Quarterly GDP data

Year
1966
1966
1966
1966
1967
1967
1967
1967
1968
1968
1968
1968
1969
1969
1969
1969
1970
1970
1970
1970
1971
1971
1971
1971
1972
1972
1972
1972
1973
1973
1973
1973
1974
1974
1974
1974
1975
1975
1975
1975
1976
1976
1976
1976
1977
1977
1977

Quarter
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3

GDP
24.11
24.33
24.57
24.79
24.9
25.06
25.29
25.57
25.86
26.15
26.39
26.76
27.02
27.39
27.79
28.15
28.54
28.94
29.17
29.55
30
30.4
30.71
30.96
31.42
31.61
31.92
32.3
32.73
33.27
33.9
34.48
35.18
35.97
37.07
38.2
39.08
39.63
40.35
41.05
41.49
41.93
42.51
43.25
43.97
44.69
45.32

Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

This is a linear trend model, as seen by the TS-GDP and the regre

time starts at 1 (Q1 1996 and the constant is where predicte

Results of multiple regression for GDP
Summary measures

Multiple R
R-Square
Adj R-Square
StErr of Est

0.9945
0.9890
0.9889
2.9749

ANOVA Table

Source
Explained
Unexplained

df
1
142

Regression coefficients

Constant
Time

Coefficient
17.6130
0.6733

1977
1978
1978
1978
1978
1979
1979
1979
1979
1980
1980
1980
1980
1981
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
1983
1984
1984
1984
1984
1985
1985
1985
1985
1986
1986
1986
1986
1987
1987
1987
1987
1988
1988
1988
1988
1989
1989
1989
1989
1990

4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1

46.08
46.86
47.79
48.64
49.62
50.58
51.73
52.79
53.86
55.08
56.35
57.62
59.16
60.67
61.75
62.95
64.1
65
65.84
66.75
67.44
67.98
68.59
69.17
69.75
70.59
71.18
71.74
72.24
73.01
73.49
73.88
74.4
74.69
75.04
75.51
76.05
76.73
77.27
77.83
78.46
78.99
79.79
80.73
81.36
82.2
83.02
83.62
84.24
85.19

48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97

1990
1990
1990
1991
1991
1991
1991
1992
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1993
1993
1994
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996
1997
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001

2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

86.17
87
87.76
88.78
89.41
89.99
90.47
91.16
91.68
91.98
92.56
93.33
93.83
94.26
94.79
95.28
95.72
96.29
96.74
97.45
97.86
98.31
98.79
99.4
99.74
100.23
100.63
101.36
101.82
102.12
102.49
102.76
103.02
103.38
103.66
104.1
104.45
104.81
105.28
106.25
106.81
107.31
107.78
108.65
109.22
109.83
109.74

98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144

end model, as seen by the TS-GDP and the regression R^2 indicating a good fit of significance

t 1 (Q1 1996 and the constant is where predicted GDP would to have been in the previous quarter Q4-1995. Then we expect GDP to increase by 0.67

SS
MS
F
112799.6484 112799.6484 12745.7656
1256.6958
8.8500

Std Err
0.4984
0.0060

t-value
35.3385
112.8972

p-value
0.0000
0.0000

p-value
0.0000

Lower limit
16.6278
0.6615

Upper limit
18.5983
0.6851

Then we expect GDP to increase by 0.6733 per quarter from then on

Time series plot of GDP

120

100

GDP

80

60

40

20
1

11

16

21

26

31

36

41

46

51

56

61

66

71

76

81

Observation Number

86

91

91

96

101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 141