Perspective May 2012

Perspective is our monthly update on published polling on politics, social trends, corporate reputation and other topics of interest from the UK and around the world. You can subscribe to receive Perspective by email and can also follow us at twitter.com/PopulusPolls. In this issue of Populus Perspective...

Four more years? New studies lay out extent of Tory challenge US election: the end of the beginning The 0.2% Highlights from twitter.com/PopulusPolls

Four more years? Boris Johnson is on course to retain the keys to City Hall, according to a Populus poll for yesterdays Times (). The poll conducted over the weekend gives Mr Johnson a commanding lead over Ken Livingstone in both the first and second rounds of voting. It also suggests the result hinges on the Mayors ability to get people living in outer boroughs to go out and vote. Ken Livingstone is marginally ahead in inner London (51%-49%), but Mr Johnson enjoys strong support in the rest of the Capital where he leads by 60% to Mr Livingstones 40%. Across the city, the Mayor receives 46% of first round votes against Mr Livingstones 34%, a margin of 12% that he repeats in the second round when the figures are 56% and 44% respectively.

First Round (%)

Johnson (46) Livingstone (34) Jones (6) Paddick (5) Benita (5) Webb (3) Cortiglia (1)

Second Round (%)

Johnson (56) Livingstone (44)

Sample: 1,500 voters, London, Telephone Interviews, 27-29 April

For many, this years campaign was brought to life when the two main candidates clashed publicly over allegations about Mr Johnsons tax affairs. However, the poll shows that this incident enlivened as it was by Mr Johnsons colourful language has little bearing on voting intentions.

62% of people said this was not an important factor for them when deciding where to cast their vote. As The Times reports, one in six voters (16%) who would vote Labour in a General Election say they will vote for Boris Johnson first or second, compared with one in twenty (5%) Conservatives who are prepared to support his opponent. The 11% of people across the Capital who say they would vote Liberal Democrat if a General Election were held tomorrow split evenly 49% for Boris Johnson / 51% for Ken Livingstone as their first or second preference. Indeed, the election is likely to prove a significant disappointment for the LibDems who our poll suggests may fall behind the Green Partys Jenny Jones in the first round of voting. The independent candidate Siobhan Benita is level with LibDem Brian Paddick on 5%. At 2.6%, the margin of error for the poll suggests the result could in actuality be anything between 53%/47% or 59%/41% in favour of Mr Johnson, but the clear consensus across all published polls is that Boris Johnson will be given the chance to deliver on the promises hes made in this campaign, thereby dashing forever Ken Livingstones hopes of a return to City Hall.
New studies lay out extent of the Tory Challenge

Much has been made of the apparent success of Boris Johnsons campaign even as his Conservative colleagues in the coalition have suffered in the polls. While Mr Johnson has surged ahead, the Conservative Party nationally has suffered its largest fall in support since David Cameron became leader in 2005. Populuss latest survey () of voting intention conducted for The Times gave the Labour Party its highest share of the vote this Parliament (42%), with the Conservatives down to 33%. This trend has been reflected in several other recent polls as the following table shows:

Voting Intention, April 2012 Company Populus ComRes ICM Ipsos/Mori YouGov Date 15 th April 19 th April 22nd April 23rd April 25 th April Cons 33 34 33 35 32 Labour 42 40 41 38 43 Lib Dem 11 11 15 12 9 Lead Lab +9 Lab +6 Lab +8 Lab +3 Lab +11

Source: Selected polls published since 15th April

So what accounts for this apparent dichotomy? Some argue that it demonstrates the strength of the Boris brand over and above that of the Conservative Party as a whole. Others that it reflects the negative response to his Labour opponent Ken Livingstone. And of course, its likely that theres some truth in both of these arguments.

But as yesterdays Populus poll shows, if Mr Johnson does prevail tomorrow it will be in large part down to his ability to identify and mobilise supporters in the outer London boroughs. This election then once again demonstrates the degree to which relatively small numbers of voters can make a big difference to election results, a fact reinforced by the findings of a major new study published by Conservative Peer Lord Aschroft on Sunday. Lord Ashcrofts study of BAME (Black and Minority Ethnic) voters in the UK showed that the Conservative Partys failure to attract more votes from these communities at the last general election could have cost the party as many as 20 seats. His research, the most comprehensive study of BAME voter attitudes and opinions ever carried out, revealed voters in every group speaking of a natural affinity with the Labour Party and identifying several policies or events ranging from Enoch Powells inflammatory remarks in the 1970s to the apparently botched investigation into the murder of Stephen Lawrence in the 90s that reinforce their negative impression of the Conservatives.

The words BAME voters use to describe the Conservative Party, from Lord Ashcrofts report Degrees of separation: Ethnic minority voters and the Conservative Party

Significant numbers, including just short of half of Black voters polled, said they would never vote Conservative, even though the research reflected the national trend of putting David Cameron ahead of his party in terms of favourability. While his own relative popularity offers some hope, the findings will no doubt make difficult reading for the Prime Minister as they show his party struggling to connect with ethnic minority groups who constitute approximately 8% of the population. In many ways, Lord Ashcrofts conclusion that the party must [do more to] understand the anxieties and aspirations of people from these backgrounds mirrors that of a separate investigation into political attitudes, this time carried out by the Policy Exchange think tank. Their study of the geographical differences between political attitudes outlined a further challenge for the Conservatives: that of connecting with voters in Northern cities. The Policy Exchange report Northern Lights found that these voters are far more likely to describe themselves as working class

and therefore expressing difficulty in relating to a Tory Party that they regard as being overwhelming privileged. To address this challenge, the report finds that voters would like to see the Tories fielding more working class candidates, candidates with experience of business and candidates who can speak authentically about life experiences in Northern cities. Its not all good news for Labour either. Policy Exchange found that they too are seen by many working class voters as being too privileged and out of touch. So this week its not just the local election results that will be giving party strategists on all sides much food for thought.
US election: the end of the beginning

Strategists on the other side of the Atlantic will be pondering similar issues in the weeks and months ahead. National polls in the US have been suffering from significant volatility recently, with most giving President Obama a lead of anywhere between 1 to 9%. The latest Real Clear Politics average puts the President in the lead by 3%: well within the standard margin of error. Indeed, at this stage its generally worth bearing in mind the following observation from the New York Timess rolling election blog: In the past 10 presidential campaigns, the national polling leader in late April has won the election only half of the time The leader in national polls at the end of April in the past two elections has gone on to win. Before 2004, however, the April leader lost the popular vote more often than not. So perhaps the underlying demographic differences are of greater interest at this relatively early stage of the campaign. According to the latest research from the Pew Research Centre, the Presidents lead is based on his continued support among women, college graduates, blacks, Latinos and lower-income voters. Mr Romney, on the other hand, is doing better among males (50% to 44%), Independents (48% to 42%) and white voters (54% to 39%), the last reflecting the Republican Partys traditional support. Its the role of the Independents that will be of particular interest to strategists. A month ago they split 47%/44% in favour of President Obama. The shift towards Mr Romney over the course of the past month perhaps goes some way to explaining the volatile nature of the national polls. Yet this shift may yet prove to be temporary. Pew finds that while 90% of Independents are prepared to express a preference, only 66% say they are certain about how they will vote; and of those who say they favour Mr Romney, 10% say they only lean towards him and could yet easily change their minds. With the Republican primaries only just drawing to a close, perhaps the best advice is to treat all current polls with extreme caution. Theres a long, long way to go yet. Indeed in many ways, with former house speaker Newt Gingrich not scheduled to end his own race until later today, we have really in the words of those great Americans Richard and Karen Carpenter only just begun.

The 0.2%

As every pollster knows, statistically speaking a margin of 0.2% is usually pretty insignificant. However, in political terms it can seem like a chasm. Confirmation that the British economy shrank by just this amount in the first three months of 2012 albeit based on initial figures that are widely expected to be revised upwards saw members of opposition parties rushing to the news studios to demand a change of course. The dreaded double dip recession is here (for now at least). While the news was somewhat overshadowed by James Murdochs evidence to the Leveson Inquiry evidence that has since dominated discussions around Westminster, if not kitchen tables across the land MPs of all parties might do well to remember that, at the end of the day, elections nearly always come down to the economy (stupid). So it is that the results of research Populus recently carried out for business solutions specialist Sage might yet cause more concern for the government than anything coming out of Court 73 at the Royal Courts of Justice. The survey of more than 1,200 UK business leaders carried out in February and March 2012 found that only slightly more than half felt positive about their own businesss prospects in the six months ahead, while fewer still expressed any optimism about the state of the economy as a whole. 45% of those surveyed said they felt positive about the UKs economic prospects, with 44% saying the same of the global economy. Perhaps unsurprisingly small businesses are the least optimistic, with just slightly more than half responding positively when asked about their prospects. The survey detailed a catalogue of difficulties: 51% cited inflation and the rising costs of energy, fuel, and raw materials as being a particular concern 41% mentioned the difficulties associated with reduced cashflow in the supply chain, and A fifth of UK businesses listed a lack of funding / access to capital amongst their top three business challenges at the present time.

Overall, the study conducted across ten countries found businesses in the US (61.07), Canada (63.65), South Africa (64.44) and Malaysia and Singapore (64.15) to be the most positive about their own prospects, and those in Spain (45.75) to be the most pessimistic about their next six months. Spanish businesses were also the most pessimistic about the state of the global economy as a whole, a view no doubt hardened by recent events in the country. The work is part of a quarterly study that has shown relatively little change in attitudes over the past 6 months. The Leveson revelations may or may not come to have a lasting effect on the state of British politics, but ultimately economic issues are certain to have a significant impact on the outcome of the next election when it comes.
Highlights from twitter.com/PopulusPolls

#100DaysToGo Two thirds of MPs say London 2012 makes them more positive towards UK http://bit.ly/JDYRCz Parents spend 50 hours on 'taxi' duty - AA/Populus poll http://bit.ly/HKab3m Two thirds of MPs want in-house PA teams on register http://bit.ly/I1ZLe5 74% of the public say the most important thing is high-quality free public services, not who runs them http://bit.ly/H0Lu41 Premier League quotes Populus research to show that "Football has become more accepting of all sectors of society http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17213383

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