1

Probability
DEFINITION : PROBABILITY
Suppose an event E can happen in m ways out of a total of n possible equally likely ways.
Then the probability of occurrences of the event (called its success) is denoted by
p = P(E) =
m
n
.
The probability of non-occurrence of the event (called its failure) is denoted by
q = P(not E) = 1
m
n
= 1 p.
The event not E is denoted by E or E
C
.
Note. If p is the probability that an event will occur, the odds in favour of its happening are p : q
(read p to q) ; the odd against its happening are q : p. Thus the odds against a 3 or 4 in a single toss
of fair die are q : p =
2 1
:
3 3
= 2 : 1 ; i.e., 2 to 1.
LIMITATIONS OF CLASSICAL DEFINITION
This definition breaks down in the following cases.
(i) If the various out comes of the trial are not equally likely or equally probable.
(ii) If the exhaustive number of cases in a trial is infinite.
For this reason a statistical definition of probability is followed in some situation.
STATISTICAL PROBABILITY
If in n trials an event E happens m times, then the probability p of the happening of E is
given by
p = P(E) = lim
n
m
n
.
Permutation. A permutation of n different objects taken r at a time is arrangement of r
out of n objects with attention given to the order of the arrangement. The number of permu-
tations of n objects taken r at a time is
nP
r
= n(n 1)(n 2) ... (n r + 1) =
!
( ) !
n
n r
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
2 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
In particular
nP
n
= n(n 1)(n 2) ... 2.1 = n !.
Example. The number of permutations of the letters a, b, c taken two at a time is 3P
2
= 3
2 = 6. These are ab, ba, ac, ca, bc, cb.
Note. The number of permutations of n objects, in which n
1
are alike, n
2
are alike, ... is
1 2
!
! ! ...
n
n n
, where n = n
1
+ n
2
+ ...
Example. The number of permutations of letters in the word STATISTICS is
10 !
3 ! 3 ! 2 !
.
Combinations. A combination of n different objects taken r at a time is a selection of r
out of n objects with attention not given to order of arrangements. It is denoted by nC
r
(or)
C(n, r) or
n
r
_

,
and
nC
r
=
( 1) ... ( 1) !
! ! ( ) !
n n n r n
r r n r
+

n
r
_

,
is called binomial coefficient.
Fundamental rule. If an operation can be performed in m different ways and after this is
done in any one way, a second operation can be performed in n different ways, then both
operations can be performed in m n different ways.
USEFUL FORMULAE CONNECTING BINOMIAL COEFFICIENTS
(i)
m
C
n
= 0 if m < n or n < 0
(ii)
m
C
n
=
(m1)
C
(n1)
+
(m1)
C
n
, 0 n m
(iii)
m
C
n
=
(m1)
C
(n1)
+
(m2)
C
(n1)
+ ... +
n
C
(n1)
+
n
C
n
.
=
1
1
m
k n

k
C
n1
(iv) (a + b)
n
=

0
n
r
n
C
r
a
nr
b
r
(v)
m
C
n
=
0
k
j

k
C
j

(mk)
C
(nj)
,
where k and n are positive integers such that k n.
1. A bag contains 4 red, 5 white, 6 black balls. What is the probability that 2 balls drawn
are red and white ?
Solution. Out of 15 balls, 2 balls can be drawn in 15C
2
ways. Out of 4 red balls 1 ball is
drawn in 4C
1
ways and out of 5 white ball, 1 ball is chosen in 5C
1
ways. Hence the total
number of favourable cases is 4C
1
5C
1
. The required probability is
1 1
2
4 5
15
C C
C

.
Probability 3
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
Some Properties of Probability
1. P() = 0, where is an empty set.
2. P(S) = 1, where S is a sample space.
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P(A B) = P(A) + P(B).
Theorems. 1. Let E be any event. Then P(E
C
) = 1 P(E), where E
C
is the complement of E.
2. Let E
1
, E
2
be events such that E
1
E
2
. Then P(E
2
E
1
) = P(E
2
) P(E
1
).
3. Addition theorem. Let E
1
, E
2
be events. Then P(E
1
E
2
) = P(E
1
) + P(E
2
) P(E
1
E
2
).
4. If {E
n
} is a sequence of events such that E
1
E
2
..., then
P
1
Lim ( )
n n
n n
E P E

_


,
.
5. If {F
n
} is a sequence of events such that F
1
F
2
... then
P

_


,
1
Lim ( )
n n
n n
F P F .
6. Booles inequality. Let E
1
, E
2
, ... be sequence of events, then
P
1
1
( )
n n
n
n
E P E

_


,

.
Independent events. Let E
1
, E
2
be two events. Then E
1
, E
2
are said to be independent
events if
P(E
1
E
2
) = P(E
1
) P(E
2
).
Mutually exclusive events. E
1
, E
2
, ... E
n
are said to be mutually exclusive if E
i
E
j
= ,
for i j.
Theorem 1. If E
1
and E
2
are independent and mutually exclusive events then either P(E
1
)
= 0 or P(E
2
) = 0.
2. If E
1
and E
2
are independent events, then E
1
and E
2
C
are also independent.
Independence of More than 2 events
Mutual independence. Let C = {E
i
: i I} be a collection of events. These events are said to
be mutually independent if for every non-empty subset E
1
, E
2
, ..., E
n
,
P(E
1
E
2
... E
n
) = P(E
1
) P(E
2
) ... P(E
n
).
Pair wise Independence. Let C = {E
i
: i I} be a collection of events. These events are
said to be pair wise independent if
P( ) ( ) . ( )
k j k j
i i i i
E E P E P E
for each pair (i
k
, i
j
), where i
k
, i
j
I, and i
k
i
j
.
Note. Mutual independence of events implies pair wise independence of events. The converse is not
true.
Conditional Probability. Let E and F be events such that P(F) 0. The conditional
probability of E given F, denoted by P(E/F) is defined as
P(E/F) =
( )
( )
P E F
P F

.
4 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
Theorems. E and F are independent events if and only if P(E/F) = P(E), provided P(F) > 0.
Multiplication Theorem. If E and F are events such that P(F) > 0, then
P(E F) = P(F) . P(E/F).
Theorem. (Law of Total Probability).
Let E
1
, E
2
, ... E
n
be a collection of events such that P(E
i
) > 0, for each i,
P

,
1
n
i
i
E = 1 and E
i
E
j
= , for i j.
Let F be an event. Then
P(F) =

1
( / ) ( )
n
i i
i
P F E P E .
Theorem. (Law of Compound probability).
Let E
1
, E
2
, ..., E
n
be events, such that
P(E
1
E
2
... E
n
) > 0.
Then P(E
1
E
2
... E
n
) = P(E
1
) . P(E
2
/E
1
) . P(E
3
/E
1
E
2
) ... P(E
n
/E
1
E
2
... E
n1
).
Bayes Theorem. Let E
1
, E
2
, ... E
n
be a collection of events such that P(E
i
) > 0, for all i,
P
1
n
i
i
E

,
= 1, E
i
E
j
= , for i j. Let F be an event such that P(F) > 0. Then
P(E
k
/F) =

1
( / ) . ( )
( / ) ( )
k k
n
i i
i
P F E P E
P F E P E
, k = 1, 2, ... n.
Theorem. Let E
1
, E
2
, ... E
n
be a collection of mutually independent events. Then
(a) the probability of the occurrence of atleast one of the events E
i
is given by
1
1
(1 ( ))
n
i
i
P E

(b) the probability of the occurrence of exactly one event, say E

i
is
P(E
i
)
1
(1 ( ))
n
k
k
k i
P E

.
Proof. (a)
1
n
i
i
E

denotes the occurrence of atleast one of the events E

1
, E
2
, ..., E
n
. Then,
using De Morgans law,
p

1
_ _ 1
1
1
1
, , ]
]
1 1 1
1 1
C
n n n
c
i i i
i i i
E P E P E
= 1
1
( )
n
C
i
i
P E

, since E
i
C
are mutually independent events.
Probability 5
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
(b) The occurrence of exactly one event E
i
corresponds to occurrence of E
i
and non
occurrence of each of the remaining events. So
P(E
i
E
1
C
E
2
C
... E
i1
C
E
i+1
C
... E
n
C
)
= P(E
i
)

1
( )
n
C
k
k
k i
P E
= P(E
i
)
1
(1 ( )
n
k
k
k i
P E

).
Examples
1. What is the probability of getting two heads in two flips of a balanced coin.
Solution. Since the probability of head is
1
2
for each flip, and two flips are independent,
the probability is
1 1 1
2 2 4

.
2. What is the probability of not rolling any 6s in four rolls of a balanced die?
Solution. The probability is
5 5 5 5 625
6 6 6 6 1296

.
3. For the binary communication system
0.9
0.9
0.1
0.1
y = 0
y = 1
x = 0, P(x = 0) =
1
2
x = 1, P(x = 1) =
1
2
Fig. 1.1
Find P(Y = 0) and P(Y = 1),
Solution. P(Y = 0) = P[Y = 0/X = 0] P(X = 0) + P[Y = 0/X = 1] P(X = 1)
= (0.9)(0.5) + (0.1)(0.5) = 0.5
P(Y = 1) = 1 P(Y = 0) = 0.5.
SOLVED PROBLEMS
1. Out of 50 students in a class, what is the probability of a single student to opt for a
picnic.
Solution. P (event of a single student opt for a picnic) =
1
50
= .02
2. What is the probability of obtaining two heads in two throws of a single coin?
Solution. The probability of obtaining a head in the first throw is
1
2
. The probability of
6 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
obtaining a head in the second throw is also
1
2
(it is not affected by the first throw of
the coin). Two throws being independent, the probability of obtaining head in both
throws is the product of probability of obtaining a head in the first throw and the
probability of obtaining a head in the second throw. Hence the required probability is
1 1 1
2 2 4

.
3. Find the probability of drawing two red balls in succession from a bag containing 3 red
and 6 black balls when
(i) the ball that is drawn first is replaced,
(ii) it is not replaced.
Solution. Let A
1
be the event that the first ball drawn is red and A
2
be the event that
the second ball drawn is red.
(i) If the first ball drawn is replaced, the events are independent. Then
P (A
1
A
2
) = P (A
1
) P (A
2
) =
3 3 1
9 9 9
.
(ii) If the first ball is not replaced after taking a red ball the bag will contain only 8 balls
out of which 2 are red. The events are not independent. Therefore
P (A
1
A
2
) = P (A
1
) P (A
2
/A
1
) =
3 6 2
9 8 72

.
4. What is the probability of picking an ace and a king from a deck of 52 cards.
Solution. Let A be the event of picking an ace and B be the event of picking a king.
Probability of picking ace and king
= Probability of picking an ace first and a king second + probability of picking a king
first and an ace second
= P(A) P (B/A) + P (B) P(A/B)
=
8 4 4 4 4
52 51 52 51 663
+
.
5. A fair coin is tossed 5 times. What is the probability of having atleast one head?
Solution. The probability of getting no head in 5 tosses of a coin is given by P(A)
=
5
1 1
2 32
_

,
. Hence, the probability of getting atleast one head is given by
P(A
c
) = P(S) P(A) = 1
31 1
32 32
.
6. Prove that if P(A) > P(B), then P(A/B) > P(B/A).
Solution. P(A/B) =
( )
( )
P A B
P B

implies P(B) =
( )
( / )
P A B
P A B

P(B/A) =
( )
( )
P A B
P A

implies P(A) =
( )
( / )
P A B
P B A

If P(A) > P(B), then

( ) ( )
( / ) ( / )
P A B P A B
P B A P A B

> and hence P(A/B) > P(B/A).
Probability 7
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
7. One card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards. What is the probability of the card being
either red or a king?
Solution. Let A represents an event that the card drawn is red and B represents that
the card drawn is king. For a card to be either red or a king, it is required to find the
probability of A B. Now
P(A) =
26 1
52 2
; P(B) =
4 1
52 13

.
There are two red coloured king cards. So
P(A B) =
2 1
52 26

Therefore, P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) =

7 1 1 1
2 13 26 13
+ .
8. A bag contains 12 balls numbered from 1 to 12. If a ball is taken at random, what is the
probability of having a ball with a number which is a multiple of either 2 or 3.
Solution. Let A be an event that the ball number is a multiple of 2 and B be an event
that the ball number is a multiple of 3. Then
A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12}, B = {3, 6, 9, 12}, A B = {6, 12}
P(A) =
6 1
12 2

; P(B) =
4 1
12 3
, P(A B) =
1 1
12 6
.
Hence
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) =
1 1 1 4 2
2 3 6 6 3
+ .
9. If two events A and B are independent, show that
(i) A
C
and B
C
are independent
(ii) A
C
and B are independent
(iii) A and B
C
are independent.
Solution. Given A and B are independent. So
(i) P(A B) = P(A) P(B)
Now P(A
C
B
C
) = P((A B)
C
) = 1 P(A B)
= 1 [P(A) + P(B) P(A B)] = 1 [P(A) + P(B) P(A) P(B)]
= [1 P(B)] P(A) [1 P(B)] = (1 P(B)) (1 P(A)) = P(B
C
) P(A
C
)
Hence A
C
and B
C
are independent.
A

B
A
C

B
A

B
C
S
A B
Fig. 1.3
8 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
(ii) We know (A
C
B) (A B) = B. Hence by addition theorem
P(A
C
B) = P(B) P(A B), as (A
C
B) and (A B)
are mutually exclusive. Now
P(A
C
B) = P(B) P(A B) = P(B) P(A) P(B)
= P(B) (1 P(A)) = P(B) P(A
C
)
Hence A
C
and B are independent.
(iii) P(A B
C
) = P(A) P(A B) = P(A) P(A) P(B)
= P(A) (1 P(B)) = P(A) P(B
C
)
Hence A and B
C
are independent.
10. If B A, prove that P(A B
C
) = P(A) P(B).
Solution. B (A B
C
) = A. Here B and A B
C
are
mutually exclusive. Hence by addition theorem of prob-
ability we have
P(B) + P(A B
C
) = P(A)
Hence P(A B
C
) = P(A) P(B).
11. For any two events A and B show that
P(A B) P(A) P(A B) P(A) + P(B).
Solution. By the Venn diagram it is clear that A B
C
and
A B are two disjoint event such that
(A B
C
) (A B) = A. Hence P(A B
C
) + P(A B)
= P(A). Since P(A B
C
) 0, P(A) P(A B).
We know that P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B). Since
P(B) P(A B), P(B) P(A B) 0. Hence P(A B)
P(A). Also since P(A B) 0, P(A B) P(A) + P(B).
Hence
P(A B) P(A) P(A B) P(A) + P(B).
12. Prove that for any event A in S,
P(A A
C
) = 0.
Solution. We know P(S) = 1 and A A
C
= S. Hence
1 = P(S) = P(A A
C
) = P(A) + P(A
C
) P(A A
C
)
1 = P(A) + (1 P(A)) P(A A
C
)
1 = 1 P(A A
C
)
P(A A
C
) = 0.
13. Given P(A) =
1
3
, P(B) =
1
4
, P(A B) =
1
6
, find the following probabilities
P(A
C
), P(A
C
B), P(A
C
B
C
).
Solution. P(A
C
) = 1 P(A) = 1
1 2
3 3

P(A
C
B) = P(A
C
) + P(B) P(A
C
B) = P(A
C
) + P(B) [P(B) P(A B)]
= P(A
C
) + P(A B) =
5 2 1
3 6 6
+
.
B
A S
A B
C
Fig. 1.4
A

B
C
A

B
A
C

B
A B
S
Fig. 1.5
Probability 9
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
P(A
C
B
C
) = P((A B)
C
) = 1 P(A B) = 1 [P(A) + P(B) P(A B)]
= 1
7 1 1 1
3 4 6 12
1
+
1
]
.
14. Suppose from a pack of 52 cards one card is drawn at random what is the probability
that it is either a king or a queen.
Solution. Since the events are mutually exclusive (if a card is a king it cannot be a
queen and vice versa) the probability of drawing a king is
4
52
and similarly drawing a
queen is
4
52
. Hence the probability of drawing a king K or a queen Q is
P(K Q) = P(K) + P(Q) =
4 4 2
52 52 13
+ .
15. One ticket is drawn at random from a bag containing 30 tickets numbered from 1 to 30.
Find the probability that it is a multiple of 5 or 7.
Solution. One ticket can be drawn out of 30 in 30C
1
ways. The multiples of 5 are 5, 10,
15, 20, 25, 30 and multiples of 7 are 7, 14, 21, 28. Hence there are 6 multiples of 5 and 4
multiples of 7. None of these are common. So the events are mutually exclusive. The
probability of having a multiple of 5 or 7 is
6 10 4 1
30 30 30 3
+ .
16. The probability that A will live upto 60 years is
3
4
and probability that B will live upto
60 years is
2
3
. What is the probability that both A and B will live upto sixty years.
Solution. P(A B) = P(A) P(B) =
3 2 1
4 3 2

.
Hence the probability that both A and B will live upto sixty year is
1
2
.
17. Find the probability of drawing two kings from a pack of cards in two successive draws,
the card drawn not being replaced.
Solution. The probability of drawing a king in the first draw is
4
52
. The probability of
drawing a king in the second draw, given that the first draw has already given a king is
3/51. The combined probability of two events is
3 4 1
52 51 221
.
18. A bag contains 3 red and 4 white balls. Two draws are made without replacement; what
is the probability that both the balls are red.
10 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
Solution. Probability of drawing a red ball in the first draw is P(A) =
3
7
. Probability of
drawing a red ball in the second draw given that the first ball drawn is red is P(B/A) =
2
6
(since only six balls are left and only two out of them are red). The combined probability
of the two events are
P(A B) = P(A) P(B/A) =
3 2 1
7 6 7

.
19. Three coins are tossed simultaneously. What is the probability that they will fall two
heads and one tail.
Solution. The probability P of getting a head is
1
2
. Now, the probability that out of 3
coins getting exactly 2 heads and one tail is
3C
2
P
2
Q = 3
_


,
1 1 1 3
1
2 2 2 8
,
where Q denotes the probability of getting a tail and is Q = 1 P.
20. If A and B are mutually exclusive event, prove that P(A/B
C
) =
( )
1 ( )
P A
P B
.
Solution. P(A/B
C
) =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 ( ) 1 ( )
( )
C C
C
P A B P A B P A P A B
P B P B
P B



Since A and B are mutually exclusive, P(A B) = 0.
Hence P(A/B
C
) =
( )
1 ( )
P A
P B
.
21. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events P(A B) 0, prove that
P(A/A B) =
( )
( ) ( )
P A
P A P B +
.
Solution. P(A/A B) =
( ( )) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
P A A B P A
P A B P A P B P A B

+
=
( )
( ) ( )
P A
P A P B +
since P(A B) = 0.
22. If A and B are two independent events, show that
P(A B) = 1 P(A
C
) P(B
C
).
Solution. P(A B) = 1 P(A B)
C
= 1 P(A
C
B
C
)
= 1 P(A
C
) P(B
C
),
since if A and B are independent, A
C
and B
C
are also independent.
23. Box 1 contains 1 white and 999 red balls. Box 2 contains 1 red and 999 white balls. A
ball is picked from a randomly selected box. If the ball is red, what is the probability
that it came from box 1?
Probability 11
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
Solution. Let A be the event that a ball picked is red and A
i
be the event that i
th
box is
selected (i = 1, 2)
P(A/A
1
) =
999
1000
and P(A/A
2
) =
1
1000
and P(A
i
) =
1
2
. Hence by Bayes theorem
P(A
1
/A) =
1 1
2
1
999 1
( ) ( / )
2 1000 999
1000 999 1 1
( / ) ( )
1000 1000 2
i i
i
P A P A A
P A A P A

_
+

,

.
Hence the required probability is
999
1000
.
24. Let A and B be boxes that contain 5 black, 6 white; 8 black, 4 white balls respectively.
Two balls are transferred from B to A and then a ball is drawn from A.
(a) What is the probability that this ball is white?
(b) Given that the ball drawn is white, what is the probability that atleast one white
ball was transferred to A?
Solution. Let E
1
be the event that a white ball is drawn from A.
E
2
be the event that two white balls are transferred from B.
E
3
be the event that one white ball and one black ball are transferred from B.
E
4
be the event that two black balls are transferred from B. Then
P(E
1
) = P(E
2
) P(E
1
/E
2
) + P(E
3
) P(E
1
/E
3
) + P(E
4
) P(E
1
/E
4
)
=
2 1 1 2
2 2 2
4 8 4 8
8 7 6
12 13 12 13 12 13
C C C C
C C C

+ +
=
6 8 32 7 28 6 136
66 13 66 13 66 13 429
+ +
.
25. A box contains 2000 components of which 5% are defective. Second box contains 500
components of which 40% are defective. Two other boxes contain 1000 components each
with 10% defective components. We select at random one of the above boxes and remove
from it at random a single component.
(i) What is the probability that this component is defective?
(ii) Finding that the selected component is defective, what is the probability that it was
drawn from box 2?
Solution. Let A
i
be the event of selecting i
th
box. B be the event consisting of all
defective components. Therefore, we have
P(A
1
) = P(A
2
) = P(A
3
) = P(A
4
) =
1
4
P(B/A
1
) =
100
2000
= 0.05
P(B/A
2
) =
200
500
= 0.4
12 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
P(B/A
3
) =
100
1000
= 0.1
P(B/A
4
) =
100
1000
= 0.1
Probability that the component is defective is given by
P(B) = P(A
1
) P(B/A
1
) + P(A
2
) P(B/A
2
) + P(A
3
) P(B/A
3
) + P(A
4
) P(B/A
4
)
=
1
4
0.05 +
1
4
0.4 +
1
4
0.1 +
1
4
0.1 = 0.1625.
26. Of three independent events, the probability of first only happening is
1
4
, the probability
of second only happening is
1
8
, and the probability that only third happens is
1
12
. Find
the marginal probability of each event.
Solution. Let A, B, C be events. Then
P(A B
C
C
C
) = P(A) P(B
C
) P(C
C
) =
1
4
P(A
C
B C
C
) = P(A
C
) P(B) P(C
C
) =
1
8
P(A
C
B
C
C) = P(A
C
) P(B
C
) P(C) =
1
12
Let P(A
C
) = x, P(B
C
) = y, P(C
C
) = z. Then
(1 x) yz =
1
4
; xz (1 y) =
1
8
; xy (1 z) =
1
12
By remainder theorem, we get the solution of x as
1
2
. Therefore yz =
1
2
and z (1 y)
=
1
4
implies z =
3
4
, y =
2
3
. Hence
P(A) = 1 P(A
C
) =
1
2
P(B) = 1 P(B
C
) = 1
2 1
3 3

P(C) = 1 P(C
C
) = 1
3 1
4 4
.
27. It is given that P(A B) =
5
6
, P(A B) =
1
3
and P(B
C
) =
1
2
. Show that the events A and
B are independent.
Solution. P(B) = 1 P(B
C
) = 1
1 1
2 2
.
Now P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

5
6
= P(A) +
1 1
2 3

Probability 13
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
P(A) =
5 1 1 2
6 3 2 3
+
Hence P(A) P(B) =
2 1 1
3 2 3

= P(A B). So A and B are independent.
28. A box contains four tickets with numbers 112, 121, 211, 222 and one ticket is drawn. Let
A
i
(i = 1, 2, 3) be the event that the i
th
digit of the number of tickets drawn is 1. Discuss
the independent of the events A
1
, A
2
, A
3
.
Solution.
P(A
1
) =
1
2
; P(A
3
) =
1
2
; P(A
1
A
2
A
3
) = 0
P(A
2
) =
1
2
; P(A
1
A
2
) =
1
4
P(A
1
A
3
) =
1
4
; P(A
2
A
3
) =
1
4
P(A
1
) P(A
2
) =
1
4
; P(A
1
) P(A
3
) =
1
4
; P(A
2
) P(A
3
) =
1
4
.
Hence events are pairwise independent. Now P(A
1
) P(A
2
) P(A
3
) =
1
8
. But P(A
1
A
2
A
3
)
= 0. Hence P(A
1
) P(A
2
) P(A
3
) P(A
1
A
2
A
3
) and so A
1
, A
2
, A
3
cannot be simultane-
ously independent.
29. A man has three coins A, B and C, A is unbiased; the probability that a head will result
when B is tossed is
2
3
; the probability that a head will result when C is tossed is
1
3
. If
one of the coins chosen at random is tossed three times giving a total of two heads and
one tail, find
(i) the probability that the chosen coin was A
(ii) the probability that a fourth toss of the same coin will give a head.
Solution. Let D denote the probability of giving two heads and one tail. Then
P(D/A) = 3C
2

2
3 1 1
2 2 8
_

,
P(D/B) = 3C
2

2
2 1 4
3 3 9
_

,
P(D/C) = 3C
2

2
1 2 2
3 3 9
_

,
(i) P(A/D) =
( ) ( / )
( ) ( / ) ( ) ( / ) ( ) ( / )
P A P D A
P A P D A P B P D B P C P DC

+ +
=
3 1
3 8 9
3 25 1 1 4 1 2
3 8 3 9 3 9

+ +
14 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
(ii) The fourth toss of A will give head is
1
2
P(A) P(D/A). Similarly for B and C the
probabilities will be
2
3
P(B) P(D/B),
1
3
P(C) P(D/C) respectively. Hence the required
probabilities
=
3 1 1 2 1 4 1 1 2 241
3 8 2 3 3 9 3 3 9 1296
_ _
+ +

, ,
.
30. Three candidates A, B, C are selected for the position of a general manager in a com-
pany whose chances of getting the appointment are in the proportion 4 : 2 : 3 respec-
tively. The probability that A is selected will improve the office canteen is 0.3. The
probability of B and C doing the same are respectively 0.5 and 0.8. What is the probabil-
ity that the office canteen will be improved.
Solution. Let H
1
, H
2
, H
3
, be the events that the candidates are selected for the position
of general manager. Let D be the event that the office canteen being improved. Then
from Bayes Theorem,
P(D) = P(H
1
) P(D/H
1
) + P(H
2
) P(D/H
2
) + P(H
3
) P(D/H
3
)
=
4
9
0.3 +
2
9
0.5 +
3
9
0.8 = .13 + .11 + .27 = .51.
31. A box contains 10 white, 5 yellow and 10 black balls. A ball is chosen at random from
the box and it is noted that it is not one of the black balls. What is the probability that it
is yellow.
Solution. Let Y denote the event that the ball selected is yellow, and let B
C
denote the
event that it is not black. Now
P(Y/B
C
) =
( )
( )
C
C
P Y B
P B

But P(Y B
C
) = P(Y) since the ball will be both yellow and not black if and only if it is
yellow. Hence, assuming that each of the 25 balls is equally likely to be chosen, we
obtain that
P(Y/B
C
) =
5
25 1
15 3
25
.
32. For any three events A, B, C
P(A B
C
/C) + P((A B)/C) = P(A/C).
Solution.
P((A B
C
)/C) + P((A B)/C)
=
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
C
P A B C P A B C
P C P C

+
=
[( ) ( )]
( )
C
P A B C A B C
P C

=
[( ) ] [( ) ]
( )
C
P A C B A C B
P C
1

]
Probability 15
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
=
( ) ( )
( )
C
P A C B B
P C
1

]
by distributive law
=
( )
( )
P A C
P C

.
Note. P((A
2
A
3
. . . A
n
)/A
1
) = P(A
2
/A
1
) + P(A
3
/A
1
) + . . . + P(A
n
/A
1
)
provided A
2
, A
3
, . . . A
n
are pairwise disjoint sets.
33. If A B = B, then show that P(A) P(B
C
)
Solution. A = (A B) (A B
C
) = B (A B
C
) = A B
C
Hence A B
C
which implies P(A) P(B
C
).
34. Two urn contains 4 white and 6 black balls and 4 white and 8 black balls. One urn is
selected at random and a ball is taken out. It turns out to be white. Find the probability
that it is from the first urn.
Solution. Let E
1
and E
2
be events that the first and the second urn respectively were
selected. Since the urn was selected at random
P(E
1
) =
1
2
= P(E
2
).
Let A be the event that the ball taken out is white. Then
A = (E
1
A) (E
2
A) and (E
1
A) (E
2
A) = f.
Now P(A) = P(E
1
A) + P(E
2
A)
= P(E
1
) P(A/E
1
) + P(E
2
) P(A/E
2
) =
1 4 1 4 11
2 10 2 12 30
+
By Bayes theorem P(E
1
/A) =
1 1
1 4
( ) ( / )
2 10 6
( ) 11 11
30
P E P A E
P A

.
35. The contents of urns I, II, III are as follows.
1 white, 2 black, 3 red balls
2 white, 1 black, 1 red ball
4 white, 5 black, 3 red balls
One urn is chosen at random and two balls are drawn. They happen to be white and red.
What is the probability that they come from urns I, II or III?
Solution. Let E
1
, E
2
, E
3
denote the events that the urns I, II, III are chosen respectively
and let A be the event that the two balls taken from the selected urn are white and red.
Then
P(E
1
) = P(E
2
) = P(E
3
) =
1
3
P(A/E
1
) =
2
1 3
1
6 5 C

P(A/E
2
) =
2
2 1
1
4 3 C

16 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory

C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
P(A/E
3
) =
2
4 3
2
12 11 C

Hence P(E
2
/A) =
2 2
3
1
1 1
( ) ( / )
3 3 55
1 1 1 1 1 2 118
( ) ( / )
3 5 3 3 3 11
i i
i
P E P A E
P E P A E

+ +

P(E
3
/A) =
1 2
3 11 30
1 1 1 1 1 1 118
3 5 3 3 3 11

+ +
P(E
1
/A) = 1
55 30 33
118 118 118
.
36. A box contains five balls. Two balls are drawn and found to be white. What is the
probability that all of the balls being white?
Solution. Let B be the probability that two balls drawn are white. Let A
1
, A
2
, A
3
, A
4
be
the probability that the box contains 2, 3, 4 or 5 white balls, since these are the only
possibilities after the knowledge that two white balls are drawn. Hence
P(A
1
) =
1
4
= P(A
2
) = P(A
3
) = P(A
4
)
P(B/A
1
) is the probability that the box contains 2 white balls and both been drawn is
1
4

2 1
5 10
. Similarly P(B/A
2
) =
3 3 1
4 5 20

, P(B/A
3
) =
1 4 1
4 5 5

, P(B/A
5
) =
5 1 1
4 5 4

.
37. In a bolt factory machines A, B, C manufacture respectively 25%, 35%, and 40% of the
total. Of their output 5, 4, 2 percent are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from
the product and is found to be defective. What are the probabilities that it was manufac-
tured by machines A, B, C?
Solution. Let E
1
, E
2
, E
3
be the events that a bolt selected at random is manufactured by
the machines A, B, C respectively and let E denote the event of its being defective. Now
P(E
1
) = 0.25, P(E
2
) = 0.35, P(E
3
) = 0.40
The probability of drawing a defective bolt manufactured by machine A is P(E/E
1
)
= 0.05. Similarly we have
P(E/E
2
) = 0.04, P(E/E
3
) = 0.02
Hence the probability that a defective bolt selected at random is manufactured by
machine A is given by
P(E
1
/E) =
1 1
3
1 1
1
( ) ( / )
( ) ( / )
i
P E P E E
P E P E E

=
0.25 0.05
25
=
0.25 0.05 + 0.35 0.04 + 0.40 0.02 69
Probability 17
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
Similarly we get
P(E
2
/E) =
28
69
, P(E
3
/E) =
16
69
.
Bayes Theorem for future events.
The probability of materialization of another event C given P(C/A E
1
), P(C/A E
2
), . . .
is
P(C/A) =
1
1
( ) ( / ) ( / )
( ) ( / )
n
i i i
i
n
i i
i
P E P A E P C A E
P E P A E

.
38. Three boxes of the same appearance have the following proportion of balls
I 2 black 1 white
II 1 black 2 white
III 2 black 2 white
One of the urn is selected and one ball is drawn. It turns out to be white. What is the
probability of drawing white ball again, if the first one drawn is not replaced.
Solution. Let E
1
, E
2
, E
3
be the event of drawing I, II, III urns respectively. Let A be the
event of drawing white ball. Now
P(E
1
) = P(E
2
) = P(E
3
) =
1
3
P(A/E
1
) =
1
3
; P(A/E
2
) =
2
3
; P(A/E
3
) =
2
4
Let C denote the future event of drawing other white ball from the urns.
P(C/A E
1
) = 0 ; P(C/A E
2
) =
1
2
; P(C/A E
3
) =
1
3
.
P(C/A) =
3
1
3
1
( ) ( / ) ( / )
( ) ( / )
i i i
i
i i
i
P E P A E P C E A
P E P A E

=
1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1
0
3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 1
1 1 1 2 1 1 3
3 3 3 3 3 2
+ +

+ +
.
39. A certain item is manufactured by three factories say 1, 2 and 3. It is known that 1
turns out twice as many items as 2, and that 2 and 3 turns out the same number of item
(during a specified production period). It is also known that 2 percent of the items
produced by 1 and 2 are defective, while 4 percent of those manufactured by 3 are
defective. All the items produced are put into one stockpile, and then one item is chosen
at random. What is the probability that this item is defective?
18 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
Solution. Let A be the event that the item produced is defective. Let B
1
, B
2
, B
3
be the
event that the items come from factories 1, 2, 3 respectively. Let the factory 1 manufac-
ture 50 number of items. Then 2 and 3 manufacture 25 number of items each. Hence
P(B
1
) =
50 1
100 2

; P(B
2
) = P(B
3
) =
25 1
100 4

P(A/B
1
) = P(A/B
2
) = 0.02 ; P(A/B
3
) = 0.04
Hence
P(A) = P(B
1
) P(A/B
1
) + P(B
2
) P(A/B
2
) + P(B
3
) P(A/B
3
)
=
1
2
0.02 +
1
4
0.02 +
1
4
0.04 = 0.025.
40. Suppose that among six bolts, two are shorter than a specified length. If two bolts are
chosen at random, what is the probability that the two shorts bolts are picked?
Solution. Let A
1
, A
2
be the events that the first and second bolt chosen are short,
respectively. Now
P(A
1
A
2
) = P(A
2
/A
1
) P(A
1
) =
1 2 1
5 6 15
.
41. A pair of dice is thrown twice. What is the probability of getting totals of 7 and 11?
Solution. Let A
1
, A
2
, B
1
, and B
2
, be respective independent events that a 7 occurs on the
first throw, 7 occurs on the second throw, an 11 occurs on the first throw, and an 11
occurs on the second throw. A
1
B
2
, B
1
A
2
are mutually exclusive events and
P[(A
1
B
2
) (B
1
A
2
)] = P(A
1
B
2
) + P(B
1
A
2
)
= P(A
1
) P(B
2
) + P(B
1
) P(A
2
)
=
1 1 1 1 1
6 18 18 6 54
_ _ _ _
+

, , , ,
.
42. Three cards are drawn in succession without replacement from a deck of cards. Find the
probability that the event A
1
A
2
A
3
occurs, where A
1
is the event that the first card
is a red ace, A
2
is the event that a second card is a 10 or a Jack and A
3
is the event that
the third card is greater than 3 but less than 7.
Solution. P(A
1
) =
2
52
; P(A
2
/A
1
) =
8
51
; P(A
3
/A
1
A
2
) =
12
50
Hence
P(A
1
A
2
A
3
) = P(A
1
) P(A
2
/A
1
) P(A
3
/A
1
A
2
)
=
8 8 2 12
52 51 50 5525

.
43. A coin is biased so that a head is twice as likely to occur as a tail. If the coin is tossed 3
times, what is the probability of getting 2 tails and 1 head.
Solution. The sample space S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, TTH, THT, TTH}. Since
a coin is biased and a head is twice as likely to occur as a tail, P(H) =
2
3
and P(T) =
1
3
.
Let A be the event of getting 2 tails and 1 head in the 3 tosses of the coin. Then
A = {TTH, THT, HTT}
Probability 19
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
And since the outcomes of the 3 tosses are independent,
P(TTH) = P(T T H) = P(T) P(T) P(H) =
1 1 2 2
3 3 3 27

P(THT) = P(HTT) =
2
27
Hence P(A) =
2 2 2 2
27 27 27 9
+ +
.
44. A
1
, A
2
, ..., A
n
are independent events with respective probabilities P(A
i
) = 1
1
2
i
, i = 1,
2, ..., n. Find the probability P(A
1
+ A
2
+ ... + A
n
).
Solution. We know P(A
1
+ A
2
) = P(A
1
) + P(A
2
) P(A
1
A
2
). Let f(n) = P(A
1
+ A
2
+ ... + A
n
)
and so
f(n + 1) = P(A
1
+ A
2
+ ... + A
n+1
)
= P(A
1
+ A
2
+ ... + A
n
) + P(A
n+1
) P(A
1
+ A
2
+ ... + A
n
) P(A
n+1
)
= f(n) +
1
1
1
2
n+
1

1
]
f(n)
1
1
1
2
n+
1

1
]
f(n + 1) = f(n) + 1
1
1
2
n+
f(n) + f(n) .
1
1
2
n+
f(n + 1) 1 =
1
1
2
n+
[f(n) 1]
=
1
1 1
. [ ( 1) 1]
2 2
n n
f n
+
1

1
]
... ... ... by recursion
=
+

1
1 1 2
1 1 1 1
. . ... [ ( ) 1]
2 2 2 2
n n n
P A
=
1 2
1 1 1 1
. ... . 1 1
2
2 2 2
n n +
1

1
]
f(n + 1) = 1
1 2 1 1 2 ... 1
1 1
1
2 . 2 ... 2 . 2 2
n n n + + + + +

Hence
P(A
1
+ A
2
+ ... + A
n
) = f(n) = 1
1 2 ... ( 1 )
2
1 1
1
2
2
n n n + + + +
.
45. In a company, 5% defective components are produced. What is the probability that
atleast 5 components are to be examined in order to get 3 defectives?
Solution. Given p = 0.05, q = 0.95,
Required probability = P(X = 5) + P(X = 6) + ...
=
4
5 x
(x 1) C
2
(0.05)
3
(0.95)
x3
20 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
= 1
4
3 x

(x 1) C
2
(0.05)
3
(0.95)
x3
= 1 [(0.05)
3
+ 3C
2
. (0.05)
3
(0.95)]
= 0.9995.
46. If you twice flip a balanced coin, what is the probability of getting atleast one head?
Solution.
3
4
.
47. Let X and Y be integer valued random variable with P(X = m, Y = n) = q
2
p
m+n2
, n = m
= 1, 2, ..., and p + q = 1. Are X and Y independent?
Solution. Let P(X = m) = qp
m1
and P(X = n) = qp
n1
. Then
P(X, Y) = P(X) P(Y).
Hence X and Y are independent.
48. A manufacturer of airplane parts knows that the probability is 0.8 that an order will be
ready for shipment on time, and it is 0.7 that an order will be ready for shipment and
will be delivered on time. What is the probability that such an order will be delivered on
time given that it was also ready for shipment on time?
Solution. Let A = order is ready for shipment on time,
B = order is delivered on time.
Hence P(A) = 0.8 and P(A B) = 0.7. So
P(B/A) =
( )
0.7
( ) 0.8
P A B
P A

= 0.875.
49. There are three unbiased coins and one biased coin with head on both sides. A coin is
chosen at random and tossed 4 times. If head occurs all the 4 times, what is the probability
that the biased coin has been chosen?
Solution. P(Head appears in 4 tosses in a coin) =
3
4
Let A = All heads in 4 tosses.
Let P(A biased coin is chosen) = P(F). Then P(F) =
1
4
. Now by Bayes Theorem,
P(F/A) =

( / ) ( ) 16
( / ) ( ) 19
P A F P F
P A F P F
.
50. Two dice are thrown (i) What is the probability that sum 8 comes up? (ii) What is the
probability that sum 8 comes up if it is given that the sum is an even number?
Solution. (i) Total number of cases = 36. Let A : Sum 8
Then from the following table, it is evident that
P(A) =
5
36
.
Probability 21
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-1
(1, 1)
(2, 1)
(3, 1)
(1, 2)
(2, 2)
(3, 2)
(1, 3)
(2, 3)
(3, 3)
(1, 4)
(2, 4)
(1, 5)
(3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
(2, 5) (2, 6)
(1, 6)
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6) (4, 3)
(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
Sum 7
Sum 8
Sum 9
Sum 10
(ii) Further, let B = Sum is even. Then the total number of cases is 18. Hence
P(B) =
18 1
36 2

and P(A/B) =
5
18
.
51. What is the probability of throwing 8, 9 or 10 with two dice?
Solution. With reference to distribution table in the above example 50,
P{8 or 9 or 10} =
No. of favourable cases 12 1
Total number of cases 36 3
.
52. An urn contains a white and b black balls. If + balls are drawn from this urn, find
the probability that among them there will be exactly white and black balls.
Solution. Total number of balls = a + b and hence the total number of cases is C(a + b,
+ ). We choose white balls from a white balls in C(a, ) ways and black balls in
C(b, ) ways. The required favourable cases is C(a, ) C(b, ). Therefore required prob-
ability is
( , ) ( , )
( , )
C a C b
C a b

+ +
.
53. Six dice are rolled. What is the probability of getting three pairs.
Solution. We select three numbers out of six to form pairs in 6C
3
ways. Consider one
such set as {1, 2, 3} say. Then the total number of pairs is the total number of ways of
dividing six dice into groups (1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3) which is equal to
3
6 !
( 2 !)
.
The total number of all possible combinations = 6
6
. Therefore, the required probability is
p =
3
3
6
6 !
6
( 2 !)
25
648
6
C


' ;


.
22 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
54. If W = {1, 2, 3, ..., 120}, find the probability of the set of numbers divisible by 4 or 6 or
both.
Solution. Let B = {w : w is a multiple of 4}
C = {w : w is a multiple of 6}
Then P(B) =
1
4
, P(C) =
1
6
. The set BC consists of those integers which are divisible by
both 4 and 6 namely, divisible by their least common multiple 12, hence P(BC) =
1
12
.
1 2 3 4

5 6

7 8

9 10 11 12

Hence P(B C) = P(B) + P(C) P(BC)

=
1 1 1 1
4 6 12 3
+ .
55. If a deck of 52 playing cards is thoroughly shuffled, what is the probability of getting all
the four aces in a row?
Solution. There are 4 aces among the 52 cards. Taking these 4 aces to be one card, we
have 49 cards in all and hence (49) ! permutations.
Now, if the 4 aces are arranged amongst themselves in 4 ! ways, the total number of
permutations with the four aces together is 4 ! (49) !.
Hence the required probability is
p =
4 ! ( 49 ) !
( 52) !
.
56. A lot consists of 10 good articles, 4 with minor defects and 2 with major defects. Two
articles are chosen from the lot at random (with out replacement). Find the probability
that (i) both are good (ii) both have major defects (iii) atleast 1 is good (iv) atmost 1 is
good (v) exactly 1 is good (vi) neither has major defects and (vii) neither is good.
Solution. Assume both articles are drawn simultaneously, as they are drawn without
replacement. From 16 articles, 2 articles can be chosen in 16C
2
ways.
(i) P(both are good) =
No. of ways of drawing 2 good artices
Total no. of ways of drawing 2 articles
=
2
2
10
3
16 8
C
C

.
(ii) P(both have major defects) =
No. of ways of drawing 2 articles with major defects
Total no. of ways
=
2
2
2
1
16 120
C
C

.
(iii) P(atleast 1 good) = P(1 good or both good)
= P(exactly 1 good and 1 is bad or both good)
=
1 1 2
2
10 6 10
7
16 8
C C C
C

.
Probability 23
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
(iv) P(atmost 1 good) = P(none is good or 1 is good and 1 is bad)
=
0 2 1 1
2
10 6 10 6
5
16 8
C C C C
C
+
.
(v) P(exactly 1 good) = P(1 good and 1 bad)
=
1 1
2
10 6
1
16 2
C C
C

.
(vi) P(neither has major defects) = P(both are not of major defective articles)
=

2
2
14
91
16 120
C
C
.
(vii) P(neither is good) = P(both are defective)
=

2
2
6
1
16 8
C
C
.
57. A box contains 15 chips out of which 4 are defective. The chips are selected at random
one by one, and examined. The ones examined are not put back, what is the probability
that the 9th chip examined is the last defective?
Solution. Let A be the event of getting exactly 3 defectives in examination of 8 chips
and let B be the event that the 9th chip examined is a defective one. Since the chips are
examined without replacement,
We have P(A) =
5 3
8
11 4
15
C C
C

P(B/A) = P(getting one defective chip out of left out chips)

=
1
7
.
Hence P(A B) = P(A) . P(B/A) =
5 3
8
11 4
1
15 7
C C
C

=
8
195
.
58. There are ten counters in a bag, 6 of them worth 5 rupees each while the other 4 are of
equal but of unknown value. If the expectation from drawing a single counter at random
is 4 rupees, find the unknown value.
Solution. The probability of drawing a counter worth Rs. 5 is
6
10
= 0.6. The probability
of drawing a counter of unknown value, say Rs. x is 0.4. Hence the expectation from
drawing a single counter at random is 4 rupees is given by (0.6) 5 + (0.4x) = 4
given x = 2.5.
59. A toy is rejected if the design is faulty or not. The probability that the design is faulty is
0.1 and that the toy is rejected if the design is faulty is 0.95 and otherwise 0.45. If a toy
is rejected, what is the probability that it is due to faulty design.
Solution. Let D
1
, D
2
denote the events that the design is faulty or not. Let A denote the
event that the toy is rejected.
24 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
P(D
1
) = 0.1 and P(D
2
) = 1 0.1 = 0.9
P(A/D
1
) = 0.95 and P(A/D
2
) = 0.45.
P(rejection due to faulty design) = P(D
1
/A)
=
1 1
1 1 2 2
( ) . ( / )
( ) . ( / ) ( ) . ( / )
P D P A D
P D P A D P D P A D +
=
( 0.1) ( 0.95)
( 0.1) ( 0.95) ( 0.9)( 0.45)

+
= 0.19.
60. A box contains 4 bad and 6 good tubes. Two are drawn out from the box at a time. One
of them is tested and found to be good. What is the probability that the other one is also
good?
Solution. Let D
1
= One of the tubes drawn is good
D
2
= The other drawn is also good.
P(D
1
D
2
) = P(both the tubes drawn are good)
=
2
2
6
10
C
C
=
1
3
.
Hence P(D
2
/D
1
) =
1 2
1
( ) 1/3
5
( ) 6/10 9
P D D
P D

.
61. A bag contains 5 white and 3 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random one after the
other without replacement. Find the probability that both balls drawn are black.
Solution. P(Drawing a black ball in the first draw) =
3
8
P(Drawing the second black ball that the first ball drawn is black) =
2
7
P(both balls drawn are black) =
3 3 2
8 7 28
.
62. Four cards are drawn without replacement. What is the probability that they are all
aces?
Solution. P(A) = P(getting first ace) =
4
52
P(B) = P(getting second ace) =
3
51
P(C) = P(getting third ace) =
2
50
P(D) = P(getting fourth ace) =
1
49
.
P(all four cards are aces)
= P(A) P(B) P(C) P(D)
=
3 4 2 1
52 51 50 49

.
Probability 25
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
63. Two fair dice are thrown independently. Three events A, B and C are defined as follows.
(a) odd face with the first die
(b) odd face with the second die
(c) Sum of the numbers in the 2 dice is odd.
Are the events A, B, C mutually independent?
Solution. Given P(A) =
3 1
6 2

; P(B) =
3 1
6 2

.
The outcomes favourable to C are (1, 2), (1, 4), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 3), (2, 5), (3, 2), (3, 4), ...
(see table of Example 50)
Hence
P(C) =
18 1
36 2

, P(A B C) = 0, since C cannot happen when A and Bhappened. Now

P(A) P(B) P(C) =
1 1 1
2 2 2
0 = P(A B C)
Hence A, B, C are not mutually independent.
64. Two dice are thrown n times in succession. What is the probability of obtaining double
six atleast once?
Solution. There are 36 cases in every throw and two dice thrown n times gives (36)
n
cases. In one throw there are 35 unfavourable cases and in n throws there will be (35)
n
unfavourable cases.
Hence the total number of favourable cases will be (36)
n
(35)
n
. The required probability
is
p =
( 36) ( 35)
35
1
36
( 36)
n n n
n

_


,
.
65. What is the probability that among n people there are atleast two persons who have the
same birth day.
Solution. We consider a year with 365 days. Let all n people have different birth days.
The first person have any day of the year as his birthday with probability 1; The second
person can have any day but not the first mans birthday, hence the birthday is
364
365
;
the third person can have any but not the two days, hence the probability is
363
365
and so
on. Hence the probability
q =
365 364 363
. .
365 365 365
... (n factors)
=
( 365)( 364)( 363) ... ( factors)
( 365)
n
n
=
365( 365 1)( 365 2) ... ( 365 ( 1))
( 365)
n
n
26 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
=
1 1 1

1 1 1
] ] ]
""""""!
times
1 2 1
(365)(365) ... (365) 1 1 ... 1
365 365 365
(365)
n
n
n
p = 1 q = 1
1
1 2
1 1 ... 1
365 365 365
n _
_ _

' ;
, ,
,

.
66. A fair coin is tossed n times. What is the probability that exactly j heads appear?
Solution. When a coin is tossed n times we have a sequence of H and T. Total number
of sequences with j heads and n j tails
=
!
! ( ) !
n
j n j
The coin being fair, p = P(H) =
1
2
, q =
1
2
, and the trials being independent, each
sequence occurs with probability
p
j
q
nj
=
1
2
n
.
Hence the required probability
= P{exactly j heads in trials}
= nC
j
p
j
q
nj
= nC
j
.
1
2
n
_

,
.
67. A ball is drawn at random from an urn containing 7 red balls, 3 white balls and 5 blue
balls. Determine the probability that it is
(a) blue (b) not blue (c) red or blue.
Solution. Let A and B denote the events of drawing a red and a blue ball respectively.
Then
(a) P(B) =
5 1
7 3 5 3

+ +
(b) P(Not blue) = P(B) = 1 P(B) = 1
1 2
3 3

.
(c) P(Red or Blue) = P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) =
7 5 4
15 15 5
+ .
68. Two defective tubes get mixed up with 2 good ones. The tubes are tested, one by one,
until both defectives are found. What is the probability that the tube is obtained on (i)
the second test (ii) the third test and (iii) the fourth test?
Solution. Let D represent defective and N denotes the non-defective tube.
(i) P(Second tube is defective in the II test)
= P(First is defective in the I test and II is defective in II test)
= P(D
1
D
2
) (say)
= P(D
1
) P(D
2
)
=
2 1 1
4 3 6

.
Probability 27
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
(ii) P(Second tube is defective in the third test)
= P(D
1
N
2
D
3
or N
1
D
2
D
3
)
=
2 2 1 2 2 1 1
4 3 2 3 3 2 3
+
.
(iii) P(Second tube is defective in the IV test)
= P(D
1
N
2
N
3
D
4
) + p(N
1
D
2
N
3
D
4
)
+ P(N
1
N
2
D
3
D
4
)
=
2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1
1 1
4 3 2 4 3 2 4 3 2
+ + 1
=
1
2
.
69. Four cards are drawn at random from a well shuffled pack of cards. Find the probability
that
(a) (i) all the four are queens
(ii) two cards are diamonds and two are spades
(iii) all the four cards are hearts and one of them is jack.
(b) Draw three cards at random. Find the chance that they are a king, a queen, and a
jack.
Solution. From a pack of 52 cards, 4 can be drawn in 52C
4
ways.
(a) (i) P(all the four are queen) =
4
4
4
52
C
C
(ii) P(Two are diamonds and two are spades) =
2 2
4
13 13
52
C C
C

(iii) P(all the four cards are hearts and one of them is jack) =
1 3
4
1 12
52
C C
C

since out of 13
hearts, only one card is jack.
(b) Let three cards be drawn at random. So the exhaustive events = 52C
3
. A pack
contains 4 kings, 4 queens, and 4 jacks. A king, a queen, a jack can be chosen in 4C
1
ways.
Therefore the required probability
=
1 1 1
3
4 4 4
52
C C C
C

.
70. A and B alternatively throw a pair of dice. A wins if he throws 6 before B throws 7 and
B wins if he throws 7 before A throws 6. If A begins, show that his chance of winning is
30/61.
Solution. Throwing 6 with 2 dice =
Getting 6 as the sum of numbers shown on the top faces of the two dice.
P(Throwing 6 with 2 dice) =
5
36
(see Example 50)
P(Throwing 7 with 2 dice) =
6 1
36 6
.
28 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
Let X Event of A throwing 6
Y Event of B throwing 7.
A plays in the first, third, fifth, ... (2n 1) trials
B plays in the second, Fourth, Sixth, ... 2n trials
Therefore A will win, if he throws 6 in the first trial or third trial or in subsequent (odd)
trials.
Hence P(A wins) = P(X or XY X or
XYXYX
or ...)
= P(X) + P( XY X) + ...
=
5 31 5 5 31 5 31 5 5
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
_ _
+ +

, ,
=
5
36
155
1
216
_

,
by using Geometric series expansion
=
30
61
.
71. What is the chance that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 sundays.
Solution. In a leap year (which contains 366 days) there are 52 complete weeks and 2
days over. We have the following combinations of the left out days.
(i) Sunday and Monday
(ii) Monday and Tuesday
(iii) Tuesday and Wednesday
(iv) Wednesday and Thursday
(v) Thursday and Friday
(vi) Friday and Saturday
(viii) Saturday and Sunday.
In order that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 sundays, one of the two over
days must be sunday. Since out of the above 7 possibilities, the favourable cases is 3.
Hence the required probability =
2
7
.
72. The sum of two non-negative quantities is equal to 2n. Find the chance that their
product is not less than
3
4
times their greatest product.
Solution. Let x, y be non-negative quantities such that x + y = 2n. We know that the
product of two positive quantities whose sum is constant is greatest when the quantities
are equal. Thus the product of x and y is maximum when x = y = n.
Maximum product = n n = n
2
.
P
_ 1 1
<

1 1
, ] ]
2 2 2
3 3 3
| ( 2 )
4 4 5
xy n P xy n P x n x n
= P[(4x
2
8nx + 3n
2
) 0]
= P[(2x 3n)(2x n) 0]
Probability 29
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
= P
3
lies between and
2 2
n n
x
1
1
]
Favourable range =
3
2 2
n n
= n
Total range = 2n
Required Probability =
1
2 2
n
n
.
73. A committee of 4 people is to be appointed from 3 officers of the production department,
4 officers of the purchase department, two officers of the sales department and 1 char-
tered accountant. Find the probability of forming the committee in the following manner
(i) There must be one from each category
(ii) It should have atleast one from the purchase department
(iii) The chartered accountant must be in the committee.
Solution. Out of 3 + 4 + 2 + 1 = 10 persons, committee of 4 peoples are formed in 10C
4
ways.
(i) P(one from each category) =
1 1 1
10
4
4 3 2 1 C C C
C

(ii) p(atleast one from the purchase department) = 1 P(committe has no purchase
department)
In order that the committee has no purchase officer, all the 4 members are to be
selected among officers of production department, sales department and chartered ac-
countant.
i.e., out of 3 + 2 + 1 = 6 member, 4 persons can be chosen in 6C
4
ways. So
P(Committe has no purchase department) =
4
4
6
10
C
C
.
p(atleast one from the purchase department) = 1
4
4
6
10
C
C
= 1
13 1
14 14
.
(iii) P(The chartered accountant must be in the committe) = 1 9C
3
= 9C
3
.
74. Out of (2n + 1) tickets consecutively numbered three are drawn at random. Find the
chance that the numbers on them are in A.P.
Solution. Since out of (2n + 1) tickets, 3 tickets can be drawn in (2n + 1)C
3
ways.
To find the favourable number of cases we are to enumerate all the cases in which the
numbers on the drawn tickets are in A.P. with common difference d = 1, 2, 3, ..., n 1, n
(say).
If d = 1, the possible cases are as follows.
1, 2, 3; 2, 3, 4; ... 2n 1, n, 2n + 1. (i.e., 2n 1 cases in all)
If d = 2, the possible cases are as follows.
1, 3, 5; 2, 4, 6; ... 2n 3, 2n 1, 2n + 1, (i.e., 2n 3 cases in all)
and so on.
30 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
If d = n 1, the possible cases are as follows:
1, n, 2n 1
2, n + 1, 2n
3, n + 2, 2n + 1 (3 cases in all)
If d = n, there is only on case viz. (1, n + 1, 2n + 1).
Hence the total number of favourable cases = (2n 1) + (2n 3) + ... + 5 + 3 + 1
=
2
n
[1 + (2n 1)] = n
2
.
Therefore required probability =
2
2 2
3
( 4 1) ( 4 1)
3
n n
n n n

.
75. Show that the probability of getting 3 atleast once in 4 throws of a die is greater than
the probability of getting a double six atleast once in 24 throws with two dice?
Solution. The probability of getting 3 in one throw of a die =
1
6
The probability of not getting 3 in one throw of a die =
5
6
.
By compound probability theorem, the probability that in 4 throws of a die no 3 is
obtained =
4
5
6
_

,
. Hence the probability of obtaining 3 atleast once in 4 throws = 1
4
5
6
_

,
= 0.516. In a trial of throwing two dice, the probability of getting double six i.e., (6,
6) =
1
36
. Probability of not getting (6, 6) is
35
36
. Probability of not getting (6, 6) in 24
throws of two dice =
24
35
36
_

,
.
P(getting (6, 6) atleast once in 24 throws) = 1 P(not getting (6, 6) in 24 throws)
= 1
24
35
36
_

,
= 0.491.
Hence the result follows.
76. Find the probability that atmost 5 defective fuses will be found in a box of 200 fuses if
experiences shows that 2% of such fuses are defective.
Solution. Given n = 200, p = 2% =
2
100
= .02, mean = np = 200 .02 = 4. We know the
Poisson distribution:
P(x) =
4
. 4
! !
x
x
e
e
x x

.
Hence P(x defective bulbs) =
4
. 4
!
x
e
x

, x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ...
P(atmost 5 defective bulbs) = p(x 5).
= p(0) + p(1) + p(2) + p(3) + p(4) + p(5)
Probability 31
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
=
4 0 4 1 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 5
. 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4
0 ! 1 ! 2 ! 3 ! 4 ! 5 !
e e e e e e

+ + + + +
= e
4

2 3 4 5
4 4 4 4 4
1
1 2 ! 3 ! 4 ! 5 !
1
+ + + + +
1
]
= e
4
42.87 ~

0.785.
77. If X and Y are independent Poisson variate such that P(X = 1) = P(X = 2) and P(Y = 2) =
P(Y = 3). Find the variance of X 2Y.
Solution. We know P(X = x) =
!
x
e
x

. Given
P(X = 1) = P(X = 2)
e

=
2
2 !
e

...(1.1)
and P(Y = 2) = P(Y = 3)

2 3
. .
2 ! 3 !
e e


...(1.2)
From (1.1) we get 2e

. = e

which implies e

[ 2] = 0. Since > 0, e

0, the
only possibility is 2 = 0, which gives = 2.
From (1.2), we get 6e

2
= 2e

3
, which implies 3 = . Hence var (X) = = 2 and
var (Y) = = 3.
var (X 2Y) = 1
2
var (X) + ( 2)
2
. var (Y) = 2 + 4 3 = 14.
78. A box contains tags marked 1, 2, ..., n. Two tags are chosen at random
without replacement. Find the probability that the numbers on the tags will be consecu-
tive integers.
Solution. If the numbers on the tags are to be consecutive integers, they must be
chosen as a pair from the following pairs (1, 2), (2, 3), (3, 4), ..., (n 1, n).
Number of ways of choosing any one pair from the above (n 1) pairs is (n 1)C
1
ways.
Total No. of ways of choosing 2 tags from the tags is nC
2
. Therefore
Required probability =
1 2
( 1)
2
n
n n n

.
79. The probability that a company director will travel by train is
1
5
and by plane is
2
3
.
What is the probability of his travelling by train or plane?
Solution. Let E
1
be the event of travelling by train and E
2
be the event of travelling by
plane. The probability of travelling by train or plane = P(E
1
or E
2
)
= P(E
1
) + P(E
2
) =
1 2 13
5 3 15
+ .
80. A is known to hit the target in 2 out of 5 shorts, whereas B is known to hit the target in
3 out of 4 shots. Find the probability of the target being hit when they both try.
32 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
Solution. Given P(A) =
2
5
, P(B) =
3
4
, P
3
( )
5
A ; P
1
( )
4
B . As the events are independent,
the probability that the target will not hit =
3 1 3
5 4 20
. The probability that the target
will hit = 1
3 17
20 20
.
81. If two dice are thrown, find the probability that the sum is neither 6 nor 10.
Solution. Let A be the event of getting the sum as 6, B be the event of getting the sum
as 10. According to the table in Example 50, the cases favourable to the event A are
(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1). Hence P(A) =
5
36
. Similarly we have P(B) =
3
36
.
The probability that the sum is neither 6 nor 10
= P[(A B)
C
] = 1 P(A B) = 1
5 3 2
36 36 3
1
+
1
]
.
82. The odds in favour of A solving a mathematical problem are 3 to 4 and the odds against
B solving the problem are 5 to 7. Find the probability that the problem will be solved by
atleast one of them.
Solution. P(of A not solving the problem) =
4
7
P(of B not solving the problem) =
5
12
.
Probability of either one of them solving the problem = 1
4 5 16
7 12 21
.
83. If from a lottery of 30 tickets numbered 1, 2, 3, ... 30, four tickets are drawn, what is the
chance that those marked 1 and 2 are among them?
Solution. Out of 30 tickets, 4 are drawn in 30C
4
ways. In the 4 tickets 1 and 2 should be
present. The remaining 2 are chosen in 28C
2
ways. Hence the required probability is
2
4
28
30
C
C
.
84. If n pencils are distributed among m children. What is the probability that a particular
child receives r pencils, where r < n?
Solution. The first pencil can be given to any one of the m children that can be done in
m ways. The second pencil can be given in the same way in m ways. Therefore 2 pencils
can be given in m
2
ways. Extending this concept, n pencil can be distributed in m
n
ways.
r pencils received by the particular child can be chosen from n pencils in nC
r
ways. If
this child receives r pencils, the remaining (n r) pencils can be distributed among the
remaining (m 1) children in (m 1)
nr
ways.
No. of favourable cases is nC
r
(m 1)
nr
Required probability =
( 1)
n r
r
n
nC m
m


.
Probability 33
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
85. From 6 positive and 8 negative numbers, 4 numbers are chosen at random (without
replacement) and multiplied. What is the probability that the product is positive?
Solution. If the product is to be positive, all the 4 numbers must be positive or all the 4
must be negative or 2 of them must be positive and the other 2 must be negative.
No. of ways of choosing 4 positive numbers is 6C
4
ways, and No. of ways of choosing 4
negative numbers is 8C
4
ways, and No. of ways of choosing 2 positive and 2 negative
numbers = 6C
2
8C
2
ways. No. of ways of choosing 4 numbers from 14 numbers is 14C
4
ways. Hence,
Probability that the product is positive
=
No. of ways by which the product is positive
Exhaustive cases
=
4 4 2 2
4
6 8 6 8
14
C C C C
C

.
86. In a coin tossing experiment, if the coin shows head, 1 die is thrown and the result is
recorded. If the coin shows tail, 2 dice are thrown and their sum is recorded. What is the
probability that the recorded number is 6?
Solution. Let E
1
, E
2
be the event of getting head and tail respectively. Let A be the
event of getting 6.
P(getting 6 when one die is thrown) = P(A/E
1
) =
1
6
P(getting a sum when two dice is thrown) = P(A/E
2
) =
5
36
Required probability = P(A)
= P(E
1
) . P(A/E
1
) + P(E
2
) . P(A/E
2
)
=
1 1 1 5
2 6 2 36
+
=
11
72
.
87. A bag contains 50 tickets numbered 1, 2, ..., 50 of which 5 are drawn at random and
arranged in ascending order of the magnitude. What is the probability that the middle
one is 30?
Solution. Out of 50 tickets, 5 are drawn in 50C
5
ways. Let the tickets be arranged in
ascending order say x
1
< x
2
< x
3
< x
4
< x
5
. If x
3
= 30, then the two tickets with number x
1
and x
2
must come from 29 tickets numbered 1 to 29. They can be chosen in 29C
2
ways.
Similarly x
3
, x
4
come from 31 to 50 and it can be chosen in 20C
2
ways.
The favourable cases = 29C
2
20C
2
.
Hence the required probability =
2 2
5
29 20
50
C C
C

.
88. A problem in mathematics is given to five students A
1
, A
2
, A
3
, A
4
, and A
5
. Their chances
of solving it are
1 1 1 1 1
, , , ,
6 5 4 3 2
respectively. What is the probability that the problem will
be solved?
34 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
Solution. The probability that A
1
fails to solve the problem = 1
1 5
6 6
, the probability
that A
2
fails to solve the problem 1
1 4
5 5
, the probability that A
3
fails to solve the
problem = 1
1 3
4 4
, the probability that A
4
fails to solve the problem = 1
1 2
3 3
, the
probability that A
5
fails to solve the problem = 1
1 1
2 2
. The probability that the
problem is not solved by all five students (independent events) =
5 4 3 2 1 1
6 5 4 3 2 6
.
Hence, the probability that the problem will be solved = 1
1 5
6 6
.
89. Find the chance of throwing ten with four dice.
Solution. A die is a small cube marked with numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, in its faces. The
number of ways of throwing 10 with four dice
= Coefficient of x
10
in (x + x
2
+ x
3
+ x
4
+ x
5
+ x
6
)
4
= Coefficient of x
6
in (1 + x + x
2
+ x
3
+ x
3
+ x
4
+ x
5
)
4
= Coefficient of x
6
in
1

1
]
4
6
1
1
x
x
= Coefficient of x
6
in (1 x
6
)
4
(1 x)
4
= Coefficient of x
6
in (1 x
6
)
4

1

+ + + + +
1
1
]
2 6
4 5 4 5 ... 9
1 4 ... ...
2 ! 6 !
x x
x
= Coefficient of x
6
in (1 x
6
)
4

1

+ + + +
1
1
]
2 6
4 5 4 5 ... 9
1 4 ...
2 ! 6 !
x x
x
neglecting higher powers of x
6
.
=
4 5 ... 9
6 !

4 = 80.
The total number of sums of numbers appearing on the faces of the four dice = 6
4
.
The chance of throwing ten with four dice =
4
80 5
81 6

.
90. If A
1
and A
2
are equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and P(B/A
1
)
= 0.2, P(B/A
2
) = 0.3, find p(A
1
/B).
Solution. Since A
1
and A
2
are equally likely, we have P(A
1
) = P(A
2
). Further, they are
mutually exclusive and exhaustive
P(A
1
) + P(A
2
) = 1.
P(A
1
) = P(A
2
) = 0.5
Probability 35
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
P(A
1
/B) =
1 1
1 1 2 2
( ) . ( / )
( ) . ( / ) ( ) . ( / )
P A P B A
P A P B A P A P B A +
=
(0.5)(0.2)
(0.5)(0.2) + (0.5)(0.3)
= 0.4.
91. In a horse race, the odds in favour of the four horses are 1 : 3, 1 : 4, 1 : 5, 1 : 6
respectively. Assume that a dead heat is not possible, find the chance that one of them
wins the race.
Solution. Since it is not possible for all the four horses to cover the same distance in the
same time (a dead heat), the events are mutually exclusive.
Let p
1
p
2
, p
3
, p
4
be the probabilities of winning of the horses H
1
, H
2
, H
3
, H
4
respectively,
we have p
1
=
1 1
1 + 3 4
, (given odds in favour of H
1
are 1 : 3), p
2
=
+
1 1
1 4 5
, p
3
=
1
6
,
p
4
=
1
7
. Thus, the chance that one wins the race = p
1
+ p
2
+ p
3
+ p
4
=
1 1 1 1 638
4 5 6 7 840
+ + + .
92. The odds that person X speaks the truth are 3 : 2 and the odds that person Y speaks the
truth are 5 : 3. In what percentage of cases are they likely to contradict each other on an
identical point.
Solution. Let A : X Speaks the truth,
B : Y Speaks the truth.
Given P(A) =
3 3
3 2 5

+
and P( A ) = 1 P(A) = 1
3 2
5 5
,
P(B) =
5 5
5 3 8

+
and P( B ) = 1 P(B) = 1
5 3
8 8
.
The event E that X and Y contradict each other on an identical point can happen in the
following mutually exclusive ways.
(i) X speaks the truth, Y tells a lie, i.e., A B
(ii) X tells a lie, Y speaks the truth i.e., A B
Hence by addition theorem,
P(E) = P(A B ) + P( A B)
= P(A) . P( B ) + P( A ) P(B) since A and B are independent
=
3 3 2 5 19
5 8 5 8 40
+ = 0.475.
Hence A and B are likely to contradict each other on an identical point in 47.5% cases.
93. Why does it pay to bet consistently on seeing 6 atleast once in 4 throws of a die, but not
on seeing a double six atleast once in 24 throws with two dice?
Solution. Same as problem 75.
94. (Chebychevs Problem). What is the chance that two numbers, chosen at random, will be
prime to each other?
36 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
Solution. If a number a is divided by a prime number r then the possible remainders
are 0, 1, 2, ..., r 1. Hence the chance that a is divisible by r is
1
r
(because the only case
favourable to this is remainder being 0).
Similarly that a number b chosen at random is divisible by r is
1
r
. Since the numbers a
and b chosen at random, the probability that none of them divisible by r is given by
compound probability theorem by

2
1 1 1
1 1 1
r r r
_ _ _


, , ,
, r = 2, 3, 5, 7, ...
Hence the probability that the numbers chosen at random are prime to each other is
give by
2
1
1
r
r
_


,
, where r is a prime number, and by trigonometry this is equal to
2
6

.
95. p is the probability that a man aged x years will die in a year. Find the probability that
out of n men, A
1
, A
2
, ..., A
n
, each aged x, A
1
will die in a year, and will be the first to die.
Solution. Let E
i
= Event that A
i
will die in a year, i = 1, 2, ..., n.
The probability that none of A
1
, A
2
, ..., A
n
dies in a year
= P
1 2
( ... )
n
E E E
= P
1 2
( ) . ( ) ... ( )
n
E P E P E by compound probability theorem
= (1 P(E
1
)) . (1 P(E
2
)) ... (1 P(E
n
))
= (1 p)(1 p) ... (1 p) = (1 p)
n
.
The probability that atleast one of A
1
, A
2
, ..., A
n
dies in a year = 1 P
1 2
( ... )
n
E E E
= 1 (1 p)
n
. The probability that among n men, A
1
is the first to die is
1
n
, and since
this event is independent of the event that atleast one man dies in a year,
required probability is
1
n
[1 (1 p)
n
].
96. A die is loaded in such a manner that for n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, the probability of the face
marked n, landing on top when the die is rolled is proportional to n. Find the probability
that an odd number will appear on tossing the die.
Solution. Given P(n) is proportional to n. That is P(n) = kn, for some constant k. Also
P(1) + P(2) + ... + P(6) = 1 k(1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6) = 1 or k =
1
21
.
Required probability = P(1) + P(3) + P(5) =
1 3 5 3
21 7
+ +
.
97. A five-figured number is formed by the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 (without repetition). Find the
probability that the number formed is divisible by 4.
Probability 37
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
Solution. The total number of ways in which the five digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 can be arranged
among themselves is 5 !. The number of arrangements that being with 0 is 4 !. The total
number of five digited numbers that can be formed from 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 is 5 ! 4 ! = 96. The
number formed will be divisible by 4 it the numbers in the last two digits is divisible by
4. Such numbers are 04, 12, 20, 32, and 40. If the numbers end in 04, the remaining
three digits 1, 2, 3 can be arranged in 3 ! ways.
Similarly, the arrangements of 20, 40 is 3 ! in each case. If the numbers end with 12, the
remaining three digit 0, 3, 4 can be arranged in 3 ! 2 ! = 4 ways. Similarly for 24, and
32 the number of ways of arranging the previous three letters is 4 in each case. Hence
the total number of favourable cases is:
3 3 ! + 3 4 = 18 + 12 = 30.
Hence the required probability =
30
96
.
98. A sportman chance of shooting an animal at a distance r(> a) is
2
2
a
r
. He fires when
r = 2a, and if he misses he reloads and fires when r = 3a, 4a, ... If he misses at distance
na, the animal escapes. Find the odds against the sportman.
Solution. P[Sportsman shoots at a distance ia] =
2
2 2
1
( )
a
ia i

P[Sportsman misses the shot at a distance ia] = 1

2
1
i
P[Animal escapes] =
2
2
1
1
n
i
i

1
]

=
2
2
1 1
1 1
n
i
i
i

1 1
+
1 1
] ]

.
=
2 2
1 2
n n
i i
i i
i i

+

=
1 2 1 3 4 5 1
... ...
2 3 2 3 4
n n
n n
+ 1 1

1 1
] ]
=
1
2
n
n
+
.
Required ratio =
1 1
: 1
2 2
n n
n n
+ + 1 1

1 1
] ]
= (n + 1) : (n 1).
99. Of three independent events, the chance that the first only should happens is a, the
chance of the second only is b and the chance of the third only is c. Show that the
independent chances of the three events are respectively
a
a x +
,
b
b x +
,
c
c x +
where x is the root of the equation (a + x)(b + x)(c + x) = x
2
.
38 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
Solution. P
1 2 3
( ) E E E = P(E
1
) . (1 P(E
2
))(1 P(E
3
)) = a ...(1.3)
P(
1
E E
2

3
E ) = (1 P(E
1
) P(E
2
)(1 P(E
3
)) = b ...(1.4)
P
1 2 3
( ) E E E = (1 P(E
1
))(1 P(E
2
)) P(E
3
) = c. ...(1.5)
Multiplying (1.3), (1.4), (1.5), we get
P(E
1
) P(E
2
) P(E
3
)x
2
= abc,
where x = (1 P(E
1
))(1 P(E
2
))(1 P(E
3
))
Multiplying (1.3) by (1 P(E
1
)), we get
P(E
1
)(1 P(E
1
))(1 P(E
2
))(1 P(E
3
)) = a(1 P(E
1
))
P(E
1
)x = a(1 P(E
1
))
P(E
1
)(x + a) = a
P(E
1
) =
a
a x +
.
Similarly, using (1.4), (1.5), we prove
P(E
2
) =
b
b x +
, P(E
3
) =
c
c x +
.
100. There is a series of n urns. In the ith urn there are i white and (n i) black balls i = 1,
2, 3, ..., k. One urn is chosen at random and 2 balls are drawn from it. Both urn turn out
to be white. What is the probability that the jth urn was chosen, where j is a particular
number between 3 and n.
Solution. Let E
j
denote the event of selection of jth urn, j = 3, 4, ... n and A denote the
event of drawing of 2 white balls, then
P(A/E
j
) =
1
1
j j
n n
_ _

, ,
P(E
j
) =
1
n
, P(A) =
1
1 1
1
n
i
i i
n n n

_ _

, ,

P(E
j
/A) =

_ _ _

, , ,
_ _ _

, , ,

1
1 1
1
1 1
1
n
i
j j
n n n
i i
n n n
.
101. (i) Let the probability p
n
that a family has exactly n children be p
n
, when n 1 and
p
0
= 1 p(1 + p + p
2
+ ...). Show that all sex distributions of n children have the same
probability. Show that for k 1, the probability that a family contains exactly k boys is
1
2 .
(2 )
k
k
p
p
+

.
(ii) Given that a family includes atleast one boy, show that the probability that there
are two or more boys is
2
p
p
.
Probability 39
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
Solution. Given p
n
= p
n
, n 1,
p
0
= 1 p(1 + p + p
2
+ ...)
Let E
j
be the event that the number of children in a family is j and let A be the event
that a family contains exactly k boys. Then
P(E
j
) = p
j
; j = 0, 1, 2, ...
Now, since each child can have any of the two sex distributions (either a boy or a girl)
the total number of possibility for a family to have j children is 2
j
.
Therefore P(A/E
j
) =
2
k
j
jC
, j k.
P(A) =
j k

P(E
j
) P(A/E
j
) = .
2
k
j
j
j k
jC
p

= .
2
j k
j
j k
jC
p

=
2
j
j k
p

_

,

. jC
k
, j k 1.
=
0
2
k r
k r
k
r
p
C
+
+

_

,

, put j k = r.
=
0
2 2
k r
k r
r
r
p p
C

_ _

, ,

, since nC
r
= nC
nr
.
We know
(n)
C
r
= ( 1)
r
.
(n+r1)
C
r
( 1)
r
.
n
C
r
=
n+r1
C
r
( 1)
n
.
(k+1)
C
r
=
k+r
C
r
.
Hence P(A) =
( 1)
0
( 1) .
2 2
k r
r k
r
r
p p
C

_ _

, ,

=
( 1)
0
2 2
k r
k
r
r
p p
C

_ _

, ,

=
( 1)
1
2 2
k k
p p
+
_ _

, ,
by binomial expansion
=
1
1 1
2 2
.
2 (2 ) (2 )
k
k k
k k
p p
p p
+
+ +
_

,
.
(ii) Let B denote the event that a family includes atleast one boy and C denote the event
that a family has two or more boys. Then
P(B) =
1 k
P

(family has exactly k boys)

=
1
1 1
2 2
(2 ) (2 )
(2 )
k
k
k
k k
p p
p p
p

+

1

1

]

40 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
=
2 2
2
1
2
p
p
p p
p
1
1

1
1
_

1 , ]
by Geometric Series expansion
=
2 2
2 2 2 (2 )(1 )
p p p
p p p p p p



P(C) =
k
P

[family has exactly k boys]

=

+

_

,

1
2 2
2 2
2 2
(2 )
k
k
k
k k
p p
p p
p
=
2
2 2
(2 )
1
2
p
p
p p
p
1
1

]
1

]
=
2
2
(2 ) (1 )
p
p p

.
Since C B, and B C = C, P(B C) = P(C)
P(B) P(C/B) = P(C). Therefore
P(C/B) =
2
2
( ) (1 )(2 )
( ) 2
(2 ) (1 )
P C p p p p
P B p p
p p




.
102. If n letters are randomly placed in correctly addressed envelopes, prove that the probability
that exactly r letters are placed in correct envelopes is given by
0
1 1
( 1) .
! !
n r
k
k
r k

, r = 1, 2, ... n.
Solution. Let E
i
, i = 1, 2, ... n be the events that ith letter goes to the correct envelope.
The probability that none of the n letters goes to the correct envelope is
P
1 2
( )
n
E E E = 1 P(E
1
E
2
... E
n
)
= 1

<
1
1
+ + ...
1
1
1
]

1
1 2
1 , 1
( ) ( ) ... ( 1) ( )
n n
n
i i j n
i i j
i j
P E P E E P E E E
...(1.6)
by principle of inclusion and exclusion.
We know P(E
i
) =
1
n
, for all i, P(E
i
E
j
) = P(E
i
) P(E
j
/E
i
) =
1 1
.
1 n n
, for all i, j such that
i < j, and P(E
i
E
j
E
k
) =
1 1
.
1 n n
.
1
2 n
, for all i, j, k with i < j < k, and so on.
Probability 41
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
Substituting in (1.6), we get
P

1 2
( ... )
n
E E E
= 1
1 2 3
1 1 1
. . .
( 1) ( 1)( 2)
nC nC nC
n n n n n n

+ ... + ( 1)
n
.
1
( 1) ... 3 . 2 . 1 n n
1
1

]
= 1
1
1 1 1
1 ... ( 1) .
2 ! 3 ! !
n
n

1
+ +
1
]
=
1 1 1 1
... ( 1) .
2 ! 3 ! 4 ! !
n
n
+ + +
=
0
( 1)
!
n k
k
k

.
The probability that each of the r letters is in the right cover is
=
1 1 1
. . ...
1 ( 1) n n n r
The probability that the remaining (n r) letters goes to incorrect envelope is
0
( 1)
!
n r
k
k
k

.
Hence by compound probability theorem, the probability that out of n letters, r letters
go to correct envelopes is
0
1 ( 1)
.
( 1) ... ( ( 1)) !
n r
k
k
n n n r k

, r n 2.
Since r letters goes to n envelopes in nC
r
mutually exclusive ways, the required prob-
ability of exactly r letters goes to correct envelopes is
nC
r

0
1 ( 1)
( 1) ... ( ( 1)) !
n r
k
k
n n n r k

.
103. The chances of winning 3 out of 5 games and 4 out of 5 games are equal. What is the
chance of winning all the 5 games.
Solution. Let p, q be the probabilities of winning and losing a game. Then p + q = 1.
Probability of winning 3 out of 5 games = 5C
3
q
2
p
3
= 10q
2
p
3
Probability of winning 4 out of 5 games = 5C
4
qp
4
= 5qp
4
Given
10q
2
p
3
= 5qp
4
2q = p 2(1 p) = p
p =
2
3
, and 1 p =
1
3
.
Hence probability of winning 5 out of 5 games = 5C
5
p
5
=
5
2 32
3 243
_

,
.
42 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
104. A pair of dice is rolled. If the sum of 9 has appeared, find the probability that one of the
dice shows 3.
Solution. Let A = the event that the sum is 9
B = the event the one of dice shows 3.
Exhaustive cases = 6
2
= 36.
Favourable cases for the event A = (3, 6), (6, 3), (4, 5), (5, 4), so P(A) =
4 1
36 9
.
Favourable case for the event A B = (3, 6), (6, 3).
Hence P(A B) =
2 1
36 18
.
Since P(A B) = P(A) P(B/A), where have
P(B/A) =

1
( ) 1
18
1
( ) 2
9
P A B
P A
.
105. Out of 800 families with 4 children each, how many families would be expected to have
(i) 2 boys and 2 girls
(ii) atleast one boy
(iii) no girl
(iv) atmost 2 girls.
Solution. p = probability that a child is a girl =
1
2
q = probability that a child is a boy =
1
2
n = total number of children in a family = 4.
(i) P(exactly 2 boys) = 4C
2
q
2
p
2
= 6
2 2
1 1 3
2 2 8
_ _

, ,
(ii) P(atleast one boy) = 1 P(no boy) = 1 4C
0
p
4
= 1
_

,
4
1 15
2 16
.
(iii) P(no girl) = P(all are boys) = 4C
4
q
4
=
4
1 1
2 16
_

,
(iv) P(atmost 2 girls) = P(0 girls or 1 girl or 2 girl)
= P(4 boys or 3 boys or 2 boys)
= 4C
2
q
2
p
2
+ 4C
3
pq
3
+ 4C
4
q
4
=
11
16
.
Total number of families = 800.
Therefore required number of families, in cases (i), (ii), (iii) and (iv) respectively, are
(i) 800
3
8
= 300 (ii) 800
15
16
= 750
Probability 43
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
(iii) 800
1
16
= 50 (iv) 800
11
16
= 550.
106. The odds against manager X setting the wage dispute with the workers are 8 : 6 and
odds in favour of manager Y setting the same dispute are 14 : 16.
(i) What is the chance that neither settles the dispute, if they both try, independently
of each other?
(ii) What is the probability that the dispute will be settled?
Solution. (i) Let E : The manager X will settle the dispute
F : The manager Y will settle the dispute
Then P
+
8 4
( )
8 6 7
E P(E) =
3
7
P(F) =
14 7
14 16 15

+
P
8
( )
15
F .
The probability that neither settle the dispute
= P( ) ( ) . ( ) E F P E P F
=
4 8 32
7 15 105
.
(ii) The dispute will be settled if atleast one of the managers X and Y settles the
dispute. Hence the required probability
P(E F) = 1 P(none settles the dispute)
= 1 P( ) E F
= 1
32 73
105 105
.
EXERCISES
1. Two students A and B work independently on a problem. The probability that the first one will
solve it is
3
4
and the probability that second one will solve it is
2
3
. What is the probability that
the problem will be solved?
2. For given three events A, B, C, verify that
P((A B)/C) = P(A/C) + P(B/C) P((A B)/C).
3. A bag contains 3 red, 6 white, 7 blue balls. What is the probability that two balls drawn are white
and blue.
4. If P(A
1
A
2
) =
2
3
, P(A
1
A
2
) =
1
6
. Find P
( )
1 2
C C
A A and P
( )
1 2
C C
A A .
5. If P(A) =
1
3
, P(B) =
1
4
, P(A B) =
1
6
. Find P(A
C
B
C
).
44 Probability, Random Processes and Queueing Theory
C10\N-PROB\CHP1-2
6. A problem in statistics is given to three students A, B, C whose chances of solving it are
3 1 1
, ,
2 4 5
respectively. What is the probability that the problem will be solved if all of them try
independently.
7. Suppose there are three boxes containing 2 white and 3 black; 3 white and two black, 4 white and
1 black balls respectively. There is equal probability of each box being chosen. One ball is drawn
from a box at random. What is the probability that a ball drawn is white.
8. A bag contains 8 white and 6 red balls. Find the probability of drawing two balls of the same
colour.
9. A box contains 4 bad and 6 good tubes. Two are drawn out together. One of them is tested and
found to be good. What is the probability that the other one is also good.
10. Show that the multiplication theorem P(A B) = P(A/B) P(B) established for two events, may be
generalized to three events as follows.
P(A B C) = P(A/B C) P(B/C) P(C).
11. Prove: If P(A/B) > P(A), then P(B/A) > P(B).
12. Suppose that colored balls are distributed in three indistinguishable boxes as follows:
Box Red White Blue
I 2 3 5
II 4 1 3
III 3 4 3
A box is selected at random from which a ball is selected at random and it is observed to be red
what is the probability that box 3 was selected.
13. A factory has two machines A and B. Past records show that machine A produces 30% of the total
output and machine B the remaining 70%. Machine A produces 5% defective articles and ma-
chine B produces 1% defective articles. An item is drawn at random and found to be defective.
What is the probability that it was produced by machine A.
14. A coin is tossed. If it turns up head, two balls will be drawn from an urn A, otherwise two balls
will be drawn from urn B. Urn A contains 3 black and 5 white balls. Urn B contains 7 black and
1 white ball. In both cases selections are to be made with replacements, what is the probability
that urn A is used given that both the balls drawn are black.
ANSWERS
1.
11
12
3.
7
20
4. ( )
1 2
5
6
C C
P A A
, ( )
1 2
1
3
C C
P A A
5. P(A
C
B
C
) =
5
6
6.
29
32
7.
2
9
8.
43
91
9.
5
9
12.
3
10
13. 0.682 14.
1
8
.