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Russia and Saudi Ups

Russia and Saudi Oil DA Updates

Russia DA Uniqueness...........................................................................................2
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Russia and Saudi Ups

Russia DA Uniqueness
Russia’s economy is surging because of high oil prices but inflation has also risen
making the economy vulnerable to any sudden change
Emirates Business 24/7 July 11, 2008 (“Russian Economy flourishes like UAE’s”,
http://www.business24-
7.ae/Articles/2008/7/Pages/RussianeconomyflourisheslikeUAE%E2%80%99s.aspx)

With oil prices remaining high, Russia is enjoying a similar economic boom to the Emirates, and
has amassed $500 billion (Dh1.83trn) in foreign currency reserves. GDP has been rising
sharply at around seven per cent per annum for the past seven years. And as emerging
stock markets like China and India have sold down rapidly since last October, 48 and 35
per cent respectively, the Russian bourse hovers near an all-time high. Last week came the news
that Dubai World and OAO Roskommunenergo are to bid $5.3bn for Russia’s biggest wholesale power producer before price caps end
in 2011. This will be the first Russian Energy investment by a GCC oil state, and part of a $34bn sale of electricity generation and
distribution assets since 2006. Dubai-based entities have a mixed record for buying foreign assets in recent years. Property giant
Emaar bought UK estate agency Hamptons just in time for the market to slump, and acquiring the second-largest US housebuilder
John Laing was arguably even worse on timing. But then Madame Tussauds in London proved an excellent buy and was sold on for
double the sale price. Then again last August Dubai World agreed to invest $5.1bn in Kirk Kerkorian’s MGM Mirage company in Las
Vegas as part of Dubai’s diversification plans. Since then Las Vegas has gone into an unprecedented slump with tourism falling in a
city once thought recession proof. OGK-1 has four plants in European Russia and two in Siberia, and supplies electricity to Moscow
and the oil-rich Tyumen region. Only time will tell if this is the right time to buy. It is only too easy for foreign investors to become the
latecomers to any investment party. But the omens are very fortuitous in post-Putin Russia. The economic transformation runs deep
and is being overlooked by the Cold War mentality of some observers in the West. Arriving back in Russia after a year’s absence last
week there is an immediate sense of economic prosperity in the air, and none of the near panic seen in the UK, US and parts of
Europe. Indeed, the most apparent change is that inflation has surged in Russia, usually a sign of
economic strength or possibly overheating. The cost of the train ticket from Moscow to St Petersburg has doubled in a
year, similarly ballet prices have shot up and even the price of art on the streets is double what it was two years ago. Even gas at
the pumps sells for US prices these days.

Russia’s economy to grow 8% this year, but isn’t infallible

Istock analysis July 10, 2008 (“Russian Economy could grow 8% in 2008”,
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2387619&title=Russian
_Economy_Could.html)

Russian GDP could grow about 8% in 2008, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov said
at a meeting with members of the Association of European Business in Moscow on Thursday. “Based on my appraisals and the
appraisals of the Economic Development Ministry, GDP growth could close in on 8% in 2008,” he said. Industrial
production could grow by more than 6%, he said. The government’s official forecast for GDP growth in 2008
currently stands at 7.6%, while the forecast for industrial production is 5.7%. The Economic Development Ministry will present an
According to the Economic Development
updated forecast for 2008 to the government at the end of July.
Ministry, Russian GDP grew 8.3% in the first half of 2008, while industrial production
increased 6.6%. Zhukov noted that Russia has maintained a rather high level of economic
growth “despite the continuing financial crisis throughout the world,” although there have nevertheless been
some negative consequences. As an example, he cited inflation, which was already up to 9% for the year on
July 7, or three percentage points higher than in the same period of last year.
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Russia and Saudi Ups
Russia DA Uniqueness
The Russian economy is strong and getting stronger, although some problems
plague it
Moscow News 7/6/08 (“World Bank Chief praises Russian economy”,
http://mnweekly.ru/world/20080619/55333975.html )

Zoellick was generous with his praise for the Russian economy. He congratulated
President Dmitry Medvedev and his colleagues on Russia's strong economic growth, and
said that this is a very interesting time for Russia and its relations with the World Bank.
Zoellick was much more diplomatic than the authors of the World Bank's early June report on the Russian economy. They too
commended Russia for its economic growth rates: 8.1 percent in 2007, and 8.7 percent in the first quarter of this year. But they again
criticized the Russian government for persistent inflation (which reached 7.7 percent from January to May of this year, and was up to
8.1 percent by June 9). Importantly, for the first time World Bank experts spoke about the
overheating of the Russian economy, which they define as a situation where consumer
demand outstrips the supply of goods and services. Graphic evidence of this is the faster growth of wages
and salaries than labor productivity. This situation threatens even higher inflation, which could eventually slow
down economic growth rates. Nevertheless, the experts have concluded that all macroeconomic indicators, except for inflation, point
to the strength of the Russian economy.
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Russia and Saudi Ups
Russia DA I/L oil prices key to economy
The Russian economy is strong now solely because of oil prices it’s the only thing
masking the underlying problems
McClatchy Newspapers July 17, 2008 (“Russia worries about its high inflation”,
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/100/story/44620.html)

inflation generally was thought to be fueled

Dmitry Sorokin, a prominent economist in Moscow, said Russia's
by the infusion of cash into the economy as well as the higher prices of oil and gas. But
lurking beneath everything, he said, is the fundamental problem that the country's
infrastructure was never fully rebuilt after chronic underinvestment by the Soviets,
followed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and then the 1998 economic crisis. For instance,
the total volume of agricultural production in Russia in 2007 was roughly 25 percent less than in 1989, said Sorokin, the deputy
Why, then, is Russia's gross
director of the economics institute at Russia's academy of sciences in Moscow.
domestic product — about $1.29 trillion last year — so high? "The answer is obvious. It's
because of high oil prices, which have given us money, but not products," Sorokin said. "I call it a
GDP made of air; it's not true growth."
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Islamic Bank Add on
A. Currently High oil prices are giving money to help Islamic banks who will invest
that in helping Africa because there are people who will only take sharia products-
plan takes away the income
The Guardian July 23, 2008 (“Centres fight for Islamic finance as oil booms”,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7672824)

From Africa to Paris to Britain's former industrial heartland, Islamic law-compliant

investment products are springing into existence as financial centres try to compete for a
slice of the Middle East's colossal new oil revenues. With conventional sources of cash
depleted by the credit crunch and fears of recession around the developed world -- and
with high oil and food prices limiting growth -- oil-rich Gulf markets are one of the few
reliable sources of finance. With dollar crude prices soaring to almost double their level
of a year ago -- and Western financial woes seen deepening -- a new intensity has gripped Islamic
finance growth. Estimates of the total size of assets held under Islamic finance rules vary, but the Asian Development Bank
estimates it at around $1 trillion, with growth of 10 to 15 percent a year. It is no surprise then that cities with substantial Muslim
populations and connections as diverse as Singapore and Hong Kong, London and Birmingham and even Paris are vying to act as key
centres of expertise in the new boom. "The French have lagged the British...but recently the French government signalled a change in
attitude," ratings agency Standard & Poor's said this week. "By preparing the ground for Islamic finance, France can help financial
innovation and benefit from the deep pockets of Middle Eastern investors as liquidity has dried up elsewhere in the global financial
markets." It is unclear to what extent, if at all, the vast sovereign wealth funds being built up by Gulf oil produces might be managed
under the strictest principles of Islamic law, which prohibits the use of interest -- and therefore investment in conventional banks,
more and more takers have been coming forward with
alcohol or pornography producers. But
products to target those who demand sharia products. In June, investment bank
Investec announced a partnership with a Saudi investment provider to produce the first
sharia-compliant fund targeting Africa. Other funds are following. For now, two thirds of the worldwide
Islamic sukuk bond market -- an estimated $100 billion -- is based in Malaysia where the industry first took off.

B. There is a huge population of Muslims in Africa and their numbers are only
increasing
Hunwick 96 (John, Dr. Hunwick holds a joint position as professor of religion and
professor of African history. His research has concerned aspects of the intellectual and
social history of Muslims in West Africa, especially in Mali and Nigeria, “Africa and
Islamic Revival: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives”,
http://www.uga.edu/islam/hunwick.html)
One thousand, three hundred and fifty-five years ago, in A.D. 641, the Arab commander 'Amr ibn al-'As led his army across what we
would now call the Gaza Strip and into Egypt. The move constituted Islam's first footsteps in the African
continent, and opened up an era of continuous expansion for the faith, both as a spiritual
enterprise and a political kingdom. Today approximately one quarter of the world's one
billion Muslims live in Africa-that is about 250 million. In the countries of the northern one third of the
continent they are a majority-up to 99% of the population in some cases. This includes all the countries we would
nowadays recognize as "Arab" countries in Africa (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania and,
to some extent the Sudan), as well as a second tier of countries where Islam is either the majority
religion, such as Somalia, Chad, Niger, Mali, Senegal and Guinea, or is the religion of
approximately half of the population, such as Nigeria, Eritrea and Ethiopia. Most other African
countries have minority Muslim populations, i.e. less than 50% of the inhabitants, and these include some with sizeable minorities
such as Ghana, Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone, Kenya and Tanzania; others have smaller numbers.
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Islamic Bank Add on
C. Muslims in Africa are at a Unique risk of contracting AIDS without assistance,
they don’t believe it affects them when it does
Royal Tropical Institute 2003 (“"Positive Muslims" leadership in South Africa”,
http://www.kit.nl/exchange/html/2001-3-postive_muslims.asp )

One of the difficulties Positive Muslims faces is convincing the Muslim community that
AIDS is something that also affects them. Many Muslims believe that AIDS is a
homosexual disease or a disease that affects black people only. This attitude stems from
the belief that the Islamic way of life protects people from contracting HIV and, second,
that most Muslims believe they have not seen or touched a fellow Muslim living with
HIV/AIDS. Islam, like many other religious traditions, advocates abstinence from any
sexual activity before marriage. The reality is that many Muslims have sex before
marriage and engage in extra-marital affairs. The belief that the Islamic way of life protects Muslims is
therefore unrealistic and leads to a false sense of security in the Muslim community. Being
able to see and touch something often makes it more real for people. Since most Muslims believe that they have not touched or seen a
fellow Muslim who is HIV-positive, they conclude that AIDS does not affect them. The reality is that one cannot see who is HIV-
positive or negative, and so many Muslims have come across someone who is HIV-positive. Due to the secrecy surrounding
HIV/AIDS, Muslims are unwilling to reveal their status while alive and families are afraid to say how their loved ones died. The
denial and taboos surrounding HIV/AIDS result in people questioning Positive Muslims' leadership in this field. People challenge our
legitimacy and purpose as an organisation, questioning the type of leadership we provide and asking whether Muslim leadership on
HIV/AIDS is required in the first place. Probably, one of our greatest challenges has been to establish ourselves and our ability to lead
in a community that believes it does not require leadership in the face of the AIDS pandemic. We continue to grapple with this, hoping
through our awareness and education campaigns, Muslims will realise the importance
that
of HIV prevention, before they are able to see and touch fellow Muslims whom they
know are HIV-positive.

D. The impact is extinction

Muchiri 2k [Michael Kibaara Staff Member at Ministry of Education in Nairobi, “Will
Annan finally put out Africa’s fires?” Jakarta Post, March 6, LN]

The executive director of UNAIDS, Peter Piot, estimated that Africa would annually need between $ 1 billion to $ 3 billion to combat
the disease, but currently receives only $ 160 million a year in official assistance. World Bank President James
Wolfensohn lamented that Africa was losing teachers faster than they could be replaced,
and that AIDS was now more effective than war in destabilizing African countries.
Statistics show that AIDS is the leading killer in sub-Saharan Africa, surpassing people killed in
warfare. In 1998, 200,000 people died from armed conflicts compared to 2.2 million from AIDS. Some 33.6 million people have HIV
around the world, 70 percent of them in Africa, thereby robbing countries of their most productive members and decimating entire villages.

About 13 million of the 16 million people who have died of AIDS are in Africa, according to
the UN. What barometer is used to proclaim a holocaust if this number is not a sure measure? There is no doubt that
AIDS is the most serious threat to humankind, more serious than hurricanes, earthquakes,
economic crises, capital crashes or floods. It has no cure yet. We are watching a whole
continent degenerate into ghostly skeletons that finally succumb to a most excruciating,
dehumanizing death. Gore said that his new initiative, if approved by the U.S. Congress, would bring U.S. contributions to
fighting AIDS and other infectious diseases to $ 325 million. Does this mean that the UN Security Council and the U.S. in particular have at last
decided to remember Africa? Suddenly, AIDS was seen as threat to world peace, and Gore would ask the congress to set up millions of dollars
on this case. The hope is that Gore does not intend to make political capital out of this by painting the usually disagreeable Republican-
controlled Congress as the bad guy and hope the buck stops on the whole of current and future U.S. governments' conscience. Maybe there is
nothing left to salvage in Africa after all and this talk is about the African-American vote in November's U.S. presidential vote. Although the UN

, the AIDS challenge is a fundamental one in that it

and the Security Council cannot solve all African problems

threatens to wipe out man. The challenge is not one of a single continent alone because Africa cannot be quarantined.
The trouble is that AIDS has no cure -- and thus even the West has stakes in the AIDS challenge. Once sub-
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Russia and Saudi Ups
Saharan Africa is wiped out, it shall not be long before another continent is on the brink
of extinction. Sure as death, Africa's time has run out, signaling the beginning of the end
of the black race and maybe the human race.

A2: Russian Oil Production Peaked

Russia will still be able to increase production by 2010- Their evidence doesn’t
assume new findings
The Guardian UK July 23, 2008 (“Russia oil output seen up at 10.3 mbpd in 2010”,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7672661)

Russia expects its oil output will rise by 4.6 percent in 2010 compared to 2007, an energy
ministry document showed on Wednesday, stopping short of making predictions for 2008-09. A
government source quoted the report, issued by Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin,
as saying that oil output in Russia will reach 514 million tonnes (10.3 million barrels per day) in
2010, up from 491.5 million tonnes last year. The report did not include the ministry's forecasts of oil
production for this year and 2009. Oil production in Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter
after Saudi Arabia, fell by 0.3 percent in the first half of this year, prompting some
analysts to say the fall might become a trend until the country launches production at new
deposits in East Siberia and the Far East. Shmatko said earlier this month that Russian oil output will
be at least flat this year despite a drop in the first half and will certainly rise next year.
Last year, Russian production rose by 2.3 percent, a notch up from 2.2 percent in 2006, but much lower than huge spikes in previous
The government made maintaining output and exploring
years -- including a record 11 percent in 2003.
for more oil top priorities for the strategic oil sector and approved a number of tax breaks
for the oil industry from 2009 to allow firms to fund new projects.
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A2: Russia DA Oil prices wont Collapse Econ
The Russian government is making the economy impervious to oil prices
Istock analysis July 10, 2008 (“Russian Economy could grow 8% in 2008”,
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2387619&title=Russian
_Economy_Could.html)

Zhukov noted that Russia has maintained a rather high level of economic growth "despite
the continuing financial crisis throughout the world," although there have nevertheless been some negative
consequences. As an example, he cited inflation, which was already up to 9% for the year on July 7, or three percentage points higher
He also said the government has set the goal of "using the
than in the same period of last year.
favorable situation on the global energy market to switch the Russian economy to an
innovative development model, raise the competitiveness of Russian business, retain a
high level of investment, carry out several large infrastructural projects, steadily develop
the banking system and increase its contribution to economic growth." The innovative
development model will make it possible to maintain average GDP growth rates at 6.5%
per year for the period until 2020 even if oil prices fall, he said.

Non-Unique Oil Prices are falling and the Russian economy is just getting stronger
RussiaToday July 17, 2008 (“Oil Prices Wont Affect Russian Economy”,
http://www.russiatoday.ru/business/news/27632)

Fears of an economic slowdown in the US keep kept oil markets volatile on wednesday -
with a sharp downward movement of 6 dollars a barrel for the second day running. At
around 135 dollars, it’s a sign the markets are not sure strong levels of demand can persist.
However, Ron Smith of Alfa Bank says long-term, fundamental demand for oil remains strong. If this trend continues in the next ten
days or two weeks we should see another run at higher prices. At the same time there is reason to believe this might be a bubble, and if
this trade ever turns, if the hedge funds and everyone else who’s piled into suddenly start to think that prices are going to go down then
that will become a self fulfilling prophecy and they will go down.
Russia, the world’s second-biggest oil
exporter, remains little affected for now. With petro-dollars flowing into the country, any hope that lower prices
will slow inflation are also vague. Inflation has topped 9 per cent so far this year. But the falls
in the oil price of this week wont have an immediate impact on inflationary pressure
according to Roland Nash of Renaissance Capital. Its to small a move to have a big impact on the inflation rate in the short term.
You need to see the oil price fall for a considerable period of time. While the clouds
continue to gather for the leading developed economies, investors are increasingly
looking to Russia as a safe haven. So the decision by ratings agency Moody’s to lift its investment rating of Russian
government debt is a timely signal to investors.
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A2: Russia DA Oil prices wont Collapse Econ
Arguments that the Russia Economy is too dependant on energy exports are wrong-
2 reasons
Business Week July 18, 2008 (“A rougher road for emerging market stocks”,
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jul2008/pi20080718_363030.htm?chan=s
earch)

While the Russian economy is arguably too dependent on energy exports, we believe two
factors mitigate this risk. First, rising incomes and credit growth have led to strong
Russian household consumption, which is supporting service and manufacturing
growth, and is helping to diversify the economy. Second, although increasing speculation
has made a short-term correction in raw material prices likely, in our view, we believe a secular
increase in emerging market demand, combined with tight global capacity, will keep the
long-term commodity uptrend intact.
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A2: Russia and Saudi Arabia Non Unique
Non-Unique- oil prices just fell
Iran News July 22, 2008 (“Oil prices fell again after iran deadlock, Gulf storm”,
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=60171&NewsKin
d=Current%20Affairs)

Oil prices fell again after Iran and world powers announced resumption of talks to put an
end to the nuclear standoff; Traders said that prices also slipped on prospects that slowing
economic growth would cut demand for crude, Iran Daily reported. Talk might be cheap, but in
the case of Iran, talk might lead to cheaper gas at the pump. Traders were watching developments in the
Middle East after what appeared to be a shift in US policy toward Iran announced last Tuesday, which left much more impact on the
oil market. Talk might be cheap, but in Iran’s case, talk might lead to cheaper gas at the pump. While certainly not the only reason for
sky-high oil, unnecessary tensions over Iran’s civilian nuclear program have helped fuel the surge in gas prices that is altering
American lifestyles. The
cost of a barrel of oil shot up nearly 8 percent in a single day in June
after a senior Israeli official raised the specter of an attack on Iran, CHN reported. But the
price has dropped to $131 from a record $147, not only because Americans are driving less
but because the Bush administration has finally come to its senses to talk to the Islamic Republic of Iran over its civilian nuclear
program instead of demanding that the country suspend its nuclear enrichment before any face-to-face negotiations.

Non- Unique- Steepest four day decline of oil prices in history and nothing to do
with supply and demand
The Huffington Post July 23, 2008 (“Oil Prices in steep decline: be afraid be very afraid”,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raymond-j-learsy/oil-prices-in-steep-
decli_b_113994.html)

Here we go again. Oil prices tumbling "in the steepest four day decline in history." The sense of
relief throughout the land is palpable. For a moment the fact that we are still at levels over 160% above prices of only a year and a half
ago -- prices unheard of before -- seems lost in the ebullient moment. And silenced for the moment is the inane
commentary of President Bush, of our stalwart Secretary of Energy Sam Bodman, not to speak of our Chairman of the
Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke, of myriad oil company poobahs, and of course our ex-Wall Streeter, Secretary of the Treasury Henry
Paulson who understands that when his cronies on Wall Street are bleeding it's because of the manipulation of the "short sellers", but
All this while our
when it's you and I paying through the nose at the pump "it's all about supply and demand".
regulatory commission, the CFTC, has become more of a casino huckster than vigilant
overseer, forever whitewashing the commodity exchanges, proclaiming "We see no
evidence of manipulation or undue speculation" -- as if an eighteen dollar plunge in
four trading days had everything to do with "supply and demand" -- thereby
shamelessly providing this administration, especially our Energy Secretary, talking points
to rationalize doing nothing.
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A2: Russia: Impact inevitable
Russian economic decline inevitable inflation
Istock Analyst July 22, 2008 (“Russian economy still growing, but could be slowed by
high infation”,
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2423563~title_Russian-
Economy-Still.html)

The Russian economy continues to grow, however high inflation will certainly lead to a
slowdown in economic growth, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said. "It can't
be said for now that economic growth rates are declining," he told journalists on Tuesday
in comments on the low growth levels in fixed capital investment and a reduction in retail
growth rates in June. Economic trends cannot be based on a single month, he said. At the same time, he said that "a slowdown
in economic growth always occurs when inflation is high." Inflation in Russia stood at 9.1% as of July 14.
The problems facing the Russian economy are not connected with the global financial crisis, he said. "Russia's problem is
inflation," he said. Inflation is the main factor behind the decline in retail turnover, rising interest rates and lower investment
levels, he said. At the same time, he noted that investment has yet to decline but could do so. "In the end, inflation leads
to a decline in economic growth rates. There is a basic impression in Russia that high economic growth rates can be achieved when
inflation is up," he said. In recent years, when inflation was on the decline, economic growth was high and investment increased, he
said. Now, investment is not coming into the economy when inflation is high, he added.

Russia’s is growing so fast its overheating boom will turn into bust, the Status
Quo leads to nuke war inevitably, its try or die for the aff
The International Herald Tribune July 22, 2008 (“Some fear Russia's boom could turn to
bust as economy growing too fast”,
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/07/22/business/EU-Russia-Overheating-
Economy.php)

Fears are growing that Russia's oil and gas fueled economy is running too hot — and
about to boil over in the kind of mess that has scalded smaller East European neighbors.
Some of the most vehement warnings have been coming from the normally bland Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who says
gross domestic product is growing too fast and any ill-conceived stimulus measures such
proposed tax cuts will lead to intolerable inflation and a sudden stall in growth. Kudrin
startled audience at a recent tax conference when he compared the issue to nuclear war.
Cut taxes, Kudrin warned, and Russia won't maintain its thousands of atomic warheads. "The 33
percent share of the budget spent on defense and security is our guarantee that there won't
be a nuclear war," the minister said. His opponents, including Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina, are
clamoring for the sharp tax cut to wean Russia off its addiction to imports, which are growing at an annual rate of over 40 percent.
The government is walking a tightrope. With all the government and private sector
spending, inflation is reeling out of control — food prices are soaring at an annual rate of
25 percent — and threatens to submerge hundreds of thousands of people below the
poverty line.
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A2: Russia DA: No Impact
Russia’s economy wont decline their evidence is old and doesn’t assume Russian
measures to prevent a crisis
The International Herald Tribune July 22, 2008 (“Some fear Russia's boom could turn to
bust as economy growing too fast”,
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/07/22/business/EU-Russia-Overheating-
Economy.php)

Concerns over Russia's economy coincide with the approaching 10th anniversary of the
1998 financial crisis, when the country defaulted on domestic debt and devalued the
currency, causing a shock wave on international markets. Millions of Russians lost
their savings. Economists stress there is no chance of a repeat crisis. Russia has wisely
used the oil windfall to tuck away hundreds of billions of dollars in strategic reserves and
sovereign wealth funds — "rainy day" funds that it can use as a buffer against any short-term
shock such as a precipitous drop in oil prices.
SDI 08 13
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Saudi DA- Uniqueness
Currently the Saudi Economy Relies completely on oil revolving around weak
governance and private sector
Reuters News July 24, 2008 (“Trouble looms for oil producers –report”,
http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnL24200465.html )
Oil producing countries need to fix the rest of their economies to prepare for inevitable
falls in exports, a report by a British think tank said on Wednesday. The survey of the
economic prospects of 12 oil-producing countries by Britain's Royal Institute for
International Affairs -- entitled "Ending Dependence, Hard Choices for Oil-Exporting
States" -- described its own conclusions as "rather depressing". Only three of the 12
countries -- Indonesia, Malaysia and Norway -- were "well on the road to moving
towards a non-hydrocarbon-dependent economy." The others -- Algeria, Nigeria, Angola,
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Timor Leste (East Timor), Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran --
"face serious barriers and constraints. "These revolve around weak governance, poorly
performing private sectors and an inadequate programme of economic and political
reform." Although many of them will be able to sell oil for decades, they face a plateau
period long before oil runs out, when the rate of production stops increasing while
growing domestic demand means exports slow and revenues shrink. "Time, not oil, is
running out," it said.

The Saudi Economy is experiencing a boom from high oil prices

Al Bawaba News July 23, 2008 (“Global : Saudi Apparel Retail Market – Continues to
Grow Strongly”, http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/Kuwait/232663)

The Saudi economy has witnessed an economic boom over the past few years thanks to
the high crude oil prices, which have risen from US$25 per barrel in 2003 to exceed
US$130 per barrel in 2008. This oil boom led to the increase in government revenue and
expenditure, which in turn boosted the economy. Furthermore, the government is
investing revenue surplus in building infrastructure and growing the manufacturing and
services sectors in the long term. This in turn will help in preserving the country’s
economic strength for the upcoming years. The impact of a healthy economy on clothing
spending is notably positive. With higher levels of disposable income, and consumer
confidence, Saudi consumers are spending more money, particularly on non-necessities
such as mass market branded clothing. Continued growth in GDP for the short to medium
term will have a positive affect on the growth of purchasing power for consumers.
SDI 08 14
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A2: Saudi DA: Impact inevitable (If you have oil adv.)
Impact inevitable in Status Quo, plan solves
The Economic Times July 3, 2008 (“World oil market in fear of terror attack in Saudi
Arabia”,http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/Economy/Indicators/World_oil_mar
ket_in_fear_of_terror_attack_in_Saudi_Arabia/articleshow/3190779.cms)

An attack -- or even an attempted attack -- by Islamic extremists on Saudi Arabia's oil

sector would have disastrous consequences on the world market and the price per barrel,
analysts warn. Of more than 700 people arrested in the course of the last six months in
Saudi Arabia, dozens had been part of cells charged with preparing attacks against oil
sites, according to authorities in Riyadh. With the price per barrel rising constantly and the capacity to increase global production
almost non-existent, apart from in Saudi Arabia, the world market has never been so vulnerable
to an offensive by Jihadists in the kingdom, they said. Michael Klare, head of the University of Massachusetts's
peace and world security programme and author of the book "Resource Wars", said that even if an attack caused little
damage, the impact would still be enormous. "There would be a tremendous
psychological effect because the market is already prepared to expect terrorist events like
this. It would have an immediate effect on prices," he said.
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A2: Saudi DA: Non Unique
Non Unique demand is falling in the Status Quo causing prices to go down
Emirates Business 24/7 July 25, 2008 (“Demand for oil falling due to high prices”,
http://www.business24-
7.ae/articles/2008/7/pages/07252008_d150dc86aab547d6961a1c7e51988274.aspx)

A surge in oil prices above $100 over the past few months has started to destroy strong
demand and this was evident in the recent price collapse, said a report. With the exception of the world's
oil giant Saudi Arabia, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) as a whole has remained reluctant to increase
production because it wants to drive prices even higher, said the report by the
London-based Centre for Global
Energy Studies (CGES), which is run by former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Al Yamani. In its monthly report for
August, sent to Emirates Business, CGES rebuffed OPEC claims that the sharp rise in crude prices has
been a result of speculation and the weak US dollar, saying supply shortage is the main
reason for the surge. "The world has been short of oil since the middle of 2006 and
remains short now, although demand destruction is gathering pace and prices have fallen
by more than $17 a barrel in the past three days," CGES said. "Producers argue that they are supplying every
barrel that their customers want to lift, but demand is a function of price also and, in the case of crude oil, it is a function of price
differentials as well as absolute prices."
SDI 08 16
Russia and Saudi Ups
A2: Saudi DA: No Impact
Other Countries’ production will collapse soon, this will keep prices up
Houston Chronicle July 24, 2008 ( “Study: Saudi oil exports may start falling in 2014”,
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5905279.html)

To ensure the Saudi economy keeps growing, other sources of income will be needed to
replace oil revenue, which may plateau by the middle of the next decade, according to the report's
authors John Mitchell from the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and Dundee University Emeritus Professor Paul Stevens. Saudi
Arabia, Iran and Nigeria will stop exporting oil by 2040, the researchers said.
Oil output from Iran, Kuwait and
Nigeria, whose production capacity represents more than a quarter of the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries' total, will level off as soon as 2010, the report said. Oil exports may
last longer if producing nations scrap domestic fuel subsidies to reduce energy use or adopt renewable energy. With oil at $100 a
barrel, which the authors take as a floor price, Saudi Arabia's hydrocarbons revenue will fail to cover its fiscal deficit from 2030
onwards, they said. Iran's oil income will cover its expenses until 2025, and Kuwait's until 2040, according to the report.