Professional Documents
Culture Documents
4i-urtr*l *t r.;:lk
Accounting quolity
investment retu rns
drives
hqve
flH';,.j:Jr33.t'"Xt",3ffo2.b,.opiror.o-
stogiotedolqlowtevel.Ouronolysisofthelqslfoury:":":I coniolidoted occounts of the BsE500 (excl - Finonciolsl f"I]:,_-t" *o.nr. moniputorion checks : continuing divergence in qccounling quolity within the stock mqrkel. cosh pilferose checks The silver lining is rhqr rhe relotiorr"t ip between gooa o;;Jritiig "iJ Source; Compo nv. *For eoch cotegorv of to be tightening over lime. positive investment performorra" "e"-" As one woutd expect, occounting quoliryvories by seclor (see toble on the risht) z::1ii"iz:i;:i:xfl:?i:;";il,':'
with the usuol suspects like Reolty, Conglomerotes qnd Conslruciion bringing Sectorbysectorqcc.ountilg.scores. up the reor. More imporlontly, the chonge in o seclor's occounling ,.or., iu.-. (see exhibit 6 on. poge iime seem lo hove o beoring on inveslmenl returns .5). Sector ''!Llrtt,ff3illi;", lronicolly, this puls Reolfy componies in o nice position os, inspile of being the 2ot boltom of ihe closs on o blended bosis over FYOS-l'l , Reolty is one of the mosl Logistics .'li improved seclors when it comes lo chonge in occounting score ocross FYOS-I 1. C&nenf' .:" ,'ii ',t' it6 19,,2 .,:. Ferlilizers Medio componies ore olso in o similor posilion. T6lecom' :r .'' r:" 19o Similorly, occounling scores vory qcross morkel cop buckets (see toble below right 'l 85 & Section 3). Whilst the "top 5Oi'stocks hove the best blended scores ocross FY08- Shipping the greolest in Ayt9.A!t ,. I I , the improvemenl in qccounling scores over FY08-1 I hos been ]11 I8O' the midcop bucket (bucket 3: the 100 stocks with mkt cop between $0.2-0.6bn). ChCinicoli'r Most importonlly, from on inveslors' perspeclive occounling scores hqve q cleqr .lnfroslruclure ".: ' ' .. " '' 173 impoct on srock level returns. Whilst rhis is not oppor"nl when you look oi the Utilifiis 174 lnduslriols BS|5OO os o whole, when you drill down to the seclor level the reloiionship is ': ,' ' ' . 173 : Seclion 5). ln foct, if you drill down furlher inlo o FMtG cfeor (see Exhibits below ond 172 specific morket cop segmenl in o seclor (see Exhibit on lhe right), the link between Oil & Gos '171 :: good occounting ond fositive investmenl performonce becomes even cleorer. Medis
l: lT compqnies - lmpoct of Exhibif.2: Lorge cop lT componies - Textiles lmpocl of qccoJnting on shqre Prices ;1 ' prii." ii.orrrtirrg or,
Exhibif
4e/. 3w"
17O
t 69
"f,rr"
a ^
A 1:: B roor
.-a a . olt -
25o/o
v=1.o662x+0.1322
i ,,r"
Eg E
e*',o'," .:^ !
4tr/"
-lso/o
^ ,/ '"^ o,o,t"..
1 -] ,.: 1 a
Copitol
Mer
Goods
167
Aulo
Mining
Metols
phormq rnqllrrq
166
l6s
163 163
on'o
ConsumeiDuroble
Miscellongous
]58
r53 152 152
e/"
2e
te/. -s% e
svo rory"
l)
t)
s"-.;r
I 4l Conglomerole .136 Whilsr our onolysis uses on on orroy of occounting rolios to detecl finonciol R.oli monipulolion by listed componies, the mosl powerful rolios ore: 169 Averoqe rcFo/EBlTDAorlhe,,coshconversionrolio,,flucluoieswidelyocrosStimeond profits Avg.occountingscoreby-cg!lrgtg] ocrosscomponies. ltoppeorsiholwheneverpromolerswonl-t1 -t:rr"-1 (onddooQlP),workingcopitoldeleriorotesqndcoshconversionsuffers' score r ,,olher Loons &'Advonces os q % of Networlh" seems to be the most BSE5o0 Buckel Avg' occounling 175 widely fovoured roule when il comes to pulling cosh oul of.the compony (lo Top50cos 174 hos cought lhe promoters' foncy ouiside the lisied entity). N61ct 'lOO fund whotever else
Arnbit copitol
reseorch
reseor,
flucluotes significontly ocross time ond widely ocross seclors ond componies.,
of gross deblors" olso Next'100 A Next 95 cos Y---'' "'- source: Ambif copifol reseorch lowscoreonthismelriccombinedwithpoorcoshconversionisorguoblythe defining signoture of o dodgy sel of occounls.
o/o
a^- t..*Lar ih^^ddh+ di<alaimar
162
161
*nlrter
CONTENTS
MgthOdO1ogy..................o.....................o..o..."'o"""""""""""""'3
ACCOunting SCOfeS by SeCiOf .....o....................o...o......o....""""""5
bucket"""'o""""""""""""""8
o"""""""""""""""'9
""""12
DO?
..................o.......o""""""""""'14
AppendiX 1.........o.........................................."'o"""""""""""'I5
Appendiy.2..........................................................""o""""""""17
*nmnr
1r*nrrr ;i xark
1: Methodology
,.u"i . .
Using consolidoted finonciols for FY08, FYO9, FYl0 ond FYI
BSESOO
componies).
90 componies on the grounds thot they hove noi been listed for the durolion of the iorr-y.o, period thot our study focuses on or hove gone through corporole octions like chonge in yeor end, de-merger elc'
Appendix 'l gives o full list of the excluded componies under lhese ihree heodings. lpp"ndi* Z'gives the nomes of the componies included in ihe study olong with lheir secloro I clossificotion.
The occounting rolios thol we ore focusing on include:
CFO/EBITDA: This rotio is o check on o compony's obility lo converl EBIIDA (which con be relotively eosily monipuloted) into operoting cosh flow (which is
more difficult to monipulote). lf this rotio is delerioroting over time then ii roises concerns obout the compony's revenue recognition policy (os oggressive EBITDA growth olongside poor growth in cFo moy imply revenue monipuloi-ion vio-methods like chonnel stuffing). Whilsr on the foce of it the compulolion of the rotio might seem simple, in reol terms il is not os the computotion of the rotio hos gone lhrough four loyers of filtering. To give on exomple, if both CFO ond EBITDA ore negolive the resultont rotio is positive. However our filter ensures thot the rotio turns negotive ond in the process the
compony gets Penolized.
Miscellqneous expenditure os q percentoge of revenues: This rotio is o check on the compony's expendilure policy. lf this rotio is increosing consisiently then it roises concerns over the outhenticity of such expense (os consistent increose in miscelloneous expenses os o percentoge of revenues could imply cosh pilferoge by the promoter). Given thot miscelloneous expenses'oiso includes notionol items reloted to forex, we eliminoie them whilst computing the figure of miscelloneous expenses'
Olher loqns ond qdvqnces qs o percenloge of nel worlh: This roiio is o check on lhe compony's cosh monqgemenl policy' lf this rotio is increosing consislently then it roises concerns over the verocity of loqns given (os o consistent increose in loons could imply diversion of cosh to seemingly
unreloted comPonies).
provision for doubtful debts qs o percenloge of gross debtors: This rotio is q check on the compony's provisioning policy. lf this rotio is consistently folling then it roises the speclre of eornings being boosted through oggressive
provisioning proctices.
Contingeni liobilities os o percenloge of nel worlh: This is o check on the .o*pon-y,, off-bolonce sheet liobilities. lf this rotio is increosing consistently then it roises concerns regording the slrength of the compony's bolonce sheet in the event the conting.nt liobitities moieriolize. Given thot coniingent liobility olso includes genuine items like letler of credil, guorentees, bill discounting ond cloims nof ocknowledged os debt, we eliminote them whilst computing lhe figure of contingent liobilitY. These rolios con be broodly divided inlo three groups - revenue monipulotion checks, expense monipulolion checks ond cosh pilferoge checks - see exhibit 3'
*AI$FJI
exhqustive lisi of the roiios
Exhibir
3:
Cqlegol,
Revenue recognilion checks
&qryifryryse:':
Cosh pilferoge checks
Source; Ambil CoPilol reseorch
ond
os o %
of net worlh
1 we colculote on occounting score Then for eqch of the four yeors between FY08-1 gets-o-score,of
comPony for eoch compony bosed'on ihe obove rotios. The best worsl. o score of I i'e' the in rhe list) ond the. 335 (os ihere ore di;";ilni"t 'l point for every compony o, *" go down lhe occounting quolity score drops by speclrum.
ossign o '0' score if the Occosionqlly, in exceplionol circumsionces, we olso if the compony reporis compony reports on in"rpli.obly bod rotio. For exomple, score' negotive CFb ond negotive EBITDA, we ossign o '0' weightings to eoch of the Note thoi whilst colculoting scores we oscribe equol ony more iudgmentol thon whot rotios since we do n"i*onir" moke the method
it olreody is.
colculoled, we tqke lhe Once lhe scores for eoch yeor between FY08-11 ore 'oi."r, the four yeors io colculote the blended overoge occounting ;;;;.
occounting score ocross FY08-1 1' Bloomberg shore price doto, from All our finonciol doto ore sourced from Copitoline ond our
Copiiol
Ltd
#amnr
Cemenl Ferlilizers
Telecom
4 8
8 6 6
13 14
201 198
4%o
11o/o
OYo
3%
6Yo
1ZYo
2a/o
192
'190
32Yo -12o/o
EO/ -J lO
21o/o
_5%
1o/o
-22o/o
't85
-16Yo
7o/o
t8I
r80
178 175 174 173 172
't71
a%
ao/ L/O
9o/o $Yo
17o/o
19"/o
14o/o 14o/o 14o/o 44%o 21o/o
8%6
9Yo
5a/o 3Yo 3o/o
IO
12
14
19
Oil&
FMCG Gos
5% o%
8o/o
l2
8
33% 1lYo
ao/ -a /o
3o/o
Medio
Textiles
IT
28o/o
7o/o
1o/o
9
29 23
170
169 107
14%
6Yo 5o/o
-5o/o -60/o
4o/o
Copitol Goods
Phormo
lo/o
4o/o 3o/o 2o/o 1Ao/o
26
166
'l5o/o
3Oo/o
Metols
l8
7 7
3
r65 r63
19Yo
Aulo
Agro Consumer Duroble
Retoil
'r63 158
153
21%
3AYo
87o/o 29o/o
lOYo
19%
77o/o 17o/o
5%
2Yo 4Yo
6o/c
I
4 30
l3
IO
14
37Vo
2OYo 7"/o 12o/o
26Yo
9o/o
1%
4o/n 1O"/o Sa/o
-3Yo
2/o
-'l
50/o
-8Yo
Averoqe
Source: Ambit Copitol reseorch
159
lSYo
8Y"
Exhibit
Exhibit
@
scores
(FY08- t I
y=
o
E"
4OYo
o
IL
o
I
y=0.6041x+0.1349 R2 = 0.0258
.,&
3OYo
o
E
L L-
c
o
U
20Yo
o) CL
(,
I
lOYo
Oo/o -1Oo/o1
'L-
o I
.t
-SYo
{b i'
{r it
rir
o(,
o.
o -c ,rt
o L -c tt
-2oo/o
1)
*A*,lF]I
As one would expecl, occounting scores different ocross sectors. Moreover, os shown in Exhibit 6, the chonqe in lhese scores ocross iime hos o beoring on lhe investment performonce of the sector. However, the obsolute level of o seclor's blended occounting score does nol seem to hove o beoring on the sector's
inveslment performonce (see exhibir 5)'
Bosed on lhe blended occounting score (ocross FY08-l'l) Construclion, Conglomerqles snd Reohy emerge os the worsi 3 seclors wilh overoge scores of 148, 141 ond 136 respectively (whereos lhe overoge sectorol score for the BSE$OO is 169). lnterestingly, the shore price performonce of the
15% respectivelY).
Logistics, Cemenl ond Fertilizers emerge os the sec'tors with the strongesl occounting quolity with scores of 201 , 198 ond 192 respectively which is -15o/o obove the BSE500 overoge score. Exhibif 7: Out qnd under performonce for the best 3 qnd bottom 3 seclors (figures in the loble qre obsolule rqlios/volues qnd nol scores)
EBITDA Depreciotion
rotio
Best 3 sectors by
Logistics
CFO/ (7o)
Chg in (bPs)
Misc Exps os
% of Rev
Other
Networth liobility os %
L&A/
Contingent
PDD
("/r)
(Yol
of nelworth
iiiitorrtutperformoncri
780/,
125
133
101
o.401 o.ool
1 .40/<
101
8Yc
70/
7Y,
20/,
1.00 -o.17
1
Cemenl
9501 9001
2i
201
2'l
5o/.
.13
r00
6
49o,:,
So*.., erb;t
Copifol reseorch Nofe; Cells with shoding denole outperformonce for fhe besf seclors ond u nderper{ormonce for lhe bofiom sectors.
Reolty compon:es cqn spring o shqre price surprise going forword given their iubstontiol shore price underperformonce (15o/o over FY08-'11) ond the significont improvement in the occounting score (10% improvement over FY08I I ).
. .
Medio compqnies could surprise on the positive side given lhe 28o/o improvement in this sector's occounling score over the FY08-.l1 (the highest
omidst peers) ond shore price underperformonce relotive to the Sensex.
On the other hond Consumer Durqbles ond FMCG mqy disqppoint given these sectors' huge shore price oulperformonce relolive to the Sensex (77% ond 33% respeclively) coupled with only modesl improvements in their occounting scores (57o ond 0% respectively). Exhibit 8 looks ot the experience (from on occounting perspective) of the five sectors whose scores hove improved the mosl over FY08-11 - Mediq, Reolfi Agro, tnfrostruclure qnd Utilities - ond five seciors whose scores hove deterioroted lhe mosl (or stognoted) over FY08-1,| - Telecom, IT, FMCG, Copitql Goods ond Construclion.
*nlner
Exhibit 8: How the five besl qnd worsl performing seclors (from four veqrs perspeclive) hove evolved over the
Sectons
occounting
ffiimprovement|28%peronnum)initsoccountingscore
Medio
over the posl four yeors. This improvement hos been moinly driven by belter cosh generotion ond modest chonge in depreciotion roie ocross oll lhe {our yeors. [eohy hos olso shown improvemenl (I07o per onnum] in its occounling- score over
ln1{slruetrre -'-"--,,. .,
oenerotion, rising provision for doubtful debts, folling olher loons os % of neiworlh, ind modesr chonge in depreciotion rote ocross lwo yeors (FYl O ond FYI I )Agro hos olso shown improvement (10% per onnum) in iis occouniing score over th-e post four yeors. This improvemenl hos been moinly driven by betler cosh generoiion, modesl chonge in depreciotio,n role,. folling miscelloneous exPenses, iolling contingenl liobility, rising provision {or doubtful debts, folling olher loons os yeors % of networth ond lower growth in oudit fee relolive lo revenues ocross two (FY09 ond FYl0) infroslruclure hos olia. shir'\ilnliinprovemenl [9% ger onnum] in its occounling scor: .o*, the post foirr yeiirs. This improvemenl hos been moinly driven by betler cosh generolion, modSl changd'in {epreiotion roie, folling miscelloneous expenses, . ina lower growlh in oudit fee relolive lo revenues ocross two yecrs (FY09 ond FY]0)
the posf four yerlrs. This improvement hos been moinly driven by better
cosh
generolion, modesl chonge in depreciotion rote.,.folling miscelloneous exPenses, uriliries iower growih in oudit fee relotive lo revenues, folling contingent liobility ond rising provisions on doubtful debts ocross two yeors (FY l0 ond FY'l 1) showing lhe biggesf deleriorqlion (or smoltest improvement) in occounting quolity Sectors Telecom is lhe onlv secior whose occountinq scores fell over FY08-l I . This dromoiic d"t."i.r.ti." '" d.'r"" by rising olher loons os % of networth, rising miscelloneous Telecom expenses, rising conlingenr liobility oso/ool nelworlh ond folling provisions os % of doubtful debts ocross two yeors ((FY08 ond FY09). fMCG,s occounlin-g scores hove stog:roled over lhe posl four yeors olbeit ol'l on obove oversge level {the FYOS-I 1 blended overole score for FMCG is 173 vs 69 FlltCG
for the BSE500).
!T
'.'
the post four yeors. This improvemenl hos been. moinly driven by belier
Utilities hos olso shown improvement (8% per onnum) in ils occounting score over
cosh
with lT,s occountinj scores hove slognoied over lhe posl four yeors exoclly in-line o,rlrog. level (the FYoS-] 1 blended overoge score for lT is 169 vs I 69 lhe morket for the BSE500) Copirql,,Oqoa"i occlintittg siores, hove sfogryle.d over the prsl foui y.eors^BELOW is rh;ti;"tJ."*"ge'bvr'[th" FYoS-]1 blended overoge scoie for copitol Goods o/o iOZ ," f 69 for th-e BSE5Ob). This de,teriorotion is driven by rising olher loqns os o/o rising conJlnglnt liobility a? '\ of nelw-orih, folling provisions os. of "ii"f*"*ft, oni t igi;igr"rrih in oudit fees relotive lo revenues over o period of a.Ufr
Copircil Goods
ioritt
fYt0 ond FYI 1). iin"tiu"tion,s occounling scores hove stognoled over ihe post four
yeors WELL
Conslruclion
blended overoge score for is 148 vs 169 for rhe BSE500). As highlighted in exhibil 7 on ihe construction
FYoS-]
previous poge, this sector fores very poorly on CFO/EBITDA (cosh conversion rotio loons Z,f onty ZZ.ilor this sector vs 6l% for the BSE500 os o whole) ond on "other (omounting lo 67o of nelworlh vs 2olo for BSE500 os o whole) ond oivonces,,
When we qnolyze lhe correlolion between the blended occounting score ond shore price performonce ocross sectors, we find thoi in more thon 5Oo/o of ihe sectors in qnd iLr" gieSOO, lhere is o direci correloiion between shore price performonce occounting quolity ond shore prices) is explored furlher on in this note.
blended occounting score (i... higher the score, higher the shore price performonce for thot porticulor seclor). This issue (regording the link between
ln light of this correlqlion between occounling scores ond shqre price performonce ocro;s sectors, exhibit 8 obove becomes podiculorly relevonl os:
. '
Some of the hottest seclors in terms of investmeni returns over ihe pqsl iwo yeors - lT, FMCG, etc -hove nol seen ony improvemeni in their occounting quolity over ihe Post four Yeors. Some of the hqmmered seclors in terms of investment relurns over the posl two yeors - Medio, Reoliy, lnfrostruclure, Utililies, etc - hove shown o strong improvement in occounting quolity over the posi four yeors'
gr.k"r
Bucket
1
^.."",t
'"..ro. .,, ,n
::tloo,.:,',1,
100
''="".*('iiia-t t')
175
-',t'
in score (rYoa-iu
,, ,
,l1
Bucket 2Buckel 3
.:r r|,,
1;
,,,' ,;1,.'{
I irf+t l,"l
162
tit'
l:'t 'l''
:*,.lo
60/o
r.
,.ll1
r. rtl
:lrl
'a l
::r, 2196
15%
8%
on December 8th, 201 1' we hove Bosed on the morket copitolizotion of componies
iVlJ"a
these four buckets in the monner The 335 componies in our study ore splii ocross shown in the toble below.
Exhibir
Buckel
tsUckgl Bucket 1I
l0:
# ol componies in buckel
50 100 100 85
,Bu&ai*,
Bucket 3
9u*ei,+
Toiol
tl I 62bn - (2,550bn (US$3.2bn -US$SObn) \. ozurr -,\'rv .?!q} .' .t30h! {15et \ z.!u. - \47.evrr <rlz.J9Ir lvvY' -.zs ti" irs$0.2bn -uS$o.6bn) ;Us$0- 6!n| < *cbn,'-'t ?2,4urr iuslorzun
335
shore-price performonce We find thqt there is o direct relotionship between score qrross FY08-'11 (i.e. higher ocross buckeis ond t-he biended occounring for thoi porticulor bucket)' the score, the betler the shore price perfo-rmonce occounling scores ocross FY08-11 ol 175' Buckets i,2,3 ond 4 with blenied .174,162 ond l6l respectir.ly ho* shown shlre price performonce (FY08-11 Cndnl of 22o/o,21o/o, 15Yo ond 8% respeclively' chonge. in the blended However, when we look of the overog,e onnuol -hqs performed the worst - it hos t occounting score we nlie thot buckel qnnuol occouniing score over FY08-11' the lowest improvement in iis overoge
Ambii Copiiol
Pvt Ltd
*nMar
Frr0
Revenue iionipulolion
CFO/EBITDA rotio (%)
4OYo 860/o 58o/o
FTI
58o/o
beense Monipulolion
Conlingenl liobility os o % of networth
Proviiiiia:,for doubtful ai6,ro8.!&, q'X of illprg&brors Cosh Pilferoge
Misc expenses os % of revenue
9Yo
1Oq1o
'lSYo
13Yo
3.8% 2.8%
1.4o/o
3:9%
'4:loh
i.7,v,e
3.2o/o
2.5o/o
,1 .8lo/o
2.7%
45Yo
168Yo
5o/o
Eull
Source; ,Ambif Copito/ reseorch
B.o,
conditions prevolent from Morch 2OO9 lo Augusl 2OO9. This shorp drop in CFO/EBITDA in FY10 suggests thot to meei lhe streel's expectolion, componies might hove resorted to vorious types of oggressive revenue recognition (eg. chonnel stuffing) which whilst ensuring EBITDA grovrlh, odversely impocts working copilol hence lowers fhe CFO/EBITDA rotio.
Averoge CFO/EBITDA rotio of our universe (335 componies) increosed to 86% in FY09 lrom 4lo/o in FY08. However, it shorply delerioroted lo 58o/o in FY10 (o yeor choroclerized by heovy QIP ond IPO oction). Cleorly onolyst expectoiions in FYIO were significontly higher reloiive to FY09 given the bull morket
Coniingent liobilities (os o % of networth) increosed by 5Oo/o in FYl0. Agoin this might be o ploy to boosl profitobilily in q bull morket yeor. Given thot thot lhere is no requiremenl to show ony provisions in P&L on contingent liobilities, componies might hove preferred to clossify octuol liobilities os conlingent liobilities ond thereby shore up both their Bolonce Sheet ond P&1.
Miscelloneous expenses os % of revenues declined lrom 3.2o/o in FY09 in FYl0. Agoin this might be o ploy lo boosl up profitobility.
lo
2.5o/o
Olher loons qnd odvonces os % of networth increosed from I .4o/o in FY08 to 1.7o/o in FY09 ond hos since stoyed ot this level. Given thol since FY09, with the exception of the period from Morch-July 2OO9, roising fresh equity copitol hos been difficult, promoters might hove been motivoted to siphon out cosh from the listed entities to their own privoie componies using olher loon &
odvonces.
#nmnr
,l:rtry:tr ll rvl.!
for in this nole we hove discussed the link between occounting scores ond the investmenl performonce of seclors (Section 2) ond morkel cop buckets (Section 3). Obviously, the question orises "Do occounling scores drive inveslmenl performonce ol lhe stock level?"
Exhibir
BSE500
Exhibir 13: '"Vqluqtion vs Blended occounting scores qll stocks in the BSE500
y=-O.O298x+0.1239 R2 = 0.0003
r06
91
y=2.7128x+5.224 R2 = 0.0039
l5oo/o l00o/o
5Oo/o
Oo/o
5
EO g< EU o E
8_
q. IL
76
9, e.
=6146 r-L
3',r
-5OYo
'r6
,l
'tr
L
-r00%
-SOYo Oo/o
Source: Compo ny, Ambit Copifol
5oo/o
'l
007o l)
15OYo
r0
20
30
)
40
reseorch
lf you look ot fhe BSE500 os o whole (see the Exhibits obove) there does nol oppeor to be ony link between occounting scores ond shore price relurns.
However, when you drill down to the level of the sector ond compore stocks within relotionship emerges (the comporison becomes more "opples vs opples" thereby ollowing the power of occounling to drive shore prices). to come through between shore price performonce ond chonge in occounling score. Interestingly, we olso find thot componies with higher blended occounting score commond higher voluotions (see exhibit 15).
Exhibir 14: Shore prices vs S!g4g in qccounling scores (FY08-l I )" for the Mining seclor
Exhibir
occounling scores
y=O.7972x+0.2993
50o/o
= 0.I'l
'l
45o/o
I
4Oo/o 35%o
oo
t!
30o/o 25o/o
2Oo/o 15o/o
1Oo/o
8e co 9<
E
.L
Eo o
o o
5Yo
Oo/o
U 'tr
-1
5o/o -10o/o
5Yo
1234
Blended Accounling Score (FY08-1
Source: Compony, Ambit Copilol reseorch
1)
Ltd
#nmnr
.{rL,-en o! sgrl.
ln fioct it you toke this o dep further ond you look ot o specific size bucket within o seclor, fhe rekrtirxrship becomes even more striking - see lhe Exhibits below for lorge op lT sfocks" Therefore, ltre more you isolote fsc'lors such os sector ond the size of o comPony, lhe more cleorly 1., .on see the role of occounling quolity in driving shore prices.
Exhibir 16: "Shqre prices scores (FY08-1f )" for lT
4Oo/o 3Oo/o 2oo/o
I
vs !!g4g
in
occounting
y=0.1215x+O.0O32
R2
10.008:t
=
co
I
= 8 lL
p
loYo
OYo
15o/o
1Oo/o
lHCL 'Tech
5
o E o
I L
L
-ro,z"
8o'
76
-ror,
-3OYo
-4oo/o -soo/o
5o/o
Oo/o
o
-5o/o
2oo/o
4o"/,
o-
Oo/o
5o/o
lOo/o
*nmnr
5z Diving deeper
Componies
Exhibif
I8:
Seclors Miscelloneous
Reolty
IT
# in worst
(A)
8 '7 5
50
7o
of
,",
30
14 29
14o/o
lOYo
lOo/o
17Yo
4
4 4
3 2
2
tttg%
8o/o
't8
13
:22yo 31Yo
g%,.lr,:.:r:r.;1 60/o
rl
't0
26
19 23
{t%
12o/o 11Yo
9o/o
ls/s
4o/o ,'AYo
Copitol Goods
Agro
Retoil
' :l
2.:
2
1
1
7
8
29o/o 25o/o
t'17,o6 $Yo
4Yo
.2o/o
Telecom
6
12
Uiilities
2/o
204
ao/ 1/O
2o/o
12,'
8 7
3
lYo
13Yo
I
,l
Aulo
Consumer Duroble Mining
Logislics
14%
330/,
25o/o
Oo/o
I I
0
2Yo
2Yo
O%o
4 4
Cement
Fertilizers
0
0
0o/o
OYo
I
8
Oo/o
Oo/o
0
0
o%
OYo
Oo/o
Oo/o
l3
14 10 14 9
0
0
o%"
O%o
Oo/o
Oo/o
lnfroslruclure lndusiriols
Texliles
Source; Ambit Copitol reseorch.
0
0
0%:
Oo/o
Oo/o
Oo/o
Exhibii
l9:
Buckets
Buckel
I
# in worst
50
(A)
5 8
19
7o
of worsl 50
1Oo/o
bollom 50 (A/B)
1O/o
8o/o
160/o
r00 r00
85
199/o
18
21.% 15o/o
50
335
*nllsF
Miscelloneqrs fincludes componies ocross sectors like sugor, poper, Horels, Avioiion ond TrudirB) ond Reohy ore the biggest contributors to the boftom 50 list of componies.
Thot being soid, since sectors which hove o lorge number of componies in lhe BSE500 ore more likely ro hove o greoter presence in the bottom 50, o better woy lo gouge the occounlirg quolity of o seclor is to look ot the 'probobility of o compony in thnt sector being the BsE500'. This probobility is colculoted by dividing the number of entronts (from the sector) in the bottom 50 by the number of componies from thot sector in the BSE500. From this perspective, the two worst ploced sectors ore Reolty (507o probobility of o compony in this seclor being ronked omongsl "lvorsl 50" componies in lndio) ond Gonglomero le (4oo/o probobilify).
ln the cose of Reolry componies the weok occounting score seems ro be on occount of revenue monipulotion (CFO/EBITDA is low ond growth in oudit revenues) ond expense monipulotion
(contingent liobilities is high ond provision for doubtfu! debts is low).
of revenue monipulotion (cFo/EBlrDA is low ond growth in oudit fee is higher thon growth in revenues) ond expense monipulotion (chonge in
depreciotion rote ond provision for doubtful debts is low).
The weok occounting performonce of Reolty stocks (worst in the sector) is due to weok scores on the CFo/EBITDA metric. This is likely to be becouse of the following reosons:
. o
of lndion componies in the Reolty sector follow the 'percentoge of completion' method of recognizing revenues - o method which con be monipuloted by overstoting the percentoge of complelion.
9oo/o
These componies olso offer long credit periods. lf we onolyze ihe individuol rolios of componies we find thot Reolty componies seem to hove poor cosh
Ambit Copilol Ad
Ltd
*nMer
7:SoWhstShouldlnvestorsDo?
I
whilsrthekeyconcludirrgmessogefromouronolysisiscleor_occountingquolity f"nge for investors is twofold: impoct on irw"dment returns -it. lft"f
hos o cleor
.ight;;iffi
whot-the
'ond in"rid",, troding in porticulor)' which drive 'Thereoreotherospectsofcorporotegovernoncedistinctfromoccounting(eg. promoter i*"grt'ilg.i.i.f corporote governonce ore even more investment retu#s' These ospects of oPoque thol occounting'
clients, we offer two types of services: ln response io these chollenges focing our con their.portfolio composition with us, we For clients who ore willing to shore these componies. For scores of, shore with th.- trr" iizniJ o."orniing ihe underlying occounting scorls. we con highlight componies receiving weok for the BSE500 (exdo this only drivers of such scores. {Note: we .con we hove onolysed') iinoi"iol4 universe thot
Whilstinourongoingpublishedreseorchwewillfocusonthebrooderospecls ore interested in o deeper dive into of corporot. gor".nin[., io. .li.*s who service. our bespoke reseorch ot such issues, we provide o bespoke ,.r.o.ii onolysis of the the slock-specific level gives invesio"'i totp"h"nsive insider troding ond compelence promote/s integrity, b;oti "ornpo'ition ond potterns. should conioct our soles teom or the clients wishing to ovoil of these seryices
outhor of ihis note'
Ambit Copitol
PYt Lid
MBIT
Appendix I
Exhibit 20: list of componies excluded from our occounling themotic
SN Componies
SN
Componies
JSW ISPAT
I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
3M lndio
A2Z Moinlenonce
Abbott lndio
Adhunik Metol
81 85 86 87 88 89 90 9l
Jyothy Lob.
Doio nol lhere for FY I 1 os onnuol report nol reody Not listed for enlire lenure
BFSI
is
Komoloko Bonk
Kemrock Inds.
KF
Airlines
Kiri lndus.
K S Oils
Not lisled for ealire lenure Noi listed for entire tenure
Yeor end chonge in belween lhe periods
BFSI
KotokMoh. Bonk
l1 Aquo Logistics 'I 2 ARSS lnfro I3 Axis Bonk 14 Boioi Auto I5 Boioi Corp 16 Boioi Fin. I I Bolol Ftnserv 18 Boioi Holdings 19 Bolrompur Chini 20 Bonk of Borodo 2I Bonk of lndio 22 Bonk of Moho
23
24 Boyer Crop Sci.
BGR Energy Sys.
Bh.re
Not listed for enlire tenure Nol listed for enlire lenure
BFSI
Demerger
Cosh flow for FYI0 is nol ovoiloble. Also 92 Kirloskor Oil compony hos done demergining exercise 93 KSK EnergyVen. Noi listed for enlire lenure 94 L&T Fin.Holdings BFSI 95 LIC Housing Fin. BFSI 96 M&MFinonciol BFSI 97 Mogmo Fincorp BFSI 98 Mohindro Holidoy Not listed for enlire tenure 99 Monoppurom Fin. BFSI I00 Mox lndio BFSI 'l 0l Mindlree Not listed for entire tenure 'l 02 MOIL Not listed for entire tenure
BFSI
BFSI
103 Motil.Oswol.Fin. BFSI 104 MphosiS Yeor end chonge in between lhe periods
,l05
106
I
Muthoot Finonce
MVL
BFSI
Yeor end chongein belween the periods Not listed for entire tenure
BFSI
25 26 27 29
Circle Ser.
08
NHPC
Not listed ior enlire lenure Not listed for enlire lenure Not listed for enlire lenure
BOC lndio Brigode Enlerpr. Coirn lndio Cenlrol Sonk City Union Bonk
Oil lndio
Omoxe
Nol lisled for entire ienure Noi listed for entire ienure Nol listed lor entire lenure
BFSI BFSI BFSI
110
1 OnMobile Globol Not lisled for enlire ienure 1 12 Orbit Corpn. Not listed for enlire lenure
I
1
3r
32
l3 l4
Orientol Bonk
Porsvnoth Devl. PersisienlSys Pfizer
BFSI
Not lisied for enlire lenure Not listed for enlire lenure
Yeor end chonge in belween the periods
115
1
Clorionl Chemico Yeor end chonge in between the periods 34 Cool lndio Noi listed for enlire lenure 35 Corporotion Bonk Brst
33 36 Crisil
BFSI
16 117 1 18
I
PipovovDefence
l9
37 D B Corp
38 39 D B Reolty
Prroneto Inds.
PTC
2008 lo 31st Morch 2009 Dolo nol there {or FYl 'l os onnuol report nol reody
BFSI BFSI
BFSI
is
Noi listed for enlire lenure Nol listed for enlire lenure
BFSI BFSI BFSI
BFSI
lndio Fin
40 Den Nelworks
41
42 43 44 45 46
26 I27
'I
eClea Services
Edelweiss.Fin.
128
,l29
Religore Enlerp.
Rurol Elec.Corp.
Ambit Copltol
P\.t Ltd
*-EA MBIT
5N
17
48
Componies
Eicher Molors
Ess Dee
Reoson for Exclusion Yeor end chonge in belween the periods Not listed for enlire tenure
BFSI
SN Componies
r30 SBT
Alumin.
r3l Sh.Ashiovinoyok
132 Sh.Gtobolrrod.
19
50
Federol Bonk
F
3:;:J:?'n*'for
os onnuol report is
irstsour.Solu.
5l
52 53
Fortis Heolth.
Not listed for eniire tenure Not listed for enlire ienure
BFSI
Future Copilol
Future Venluies
133 Sh.Renuko Sugor Yeor end chonge in belween the periods r34 Shiv-Voni OilGos Yeor end chonge in belween the periods r35 Shree Gon.Jew. Not listed for enlire ienure 136 Shrirom 137
BFSI
Trons. SJVN
BFSI
57
58
Yeor end chonge in belween lhe periods DolE not lhere {or FYl 1 os onnuol repori is
59
60
61
HDFC
Hothwoy Coble
HDFC Bonk
112 St Bk of lndio
143 St Bk of Mysore
141 Stond.Chorl.PLC
145 Suiono Towers 146 Syndicote Bonk 147 Tolo lnv.Corpn. 148 Techno Etec.
BFSI
62
Hind. Unilever
Yeor end chonge in belween lhe periods Yeor end chonge from 31it Morch 09 to 30th
63 HFCL Sept 10 BFSI 64 IDFC BFSt 65 roB BFSI 66 lClCl Bonk Not listed for enlire lenure 67 ICRA BFSI 68 lDBl Bqnk BFSI 69 lFCl 70 lL&FS Tronsporl Not listed for enlire lenure 71 lndiobulls Fin. BFSI 72 lndiosecurities BFSI 73 lndiobulls Power Not listed for enlire lenure 74 lndiolnfoline BFSI BFSI 75 lndion Bonk lnduslnd Bonk BFSI 76 77 ING Vysyo Bonk BFSI 78 IRB lnfro.Devl' Not listed for enlire lenure 79 IVRCL Assets Not listed for enlire lenure BFSI 80 J&KBonk lnfrolec. Not listed for enlire lenure 8-l Joypee 82 JM Finonciol BFSI 83 JSW Holdings BFSI
Source: Ambil Copitol reseorch
orporole oction in FYl 0 149 Time Technoplost Not listed for enlire lenure 150 Titogorh Wogons Not listed for enlire tenure
151
Torrenl Power
152 Triven.Engg.lnd.
r53 Wl
Broodcosl
Yeor end chonge in belween the periods Yeqr end chonge lrom 3lst Morch 06 to 30th Sept 07 Not lisied for entire tenure
BFSI BFSI BFSI
is
Doto not there for FYI I os onnuol reporl Uniled breweries not reody Yeor end chonge in belween the periods 158 Videocon Inds.
159 Viloyo Bonk
BFSI
162 Wyeth
163 Yes Bonk
Not lisled for enlire tenure Yeqr end chonge in between the periods Yeor end chonge in belween the periods
BFSI
Not listed for entire tenure Demerger become effective from Feb'07
*nMsr
Appendix 2
HrLil 2l:
Stl
Nome of the
ies included in our themcrtic
Ambit
Corqonies
Ambit Sector
SN
Componies
Sector
SN
Componies
Akzo Nobel
Ambit Seclor
Chemicols
2 DrRedd/s Lobs Phormo Oil & Gos 3 CPCt ,f Adrt),u 8ir. Nuv. Conglomerote Textiles 5 Roymond lT 6 Mcer Boer (l) Melols 7 Jindd Sroin. Chemicols 8 Finolex lnds. 9 Finolex Cobles lnduslriols 10 Ponoceo Eiolec Phormo 1l Roiesh Exporfs Retoil Retoil 12 Shoppers St. 13 Rd. lndl. lrrfio lnfroslructure 14 NoidoTollbridg. lnfrostruclure 15 Hexowore Tech. 1T I6 Alslom Proiects Copilol Goods Utilities 17 CESC ' Medio 18 HTMediq 19 Bhorol Eleclron lnduslriols
227 Ashok Leylond Aulo Melols I 15 Hind.Zinc .l16 Rollis lndio Oil & Gos 228 HPCL Agro Copilol Goods Conglomerole 229 Kirl. Brothers lnds 117 Grosim Melols Copitol Goods 23O Joi Boloii lnds. 118 BHEL lnduslriols 231 AIA Engg. FMCG I 19 Toto Coffee lnfroslruclure 232 Essor Ports 12O Zydus Wellness FMCG '121 Jindol Poly Film Miscelloneous 233 HEG Copitol Goods Copitol Goods 234 Arevo T&D Utiliti* 122 JSW Energy Telecom 123 Bolmer Lowrie Miscelloneous 235 Rel. Comm 236 Wolchon. lnds. Copitol Goods '124 Conloiner CorPn. Logisiics 237 Elecon Engg.Co Copilol Goods lT 125 Geodesic 238 Tulip Telecom lT Auio Anc lndio 126 Timken Consiruction Copitol Goods 239 Gommon lndio 127 ABB 24O Piromol Heolth Phormo 128 Toto Chemicols Chemicols 24'l Dredging Corpn. Shipping Mining 129 NMDC Copitol Goods 242 KEClnil. Reolry 130 DLF 243 Gulf Oil Corpn. Chemicols Cemenl l3l Birlo Corpn. 244 Neweli Lignite Utilities 132 HCL Technologies lT lnfroslructure 20 GMR lnfro. 'I Metols Goods 245 Bhushon Sleel 33 Cummins lndio Copilol Oil & Gos 21 0NGc 246 Holel Leelo Ven. Miscelloneous Medio 134 Jogron Prokoshon Feriilizers 22 GNFC Aulo 247 M&M Aulo Anc I35 MRF Metols 23 Usho Mortin Miscelloneous 248 Uflex Melols 136 Jindol Steel Telecom 24 Toto Comm Conglomerole Copitol Goods 249 Adoni EnlerP 137 Bhorot Biilee Oil & Gos MRPL 25 25O Aurobindo Phormo Phormo 138 Ambuio Cem. Cement 26 Engineers lndio Conslruclion Melols 251 Monnet lsPol Phormo 139 Biocon 27 Tech Mohindro lT Miscelloneous 252 Blue Slor 140 Gui Fluorochem Chemicols 28 Jubilonl Food. Retoil 253 Sodbhov Engg. Conslruclion Feriilizers Consumer Duroble '141 Deepok Fert. 29 VlPlnds. 254 Peninsulo Lond Reohy Aulo Anc 142 Bosch Ferlilizers 30 GSFC lndustriols 255 Eleclrosl.Cosi. Amoro Roio Bott, Aulo Anc Consumer Duroble 143 31 TTK Preslige Melols Miscelloneous 256 Hind.CoPPer 144 AP Poper Retoil 32 Tiion lnds. 257 Himodri Chemicol Chemicols 145 Dishmon Phormo. Phormo 33 DCHoldings Medio 258 Kolpotoru Power CoPitol Goods Melols 146 Ullom Golvo Melols 34 JSW Steel 259 Jyoli Slruclures Copitol Goods lT 147 Rollo lndio lT 35 3i lnfotech 260 Orchid Chemicols Phormo 148 Novortis lndio Phormo Chemicols 36 Coslrol lndio Phormo 149 Elgi Equipment Copitol Goods 261 Ronboxy Lobs Indusiriols 37 Hovells lndio 262 lngersoll-Rond Copitol Goods lT ]50 Tolo Elxsi Copitol Goods 38 Thermox .l51 Phoenix Mills Miscelloneous 263 Oplo Circuiis ReoltY FMCG 39 Nestle lndio 264 HCL lnfosyslems lT Melols 152 Sterlile lnds. Auio Anc 40 Fog Beorings 265 Modhucon Proi. Construction 153 Oberoi Reolty ReohY Fertilizers 41 RCF lnduslriols 266 Sinlex lnds. 154 Everesl Konlo lndustriols Telecom Bhorti Airlel 42 FMCG 267 Toto Globol 155 Mcleod Russel Agro 43 Heidelberg Cem. Cemenl Conglomerote 268 JP Associoles lT ]56 NllT Tech" 44 Torrent Phormo. Phormo Miscelloneous 269 Jei Airwoys Textiles 157 Arvind Ltd 45 Notl. Aluminium Melols Texliles 27O Alok lnds. 46 Whirlpool lndio consumer Duroble 158 Coromondel lnier Ferlilizers 'I 271 Vordhmon Textile Textiles lT 59 lnfosys Cemenl 47 ACC 272 Vokrongee Sofl. lT 160 Monsonlo lndio Agro Miscelloneous 48 EIH Aulo 273 Escorts l.obs. Phormo IT 161 Unichem 49 Poloris Finon 274 McNolly Bhorot Copilol Goods 162 Toto Power Co. Utilities 50 Century Textiles Conglomerole 275 Glodyne Techno. lT 1 63 lnfolech EnlerP. lT 5l Abon Offshore Shipping Fertilizers 276 Zuori lnds. 164 Sun Phormo.lnds. Phormo Hero MolocorP Aulo 52 277 Rodico Khoiton FMCG FMCG 165 Emomi Melols 53 Toto Steel Reolty 278 Unitech Chemicols 166 BASF lndio 54 Hind.Oil Explor. Oil & Gos 279 Gui NRE Coke Mining 167 Gloxosmit Phormo Phormo 55 lndroproslho Gos Utilities Conslruclion 280 Simplex lnfro 168 Lok. Moch. Works lndustriols Mining 56 GMDC
lnfroslructure 226
*nmPp
SN 57
Componies
Gui.St.Petronet Shree Cement Power Grid Corpn
Exide lnds. GAIL (lndio)
Ambit Sector
Oil & Gos
Cement Utilities
SN
Componies
Jubilont
Ambit Sector
Phormo
SN
Gomponies
Dish
Ambit Seclor
Medio Utilities
FMCG
58 59 60
't69 170
17'l
281
BPCL
JP Power Ven.
6l
62 63
172
't73 174 175
't7 6
64
65
66 67
68 69
GloxoSmith C H Gommon lnfro. Colgote-Polm. Notl.Ferlilizer lndio Cemenis ldeo Cellulor Bollorpur lnds.
FDC
FMCG
lnfroslruclu re
FMCG Fertilizers
Hind.Consiruct.
Everonn Educol.
Chemicols
Textiles
IT
288
289
't77
178 179
Bomboy Dyeing
NIIT
Join lrrigotion Lorsen & Toubro Sobho Developer Ero ln{ro Engg.
Cox & Kings CORE Educotion
Cemenl
Telecom
290
291
Conslruciion Miscelloneous
IT
Bolkrishno lnds
Divi's Lob.
Aulo Anc
Phormo
IT
Miscelloneous
Phormo FMCG
't80
r81 182
183
Wipro
Siemens Lupin
70
71
Britonnio lnds.
Petronet LNG
Copilol Goods
Phormo
72 73 74 75
Orienl Poper
Mercoior Gui Alkolies
184
r85
186 187
Conglomerote Miscelloneous
I
nfrostruclu re
SAIL
Codilo Heolth.
VST lnds.
Melols
Phormo FMCG
76 77
78 79
r88
't 'r
89
90
80
81
82
83 84 85 86 87
88
Supreme lnds. Hindolco lnds. Goiewoy Dislr. Greol Offshore Seso Goo GE Shipping Co Sterlite Tech. Gui Gos Compony
lndustriols Melols
Logistics
191
Miscelloneous Chemicols
IT
192
193
Bilcore
Miscelloneous
IT
lnfo Edg.(lndio)
scl
Sundrom Foslen. Thomos Cook (l) Koruluri Globol Novneel Publicot WS Motor Co. Gillette lndio Zee Entertoinmen Godrei Consumer Glenmork Phormo Moiherson Sumi
Relionce lnds.
Utililies
IT IT
98
cMc
Potni Computer
199
200
201
Auio
FMCG
292 TVRCL 293 NCC 294 Prestige Eslotes 295 Bhoroti Shipyord 296 Redington lndio 297 Essor Oil 298 Bomboy Royon 299 Adoni Power 300 S Kumors Nolion 301 Gitonloli Gems 302 CCCL 303 Joi Corp 304 Boioi Hindusthon 305 Tube lnvestments 306 Purovonkor.Proi. 3O7 Anonl Roi lnds. 308 Poiel Engg. 309 Provogue (lndio) 3lO Puni Lloyd 3]1 Ponioloon Retoil 312 BEML LTd
Construclion Conslruction
Reoliy
I
nfrostruclu re
IT
Utiliries
Textiles
Conslruction
Retoil
Construclion
Retoil
89 90
9l
92 93 94 95 96
Prokosh lnds.
313 rocL
31
Medio
FMCG Phormo
206
207
tTc
208
209
97 98 99 I00 l 0l
lndion Holels
Miscelloneous
FMCG
P&GHygiene
Copitol Goods
Aulo
Aulo Anc
Retoil
Boioi Electricol
MMTC GVK Power lnfro. Proi lnds. EID Porry Polyplex Corpn
Miscelloneous
lnfroslructu re
103 .l04
'I
1
ABG Shipyord
lnfroslructure
FMCG
2't5
216
217 218 219
Dobur lndio
.l07
05 06
Moruti Suzuki
NTPC
Aulo
Uiilities
IT
Ciplo Morico
I08
109
1
Chemicols Cemenl
IT
220
10 11 ll2
Apollo Tyres
Auto Anc
Kesorom lnds. 221 Corborundum Uni. 222 Arshiyo lntl. 223 Uniled Spirits
314 Finonciol Tech. 5 SpiceJet 316 ICSA (lndio) 317 Delto Corp 318 Trenl 319 STC 320 Godrei lnds. 32'l Mohindro Life. 322 HMT 323 Fres.Kobi Onco. 324 MTNL 325 REI Agro 326 U B Holdings 327 HDIL 328 PTC lndio 329 Kwolity Doiry 330 Ansol Properties 33] Subex 332 Godrei Propert. 333 KGN lndustries 334 335
UW Softwore
Sunteck Reohy
Miscelloneous
IT
'Conglomerole
Retoil
Miscelloneous Conglomeroie
Reolty
lnd ustrio ls
Phormo Telecom
Agro Conglomerole
Reolty
Miscelloneous
FMCG
Reohy
IT
Reolty
Miscelloneous Medio
Reoliy
JBChem&Phorm Phormo
224
Educomp Sol.
Miscelloneous