Energy Efficiency Assignment

No. 1

Assignment Title:

ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS FROM

TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN MALAYSIA
FROM 2005 TO 2030

Edited by:

SAJJAD NAGHAVI

Lecturer:

T.M.I. Mahlia

Academic Year-(Semester):

Session 2007/2008-(Sem. 2)

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Contents

List of Tables 2
List of Figures 3
Abstract 4
Nomenclature 5
1. Introduction 6
1.1. Background 6
1.2. Significance to the study 6
1.3. Scope of the study 6
2. Literature Review 7
2.1. Features of GHGs 7
2.2. Types of GHGs 7
2.3. Summery 8
3. Survey Data 9
4. Methodology 11
4.1. Introduction 11
4.2. Study Procedure 11
4.3. Data Analysis 11
4.4. Summery 12
5. Results and Discussions 15
5.1. Introduction 15
5.2. Finding of the study 15
5.3. Summery 19
6. Conclusions 20
Reference 21

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List of tables

Table 1, Final energy use by transportation sector 9

Table 2, Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types (ktoe) 9

Table 3, emission from fossil fuel per GJ energy use by transportation sector 10

Table 4, predicted data for the years 2005 to 2030- Fuel Type (ktoe) 13

Table 5, emissions produced by fuels 17

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List of Figures

Figure 1, ratio of fuels-all of fuels exist but only 3 of them are visible-unit 14

Figure 2, the curves of Petrleum, Diesel and ATF-unit (ktoe) 14

Figure 3, the curves of Fuel Oil, NG and Electricite-unit (ktoe) 14

Figure 4, demand of energy with today’s policy 15

Figure 5, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2005 16

Figure 6, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2030 16

Figure 7, Pattern of emissions production by transportation in Malaysia 18

Figure 8; grow of CO2 in duration of next 25 years 18

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Abstract
In this report I am going to estimate the increase of consumption energy and the effect
of that on the environment because of producing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and emission of
that in the atmosphere of earth. Emissions in the process of transportation is one of the main
source which produce adverse effects on the environment that influence human health,
organism growth, climatic changes and so on. These data are not exactly correct but we can
calculate approximately from the information of past years. In order to calculate the potential
emissions produced by these activities, the types of fuels use should be identified. This study
attempts to predict the pattern of emissions from 2005 to 2020 due to increaese the mount of
transportation types and numbers. The study found that the petrol,diesel and ATF will
produce huge emissions in this country if doesn’t happen any development in the kind of
engine and new the source of energy like renewable anergy.

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Nomenclature

c, k constant values

Emi total emission for a unit of transportation sector in year i (kg, ton)

TFin Type of Fuel n in year i (ktoe)

EFpn Emission p from fossil Fuel type n (kg/GJ)

x year predicted–year start

y predicted value

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 1. Introduction:

1.1.Background

Increasing the rate of development in the all countries grow the need of transportation
rapidly. It causes the need of energy increase and in order of that the emission of not suitable
gas make greater in amount. Malaysia is one of the developing countries that because of
improving in transportation the rate of the demand of energy is escalading swiftly. In this case
it is very important to know about the influence of this huge amount of energy.

Transportation is the fastest-growing source of GHGs and the largest end-use source of
CO2, NOx, SO2 and CO, which are the most prevalent GHGs Estimates of GHGs emissions
do not include additional "lifecycle" emissions related to transportation, such as the extraction
and refining of fuel and the manufacture of vehicles, which are also a significant source of
domestic and international GHG emissions [2].

The problem that we am going to study is predicting grow of demand of energy in case
of transportation and determination of influence of the GHG emission in our life. So we must
evaluate the trend of GHGs emissions between years of 2005 to 2030. Finally with the
compare of result the strategies that country should consider in the future will obtain.
Although the values of the report for future years are anticipated, they are good estimation to
achieve to the target of this report.

1.2.Significance to the study

As we know about Kyoto Protocol by the United Nation Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCC) in December 1997, which prescribed legally binding GHG
emission target about 5% below their 1990 level, it is necessery to estimate the situation of
demand of energy in this country. About 160 countries including Malaysia now adopt this
protocol and it’s very necessery to analyze the situation of GNGs emissions in the
transportation sector as one of the main source of GNGs emissions.

1.3.Scope of the study

The scope of this study is the data of energy demand and emissions of transportation
sector in previous years and the ratio of different type of fuels consumption in those years.
Next from the charts of data we can extract new data and results.

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 2. Literature Review

2.1. Features of GHGs

GHGs differ in their ability to trap heat. For example, one ton of emissions of CO2
have a different effect than one ton of emissions of methane. As a GHG, it is well known that
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is one of the key reasons for the degradation of the environment. The
concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is observed have been increased rapidly over the past
decades. A common features of this gas is it does not impede the passage of short wave
radiation through the atmosphere, and absorb most of the thermal infrared radiation emitted
from the surface of the earth. This absorbed radiation is re-emitted, both back to the earth and
out to space. The role of the trace gases is analogous to the glass in a greenhouse, and hence
calls this gas as GHG and the temperature rise engender the global greenhouse effect. The
global greenhouse effect may be one of the greatest challenges ever to face humankind[1].

2.2. Types of GHGs

CO2 is a colorless, odorless gas and produced when any form of carbon is burned in
an excess of oxygen. Due to this reason, CO2 greenhouse effect in the world has been
enhanced. This means that the atmosphere is trapping more heat that has to escape to space.
This enhancement has linked the greenhouse effect is causing global warming. CO2 is the
largest contributor of greenhouse effect out of all the gasses produce by human activities.

Emissions of Sulphur oxides are the result of oxidization of the available sulphur in
the fuels. Sulphur oxides are a health hazard and are important contributors to acid rain [3].
These emissions are primarily linked to power plants to generate electricity with coal. The
most important part of the SOx is SO2. This emission could increase significantly, however, if
high-sulphur coal is used to produce alternative transportation fuels such as methanol or
electricity for electric vehicles in the future.

The major source of NOx production from nitrogen-bearing fuels such

as certain coals and oil is the conversion of fuel bound nitrogen to NOx
during combustion. During combustion, the nitrogen bound in the fuel is
released as a free radical and ultimately forms free N2, or NO. Fuel NOx can
contribute as much as 50% of total emissions when combusting oil and as
much as 80% when combusting coal.

Although the complete mechanism is not fully understood, there are two primary paths
of formation. The first involves the oxidation of volatile nitrogen species during the initial
stages of combustion. During the release and prior to the oxidation of the volatiles, nitrogen
reacts to form several intermediaries which are then oxidized into NO. If the volatiles evolve
into a reducing atmosphere, the nitrogen evolved can readily be made to form nitrogen gas,
rather than NOx. The second path involves the combustion of nitrogen contained in the char
matrix during the combustion of the char portion of the fuels. This reaction occurs much more

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slowly than the volatile phase. Only around 20% of the char nitrogen is ultimately emitted as
NOx, since much of the NOx that forms during this process is reduced to nitrogen by the char,
which is nearly pure carbon.

Carbon monoxide, with the chemical formula CO, is a colorless, odorless, and tasteless
gas. It is the product of the partial combustion of carbon-containing compounds, notably in
internal-combustion engines. Carbon monoxide forms in preference to the more usual carbon
dioxide when there is a reduced availability of oxygen present during the combustion process.
Carbon monoxide has significant fuel value, burning in air with a characteristic blue flame,
producing carbon dioxide. Despite its serious toxicity, CO plays a highly useful role in
modern technology, being a precursor to a myriad of products. It consists of one carbon atom
covalently bonded to one oxygen atom.

2.3. Summery

In this chapter we tried to define the title of study completely and with all necessary
pointes that relevant to the subject. It is necessary to describe and understand topic absolutely
before start to carry out it. So we need to define the relation between these parts completely
and make the borders of research obvious.

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 3. Survey Data

The data used for this study are the final energy used by transportation sector data,
types of fuels that were used in previous years and CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from
fossil fuel which use by transportation sector. All of the survey data are shown in Tables 1, 2,
and 3. To change the units of data together we can use this term :{ 1 toe = 10 Gcal = 41.868
GJ}

Total(kt
Year
oe)
1980 2398
1985 3477
1990 5387
1995 7827
1996 8951
1997 10201
1998 9793
1999 11393
2000 12071
2001 13137
2002 13442
(Table 1, Final energy use by transportation sector)

Year petrol diesel ATF fuel oil NG Elect

1980 1296 847 250 - 0 0
1985 2057 1032 386 - 0 0
1990 2889 1826 628 41 0 0
1995 4477 2168 1158 17 5 0
1996 5161 2417 1333 32 4 1
1997 5574 3106 1437 75 5 1
1998 5849 2311 1618 9 4 1
1999 6778 3174 1423 13 0 4
2000 6378 4103 1574 4 7 4
2001 6820 4534 1762 5 14 5.17
2002 6940 4680 1785 4 28 4
(Table 2, Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types (ktoe))

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 Emission
Fuel CO2 SO2 NOx CO
(kg/GJ) (g/GJ) (g/GJ) (g/GJ)
PETR 3490.8
73.00 2.28 1368.76
OL 6
DIES
74.00 2.34 284.55 102.66
EL
ATF 72.00 2.30 310.16 132.06
NG 53.90 0.00 488.00 214.00
(Table 3, CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel per GJ energy use by transportation sector)

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 4. Methodology

4.1.Introduction

This section discusses the methodology of the study. The main purpose of the study is
to demonstrate the visual diagrams of the obtained values. Schwartz [4] states that scenarios
are tools for ordering perceptions about alternative future environments and the end result
might not be an accurate picture of tomorrow, but can give a better decision about the future.

4.2.Study Procedure

This analysis is generally based on modelling methodologies to figure out the potential
emissions from transportation in Malaysia in the future. For this purpose, firstly, the energy
demand and types of fuels use in transportation sector should be recognized. Some of the data
are already available but other data have to be calculated with admiration to the country
energy consumption trend. The method used to estimate the rest of the calculation data is
polynomial curve fitting. The method is an attempt to describe the relationship between
variable x as a function of available data and a response y, which seeks to find some smooth
curve that best fits the data, but does not necessarily pass through any data points.
Mathematically, a polynomial of order k in x is expressed in the following form [5]:
(1)

The common gases include CO2, SO2, NOx and CO. The emission pattern of
transportation can be calculated by the following equation:
EMi = (TFi1 * EFp1+ TFi2 * EFp2+ TFi3 * EFp3+...+ TFin * EFpn) (2)

Whit these two initially equations the needed data can be extracted.

4.3.Data Analysis

There are three types of data to be analysed for instance energy demand data,
consumption of different fuels and amount of GHGs emissions from each fuel. Demand of
energy data is from about 3 decade ago till now, so I must anticipate future demand of energy
with considering to the previous data. Based on the data shown in Table 1, using Eq. (1), the
total energy demand in Malaysia from the year 2005 to 2030 can be predicted by the
following equation:
Y1 = -77.15x2 + 2033.x + 261.7 R² = 0.983 (3)

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 Based on the data shown in Table 2, using Eq. (1), the fuel use in transportation of
Malaysia from the year 2005 to 2030 can be predicted. The amount of petroleum used for
transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following equation:
Y2 = 6.286x2 + 139.3x + 1204. R² = 0.979 (4)

The amount of diesel used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the

following equation:
Y3 = 10.66x2 - 73.24x + 1015. R² = 0.918 (5)

The amount of ATF used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the

following equation:
Y4 = 1.575x2 + 40.72x + 194.4 R² = 0.968 (6)

The amount of fuel oil used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by the
following equation:
Y5 = -0.320x2 + 7.591x - 9.638 R² = 0.346 (7)

The amount of Natural gas (NG) used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted
by the following equation:
Y6 = 0.101x2 - 1.563x + 2.550 R² = 0.613 (8)

The amount of electronic engine used in transportation in Malaysia can be predicted

by the following equation:
Y7 = 0.025x2 - 0.359x + 0.458 R² = 0.821 (9)

The results of the predicted data based on Eqs. (3) to (9) from the years 2005 to 2030
are tabulayed in Table (4) and ilustrated in figure (1). Figure (2) and (3) show the curves of
fuels but they shown in two separate figure because the masure of the values of them have big
diffrent and if they shown in one figure the flactuation of them are not visible. The fuel
amount trend will be used to predict future potential emissions. The emissions produced from
fuel burden for trasportation is calculated in terms of (ktoe) that is a type of unit of energy.

4.4.Summery

In this chapter we defined the method of calculations of this study and we found
the procedure of carrying out extracting new data from limited data
for past. Responds of these equation are our source to obtain
appropriate conclusion for this study.

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Year Total Petrol Diesel ATF Fuel oil NG Elect
2005 16664.75 8615.25 5846.5 2196.775 0 26.6 7.108
2006 17710.96 9075.136 6316.92 2317.82 0 30.188 8.024
2007 18793.79 9547.594 6808.66 2442.015 0 33.978 8.99
2008 19913.24 10032.62 7321.72 2569.36 0 37.97 10.006
2009 21069.31 10530.23 7856.1 2699.855 0 42.164 11.072
2010 22262 11040.4 8411.8 2833.5 0 46.56 12.188
2011 23491.31 11563.15 8988.82 2970.295 0 51.158 13.354
2012 24757.24 12098.46 9587.16 3110.24 0 55.958 14.57
2013 26059.79 12646.35 10206.8 3253.335 0 60.96 15.836
2014 27398.96 13206.82 10847.8 3399.58 0 66.164 17.152
2015 28774.75 13779.85 11510.1 3548.975 0 71.57 18.518
2016 30187.16 14365.46 12193.7 3701.52 0 77.178 19.934
2017 31636.19 14963.63 12898.7 3857.215 0 82.988 21.4
2018 33121.84 15574.38 13624.9 4016.06 0 89 22.916
2019 34644.11 16197.71 14372.5 4178.055 0 95.214 24.482
2020 36203 16833.6 15141.4 4343.2 0 101.63 26.098
2021 37798.51 17482.07 15931.6 4511.495 0 108.248 27.764
2022 39430.64 18143.1 16743.2 4682.94 0 115.068 29.48
2023 41099.39 18816.71 17576 4857.535 0 122.09 31.246
2024 42804.76 19502.9 18430.2 5035.28 0 129.314 33.062
2025 44546.75 20201.65 19305.7 5216.175 0 136.74 34.928
2026 46325.36 20912.98 20202.5 5400.22 0 144.368 36.844
2027 48140.59 21636.87 21120.7 5587.415 0 152.198 38.81
2028 49992.44 22373.34 22060.1 5777.76 0 160.23 40.826
2029 51880.91 23122.39 23020.9 5971.255 0 168.464 42.892
2030 53806 23884 24003 6167.9 0 176.9 45.008
(Table 4, predicted data for the years 2005 to 2030- Fuel Type (ktoe) )

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(Figure 1, ratio of fuels-all of fuels exist but only 3 of them are visible-unit (ktoe))

(Figure 2, the curves of Petrleum, Diesel and ATF-unit (ktoe))

(Figure 3, the curves of Fuel Oil, NG and Electricite-unit (ktoe))

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 5. Results and Discussions

5.1.Introduction

After extracting new data from the primary data now must discuss about them and
obtain useful information from them to fide what we should do in the future. Energy demand,
fuels types and emissions are three objects that are important to consider in this study.

5.2.Finding of the study

If we look to the table (4) and suppose to grow up of the consumption of energy in the
future years it is obviously this huge amount of energy which use consume just in
transportation has some very unsuitable efficiency on the environment and human. If today’s
policy continue in future the demand of energy for transportation sector increase about 3
times-from 16664 (ktoe) in 2005 to 53806 (ktoe) in 2030. The diagram of energy demand
shown in fig. (4). As it is shown the slope of increasing of energy demand is approximately
constant and we know the best way to decrease this slope is optimising the consumption of
energy. It folloes that a deep change must accure in the model of consuming energy in this
country.

(Figure 4, demand of energy with today’s policy)

In these days the fuels are used by the transportation devices consist of 6 types but
only three types of them are major-Petroleum and Diesel. This study show till 2030 the
consumption of petroleum increase 3 times in compare of 2005 and consumption of diesel
grow about 5 times. One of the most important pointes that we can find from the Table (4) is

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the proportion of fuels and variation of them in duration of these 25 years. In figure (1) we
can see that composition of fuels in system of transportation in Malaysia is consist of three
item; Petroleum, Diesel and ATF. If we compare the proportion of fuels in stage of 2005 and
stage of 2030 we find that the pattern of consumption of fuels is not different, just we can see
the percentage of using Diesel increase and eight percent decrease in using petroleum (As we
can see in the figure (5) and (6)). It is very important that the government change the business
as usual policy to a new and developed policy by using new technologies of engine for
vehicles and other part of transportation sector such as Hybrid engine and Fuel cell and
electrical engine. Because we are confident that this amount of fuels will not be available in
those years so cost of them will be too high-priced for any country like Malaysia.

(Figure 5, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2005)

(Figure 6, proportion of consumption of fuels in 2030)

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 GHGs emissions are the product of combustion in the engine of motorcycles, vehicles,
airplanes, locomotives and etc. By using table (2) and (3) the amount of emissions that
produce from the fuels in sector of transportation is calculated. Table (5) show the predicted
values of four GHGs from 2005 to 2030. As a result of this table we find the amount of CO2
has big variation with other gases and the mortal effect of that is more than others. The
variations of emissions are shown in figure (7).

On the other hand this huge amount of emissions just in the transportation sector is
not acceptable for today and it is worth for near future. The other gases like SO2 are so
destroyer. So it’s one potential for acid rain. New policy is necessary for whole of the
countries that have similar transportation system like Malaysia.

Year r CO2 (kton) SO2 (kton) NOx (kton) CO (kton)

1.60673317 592.439053
2005 51127.35062 1296.67841
2 7
54363.3865 626.043392
2006 1.70837722 1366.61656
8 1
57713.8529 1.81361345 660.667226
2007 1438.50304
8 7 3
1.92244188 696.310556
2008 61178.7498 1512.33784
3 1
64758.0770 2.03486249 732.973381
2009 1588.12098
5 8 6
68451.8347 2.15087530 770.655702
2010 1665.85244
2 2 9
72260.0228 2.27048029 809.357519
2011 1745.53223
3 5 8
76182.6413 2.39367747 849.078832
2012 1827.16035
6 7 5
80219.6903 2.52046684 889.819640
2013 1910.7368
1 8 9
2.65084840 931.579944
2014 84371.1697 1996.26157
8 9
88637.0795 2.78482215 974.359744
2015 2083.73467
1 7 7
93017.4197 2.92238809
2016 1018.15904 2173.15611
5 5
97512.1904 3.06354622 1062.97783
2017 2264.52586
2 2 1
102121.391 3.20829653
2018 1108.816118 2357.84395
5 8
3.35663904
2019 106845.023 1155.673901 2453.11037
3
2020 111683.085 3.50857373 1203.551179 2550.32511

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 7
1252.44795
2021 116635.5774 3.66410062 2649.48819
3
121702.500 3.82321969 1302.36422
2022 2750.59959
2 1 3
126883.853 3.98593095 1353.29998
2023 2853.65932
4 2 9
4.15223440
2024 132179.637 1405.25525 2958.66737
2
4.32213004 1458.23000
2025 137589.8511 3065.62376
1 7
4.49561786 1512.22425
2026 143114.4956 3174.52847
9 9
148753.570 4.67269788 1567.23800
2027 3285.38151
6 6 8
154507.075 4.85337009 1623.27125
2028 3398.18288
9 2 2
5.03763448 1680.32399
2029 160375.0117 3512.93258
6 2
1738.39622
2030 166357.378 5.22549107 3629.63061
7
(Table 5, emissions produced by fuels)

(Figure 7, Pattern of emissions production by transportation in Malaysia)

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 (Figure 8; grow of CO2 in duration of next 25 years)

From the figure (8) it is shown that the carbon dioxide increase is a function of the
energy consumption multiplied by the percentage of fuel mix on and the amount of carbon
dioxide emitted by the fossil fuel from every unit of energy consumption in transportation
sector. The potential CO2 reduction by gradually introducing fuel substitutions for
transportation machines is only way to decrease the greenhouse effects on environment.

5.3.Summery

In this chapter all need data extract from the primary data. These data which were
about the energy demand in transportation sector and the fuel types and emissions from fuels
are used to illustrate the situation of future in transportation and huge effect of GHGs
emissions.

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 6. Conclusions

By evaluating the various data of consuming energy by transportation systems and

effects of that we are able to plan and develop new policy for future system of transportation.
It is very important for us to think about the future world, our environment and health of
human.

Emissions from transportation sector make up one of the largest emissions for the
country. Government intervention to abate these emissions is urgently needed now. The study
also shows that switching from transportation fossil fuel to renewable fuel such as Fuel cell
and Hybrid engines offers a solution and multiple benefits to the utilities, society and most
importantly to protect the environment. The Malaysian government has to find ways to reduce
these emissions, such as by introducing emissions taxation which can be used to finance
renewable energy research projects or to replant trees in the rain forest of the country. The
data from the study can be used as a basis for calculating cost benefit analysis for
implementation of new renewable technologies for transportation and developing an emission
abatement program in Malaysia.

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References:

1. T.M.I. Mahlia,(2001) Emissions from electricity generation in Malaysia, Renewable

Energy 27 (2002) 293–300.
2. Deborah Gordon, Steering a New Course: Transportation, Energy, and the
Environment,NY, Dorling Kindersley, 1998.
3. NOx Removal. Branch Environmental Corp. Retrieved on 2007-12-26.
4. Schwartz P. The art of the long view: planning in an uncertain world. New York:
Doubleday, 1996.
5. Klienbaum DG. Applied regression analysis and other multivariable methods. USA: ITP
Co., 1998.

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