperceivedgeopoliticalrisks.

OECD Industry Total Oil Stocks


Put simply, a postrecession OECD industrial stock
mb
Relative to Five-Year Average
overhanghasgraduallybeenwhittledaway.Inventories,
200
notablycrudeinEuropeandthePacific,lookverytightin
150
100
absoluteterms.Someanalystsidentify58daysofOECD
50
forward stock cover as painting a less troubling picture
0
than implied by absolute stocks. That argument falls
-50
down on three counts, as a) absolute stocks provide a
-100
better measure of the systems flexibility to adjust to
-150
supply or demand shocks, b) excluding North America,
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Pacific
North Am erica
OECD cover stands two days below the fiveyear
Europe
OECD
average,andc)stockcoveritselfhasfallenbyarounda
day in the last six months. Perhaps more importantly, while China and other emerging consumers are
building new strategic and industrial storage capacity, their actual holdings provide less domestic
demandcoverthanthoseintheOECD.SotheglobalcushionissmallerthantheOECDmetricsuggests.
mb/d

OPEC Spare Capacity

9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

OPEC Effective Spare Capacity

2006
Iraq

2007

2008
Ven/Nig

2009

2010

2011

2012

Libya

Marketfocusshiftedsometimeagofromdemandtosupply(asdemandgrowthin2011and2012will
likely average only 30% of 2010s 2.7 mb/d). There may be no actual physical supply disruption at
present deriving from the Iranian issue. But there are ongoing nonOPEC outages totalling around
750kb/d, as a slew of technical and political factors continue to hobble nonOPEC supply, otherwise
expectedtoreboundafterafeeble2011.Demandgrowthwilllikelyremainstuntedbyweakereconomic
prospects(themoresoifpricesstayhigh),butarealriskofanotheryearofunderperformingnonOPEC
supply shines a spotlight once more on OPEC spare capacity. It is no coincidence that the last time
effective spare capacity headed south of 3 mb/d, prices too were on a sustained rise. Temperatures
surrounding the Iranian issue may well cool, and nonOPEC output should recover as 2012 progresses.
Until then, the markets relatively slim buffer suggests a bumpy ride in the months ahead.

14M ARCH 2011

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

D EMAND

DEMAND

Summary
Highoilpricesandasubduedglobaleconomicbackdropareexpectedtocontaindemandforoilin
2012. Global oil consumption is seen reaching 89.9mb/d in 2012, a gain of 0.8mb/d (or 0.9%) on
2011.Estimatesforabsolutedemandandgrowthfor2011and2012arelargelyunchangedcompared
tolastmonthsreport.

The preliminary data series for January indicates global oil demand of 88.4 mb/d, 0.7 mb/d more
thanassumedlastmonth.SignificantlystrongerdatafromChina(up475kb/donourmonthearlier
estimate),Germany(+115kb/d)andJapan(+110kb/d)leadtherevision,althoughhigherpriceslimit
feedthroughtotherestof2012.

OECD demandgrowthcontinuestolagthatinthenonOECD. Oil consumptionin theOECDfellby


0.5mb/din2011to45.6mb/d,whereasnonOECDdemandroseby1.3mb/d,to43.5mb/d.Partlya
consequenceoftheOECDsweakermacroeconomicunderpinnings,thedivergenttrendismagnified
bythepresenceofsubsidiesinthenonOECD.TheIMFassumesOECDGDPgrowthof1.1%in2012
(1.6% in 2011) versus 5.7% in the nonOECD (6.2% in 2011). OECD demand is expected to fall by a
further 0.4mb/d to 45.2mb/d in 2012. NonOECD consumption should rise further in 2012, up by
1.2mb/dto44.7mb/d.

Global Oil Demand (2010-2012)


(million barrels per day)

Africa
Americas
Asia/Pacific
Europe
FSU
Middle East
World
Annual Chg (%)
Annual Chg (mb/d)
Changes from last OMR (mb/d)

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10


3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
29.5 30.0 30.6 30.2
27.2 27.0 26.7 28.3
15.0 14.9 15.6 15.5
4.4
4.3
4.6
4.6
7.4
7.8
8.3
7.7
86.8 87.5 89.1 89.8
2.6
3.2
3.5
3.5
2.2
2.7
3.0
3.0
0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00

2010
3.4
30.1
27.3
15.3
4.5
7.8
88.3
3.2
2.8
0.00

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11


3.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
30.1 29.8 30.2 29.9
28.6 27.3 27.4 28.9
14.9 14.8 15.4 14.8
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.8
7.6
8.0
8.5
8.0
89.0 87.9 89.6 89.8
2.6
0.5
0.5
0.0
2.3
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.03 0.01 0.01 -0.03

2011
3.3
30.0
28.1
15.0
4.7
8.0
89.1
0.9
0.8
0.01

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12


3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
29.7 29.7 30.4 30.3
29.3 28.2 28.0 29.4
14.4 14.3 15.0 14.8
4.6
4.7
4.9
4.9
7.7
8.2
8.6
8.1
89.3 88.7 90.5 91.1
0.3
0.9
1.0
1.4
0.3
0.8
0.9
1.3
0.19 -0.04 -0.03 -0.09

2012
3.5
30.0
28.7
14.6
4.8
8.2
89.9
0.9
0.8
0.01

Global Overview
Theworldislikelytoseearelativelymodestexpansioninoilproductconsumptionin2012,asasubdued
economic backdrop coincides with relatively high oil prices. The IMF, in Januarys World Economic
Outlook,assumedthatglobaleconomicgrowthwoulddecelerateto3.3%in2012,from3.8%in2011and
5.2%in2010.Havingrisento89.1mb/din2011,globaloilconsumptionisforecasttoriseby0.8mb/d
(0.9%)in2012,to89.9mb/d.The2011estimateislargelyunchangedonlastmonthsview,revisedup
only10kb/d.

Asiaisprojectedtodominateglobaloildemandgrowthin2012,expandingbyanunchanged0.7mb/dto
28.7mb/d (comprising both nonOECD and OECD). China is expected to be the greatest individual
contributor,withitsdemandforecasttoriseby370kb/din2012,to9.9mb/d.Ouranalysisimpliesthat
totalAsiandemandgrowthwillbeover80%ofthepredictedglobalexpansion,withChinaaccountingfor
45%oftheworldnumber.Suchsharesimplyalessercontributionthanin2011,whenAsiaaccountedfor
nearly90%oftheexpansionandChinacontributednearly60%ofthetotalgrowth.ThisdiminishedAsian
shareispredictedtooccurasotherregions,suchasAfrica,recover.Significantgainsindemandarealso
predicted in the oilrich regions of the world, suchas the Middle East, the former Soviet Union, Africa
and Latin America. Although for most countries high oil prices act as a disincentive to consume, they
often have the opposite effect in resourcerich nations, encouraging additional expenditure

14M ARCH 2012

D EMAND

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

programmes.Oilconsumptioncanbestimulatedeitherdirectlythroughsubsidisingdomesticoilprices,
indirectlythroughinvestmentinrelativelyoilintensiveprojectsormaysimplyincreaseinlinewithrising
incomes. The Middle East is a prime example, notably Saudi Arabia, as numerous infrastructural and
socialspendingprogrammeshavebeenconfirmedfor2012.

Global Oil Demand Growth 2010/2011/2012


thousand barrels per day

North America

Europe
FSU

472

280
225
-110

113
-300

-324

1449

Middle East
-125

290

-264

200

155

Asia

739

679

Latin America
304
203

67

158

Africa

166

Global Demand Growth


(mb/d)

-50

2010
2011
2012

2.75
0.75
0.82

3.2%
0.9%
0.9%

Slowgrowth Europe, compounded by record European oil prices, is expected to see the weakest
demandtrendin2012,withconsumptionforecasttodeclineby0.3mb/d(2.2%)to14.6mb/d(includes
nonOECD Europe). A decline of 0.1mb/d (0.5%) to 23.3mb/d is assumed for North America, as oil
demandcontinueslongtermstructuraldecline,augmentedbytheimpactofhighinternationalpriceson
aUSmarketwhichisnotshieldedbyeithersubsidiesortaxes.

OECD
ThepreliminarydataseriesforJanuaryimpliestotaloilproductdemandintheOECDfallingby0.7mb/d
(1.4%) on a yearonyear basis, to 45.1mb/d. Leaving aside the specific regional drivers (analysed in
detail later), it is apparent that the relative strength of industry supported consumption of LPG (1.8%
higher)anddiesel(+0.7%).Gasoline(1.3%)consumptionlaggedbehind,asweakconsumerconfidence
inEuropeandrisingpumppricesdepresseddemand.

OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - January 2012


(million barrels per day)

Gasoline
mb/d
% pa
OECD North America*
US50
Canada
Mexico
OECD Europe
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Spain
OECD Pacific
Japan
Korea
Australia
OECD Total
* Including US territories

9.74
8.21
0.72
0.76
1.90
0.44
0.31
0.15
0.21
0.11
1.46
0.91
0.19
0.30
13.10

-1.8
-2.5
1.6
2.7
-1.5
6.4
-2.1
-4.6
0.3
-4.5
2.5
0.9
7.6
1.6
-1.3

Jet/Kerosene
mb/d
% pa
1.52
1.32
0.10
0.06
1.14
0.17
0.34
0.14
0.08
0.09
1.20
0.84
0.21
0.13
3.86

-3.0
-4.0
2.4
9.3
-3.4
3.5
-1.7
-1.6
-2.8
-7.2
-6.6
-4.9
-19.0
1.4
-4.3

Diesel
mb/d
% pa
3.76
3.19
0.21
0.31
3.84
0.61
0.45
0.66
0.40
0.41
0.97
0.36
0.24
0.32
8.57

-0.1
-0.7
-0.6
6.0
1.5
9.0
3.9
2.8
-3.4
-2.5
1.1
-3.7
1.1
5.7
0.7

Other Gasoil
mb/d % pa

RFO
mb/d % pa

Other
mb/d
% pa

Total Products
mb/d
% pa

1.02
0.52
0.35
0.13
1.69
0.37
0.09
0.28
0.10
0.21
0.58
0.46
0.12
0.00
3.30

0.91
0.57
0.10
0.15
1.23
0.17
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.17
1.02
0.68
0.31
0.02
3.16

6.16
4.81
0.70
0.60
3.40
0.59
0.31
0.39
0.39
0.32
3.51
2.05
1.30
0.15
13.07

23.11
18.63
2.19
2.01
13.20
2.35
1.57
1.70
1.27
1.31
8.74
5.31
2.36
0.92
45.06

-20.2
-31.3
-7.8
6.0
-6.5
7.7
-5.4
-22.7
-3.2
-5.7
-2.4
-1.3
-7.1
0.0
-10.6

-6.7
-11.3
-11.3
16.2
-5.7
5.4
-5.6
10.0
-15.3
-9.5
20.7
58.3
-21.0
2.4
1.1

-0.56
0.3
-5.5
-1.8
-6.3
-2.7
-5.7
-7.9
-10.4
-5.3
7.3
10.1
4.9
-5.2
-0.2

-2.5
-3.0
-3.1
3.1
-3.2
4.5
-1.5
-5.6
-5.9
-5.1
4.3
7.8
-2.6
1.8
-1.4

14M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

D EMAND

For2012asawhole,OECDdemandisexpectedtocontractby0.4mb/d(0.9%),to45.2mb/d.Fueloil
demand is predicted to display the greatest relative decline, down 1.6% on the year, as tighter
environmental regulations and ongoing fuel substitution curb demand and outweigh the nuclear
replacement gains envisaged in Japan. Near 1% declines are expected in gasoline and jet/kerosene, as
transportmarketsparticularlysufferontheweakereconomicbackdrop.OECDeconomicgrowthof1.1%
is projected for 2012, down sharply on 2011s 1.6% expansion, encouraging consumers to rationalise
personaltransportchoices.Carpoolingandincreaseduseofpublictransportareagainontheagendaon
bothsidesoftheAtlantic.

m b/d
52

m b/d
16.0

OECD: Total Oil Product Demand

OECD: Motor Gasoline Demand

15.5
49

15.0
14.5

46

14.0
13.5

43
Jan

Apr

Jul

Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct

13.0

Jan

5-year avg
2012

Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

North America
The preliminary data series for January indicates North American oil product demand of 23.1mb/d, a
declineof0.6mb/d(2.5%)onthecorrespondingmonthlastyear.Weareforecastingamoderationin
thepaceatwhichNorthAmericandemandfalls,125kb/d(0.5%)fortheyearasawhole,to23.4mb/d.
Gasolinewilllag,fallingby80kb/d(0.7%)to10.2mb/d,ashighpricesimpactdemand.TheUSwilllikely
lead the gasoline reversal, as demand is projected to fall by 80kb/d (0.9%) in 2012 to 8.7mb/d, its
fourthfallinfiveyears.USgasolinedemandappearstohaveembarkedupontheearlystagesofalong
termstructuraldecline.Thisforecastisbasedonanassumptionthatlowermilestravelledandamore
efficientvehiclefleet,particularly inlightof highprices,outweighthelikely growthindrivernumbers,
whichwillbelimitedbydemographictrendstoaround1%perannum.TotalUSoilproductdemandis
forecasttofallby0.1mb/d(0.6%)to18.8mb/d,onparwithlastmonthsprojections.

kb/d

US50: Motor Gasoline Demand

10,000

kb/d
21,500

9,500

20,500

9,000

19,500

8,500

18,500

8,000

US50: Total Oil Product Demand

17,500
Jan

Apr

Range 2007-2011
2011

Jul

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

Jan

Apr

Range 2007-2011
2011

Jul

Oct

Jan

5-year avg
2012

BuckingthefallingtrendinoverallUSdemandhoweverisourforecastthatdiesel,LPGandnaphthaall
risein2012.Dieselshouldaddnearly30kb/d(0.8%),to3.5mb/d,supportedbytherelativestrengthof
themanufacturingsector.

14M ARCH 2012

D EMAND

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

InMexico,oildemandgrewby3.1%yoyinJanuary.Stronggrowthinindustrialactivityandhighlevels
ofconsumerconfidencegavesupporttoallproducts,barLPGandnaphtha.Despitethis,demandin2012
is forecast to remain flat versus 2011 overall, at 2.1 mb/d, with downside risks associated with an
economicslowdownintheUS.

Europe
European debt concerns escalated throughout 2011, depressing consumer and business confidence
alike, resulting in falling GDP in much of Europe in 4Q11. A prevailing European oil demand decline
accelerated,with0.8mb/dofconsumptionremovedin4Q11(down5.1%on4Q10),to14.1mb/d.The
greatest falls were in the more heavily indebted economies of southern Europe, with 4Q11 demand
downby14.4%yearonyearinGreece,7.2%lowerinSpainand8.2%downinItaly.For2011,European
oilconsumptionintotalfellby0.3mb/d(2.2%)to14.3mb/d.
Despite a reprieve in February as colderthannormal weather stimulated heating oil demand the
boostindemandisexpectedtobetemporary,asnormaltemperaturesareassumedfortheremainderof
2012. European oil demand is therefore forecast to fall to 13.9mb/d in 2012, a further 0.3mb/d
contraction(2.3%).

Days

Heating Degree Days -OECD Europe


Diff. to 10-Year Average and Last Year

100

m b/d
16.5
16.0
15.5
15.0
14.5
14.0
13.5
13.0

50
(50)
(100)
(150)
Feb 11

May 11

Diff to 10-year Avg

Aug 11

Nov 11

Feb 12

Diff to Previous Year

OECD Europe:
Total Oil Product Demand

Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

EvenrelativelyrobusteconomieslikeGermany,whichhaveprovidedanelementofeconomicsupportto
Europeasawhole,sawdemandfallinthesecondhalfof2011,withyearonyeardeclinesof0.1mb/din
both3Q11and4Q11.PreliminaryJanuarydatadepicteda4.5%yearonyeargainof0.1mb/d,to2.3mb/d,
buttheforecastfor2012Germandemandremainsonadownwardtrend,downby0.4%to2.4mb/d.

m b/d

OECD Europe: Total Dem and Grow th


by Fuel, 2010-2012

0.2
0.1
(0.1)
(0.2)
(0.3)
2010
Gasoline

2011
Diesel

2012
Other

kb/d German: Total Oil Product Demand


2,900
2,800
2,700
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Range 2007-2011
5-year avg
2011
2012

Jan

ConsolidateddataforSpaininDecembershoweda7.5%yearonyeardemandcontraction,to1.3mb/d.
Consumptionfellastheunemploymentraterosetoa15yearhighof21.5%inthesamemonth.Allthe
major product categories saw sharp declines, although the key transportation fuel markets fared the

14M ARCH 2012

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D EMAND

worst.Gasolinedemandfell6.6%yoy,whileconsumptionofdieseldropped5.4%.Reportsofwarmer
thannormalweatherinDecemberfurthercurtailedheatingoildemand,whichwasdown11.3%.

OtherMediterraneaneconomies,suchasItaly,PortugalandGreece,alsosawsharpdropsindemand.
The preliminary series for Italy fell by 6% yoy in January, to 1.3mb/d. Big falls in naphtha (19.8%),
gasoil (3.4%) and jet/kerosene (2.8%) outweighed gains in LPG (3.4%) and gasoline (0.3%). A slight
moderation in weakening Italian demand is expected for 2012, averaging 4.8%, as the worst of the
economicmalaiseeasesrunningfromthefirsttothesecondhalfoftheyear.Portuguesedemandfellby
19.7%inDecemberandGreekdemandby14.1%.ThepreliminarydataseriesforFrancedepicteda5.6%
declineinJanuary,to1.7mb/d,asunseasonablywarmearlywinterweatherresultedina22.7%decline
inheatingoil.

DecembersawlimitedgainsindemandintheUK,TurkeyandtheNetherlands,withUKconsumptionup
0.5%yoyto1.5mb/d,havingfallenineightoftheprecedingtenmonths.UKdieselconsumption(+13.5%
yoy)providedthemajorityofthemomentum,astheseasonaldipindieseldemandinDecemberproved
much less steep than usual. As the UK economy struggles with nearrecessionary conditions and record
highoilpriceshowever,demandisforecasttofallby2.2%(34kb/d)in2012,to1.6mb/d.

kb/d
1,900
1,850
1,800
1,750
1,700
1,650
1,600
1,550
1,500

kb/d
500

UK: Total Oil Product Demand

UK: Diesel Demand

480
460
440
420
400
380
360

Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

Jan

Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

Demand for oil products in the Netherlands in December returned to the rising trend that has
predominatedsince2Q11,up4.3%onayearearlierto1.0mb/d.UnderpinningstrongerDutchdemand
were the sharp gains in the transportation fuel markets, with diesel demand up 13.5% and gasoline
surpassing this, rising by 14.6%. These rises were, however, largely attributable to the particularly
pronouncedlowsayearearlier.TurkishdemandalsoheldupremarkablywellinDecember,gaining9.3%
to0.7mb/d,althoughonceagainverylowconsumptionayearearlierflatteredtheannualtrend.Alltold,
exceptionally mild December European temperatures, while limiting heating demand, may have
stimulatedtransportfueldemandrelativetoweatheraffectedDecember2010levels.

Pacific
Preliminary data for the OECD Pacific in January highlighted the regions buoyancy, as yearonyear
demand growth came in at 4.3%, to average 8.7mb/d. Big gains in fuel oil (+20.7%), other products
(+20.4%)andLPG(+10.7%)outweighedcontractionsinjet/kerosene(6.6%)andtheheatingoilcategory
(2.4%). Ongoing closures in the Japanese nuclear sector continue to support demand for fuel oil and
other products (which includes crude oil for direct burn), acting as replacement fuels (alongside coal
andnaturalgas)intheelectricitysector.

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9.5

Heating Degree Days -OECD Pacific


Diff. to 10-Year Average and Last Year

Days

OECD Pacific:
Total Oil Product Demand

m b/d

80
60

9.0

40

8.5

20
-

8.0

(20)

7.5

(40)

7.0

(60)

Jan

Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

Feb 11

May 11

Diff to 10-year Avg

Aug 11

Nov 11

Feb 12

Diff to Previous Year

AlthoughwarmertemperaturesthanayearearliersuppressedheatingoildemandinJanuary,theonset
ofcolderconditionsinFebruarylikelysawgrowthresume.Demandgrowthofaround60kb/d(0.9%)is
envisagedfor2012,takingconsumptionintheOECDPacificregionto7.9mb/din2012.

kb/d
2,500

OECD Pacific:
Residual Fuel Oil Demand

m b/d
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5

Korea: Total Oil Product Demand

2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
Jan

Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

South Korean consumption fell by 2.6% in January, according to preliminary data, continuing the
declining trend into a third month. It is important to put these falls in context, as they represent a
decline on the previous years exceptionally strong demand, and potentially signal moves by
costconsciousKoreanconsumerstowardsgreaterefficiencygainsinthefaceofrelentlesslyhighprices.
Weaker manufacturing sentiment as depicted by HSBCs South Korean Manufacturing PMI falling to
49.2 (whereby a number below 50 implies a contraction) has undermined Korean consumption of
gasoil(1.7%),fueloil(21.0%)andjet/kerosene(19.0%)inJanuary.Robustdomesticdemandcontinued
to support gasoline, with growth up to a sixmonth high of 7.6%. Oil demand growth is expected to
resume for the year as a whole, up by 0.5% to 2.2mb/d in 2012, as the underlying economic picture
remainssupportive,withrealGDPgrowthofaround3.5%envisaged.

Japaneseoilproductdemandroseby0.4mb/d,or7.9%yearonyear,inDecemberonthebackofstrong
gainsinresidualfueloil(+170kb/d),otherproducts(+250kb/d)andLPG(+60kb/d).Partiallyoffsetting
these gains were the big declines seen in naphtha, gasoil and diesel. Japanese oil demand in 2012 is
expectedat4.5mb/dwithannualgrowthof40kb/dor0.9%.ThepowersectorhasdominatedJapanese
oildemandgrowthsincemidMarch2011snuclearclosures,burning165kb/dofcrudeoilin2011(up
135.5%)and160kb/doffueloil(+48.3%).

Non-OECD
Leadingtheworldsgrowthmomentum,ashasbeenthecasesincethemid1990s,nonOECDoildemand
isforecasttooutpacetheOECD,supportedbystrongereconomicunderpinningsandagenerallyhigher
incomeelasticity.Economicgrowthof5.7%isforeseeninthenonOECDin2012(6.2%in2011),whilstthe

10

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I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

D EMAND

OECD estimate is a more modest 1.1%. Coupled with an assumed greater dependence upon economic
growthinthenonOECD,oilproductdemandisexpectedtoriseby2.8%(or1.2mb/d)to44.7mb/d.

Non-OECD: Demand by Product


(thousand barrels per day)

Demand

LPG & Ethane

Annual Chg (kb/d)

Annual Chg (%)

2010

2011

2012

2011

2012

2011

2012

4,734

4,973

5,112

238

140

5.0

2.8

Naphtha

2,680

2,651

2,671

-29

20

-1.1

0.8

Motor Gasoline

8,081

8,364

8,608

283

243

3.5

2.9

Jet Fuel & Kerosene

2,637

2,725

2,782

88

57

3.3

2.1

12,944

13,525

13,969

581

444

4.5

3.3

Residual Fuel Oil

5,480

5,514

5,604

33

90

0.6

1.6

Other Products

5,601

5,699

5,917

99

218

1.8

3.8

Total Products

42,157

43,450

44,663

1,293

1,213

3.1

2.8

Gas/Diesel Oil

A similar growth structure is assumed for 2012 aswas seen in 2011, although a stronger expansion in
Africa (+5.0% against the Libyaninduced 1.5% contraction seen in 2011) counteracts weaker growth
elsewhere. The potential for further growth in vehicle ownership levels will continue to support the
transportation fuel markets in 2012, with gasoline demand forecast to rise by 2.9% (to 8.6mb/d) and
gasoilby3.3%(to14.0mb/d).Theotherproductscategorywillsimilarlythrive,forecasttoriseby3.8%
in2012,to5.9mb/d,supportedbystronggainsincrudeoilfordirectburnandbitumen(benefitingfrom
thebuoyantroadbuildingprogrammes).
m b/d
2.5

m b/d Non-OECD: Total Oil Product Demand


46

Non-OECD: Demand Growth by Region

2.0
44

1.5

42

1.0

40

0.5

38

36

(0.5)
Jan

Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

2009
China
Latam

2010
2011
Oth. Asia
Other

2012
M. East
Non-OECD

ThepreliminarynonOECDdataseriesforDecemberimpliesadecelerationinmomentumtowardsthe
endof2011,albeitmeasuredagainstexceptionallystronggrowthattheendof2010.Havingaveraged
3.1%growthin2011,andforecasttoriseby2.8%in2012,demandgrowthdippedto0.8%inDecember.
Weakdemandfromthepetrochemicalsector,adirectconsequenceoftheeconomicslowdown,caused
naphthademandtofallby7.4%inDecember.EarlyindicatorsforJanuaryimplyarecovery,asdemandis
estimatedtohaverisenby2.4%.
Non-OECD: Demand by Product
(thousand barrels per day)

Demand

Annual Chg (kb/d)

Annual Chg (%)

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Dec-11

Jan-12

Dec-11

LPG & Ethane

5,061

5,120

5,072

266

164

5.5

3.3

Naphtha

2,798

2,590

2,734

-208

-87

-7.4

-3.1

Motor Gasoline

8,547

8,797

8,338

340

359

4.0

4.5
2.1

Jet Fuel & Kerosene


Gas/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil

Jan-12

2,879

2,774

2,792

32

57

1.2

14,080

13,723

13,281

-56

321

-0.4

2.5

5,519

5,672

5,526

51

-187

0.9

-3.3

Other Products

5,693

5,561

5,618

-57

400

-1.0

7.7

Total Products

44,577

44,238

43,362

366

1,028

0.8

2.4

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D EMAND

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China
Havingsloweddramaticallytowardstheendof2011Chinesedemandgrowthreturnedtoasevenmonth
highinJanuary.Apparentdemandforoilproducts,i.e.netproductimportsplusrefineryoutput,roseby
6.0% yoy to 9.9mb/d. This relative gain, however, is largely technical, as late2011 data suffered in
comparisonto2010whenthe banon coalburning supported higheroildemand.Furthermore,official
refinerythroughputstatisticstendtobedistortedinJanuaryandFebruary,interruptedbytheLunarNew
Yearholidays,andrenderingcomparisonsdifficult.Allthesame,stronggainswereseeningasoline,up
10.6% on the corresponding month a year earlier to 1.8mb/d. The earlier Lunar New Year holiday
(January2012asopposedtoFebruaryin2011)temporarilysupportedgasolinedemandwithadditional
journeys made, but suppressed industrially important naphtha (0.7%) and fuel oil (15.8%) as many
businessesclosedfortheholidays.

From its end2011 lowpoint, Chinese demand growth is forecast to accelerate through 2012, as the
economicoutlookisexpectedtoimproveastheyearprogresses,andasthedepressanteffectongrowth
ofhighearly2011oildemandlevelsdiminishes.Fortheyearasawhole,consumptiongrowthof3.9%is
envisaged, taking apparent demand to 9.9mb/d, albeit this is lower than some thirdparty estimates
which envisage growth of as much as 5.5% for 2012. Underpinning our relatively cautious Chinese
growthestimateistheassumptionthateconomic growthwillfallbelow8.5% fortheyear asawhole.
The weaker outlook gains support from reports that the Chinese government has decided on a lower
growth target, of 7.5%, as opposed to the 8% target previously assumed. It is worth noting that
historically the government target has tended to act as a floor, with for example, 2011 GDP growth
exceeding9%despiteanearlierstatedintentionof8%.

kb/d
10,000

kb/d
3,600

China: Total Oil Product Demand

9,500

3,400

9,000

3,200

8,500

3,000

8,000

2,800

7,500

2,600

7,000

2,400

6,500

China: Gasoil Demand

2,200
Jan
Apr
Range 2007-2011
2011

Jul

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

China: Demand by Product


(thousand barrels per day)

Demand

2012

2011

2012

2011

668

693

697

26

3.9

0.5

Naphtha

1,129

1,163

1,179

34

16

3.0

1.4

Motor Gasoline

1,546

1,655

1,721

109

66

7.1

4.0

368

402

414

33

12

9.0

3.0

3,143

3,341

3,465

198

125

6.3

3.7

Jet Fuel & Kerosene


Gas/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil

12

Annual Chg (%)

2011

LPG & Ethane

Annual Chg (kb/d)

2010

2012

531

541

544

10

1.8

0.5

Other Products

1,685

1,717

1,863

32

145

1.9

8.5

Total Products

9,069

9,511

9,882

442

370

4.9

3.9

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I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

D EMAND

Other Non-OECD
PreliminaryestimatesforIndianoilproductdemandinJanuarypointtowardsdemandgrowthof2.7%
onayearonyearbasis.ThedemandexpansionhassubsidedtoitsweakestpacesinceJuly2011,asbig
declines in fuel oil (16.9%), naphtha (4.0%) and jet/kerosene (3.2%) outweighed the persistent gains
seen in gas/diesel oil (+7.6%) and gasoline (+1.6%). Gas/diesel oil is outpacing gasoline a trend
embeddedsincemid2011astherelativesubsidiesnowstronglyfavourdieselpropulsion.Thegasoline
priceinMumbai,asofmidFebruary,was70rupees/litre($1.42/litre)whereasdieselcostRs45.3/litre.
Withinour2012forecastfortotalIndianoildemandgrowthof3.2%,weareassumingdieselgrowthwill
outpacegasolineby5.0%to4.1%.Fueloildemandwillfallby0.4%in2012,asbunkerdemandfromthe
shippingindustryfallsback,partlyduetoabanonironoreexports.

kb/d
3,900

Y-o-Y
% Chg
5

India: Total Oil Product Demand

3,700
3,500

India: Total Oil Product Demand

3,300
3

3,100
2,900

2,700
1

2,500
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

2009

2010

2011

2012

EarlyindicatorsofRussiandemandin2012depictaresilientyearonyeargrowthrateofnearly4%for
January, with demand for motor gasoline dominating, up by 5.8%. The Russian demand picture is far
fromclear,aslargedeclineswereseeningasoil(4.5%),naphtha(4.5%)andjet/kerosene(4.3%).Such
wide discrepancies place an additional uncertainty burden on forecasts, but based on GDP growth of
3.5%,Russianoilproductdemandisexpectedtoriseby2.6%(+90kb/d)in2012to3.6mb/d.

kb/d
3,900

Russia: Total Oil Product Demand

kb/d
900

3,700

850

3,500

800

3,300

750

3,100

700

2,900

650

2,700

600

S o urc e : P e t ro m a rk e t R G , IE A

2,500

Russia: Motor Gasoline Demand

S o urc e : P e t ro m a rk e t R G , IE A

550
Jan
Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

Jan

Apr
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct
5-year avg
2012

Jan

InBrazil,oildemandgrewby1.5%yearonyearinDecember,ledbyjetfuel/kerosene(+8.3%)andgasoil
(+2.9%).Motorgasolineremainedflatduringthemonth,maskingoffsettingmovementsfromanhydrous
ethanol to unblended gasoline (as the government reduced the ethanol requirement in the gasoline
blend,from25%to20%).TheBrazilianeconomyslowedattheendof2011,bringingannualGDPgrowth
to2.7%,notfaroffthe2.5%gainseeninoilproductdemand.Demandisexpectedtorisebyafurther
1.3%in2012,to2.8mb/donanassumptionof3.4%GDPgrowth.

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Brazilian Gasoline: A Bitter Mix


Having risen by an annual average of8.4%in the five years through to2010, growthof Brazilian gasoline
demand slowed to 2.7% in2011, taking total gasoline consumption to 810 kb/d. A further deceleration is
forecast to 1.6% in 2012, to 830 kb/d. Since the oil crisis of the 1970s Brazil has incorporated ethanol
traditionallyabyproductfromitsburgeoningdomesticsugarcropintothegasolinemix,attheexpenseof
traditionallyimported,refinerysourcedgasoline.Weakerdemandoverall(amidslowereconomicgrowth),
maskssubstantialoffsettingmovementsbetweencomponentsofthegasolinemix.Specifically,2011sawa
significantdropof80kb/dinethanoldemand,partlyexplainedbyloweryieldsfromsugarcaneplantations,
offsetbyapickupintheuseofunblendedgasoline.HighrunsatBrazilianrefinerieswereunabletosatisfy
incremental demand for this component during 2011, forcing the country to import gasoline to keep the
marketsupplied.
Kb/d

Brazil: Motor Gasoline Demand


Annual Growth by Type of Fuel

200
100

Kb/d

20
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
-90
-120

10

-100

-10

-200
Apr 10

-20
Oct 10

Gasoline
Ethanol hydro

Apr 11

Oct 11

Exports

Imports
Source: ANP (Brazil)

1Q07

Ethanol anhydro
Motor gasoline (RHS)

Brazilian Net Imports of Gasoline YoY,


Kb/d
(Pure gasoline for blending)

90
60
30
0
-30
-60
-90
-120

1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11


Quarterly Net Imports (RHS)
Annual QoQ Net Imports

The Brazilian motor gasoline mix in 2011 was composed of ethanol (23%), anhydrous ethanol (18%) and
petroleumrefinerysourcedgasoline(59%).SinceApril,thepoolshowedoffsettingshiftsbetweenethanol
andgasoline.Theformersawdemanddecreaseduetohigherprices,triggeredbyarelativeethanolscarcity.
Structural underinvestment in the ethanol industry,
Brazilian End-user prices
duringtherecessionof2008/2009,andlastyearsbad
US$/l
Motor gasoline-Ethanol Spread
weather conditions (suppressing the sugarcane
0.50
harvestof2011/12)werebothresponsibleforhigher
buy ethanol
ethanol prices. Magnifying the problem, sugarcane
0.25
supply constraints triggered higher prices for sugar
than ethanol, causing producers to maximize sugar
productionattheexpenseofethanoloutput.
(0.25)
Facinginflationarypressuresin2011,thegovernment
buy gasoline
sought to limit gasoline price pressures by
Source: ANP (Brazil)
(0.50)
encouraging the use of refined gasoline over more
rapidly appreciating ethanol. Specifically, the
government used a combination of reducing the
mandatory minimum ethanol blend, from 25% to 20%; balancing a complex structure of taxes; and
influencing Petrobras retail prices. Furthermore, the appreciation of the Brazilian currency, versus the
USdollar,madegasolineimportsrelativelycheaperthannationallyproducedethanol.Intheshortterm,the
policyworkedandmotorgasolinewassuppliedtothemarketatamoreaffordableprice;butforthelonger
term,currentmarketsignalsdistortinvestmentsintheethanolindustry.

Going forward transport fuel consumption will depend not only on the predicted slowdown in GDP and
vehicle sales. It will also depend on sugarcane/ethanol market dynamics and enduser price formation,
whicharehighlysusceptibletotaxesandblendingpolicies.The2012demandoutlooklookssluggish,with
the share of unblended gasoline in the Brazilian motor gasoline mix expected to remain unchanged and
largelydependentonimports.Furtherahead,itwilldependonthe2012/2013sugarcaneharvestandthe
commissioningofnewrefineryprojectsin2H13.

14

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S UPPLY

SUPPLY

Summary
Global oil supply fell by 0.2mb/d to 90.4mb/d in February, with rising OPEC NGL and crude
production only partially offsetting a 0.5mb/d decline from nonOPEC countries. Compared to a
yearago,globaloilproductionstood1.7mb/dhigher,90%ofwhichstemmedfromincreasingoutput
ofOPECcrudeandNGLs.

NonOPEC supply fell by 0.5mb/d to 52.8mb/d in February. Supplies declined in all regions last
month but most notably in South Sudan and in Latin America. North Sea production continued to
falterin1Q12,fallingby0.3mb/dfrom1Q11,paringannualnonOPECsupplygainstoonly0.3mb/d.
ContinuedviolenceinSyriaandtheunresolvedtransitdisputebetweenSudanandSouthSudanare
theprimarycontributorstoa0.2mb/drevisiontononOPECsupplythismonth.Thisleavesgrowth
for2012at0.7mb/d,derivinglargelyfromtheAmericasandtheFormerSovietUnion.

OPECcrudeoilsupplyinFebruaryroseforthefifthmonthrunning,ledhigherbySaudioutputata
threedecade peak and a sharp recovery in Libyan production so far this year. Output rose by
315kb/dto31.42mb/d,thehighestlevelsinceOctober,2008.Februaryshighproductionlevelsled
toadeclineinOPECseffectivesparecapacity,to2.75mb/dfrom2.85mb/dinJanuary.Thecallon
OPECcrudeandstockchangefor2012hasbeenraisedby200kb/dforboth2Q12and3Q12,toan
averageof30mb/d,duetolowerforecastsuppliesfromnonOPEC.

Market attention has been focused on the potential disruption in Iranian crude flows in coming
monthsastheEUs1Julyembargonears,withindustryanalystsexpectingexportsofIraniancrudeto
ultimatelybecurtailedbyaround800kb/dto1mb/dfrommidyearonwards.However,almostallof
Iransbuyerswillinevitablyscalebackvolumesinordertoavoidfallingfoulofsanctions.

OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply

m b/d
Year-on-Year Change
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12
OP EC Crude
OP EC NGLs

Non-OP EC
Total Supply

OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply

m b/d
62

m b/d
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
29.5
29.0
28.5
28.0

60
58
56
54
52
50
Jan 11

Jul 11

Jan 12

Non-OP EC
OP EC Crude - RS

Jul 12
OP EC NGLs

All world oil supply figures for February discussed in this report are IEA estimates. Estimates for OPEC
countries,someUSstates,andRussiaaresupportedbypreliminaryFebruarysupplydata.

Note:RandomeventspresentdownsiderisktothenonOPECproductionforecastcontainedinthisreport.These
events can include accidents, unplanned or unannounced maintenance, technical problems, labour strikes,
politicalunrest,guerrillaactivity,warsandweatherrelatedsupplylosses.Specificallowancehasbeenmadein
the forecast for scheduled maintenance in all regions and for typical seasonal supply outages (including
hurricanerelatedstoppages)inNorthAmerica.Inaddition,fromJuly2007,anationallyallocated(butnotfield
specific)reliabilityadjustmenthasalsobeenappliedforthenonOPECforecasttoreflectahistoricaltendency
for unexpected events to reduce actual supply compared with the initial forecast. This totals 200kb/d for
nonOPECasawhole,withdownwardadjustmentsfocusedintheOECD.

14M ARCH 2012

15

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OPEC Crude Oil Supply


OPECcrudeoilsupplyinFebruaryroseforthefifthmonthrunning,ledhigherbySaudioutputatanear
threedecadepeakandasharprecoveryinLibyanproductionsofarthisyear.Outputroseby315kb/dto
31.42mb/d,thehighestlevelsinceOctober,2008.

MarketattentionhasbeenevenlyfocusedonthepotentialdisruptioninIraniancrudeflowsincoming
monthsastheEUs1JulyoilembargonearsandtheveryreallossofsuppliesfromnonOPECproducers
Syria, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen. The call on OPEC crude and stock change for 2012 has been
raisedby200kb/dforboth2Q12and3Q12,toanaverageof30mb/d,due tolowerforecastsupplies
from nonOPEC. For 2012 as a whole, the call is raised by 200kb/d, to 30.1mb/d, but still around
0.5mb/dbelowthe2011average.

m b/d
32

m b/d
32

Quarterly Call on OPEC Crude +


Stock Change

OPEC Crude Oil Production

31

31
30

30

29
28

29

27

28

26
1Q

2Q

3Q

Jan

4Q

2 0 10
2 0 11
2 0 12
Entire series based o n OP EC Co mpo sitio n as o f January 2009
o nwards (including A ngo la & Ecuado r & excluding Indo nesia)

Mar

2009

May

Jul

2 0 10

Sep

Nov

2 0 11

Jan
2 0 12

Entire series based o n OP EC Co mpo sitio n as o f January 2009


o nwards (including A ngo la & Ecuado r & excluding Indo nesia)

Februarys threeyearhigh production levels led to a decline in OPECs effective spare capacity, to
2.75mb/dfrom2.85mb/dinJanuary.Thatsaid,thegroupscurrentsustainablecapacityof35mb/dis
on course to rise by 620kb/d, to 35.62mb/d, in 3Q12 as a number of new projects come onstream.
ProductioncapacityinAngola,LibyaandNigeriashouldpostacombinedincreaseof330kb/d,whileIraq
willaddafurther130kb/d.

TheincreaseinOPECproductioncapacitywilllikelybewellreceivedgiventheuncertaintiessurrounding
the impact new EU and US sanctions will have on overall Iranian supplies come this summer. Iranian
crudeproductionedgedlowerby50kb/d,to3.38mb/dinFebruary.Already,sanctionsofthecountrys
CentralBankarehavingapronouncedimpactonIraniancrudetradepatterns.

Iranian Crude Imports

kb/d
1200

mb/d
3000

3.9

1000

2500

3.8

800

2000

3.7

600

1500

400

1000

200

500

3.6
3.5
3.4

0
Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Total - RHS
OECD PAC
Other Non-OECD

Iran Crude Production

Oct-11

3.3

Jan-12

Jan

OECD EUR
China / India

Mar
2009

May Jul
2010

Sep Nov
2011

Jan
2012

While a number of European countries have reportedly already halted imports of Iranian crude, latest
shippingdatashowotherbuyerssuchasIndiaandSouthKoreasharplyincreasedpurchasesinJanuary.
ChinahasalsohalveditsimportsfromIran,from550kb/dinDecemberto275kb/dinJanuary,duetoa
dispute over price terms, which has now been resolved. However, some of Irans traditional buyers
reportedlyhavebeenabletosecurebettercredittermsfromNIOC,which,ineffect,provideadiscount

16

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for lifters. Going forward, a number of European buyers have expressed concern that they will have
difficultyfindingreplacementbarrelsofsimilarqualitytoIransheaviercrudes,especiallyItalianrefiners
whoprocessthegradesforasphalt.Thistimeayearago,Europeanrefinersweresuddenlyconfronted
with similar concerns, but over the loss of light, sweet Libyan crude. Latest data show lighter Libyan
crudes were ultimately replaced with more imports of heavier, sour crudes from OPECs Middle East
producers(seeEuropeanRefinersTappedOtherOPECSupplytoReplaceLostLibyanBarrels).

Exports of Iranian crude could ultimately be curtailed by around 800kb/d to 1mb/d from midyear
onwards,onthebasisoftheEUembargoandassumingChina,India,JapanandSouthKoreacontinueto
purchaselowerlevelsofIraniancrude.Almostallofthecountryscurrentlifterswillinevitablyscaleback
volumesinordertoavoidfallingfoulofUSsanctions.Themostimmediateimpactsofarhasbeenonthe
shippingindustry,whichhasseenEUinsurancecompaniesannouncesuspensionofcoveragefortankers
that call at Iranian ports. Chinese vessels are largely the exception. State National Iranian Tanker Co
(NITC)hasalsoenlisteditsownvesselsfordeliveriestobuyersunabletosecureinsurancecoverage.Asa
result,thenumberofNITCvesselsavailableforfloatingstoragehasbeensharplyreduced.
OPEC Crude Production
(million barrels per day)

Capacity

Spare Capacity
vs Feb 2012
Supply

3Q12 Average
Sustainable
Production
Capacity

3Q12 Production
Capacity Versus
1Q12 Capacity

1.27

1.30

0.03

1.37

0.06

1.76

1.91

0.15

2.10

0.19

0.48

0.48

0.52

0.04

0.54

0.02

3.45

3.43

3.38

3.51

0.13

3.56

0.04

2.56

2.65

2.60

2.84

0.24

2.84

0.00

0.75

1.15

1.30

1.30

0.00

1.37

0.07

Nigeria

2.06

2.04

2.14

2.48

0.34

2.55

0.07

Qatar

0.82

0.82

0.81

0.90

0.09

0.90

0.00

Saudi Arabia

9.80

9.85

10.00

11.88

1.88

11.88

0.00

UAE

2.58

2.58

2.59

2.79

0.20

2.79

0.00

Venezuela4

2.38

2.47

2.48

2.60

0.12

2.63

0.03

27.92

28.46

28.81

32.02

3.21

32.51

0.49

Iraq

2.69

2.65

2.61

3.00

0.39

3.13

0.13

Total OPEC

30.61

31.11

31.42

35.02

3.60

35.63

0.62

Dec 2011
Supply

Jan 2012
Supply

Feb 2012
Supply

Algeria

1.29

1.29

Angola

1.75

1.70

Ecuador

0.48

Iran
2

Kuwait
Libya

OPEC-11

Sustainable
Production
1

(excluding Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya


1
2
3
4

Capacity levels can be reached within 30 days and sustained for 90 days.
Includes half of Neutral Zone production.
Nigeria's current capacity estimate excludes some 200 kb/d of shut-in capacity.
Includes upgraded Orinoco extra-heavy oil assumed at 410 kb/d in February.

2.75)

Saudi Arabian crude oil supplies were estimated at a mb/d


Saudi Arabian Crude Production
heady 10mb/d, up 150kb/d over January levels. 10.5
Preliminary tanker data show Saudi Aramco increased
10.0
exports volumes by between 150300kb/d in February,
9.5
with scant sign of any offsetting reduction in domestic
9.0
refinery use. The increased Saudi volumes in February
wereheadingtoEuropeandAfrica,tankerdataindicate.
8.5
RatherthanAsiaasmightbeexpected.Thatsaid,inearly
8.0
March,ChinasSinochemreportedlyliftedaSaudicargo
7.5
heldinstorageatOkinawa,Japanduetocongestionand
Jan
Mar May Jul
Sep Nov Jan
shippingdelaysattheKingdomslargestexportterminal
2009
2010
2011
2012
atRasTanura.Asaresult,someoftheadditionaloutput
maybeusedforreplenishingstoragetanks.Indeed,marketreportssuggestSaudioutputwillincreasein
comingmonthsbasedoncustomerdiscussionsandallocations,althoughhigherAprilpricedifferentials
forsalesintoAsiasuggestincrementalvolumesmightbetargetedatAtlanticBasincustomers.

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Correspondingly, higher Saudi output in February reduced the countrys spare capacity to 1.88mb/d
from2.03mb/dinJanuary.Currentcapacityisestimated11.88mb/d.TheOMRdefinessparecapacityas
productionthatcanbebroughtonwithin30daysandsustainedfor90days.SaudiOilMinisterAliNaimi
hassaiditwouldtakethestateoilcompanyanadditional90daystobringonafurther700kb/d.Indeed,
Saudi Aramco in January was operating the highest number of rigs in four years as it restarts the
countrys oldest field, Dammam, and advances plans for the Manifa development. Both Dammam and
Manifa produce heavier crudes. Dammam, with a capacity of 100 kb/d, was mothballed 30 years ago.
Thefirst500kb/dstageofthe900kb/dprojectisexpectedtobebroughtonlinein2013.

FebruaryIraqicrudesupplywasdown35kb/dto2.61mb/d,curbedinpartbyexportconstraints.Crude
oil exports were off 35kb/d to 2.07mb/d, the lowest level since end2010. Crude shipments from the
southern port of Basrah were down by around 10kb/d to 1.7mb/d while northern exports of Kirkuk
crudefromCeyhanontheMediterraneanfellby25kb/d,to370kb/d.Aftermonthsofdelays,inearly
March Iraq loaded its first shipment from the newly inaugurated single point mooring (SPM) export
facilityintheGulf.However,itisstillunclearthevolumeofcrudethatwillbeexportedfromthenew
SPMinthemonthsahead,withreportsthefacilitystillhasnumeroustechnicalconstraints.Nameplate
capacityfortheSPMis900kb/dbutitisunlikelytoexceed250kb/duntilthesecondhalfoftheyear.

Libyan production continues to go from strength to strength, up by 150kb/d to 1.3mb/d in February.


Januaryoutputwasrevised175kb/dhigheronmorecompletedata,to1.15mb/d.Outputisnowonly
around 300kb/d below prewar levels of 1.6mb/d. IOCs in the country expect production to be
maintained at current levels over the next few months due to planned maintenance and other repair
work. The Arabian Gulf Oil Company (AGOCO)operated fields are currently running 125kb/d below
capacityduetotechnicalproblems.Electricityproblemsatsomefields,includingMesslaandSarir,have
curbedoutputtoaround300kb/dbutvolumesareexpectedtorampuptowardsthe425kb/dtargetby
lateApril.Meanwhile,unrestinthecountryseasternregionovercallsforautonomyfromTripolihaveso
farnotdisruptedproductionatfieldsoperatedbystateownedAGOCO,whichisbasedinBenghazi.

mb/d
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-09

mb/d

Libya Crude Production

Nigerian Crude Production

2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6

Oct-09

Jul-10

Apr-11

1.4
Jan-09

Jan-12

Oct-09

Jul-10

Apr-11

Jan-12

NigerianoutputinFebruaryroseby100kb/d,to2.14mb/d,andhasnowrecoveredtothehighestlevel
in five months, when output reached 2.18mb/d last September. A wave of militant activity in recent
months reduced output to an average 2.05mb/d for December and January. The startup of the
Totaloperated180kb/ddeepwaterUsanfieldatendofFebruaryalsoboostedsupplies.Usan,amedium
sweetcrude,hasanAPIof30degreesandsulphurcontentof0.26%.Initialproductionwasmuchhigher
thanforecast,withseveralextracargoesofferedforApril.

AngolanproductioninFebruaryrose60kb/dto1.76mb/d.Productionisnowatthehighestlevelsince
April2010,thankstothesteadyrampupinproductionfromtheTotaloperated220kb/dPazflordeep
watercomplex.Startupofthe150kb/dPSVMfieldsisontrackfor3Q12.

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European Refiners Tapped Other OPEC Supply to Replace Lost Libyan Barrels
Prior to the onset of Libyas civil war, OECD Europe imported over 1.1mb/d of Libyas total 1.3mb/d of
crudeexports,sothelossofsupplieshittheregionsrefinersfarharderthanelsewhere.Withthebenefitof
afullofficial2011dataset,itisnowpossibletoquantifytheimpactofthelostLibyansuppliesuponcrudeoil
flowsintoOECDEurope.WhentheconflicteruptedinlateFebruaryLibyanexportstoOECDEuropedeclined
sharplybeforedryingupfromMayonwardswhileincrementalsuppliesfromothersourcesbegantoarrive
intheregionfromMarchonwards.Despitethearrivalofthesealternativesupplies,OECDEuropeimported
onaverage150kb/dlesscrudein2011thanin2010.
OECD Europe Crude Imports

kb/d
4000

3.0

3500

Selected Crude Oil Export Streams


by Quality
Basrah Light

2.5

3000
% Sulphur

2500
2000
1500
1000

2.0

Libya
Iraq
Congo

Kirkuk
Arab Light

1.5
1.0

500
0
Jan-11

Arab
Medium

Arab Extra
Light
Brazil
Roncador

Es Sider

0.5
Apr-11

Jul-11
Saudi Arabia
Angola
Brazil

Bonny

Oct-11
Nigeria
Algeria
Colombia

0.0
28.0

32.0

Qua Iboe

36.0

API

Congo
N'Kossa
Saharan
Cusiana
Blend
Sarir
Bu Attifel
El Shahara

40.0

44.0

48.0

Thelight,sweetnatureofLibyancrudesandtheirhighyieldsofgasoline,lowsulphurdieselandjetfuellimited
the options for refiners to directly replace them with similar grades. It was previously noted (see Libyas
UprisingSeesOilSuppliesDwindleinOMR15March2011)thattheclosestqualityreplacementsforthelost
LibyanstreamsofEsSider,Sarir,ElShaharaandBuAttifelwereEkofiskandBrentcrudesfromtheNorthSea,
BTCBlendfromtheFSU,BonnyandQuaIboefromWestAfricaandAlgerianSaharanBlend.However,adding
tothetightnessinmarkets,anumberofthesestreamswerealsohitbyproductionproblemsin2011.Notably,
afteranoutagehityear,NorthSeaproductionwas350kb/dlowerin2011thanayearearlier,while2H11Azeri
fieldmaintenanceconstrainedsuppliesofBTCblendbyapproximately100kb/d.
TodealwiththeseextraconstraintsEuropeanrefinersturnedtoOPECmembersSaudiArabia,Nigeria,Iraq
andAngolatofillthegapbyincreasingsuppliesofmanycrudesalreadywidelyusedwithintheregion.By
comparingtheincrementalsupplies,whicharrivedinOECDEuropefromApriltoDecember2011withtheir
2010averages,itisapparentthattheseOPECmemberssuppliedacombined520kb/dofextracrude.Saudi
Arabia supplied the lions share of the increment at 200kb/d (including 160kb/d of Arab Light) while
Nigeria,IraqandAngolacontributed170kb/d,90kb/dand60kb/d,respectively.However,theSaudiand
IraqicrudesweresourandthusnotdirectreplacementsforlostLibyanstreams;thisthereforelimitedtheir
useaslikeforlikereplacementswithinmanysimpleEuropeanrefinerieswithoutdesulphurisationcapacity.
Incremental Nigerian and Angolan supplies were likely light, lowsulphur grades such as Bonny Light, Qua
Iboe and Girassol but these were not imported in quantities sufficient to replace light Libyan streams.
AlgeriainitiallyuppedsuppliesoftheexceptionallyhighqualitySaharanBlendduring2Q11butvolumeshad
droppedoffby4Q11.
Thisscarcityoflight,sweetcrudesandtherelatedincreaseinsweetsourdifferentialsdrewinunexpected
longhaulnonOPECsupplies.Forexamplebytheendoftheyear80kb/dofColombianCusianawasbeing
importedtoEuropewhilstpreviouslyonlytheoddspotcargohadbeenusedintheregionsrefineries.One
factorfortheincreasedvolumesofLatinAmericancrudesbeingshippedtoEurope,especiallyduring3Q11
was the IEA Libya Collective Action, as the release of 30 mb of light, sweet US SPR crude likely displaced
othersweetcrudesfromtheUSGulfcrudeslatewhichwerethenshippedtoEurope.
NowthattheLibyanconflicthasendedandcrudeproductionisbeingrampedup,flowsintoEuropeareonce
again looking similar to 2010 as imports of Middle Eastern sour crudes have fallen back to their previous
levels.However,itisinterestingtonotethatimportsoflight,sweetWestAfricanandLatinAmericancrudes
haveheldupabovetheir2010volumes,signallingthatEuropeisstillseekingdistillaterichgrades.

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Non-OPEC Overview
NonOPECoilproductionisestimatedtohavefallenby0.5mb/dto52.8mb/dinFebruary,largelydueto
weather and mechanicalrelated field outages in the North Sea and Canada, continued unrest and
additionalsanctionsinSyria,pipelinesabotageandlabourstrikesinColombiaandYemen,andthetransit
disputebetweenSudanandSouthSudan.ThelatterdisputeislikelytodentnonOPECoutputin2012by
around280kb/dcomparedto1H11levels.Theseunplannedshutinstotalmorethan750kb/din1Q12.

DespitemuchpessimismaboutnonOPECsupplygrowth,productionin1Q12isstillexpectedtogrowby
around 300kb/d and by around 730kb/d for the entire year. Weatherrelated and mechanical issues
continuetohinderoutputintheNorthSea,especiallyinDenmarkandtheUK.Newoutagesatoilsands
facilitiesinCanadaaswellaspipelinesabotageinColombiaareexpectedtomitigatethestronggrowth
inotherpartsoftheAmericas,especiallyinlighttightoilplaysintheUS.

mb/d
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500

Non-OPEC Supply - Revisions

mb/d
1.2

Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change

0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
-0.3
-0.6

1Q11
NAM
China
PG & Biofuels

3Q11

1Q12
OECD EUR
Other Asia
Other

3Q12
FSU
LAM
Total

1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
Crude
NGL
Processing Gains
Non-conv
Global Biofuels
Total

ButtheworseningprospectsandhighuncertaintyconcerningSouthSudansandSyriasoutputwilllikely
have the largest effect on nonOPEC supply in coming months. This outlook assumes that Sudan and
South Sudan will still contribute 180kb/d to nonOPEC output (half of which is from South Sudan)
assumingthatsomeproductionisrestartedby2H12givensevereeconomicpressures.Thisoutlooknow
also assumes a gloomier scenario in Syria than last month in which production falls by 150kb/d to
averageonly180kb/din2012.Amorepessimisticscenario,yetnotoutoftherealmofpossibility,which
leaves South Sudanese output at minimal levels, shows no improvement for Yemens outlook in 2012
from current levels, and constrains Syrian production to around 100kb/d, would cut overall nonOPEC
outputgrowthin2012by150kb/dto590kb/d.

Revisions for 2011 centre upon delayed data for Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Africa. These and
other baseline revisions result in an overall downward revision of 90kb/d in 4Q11 to 53.1mb/d. 2011
nonOPEC supply growth is revised downwards by less than 10kb/d to 130kb/d. In addition to the
worsening outlook in the Middle East and Africa, North Sea production continues to underperform
expectationsin1Q12byaround90kb/d,averaging3.0mb/d,andacceleratingtheyearonyeardeclineto
330kb/d.Insum,nonOPECsupplygrowthiscutby200kb/dfor2012to53.4mb/d,withtheUSasthe
onlybrightspot.

OECD
North America
US January preliminary, Alaska and North Dakota actual, other states estimated: Based on
preliminary weekly data, US crude oil supply fell slightly to 5.8mb/d in January. A small fire at the
PrudhoeBayfieldreducedoutputbyaround50kb/dforacoupledays,butoutputhasquicklyreturned
to average levels of 350kb/d. The decline in Alaska in January was mostly offset by rapidly increasing
production in light tight oil plays, especially in North Dakota and Texas. We have revised upwards the

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forecast for Texas production to take into account increased drilling activity in the Eagle Ford and
Wolfberryplays.TheTexasandneighbouringNewMexicoplaysarebeingtappedquicklyinthecurrent
high price environment because the resources have already been comprehensively explored and
takeawaycapacityisfarlessconstrainedthanintheBakken.

Transcanada recentlyannouncedthatitplans tomoveaheadwith constructingthe700kb/dsouthern


sectionoftheKeystoneXLpipeline,whichcanbegincarryingcrudefromCushing,Oklahoma,totheGulf
Coast.Finally,GulfofMexicooutputhasbeenreducedbyalmost100kb/dinthisoutlooktotakeinto
accountdelayedfieldstartupsatseveralfacilities.Onapositivenote,Petrobrasannouncedfirstoilfrom
theCascadefield,whichisproducedfromanFPSOintheGulf.Onthewhole,USliquidsoutputshould
increaseby380kb/d(ofwhich310kb/discrude)in2012to8.5mb/d.

mb/d
1.0

US Total Oil Supply - Yearly Change

mb/d

0.8

3.9

0.6

3.7

0.4

3.5

0.2

3.3

0.0

Canada - Total Liquids Supply

3.1

-0.2

2.9

-0.4
1Q11
Alaska
Other Low er-48
Other

3Q11

1Q12

3Q12

California
Gulf of Mexico
Total

Texas
NGLs

Jan

Mar

May

2008
2010
2011 forecast

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast

Canada December actual: Canadian oil output reached an alltime record of 3.8mb/d in December
2011, but unplanned outages have reduced synthetic crude production by 50kb/d in 1Q12 from the
priorquarter.CNRLs110kb/dHorizonupgraderwasshutdownforrepairsandwillnotreturntoservice
untilmidtolateMarch(fourweekslaterthaninitiallyexpected)accordingtotheoperator.Inaddition,a
coking unit at Canadian Oil Sands Syncrude facility was shut down in February, reducing the 300kb/d
facilitysoutputbyaround100kb/d.Finally,Enbridgeidleda318kb/dcrudeoilpipelineforseveraldays
afteratrafficcollisionnearapumpingstation.ThelinecarriesCanadianoiltoIndianaviathealready
backedupSuperior,Wisconsinpoint.TheincidentstimingwasfortuitousasCanadiansyntheticoilflows
werealreadylowerbecauseoftheunplannedoutagesmentionedabove.Theseincidentshaveresulted
ina20kb/drevisionforCanadianoilproductionfor2012,whichnowaverages3.7mb/d,comparedto
3.5mb/din2011.Lookingforward,Canadasoutputisassumedtobereducedbyanaverageof50kb/d
in each month for random supply shortfalls as part of the 200kb/d nonOPEC supply allowance. In
addition, beginning with last months outlook we assume that on an annual basis mining and in situ
projectoutputisotherwisereducedbyanadditional35kb/dforplannedandunplannedmaintenance.

North Sea
Weather,unplannedandplannedmaintenance,andotherpipelineoutagescontinuetoplagueNorthSea
production in 1Q12. During the first half of last year, unplanned outages in the North Sea averaged
90kb/d curbing output to 3.2 mb/d, its lowest level on record. Many of the problems from that time
have now been resolved, which we expect to prop up the annual trend slightly. For the remainder of
2012, field underperformance and some project slippage will reduce North Sea crude and condensate
outputandhavealreadyresultedindeferredloadingsinApril.Someoperatorsarealreadyannouncing
summer maintenance plans, but are also indicating that other maintenance will occur in the spring,
slightlyearlierthan expected.WithweatherrelatedshutinsandmaintenanceinDenmarktoo,output
from the North Sea in 2012 is expected to fall by 0.14 mb/d (or 4.6%) to 2.9 mb/d. These estimates
assume that maintenance losses in Norway and the UK in 2Q12 and 3Q12 are around 40kb/d greater
thanlastyear,reducingoutputlevelsby190kb/d.

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Norway January preliminary, December actual: Production fell by around 10kb/d in January from
December2011toaverage2.0 mb/d, around120kb/dloweryearonyear. The Gja,Tyrihans, Morvin,
and Volve fields all turned in lacklustre performances in the last couple months of 2011, and we have
adjusted our outlook downwards for those fields in 2012. Unplanned maintenance at Statfjord has cut
production by over half to around 20kb/d in March. Also, shareholders of the 40kb/d Yme field
announcedyetanother612monthdelayinstartupto2013,whichcontributedtothe40kb/drevision
toNorways2012liquidsestimate.Thisnowaverages2.0mb/din2012,around80kb/dlowerthan2011.

mb/d

mb/d

UK Offshore Crude Oil Supply

Norway Liquids Supply

2.7

1.6

2.5

1.4

2.3

1.2

2.1

1.0

1.9
1.7

0.8
Jan

Mar

May

2008
2010
2011 forecast

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast

Jan

Mar

May

2008
2010
2011 forecast

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

2009
2011
2012 forecast

UKDecemberpreliminary,Novemberactual:Crudeoilproductionisexpectedtofallby14%annually
in 1Q12 to 960kb/d, which is slightly steeper than last years annual decline from 1Q10. Although we
remain three months away from a full set of fieldspecific data for 1Q12, we assume that Buzzards
productionaveraged170kb/din1Q12,whichisaround40kb/dbelowcapacityandissupportedbythe
operators statements to the media about daily production levels. Because of continuing performance
problemsatthisandotherfields,UKliquidsproductionisaveragingaround1.1mb/din1Q12,around
10kb/dlessthan4Q11.PlannedmaintenanceislikelytobegininlateMarchandrununtiltheendofthe
summer,whichwillkeep UK productionatanaverageof1.1mb/dfortheyear,afallofaround4.4%.
Rebounding production from the Forties system (largely Buzzard) and West of Shetlands (from
Schiehallion)andtheadditionoftheAthenafieldinlate2Q12(afteradelayeddeliveryoftheFPSO)will
mitigatefallingproductionatmaturefieldsthatweassumearedecliningatratesof1522%.

DenmarkJanuaryactual:Danishcrudeoilproductionfellto190kb/d,itslowestlevelssincethemid
1990s in December 2011 and contributed to overall lower North Sea output. January saw only a small
improvement. Production should return to 210kb/d in 2Q12, which is still an average 11% lower than
last year, but will fall again in August as maintenance will shut in the 10kb/d Tyra East field. The
shutdownwillalsoaffectaround20kb/dofproductioninNorway.

Other OECD
Mexico January actual: Production at the KMZ and Cantarell fields fell in January, lowering Mexican
crude output by 40kb/d to 2.5 mb/d. These fields sustained and even increased production levels in
2011throughincreased drillingonshoreandthrough EORtechnologiesat shallowwaterfields,leaving
Mexicancrudeproductionin2011only0.6%lower.Maturefielddeclineselsewhereandalackofnew
projectswillreduceproductionby3.3%to2.5mb/dthisyear.Pemexplanstoincreaseitsdrillingactivity
inthe GulfofMexiconearthePerdidofoldbelt(closetothePerdidoandGreatWhitefields),but the
companystilllacksexperienceindrillingforoilatdepthsbeyond6400metres.Thatisonlyalittlemore
than half the depth to which the US fields had been drilled. In such a remote area of the Gulf,
infrastructurechallengesarelikelytoslowdevelopment.

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Non-OECD
Former Soviet Union
In the Caspian, production fell more sharply than anticipated in Azerbaijan in 4Q11 to 760kb/d, the
lowestlevelsince4Q08,duetomaintenanceattheAzeriChiragGuneshli(ACG)field.Weexpectsome
uptickinproductionin1Q11asthismaintenanceiscompleted,butaslowerreturntonormalratesthan
lastmonthfromalowerbaseline.Asaresult,Azerbaijaniproductionin2012isreviseddownwardsby
10kb/dto990kb/d,or60kb/dhigherthan2011.InKazakhstan,TengizChevroilrecentlyindicateditwill
carryoutmaintenanceatafieldprocessinglineduring2Q12(reducingoutputbyaround80kb/d)andin
August at its 300kb/d Second Generation Project. Maintenance also reduced output by as much as
70kb/dattheKarachaganakfield.Overall,Kazakhstansoutputshouldfallbyaround1.0%or20kb/din
2012to1.6mb/dlargelyunchangedfromtheforecastlastmonth.

Russia February actual: Data for February show liquids production unchanged at January levels of
10.6mb/d.GazpromscondensateoutputfellslightlyinFebruaryfromJanuary,butincreasedproduction
from Rosnefts Vankor and PSA output offset the decline. The Vankor field is now producing almost
340kb/d,comparedto280kb/datthesametimelastyear.Onaverage,JanuaryandFebruarylevelsare
1.1%higherthantheprioryearslevels.Wemaintainthatincreasingcondensatevolumes,risingoutput
fromEasternSiberiangreenfields,andsustainedoutputatbrownfieldsamidthishighpriceenvironment
will contribute to a 1.2% increase in Russian liquids supply in 2012, averaging 10.7mb/d versus
10.6mb/din2011.

Annual Growth: Caspian Oil


Production

kb/d
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300

kb/d
400

Annual Growth: Russian Oil Production

300
200
100
0
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12

-100
1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12

Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan

Other Russian Liquids

Novatek

Gazprom

FSU net exports rose by 440kb/d to 9.2mb/d in January driven by a significant 400kb/d increase in
productshipments.Crudevolumesrosebyamarginal10kb/dafterareboundinCaspianexportsoffset
a20kb/ddecreaseinTransneftflows.DeliveriesofTurkmenandAzerbaijanioilthroughtheBTCpipeline
increasedby50kb/dto700kb/duponthecompletionofmaintenanceattheACGcomplex.CPCflows
increased by 40kb/d to 650kb/d following rising production at the Tengiz field but volumes remain
approximately 150kb/d below peak levels due to constraints resulting from Phase 1 of the CPC
expansionproject.IncreasedCPCflowsoffsetdeclineselsewhereintheBlackSeaastheUkrainianports
fell out of favour with exporters. Cargoes sent via Primorsk rebounded by 50kb/d after completion of
maintenance on the BPS pipeline with the rise being equally split between Russian and Kazakhstani
crudes.Elsewhere,Druzhbapipelineflowsfellby40kb/dafterlessRussianUralswasdeliveredtoPoland
andshipmentsofESPOfromKozminoincheddownby20kb/d.

Increasing refinery runs, coupled with a seasonal dip in demand, were the primary drivers for the
exceptional400kb/dhikeinproductsshipments,withexportsoffueloil,gasoilandothergasoilgrowing
by180kb/d,150kb/dand60kb/d,respectively.Reboundingdomesticdemand,additionalmaintenanceat
Primorsk,andcoldweatherlikelyreducednetproductexportsinFebruary.

14M ARCH 2012

23

S UPPLY

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

FSU Net Exports of Crude & Petroleum Products


(million barrels per day)

2010

2011

1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011

Nov 11 Dec 11

Jan 12

Latest month vs.


Dec 11 Jan 11

Crude
Black Sea

2.10

1.93

2.06

1.87

1.87

1.92

2.05

1.85

1.83

-0.02

Baltic

1.60

1.50

1.48

1.57

1.37

1.56

1.68

1.48

1.53

0.05

-0.35
0.11

Arctic/FarEast

0.74

0.67

0.70

0.69

0.65

0.65

0.60

0.63

0.63

0.00

-0.05

BTC

0.77

0.70

0.72

0.76

0.69

0.64

0.61

0.64

0.69

0.05

0.06

Crude Seaborne

5.22

4.80

4.96

4.89

4.58

4.77

4.94

4.60

4.68

0.08

-0.22

Druzhba Pipeline

1.13

1.17

1.14

1.12

1.18

1.24

1.24

1.28

1.23

-0.04

0.08

Other Routes

0.42

0.53

0.53

0.54

0.54

0.50

0.49

0.52

0.50

-0.02

-0.01

Total Crude Exports


Of Which: Transneft1

6.76

6.50

6.63

6.55

6.30

6.51

6.68

6.40

6.41

0.01

-0.15

4.00

4.18

4.15

4.16

4.09

4.31

4.48

4.22

4.21

-0.02

0.07

Products
Fuel oil2

1.54

1.58

1.43

1.82

1.59

1.46

1.50

1.44

1.62

0.18

0.19

Gasoil

0.88

0.77

0.90

0.79

0.72

0.69

0.69

0.67

0.83

0.15

-0.08

Other Products

0.43

0.43

0.48

0.53

0.36

0.33

0.27

0.37

0.44

0.06

0.00

Total Product

2.85

2.77

2.81

3.14

2.66

2.49

2.47

2.48

2.88

0.40

0.12

Total Exports

9.61

9.27

9.44

9.68

8.96

9.00

9.15

8.88

9.29

0.41

-0.03

Imports

0.07

0.09

0.08

0.08

0.10

0.08

0.07

0.11

0.08

-0.03

0.00

Net Exports

9.55

9.18

9.37

9.60

8.86

8.91

9.08

8.77

9.21

0.44

-0.03

Sources: Argus Media Ltd, IEA estimates


1

Transneft data exclude Russian CPC volumes.


Includes Vacuum Gas Oil

Latin America
Brazil January actual: Brazilian crude and condensate production rose an additional 15kb/d to record
levels of around 2.2mb/d in January. New wells lifted Marlim Sul production by 40kb/d to 310kb/d. In
November2011,thefieldsP40platformsufferedagasleak,butitsproductiononlyfellbyaround10kb/d
to65kb/dinthatmonth.PetrobrasannouncedasecondgasleakatthefieldinearlyMarchatthe180kb/d
capacityP51platform.Thecompanyreportedthatitwasconductingscheduledmaintenanceatthetime.
WeexpectthistohaveanegligibleaffectonMarlimSulsoutputbecauseofotherincreases.Inaddition,at
thebeginningofFebruaryPetrobrasannouncedthatoilandgasproductionatCariocaNordeste,apresalt
field,wouldbedownforaround60days.Thefieldhadbeenproducingaround12kb/dduring4Q11during
anextendedwelltest.Theseincidents,alongwithaminordownwardrevisiontoBrazilNGLoutput,have
contributedtoa10kb/drevisiontothe2012outlook.

Colombia Production Levels


ColombiaFebruary
preliminary:
Colombias
kb/d
1100
productionisexpectedtoaveragearound940kb/din
Forecast
1Q12, 70kb/d higher than 1Q10. In January,
1000
electricity problems on the Cao Limn pipeline and
900
at various oil fields kept production under 950kb/d.
800
However, production fell sharply below 900kb/d in
Februaryfor thefirst timesince September 2011due
700
to further pipeline sabotage on the Cao Limn
600
pipeline. The 220kb/d capacity line takes crude from
500
the Cao Limn and other area fields. Operator
Occidentalisconsideringdeclaringaforcemajeureand
suspendingoperationsgiventhepersistentdamageto
the line. Production at Cao Limn alone fell from around 55kb/d in 2009 to around 20kb/d in
September2011(latestavailable).Takingintoaccountaheightenedriskofsabotage,Colombiasoiloutput
growthin2012isreducedby10kb/dto90kb/dandshouldaveragearound1.0mb/din2012.

24

14M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

S UPPLY

Asia
Liquidsproductionrosetoalmostaround690kb/dinMalaysiainJanuary2012onrisingoutputfromthe
KikehandSepatfields.ThestrongoutputlevelsfromKikehhavebeencarriedthroughtheformerlymore
conservativeforecast,whichhasresultedina50kb/dupwardsrevision.Newfieldadditionsshouldraise
Malaysian output by around 20kb/d to 670kb/d in 2012 after mechanical issues at Kikeh dented the
countrysoutputin2011.Indonesiasoiloutputisexpectedtodeclineby7.1%to870kb/dthisyear,which
is a slight improvement from last months estimate. The +10kb/d revision to the yearonyear decline
stemsfroma2011upwardsrevisiontotakeintoaccountnewlyrevisedgovernmentdata.

Africa
Sudan&SouthSudan:Thecontinuingtransitdispute
Sudan and South Sudan Oil Output
500
SUDAN
between Sudan and South Sudan has removed
450
Total Exports
almost350kb/dfromworldoilmarkets,anditisthe
400
Source: Lloyd's
largest contributor to recent revisions to nonOPEC
Marine Itnelligence
350
300
supply estimates for 2012. The IEA focused on the
S.SUDAN
250
dispute in last months OMR, (see Sudan and
200
Chinese Imports
SouthSudan: Over a Barrel Again, OMR dated
150
Source: China OGP
100
10February2012) noting that average production
50
wouldbereducedby200kb/din1Q12.Historicaland
0
forecast production from these countries are highly
uncertain, with only anecdotal information, hearsay,
occasional government updates, and thirdparty
export statistics as sources. We revise upwards 4Q11 South Sudan production by 60kb/d to 340kb/d
from last months estimate based on updated export figures and higher Block 3/7 production during
2H11. We have also tempered expectations for a restart to this production in 2012, reducing
SouthSudans forecast by 90kb/d. We expect production will fall by 220kb/d in 1Q12 from the prior
quarter. Likewise, production in 2012 is expected to be 280kb/d lower than 1H11 when output was
proceedingnormally.NewsthatSouthSudanwouldbeginarrangementswithitssouthernneighboursto
truck some oil has only slightly mitigated the darkening outlook for the countrys oil production. We
assume that the country will be able to export increasing volumes of its crude by truck in upcoming
months. We acknowledge that the actual outcome could be much worse due to problems obtaining
trucks,problemswithrestartingquicklyshutinproductionorfurtherescalationofcrossborderconflict.
Infact,SouthSudanallegedthatSudanhadbombedtwooilfieldsintheUnityareainlateFebruary.All
told, combined production for the countries is now seen averaging 180kb/d in 2012 compared with
450kb/din2011.

Outside of Sudan and South Sudan, oil production is increasing gradually in nonOPEC countries. In
Ghana, Tullow recently reported that it had completed Phase 1 development at the Jubilee field in
October,bringingproductionratestoapeakof88kb/d,decliningtoaround70kb/dbytheendof2011.
The Government of Ghana approved the installation of five new producing wells (Phase 1A) early this
year.Weexpectproductionratestoaveragearound80kb/din2012,inthemiddleoftherangeofthe
companysforecast,withratesofaround90kb/dbyDecember2012and105kb/din2013.Tullowalso
reported that it had finally signed an agreement with the Government of Uganda on the continued
development of fields in Exploration Area (EA) 1 and at the Kanywataba prospect. The agreement
includes the farmdown of 2/3 of its shares to Total and CNOOC. Total will operate EA 1, Tullow will
operateEA2,andCNOOCwilloperatetheKanywatabaProspectAreaandtheKingfisherfield.Assuming
thisproductioncomesonlineonschedulein2013,productioncouldreachashighas140kb/dby2016.
Production from the Aseng field (in Block I in Equatorial Guinea) came online on 6 November 2011,
aheadoftheplannedstartupin1Q12.Thefieldsproductionreachedaround50kb/dattheendof2011
andhasincreasedmarginallyto55kb/din1Q12,bringingEquatorialGuineasproductionto290kb/d.

14M ARCH 2012

25

S UPPLY

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Middle East
Yemens output averaged around 180 kb/d in 4Q11, around 120 kb/d below 2010 levels of 300 kb/d.
Production fared worse in 1Q12 and especially in February and is estimated to have dropped an
additional20kb/dto160kb/dfromthepriorquarter.ThecontinuedtargetingoftheMariboilpipeline,
whichflows270milestotheRedSeaportofRasIssa,hasfrequentlyshutinproductionatthefieldsin
Block18andhasrequiredthecountrytoimportrefinedproducts.InFebruary,afourdaylonglabour
strikeatTotalsBlock10compromised70kb/dofproduction,andaninedaylongstrikeinBlock14shut
in52kb/dofproductionaccordingtomediareports.ThesestrikesreducedYemensmonthlyaverageby
anadditional40kb/dtolessthan140kb/dinFebruary.Alltold,Yemensliquidsproductionisexpected
to fall by 50 kb/d to 180 kb/d in 2012 on the assumption that that 2Q124Q12 period sees modest
improvementscomparedtofirstquarterlevels.

Syrias liquids production is expected to fall by around 30kb/d to 170kb/d by December 2012, in a
marked decrease from last months expectations for a rebound to 2011 levels. The attacks on energy
infrastructure around Homs have continued although the government has appeared to gain ground
againsttheopposition.Despitethesegains,theoppositionislikelytocontinuetosabotagetheenergy
infrastructure,arguablymoreso.Inthemediumtolongterm,newproposedUSsanctionsagainstSyria
arelikelytotightenthescrewsonpotentialinvestmentintheenergysector.TheHouseForeignAffairs
committeeunanimouslypassedtheSyriaFreedomSupportAct(H.R.2106),whichstillrequirespassage
bythefullHouseandSenate.Thebill
Orders the US President to impose sanctions on parties making a single petroleum development
investment of over $5 million or a series of investments that are at least $2 million (and exceed
$5millionintheaggregate).
Directs the President to sanction entities that invest in the maintenance or expansion of refined
productproductioninquantitiesofmorethan$1million.
OrdersthePresidenttoimposesanctionsonentitiesthatsellrefinedproductswithavalueofmore
than$1million.
SanctionsentitiesthatfinanceorinsureanySyrianenergyshipmentsintooroutofthecountry.

Oman December preliminary: Oil production in Oman reached around 900kb/d in December and is
expected to average similar levels for 2012 as a whole. Enhanced oil recovery via steam flood at
OxysMukhaizna project and PDOs Harwheel miscible gas project will offset declines elsewhere in
comingyears.Inarecentinvestorpresentation,Oxyclaimedthatadditionalvolumesaresoontocome
fromadditionalsteamflooding.AccordingtonewlyreleaseddatabytheOmaniMinistryofOilandGas,
PDO(aconsortiumledbyShellbutwitha60%governmentshare)produced549kb/dofcrudeoiland
94kb/dofcondensatein2011,roughly73%ofthecountrysliquidsoutput.PDOrecentlynotedthatit
wouldbeturningtounconventionalresourcesinordertofulfilthegovernmentsrequirement tokeep
productionabove550kb/dforover10years.

26

14M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

OECD S TOCKS

OECD STOCKS

Summary
OECDindustrytotaloilinventoriesrosebyamuted13.6mbinJanuary,to2614mb.Thedeficitof
stocks versus the fiveyear average widened to 68.9 mb, from 39.3 mb in December. As a result,
absolute inventory levels have stood below the fiveyear average for seven successive months, and
well towards the lower end of the fiveyear range. However in terms of days of forward demand
cover, OECD commercial oil holdings remained 1.0 day above the fiveyear average, at 57.8 days,
albeitcoverhasdeclinedby1.4days,yearonyear.

Preliminarydataindicatea12.6mbdeclineinFebruaryOECDindustryinventories,comparedwitha
fiveyearaverage38.8mbdrop.Crudeoilinventoriesroseby5.4mbwhileproductholdingsdropped
by22.5mb.Middledistillatestocksledtheproductdecline,offby15.4mb.

mb

OECD Total Oil Stocks

2,816
2,766
2,716
2,666
2,616
2,566
2,516
Jan Mar May
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

OECD Industry Total Oil Stocks

mb

Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2007-2011
2012

Relative to Five-Year
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
Pacific
Europe

Average

Jul 11
Jan 12
North Am erica
OECD

OECD Inventories at End-January and Revisions to Preliminary Data


OECDindustrytotaloilinventoriesroseby13.6mbto2614mbinJanuary,comparedwithafiveyear
average43.2mbbuild.Withthegainsinstocksfallingwellshortofthehistoricalaverage,thedeficitof
inventories versus the fiveyear average widened to 68.9 mb, from 39.3 mb in December. As a result,
inventorylevelshavestoodbelowthefiveyearaverageforsevensuccessivemonths,andnowlieclose
to the bottom of the fiveyear historical range. However in terms of days of forward demand cover,
OECDcommercialoilholdingsremained1.0dayabovethefiveyearaverage,at57.8days,albeitcover
has declined by 1.6 days, yearonyear. Regionally, the absolute surplus of stocks versus the fiveyear
averageinNorthAmericaroseslightly,whiledeficitsinEuropeandthePacificwidenedsubstantially.

Preliminary Industry Stock Change in January and Fourth Quarter 2011


January (preliminary)
(million barrels)
N. Am

Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
1
Other Oils
Total Oil

10.3
11.2
2.1
-1.0
-12.5
-0.3
5.4
15.4

Europe

Pacific

8.5
1.0
-6.5
0.3
-0.6
-5.9
0.5
3.1

-7.6
2.8
1.5
0.7
-4.9
0.0
2.6
-5.0

Fourth Quarter 2011


(million barrels per day)

(million barrels per day)


Total

N. Am

Europe

Pacific

Total

N. Am

Europe

Pacific

Total

11.2
14.9
-3.0
-0.1
-18.1
-6.2
8.6
13.6

0.33
0.36
0.07
-0.03
-0.40
-0.01
0.18
0.50

0.27
0.03
-0.21
0.01
-0.02
-0.19
0.02
0.10

-0.25
0.09
0.05
0.02
-0.16
0.00
0.08
-0.16

0.36
0.48
-0.10
0.00
-0.58
-0.20
0.28
0.44

-0.04
0.09
-0.03
-0.02
-0.15
-0.11
-0.20
-0.35

-0.24
0.06
0.10
-0.04
-0.02
0.09
0.03
-0.12

-0.01
-0.02
-0.07
-0.01
-0.07
-0.18
-0.04
-0.23

-0.29
0.13
0.00
-0.07
-0.25
-0.20
-0.21
-0.70

1 Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons.

Crude stocks rose seasonally by 11.2mb to 917mb, nonetheless marking a seventh straight month of
belowaveragereadings.CrudeholdingsinNorthAmericaandEuropeincreasedby10.3mband8.5mb,
respectivelywhilethePacificshowedadropof7.6mb.Lowerrefinerythroughput,affectedbyaseriesof
refineryclosuresandscheduledturnarounds,ledtoabuildincrudestocksinNorthAmericaandEurope.

14M ARCH 2012

27

OECD S TOCKS

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Inthemeantime,productinventoriesfellby6.2mb,instarkcontrastwithafiveyearaverage23.9mb
build,increasingthedeficitagainstthefiveyearaverageto39.1mb,from9.0mbinDecember.Mostof
the product stock draw stemmed from Europe, where middle distillate stocks fell by 6.5mb. North
America showed a modest decline of 0.3mb while product holdings in the Pacific remained
virtuallyunchanged.

mb

OECD Crude Oil Stocks

mb

OECD Total Products Stocks

1,544

1,044

1,494

994

1,444
944
1,394
894

1,344

844
Jan Mar May
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

1,294
Jan Mar May
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2007-2011
2012

Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2007-2011
2012

OECD stocks were revised 10.3mb lower for December, upon receipt of more complete monthly
submissions from member countries. This implies a steeperthanusual 53.4mb decline in December
inventorylevels,comparedwithpreliminaryestimatesofa40.8mbdrop.Downwardadjustmentswere
centred on North American crude oil and other oils stocks, which were revised down by 5.7mb and
6.7mb, respectively. Higherthaninitially estimated European middle distillate stocks provided a
partialoffset.

Revisions versus 10 February 2012 Oil Market Report


(million barrels)

North America
Nov-11

Crude Oil
Gasoline
Middle Distillates
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total Products
1
Other Oils
Total Oil

0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.5

Europe

Pacific

Dec-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

-5.7
-3.6
5.1
-3.3
-1.9
-3.6
-6.7
-16.1

-0.6
0.0
1.5
0.0
0.0
1.5
-0.1
0.8

-1.6
0.9
6.7
-0.3
0.4
7.8
-1.3
4.9

Nov-11

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

OECD

Dec-11

-0.3
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.2
1.1
0.0
0.9

Nov-11

0.0
0.0
1.5
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.8
2.3

Dec-11

-7.6
-2.3
12.4
-3.6
-1.2
5.3
-8.0
-10.3

Preliminary data indicate a 12.6 mb decline in February OECD industry inventories, compared with a
fiveyearaverage38.8mbdrop.Crudeoilinventoriesroseby5.4mbwhileproductholdingsplummeted
by22.5mb.Allproductstockcategoriesshoweddeclines,albeitfocusedonmiddledistillateinventories.
This category plunged by 15.4mb on strong demand for diesel and heating oil. Gasoline, fuel oil and
otherproductsholdingsalsofellby3.2mb,3.0mband0.9mb,respectively.

1 Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons.

Analysis of Recent OECD Industry Stock Changes


OECD North America
North American industry oil inventories rose by 15.4mb to 1325mb in January, widening the surplus
versus the fiveyear average to 38.0mb, from 35.2mb in December. Crude oil and other oils stocks,
includingfeedstocks,ledtheincrease,upby10.3mband5.4mb,respectively,duemostlytoscheduled
refinerymaintenanceintheUS.

28

14M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

OECD S TOCKS

Meanwhile, product inventories edged down by 0.3mb as a sharp decline in other products holdings
outweighedanincreaseingasolinestocks.Otherproductsstocksfellby12.5mbontheincreaseduse
ofpropaneforheating,whilegasolineinventoriesroseby11.2mbduetolowerdemand.USpreliminary
datashowfourweekaveragegasolinedemanddeclinedtothelowestlevelsinceFebruary2001.Middle
distillate stocks rose by 2.1mb, as heating oil consumption was depressed by warmerthannormal
temperatures.
OECD North America Crude Oil
Stocks

mb
519
499

OECD North America Total Products


Stocks

mb
799
749

479
459

699

439

649

419
399
Jan

Mar May
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2007-2011
2012

599
Jan

Mar May
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2007-2011
2012

US weekly data show oil inventories edged down by 0.2mb in February, compared with a fiveyear
average19.7mbdraw.Crudeholdingsroseby6.4mb,mostofwhichstemmedfromCushing,Oklahoma.
CrudelevelsatCushingsurgedby5.5mbto35.8mb,markingtheirhighestlevelsinceJune2011dueto
theSeawaypipelinepurgeaswellaslowerrefinerythroughputs.
US Weekly Total Industry Stocks

mb

mb

1,200

45

1,150

40

1,100

35

US Weekly Cushing Crude Stocks

30

1,050

25

1,000

20

950

15

Source: EIA

900
Jan

Apr
Range 2007-2011
2011

Jul

Oct
5-yr Average
2012

Source: EIA

10
Jan

Apr
Jul
Range 2007-11
2011

Oct
5-yr Average
2012

USproductinventoriesfellby11.9mbinFebruaryonthebackofdeclinesacrosseveryproductcategory.
Middle distillate holdings took the lead, decreasing by 7.5mb. However, it was diesel stocks that
accountedformostofmiddledistillatesdecline,offby5.9mb.Heatingoilstocksedgeddownby0.6mb
onunusuallymildweatherintheNortheastregion.Gasolineinventoriesdeclinedby1.7mbasdemand
rosemonthonmonth,despiteremainingweak.Otherproductsandfueloilstocksalsofellby2.4mb
and0.3mb,respectively.

OECD Europe
Industry oil inventories in Europe rose by 3.1mb in January to 904mb, a milder increase than the
fiveyear average build of 21.1mb, thus widening the deficit versus the fiveyear average to 79.4mb
from61.5mbinDecember.Europeanstockshavethereforesetnewfiveyearlowsfornineofthelast
tenmonths(baringNovember2011)

Both lower refinery runs and higher regional output drove crude stocks up by 8.5mb, to 295mb.
However, they are still at the second lowest level since September 1997, and have stayed under the
fiveyear range for an eleventh straight month. At the same time, scheduled returns on loans from
Germanys stockholding agency, EBV, of at least 0.6mb of North Sea crude in January may have
contributedtoadownwardtrendinEuropeanindustrycrudeoilinventories.

14M ARCH 2012

29

OECD S TOCKS

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

In the meantime, European refined product holdings fell by 5.9mb in stark contrast with a fiveyear
average 20.6mb build. They fell below the fiveyear range for the first time since November 2007.
However,productstockslookcomfortablewhenmeasuredagainstforwarddemand,slightlyabovethe
fiveyearaverageat39.1daysofforwardcover.Middledistillatesledthedecrease,fallingby6.5mbon
strongdemandfordieselandheatingoil.Notably,German middledistillateholdingswerereportedto
havefallenby9.0mb.Incontrast,gasolineandfueloilholdingsroseby1.0mband0.3mb,respectively.
Meanwhile,Germanenduserheatingoilstocksfellby3percentagepointsto54%fillatendJanuary.
mb

OECD Europe Crude Oil Stocks

mb
622

362

602

342

582
562

322

542

302
282
Jan

OECD Europe Total Products Stocks

522
Mar May
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

502
Jan

Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2007-2011
2012

Mar May
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2007-2011
2012

February preliminary data from Euroilstock point to a seasonal 3.9 mb stock draw, compared with a
fiveyearaverage10.9mbfallintheEU15andNorway.Bothcrudeoilandproductinventoriesfellby
0.7mband3.3mbrespectively.Middledistillateholdingsledthedecrease,decliningby2.5mb.Aswas
thecaseinJanuary,replenishmentofgovernmentagencystocksmayhavecontributedtothisdecrease,
with Frances agency purchasing 2.3mb of diesel. A 0.3mb decrease in industry gasoline stocks and a
1.4mbdeclineinfueloilholdingsalsocontributedtotheoverallproductstockdraws.Inthemeantime,
other products inventories rose by 0.9mb. Refined product stocks held in independent storage in
Northwest Europefell,onsharp drawsingasoline asexportstotheUnitedStatesandothercountries
rose.

OECD Pacific
January commercial oil inventories in the Pacific declined by 5.0mb to 385mb in contrast with the
fiveyearaverageincreaseof9.5mb.Thedeficitofinventoriesversusthefiveyearaveragewidenedto
27.5mb from 13.1mb in December, with oil stocks falling below the fiveyear range. Crude holdings
decreased counterseasonally by 7.6mb to 148mb, remaining under the fiveyear range for a fourth
consecutivemonth.Inthemeantime,productstocksremainedvirtuallyunchanged,asgainsingasoline,
middledistillateandfueloilstockswereoffsetbyadropinotherproductsholdings.However,products
stocks remain below their fiveyear range. Gasoline, middle distillate, and fuel oil holdings rose by
2.8mb,1.5mband0.7mb,respectivelywhileotherproductsstocksfellby4.9mb.
mb

OECD Pacific Crude Oil Stocks

mb

OECD Pacific Total Products Stocks

204

184

194

174

184
164
174
154
144
Jan

30

164

Mar May
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2007-2011
2012

154
Jan

Mar May
Jul
Range 2007-2011
2011

Sep Nov
Jan
Avg 2007-2011
2012

14M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

OECD S TOCKS

Japaneseindustryinventoriesdeclinedseasonallyby8.5mbinFebruary,accordingtoweeklydatafrom
the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ). Crude oil stocks fell by 0.3mb, likely on lower crude oil
imports.Productholdingsdecreasedby7.3mb,ledbyafallinkeroseneinventories.Anextremelycold
winterdrovekerosenestocksdownby3.2mb,tobelowthefiveyearrange.Theyhavebeenreducedby
more than 50% since November last year, dissipating the gradual stock build observed since the
catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Gasoline and fuel oil inventories fell by 1.2 mb
respectively,whileotherproductsstocksedgedupby0.7mb.

mb

mb
35

Japan Total Industry Stocks


(including naphtha)

280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
Jan

Japan Weekly Kerosene Stocks

30
25
20
15
10
Source: PAJ

Apr

Jul

Range 2007-11
2011

Source: PAJ

5
Jan

Oct
5-yr Average
2012

Apr
Jul
Range 2007-11
2011

Oct
5-yr Average
2012

Recent Developments in Singapore and China Stocks


According to China Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals (OGP), Chinese commercial oil inventories surged in
Januarybyanequivalentof19.6mb(dataarereportedintermsofpercentagestockchange).Despitean
increaseincrudeoilthroughput,higherimportsandstrongdomesticoutputdrovecrudeoilholdingsup
by 1.2% (2.5mb), putting an end to a threemonth decline. Product inventories skyrocketed by 13.1%
(17.1mb),ledbyasharpincreaseindieselstocks.Inthemidst ofhigherrefinerythroughputboosting
thelevelsofrefinedproductstocksingeneral,twolongholidays(theNewYearholidayandtheSpring
Festivalholiday)thatlasted10daysinJanuaryhadanimpactonproductdemandgasolinedemandrose
while diesel demand slumped. Gasoline inventories fell by 4.0% (2.2mb) while diesel and kerosene
inventoriesincreasedby29.1%(18.8mb)and4.7%(0.5mb),respectively.

mb
20

China Monthly Oil Stock Change*


mb

15
10
5
0
(5)
(10) So urce: China Oil, Gas and P etro chemicals
Jul 11
Sep 11
Nov 11
Jan 12
Crude

Gasoline

Gasoil

Kerosene

*Since A ugust 2010, COGP o nly repo rts percentage sto ck change

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
Jan

Singapore Weekly Total Product


Stocks

Source: International Enterprise

Apr

Jul

Oct

R a nge 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 11

5 - yr A v e ra ge

2 0 11

2 0 12

Singapore onshore inventories surged by 6.0mb to 44.6mb in February, well above the fiveyear
averageof37.6mb.Fueloilstocksroseby2.3mbforasecondconsecutivemonth.Fueloilholdingshave
gained6.4mbsincetheirtwoandahalfyearlowinthemiddleofJanuary,duetorecordhighWestern
exports.Middledistillateinventoriesalsoincreasedby2.1mbonweakdemand.Demandforgasoiland
jet fuel in Asia remained subdued, while the arbitrage to send products to Europe remained closed.
Gasoline holdings rose by 1.6mb, to above the fiveyear range, as Malaysia and India, among others,
increasedgasolineexportstoSingapore.

14M ARCH 2012

31

OECD S TOCKS

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Regional OECD End-of-Month Industry Stocks


(in days of forward demand and millions barrels of total oil)
Days1
Days

Million Barrels

60

mb
1,450

58

1,400

56

1,350

North America

54

North America

1,300

52

1,250

50
48

1,200

46

1,150

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Range 2007-2011
2011

Days
72

Sep

Nov

Jan

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Range 2007-2011
2011

Avg 2007-2011
2012

mb
1,020

Europe

70

1,000

68

980

66

960

64

940

62

920

60

900

58

Sep

Nov

Jan

Avg 2007-2011
2012

Europe

880

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Range 2007-2011
2011

Days
58

Sep

Nov

Jan

Jan

Avg 2007-2011
2012

440

52

420

50

400

48
46

380

44

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Avg 2007-2011
2012

Pacific

360
Mar

May

Jul

Range 2007-2011
2011

Days
62

Sep

Nov

Jan

Jan

Avg 2007-2011
2012

Mar

May

Jul

Range 2007-2011
2011

mb
2,850

OECD Total Oil

Sep

Nov

Jan

Avg 2007-2011
2012

OECD Total Oil

2,800

60

2,750

58

2,700

56

2,650

54

2,600

52

2,550
2,500

50
Jan

May

mb
460

Pacific

56
54

Jan

Mar

Range 2007-2011
2011

Mar

May

Range 2007-2011
2011

Jul

Sep

Nov

Avg 2007-2011
2012

Jan

Jan

Mar

May

Range 2007-2011
2011

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Avg 2007-2011
2012

1 Days of forward demand are based on average demand over the next three months

32

14M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

P RICES

PRICES

Summary
Oil futures prices moved higher in tandem with escalating supply side risks to the market in
February and early March. Geopolitical problems in Syria, South Sudan and Yemen have led to
protractedsupplydisruptionsfromthosecountries,removingfromthemarketmorethan600kb/d
in1Qthisyear.TheprospectofadditionalproductionoutagesrelatingtoIranhaveaddedyetmore
uncertaintyforthesupplyoutlookinthecomingmonths.FuturespricesforBrentwerelasttrading
around$125/bblandWTIat$106/bbl.

AstensionsintheMiddleEastspurredpricestoaninemonthpeak,openinterestinoilderivatives
increasedinFebruary,despitelingeringuncertaintiesregardingthehealthoftheglobaleconomy.
Money managers increased their bets on rising oil prices, to the highest levels observed since
May2011,triggeredbygrowingconcernsoverIransnuclearprogramme.

Markets for distillates and fuel oils softened with the end of peak winter season and as earlier
tightness on the product supply side eased. Crack spreads fell for middle distillates and fuel oils in
Februaryonweakerfundamentals,withproductpriceslaggingthesharpincreaseincrudemarkets.In
contrast,gasolinecrackspreadscontinuedtoshowstrength,althoughnarrowingfrom theelevated
levelsseeninearlyFebruary.

DespitebuoyantdemandforMiddleEasterncrudesinAsia,notablyfromChina,vesseloversupply
againweighedheavily,withfreightratesonthebenchmarkMiddleEastGulfJapanroutetrading
flat from mid February onwards. Although rates remain better than the dire levels seen in 3Q11,
surgingbunkerpriceshavecappedearnings.

$/bbl

Crude Futures
Front Month Close

NYMEX WTI & ICE Brent


Forward Price Curves

$/bbl

130

128

9March2012

Source: ICE, NYMEX

120

124

110

120

100

116

90

112

80

108

70
Feb 11

104
May 11
Aug 11
NYMEX WTI

Nov 11
Feb 12
ICE Brent

Source: ICE, NYMEX

M1 2

NYMEX WTI

9 10 11 12
ICE Brent

Market Overview
February oil futures prices moved higher in tandem with escalating supply side risks to the market.
Formidable geopolitical problems in Syria, South Sudan and Yemen have led to protracted supply
disruptionsfromthosecountries,removingjustover600kb/dfromthemarketonaveragein1Q.Total
nonOPEC unplanned outages, which include the North Sea, equal around 750 kb/d for 1Q12. The
prospectofadditionalsupplylossesrelatingtothecrisiswithOPECssecondlargestproducer,Iran,have
addedyetmoreuncertaintyforthesupplyoutlookincomingmonths.

Oil futures at writing were trading near the 2011 highs posted at the onset of the Libyan crisis in late
February,withBrentpricesaround$125/bblandWTIabout$106/bbl.Monthonmonth,Brentfutures
rose by $7.61/bbl, to an average $119.06/bbl in February, gaining a further $6/bbl in earlyMarch.

14 M ARCH 2012

33

P RICES

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

USWTI saw smaller increases over the same period, largely due to rising crude oil stock levels at the
Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for the NYMEX contract, up just under $2/bbl for the month, to an
average$102.26/bblinFebruary.

Dated Brent

US$
150

Euro
120

160

80

125

NWE Gasoil 0.1% (fob)

US$
180

Euro
100

100

140
100

60

120

75

40

100

80
60
40

80
20

50
25
Jan08

Data source: Platts analysis

40
Jan08

0
Jan09
Jan10
US$/Bbl

20

60

Data source: Platts analysis

Jan11
Jan12
Euro/Bbl

Jan09
Jan10
US$/Bbl

Jan11
Jan12
Euro/Bbl

Indeed, crude oil prices posted record highs in euro denominated terms, eclipsing the peak reached
during the 2008 price spike. Priced in euros, Brent crude hit a peak of 94.65/bbl in the first week of
March, the highest level since mid2008. Comparatively, since the first week of January 2009 Brent
priced in euros have doubled, while prices in dollars moved up by nearly 88%. Spot European gasoil
prices during the same period more than doubled in euro terms while in dollars they were higher by
almost89%.

Given the existing major debt issues facing beleaguered euro zone economies, the latest jump in oil
pricesaddsunwelcomeinflationaryandbalanceofpaymentscostswithimportsofdollardenominated
oil.Sustainedhigherpricesriskfurtherunderminingthepaceofglobaleconomicrecovery,bothdirectly
and indirectly curbing oil demand growth. Global oil demand growth is largely left unchanged in this
monthsOMR,at800kb/dfor2012,althoughfurthermacroeconomicimpactsderivingfromsustained
higheroilpricesarealsopossible.

NYMEX WTI vs US Dollar Index

US$/bbl
120
110

US$/bbl
120

Index
70

110
75

100
90

1300

90
1200

80

80

85

60
1000
Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12

90
Jan 11

Jul 11

Jan 12

N Y M E X WT I
US D o lla r Inde x ( inv e rs e d R H S )

1100

70

70

1400

100

80

Jul 10

Index
1500

So urce: NYM EX

So urce: ICE, NYM EX

60
Jan 10

NYMEX WTI vs S&P 500

NYM EX WTI

S&P 500 (RHS)

Thatsaid,itissupplysideissuesthatarecurrentlydominatingmarketsentiment.Geopoliticalissuesin
SouthSudan,SyriaandYemencombinedwithweatherrelatedandtechnicalproblemsintheNorthSea
andCanadahaveknockedaround750kb/doutofthemarketsofarin2012.

Inaddition,OECDcrudeoilinventoriesarestillhoveringatthebottomofthefiveyearaveragedespite
thehighestlevelsofOPECproductioninmorethanthreeyears.Indeed,latestdatashowOECDEurope
andPacificstocksarewellbelowthefiveyearrange.SeveralOPECproducershaveraisedsuppliesinthe
faceofhigherprices.InFebruary,SaudiArabiasoutputhitthe10mb/dmark,thehighestlevelinthree
decades,whileLibyanproductionreachedasignificant1.3mb/d,just300kb/dbelowlevelsregistered
priortolastyearscivilwar.

34

14 M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

P RICES

New international sanctions have so far had a minimal impact on actual Iranian crude supplies to the
market, with volumes in the JanuaryFebruary period off only about 75 kb/d from end2011 levels.
However, even before additional sanctions were announced in January, Iranian supplies were around
150200kb/d lower since last October/November, largely due to payment issues with customers.
Nonetheless,expectationsthatexportscouldplummetbybetween800kb/dand1mb/dinthesecond
half of the year have injected a high degree of uncertainty over the 2012 supply outlook. Though still
considered unlikely at this stage, the threat of disruptions
Crude Futures
to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be $/bbl
Forward Spreads
discountedentirely.
10
8 Source: ICE, NYMEX

6
Brents backwardation widened in February but eased
4
againinearlyMarchastensionsoverIranratchetedanotch
2
lower. The Brent M1M12 backwardation was running at
0
$7.45/bblinearlyMarch,comparedwitharound$6/bblin
-2
Februaryand$3.65/bblinJanuary.
-4
-6

Feb 11
May 11
Aug 11
Nov 11
Feb 12
The WTI M1M12 contract briefly moved into
WTI M1-M12
Brent M1-M12
backwardation in early March, when prices surged over
unfoundedrumoursaboutasupplydisruptioninSaudiArabia,beforeeasingagainundertheweightof
ample supplies in the US. The WTI M1M12 spread was averaging about $0.50/bbl in early March,
comparedwithamonthlyaverageof$1.85/bblinFebruaryand$0.18/bblinJanuary.
Prompt Month Oil Futures Prices
(monthly and weekly averages, $/bbl)

Dec
NYMEX
Light Sweet Crude Oil
98.58
RBOB
109.14
No.2 Heating Oil
122.13
No.2 Heating Oil ($/mmbtu)
20.97
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
3.25
ICE
Brent
107.72
Gasoil
124.05
Prompt Month Differentials
NYMEX WTI - ICE Brent
-9.15
NYMEX No.2 Heating Oil - WTI
23.56
NYMEX RBOB - WTI
10.57
NYMEX 3-2-1 Crack (RBOB)
14.90
NYMEX No.2 - Natural Gas ($/mmbtu 17.72
ICE Gasoil - ICE Brent
16.32
Source: ICE, NYMEX

Jan

100.32
117.45
127.94
21.96
2.71

Feb

Feb-Jan
% Week Commencing:
Avg Chg Chg 06 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb

27 Feb 05 Mar

102.26
126.41
134.17
23.03
2.53

1.94
8.96
6.23
1.07
-0.18

1.9
7.1
4.6
4.6
-7.2

98.51
124.47
133.91
22.99
2.48

101.80 107.43
126.54 130.46
133.69 137.79
22.95
23.65
2.53
2.61

107.54 106.31
133.01 137.94
135.87 135.73
23.33 23.30
2.51
2.32

111.45 119.06
128.54 134.66

7.61
6.11

6.4
4.5

117.05
133.87

118.94 122.74
134.27 137.65

123.65 124.26
137.04 137.71

-18.54
35.40
25.97
29.11
20.50
16.82

-17.14
31.89
24.74
27.12
20.42
15.33

-16.10
28.33
25.47
26.42
20.82
13.39

-11.13
27.62
17.13
20.63
19.26
17.09

-16.80
31.91
24.14
26.73
20.51
15.60

-5.66
4.28
7.01
6.10
1.25
-1.50

-15.31
30.36
23.03
25.47
21.04
14.91

-17.95
29.42
31.63
30.89
20.98
13.44

Futures Markets
Activity Levels
TheratioofBrentfuturesinLondonICEtoNewYorkandLondonWTIoildeclinedto54.4%intheweek
ending 6 March from a historically high of 57.8% observed in January, triggered by a relatively large
increase especially in NYMEX WTI open interest. Meanwhile, ICE WTI open interest gained some
momentumafterdecliningforsixstraightmonthsstartinginOctober.ThedeclineintheratioofBrentto
WTIopeninterestissharperwhen ICEWTIcontractsareexcluded. TheratioofICEBrenttoCMEWTI
openinterestdeclinedto67.7%fromitspeakof73.3%registeredon24January2012.

14 M ARCH 2012

35

P RICES

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

As tensions in the Middle East raised prices to a nine


Percentage of Brent to WTI Open Interest
month peak, open interest in oil derivatives increased in %
February, despite lingering uncertainties regarding the 80
healthoftheglobaleconomy.OpeninterestinNewYork
CME WTI futures and options contracts increased by 60
11.4% from 31 January 2012 to 6 March 2012 to a
fourmonth high of 2.58 million contracts. Meanwhile, 40
Source: ICE, CFTC
openinterestinfuturesonlycontractsincreasedby13.2%
duringthesameperiod,from1.4milliontoasevenmonth 20
Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12
highof1.58million.Overthesameperiod,openinterest
in London ICE WTI contracts increased to 0.39 million
Brent/WTI (ICE+CME)
Brent/WTI (CME)
and0.45millioncontractsinfuturesonlyandcombined
contracts, respectively. Meanwhile, open interest in ICE Brent contracts also tested new records in
February with 1.07 and 1.25 million contracts after peaking at its highest level of 1.0 and 1.12million
contractsinJanuaryinfuturesonlyandcombinedcontracts,respectively.

AmidmountingconcernaboutsupplyoutagesaswellassanctionsonIranianoilsupplyandfearsabout
the Strait of Hormuz, money managers increased their bets on rising WTI crude oil prices by
55471contracts to reach 228 392 contracts in February, the highest since May 2011. However, in the
weekending6March2012,theyreducedtheirlongpositionby18857to209535contractsinresponse
to the fall in WTI prices from $106.55/bbl to $104.7/bbl, triggered by the announcement of renewed
talksbetweenIranandWesternpowersoverIransnuclearprogramme.Overthesameperiod,money
managers also increased their bets on rising Brent prices by 51.7%, from 84 417 to 128 094 futures
contracts,thehighestlevelsinceICEFuturesEuropestartedpublishinginformationontradingofBrent
futureslastJuly.

'000
Contracts

NYMEX WTI Mth1


Open Interest

$/bbl

1,600

120

1,500

100

1,400

'000
Contracts

Net Positions in WTI Futures


Source: CFTC, NYMEX

300

$/bbl
110
105

100

100

80

1,300
60

1,200

40

1,100

Source: CFTC, NYMEX

1,000
20
Jan 09Jul 09 Jan 10Jul 10 Jan 11Jul 11 Jan 12
Open Interest

NYMEX WTI Mth1

95

-100

90
-300

85
10 Jan

24 Jan

Producers
Money Managers
Non-Reportables

07 Feb

21 Feb

06 Mar

Swap Dealers
Other Reportables
NYMEX WTI

Producers reduced their net futures short positions from 85660 to 74848 contracts from
31January2012to6March2012;theyheld20.88%oftheshortand16.16%ofthelongcontractsinCME
WTIfuturesonlycontracts.Swapdealers,whoaccountedfor22.69%and35.23%oftheopenintereston
thelongsideandshortside,respectively,increasedtheirnetshortpositionby71.7%tohold198772net
shortinFebruary.ProducerstradingactivityintheLondonWTIcontractsfollowedanoppositepattern
toCMEWTIcontracts.ProducersintheLondonICEWTIcontractsreducedtheirnetlongpositionsfrom
20199 to 12459 contracts over the same period. Swap dealers also reduced their net short positions
duringthesameperiodfrom47011to30492contracts.

Meanwhile,NYMEXRBOBfuturesandcombinedopeninterestincreasedbymorethan14.5%overthe
same period. Open interest in NYMEX heating oil futures contracts increased by almost 4.1% to
286118contracts while open interest in natural gas markets increased by 1.1% to reach
1.22millioncontracts.

36

14 M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

P RICES

IndexinvestorslongexposureincommoditiesinJanuary2012increasedby$17.1billion.However,they
cut$6.4billionfromWTILightSweetCrudeOil,bothonandofffuturescontractsinJanuary.Thenumber
oflongfuturesequivalentcontractsdippedto538000,thelowestsinceDecemberof2008,equivalent
to$53.2billioninnotionalvalue.

Positions on NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) Futures Contracts


Thousand Contracts
06 Marc h 2012

Producers' Positions
Swap Dealers' Positions
Money Managers' Positions
Others' Positions
Non-Reportable Positions
Open Interest
Source: CFTC

Long

Short

256.0
125.0
255.3
141.5
97.2

330.9
323.8
45.7
114.1
60.5

Net

-74.8
-198.8
209.5
27.4
36.7
1584.8

Long/Short

Short
Short
Long
Long
Long

Net from Prev.

Net Vs Last

Week

Month

9.9
8.1
-18.9
1.3
-0.3
67.0

10.8
-83.0
36.6
29.6
5.9
185.0

Market Regulation
AsmentionedintheOMRof10February,theEuropeanCouncilandParliamentreachedanagreement
on the final draft of the proposed European Markets Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR), which aims to
increase transparency and reduce risk in the overthecounter derivatives markets and establishes
commonrulesforCentralCounterpartyClearingHouses(CCPs)andtraderepositories(TRs).Theagreed
EMIRcallsforclearingofallOTCderivativesthroughCCPs.Theruleextendsreportingrequirementsnot
onlytoOTC derivatives,butalsotootherderivativescontracts. Theauthoritytoidentify the contracts
subjecttoaclearingobligationisdelegatedtotheEuropeanSecuritiesandMarketsAuthority(ESMA).
Furthermore, the final version gives public authorities the right to authorise CCP. However, in case of
disputesbetweenpublicauthoritiesovertheauthorisationofCCPs,ESMAcanplayabindingnegotiator
roleormaytakeafinaldecisionontheauthorisationofaCCPifaskedbypublicauthorities.Also,CCPs
from third countries will be recognised in the European Union if the domestic legal regime has an
effectiveequivalentsystemfortheauthorisationofCCPs.ThefinaldraftofEMIRisstillpendingapproval
from the European Parliament and Council. It is expected to be approved by the European Parliament
duringits1215Marchsession,andthentheCouncilwillneedtoformallyadopttherules.Onceadopted
bytheCouncil,itwillbepublishedintheOfficialJournalandtheruleswillenterintoforce20daysafter
thepublication.Thenewrulesareexpectedtobeeffectivebytheendof2012.

On 23 February 2012, the US CFTC reproposed its rule for determining the appropriate block size for
differentassetclasses.AsreportedintheJanuaryOMR,theruleonappropriateblocksizewasremoved
fromthefinalruleonrealtimereportingofswaptradesinDecember.Severalmarketparticipantshad
asked the CFTC to reconsider its rule on timing of public dissemination of details of large trades since
theyneedtimetohedgeorlayoffriskincurredwiththeselargetradesbeforetheyarereportedtotrade
repositories. The new rule calls for different block sizes for different asset classes. The Commission
proposed to adopt a twoperiod approach to determine the appropriate block size for different asset
classes.Intheinitialperiod,whichwouldlastforaminimumofoneyear,theappropriatesizeissetby
theCommission.Forexample,forNYMEXWTIandICEBrentoilswaps,theinitialappropriateminimum
blocksizeissetat100000barrels.Inthepostinitialperiod,theCommission,basedondatacollectedby
traderepositories,willestablishtheappropriateminimumblocksizeusinga75percentnotionalamount
calculationtoestablishandupdatethesesizesinnolessthanoneyear.

On27February2012,afederalcourtdeclinedISDAandSIFAMsrequestagainsttheimplementationof
the CFTCs position limit rule. However, the court expressed concern that the Commission might have
overreached itsmandate bypreemptivelysettingapositionlimitoncommodityderivativescontracts,

14 M ARCH 2012

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without sufficient costbenefit analysis. The court also declared its intention to rule whether to halt
temporarilytheimplementationofthepositionlimitrule.Thecourt,however,mightnotneedtoruleon
thepositionlimituntilJune,sincetheregulators(CFTCandSEC)failedtoreachanagreementonthefinal
rule, which defines what a swap is. The position limit rule will be effective sixty days after the term
swapisdefinedbytheCommission.Theearliestestimateforthefinalruleonthedefinitionofswap
isforearlyApril,whichimpliesthatthepositionlimitwillnotbeeffectiveuntilJune,evenifthefederal
courtdidnotprovideatemporaryinjunctiontostopimplementation.

TheUSCFTCdelayeditsvoteonthefinalruledefiningswapdealerandmajorswapparticipants,which
will eventually determine which entities face mandatory capital and margin requirements as well as
positionlimits.ThevotehadbeendelayedtwicebytheCommissionon23Februaryand9Marchbutthe
CFTCmaybringthefinalruleforvotinginits20Marchmeeting.SomereportssuggestthattheCFTCmay
increase the threshold that determines which market participants are deemed swap dealers from the
originallyproposedlevelof$100millionin2010to$3billion,basedonthenotionalvalueofacompanys
annualswapstrade.Theprospectiveincreaseinthresholdwillcertainlyexemptsomeenergycompanies,
whichhavelongclaimedthattheiruseofswapsistoreduceriskstiedtooilandnaturalgasassets,from
beingclassifiedasswapdealers.

The International Organisation of Securities and Commissions (IOSCO) issued a consultation paper on
functioningandoversightofoilpricereportingagencies(PRAs).ThisfollowsthemandatefromtheG20
Cannes Summit Declaration in November 2011 for IOSCO, in collaboration with the IEF, the IEA and
OPEC,topreparerecommendationstoimprovetheirfunctioningandoversighttoourFinanceMinisters
bymid2012.The consultationpaper askedstakeholdersviewsontherole andoperationofoilprice
reporting agencies, including the impact of PRAs on physical and paper oil markets, the effects of
differentmethodologiesusedbydifferentPRAsonmarketprices,theimpactofcurrentfunctionsofthe
PRAs on price transparency in the physical and paper oil markets, the current governance of PRAs
without any independent third party oversight, and the need for public oversight of PRAs. IOSCO has
requestedresponsesby30March2012.Basedonstakeholderresponses,IOSCOwillthenproposeaset
ofrecommendations,incollaborationwiththeIEA,IEFandOPEC,tobesubmittedto theG20Finance
MinistersmeetinginJune2012inMexico.

High Frequency Traders: Flash Crashers or Liquidity Providers?


On6May2010,majorAmericanstockindicesandstockindexfuturesnosedivedbymorethanfivepercent
beforesharplyrecoveringinlessthan30minutes.Sincethatinfamousflashcrash,highfrequencytraders
(HFTs)havedrawntheattentionofregulators,exchangesandmarketparticipants,despitethefactthatthe
crashwasnottriggereddirectlybyHFTs,accordingtoanofficialjointreportreleasedbytheUSCFTCand
SEC. Nonetheless, fragmentation of trading venues and the establishment of the US Regulation National
Market System and the European Unions Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) in 2007
requiringbrokeragestofindthebestexecutionforcustomers,haveledtotheexplosivegrowthofHFTs.
Somestudiessuggestthatafewhighfrequencytrading(HFT)firmsnowaccountformorethan70and60
percentofoveralltradingvolumeonUSequitiesandfuturesmarkets,respectively.HFTsshareinEuropean
marketstradingvolumeisestimatedtobesmallerthanthatofinUStrading;however,theyhavecontinued
torampuptheiractivitiesonexchangesonbothsidesoftheAtlantic.
High Frequency Trading in Energy Markets
According to CMEs algorithmic trading study (HFT is a subset of algorithmic trading) published on
15July2010,35%ofcrudeoilfuturetradingand71%ofmessagetrafficinthefirstquarterof2010came
fromalgorithmictraders.Comparedtootherassetclasses,algorithmictradersshareinthevolumeoftrade
is still low, but in terms of message traffic, crude oil comes second after EuroFX futures. The CME report
further suggests that increased algorithmic trading activity correlated with narrower bid/ask spreads,
increased market depth and reduced volatility. That is to say, the presence of algorithmic traders
substantiallyimprovedthequalityofmarket.

38

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P RICES

High Frequency Traders: Flash Crashers or Liquidity Providers? (continued)


Although HFTs presence in futures markets has been on the rise, they are present in limited commodity
markets,suchascrudeoilduetoitshigherliquidity.Somemarketparticipantsarguedthatasmoreswaps
activityshiftstoelectronicplatforms,weshouldexpecttoseeHFTsdominateinthesemarkets.However,
HFTs survival depends on the short time delays in trade execution. Therefore, HFTs arrival relies on the
initialliquidityinthemarketplace.Thatistosay,thesurvivalorevenarrivalofHFTsontoswapexecution
facilities (SEFs) solely depends on the success of SEFs and liquidity in these platforms. As noted in the
JanuaryOMR,theOTCmarketisdifferentfromthefuturesmarkets.Instruments(swaps)intheOTCmarkets
cantradeinfrequently,ofteninsignificantsizes.Therefore,wewouldnotexpecttoseeaninfluxoforder
flowsfromHFTstoSEFs.
High Frequency Traders and Their Impacts
RegulatorsonbothsideoftheAtlantic,whileurgingnewcurbsonhighfrequencytrading,arestilldebating
its definition. The Securities and Exchange Commission refers to them as professional traders acting in a
proprietarycapacitythatengageinstrategiesthatgeneratealargenumberoftradesonadailybasis.These
traderscouldbeorganizedinavarietyofways,includingasaproprietarytradingfirm.Othercharacteristics
often attributed to proprietary firms engaged in HFT are: (1) the use of extraordinarily highspeed and
sophisticated computer programs for generating, routing, and executing orders; (2) use of colocation
servicesandindividualdatafeedsofferedbyexchangesandotherstominimizenetworkandothertypesof
latencies; (3) very short timeframes for establishing and liquidating positions; (4) the submission of
numerousordersthatarecancelledshortlyaftersubmission;and(5)endingthetradingdayinasclosetoa
flatpositionaspossible(thatis,notcarryingsignificant,unhedgedpositionsovernight).However,theterm
is still relatively new and there is no consensus yet on the definition of HFT. For example, the US CFTC
announcedinlateJanuary2012thatitisformingasubcommitteethatwouldbetaskedwithdefiningand
identifyingHFTstradingpatternanditspossibleimpactonfutures,swapsandoptionsmarkets.
HFTs use several different strategies to enter the market. Some HFTs can be considered market makers,
wheretheyplacebuyandsellorderscontinuouslythroughoutthetradingdayinordertoearnbidandask
spreads. Some other HFTs can act as arbitrageurs to make profit from price discrepancies in certain assets
trading simultaneously on separate markets. Most studies found that HFTs add substantially to the price
discoveryprocess,aswellaseliminatinganypricedifferentialacrosstradingvenues.Furthermore,itisargued
that the arrival of HFTs and increased lowlatency activity, defined as strategies that respond to market
events in the millisecond environment, substantially improved the quality of markets by adding liquidity,
loweringthetradingcosts(narrowingbidandaskspread),reducingshorttermvolatilityandincreasingthe
limitorderbookdepthduringnormalandheighteneduncertaintimes.
However,somestudiessuggestedthatwithoutmandatoryobligationstoprovideliquidity,HFTsmayhave
exacerbated volatility by withdrawing liquidity from the market, especially during severe market episodes
suchasthoseexperiencedduringtheflashcrash.OthersalsoquestiontheliquidityprovidedbyHFTs.Since
more than 95% of orders placed by the HFTs are cancelled immediately, some market participants are
sceptical that high frequency trading provides liquidity to the markets. Some argue that HFTs provide
liquiditywhenitisnotneeded.OthersfurtherarguedthatHFTsexhibittradingpatternsinconsistentwith
the traditional definition of market making, in the sense that they aggressively trade in the direction of a
pricechangethatdoesnotresultininventoryaccumulation.
Ashighfrequencytradingisbecomingincreasinglypopular,concernsovertradingpracticesandtheirimpact
onthequalityandvolatilityofmarketshavebeenraisedbysomeregulatorsandexchanges.Forexample,
USCFTC Commissioner Chilton urges creating a registration category for highfrequency trading firms and
imposingnewrestrictionsontheirtradingpracticesifnecessary.Inthemeantime,someexchangesintheUS
and Europe already took some steps by introducing penalties on highfrequency traders who place and
cancel large number of bids and offers within milliseconds. Some regulators refer to such practices as
parasitic trading. Others however, see HFT simply as a logical and inevitable upshot of both increases in
riskhedgingappetiteandadvancesininformationtechnology.

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Spot Crude Oil Prices


Our usual summary tables of average spot crude oil and products prices, and
Table 13, in the subscriber edition of this report have been removed pending
further licensing discussions with the data provider.

SpotcrudeoilpricesmatchedtheupwardmovesinfuturesmarketsinFebruaryandearlyMarch.With
existing supply disruptions having the biggest impact on European and Asian markets, prices for Brent
andDubaicrudespostedthelargestincreasesoverthepastsixweeks.SpotpricesforDatedBrentwere
up in February by just under $9/bbl, to an average $119.50/bbl, while Dubai rose about $6.35/bbl to
$116.15/bbllastmonth.Bycontrast,USWTIrosebyasmaller$2/bbltoaround$102.30/bblonaverage
inFebruary,withhigherstocklevelsatCushing,Oklahomatemperingpricegains.

$/bbl
130

Benchmark Crude Prices

$/bbl

WTI vs Dated Brent Differential

120

-5

110

-10

100

-15

90

-20
-25

80
Data source: Platts analysis

70
Feb 11

-30
Data source: Platts analysis

May 11

WTI Cushing

Aug 11

Nov 11

-35
Feb 11

Feb 12

Dated Brent

Dubai

May 11

Aug 11

Nov 11

Feb 12

The price disconnect between the US benchmark crude and global markets saw the price spread
between the two benchmark crudes widen to the steepest levels in six months. The spot WTIDated
Brent differential was averaging around $19.35/bbl in the first decade of March, compared with an
average $17.20/bbl in February and $10.10/bbl in January. The steeper WTI/Brent differential follows
thesurgeincrudeoilinventoriesattheCushing,Oklahomastoragedepot.Cushingstocksjumpedtothe
highestlevel sincelastJune,followingapurgeoftheSeawaypipelineaheadofitsplannedreversalas
wellasreducedrefineryrunsintheregion.
$/bbl
$/bbl
1

Urals
Differentials (NWE / Med) vs Brent

5
4

0
-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

Data source: Platts analysis

Data source: Platts analysis

-6
Feb 11

Nigeria
Differentials to Dated Brent

May 11 Aug 11
Urals (NWE)

Nov 11 Feb 12
Urals (Med)

-1
Feb 11 May 11
Aug 11
Brass River-DB
Forcados-DB

Nov 11
Feb 12
Bonny Light-DB

AlthoughEuropeanrefinerscontinuetosearchforreplacementgradesforheavierIranianbarrels,spot
crude markets are currently fairly wellsupplied, especially with lighter crudes. However, Brent prices
have remained relatively strong given increased demand from Asia, while demand for Urals and light
crudesfromNigeriaeasedonamplesuppliesandweakrefinerdemand.TheBrentpricedifferentialto
distillaterich Nigeria crudes tumbled, with the BrentBonny spread falling to just $0.20/bbl in early
Marchcomparedwith$1.10/bblonaverageinFebruaryandarobust$2.75/bblinJanuary.

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P RICES

TheBrentUralspremiumalsocollapsedinFebruary,inpartduetoweakerfueloilcrackspreads.Urals
wasalsosupportedearlyintheNewYearbyhigherrefinerinterestinthegradesinceitisconsidereda
suitablereplacementforIraniancrudeinEurope.AfterpostinganunusualpremiumtoBrentforseveral
daysattheendofJanuary,UralsintheMediterraneanwastradingata$1.10/bbldiscounttoBrenton
averageinFebruaryandasharp$3.30/bbldiscountbyearlyMarch.

Brentcrude'spremiumtoDubaiwidenedinFebruaryon $/bbl
Brent vs. Dubai
reduced demand for the latter as the northern 14
Data source: Platts analysis
hemispherewinterdrewtoacloseandonamplesupplies 12
of sour grades. The BrentDubai differential widened to 10
around $3.40/bbl in February compared to around 8
6
$0.80/bbl in January. Relatively strong Asian demand, 4
however, is keeping a floor under Middle East crude 2
prices,especiallygiventhelossofheaviercrudesupplies 0
-2
fromSyria,SouthSudan,SudanandYemen.
-4

Feb 11
May 11
Aug 11
Nov 11
Feb 12
ChinahasreportedlyincreasedpurchasesofSaudigrades
Dated Brent - Dubai Mth1
and Russian ESPO crude in recent weeks although there
aresignsthatatleastonelengthypricingdisputethathadseenChinesetermpurchasesofIraniancrude
runningathalf2011s550kb/dhasbeenresolved.NewcontractsrunfromApril,althoughitisthought
likelythatChineserefinerswillcontinuetoseekalternativeMiddleEastsuppliesinanefforttobeseen
to be reducing Iranian offtake in 2012. However, unlike European refiners directly affected by the oil
embargoonIran,includingacutoffininsurancecoveragefortankerliftings,Chinesecompaniesareable
tousethedomesticfleet,whichislessreliantonEuropeaninsurance.

Spot Product Prices


Marketsformiddledistillatesandfueloilsoftenedwiththeendofthepeakwinterdemandseasonand
as earlier tightness on the supplyside eased. Crack spreads fell for middle distillates and fuel oil in
February on weaker fundamentals and as product prices lagged behind the sharp increase in crude
prices. In contrast, gasoline crack spreads continued to show strength, although narrowing from the
elevatedlevelsseeninearlyFebruary.

Gasoline crack spreads rose monthonmonth in all regions. In the US Gulf, gasoline crack spreads
increasedby$1.52/bblversusMars,andinNewYorkHarbourby$6.66/bbltoWTI.Therefineryclosures
both in Europe and the Caribbean supported markets at the beginning of the month. However, crack
spreads narrowed throughout February as low demand readings again came into focus, and with
increasingstocksasbothUSrefineryrunswerehighandthearbitragefromEuropewasopen.

Gasoline
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes

$/bbl

$/bbl
4

60
50
40

Data source: Platts analysis

0
-4

30
20
10
0
-10
Feb 11

Naphtha
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes

-8
-12
-16
May 11 Aug 11
NWE Unl 10ppm
Med Unl 10ppm

14 M ARCH 2012

Nov 11
Feb 12
NYH Unl 93
SP Prem Unl

Data source: Platts analysis

-20
Feb 11

May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11


NWE
SP
Med CIF
ME Gulf

Feb 12

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In Europe, gasoline crack spreads widened by $0.69/bbl versus Brent in Northwest Europe, and by
$1.32/bbltoUralsintheMediterranean.PricesweresupportedbyexportopportunitiestotheUS,Latin
AmericaandtheMiddleEast.Regionalsuppliesweretighteronseasonallylowerregionalrefineryruns,
leading to a large stock draw in independent storage in the ARA region. Meanwhile in Asia, gasoline
crackswerestableoverthemonth,andstrengthenedslightlyby$0.35/bblversusDubai.Robustdemand
continuedtoprovideafloortopricesaswellastheupcomingrefinerymaintenanceseason.

Naphtha prices showed diverging trends in February, with markets weakening in Europe while
strengthening in Asia. Asian crack spreads increased by $3.12/bbl to Dubai monthonmonth, and crack
spreadsmovedintopositiveterritoryatendFebruaryforthefirsttimesinceMay2011.Increaseddemand
fromthepetrochemicalindustryinSouthKoreaandTaiwanhelpedliftcracks,butjustasimportantwere
fearsoftightsuppliesduetorefinerymaintenanceandlowerarbitragevolumesfromEurope.InEurope,
weakdemandandaclosedarbitragetotheEastpressuredcrackspreadslowerinFebruary.

$/bbl

Gasoil/Heating Oil
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes

45
Data source: Platts analysis
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Feb 11
May 11 Aug 11
NWE Gasoil 0.1%
Med Gasoil 0.1%

Nov 11
Feb 12
NYH No. 2
SP Gasoil 0.5%

$/bbl

Diesel Fuel
Cracks to Benchmark Crudes

50
45
Data source: Platts analysis
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Aug 11
Feb 11
May 11
NWE ULSD 10ppm
Med ULSD 10ppm

Nov 11

Feb 12

NYH No. 2
NYH ULSD

Middle distillate crack spreads trended downwards in February, falling in all regions bar New York
Harbour. In Northwest Europe, diesel to Brent fell by $3.42/bbl monthonmonth, to an average
$14.29/bbl.Demandwasgenerallyweakerasthepeakwinterseasoncametoanendandhighflatprices
also limited buying. More important, however, was the large stock build seen in the ARA region in
February, partly caused by an open arbitrage from the US due to high prices. The cold snap at the
beginningofthemonthhadonlyamarginalimpactonthemarketasicingproblemsontheRhinelimited
distributiontotheinlandmarkets.Also,consumerswerereluctanttoreplenishstocksattheendofthe
winterheatingseasongiventhehighpricelevel.IntheMediterranean,crackswerebettersupportedby
strongdemandfromNorthAfrica,andlessinflowsfromRussiaduetohigh domestic demand,limiting
suppliesavailableforexports.

IntheUS,middledistillatemarketsalsosoftenedinFebruary.Heatingoilcrackspreadsfellby$1.82/bbl
toMarsintheUSGulf,whereasthecrackspreadfirmedby$4.09/bblversusWTIinNewYorkHarbour
due to the relative weakness of WTI. Generally, middle distillate markets were supported by arbitrage
possibilities,bothtoLatinAmericaandEurope.However,marketseasedashigherregionalrefineryruns
ledtostocksbuilding.

In Asia, Singapore gasoil crack spreads narrowed by $1.73/bbl to Dubai monthonmonth. High prices
slowed demand, and limited arbitrage opportunities due to weaker European prices left supplies
stranded in the region. Stocks built considerably in Singapore, and were at monthend above the
fiveyearaverageforthefirsttimesincetheendofOctober.

Fuel oil crack spreads also narrowed in February, with HSFO crack spreads falling in a $3.80$5.79/bbl
rangeinEuropeandAsia,whereasLSFOcrackspreadsfellalesser$1.15$2.62/bbl.InAsia,crackspreads
werepressuredlowerasfueloildemandinChinafellaftertheLunarNewYearandinJapanwiththeend

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P RICES

ofthepeakwinterdemandseason,albeitpowersectordemandremainssupportive.Atthesametime,
fueloilstocksswelledaslargearbitragevolumescontinuedtoarrivefromtheWest.

Low-Sulphur Fuel Oil (1%)


Cracks to Benchmark Crudes

$/bbl

20
15 Data source: Platts analysis
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11
NWE LSFO 1%
SP LSWR

$/bbl

High-Sulphur Fuel Oil


Cracks to Benchmark Crudes

5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Nov 11
Feb 12
Med LSFO 1%

Data source: Platts analysis

-25
Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11
NWE HSFO 3.5%
SP HSFO 380 4%

Nov 11
Feb 12
Med HSFO 3.5%

In Europe, fuel oil markets weakened as both demand fell and supplies increased. European utility
demanddeclinedwithwarmerweatherthroughoutFebruary,andinflowsfromtheBlackSeaincreased
inthesecondhalfofthemonthaftericingproblemsreducedexportsfromportsearlierinFebruary.In
addition,alessworkablearbitragetoAsiainthesecondhalfofthemonthkeptvolumesinEuropewith
stocksbuildingasaresult.

Freight
Despite buoyant demand for Middle Eastern crudes in Asia, notably China, vessel oversupply again
weighed heavily, with rates on the benchmark Middle East Gulf Japan route trading flat at close to
$14/mtfrommidFebruaryonwards.Althoughratesremainrelativelyhighcompared tothedire3Q11
performance, surging bunker prices have capped earnings. The West Africa Suezmax market was
relativelyvolatileduringFebruarywithshortperiodsofactivitynotsustainedandampletonnagefurther
limitinggains.Despitethevolatility,byearlyMarchratesstoodatcloseto$17/mt,thesamelevelasa
month earlier. The North Sea Aframax market fared the worst out of the benchmark trades as rates
stayedcloseto$6/mtthroughoutFebruary.Thelowratescombinedwithhighbunkercostsreportedly
pushedearningstotheirlowestlevelinovertwoyears.

US$/m t
28

Daily Crude Tanker Rates

US$/m t
35

24

30

20

25

16

20

12

15

10

Daily Product Tanker Rates

4
0
Jun 10

Data so urce: P latts analysis

Dec 10

8 0 k t N S e a - N W E ur
V LC C M E G ulf - J a p

Jun 11

Dec 11
13 0 k t W A f r- US A C

0
Jun 10

Data so urce: P latts analysis

Dec 10
3 0 K C a rib - US A C
75K M EG-Jap

Jun 11

Dec 11
2 5 K UKC - US A C
3 0 K S E A s ia - J a p

Diverging trends were reported in product tanker markets, with the Atlantic Basin out performing
voyages serving Asian markets. The transatlantic gasoline trade again took off after a wide arbitrage
openeduptomoveproductfromEuropetotheUSAtlanticcoast,consequentlyaschartersscrambledto
findavailablevesselstheratesurgedtoover$30/mtbylateFebruary.However,asisoftenthecaseon
thisvoyagetheratedroppedbackto$26/mtbyearlyMarchasaraftofnewvesselsenteredthemarket
and combined with slowing demand. In the East, all benchmark voyages have been on a steady

14 M ARCH 2012

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downwardtrendsofarthisyearasamixtureofsluggishdemandandvesseloversupplyhaspressured
rates.The Singapore Japanshorthaulroutelanguishedat closeto$16/mtformuchof Februarybut
some upward momentum was generated in earlyMarch as increased demand tightened tonnage. An
earlyMarch upturn was also evident on the long range Middle East Gulf Japan route as increased
demandwassufficienttosoakupexcesstonnage.

Market intelligence suggests that our previous assessments of Iranian floating storage at over 30 mb
weretoohigh.ItisnowwidelyreportedthatIranianfloatingvolumesrecentlysharplydeclinedto8mb,
storedon4vesselsafterNITCwasrequiredtoemploymoreoftheirtankerstomaintaindeliveriesinthe
absence of western vessels currently prohibited from calling at Iranian ports due to insurance issues
connected to US sanctions. As this situation persists, the potential for a future rise in Iranian floating
storageisstronglydiminished.

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R EFINING

REFINING

Summary
Global refinery crude throughputs have been revised slightly lower for 1Q12, on weakerthan
expected nonOECD readings for a number of countries. A counterseasonal increase in US runs in
February,however,providedpartialoffset.Inall,1Q12globalrunsareestimatedtopostannualgains
of180kb/d,toaverage74.9mb/d,or35kb/dlessthanpreviouslyforecast.

FinaldataforDecemberforanumberofnonOECDcountriesledto4Q11globalrefinerycruderun
estimates being adjusted lower by 300 kb/d, to 74.6 mb/d, or 120 kb/d below yearearlier levels.
Annualgrowthisexpectedtoresumein1Q12and 2Q12,withglobalcrude throughputsforecastto
rise180kb/dand610kb/d,respectively,toaverage74.9mb/dand74.5mb/d.

OECD refinery runs fell seasonally by 220 kb/d in January, to 36.8mb/d on average. The start of
seasonalmaintenanceintheUSandEurope,andtheclosureofcapacityinEuropebroughtrunslower
in these regions, while Pacific runs inched higher on stronger Japanese throughputs. While
preliminarydatashowUSrunsrisingcounterseasonallyinFebruary,afterstrongmarginsinJanuary
andamidrelativelylightturnarounds,throughputsareexpectedtofallseasonallyincomingmonths.

Refinery margins plummeted in February, and reached negative territory for most benchmarks
surveyed, after a temporary respite in January. The reported closure of Atlantic Basin capacity had
raisedmarginsearlierintheyear.Productpricesthenfailedtokeepupwithcrudeoilpriceincreases
through February, and further downward pressure on margins came from news of the return to
operationofcapacity(Petroplus)inEurope.MarginsontheUSWestCoastfaredbetter,afterafire
andshutdownofBPsCherryPointplantinFebruary.

mb/d
77

Global Refining

mb/d

Crude Throughput

Annual growth

3.5

76

2.5

75

1.5

74

0.5

73

-0.5

72

-1.5

71
Jan

Global Throughputs vs. Demand

-2.5
Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.

Jul

-3.5

Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.

1Q08

1Q09

Crude Runs

1Q10

1Q11

1Q12

Oil Product Demand

Global Refining Overview


Global refinery crude throughputs have been revised down by 35 kb/d for 1Q12 following weaker
readingsforanumberofnonOECDcountriesforDecemberandJanuary.Infact,Decemberglobalcrude
runs were a sizeable 0.6 mb/d weaker than forecast, on lower run estimates for several countries,
includingVenezuela,Syria,SaudiArabia,SouthAfricaandAlgeria.Asaresult,globalrunscontractedby
anestimated1.2mb/dannuallyforthemonth,alevelofdeclinelastseeninOctober2009.

While January estimates have also been reduced, based on the weaker December readings and some
additional outage information, runs are expected to return to yearago levels before rebounding from
Marchonwards.GrowthisseencomingfromChina,India,Russia,andmostrecently,theUS.US50crude
intake in February was more than 1 mb/d above yearearlier levels. Improved US Gulf Coast refinery

14M ARCH 2012

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R EFINING

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

margins in January, and a lighterthannormal maintenance schedule, helped runs rise


counterseasonallyinFebruary.Withswellingproductinventoriesandasharpdeteriorationofmargins
throughFebruaryandintoMarch,runstherearealsolikelytodeclineincomingweeks.

Infact,refinerymarginsplummetedformostbenchmarkssurveyedinFebruary,afteratemporaryrespite
in January. Margins were lifted earlier in the year, by the closure of capacity in the Atlantic Basin and
concernsoverproductsupplies.NewsofthereturntooperationofcapacityinEurope(Petroplus)brought
marginssharplyloweragaininFebruary,andmostbenchmarkswerenegativeinearlyMarch.Marginson
theUSWestCoastfaredbetter,followingafireandshutdownofBPsCherryPointplantinFebruary.
Selected Refining Margins in Major Refining Centres
($ /bbl)

Monthly Average

NW Europe

Jan 12

Feb 12

Brent (Cracking)
Urals (Cracking)

-0.22
0.34

3.01
3.95

1.48
2.20

Brent (Hydroskimming)

-1.93

0.87

-1.39

Urals (Hydroskimming)

-4.51

-0.87

-4.16

-1.23
-1.38
-4.11
-6.70

2.21
2.16
-1.31
-3.43

-6.30
-1.65
-3.70
-2.02
-8.02

Mediterranean Es Sider (Cracking)


Urals (Cracking)
Es Sider (Hydroskimming)
Urals (Hydroskimming)
US Gulf Coast

Change

Dec 11

Brent (Cracking)
LLS (Cracking)
Mars (Cracking)
Mars (Coking)
Maya (Coking)

US West Coast ANS (Cracking)


Kern (Cracking)
Oman (Cracking)
Kern (Coking)

Average for w eek ending:


10 Feb

17 Feb

24 Feb

02 Mar

09 Mar

-1.53
-1.75

2.06
2.67

0.90
1.72

0.89
1.61

-0.31
1.47

-0.80
2.04

-2.26

-0.34

-2.05

-2.31

-3.60

-4.00

-3.30

-2.96

-4.70

-5.38

-5.69

-5.18

1.41
0.74
-2.77
-6.14

-0.80
-1.42
-1.46
-2.71

1.62
0.84
-2.01
-5.43

1.19
0.42
-3.09
-6.48

1.09
0.29
-3.50
-7.18

0.34
-0.24
-4.11
-7.81

0.58
-0.03
-3.71
-7.73

-1.85
4.75
1.06
2.58
-2.11

-3.96
1.73
-0.25
1.13
1.42

-2.12
-3.02
-1.31
-1.45
3.53

-2.74
4.01
0.98
2.06
2.45

-4.84
-0.27
-1.00
0.10
0.78

-4.70
-0.16
-0.99
0.88
1.56

-6.75
-0.31
-2.44
-0.94
-0.33

-7.17
-0.09
-1.45
0.20
1.22

-1.32
1.00
-5.20
2.22

0.89
8.61
-0.91
7.25

2.65
8.02
2.37
10.18

1.76
-0.59
3.28
2.93

0.72
9.40
0.66
10.68

1.93
8.19
2.07
9.13

4.59
8.30
5.20
12.03

3.37
3.84
2.28
9.24

3.06
6.46
1.60
11.76

Feb 12-Jan 12

Singapore

Dubai (Hydroskimming)
Tapis (Hydroskimming)
Dubai (Hydrocracking)
Tapis (Hydrocracking)

-2.08
-7.97
-0.66
-8.54

0.83
-4.29
2.08
-5.05

-1.17
-5.85
0.98
-6.34

-2.00
-1.56
-1.10
-1.29

0.48
-4.08
2.15
-5.05

-1.32
-6.02
0.79
-6.64

-2.76
-7.94
-0.25
-8.07

-3.87
-8.91
-1.05
-8.83

-4.60
-9.91
-2.04
-10.26

China

Cabinda (Hydroskimming)
Daqing (Hydroskimming)
Dubai (Hydroskimming)
Daqing (Hydrocracking)
Dubai (Hydrocracking)

-0.07
-0.48
-2.37
-0.61
-0.82

2.68
0.93
0.45
1.12
1.82

0.54
0.93
-1.52
1.82
0.79

-2.15
-0.01
-1.97
0.71
-1.04

2.32
2.22
0.18
2.18
1.99

0.60
1.28
-1.71
1.98
0.55

-2.02
-0.65
-3.14
0.92
-0.46

-1.99
-1.60
-4.30
0.44
-1.32

-2.40
-2.04
-5.00
-0.67
-2.28

Fo r the purpo ses o f this repo rt, refining margins are calculated fo r vario us co mplexity co nfiguratio ns, each o ptimised fo r pro cessing the specific crude in a specific refining centre
o n a 'full-co st' basis. Co nsequently, repo rted margins sho uld be taken as an indicatio n, o r pro xy, o f changes in pro fitability fo r a given refining centre. No attempt is made to mo del
o r o therwise co mment upo n the relative eco no mics o f specific refineries running individual crude slates and pro ducing custo m pro duct sales, no r are these calculatio ns intended
to infer the marginal values o f crudes fo r pricing purpo ses.
*The China refinery margin calculatio n represents a mo del based o n spo t pro duct impo rt/expo rt parity, and do es no t reflect internal pricing regulatio ns.
So urces: IEA , P urvin & Gertz Inc.

Inall,4Q11globalthroughputsarenowassessedat74.6mb/d,120kb/dbelowyearearlierlevels,but
areseenrisingto74.9mb/din1Q12.RecentmonthsChineseandRussiandatapointtohealthyrefinery
activityinthosecountries,asdodataforBrazil,SouthKoreaandtheUS.Ontheotherhand,European
runs remain depressed, a phenomenon which may persist in months to come if individual refiners
struggletoreplaceIranianbarrels.

2Q12throughputsareestimatedtofallseasonallyto74.5mb/d,nonethelessreturningtoannualgrowth
of around 0.6 mb/d. Strength comes from China, the US, and Other Asia, all of which see the

46

14M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

R EFINING

commissioning of new capacity. The startup of Motivas expanded Port Arthur plant on the US Gulf
Coastaddsanadditional325kb/dtoUSdistillationcapacity.Chinacommissionednewcapacityduring
December and January, which will ramp up over coming months. Despite some delays, new Indian
capacity is expected to gradually rampup from March onwards, including MRPLs Mangalore refinery,
theBathindagrassrootsproject,Nagarjuna,aswellasEssarsexpandedVadinarplant.

Global Refinery Crude Throughput1


(million barrels per day)
Nov 11

Dec 11 4Q2011 Jan 12

Feb 12

Mar 12

Apr 12

1Q2012

May 12

Jun 12

2Q2012

North America

18.0

18.0

17.9

17.7

17.8

17.4

17.6

17.8

18.1

18.3

18.1

Europe

12.1

12.3

12.1

12.1

11.9

11.7

11.9

11.6

11.8

12.1

11.9

Pacific
Total OECD

6.6

6.8

6.5

7.0

6.9

6.5

6.8

6.4

6.1

5.9

6.1

36.7

37.0

36.5

36.8

36.6

35.6

36.3

35.8

36.0

36.3

36.0

FSU

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.5

6.7

6.4

6.7

6.8

6.6

Non-OECD Europe

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

China

9.2

9.2

9.1

9.3

9.3

9.2

9.3

9.4

9.1

9.2

9.2

Other Asia

9.1

9.1

8.9

9.2

9.2

9.0

9.2

9.0

9.1

9.2

9.1

Latin America

5.1

4.8

5.0

5.0

5.1

4.9

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.9

Middle East

6.1

5.9

6.0

5.8

5.9

5.5

5.7

5.6

5.9

5.9

5.8

Africa

2.2

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.2

Total Non-OECD

38.7

38.3

38.1

38.9

38.9

37.9

38.6

38.2

38.4

38.7

38.5

Total

75.5

75.3

74.6

75.7

75.5

73.4

74.9

74.0

74.4

75.1

74.5

1 Preliminary and estimated runs based on capacity, know n outages, economic run cuts and global demand forecast
Note: US Virgin Islands included in North America and not Latin America as previously

OECD Refinery Throughput


OECDrefinerycrudethroughputsdeclinedseasonallyinJanuary,to36.8mb/dfrom37.0mb/damonth
earlier,inlinewithourpreviousforecast.RunsdeclinedinNorthAmericaandEurope,whilehigherruns
in the Pacific provided a partial offset. European runs increased their deficit to yearearlier levels,
averagingcloseto0.5mb/dlessthanthesamemonthin2011.FrenchandItalianrunsinparticularwere
weakcomparedtoyearearlierlevels.US50runsontheotherhand,averagingsome140kb/dmorethan
ayearearlier,continuedtobenefitfrombettermarginsandsupportiveproductexports.SouthKorean
throughputsremainednearrecordlevels.

mb/d
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
Jan

OECD Total

mb/d

Crude Throughput

2.0

OECD Demand vs. Crude Runs


Annual Change

1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
Mar

May

Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

-3.0
1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12

Average 06-10
2011

Crude Runs

Oil Product Demand

Preliminary data for February show total OECD runs slightly lower than January, at 36.6 mb/d, but
350kb/dhigherthanpreviouslyexpected.AcounterseasonalincreaseinUScrudeintakeoffsetlower
runsinthePacific.NorthAmericancruderunsindeedposteda0.9mb/dannualincreaseinFebruary,on

14M ARCH 2012

47

R EFINING

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

a light seasonal maintenance schedule and relatively healthy refining margins in January, while both
EuropeanandPacificthroughputsremainedatthebottomoftheirhistoricalrange.

Refinery Crude Throughput and Utilisation in OECD Countries


(million barrels per day)
Change from

Utilisation rate1

Aug 11

Sep 11

Oct 11

Nov 11

Dec 11

Jan 12

Dec 11

Jan 11

15.59

15.27

14.54

14.96

14.84

14.59

-0.25

0.14

84.8%

82.5%

0.30

0.30

0.27

0.27

0.27

0.30

0.03

0.04

86.3%

75.1%

Canada

1.68

1.74

1.62

1.63

1.68

1.62

-0.06

-0.17

88.4%

97.9%

Mexico

1.24

1.10

1.15

1.18

1.16

1.21

0.06

0.09

73.6%

72.7%

18.81

18.41

17.59

18.04

17.95

17.73

-0.23

0.11

85.7%

84.4%

France

1.37

1.33

1.32

1.38

1.41

1.17

-0.23

-0.25

75.0%

81.3%

Germany

2.02

1.91

2.03

1.96

1.95

1.95

0.00

-0.03

91.4%

82.9%

Italy

1.66

1.57

1.55

1.52

1.55

1.57

0.03

-0.20

72.0%

77.9%

Netherlands

1.04

1.04

0.97

0.97

1.03

1.08

0.06

0.06

84.1%

79.1%

Spain

1.07

1.09

1.00

1.10

1.09

1.09

0.00

0.01

71.7%

76.3%

United Kingdom

1.51

1.47

1.39

1.45

1.46

1.48

0.02

0.00

81.7%

81.6%

Other OECD Europe

3.94

3.76

3.64

3.75

3.83

3.77

-0.07

-0.04

76.4%

77.4%

12.61

12.18

11.90

12.13

12.30

12.11

-0.19

-0.45

78.5%

79.3%

Japan

3.37

3.14

2.98

3.20

3.37

3.57

0.20

-0.16

77.7%

79.1%

South Korea

2.43

2.50

2.63

2.64

2.62

2.65

0.03

0.11

96.8%

93.0%

Other OECD Pacific

0.74

0.73

0.63

0.72

0.77

0.74

-0.03

0.02

78.9%

76.3%

6.54

6.37

6.24

6.56

6.76

6.96

0.20

-0.03

84.1%

83.3%

37.96

36.95

35.73

36.73

37.01

36.79

-0.22

-0.38

82.2%

81.7%

US2
US Virgin Islands

OECD North Am erica

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific
OECD Total

Jan 12

Jan 11

1 Expressed as a percentage, based o n crude thro ughput and current o perable refining capacity
2 US50

North American crude runs fell by 225 kb/d in January, as seasonal maintenance got underway.
Scheduled turnarounds were lighter than normal in the US, leaving regional runs 105 kb/d above
yearearlierlevels.US50runs,whichareestimatedtohaveoutperformedyearearlierlevelsby140kb/d
basedonpreliminarydata,postedgainsontheWestCoastandintheMidwest,whileGulfandEastCoast
operationswereloweryearonyear.

Note:fromthismonthsreportwehaveincludedtheUSVirginIslandsintheNorthAmericanregional
breakdown,ratherthaninLatinAmerica.Hovensashutits350kb/dCaribbeanrefineryinmidFebruary
after accumulating losses of $1.3 billion in past three years. The plant supplied the US East Coast in
particular,butrecentlyalsoexpandedsalestoothermarkets.

mb/d

OECD North America

mb/d

Crude Throughput

19.5

3.0

19.0

2.5

18.5

2.0

18.0

1.0

17.0

0.5
Mar

May

Range 06-10
2010
2011

48

Refinery Shutdowns

1.5

17.5
16.5
Jan

OECD North America

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Average 06-10
2011 est.
2012 est.

0.0
Jan

Mar
May
Jul
Range 07-11
2011 reported

Sep Nov
Jan
2010
2012 Forecast

14M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

R EFINING

USGulfCoastmarginsimprovedsharplyoverJanuary,onhighergasolinecracksfollowingthenewsof
reducedcapacityontheEastCoastandintheUSVirginIslands.HovensaannouncedinearlyJanuaryit
wouldhaltoperationsatitsCaribbeanplantbymidFebruary,furthertighteningAtlanticBasinproduct
markets.OntheEastCoast,Sunocoidledits178kb/dMarcusHookrefineryinDecember2011following
theshutdownofConocoPhillips185kb/dTrainerrefineryinSeptember2011.Withhighthroughputsin
February, however, margins plummeted on the Gulf Coast again and reached negative territory for all
benchmarkssurveyedinearlyMarch,exceptforMayacoking.WestCoastmarginsweresupportedbya
17FebruaryfireatBPs220kb/dCherryPointrefinery,whichdamagedtheplantsonlycrudeunitand
forced the refinerys shutdown. While the duration of the outage is still not clear, some sources
estimateditcouldbeseveralmonthsbeforefulloperationsarerestored.

m b/d

US Weekly Refinery Throughput

16.5

$/bbl
16

USGC Margins

12

16.0

15.5

15.0

14.5

-4
-8

14.0

Source: EIA

13.5
Jan

Apr

Jul

Range 2007-2011
2011

Oct

-12
Jan 11

Apr 11

Jul 11

Maya Coking
Mars Coking
Brent Cracking

5-yr Average
2012

Oct 11

Jan 12
LLS Cracking
Mars Cracking

US50 crude runs rose counterseasonally in February, to an estimated 14.8 mb/d based on adjusted
weekly data from the EIA. Higher margins in January and a lighterthannormal maintenance schedule
underpinned higher February throughputs. As a result, it is estimated that North American refiners
processed almost 0.9mb/d more crude than a year earlier. Yearonyear gains were mostly accounted
forbyGulfCoastrefinerswhoadded685kb/d.MidwestandWestCoastrefinerswerealsopostinggains,
of 160kb/d and 75 kb/d, respectively, with only the East Coast contracting annually due to the
shutdownsmentionedabove.

Monthonmonth, US Gulf Coast throughputs rose 235 kb/d in February, to 7.4 mb/d on average. The
startupofMotivasexpandedPortArthurrefineryincomingmonthscouldfurtherliftruns.TheMotiva
PortArthurrefinery,whichisa5050jointventurebetweenSaudiAramcoandShell,isnearcompletion
ofa$7billionexpansion thatwillmaketheplantthelargestrefineryinthe US.Operablecapacitywill
increasefrom285kb/dcurrentlyto600kb/d,andcokingcapacitywillnearlydoubleto95kb/dallowing
theplanttoprocessheaviercrudes.Anewhydrocrackerwillfurtherincreasetheplantsdistillateyields
while increased reforming capacity will boost highoctane gasoline component output. We expect the
planttocomeonstreamin2Q12,buttheexacttimingoframpuphasstillnotbeenannounced.

m b/d
8.5

US PADD 3 Refinery Throughputs

m b/d

US PADD 2 Refinery Throughputs

3.7

8.0

3.5

7.5

3.3

7.0

3.1

6.5

2.9
Source: EIA

6.0
Jan

14M ARCH 2012

Source: EIA

Apr

Jul

Oct

Range 2007-2011

5-yr Average

2011

2012

2.7
Jan

Apr
Range 2007-2011
2011

Jul

Oct
5-yr Average
2012

49

R EFINING

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

OECDEuropeanrunsfellbyalmost200kb/dinJanuaryto12.1mb/d,closeto0.5mb/dlessthanayear
earlier. Declines were steepest in France, were LyondellBasell halted operations at its 105 kb/d Berre
refineryatthebeginningoftheyearandinsolventPetroplusshutthePetitCouronnerefinerymidmonth
whencrudesuppliesranout.MaintenanceworkatTotalsLaMedeplantandIneosneighbouringLavera
refinery cut rates further. French throughputs were 230 kb/d lower monthonmonth, and 250kb/d
belowayearearlier.RunswerealsolaggingyearearlierlevelsinItaly,theseaveraging200kb/dlessin
January, at 1.57 mb/d. Enis 80 kb/d Porto Marghera refinery remains shut due to poor margins and
several other refiners have also had to reduce runs due to weak economics. Italian refiners were
particularlyhardhitbythelossofLibyansuppliesandmorerecentlytheIranianembargo.Italianrefiners
sourced23%oftheircrudefromLibyain2010and13%fromIran.

OECD Europe

mb/d
14.4

OECD Europe

mb/d

Crude Throughput

Firm Shutdowns

2.0

13.9
1.5

13.4
12.9

1.0

12.4

0.5

11.9
11.4
Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Range 06-10
2010
2011

Nov

Jan

0.0
Jan

Average 06-10
2012 est.

Mar

May

Jul

Range 07-11

Sep

Nov

Jan

2011

2012 Forecast
2012 Reported

EuropeancruderunsareexpectedtofallfurtherthroughApril,asregionalmaintenanceintensifies.The
spring turnaround schedule is nevertheless expected to be lighter than last year, even including the
temporaryshutdownsofPetroplusrefineriesandtheeconomicruncutsatRepsolsBilbaorefineryand
EnisPortoMarghera.

EuropeanrefiningmarginsdeterioratedsharplyinFebruaryandearlyMarch,oneverrisingcrudeprices
andonthenewsthatsomePetroplusplantswouldresumeoperation.Marginshadearlierbeengivena
lift in January on news of the refinery closures in the Atlantic basin. NWE cracking margins fell by
$1.53/bbland$1.75/bblforBrentandUrals,respectively,inFebruary,withBrentmarginsdippinginto
negativeterritoryinearlyMarch.CrackingmarginsintheMedfellbysimilaramountsandalsoposted
lossesinearlyMarch.Simple(hydroskimming)marginsfurtherdeterioratedinboththenorthandsouth,
reachinglossesofupto$8/bblforrefinersprocessingUralsintheMed.

$/bbl
6

$/bbl
5

NWE Refining Margins

Mediterranean Margins

4
2

0
-2

-5

-4
-6
-8
Jan 11

Apr 11

Jul 11

Brent Cracking
Urals Cracking

50

Oct 11

-10
Jan 11

Jan 12

Brent H'skimming
Urals H'skimming

Apr 11

Jul 11

Urals Cracking
Es Sider Cracking

Oct 11

Jan 12

Urals H'skimming
Es Sider H'skimming

14M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

R EFINING

Petroplus Assets Back in Action


Afteraroughstarttotheyear,Petroplusshareholdersandemployeesfinallyreceivedsomegoodnewsin
February.GenevabasedtradinggroupGunvoragreedtobuythegroupsAntwerprefineryandtocontinue
tooperatetheplantonalongtermbasis.The108kb/dplantwasshutinearlyFebruarywhenPetroplushad
to file for insolvency as lenders withdrew over $1 billion in credit lines (see Petroplus Latest Victim of
EuropeanDownstreamMalaiseinOMRdated18January2012).Theplant,whichistheleastcomplexofthe
Petroplus portfolio, is expected to restart in midMay according to a union source. The purchase could
bolster the traders position in the Northwest European product hub, and as the plant provides synergies
withitscapabilitytoprocessUralscrude.
In France, Shell agreed to supply up to 100 kb/d of crude to the Petit Couronne refinery in a tolling
agreementallowingtheplanttorestartbeforeasale.Accordingtopressreports,therestartcouldtakefrom
610weekstoallowforsomemaintenancetobeundertaken.WeassumetheplantwillstartinearlyMayat
reducedratesof100kb/d.
Thecompanys220kb/dCoryton,UKrefinery,gotalifelinefromPetropluscofounderMarcelVanPoecke,
astheinvestorteamedupwithMorganStanleyandanotherprivateequityfirmtoprovidecrudesuppliesfor
atleastthreemonths.Theplanthasbeenrunningataround50%utilisationsincelateDecemberwhenthe
companysfinancingtroublesbegan.Underthetollingagreement,thegroupwillsupplycrudetotheplant,
payafeeforthecrudeoiltobeprocessedattherefinery,andthentakeownershipoftherefinedproducts
from the plant. Proposed throughput rates are not known. The plant, the most sophisticated of the
portfolio, with a Nelson complexity factor of 12.0, has attracted a lot of interest from potential buyers,
includingbothRussianandAsianplayers.
ThecompanysGermanIngolstadtplant,however,hadtohaltoperationsinFebruaryascrudesuppliesran
out,whiletheSwissCressierunithasbeenshutsinceearlyJanuary.Inall,weexpectonlyCorytontooperate
untilMay,whenPetitCouronneandAntwerpwillgraduallyrestart.

OECD Pacific crude runs were mostly in line with expectations for January, at 6.96 mb/d, up 200 kb/d
monthonmonth and unchanged from a year earlier, as higher South Korean runs offset weaker
Japanesethroughputs.PreliminarydatafromPAJ,however,pointtostillweakerJapanesecrudeintake
inFebruary,leadingtoadownwardrevisionof180kb/dfortheregion.Pacificrunsaresettofallsharply
overcomingmonths,toalowpointof5.9mb/dinJuneasregionalmaintenanceintensifies.JXNippon
announcedon9Marchithadresumedfulloperationsatits145kb/dSendairefinery,oneyearafterit
wasdamagedintheearthquakeandtsunami.The11March2011earthquakeatsunamishutterednearly
1.4 mb/d of crude distillation capacity, or 31% of Japans total. Of this 800 kb/d was restored within
10days.Now,onlyCosmos220kb/dChibarefineryremainsofflinefollowingthedisaster.Thelatteris
still awaiting permission from local government to resume operations at the first of its two crude
distillationunits.

OECD Pacific

mb/d

South Korea

mb/d

Crude Throughput

7.5

2.8

7.0

2.6

6.5

2.4

6.0

Crude Throughput

2.2

5.5
Jan

Mar

May

Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.

14M ARCH 2012

Jul

Sep

Nov

2.0
Jan

Jan

Average 06-10
2011

Mar
2008
2011

May

Jul

Sep

2009
2012 est.

Nov

Jan

2010

51

R EFINING

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Non-OECD Refinery Throughput


NonOECDrefinerycruderunswererevisedlowerforDecemberandJanuary,basedonthemostrecent
availabledata.4Q11nonOECDrunshavebeenloweredby320kb/dto38.1mb/d,while1Q12estimates
have been reduced by 155 kb/d, to 38.6 mb/d. Revisions for December came from a number of
countries, including South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Venezuela, Syria and Saudi Arabia. As a result, annual
growthinnonOECDthroughputsslowedtoonly90kb/din4Q11,fromanaverageof1.4mb/doverthe
previouseightquarters.Annualgrowthisexpectedtopickupin2012,to290kb/din1Q12andrisingto
580kb/din2Q12,onstrongergrowthinChina,OtherAsiaandtheFSU.
China

Non-OECD Total
mb/d
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
Jan

mb/d
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
Jan

Crude Throughput

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.

Nov

Jan

Crude Throughput

Mar

Average 06-10
2011 est.

May

Jul

Sep

2008
2010
2012 est.

Nov

Jan

2009
2011
2012

Chinese refinery runs reached another record high in January as refiners ramped up runs to secure
adequate product supplies ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Throughputs averaged 9.34 mb/d,
almost 0.6mb/d higher than a year earlier, but 50 kb/d less than our previous forecast. As expected,
refinerstrimmedrunsslightlyinFebruary,to9.26mb/d,withtheonsetofseasonalmaintenanceandas
increasingcrudeoilpricescutintooperatingmargins.

CNPC shut a 160 kb/d crude unit at its Zhenhai refinery from midFebruary for 50 days, WEPEC were
planning slightly lower runs due to maintenance at some secondary units, and Anqing Petrochemical
shut a 110 kb/d unit for 45 days from 10 February. Runs have also likely fallen further in March as
SinopecsMaomingrefineryalsoshuta50kb/dcrudeunitandDalianisplanningtoshutonecrudeunit
fromlateMarch.Chineserefineriesarestillloosingmoneyduetogovernmentpricecontrolsonrefined
productsales.

Other Asian refinery throughputs were largely in line with expectations for December, averaging
9.1mb/d.Januaryruns,however,were85kb/dlowerthanforecastonweakerthanexpectedactivityin
India.Indiancruderunsfellby0.6%monthlyand4.6%annually,to4.2mb/d,duetoloweryearonyear
runs at Reliances 660kb/d Jamnagar refinery. The plants runs nevertheless stood at 709 kb/d,
compared to690kb/din December. Relianceshut a290kb/dcrudeunitat the580kb/dexportplant
frommidFebruaryforthreeweeksofmaintenance.Thisisthefirstscheduledturnaroundattheplant
sinceitwascommissionedin2008.
Crude Throughput

4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
Jan

9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
Jan

Mar

May

Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.

52

Jul

India

mb/d

Other Asia

mb/d
9.5

Sep

Nov

Jan

Average 06-10
2011 est.

Crude Throughput

Mar
2008
2011

May

Jul

Sep

2009
2012 est.

Nov

Jan

2010

14M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

R EFINING

The startup of the new Nagarjuna refinery, which was to be commissioned on 1 March, has been
delayedbymostlikelythreemonthsduetodamagecausedbyJanuaryscycloneThane.Newcapacityis
still expected to be brought on line in March by MRPL, which is adding a 60 kb/d crude unit to its
Mangalorerefinery.Thecompanyisalsoaddinga60kb/dvacuumdistillationunit,adieselhydrotreater,
followedbyothersecondaryunits,includinganFCC,laterintheyear.

BothIndianandChinesecrudeoilimportsreachedalltimehighsinJanuary.Chinaimported5.53mb/d
of crude in January, up 7.4% yearonyear, while India imported 4 mb/d, an 18.7% annual increase
accordingtoofficialdata.

Taiwans crude intake fell to only 706 kb/d in December, the lowest since April 2011, but in line with
forecast.RefineryproductionatFormosas540kb/dMailiaorefineryhasyettorecoverfromaseriesof
fires and outages that hit the plant in 2010/2011. The company is undertaking major safety checks,
reducingoutputtodifferingdegreesuntilatleastMay.

Russianrefinerycrudeintakerose145kb/dinJanuaryto5.31mb/donaverage,correspondingto4.4%
annual growth. The monthly increase stemmed mostly from the return to service of TNKBPs Saratov
refinery, which halted operations due to maintenance in December. Preliminary data show Russian
refinery runs rose further in February, to 5.37 mb/d, up 5.3% annually, and some 140 kb/d above
expectations.FromMarchonwards,Russianthroughputsareexpectedtofallsharplyasrefineriescarry
outseasonalmaintenance.FrompracticallynoworkinJanuaryandFebruary,offlinecapacityinMarchis
estimated at 335 kb/d, rising to almost 500 kb/d in April. Lukoils Nizhny Novogrod, TNKBPs Ryazan,
AlliancesKhaborovsk,SlavneftsYaroslavandRosneftsSyrzanandNovokyibyshevplants,areamongthe
refineriesexpectedtoreducerunsovertheMarchAprilperiodduetomaintenancework.
Russia

mb/d

mb/d
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.4
Jan

Crude Throughput

5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
Jan

Mar
2008
2011

May

Jul

Sep

2009
2012 est.

Nov

Jan

2010

FSU
Crude Throughput

Mar

May

Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Average 06-10
2011 est.

Russian Refinery Runs Boosted by Higher Prices


While European competitors are balking at high crude prices and poor refining margins, Russian
downstream operators are currently seeing their profits surge. Recordhigh crude prices not only mean
highertaxesandexportdutiesforthegovernmentandincreasedupstreamrevenueforoperators.Also,the
higher the outright crude price, the bigger the incentive for Russian oil companies to refine crude
domesticallyandexportproducts.Whilehigherproductexportshavenotyetmaterialised,Russianrefiners
are running at nearrecord utilisation rates to feed domestic markets and potentially build product
inventories.Higherrefinerymarginsinturnsupportincreasedinvestmentinthedownstreamandhigheroil
productexportsincomingyears,oneofgovernmentsmainmotivationsforthe6066exportdutyreform.
Previously,Russianexportdutiesratesweresetwithasubstantialabsolutedifferencebetweencrudeand
product duties, with the greatest difference between fuel oil and crude, aimed at allowing Russian oil
refiners to retain a greater share of their revenue as a means to finance modernisation. In practice,
however,thetaxrulesresultedinhigherexportsoffueloiltoEuropeanrefinersandlittleincentivetoinvest
inupgradingcapacity.

14M ARCH 2012

53

R EFINING

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Russian Refinery Runs Boosted by Higher Prices (continued)


The6066taxreformthatwasintroducedon1October2011,loweredthemarginaltaxrateontheexport
dutyforcrudeoilfrom65%to60%inanattempttostimulateupstreaminvestments(SeeSupplyandRefining
sectionsinSeptember2011OMR).Atthesametime,productexportdutieswerealignedat66%oftheexport
dutyforcrude,withtheexceptionofnaphthaandgasolineduties,whichweresetat90%topreventdomestic
shortages.Thismeantthatwhilethedutyongasoilandjetfuelwasreducedfrom67%oftherateofcrudeto
66%,thefueloildutywasincreasedfrom46.7%to66%.Thedifferencebetweencrudeandproductduties
weredesignedtocoverthedifferencebetweentransportationcostsforcrudeoilandoilproducts.
Themainobjectivesofthetaxchangesweretoreducetheincentiveforexportingfueloilrelativetolighter
products,andincentivisingRussianrefinerstoupgrademorefueloilatdomesticplants.Thereductionofthe
difference in the duty between crude oil and oil products, in theory reduces the overall incentive for
refiners.CurrenthigherflatpricesofUrals,however,offsettheincreaseinproductexportduties.
When Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed the decree introducing the new export duty scheme on
26August2011,thepriceofUralswas$110/bbl.Atthispricethecrudeoilexportdutywascalculatedat:
[$110/bbl25]*0.6+$4/bbl=$55/bbl
WithrecentUralspricesapproaching$125/bbl,theexportdutyincreasesto:
[$125/bbl25]*0.6+$4/bbl=$64/bbl
Productdutieshaveincreasedbyless,however,from$38.90/bblto$45.30/bbl(weightedaverage,basedon
currentaveragerefineryconfigurations).Therefore,a$15/bblincreaseinthepriceofcrude,hastranslated
intoa$9/bblincreaseincrudeoilexportduty,butonlya$6.40/bblincreaseinproductexportduties.Asa
result,theincreasedrefiningmargin(orrefiningtaxincentive)increasesby$2.60/bblto$18.70/bblby
faroutweighinganytransportationcostdifferences.
Duty
$/bbl
100

$/bbl

Russian Export Duties

Russian Refining Tax Incentive

30

80

25

60

20

40

15

20

10

0
30

50

70

90
110 130 150
Average Urals Price $/bbl

Crude Oil
Refining Tax Incentive*

0
30

Oil Products

50

70

90

110
130
150
Average Urals Price $/bbl

*Oil products export duty and refining tax incentive calculated based on current refining configuration (20% naphtha/gasoline yield,
80% other products). Of course, refineries will higher or lower complexity, will pay different product duties and enjoy varying tax
incentives.Also,companieswithhigherfueloilyield,incurlowermarginsthanbeforetheintroductionof6066,thoughagainoffsetby
higherflatprices.

ElsewhereintheFSU,TNKBPannounceditwouldsuspendsuppliesofcrudetothe320kb/dLysychansk
refineryinUkrainefromMarch,becauseofcontinuousoperatinglosses.Thedurationoftheshutdownis
not known, but we assume it will be shut for at least a month. Despite nameplate capacity of some
800kb/d,annualdatashowUkrainesrefinerieswererunningatverylowutilisationratesofaround25%
in2009(latestavailabledata).Kazakhstanicruderunsfellby27kb/dinJanuary,to295kb/d,down8.5%
fromthepreviousmonthbut5.8%higherthanJanuary2011.InLithuania,PKNOrlensMazeikiuNafta
refinerywillshutinMarchformaintenance.

MiddleEasterncruderunshavebeenrevisedlowerfor4Q11followingararerevisiontoSaudiArabias
JODIdata.Octobercruderunswere175kb/dlowerthanfirstpublished,at1.8mb/d.Iraqicruderunsare

54

14M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

R EFINING

assessedat592kb/dinJanuary,downfrom600kb/dinDecember.InYemen,theAdenrefineryremains
shut,morethantwomonthsafterapipelineexplosionhaltedcrudedeliveriestotheplant.Thecountry
isseekingdieselimportstomeetdomesticdemand.Omanisexpectedtoundertakemaintenancelasting
45 days at its 85 kb/d Mina al Hahal refinery starting March. While no data is available for Syrias
downstreamoperations,weassumeHomsrefineryisrunningatreducedratesduetopipelinesabotage
andreduceddomesticproduction.CurrentSyrianoilproductionisestimatedat190kb/din1Q12,allof
whichisassumedtofeedthecountrystwodomesticrefinerieswithacombinedcapacityof240kb/d.

Africa
Middle East
mb/d
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
Jan

Crude Throughput

mb/d
6.5
6.3
6.1
5.9
5.7
5.5
Jan

Mar
May
Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.

Jul

Sep
Nov
Jan
Average 06-10
2011 est.

Crude Throughput

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.

Nov

Jan

Average 06-10
2011 est.

InAfrica,therestartofLibyasRasLanufplanthasagainbeendelayed,duetoproblemsrestoringSarir
andMeslaproduction.WenowonlyexpecttheplanttoresumeoperationsbylateApril.Chadsrefinery
outputresumedinFebruary,afterthegovernmentanditsChinesepartner,CNPC,reachedanagreement
overfuelpricing.WhilethereisnomonthlydatatrackingSudanesecruderuns,weassumethatrunsat
the100kb/dKhartoumrefineryhavebeenreducedduetotheshuttinginofoilproduction.

InLatinAmerica,Argentineanrunsreboundedin Decemberto530kb/d,fromonly480 kb/doverthe


two previous months. January Brazilian runs were unchanged from December, at 1.87 mb/d. Regional
runswereneverthelessreviseddownby185kb/dinDecemberbasedonlowerVenezuelanthroughputs.
Afireatthecountrys310kb/dCardonrefineryinearlyFebruarycouldkeeprunsatreducedlevels.We
havealsoloweredouroutlookforArubaafterValeroannouncedithadcutrunratesby50%duetoweak
margins.AsdiscussedintheNorthAmericasection,wehavemovedtheUSVirginIslandsplantoutofthe
LatinAmericanregionandintoOECDNorthAmerica.Thatsaid,Hovensacompletedtheshutdownofits
350kb/drefineryinmidFebruary.

Latin America

mb/d
5.8

mb/d
5.4

Crude Throughput

5.6

5.2

5.4

5.0

5.2

4.8

5.0

4.6

4.8

4.4

4.6
Jan

Mar

May

Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.

14M ARCH 2012

Jul

Sep

Nov

4.2
Jan

Jan

Average 06-10
2011 est.

Latin America excl. US Virgin Islands

Crude Throughput

Mar

May

Range 06-10
2010
2012 est.

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Average 06-10
2011 est.

55

T ABLES

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Table 1
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND

TABLES

(million barrels per day)

Table 1 - World Oil Supply and Demand


2008 2009

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012

OECD DEMAND
North America
Europe
Pacific

24.2 23.3
15.4 14.7
8.1
7.7

23.4 23.7 24.1 23.9 23.8


14.3 14.3 14.9 14.8 14.6
8.2
7.3 7.6
8.1
7.8

23.8 23.3 23.6 23.4 23.5


14.2 14.1 14.7 14.1 14.3
8.3 7.1 7.7
8.3 7.9

23.3 23.1 23.6 23.5 23.4


13.7 13.6 14.3 14.1 13.9
8.6 7.4
7.6 8.1
7.9

Total OECD

47.6 45.6

46.0 45.3 46.7 46.7 46.2

46.3 44.5 45.9 45.7 45.6

45.6 44.1 45.5 45.7 45.2

4.2
4.2
0.8
0.7
7.7
8.1
9.7 10.1
6.0
6.0
7.3
7.5
3.3
3.3

4.4
4.3 4.6
4.6
4.5
0.7
0.7 0.7
0.7
0.7
8.6
9.1 8.9
9.7
9.1
10.4 10.6 10.2 10.6 10.4
6.0
6.3 6.5
6.4
6.3
7.4
7.8 8.3
7.7
7.8
3.3
3.4 3.4
3.4
3.4

4.5 4.6 4.8


4.8 4.7
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.7 0.7
9.5 9.5 9.3
9.7 9.5
10.7 10.7 10.4 10.9 10.7
6.3 6.5 6.7
6.6 6.5
7.6 8.0 8.5
8.0 8.0
3.4 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.3

4.6 4.7
4.9 4.9
4.8
0.7 0.7
0.7 0.7
0.7
9.8 9.9
9.7 10.1
9.9
10.9 11.0 10.7 11.2 10.9
6.4 6.6
6.8 6.7
6.7
7.7 8.2
8.6 8.1
8.2
3.5 3.5
3.5 3.5
3.5

Total Non-OECD

38.9 39.9

40.8 42.2 42.5 43.1 42.2

42.7 43.4 43.6 44.1 43.5

43.7 44.6 45.0 45.4 44.7

86.6 85.6

86.8 87.5 89.1 89.8 88.3

89.0 87.9 89.6 89.8 89.1

89.3 88.7 90.5 91.1 89.9

Europe
Pacific

13.3 13.6
4.8
4.5
0.6
0.7

14.0 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.1


4.5
4.1 3.8
4.2
4.1
0.6
0.6 0.6
0.6
0.6

14.4 14.3 14.6 15.0 14.6


4.1 3.8 3.6
3.8 3.8
0.5 0.5 0.5
0.6 0.5

15.0 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.1


3.8 3.6
3.5 3.8
3.7
0.6 0.6
0.7 0.7
0.6

Total OECD

18.8 18.8

19.1 18.8 18.5 19.1 18.9

19.0 18.6 18.7 19.4 18.9

19.4 19.1 19.3 19.8 19.4

12.8 13.3
0.1
0.1
3.8
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.9
1.7
1.7
2.6
2.6
28.4 29.1

13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.5


0.1
0.1 0.1
0.1
0.1
4.0
4.1 4.1
4.2
4.1
3.7
3.7 3.7
3.7
3.7
4.0
4.1 4.1
4.1
4.1
1.7
1.7 1.7
1.8
1.7
2.5
2.5 2.5
2.5
2.5
29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.8

13.6 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6


0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1
4.2 4.2 4.1
4.0 4.1
3.6 3.5 3.5
3.6 3.6
4.2 4.2 4.2
4.3 4.2
1.8 1.7 1.7
1.5 1.7
2.5 2.5 2.5
2.6 2.5
30.1 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8

13.7 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.8


0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1
0.1
4.1 4.2
4.1 4.2
4.2
3.6 3.6
3.5 3.5
3.5
4.3 4.4
4.5 4.5
4.4
1.4 1.4
1.5 1.5
1.5
2.4 2.3
2.3 2.4
2.3
29.8 29.8 29.7 30.1 29.9

NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa

Total Demand

OECD SUPPLY
North America4

NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia2
Latin America2,4
Middle East
Africa2
Total Non-OECD
Processing Gains3

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

Global Biofuels4

1.4

1.6

1.4

2.0

2.1

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.9

2.2

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.0

1.9

Total Non-OPEC2

50.6 51.5

52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6

52.7 52.3 52.7 53.1 52.7

53.0 53.1 53.5 54.2 53.5

Non-OPEC: Historical Composition2

49.6 51.5

52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6

52.7 52.3 52.7 53.1 52.7

53.0 53.1 53.5 54.2 53.5

Total OPEC2

31.6 29.1
4.5
4.9
36.1 34.1

29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.4


5.2
5.2 5.4
5.6
5.3
34.5 34.4 35.0 35.1 34.8

30.0 29.5 30.0 30.4 30.0


5.7 5.7 5.8
5.9 5.8
35.7 35.2 35.8 36.3 35.7

OPEC: Historical Composition2

37.1 34.1

34.5 34.4 35.0 35.1 34.8

35.7 35.2 35.8 36.3 35.7

Total Supply6

86.7 85.6

86.6 87.0 87.6 88.2 87.3

88.5 87.5 88.4 89.4 88.5

0.4
0.0

0.9
-0.1

-0.1
-0.1

0.1
0.0

-0.4
0.0

OPEC
Crude5
NGLs

STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS


Reported OECD
Industry
0.3 -0.1
Government
0.0
0.1
Total
Floating Storage/Oil in Transit
Miscellaneous to balance7
Total Stock Ch. & Misc

-0.8
0.1

0.5
0.0

-0.1
-0.4

-0.7
0.1

6.1

6.2

6.5

6.5

6.3

-0.2
-0.1

0.3

0.0

0.4

0.9

-0.2

-0.7

0.1

-0.5

0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

0.0
-0.2

0.3
-0.3

-0.2
-0.4

0.1
-1.4

-0.2
-1.1

-0.3
-0.6

-0.2
-0.9

0.2
-0.3

-0.2
-0.7

-0.2
-0.4

-0.1
0.3

-0.1
-0.3

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

-1.5

-1.7

-1.0

-0.6

-0.4

-1.1

-0.4

-0.6

Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.8
Adjusted Call on OPEC + Stock ch.9

31.5 29.2
31.3 28.8

29.5 29.8 31.1 31.2 30.4


29.1 28.3 30.0 30.6 29.5

30.6 29.9 31.1 30.8 30.6


30.3 29.2 30.7 31.1 30.3

30.1 29.4 30.5 30.4 30.1


29.6 28.8 30.0 29.8 29.5

1 Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning,
oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
2 Other Asia includes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January 2009. Non-OPEC Historical Composition excludes countries that were OPEC members at that point in time.
Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. OPEC Historical Composition comprises countries which were OPEC members at that point in time.
3 Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses.
4 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
5 As of the March 2006 OMR, Venezuelan Orinoco heavy crude production is included within Venezuelan crude estimates. Orimulsion fuel remains within the OPEC NGL and
non-conventional category, but Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
6 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply.
7 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas.
8 Equals the arithmetic difference between total demand minus total non-OPEC supply minus OPEC NGLs.
9 Equals the "Call on OPEC + Stock Ch." with "Miscellaneous to balance" added for historical periods and with an average of "Miscellaneous to balance" for the most recent 8 quarters added for forecast periods.

56

14 M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

T ABLES

Table 1A

Table 1a - WORLD
World Oil
ChangesFROM
fromLAST
LastMONTH'S
MonthsTABLE
Table11
OILSupply
SUPPLYand
AND Demand:
DEMAND: CHANGES
(million barrels per day)

2008 2009

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012

OECD DEMAND
North America
Europe
Pacific

-0.1
-

-0.1
-

0.1
-0.1

Total OECD

-0.1

FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa

0.2
-

-0.1
-

-0.1
-

Total Non-OECD

0.2

-0.1

Total Demand

0.2

-0.1

North America
Europe
Pacific

0.1
-

-0.1
-

-0.1
-

0.1
-0.1
-

0.2
-0.1
-

0.1
-0.1
-

Total OECD

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

Total Non-OECD

-0.1
-0.1

0.1

-0.2
0.1
-0.1

-0.1
-0.1
-0.1

-0.1
-0.1
-0.2

-0.1
-0.2
-0.2

-0.1
-0.1
-0.2

-0.1
-0.1
-0.2

Processing Gains

Global Biofuels

Total Non-OPEC

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

Non-OPEC: historical composition

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

Crude
NGLs

-0.1
-

-0.1
-

-0.1
-

-0.1
-

-0.2
-

Total OPEC

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

OPEC: historical composition

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

Total Supply

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

-0.2

STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS


REPORTED OECD
Industry
Government
-

-0.1
-

Total

-0.1

Floating Storage/Oil in Transit


Miscellaneous to balance

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

Total Stock Ch. & Misc

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.1
-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1
-

0.1
-0.1

0.4
0.3

0.2
0.2

0.2
0.1

0.1
-

0.2
0.1

NON-OECD DEMAND

OECD SUPPLY

NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU
Europe
China
Other Asia
Latin America
Middle East
Africa

OPEC

Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.
Adjusted Call on OPEC + Stock ch.

When submitting their monthly oil statistics, OECD Member countries periodically update data for prior periods. Similar updates to non-OECD data can occur.

14 M ARCH 2012

57

T ABLES

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Table 2

Table 2 - Summary of Global Oil Demand

SUMMARY OF GLOBAL OIL DEMAND

2009

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

2010

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

2011

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

2012

Demand (mb/d)
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD
Asia
Middle East
Latin America
FSU
Africa
Europe
Total Non-OECD
World

23.29
14.66
7.69
45.64
18.19
7.53
5.99
4.18
3.33
0.71
39.93
85.57

23.41
14.32
8.23
45.95
18.98
7.42
6.05
4.38
3.33
0.67
40.84
86.79

23.69
14.26
7.35
45.29
19.65
7.83
6.29
4.33
3.43
0.68
42.21
87.50

24.10
14.93
7.62
46.65
19.12
8.29
6.46
4.55
3.38
0.68
42.48
89.13

23.85
14.83
8.07
46.75
20.26
7.72
6.39
4.57
3.43
0.70
43.08
89.83

23.77
14.58
7.82
46.17
19.50
7.82
6.30
4.46
3.39
0.68
42.16
88.32

23.78
14.20
8.35
46.33
20.27
7.62
6.29
4.46
3.41
0.67
42.72
89.05

23.31
14.12
7.11
44.55
20.23
8.01
6.48
4.61
3.34
0.69
43.35
87.90

23.56
14.69
7.68
45.93
19.70
8.46
6.67
4.82
3.27
0.72
43.63
89.56

23.35
14.06
8.28
45.70
20.62
7.96
6.57
4.84
3.37
0.72
44.09
89.79

23.50
14.27
7.86
45.63
20.20
8.02
6.50
4.69
3.34
0.70
43.45
89.08

23.27
13.73
8.62
45.63
20.72
7.75
6.45
4.60
3.48
0.68
43.68
89.31

23.08
13.62
7.38
44.08
20.83
8.19
6.64
4.71
3.53
0.70
44.61
88.69

23.60
14.33
7.62
45.54
20.38
8.62
6.81
4.93
3.49
0.71
44.95
90.49

23.55
14.08
8.06
45.68
21.35
8.11
6.73
4.95
3.54
0.72
45.41
91.09

23.38
13.94
7.92
45.24
20.82
8.17
6.66
4.80
3.51
0.70
44.66
89.90

of which: US50
Europe 5*
China
Japan
India
Russia
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Korea
Mexico
Iran
Total

18.77
8.98
8.06
4.39
3.26
3.03
2.54
2.47
2.16
2.19
2.07
2.11
60.03

18.87
8.87
8.63
4.82
3.38
3.17
2.60
2.33
2.15
2.31
2.07
2.10
61.31

19.15
8.75
9.06
4.07
3.45
3.17
2.71
2.73
2.17
2.18
2.10
2.08
61.61

19.47
9.15
8.92
4.36
3.13
3.40
2.82
3.02
2.29
2.16
2.05
2.08
62.86

19.23
9.01
9.66
4.57
3.38
3.36
2.80
2.54
2.25
2.35
2.07
2.09
63.31

19.18
8.95
9.07
4.45
3.34
3.28
2.73
2.66
2.22
2.25
2.07
2.09
62.28

19.17
8.71
9.54
4.86
3.50
3.21
2.69
2.49
2.25
2.36
2.05
2.09
62.91

18.82
8.57
9.52
3.92
3.57
3.43
2.77
2.89
2.15
2.04
2.06
2.05
61.80

18.89
8.89
9.30
4.32
3.26
3.64
2.88
3.15
2.29
2.21
2.09
2.03
62.95

18.71
8.54
9.69
4.82
3.57
3.63
2.86
2.74
2.22
2.30
2.11
2.04
63.22

18.90
8.68
9.51
4.48
3.47
3.48
2.80
2.82
2.23
2.23
2.08
2.05
62.72

18.66
8.49
9.82
5.13
3.59
3.33
2.73
2.60
2.21
2.33
2.08
2.07
63.05

18.62
8.26
9.86
4.16
3.67
3.51
2.80
2.99
2.13
2.07
2.06
2.06
62.18

18.96
8.63
9.72
4.25
3.37
3.73
2.91
3.23
2.26
2.22
2.08
2.05
63.43

18.91
8.47
10.13
4.55
3.71
3.71
2.90
2.83
2.22
2.33
2.11
2.06
63.92

18.79
8.46
9.88
4.52
3.59
3.57
2.84
2.91
2.21
2.24
2.08
2.06
63.15

% of World

70.2%

70.6%

70.4%

70.5%

70.5%

70.5%

70.7%

70.3%

70.3%

70.4%

70.4%

70.6%

70.1%

70.1%

70.2%

70.2%

1.6
-0.9
1.5
0.8
6.8
2.7
3.9
1.8
2.2
-0.2
4.6
2.6

-1.6
-1.0
-3.2
-1.7
2.9
2.3
2.9
6.6
-2.9
1.8
2.7
0.5

-2.2
-1.6
0.8
-1.5
3.0
2.0
3.2
5.9
-3.3
5.2
2.7
0.5

-2.1
-5.1
2.6
-2.2
1.8
3.2
2.8
5.8
-1.8
2.6
2.3
0.0

-1.1
-2.2
0.5
-1.2
3.6
2.6
3.2
5.0
-1.5
2.4
3.1
0.9

-2.1
-3.3
3.3
-1.5
2.2
1.6
2.6
3.1
2.1
1.5
2.2
0.3

-1.0
-3.5
3.7
-1.0
3.0
2.3
2.6
2.2
5.8
0.8
2.9
0.9

0.1
-2.5
-0.8
-0.9
3.5
2.0
2.2
2.3
6.9
-0.3
3.0
1.0

0.8
0.1
-2.7
0.0
3.5
1.9
2.5
2.2
5.1
-0.2
3.0
1.4

-0.5
-2.3
0.8
-0.9
3.1
1.9
2.4
2.4
5.0
0.4
2.8
0.9

0.37
-0.12
0.12
0.37
1.29
0.20
0.24
0.08
0.07
0.00
1.88
2.25

-0.38
-0.14
-0.23
-0.75
0.58
0.18
0.18
0.29
-0.10
0.01
1.14
0.40

-0.54
-0.24
0.06
-0.72
0.58
0.17
0.21
0.27
-0.11
0.04
1.15
0.43

-0.50
-0.76
0.21
-1.05
0.36
0.25
0.18
0.27
-0.06
0.02
1.01
-0.04

-0.26
-0.32
0.04
-0.54
0.70
0.20
0.20
0.23
-0.05
0.02
1.29
0.75

-0.51
-0.46
0.27
-0.70
0.45
0.12
0.16
0.14
0.07
0.01
0.96
0.26

-0.23
-0.50
0.26
-0.46
0.60
0.18
0.17
0.10
0.19
0.01
1.25
0.79

0.03
-0.36
-0.06
-0.39
0.68
0.17
0.15
0.11
0.22
0.00
1.32
0.93

0.20
0.01
-0.23
-0.02
0.73
0.15
0.16
0.11
0.17
0.00
1.32
1.30

-0.12
-0.33
0.06
-0.39
0.62
0.16
0.16
0.11
0.17
0.00
1.21
0.82

0.00
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.04

0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.02

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01

0.03
-0.07
-0.03
-0.07
0.02
0.00
0.05
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.04
-0.03

0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01

-0.07
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.15
-0.01
0.03
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.19
0.19

-0.04
-0.01
0.00
-0.04
-0.04
-0.01
0.01
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.04

-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
-0.07
-0.01
0.01
0.04
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-0.03

0.09
-0.02
-0.08
-0.01
-0.07
0.00
0.02
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
-0.08
-0.09

-0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01

0.03

0.02

0.02

-0.03

0.01

0.15

-0.06

-0.04

-0.06

0.00

Annual Change (% per annum)


North America
-3.7
-0.1
3.3
3.6
1.3
2.0
Europe
-4.7
-5.1
-1.3
2.3
2.0
-0.5
Pacific
-4.6
1.2
0.4
4.7
0.6
1.7
Total OECD
-4.2
-1.5
1.4
3.3
1.4
1.1
Asia
4.4
12.0
7.1
3.5
6.9
7.2
Middle East
3.5
5.0
3.4
2.9
4.3
3.8
Latin America
0.0
4.6
5.2
6.0
4.5
5.1
FSU
-1.2
8.4
6.4
4.9
7.2
6.7
Africa
1.6
-1.6
2.1
2.3
5.4
2.0
Europe
-6.3
-7.5
-6.9
-3.7
1.3
-4.2
Total Non-OECD
2.5
7.6
5.3
3.7
5.9
5.6
World
-1.2
2.6
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.2
Annual Change (mb/d)
North America
-0.89
-0.01
0.75
0.83
0.31
0.47
Europe
-0.73
-0.77
-0.18
0.33
0.29
-0.08
Pacific
-0.37
0.10
0.03
0.34
0.05
0.13
Total OECD
-1.98
-0.69
0.60
1.50
0.65
0.52
Asia
0.77
2.04
1.30
0.64
1.31
1.32
Middle East
0.25
0.35
0.26
0.24
0.32
0.29
Latin America
0.00
0.27
0.31
0.36
0.27
0.30
FSU
-0.05
0.34
0.26
0.21
0.31
0.28
Africa
0.05
-0.06
0.07
0.08
0.18
0.07
Europe
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.03
0.01
-0.03
Total Non-OECD
0.98
2.89
2.14
1.51
2.39
2.23
World
-1.00
2.20
2.74
3.01
3.04
2.75
Revisions to Oil Demand from Last Month's Report (mb/d)
North America
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Europe
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pacific
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total OECD
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Asia
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Middle East
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Latin America
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
FSU
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
Africa
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Europe
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Non-OECD
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
World
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
Revisions to Oil Demand Growth from Last Month's Report (mb/d)
World
0.00
0.01
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
* France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK

58

14 M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

T ABLES

Table 2a
Table 2a - OECD Regional Oil Demand
OECD REGIONAL OIL DEMAND1

(million barrels per day)

Latest month vs.


2010

2011

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11

LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products

2.95
0.37
10.57
1.65
4.82
0.93
2.46

2.97
0.35
10.33
1.65
4.92
0.85
2.43

3.31
0.37
10.14
1.60
5.04
0.97
2.35

2.71
0.36
10.45
1.68
4.77
0.87
2.47

2.76
0.34
10.49
1.71
4.86
0.76
2.64

3.10
0.34
10.22
1.59
5.03
0.82
2.26

2.92
0.36
10.21
1.56
5.05
0.77
2.34

3.05
0.34
10.14
1.65
5.16
0.74
2.31

Total

23.77

23.50

23.78

23.31

23.56

23.35

23.21

0.96
1.26
2.21
1.27
6.13
1.27
1.47

0.98
1.16
2.12
1.25
6.03
1.24
1.49

1.04
1.27
2.02
1.20
6.04
1.29
1.33

0.96
1.18
2.18
1.27
5.73
1.22
1.57

0.94
1.13
2.20
1.35
6.17
1.25
1.63

0.96
1.06
2.06
1.19
6.18
1.20
1.42

14.58

14.27

14.20

14.12

14.69

LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products

0.84
1.68
1.57
0.87
1.62
0.74
0.49

0.83
1.69
1.54
0.85
1.63
0.76
0.55

0.88
1.78
1.51
1.18
1.67
0.80
0.54

0.81
1.55
1.47
0.64
1.53
0.65
0.47

Total

7.82

7.86

8.35

LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products

4.76
3.31
14.36
3.80
12.58
2.94
4.42

4.78
3.21
13.99
3.75
12.58
2.85
4.48

Total

46.17

45.63

Nov 11

Dec 10

3.32
0.33
10.30
1.57
4.87
0.94
2.13

0.27
-0.01
0.16
-0.07
-0.29
0.21
-0.18

-0.19
0.02
-0.25
-0.06
-0.37
0.06
-0.11

23.38

23.47

0.08

-0.90

0.91
1.03
2.09
1.28
6.31
1.23
1.47

0.98
1.08
2.08
1.15
6.22
1.14
1.50

1.00
1.06
2.00
1.14
6.00
1.23
1.29

0.02
-0.02
-0.08
-0.01
-0.22
0.08
-0.21

-0.05
-0.20
-0.07
-0.07
-0.41
-0.09
0.01

14.06

14.32

14.16

13.72

-0.44

-0.89

0.79
1.73
1.61
0.63
1.59
0.76
0.56

0.86
1.71
1.57
0.96
1.71
0.82
0.65

0.78
1.62
1.50
0.79
1.64
0.75
0.64

0.83
1.74
1.56
0.88
1.72
0.81
0.57

0.97
1.77
1.66
1.20
1.77
0.90
0.74

0.14
0.03
0.11
0.33
0.06
0.09
0.17

0.03
-0.01
0.02
-0.01
0.02
0.11
0.22

7.11

7.68

8.28

7.73

8.09

9.02

0.92

0.38

5.23
3.43
13.67
3.98
12.75
3.06
4.22

4.48
3.09
14.11
3.58
12.04
2.74
4.51

4.49
3.20
14.31
3.70
12.62
2.77
4.83

4.92
3.11
13.85
3.74
12.91
2.84
4.33

4.62
3.01
13.80
3.63
13.00
2.75
4.46

4.86
3.16
13.78
3.68
13.10
2.69
4.37

5.29
3.16
13.96
3.92
12.64
3.07
4.16

0.43
0.00
0.18
0.24
-0.46
0.38
-0.22

-0.21
-0.19
-0.29
-0.14
-0.76
0.07
0.12

46.33

44.55

45.93

45.70

45.26

45.64

46.20

0.56

-1.40

North America

Europe
LPG&Ethane
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel Oil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total

Pacific

OECD

1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
North America comprises US 50 states, US territories, Mexico and Canada.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).

14 M ARCH 2012

59

T ABLES

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Table 2b

Table 2b - OECD Oil Demand and % Growth in Demand in Selected


OECD Countries
1
OIL DEMAND IN SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES
(million barrels per day)

Latest month vs.


2010

United States

2011

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11

Nov 11

Dec 10

LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total

2.17
2.18
0.26
0.26
8.99
8.74
1.45
1.44
3.80
3.85
0.54
0.48
1.97
1.93
19.18 18.90

2.47
0.27
8.61
1.40
3.95
0.61
1.86
19.17

1.96
0.27
8.87
1.49
3.75
0.51
1.97
18.82

1.99
0.25
8.89
1.50
3.78
0.36
2.12
18.89

2.31
0.26
8.61
1.39
3.92
0.43
1.77
18.71

2.16
0.28
8.63
1.37
3.95
0.40
1.84
18.62

2.24
0.26
8.54
1.44
4.06
0.39
1.83
18.76

2.54
0.25
8.66
1.37
3.77
0.51
1.66
18.75

0.29
-0.01
0.13
-0.07
-0.29
0.12
-0.17
-0.01

-0.14
0.02
-0.25
-0.06
-0.41
-0.02
-0.12
-0.97

Japan
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total

0.48
0.77
1.00
0.55
0.41
0.43
0.40
0.41
4.45

0.50
0.72
0.98
0.53
0.41
0.41
0.45
0.49
4.48

0.54
0.79
0.95
0.80
0.41
0.48
0.42
0.47
4.86

0.50
0.65
0.92
0.36
0.39
0.36
0.36
0.38
3.92

0.45
0.74
1.04
0.34
0.41
0.36
0.48
0.51
4.32

0.52
0.70
1.00
0.62
0.43
0.43
0.53
0.60
4.82

0.46
0.66
0.95
0.47
0.42
0.38
0.48
0.57
4.41

0.50
0.72
0.97
0.54
0.43
0.41
0.51
0.54
4.62

0.61
0.73
1.07
0.83
0.45
0.48
0.59
0.68
5.43

0.10
0.00
0.10
0.30
0.02
0.06
0.08
0.15
0.81

0.06
-0.08
0.01
0.02
0.00
-0.02
0.17
0.25
0.40

0.10
0.41
0.46
0.18
0.67
0.43
0.15
0.09
2.49

0.10
0.39
0.46
0.18
0.68
0.36
0.15
0.11
2.41

0.10
0.44
0.43
0.17
0.63
0.37
0.16
0.05
2.35

0.10
0.40
0.47
0.19
0.67
0.23
0.14
0.12
2.34

0.11
0.39
0.47
0.19
0.71
0.42
0.15
0.12
2.55

0.09
0.33
0.46
0.17
0.68
0.41
0.15
0.13
2.42

0.08
0.33
0.48
0.18
0.68
0.47
0.14
0.14
2.50

0.09
0.34
0.48
0.17
0.73
0.38
0.14
0.15
2.47

0.09
0.33
0.43
0.16
0.64
0.39
0.16
0.10
2.28

0.00
-0.01
-0.05
-0.01
-0.09
0.01
0.02
-0.06
-0.19

-0.01
-0.08
0.02
0.01
0.04
-0.08
-0.01
0.05
-0.07

0.11
0.12
0.24
0.10
0.49
0.12
0.13
0.23
1.53

0.10
0.09
0.23
0.10
0.49
0.11
0.11
0.23
1.46

0.12
0.11
0.22
0.09
0.47
0.11
0.10
0.23
1.45

0.08
0.10
0.24
0.10
0.51
0.09
0.11
0.24
1.47

0.08
0.08
0.24
0.12
0.50
0.10
0.13
0.22
1.47

0.11
0.08
0.22
0.09
0.49
0.13
0.10
0.21
1.43

0.09
0.08
0.23
0.11
0.50
0.13
0.12
0.21
1.47

0.10
0.08
0.22
0.08
0.49
0.13
0.09
0.22
1.41

0.13
0.08
0.22
0.09
0.48
0.13
0.10
0.20
1.42

0.03
-0.01
0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.01
-0.03
0.02

-0.01
-0.03
-0.03
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.04
-0.04
-0.19

0.15
0.13
0.19
0.15
0.69
0.30
0.09
0.17
1.86

0.14
0.13
0.18
0.15
0.70
0.27
0.08
0.17
1.82

0.17
0.13
0.17
0.14
0.69
0.35
0.08
0.13
1.86

0.12
0.14
0.20
0.15
0.71
0.19
0.08
0.19
1.79

0.12
0.13
0.19
0.16
0.71
0.28
0.08
0.20
1.87

0.14
0.12
0.17
0.15
0.69
0.27
0.09
0.16
1.78

0.13
0.10
0.17
0.15
0.70
0.31
0.09
0.16
1.81

0.14
0.12
0.16
0.14
0.69
0.24
0.10
0.17
1.76

0.16
0.14
0.16
0.14
0.69
0.26
0.08
0.15
1.77

0.01
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
-0.02
-0.02
0.01

-0.04
0.03
-0.01
0.00
0.00
-0.16
-0.04
0.02
-0.20

0.14
0.03
0.35
0.33
0.45
0.12
0.06
0.14
1.62

0.14
0.03
0.33
0.33
0.45
0.12
0.06
0.15
1.60

0.14
0.03
0.34
0.34
0.45
0.11
0.07
0.15
1.62

0.15
0.03
0.34
0.32
0.45
0.11
0.06
0.16
1.61

0.13
0.02
0.33
0.33
0.45
0.13
0.06
0.15
1.61

0.12
0.02
0.33
0.32
0.47
0.11
0.06
0.13
1.56

0.12
0.02
0.33
0.33
0.46
0.11
0.06
0.14
1.57

0.12
0.03
0.34
0.33
0.48
0.12
0.06
0.13
1.59

0.12
0.02
0.32
0.32
0.46
0.10
0.07
0.13
1.53

0.00
0.00
-0.02
-0.01
-0.02
-0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.06

-0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
0.05
-0.02
0.01
0.00
0.01

0.35
0.08
0.74
0.11
0.23
0.31
0.10
0.30
2.22

0.36
0.08
0.74
0.11
0.23
0.32
0.10
0.29
2.23

0.39
0.09
0.69
0.11
0.22
0.36
0.11
0.28
2.25

0.35
0.08
0.74
0.10
0.22
0.28
0.09
0.29
2.15

0.36
0.08
0.78
0.12
0.23
0.32
0.08
0.32
2.29

0.35
0.07
0.75
0.11
0.24
0.32
0.11
0.28
2.22

0.35
0.06
0.74
0.10
0.26
0.30
0.09
0.30
2.21

0.37
0.07
0.75
0.11
0.25
0.31
0.11
0.26
2.23

0.32
0.07
0.75
0.11
0.22
0.36
0.13
0.26
2.23

-0.05
0.00
0.01
0.00
-0.03
0.05
0.01
0.00
0.00

-0.04
-0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.02
-0.04

Germany
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total

Italy
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total

France
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total

United Kingdom
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total

Canada
LPG
Naphtha
Motor Gasoline
Jet/Kerosene
Diesel
Other Gasoil
Residual Fuel Oil
Other Products
Total

1 Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from
non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils.
2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS).
3 US figures exclude US territories.

60

14 M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

T ABLES

Table 3

Table 3 - World Oil Production WORLD OIL PRODUCTION


(million barrels per day)
3a - Oil Supply In OECD Countries
2010

2011

8.05
3.70
2.36
2.31
2.03
0.53
0.80
1.73
2.08
1.55
1.25
0.47
2.53

9.04
3.58
2.67
2.50
2.21
0.59
0.82
1.64
2.18
0.46
1.28
0.50
2.50

29.41
5.34

29.96
5.78

Total OPEC

34.75

OPEC: Historical Composition6

34.75

OECD
North America
United States5
Mexico
Canada
Europe
UK
Norway
Others
Pacific
Australia
Others

14.10
7.77
2.96
3.37
4.14
1.36
2.14
0.65
0.61
0.51
0.10

14.56
8.11
2.94
3.50
3.83
1.11
2.04
0.67
0.52
0.43
0.09

Total OECD

18.86

2012

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

9.34
3.53
2.67
2.53
2.26
0.60
0.82
1.69
2.26
0.04
1.28
0.49
2.46

9.37
3.51
2.68
2.54
2.33
0.60
0.82
1.72
2.06
0.55
1.29
0.49
2.40

29.97
5.79

30.35
5.91

35.74

35.76

35.74

35.76

15.07
8.49
2.86
3.72
3.68
1.07
1.96
0.65
0.64
0.56
0.08

14.55
8.11
2.92
3.53
3.62
0.94
1.99
0.69
0.51
0.43
0.09

15.04
8.43
2.92
3.69
3.82
1.11
2.05
0.67
0.55
0.47
0.09

15.05
8.43
2.90
3.72
3.75
1.10
2.00
0.66
0.60
0.51
0.09

14.84
8.48
2.89
3.47
3.63
1.08
1.89
0.66
0.64
0.56
0.08

18.91

19.39

18.68

19.42

19.40

13.55
10.45
3.10

13.58
10.58
3.00

13.78
10.71
3.07

13.54
10.58
2.96

13.57
10.67
2.90

Asia
China
Malaysia
India
Indonesia
Others

7.80
4.10
0.72
0.86
0.97
1.14

7.68
4.12
0.66
0.89
0.93
1.08

7.71
4.17
0.67
0.90
0.87
1.10

7.60
4.06
0.65
0.89
0.94
1.06

Europe

0.14

0.14

0.14

Latin America
Brazil5
Argentina
Colombia
Others

4.07
2.14
0.69
0.79
0.45

4.22
2.19
0.67
0.92
0.44

4.43
2.33
0.67
1.00
0.43

1.74
0.87
0.39
0.30
0.19

1.65
0.89
0.33
0.23
0.20

2.50
0.70
0.25
1.56

Total Non-OECD
Processing Gains4
Global Biofuels5

3Q12

Dec 11

Jan 12

Feb 12

9.50
3.45
2.69
2.58
2.26
0.60
0.82
1.75
2.06
0.75
1.29
0.48
2.38

9.55
3.43
2.65
2.58
2.35
0.60
0.82
1.70
2.04
1.15
1.29
0.48
2.47

9.70
3.38
2.61
2.59
2.30
0.60
0.81
1.76
2.14
1.30
1.27
0.48
2.48

30.61
5.91

31.11
6.14

31.42
6.14

36.26

36.52

37.25

37.56

36.26

36.52

37.25

37.56

15.05
8.45
2.84
3.76
3.54
0.97
1.92
0.64
0.66
0.58
0.08

15.24
8.53
2.93
3.78
3.80
1.11
2.05
0.64
0.59
0.50
0.09

15.08
8.42
2.90
3.77
3.77
1.09
2.04
0.65
0.55
0.46
0.09

15.05
8.42
2.90
3.73
3.73
1.09
1.97
0.67
0.63
0.55
0.09

19.10

19.26

19.63

19.41

19.42

13.72
10.64
3.08

13.84
10.71
3.13

13.66
10.74
2.91

13.44
10.62
2.83

13.73
10.64
3.08

13.68
10.63
3.05

7.58
4.02
0.67
0.87
0.92
1.09

7.75
4.14
0.69
0.90
0.90
1.12

7.70
4.15
0.67
0.90
0.88
1.09

7.67
4.15
0.67
0.91
0.86
1.09

7.63
4.05
0.70
0.87
0.91
1.10

7.77
4.15
0.69
0.89
0.92
1.12

7.74
4.14
0.68
0.90
0.89
1.13

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

4.20
2.16
0.67
0.93
0.44

4.32
2.25
0.69
0.95
0.43

4.33
2.30
0.66
0.94
0.44

4.42
2.32
0.67
1.00
0.43

4.48
2.35
0.67
1.03
0.43

4.36
2.30
0.68
0.93
0.44

4.37
2.32
0.67
0.94
0.44

4.27
2.29
0.64
0.90
0.44

1.45
0.90
0.18
0.18
0.19

1.69
0.90
0.35
0.24
0.20

1.49
0.89
0.21
0.18
0.20

1.44
0.89
0.19
0.16
0.20

1.44
0.89
0.18
0.17
0.20

1.46
0.91
0.17
0.18
0.19

1.49
0.90
0.21
0.18
0.20

1.46
0.88
0.19
0.18
0.20

1.42
0.89
0.19
0.14
0.20

2.54
0.69
0.24
1.61

2.35
0.68
0.25
1.42

2.54
0.69
0.24
1.61

2.56
0.68
0.25
1.63

2.37
0.68
0.24
1.45

2.29
0.68
0.24
1.37

2.33
0.67
0.25
1.40

2.56
0.68
0.25
1.63

2.57
0.69
0.25
1.63

2.29
0.68
0.24
1.36

29.80

29.80

29.86

29.71

29.66

29.76

29.84

29.73

29.61

30.02

29.54

2.10

2.17

2.26

2.14

2.23

2.28

2.23

2.24

2.23

2.28

2.28

1.83

1.83

1.94

2.15

1.80

1.60

1.94

2.24

1.63

1.62

1.59

TOTAL NON-OPEC6

52.58

52.71

53.45

52.68

53.11

53.04

53.11

53.47

53.10

53.32

52.83

Non-OPEC: Historical Composition6

52.58

52.71

53.45

52.68

53.11

53.04

53.11

53.47

53.10

53.32

52.83

TOTAL SUPPLY

87.33

88.45

88.44

89.37

89.62

90.57

90.39

OPEC
Crude Oil
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
UAE
Kuwait
Neutral Zone
Qatar
Angola
Nigeria
Libya
Algeria
Ecuador
Venezuela
Total Crude Oil6
Total NGLs1,6
6

6.34

6.14

6.19

6.49

NON-OPEC

NON-OECD
Former USSR
Russia
Others

Middle East
Oman
Syria
Yemen
Others

Africa
Egypt
Gabon
Others

1 Includes condensates reported by OPEC countries, oil from non-conventional sources, e.g. Venezuelan Orimulsion (but not Orinoco extra-heavy oil),
and non-oil inputs to Saudi Arabian MTBE. Orimulsion production reportedly ceased from January 2007.
2 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs and oil from non-conventional sources
3 Includes small amounts of production from Israel, Jordan and Bahrain.
4 Net volumetric gains and losses in refining and marine transportation losses.
5 As of the July 2010 OMR, Global Biofuels comprise all world biofuel production including fuel ethanol from the US and Brazil.
6 Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. OPEC Historical Composition comprises countries which were OPEC members at that point in time.
Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. Non-OPEC Historical Composition excludes countries that were OPEC members at that point in time.

14 M ARCH 2012

61

T ABLES

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Table 4
Table 4 - OECD Industry Stocks and
Quarterly Stock Changes/OECD Government1
OECD
AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES
Controlled Stocks
andINDUSTRY
QuarterlySTOCKS
Stock Changes
Table 4a - Industry Stocks on Land in2 Selected Countries
2

North America
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total

Europe
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total

Pacific
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total

Total OECD
Crude
Motor Gasoline
Middle Distillate
Residual Fuel Oil
3
Total Products
Total

RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS

PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS

in Million Barrels

in Million Barrels

STOCK CHANGES
in mb/d

Sep2011

Oct2011

Nov2011

Dec2011

Jan2012*

Jan2009

Jan2010

Jan2011

1Q2011

2Q2011

3Q2011

4Q2011

466.7
250.6
227.8
42.4
707.3

475.6
243.1
218.1
44.4
689.4

475.6
254.5
216.7
47.2
697.9

463.0
259.0
225.1
40.8
697.2

473.3
270.2
227.1
39.8
696.9

476.7
249.9
217.7
40.8
681.7

462.4
266.1
237.6
48.1
699.0

478.7
269.6
234.4
47.5
703.2

0.25
-0.03
-0.24
-0.05
-0.58

0.02
-0.01
-0.04
-0.01
0.29

-0.36
0.02
0.16
-0.02
0.30

-0.04
0.09
-0.03
-0.02
-0.11

1341.8

1333.9

1334.3

1309.8

1325.3

1308.5

1302.1

1328.4

-0.39

0.49

0.03

-0.35

308.3
89.0
265.4
64.1
538.6

299.6
90.9
260.0
63.1
535.1

303.0
94.3
264.4
63.1
539.8

286.7
94.3
274.4
60.3
547.0

295.2
95.3
267.9
60.5
541.1

343.4
105.9
276.4
79.8
572.7

339.1
111.4
305.5
72.0
600.9

334.2
104.4
299.9
68.6
587.9

0.01
0.04
0.09
-0.01
0.11

-0.05
-0.09
-0.13
-0.03
-0.22

-0.11
-0.03
-0.09
0.00
-0.08

-0.24
0.06
0.10
-0.04
0.09

911.3

900.6

912.1

900.7

903.8

992.9

1012.0

992.7

0.06

-0.24

-0.23

-0.12

157.0
24.4
67.8
20.2
181.0

155.1
24.0
66.6
19.9
180.6

155.8
23.3
68.3
19.7
178.0

155.7
22.1
61.1
19.1
164.5

148.1
24.9
62.6
19.8
164.5

171.6
22.4
64.5
20.7
168.6

163.5
27.1
65.3
18.9
169.6

158.5
25.1
60.1
18.6
168.4

0.00
0.01
-0.06
0.02
-0.09

0.01
0.01
0.14
0.01
0.18

-0.03
-0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.10

-0.01
-0.02
-0.07
-0.01
-0.18

411.5

407.2

407.5

390.1

385.1

408.7

397.0

400.8

-0.10

0.26

0.07

-0.23

932.1
363.9
561.1
126.7
1426.9

930.3
358.1
544.6
127.4
1405.2

934.3
372.1
549.3
129.9
1415.8

905.4
375.5
560.6
120.2
1408.7

916.5
390.4
557.6
120.1
1402.5

991.7
378.1
558.6
141.2
1423.0

964.9
404.5
608.4
139.0
1469.5

971.4
399.1
594.5
134.7
1459.4

0.26
0.02
-0.21
-0.04
-0.56

-0.02
-0.09
-0.03
-0.04
0.25

-0.49
-0.02
0.07
-0.03
0.33

-0.29
0.13
0.00
-0.07
-0.20

2664.5

2641.7

2654.0

2600.6

2614.1

2710.0

2711.0

2721.8

-0.43

0.50

-0.13

-0.70

OECD GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED STOCKS5 AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES


2

RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS

PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS

in Million Barrels

in Million Barrels

STOCK CHANGES
in mb/d

Sep2011

Oct2011

Nov2011

Dec2011

Jan2012*

Jan2009

Jan2010

Jan2011

1Q2011

North America
Crude
Products

696.0
0.0

696.0
0.0

696.0
0.7

696.0
0.7

696.0
0.7

703.8
2.0

726.6
2.0

726.5
2.0

0.00
-0.02

0.00
0.00

-0.33
0.00

0.00
0.01

Europe
Crude
Products

183.0
235.9

182.8
235.5

184.2
235.2

186.7
234.1

186.7
234.1

186.4
232.9

184.4
240.9

185.8
233.6

-0.01
-0.03

-0.01
0.05

-0.02
-0.01

0.04
-0.02

Pacific
Crude
Products

390.7
18.7

391.1
20.0

392.6
20.0

393.6
20.0

393.6
20.0

389.2
19.2

389.0
20.0

389.7
20.0

0.02
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
-0.01

0.03
0.01

1269.6
254.6

1269.9
255.5

1272.7
255.9

1276.2
254.7

1276.2
254.7

1279.4
254.0

1300.0
262.9

1302.0
255.6

0.01
-0.05

-0.01
0.05

-0.36
-0.03

0.07
0.00

1525.6

1526.7

1529.9

1532.2

1532.2

1534.4

1564.3

1559.0

-0.03

0.04

-0.38

0.07

Total OECD
Crude
Products
Total

2Q2011

3Q2011

4Q2011

* estimated
1 Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) and include stocks held by
industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserve commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Closing stock levels.
3 Total products includes gasoline, middle distillates, fuel oil and other products.
4 Total includes NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.
5 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.

62

14 M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

T ABLES

Table 5

1
Table 5 - Total Stocks on
LandSTOCKS
in OECD
OECD Stocks
TOTAL
ON Countries/Total
LAND IN OECD COUNTRIES
('millions of barrels' and 'days')

End December 2010


Stock
Level

North America
Canada
Mexico
United States4

Days Fwd2
Demand

End March 2011

End June 2011

End September 2011

End December 2011

Stock Days Fwd


Level Demand

Stock Days Fwd


Level Demand

Stock Days Fwd


Level Demand

Stock Days Fwd


Level Demand

196.5
44.5
1796.1

86
22
94

185.2
45.0
1769.5

84
22
94

189.7
46.5
1807.6

81
22
96

188.6
46.1
1780.9

88
22
95

187.8
44.4
1752.1

2059.2

87

2021.7

87

2065.9

88

2037.7

88

2006.4

86

38.1
588.3
165.4
8.2

39
121
70
51

39.1
575.4
170.2
8.0

39
147
83
53

39.5
593.2
175.2
8.2

39
137
79
56

38.2
601.1
173.6
7.9

38
125
75
53

39.9
588.7
166.8
8.3

800.0

96

792.7

111

816.0

106

820.9

99

803.6

93

19.7
33.6
21.2
26.8
27.8
168.2
286.8
34.3
15.9
9.8
133.3
0.6
125.8
20.8
65.5
22.9
8.3
133.2
32.4
36.8
58.5
88.8

77
50
117
171
127
91
122
92
119
63
92
10
129
81
123
89
109
93
94
156
101
55

19.4
37.0
21.5
21.4
26.9
167.4
289.4
33.9
17.4
10.8
131.8
0.5
125.7
21.1
62.8
23.5
9.0
132.9
33.7
36.6
58.3
92.8

77
59
106
132
133
94
124
106
124
79
90
9
124
93
109
87
111
97
101
168
85
57

19.6
38.1
21.7
21.5
27.0
166.7
290.8
32.6
17.3
10.2
130.0
0.6
117.8
23.5
64.6
23.3
8.9
130.1
32.5
37.2
56.6
84.9

70
58
109
134
130
89
114
99
118
73
88
9
114
96
105
86
104
94
101
150
73
53

18.0
36.7
20.1
22.4
27.0
160.0
282.6
30.9
16.2
11.3
130.1
0.7
114.3
24.5
65.2
21.9
8.3
131.2
32.6
37.0
56.4
84.1

73
58
109
138
130
90
117
95
112
77
91
11
115
97
110
90
103
97
104
153
83
54

19.4
36.4
20.7
22.4
28.9
165.0
282.8
27.9
15.4
10.7
128.3
0.6
101.2
25.9
64.5
21.9
8.5
132.8
31.4
35.7
55.8
86.4

Total

1371.1

97

1374.0

97

1355.4

92

1331.5

95

1322.7

96

Total OECD

4230.3
-

91
147

4188.5
-

94
146

4237.3
-

92
147

4190.1
-

92
145

4132.8
-

148

Total

Pacific
Australia
Japan
Korea
New Zealand
Total

Europe
Austria
Belgium
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic

Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom

DAYS OF IEA Net Imports

91

1 Total Stocks are industry and government-controlled stocks (see breakdown in table below). Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks
and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) they include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserves commitments and are
subject to government control in emergencies.
2 Note that days of forward demand represent the stock level divided by the forward quarter average daily demand and is very different from the days of net
imports used for the calculation of IEA Emergency Reserves.
3 End December 2011 forward demand figures are IEA Secretariat forecasts.
4 US figures exclude US territories. Total includes US territories.
5 Data not available for Iceland.
6 Reflects stock levels and prior calendar year's net imports adjusted according to IEA emergency reserve definitions (see www.iea.org/netimports.asp).
Net exporting IEA countries are excluded.

TOTAL OECD STOCKS


CLOSING STOCKS

Total

4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011

4206
4278
4306
4327
4205
4241
4319
4296
4230
4188
4237
4190
4133

Industry
Government
controlled
Millions of Barrels

1527
1547
1561
1564
1564
1567
1562
1549
1561
1558
1561
1526
1532

2679
2731
2745
2763
2641
2675
2757
2747
2670
2631
2676
2665
2601

Total

90
96
95
94
92
94
93
92
91
94
92
92
91

Government
Industry
controlled
2
Days of Fwd. Demand

33
35
35
34
34
35
33
33
34
35
34
33
34

57
61
61
60
57
59
59
59
58
59
58
58
57

1 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes.
2 Days of forward demand calculated using actual demand except in 4Q2011 (when latest forecasts are used).

14 M ARCH 2012

63

T ABLES

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

Table 6

Table 6 - IEA
Member Country Destinations of Selected Crude Streams
IEA MEMBER COUNTRY DESTINATIONS OF SELECTED CRUDE STREAMS1
(million barrels per day)

2009 2010 2011

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11

Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11

Year Earlier
change
Dec 10

Saudi Light & Extra Light


North America
Europe
Pacific

0.52
0.59
1.28

0.69
0.66
1.21

0.69
0.83
1.24

0.71
0.70
1.33

0.72
0.79
1.14

0.47
0.93
1.21

0.85
0.88
1.27

0.67
0.90
1.22

0.96
0.89
1.26

0.93
0.84
1.35

0.78
0.63
1.27

0.15
0.21
0.07

Saudi Medium
North America
Europe
Pacific

0.40
0.02
0.34

0.36
0.00
0.34

0.37
0.02
0.40

0.33
0.39

0.36
0.02
0.38

0.40
0.05
0.43

0.40
0.01
0.40

0.35
0.01
0.33

0.44
0.02
0.46

0.42
0.00
0.42

0.36
0.32

0.05
0.10

Saudi Heavy
North America
Europe
Pacific

0.03
0.02
0.15

0.02
0.00
0.22

0.02
0.01
0.20

0.02
0.00
0.20

0.03
0.00
0.21

0.03
0.03
0.23

0.01
0.03
0.18

0.02
0.02
0.08

0.02
0.03
0.23

0.03
0.22

0.02
0.20

0.02

Iraqi Basrah Light


North America
Europe
Pacific

0.40
0.12
0.24

0.36
0.09
0.29

0.29
0.11
0.34

0.21
0.03
0.40

0.41
0.10
0.26

0.31
0.19
0.38

0.21
0.11
0.32

0.01
0.13
0.32

0.31
0.13
0.33

0.32
0.08
0.30

0.35
0.04
0.32

-0.03
0.05
-0.01

Iraqi Kirkuk
North America
Europe
Pacific

0.06
0.31
-

0.03
0.27
-

0.07
0.27
-

0.11
0.21
-

0.07
0.31
-

0.05
0.32
-

0.06
0.26
-

0.03
0.29
-

0.03
0.20
-

0.11
0.28
-

0.06
0.20
-

0.05
0.09
-

Iranian Light
North America
Europe
Pacific

0.15
0.07

0.24
0.04

0.23
0.04

0.24
0.06

0.28
0.03

0.20
0.04

0.21
0.03

0.20
0.02

0.23
0.02

0.18
0.05

0.22
0.02

-0.03
0.03

0.40
0.57

0.49
0.52

0.55
0.51

0.34
0.63

0.59
0.41

0.73
0.51

0.54
0.49

0.58
0.51

0.60
0.48

0.46
0.46

0.43
0.57

0.03
-0.11

Venezuelan Light & Medium


North America
0.39
Europe
0.07
Pacific

0.14
0.02
-

0.18
0.02
-

0.06
0.03
-

0.30
0.01
-

0.24
0.02
-

0.13
0.02
-

0.32
-

0.06
0.05
-

0.13
-

Venezuelan 22 API and heavier


North America
0.75
Europe
0.07
Pacific
-

0.86
0.06
-

0.76
0.05
-

0.89
0.04
-

0.77
0.05
-

0.70
0.06
-

0.69
0.05
-

0.68
0.04
-

0.74
0.05
-

0.64
0.06
-

0.74
0.05
-

-0.10
0.01
-

Mexican Maya
North America
Europe
Pacific

0.93
0.10
-

0.91
0.11
-

0.82
0.12
-

0.82
0.14
-

0.80
0.12
-

0.84
0.12
-

0.84
0.12
-

0.84
0.11
-

0.89
0.11
-

0.78
0.13
-

0.88
0.05
-

-0.10
0.08
-

Mexican Isthmus
North America
Europe
Pacific

0.01
0.01
-

0.04
0.02
-

0.07
0.01
-

0.05
0.01
-

0.08
0.02
-

0.06
0.00
-

0.07
0.01
-

0.07
0.01
-

0.07
-

0.07
0.03
-

0.10
0.02
-

-0.03
0.02
-

Russian Urals
North America
Europe
Pacific

0.15
1.72
-

0.08
1.80
-

0.01
1.69
-

0.01
1.76
-

1.87
-

1.52
-

0.02
1.62
-

0.05
1.57
-

1.64
-

1.66
-

0.02
1.96
-

-0.30
-

Nigerian Light
North America
Europe
Pacific

0.54
0.32
0.00

0.60
0.34
-

0.53
0.46
0.05

0.62
0.40
0.05

0.60
0.40
0.04

0.43
0.54
0.06

0.46
0.48
0.05

0.75
0.39
0.06

0.33
0.51
0.05

0.30
0.56
0.04

0.72
0.42
-

-0.42
0.14
-

Nigerian Medium
North America
Europe
Pacific

0.21
0.13
-

0.25
0.09
-

0.18
0.14
-

0.20
0.14
-

0.18
0.17
-

0.18
0.11
-

0.14
0.13
-

0.17
0.10
-

0.07
0.08
-

0.19
0.22
-

0.23
0.13
-

-0.05
0.10
-

Iranian Heavy
North America
Europe
Pacific

1 Data based on monthly submissions from IEA countries to the crude oil import register (in '000 bbl), subject to availability. May differ from Table 8 of the Report.
IEA North America includes United States and Canada.
IEA Europe includes all countries in OECD Europe except Hungary. The Slovak Republic and Poland is excluded through December 2007 but included thereafter.
IEA Pacific data includes Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Japan.
2 Iraqi Total minus Kirkuk.
3 Iranian Total minus Iranian Light.
4 33 API and lighter (e.g., Bonny Light, Escravos, Qua Iboe and Oso Condensate).

64

14 M ARCH 2012

I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY O IL M ARKET R EPORT

T ABLES

Table 7

Table 7 - Regional OECD Imports

REGIONAL OECD IMPORTS1,2

(thousand barrels per day)


- Refined Product Yields Based on Total
Input

2009
Crude Oil
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD

2010

Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

Year Earlier
Dec-10 % change

2011

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

7353 7343
6703
8893 9072
8996
6082 6249
6369
22329 22663 22067

6571
8857
6645
22072

6928
8846
6086
21860

6793
9331
6255
22379

6519
8943
6493
21955

6825
8804
6217
21846

6381
9193
6436
22010

6347
8841
6824
22012

6324
9263
6659
22536

0%
-5%
2%
-2%

LPG
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD

13
260
529
802

8
270
558
836

8
311
561
879

20
313
569
903

4
284
547
836

4
304
580
888

3
341
546
890

6
344
508
858

2
362
519
882

1
317
612
930

2
323
528
853

-67%
-2%
16%
9%

Naphtha
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD

22
352
841
1215

36
390
900
1326

42
292
876
1210

34
292
917
1243

51
336
830
1217

43
285
906
1234

38
257
853
1147

40
284
809
1133

59
237
898
1194

14
248
854
1116

12
407
837
1257

14%
-39%
2%
-11%

Gasoline
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD

878
193
96
1167

788
174
64
1025

752
216
73
1040

669
223
71
963

981
221
61
1262

703
216
70
989

655
203
90
948

612
193
83
887

749
265
86
1101

606
153
101
860

660
193
62
915

-8%
-20%
62%
-6%

Jet & Kerosene


North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD

62
452
53
567

76
417
40
532

73
398
50
521

62
320
58
440

86
367
43
497

81
451
45
578

64
450
55
569

65
451
65
580

96
554
59
709

31
349
42
423

60
358
45
463

-48%
-3%
-6%
-9%

Gasoil/Diesel
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD

55
1035
87
1177

49
1045
97
1191

33
1001
129
1163

46
1078
99
1224

30
931
153
1114

32
934
123
1089

23
1063
140
1226

5
1155
146
1306

52
1096
117
1266

11
940
156
1107

30
1081
93
1205

-63%
-13%
68%
-8%

Heavy Fuel Oil


North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD

270
534
113
917

277
529
117
923

266
579
146
990

345
505
147
997

304
582
111
997

193
651
156
1001

222
576
169
967

206
657
142
1005

250
548
184
982

211
522
182
915

231
542
102
874

-8%
-4%
79%
5%

Other Products
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD

870
770
325
1964

805
666
335
1807

871
704
326
1901

855
683
383
1921

896
776
252
1924

903
724
343
1970

828
632
327
1787

747
665
316
1728

832
649
301
1782

905
582
364
1851

873
737
362
1972

4%
-21%
1%
-6%

Total Products
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD

2171
3595
2045
7810

2038
3491
2110
7639

2044
3500
2161
7705

2033
3415
2244
7691

2355
3497
1995
7847

1960
3566
2223
7749

1832
3522
2181
7535

1681
3748
2068
7498

2041
3712
2164
7917

1780
3111
2311
7203

1869
3642
2029
7539

-5%
-15%
14%
-4%

9524 9381
8747
12488 12562 12496
8127 8360
8530
30139 30302 29773

8604
12271
8888
29764

9283
12344
8081
29708

8753
12897
8478
30128

8351
12465
8674
29490

8506
12552
8285
29344

8421
12905
8600
29927

8127
11952
9135
29215

8483
12905
8688
30076

-4%
-7%
5%
-3%

Total Oil
North America
Europe
Pacific
Total OECD

1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes and converted to barrels.
2 Excludes intra-regional trade.
3 Includes additives.

14 M ARCH 2012

65

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OECD/IEA 2012

Next Issue: 12 April 2012

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