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Sadbhav Engineering
Bloomberg: SADE IN EQUITY Reuters: SADE.NS
NOT RATED
Accounting: GREEN Predictability: GREEN Earnings Momentum: GREEN COMPANY VISIT NOTE
Nitin Bhasin
Tel: +91 22 3043 3241 nitinbhasin@ambitcapital.com
Chhavi Agarwal
Tel: +9122 3043 3203 chhaviagarwal@ambitcapital.com
Stock Information
CMP: Mkt cap: 52-wk H/L: 3M ADV: Beta: BSE Sensex: Nifty: EPS (FY13E) consensus: `119 `18bn/US$344mn `158/91 `12mn/US$0.2mn 1.5x 16,065 4,812 `12.4
Performance (%)
25,000 20,000 1 5,000 1 0,000 No v-1 0 Sensex M ar-1 1 Jul-1 1 1 80 1 30 80 30 No v-1 1 Sadbhav Eng (Rs)
IVRCL
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: Prices are indexed to 100
Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit Capital may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision.
Sadbhav Engineering
Incorporated in 1988, Sadbhav Engineering is an Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) company catering to the roads/highways, mining and irrigation sectors. The roads segment dominates Sadbhavs revenues (82% of revenues in FY11) and order book (74% of order book in FY11). Apart from the core construction business, the company has an infrastructure asset portfolio of four operational projects and five road projects under construction (roads). The firms promoters (Vishnubhai Patel family), hold 48% stake in Sadbhav Engineering which in turn holds a 78% stake in its BOT asset portfolio subsidiary, Sadbhav Infrastructure Pvt Ltd (SIPL).
Profit and Loss (consolidated)
Y/E March (` mn) Net Sales Optg Exp EBITDA Depreciation Interest Expenses PBT ex EO Tax Consolidated Adj. PAT Profit and Loss Ratios EBITDA Margin (%) Adj Net Margin (%) 14.1% 3.9% 17.5% 2.6% 15.5% 3.9% FY09 10,974 9,549 1,544 378 673 574 197 433 FY10 13,340 11,268 2,332 565 1,412 726 459 353 FY11 23,294 19,952 3,608 789 1,574 1,409 638 919
Sadbhav Engineering Exhibit 1: Growth in stand-alone revenues (LHS) is mainly driven by captive orders; EBITDA and PAT margins have remained stable
Rs bn 25 20 15 10 5 0 FY08
Mining EBITDA margin (RHS)
Exhibit 2: High revenue growth from captive orders helped improve working capital and gross block turnover significantly in FY11
7
6 5 4 3 2 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Working capital turnover (x) Gross Block turnover (x)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company Note (a) We have taken standalone revenues on the LHS.
Exhibit 3: Completion of BOTs and external equity infusion significantly lowered debt:equity in FY11
Exhibit 4: Stand-alone return ratios are ahead of peers; consolidated ratios will rise gradually as BOT revenues, cash flows and earnings rise, as visible in FY11
25%
FY09
FY10
Consolidated (x)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company. SA denotes standalone and Cons denotes Consolidated.
Exhibit 5: Investment and loans to BOTs have declined as a proportion of networth in FY11 as incremental investments in BOTs were met through BOT stake sale
Year (` mn) Equity Investment in BOTs (A) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 844 1,096 1,441 3,244 Loans to BOTs (B) 202 72 1,423 39 A+B (C ) 1,046 1,168 2,864 3,283 37% 34% 73% 52% 24% 21% 35% 32% C as % of Networth C as % of Capital employed
Exhibit 6: BOT funding mainly from internal cash flows and external equity, rather than heavy debt raisings
6,000 4,500 3,000 1,500 (1,500) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
CFO (SA) (Rs mn) Investment in BOTs (Rs mn) Fresh equity raise (Rs mn) FCFF (SA) (Rs mn) Incremental debt (Rs mn)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company. We have taken standalone data for our analysis
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company. Note: In FY08 Sadbhav raised Rs920mn through QIP. In FY11, Sadbhav raised Rs1.2bn from rights issues and Rs4bn from the sale of a 22.22% stake in SIPL.
Sadbhav Engineering
Exhibit 8: Faster execution of well-funded BOT assets is bringing the Book to bill (BTB) ratio lower since FY10
Rs bn 80 60 40 20 0 FY08
Mining BTB - BOT roads (x) (RHS)
Road others
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company. Note: (a) We have taken stand-alone data for analysis; (b) For calculating book-to-bill for 1HFY12, segmental revenues and order flow for 2HFY11 is divided as per FY11
Type
56 Annuity
NA -22%
Sadbhav Engineering
Exhibit 10: BOT cash flows increased significantly in FY11 as revenues rose marginally and interest costs remained stagnant
Rs mn 3,000 2,000 1,000 (1,000) FY08
Revenues PAT
Exhibit 11: Consolidated RoEs may remain low but will increase gradually as cash flows rise from present operational assets and assets coming up for operations
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
FY09
CFO
FY10
FY11
FY09
FY10
Interest payment
RoCE (SA)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company (a) The above analysis is calculated as Consolidated less stand-alone
Predictability
GREEN
Sadbhav has always made timely disclosures regarding its future strategy, expected business momentum and expected earnings performance in their conference calls Over the last six months, FY2012 and FY2013 consensus EPS have been revised upward by 15%-20%.
Earnings momentum
GREEN
Sadbhav Engineering
Valuations
Relative valuations historical perspective
Unlike its peers whose valuations have seen historical lows in the last three months, Sadbhav valuations remain sturdy on account of (a) improving financial performance and external equity infusion into BOT assets, and (b) continuing strength of the construction business.
Exhibit 13: Sadbhav is trading at a 20% discount to its 5 year historical 1-year forward PE of 14x
(Rs) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Apr-06 20x 16x 150 12x 8x 100 50 0 Apr-06
Exhibit 14: Sadbhav is trading at a 17% discount of to its 5 year historical 1-year forward PB of 2.5x
(Rs) 250 200 3.0x 2.5x 2.0x 1.5x
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg, Note (a) We have taken stand-alone consensus EPS for our analysis
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg Note (a) We have taken stand-alone consensus BVPS for our analysis
Embedded value for Sabhav has witnessed upgrades over the last couple of years; (consensus embedded value estimates: Jun-09:`15/share, Apr-10:`44/share, Nov-10: `67/share and Oct-11:`81/share). The present embedded value implies `15.5bn valuation for SIPL, which is a 14% discount to the valuation (`18bn) ascribed by private equity investors in August 2010 while infusing `4bn for 22.2% stake. Adjusting for the consensus embedded value, Sadbhavs stock is trading at 1-year forward P/E and P/B of 3.5x and 0.6x, respectively, which is a significant discount to its 2 year historical average.
Exhibit 15: Ex-embedded value, Sadbhav is trading at a 1-year forward PE of 3.5x which is a discount of 57% to its average 2 year historical PE of 8.1x
150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Feb-10 Feb-11 11x 9x 7x 5x
Exhibit 16: Ex-embedded value, Sadbhav is trading at a 1-year forward PB of 0.6x which is a discount of 58% to its average 2 year historical PB of 2.3x
150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Oct-09 Oct-10 Feb-10 Feb-11 Oct-11 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 1.5x 1x 2.5x 2x
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg, Note: We have taken consensus data for our analysis.
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg, Note: We have taken consensus data for our analysis.
Sadbhav Engineering
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research, Industry, Bloomberg, Note: (a) Share prices and market cap data is as on Nov-22, 2011 (b) We have used our stand-alone estimates for NCC, IVRCL, CCCL and KNR and consensus estimates for others. (c) We have taken stand-alone EPS and BVPS consensus data for L&T, Sadbhav, HCC, Gammon and Patel and consolidated consensus data for Punj Lloyd and Simplex.
Source: Ambit Capital research, Company, Bloomberg Note (a) Prices are as on Nov 22, 2011. (b) We have taken consolidated EPS and BVPS consensus data our analysis.
Sadbhav Engineering
Exhibit 14: Sadbhav now trades at a justified premium to IVRCL and NCC and a much lesser discount to L&T on the 1-yr forward PE multiple
60 50 40 30 20 10 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11
Exhibit 15: On 1-yr forward PB basis, Sadbhav trades in line with IRB , but at a premium to ITNL
3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Feb-09 May-09 Feb-10 May-10 Feb-11 May-11 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11
8
Aug-09
Aug-10
IRB(x)
Sadbhav (x)
ITNL (x)
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg, Note: We have taken consensus stand-alone data for our analysis.
Source: Ambit Capital research, Bloomberg, Note: We have taken consensus consolidated data for our analysis.
Aug-11
Sadbhav Engineering
Sadbhav Engineering
Buy Sell
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