You are on page 1of 26

www.orbeinvestimentos.

com

Value investing is simple to understand, but difficult to implement. The hard part is discipline, patience, and judgment

Seth Klarman, Baupost Group


1

Orbe Investimentos
Brazil equity manager So Paulo-based long-only equity firm managing $250M Cohesive team 3 partners since inception with a total of 10 investment professionals Differentiated investment philosophy Independent, bottom-up, research driven value investing with an active corporate governance approach

Best Ideas fund Concentrated in 8-12 holdings

Significant alpha generation & performance +40%* annualized return since inception vs. Ibovespa +30%, making it the second best performing equity fund in the country

Independent ownership fully aligned with investors with significant partner capital invested since inception in Jan 03.
*Orbe Value results since inception (2003)

CONFIDENTIAL

Timeline
Orbe Brazil Fund starts

VIGOR, our food company, was sold to a strategic buyer. In 2008, Orbe negotiated the sale of our shares so that the company could be taken private. The price received was close to 100% premium on market prices. First Brazilian institutiona l investor

Orbe Brazil Fund passes US$ 50 million in assets

CVM authorizes Orbe to receive contributions from investors Inception

Outsourced administration/RT A to BNY Mellon

1st US Institutional investor

Orbe Value closed to new investors in Brazil

In Nov/2008, Unibanco and Ita merged to create the largest bank in BR. In the transaction, Unibancos voting shares we owned had a huge premium.

Annual Return Cumulative *

49,35% 49,35%

48,23% 121,37%

25,36% 177,51%

84,91% 413,15%

82,00% 833,95%

-18,50% 661,19%

35,62% 932,29%

18,91% 1.127,50%

-19,07% 893,39%

1,86% 1001,10%
CONFIDENTIAL

* Returns are considered in Brazilian Real because the exchange rate can change the real return. Exchange Rate BRL/USD: 1,73

Investment Team
Name
INVESTMENT COMMITEE

2002

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Education/Experience
Engineer/Mackenzie; Harvard OPM(2013) / Banco Unibanco, Banco Abn-amro BA Mackenzie; MBA FEA-USP; Harvard OPM(2012) / FAMA Investimentos BA, EAESP-FGV / Bain & Co.

Fernando Camargo Luiz


Portfolio Manager

Fabio Figueiredo Carvalho


CIO 15 years experience in public equities

Flavio Rissato Adorno


COO

Mathias Wagner
Research Manager

BA, Economics, IBMEC/SP

Rafael Leite
CFO

BA, Economics, PUC/SP

Bruno Igel
Senior Analyst

BA, Business Administration IBMEC/SP

Fernando Pina
Senior Analyst

BA, Business Administration IBMEC/SP

Nicole Ficker
Analyst

BA, Business Administration IBMEC/SP BA, Business Administration IBMEC/SP / Po de Aucar (CBD), Alpargatas BA, Economics, FEA/USP BA, Economics, FEA/USP

Rodolpho Ruiz
Analyst

Tito vila
Junior Analyst

Frederico Bacelal
Analyst
Partner

CONFIDENTIAL

Orbe Value - Track Record


Return in R$ Return in US$

Funds returns are net of all fees and expenses


The Fund is compared against the Ibovespa, FGV-100 and CDI. The Ibovespa, which is the official index from Brazilian Bovespa exchange, is composed of over 40 companies, mainly of large caps with a combined market capitalization exceeding US$1.2 trillion. The index is very concentrated in 4 sectors: Oil, Mining, Steel and Banks. FGV-100 is an index calculated using the Stockholders equity of the 100 largest companies listed, except banks and government-controlled businesses. CDI is the Brazilian interbank rate, used as reference for fixed-income instruments. There are major differences between the stocks selected by Orbe and Ibovespa and FGV-100 including that Orbe actively manages very concentrated portfolios typically investing in only 8 to 12 companies, from the 450 listed. The Ibovespa & FGV-100 are unmanaged and there may be differences in other features including liquidity and volatility. Orbe Value Fee Structure: 2.3% a year management fee and 20% above FGV-100 incentive fee paid annually. CONFIDENTIAL

Approach & Core Investment Themes

Orbe Approach

Opportunities in Brazil

CONFIDENTIAL

Investment Process
Idea Sourcing
450 listed companies in Brazil Formal Screening Process Quarterly Improvements Price variation Red lights Themes selected according to macro scenario Ideas brought by investment team members Monitoring of insiders Monitoring of executive changes Monitoring of local funds portfolios/situation Initial document Review of all public information Financial Statements Releases Understanding Business Model Clients Suppliers Competitors Value Added Regulation Complete qualitative analysis Meetings with management Complete quantitative analysis DCF to Equity Comparables Balance Sheet Reflect all qualitative view of the company in the DCF Scenarios Capex Working Capital Growth Quarterly formal review of results Regular meetings with management Review of competitors Monitoring of clients and suppliers Improvements suggestion Liquidity Governance Operations M&A Valuation review

Due Diligence Processes

Monitoring

Competitors
Clients Sector specialists Competitive Advantages

Basic Math Time allocation

Weekly Portfolio Committee

Trading
CONFIDENTIAL

Risk X Return -

(plotted Brazilian equity long-only funds with at least 5 year record)

Return

Volatility

5 years - From Sep/2006 to Oct/2011. IBOVESPA and FGV-100 are main equity indexes. CDI is the fixed income benchmark rate in the country. Volatility is expressed in annual terms.

Source: ANBIMA public database. Daily updates to this and other comparative information can be sourced on-line at www.anbima.com.br

CONFIDENTIAL

Main Holdings

By Revenue - Mar/2012

By Market Cap Mar/2012

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL

Some further thoughts on Investment Philosophy


Buy into companies, not markets. We like businesses. Listed stocks are just the way we buy parts of companies. Companies with heightened Governance & Transparency, and strong business models, with highly qualified proven management teams. Essential factors that the broader market may show but are often lacking in individual companies. Dont fall in love. Discipline is the key quality for good value investing. Our past success has been dependent on the effective search, rigorous analysis and diligence, monitoring and constant re-analysis of companies. We are conservative in evaluating any company, using stress scenarios and incorporating pessimistic projections to evaluate possible downside cenarios. Dont overpay. We look for real returns of at least 20% per year. With this in mind, our main focus is really on buying bargain companies so that the downside risk is really minimized. Qualitative > Quantitative. While we rely on financial valuation techniques constantly to search for value, qualitative measures are still more important in the long term. We dedicate a considerable amount of time monitoring the companies business evolution its competition, their new investment projects, cost reductions, market growth strategies,... Recognize weakness and adjust accordingly. The Brazilian stock market continues to be much more inefficient than the US or European markets in terms of depth, breadth and liquidity. Active management in long term portfolios is not just advisable but necessary to reflect the reality of the Brazilian market structure and adjusts pro-actively. Fight the good fight. We are very active yet non-combative investors and will always try to team up with companys management/shareholders to help create value for all shareholders.

10

CONFIDENTIAL

Terms & Conditions


LEGAL ENTITY MINIMUM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FEE PERFORMANCE FEE LOCK-UP HIGH W ATER MARK REDEMPTIONS REDEMPTION FEE MANAGEMENT COMPANY CUSTODIAN ADMINISTRATOR AUDITOR LEGAL Orbe Brazil Fund USD $100,000 2% per annum 20% over 6 month LIBOR + 6% Initial 1st year Yes Quarterly with 3 months notice None Orbe Investimentos Banco Bradesco (2nd largest Brazilian bank) BNY Mellon in Brazil / Caceis in Bermuda KPMG Wakefield & Quin

11

CONFIDENTIAL

Annex 1 Orbe Value Examples of Current and Past Investment Cases

12

CONFIDENTIAL

Vigor (sold)
Industry: Initial Acquisition: Sale: Total Return: Food/Dairy Products R$ 0.60 in May 2006 R$ 5.83 in Feb 2009 972% or 153% a year

Vigor was a strategic asset in Brazilian food industry Large national player with low valuation Strong milk origination contracts Migrating to higher margin products from fluid milk to yogurt and cheeses Very strong brands and distribution chain Group Bertin a Strategic buyer Large Brazilian food company, meat processor High volumes, but very low margins in core business. Bought controlling stake in Nov 2007. Minority Shareholders Orbe was large enough to prevent Bertin from taking Vigor private without negotiating a fair deal for smaller shareholders. Signed agreement to sell full position in Sep 2008.

Revenue and Margin Evolution


900.000 800.000 700.000 40% 35% 30%

600.000

25%
20% 15%

R$ 000

500.000 400.000

300.000
200.000 100.000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

10%
5% 0% -5%

Net Revenue

Gross Margin

EBIT Margin

13

CONFIDENTIAL

Schulz (current)
Industry: Initial Acquisition: Return to date: Current price: EV/Ebitda 2011: Portfolio Exp. (current): Truck, Bus & Agri Machinery parts R$ 0,86 in Dec 2004 967 % or 46% per year R$ 9.17 6.0x 8%
Stock Price in R$

Initial Acquisition

Investment Rationale: Very attractive valuation 2 good business, dominant strong position in both Admired company, history of excellence Very competent management Strategic asset in a industry going trough many changes and fast expansion in the country.

Traded Volume R $ million / week

New strategic focus: Heavy Vehicles parts Growing new business: Heavy Vehicle Parts (10% revenues in 2003 to 75% of revenues in 2011) Favorable economic moment and company expansion. Focus on Trucks, Buses and Contruction/Agricultural Machinery different from competitors, which focus on light small cars. Volvo World Certified Partner - great quality, state-of-the-art plant . Brazil as export base for Trucks, Busses and Tractors
14
CONFIDENTIAL

Trading/Exposure Disciplined Buying/Selling to control exposure/risk

Schulz has been a position in the fund since end of 2004. We focus on never having more than 15% of any business exposure. When this limit is reached we have to sell in order to reduce the concentration. When prices fall, we buy to keep our exposure level this is very clear in the second semester of 2008 on the chart above. When prices go up we sell in order to keep the exposure also within defined limits. Since the bottom of the 2008 crisis for Schulz (mar/09), for example, we have sold about 60% of our shares, because of the ~260% price increase. Typically, we reduce exposure when prices go up reaching levels we are not as comfortable with. If prices keep going up, we might decide to cut the entire position and move the capital back to cash, or other names in the portfolio.

15

CONFIDENTIAL

Sector exposure (and cash balances)

16

CONFIDENTIAL

Annex 2 Why Brazil

17

CONFIDENTIAL

Across the board improvements in the Brazilian environment over the last 15 years
Main risks/issues have improved over recent years
Political
Continuity seen in most policies, independent of ruling party or coalitions. Stronger democracy has consolidated, for 30 years now, with no chance of dictatorial or nationalistic movement. Investment Grade achieved and consolidated, a sign of confidence in macro political overview. While Leftist candidate was elected in 2002, Brazil maintained positive economic course and a pro-business environment. New government following similar steps.

Economic
7th largest economy in the world with a broad industrial base, large internal consumption market, and low exports reliance. Currently under best economic moment ever, with GDP growth, heavy new investments, strong internal markets and controlled inflation. Low credit penetration, underleveraged population and institutions, and reduced impact from international crisis. Inclusion of tens of millions of new middle-class helping to support spending and economic growth.

Exchange Rate and Reserves


Real $ FX appreciation expected in the medium-term but equilibrium levels seen between R$/US$ 1.50 and 1.80 for the short term. Public debt is locally denominated with no external debt outstanding. Over US$ 350 Billion in international reserves, and increasing.

Capital Markets
Now over 450 listed companies, up from around 300 5 years ago. Currently already close to 200 of those have highest levels of transparency and corporate governance. IPOs resumed in 2010, after a break due to the 08 crisis. Fast development also on the debt market, with several new instruments and issues. Strong balance sheets and recent large investments from companies, expanding capacity and allowing good growth in coming years.

18

CONFIDENTIAL

Development and its effects


The middle-class has expanded rapidly and is one of the main drivers for the recent transformations of the Brazilian economy landscape. A little over 50% of the population (more than 90 million people) are now considered middle-class, an increase of 80% over the last 15 years.

19

CONFIDENTIAL

Dynamic Economy 7th largest in the world

20

CONFIDENTIAL

Economic Stability

21

CONFIDENTIAL

Brazil Good position to weather international crisis

Some of the healthiest banks in the world


Low credit exposure Strict banking regulation No exposure to Subprime Credits Mortgage Loans represent only 2% of GDP

22

CONFIDENTIAL

Orbe Universe vs. Ibovespa Index by industry

Ibovespa Index - in white Industry weight


Two companies - Petrobras and Vale represent 29% of the Index. 5 Sectors represent 65% of the Bovespa. hardly representative of the Brazilian Economy

Orbe Universe in blue Industry weight


The Orbe Universe of potential investments is more indicative of the broader Brazilian economy and does not have the over emphasis on commodities that the Ibovespa maintains.

23

CONFIDENTIAL

Relevant corporate governance & transparency improvements in recent years


The differentiated levels of Corporate Governance on the Bovespa

The New Market: Very high standards of corporate governance. Transparency, Tag along rights, voting rights (which are all not required specifically by Brazilian law). Most listed companies that went public in the 70s & 80s were motivated by government incentives. Transparency and good corporate governance policies were not required at the time and only now are these beginning to become part of mainstream corporate culture. The IPOs in recent years have initially adhered to differentiated levels of corporate governance. Most have implemented and adhered to new very high standards of governance in response to investor demand. Some old listing companies have also started to improve governance and transparency by adhering to these conditions in order to improve share price and liquidity.

24

CONFIDENTIAL

Disclosure
The contents of this message are intended for informational purposes only and are not for distribution to and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction. While Orbe Investimentos has done its best to verify the accuracy of all information contained herein, no reliance should be placed on the information or opinions in this communication or their accuracy or completeness, for the purpose of making any investment or any other purpose. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the information or opinions in this communication or their accuracy or completeness, by Orbe Investimentos or by their respective directors, officers, partners, employees, affiliates or agents, and no liability is accepted by any of the foregoing as to the information or opinions in this communication or their accuracy or completeness. Any investment information is intended for use by professional investors only. Under US Law, an offer to buy or sell any securities may only be made through offering documents in compliance with the Securities Act of 1933 or exemptive provisions there under. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. All investment strategies entail some risk. When an investment involves a transaction denominated in a foreign currency, it may be subject to currency fluctuations that will have an impact on the value of the investment in another currency. In addition complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information, differences in regulatory requirements and fees. Investments in the emerging markets involve risks not normally associated with investments in more developed and economically stable jurisdictions with more sophisticated capital markets and regulatory regimes. Such risks include political, economic and currency risks and the risk associated with investing in underdeveloped legal, regulatory and accounting environments. In addition, investments are volatile, and have limited liquidity, transparency and depth, which may make it difficult to achieve a desired purchase or sale price for investments or to purchase or sell investments at any particular time. Any investment should not be made without careful reference to the relevant Prospectus. Nothing herein shall constitute an investment recommendation or investment, accounting, tax or legal advice. All content is for informational purposes only. Under US IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: To ensure compliance with requirements imposed by the IRS, we inform you that any tax advice contained in this communication (including any attachments) was not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of (i) avoiding tax-related penalties under federal, state or local tax law or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another party any transaction or matter addressed herein.

25

CONFIDENTIAL

Tel: 55 11 3465 5600 orbe@orbeinvestimentos.com

26

DISCLAIMER Orbe Investimentos e Participaes Ltda. does not market or distribute investment fund shares or any other financial asset. The information contained in this material is of an exclusively informative nature. Investment funds are not secured by the fund administrator. or by the portfolio manager. or by any other insurance mechanism. or by the fund guaranteeing the credits FGC. Past results do not represent any guarantee of future yield. Investors are recommended to read carefully investment fund prospectus and regulations when investing. CONFIDENTIAL

You might also like