Professional Documents
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IBS HYDERABAD
2011
Project Prepared by: NEELAM MANDOWARA (10BSPHH010444) HARSH MODI (10BSPHH010265) MANSI MATELA (10BSPHH010) MILAN DHODIA (10BSPHH010) INDER GARG (10BSPHH010280) KUNAL BASU (10BSPHH010352)
10/9/2011
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We take this proud privilege to acknowledge gracefully the help we received from different sources in preparation of this report. We are highly obliged to Mr. R. K. JAIN, our professor and faculty for Security Analysis at IBS Hyderabad for giving us a chance to work in this project and providing us a comfortable work environment and his continued guidance throughout the project. This would not have been possible without his sincerity and dedication towards the subject ad helping us all the way through.
I would also like to extend my thanks to all my colleagues for the assistance, support and the suggestions, throughout which have been valuable to me, and for providing a friendly work atmosphere with healthy competition throughout the project.
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Foreign entities o o Foreign Institutional Investors registered with SEBI Foreign citizens/entities are however now allowed to invest in India.
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Classification Based on type of Structure: 1. Open - Ended Schemes: An open-end fund is one that is available for subscription all through the year. These do not have a fixed maturity. Investors can conveniently buy and sell units at Net Asset Value ("NAV") related prices. The key feature of open-end schemes is liquidity. 2. Close - Ended Schemes: These schemes have a pre-specified or stipulated maturity period. One can invest directly in the scheme at the time of the initial issue. Depending on the structure of the scheme there are two exit options available to an investor after the initial offer period closes. Investors can transact (buy or sell) the units of the scheme on the stock exchanges where they are listed. The market price at the stock exchanges could vary from the net asset value (NAV) of the scheme on account of demand and supply situation, expectations of unit holder and other market factors. Alternatively some close-ended schemes provide an additional option of selling the units directly to the Mutual Fund through periodic repurchase at the schemes NAV; however one cannot buy units and can only sell
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Investors
Via Pool their Agents/Distributors money withpool their or directly, money with
Return
Fund Managers
Invest in
Creates
Securities
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MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTMENTS 2011 Revenue Expense Model of Mutual Funds Revenue
Entry Fee: Till August 2009, Mutual Funds used to charge entry fee to the investors but after that it was banned by SEBI. This fee was used to be around 2.25% of NAV. As a back door imposition of entry load, SEBI in Aug 2011 imposes initial transaction fees as explained below Initial Transaction Fee: SEBI passed a circular in Aug 2011 stating that new investors will pay Rs. 150 and existing investors will pay Rs. 100 for investment of >= Rs. 10,000 . The payment will be to the distributor. Expense Ratio / Annual Maintenance Charges: Depend on the type of fund and size of fund. As per SEBI regulations, maximum charges for Equity funds is 2.5% and Debt funds is 2.25% of total AUM in a year. The charges decrease with increase in fund corpus and finally capped at 1.75% for Equity funds and 1.5% for Debt funds each with a corpus of exceeding Rs. 900 crores. These charges are automatically deducted from investors' NAV on daily basis. For index funds and ETFs, the expense ratio is capped at 1.5% irrespective of corpus accumulated. On an average Expense Ratio varies between 1.25% and 1.5%. Exit Fee / Backend Load: Around 1% of total redemption value is charged if the investor withdraw within 1 year. This is to bring down the frequency of withdrawal from funds.
Expenses
Brokerage or Trading Fee: It also includes the Securities Transaction Tax in it. Brokerage fee is not incurred in expense ratio, instead it goes to the cost of the security. But there are chances that Mutual Funds might have to incorporate this into their expense ratios. (source: CNBC-TV18) Fund's Advisor Fee Marketing and Advertising Costs Administrative Fees Distribution Fee / Agent Commission
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The school of thought when investing in mutual funds suggests that the longer the investment time horizon of the investor less is he/she affected by short-term volatility. Hence, shorter the investment time horizon, the more concerned the investor is with short-term volatility and higher is the risk. Different mutual fund categories have inherently different risk characteristics, the risks are based on the investments an investor holds, as show in figure below:
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For example, a bond fund faces interest rate risk and income risk. Bond values are inversely proportional to interest rates. If interest rates go up, bond values will go down and vice versa. Bond income is also affected by the change in interest rates. Bond yields are directly related to interest rates falling as interest rates fall and rising as interest rise. Income risk is greater for a short-term bond fund than for a long-term bond fund. Similarly, a sector stock fund (which invests in a single industry, such as telecommunications) is at risk that its price will decline due to developments in its industry. A stock fund that invests across many industries is more sheltered from this risk defined as industry risk. Types of risks associated with Mutual Funds 1. Call Risk The chance that a bond issuer to call its high yielding bond before the bonds maturity because of falling interest rates in the market 2. Credit Risk The possibility that a bond issuer will fail to repay interest and principal in a timely manner also called as default risk
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Liquidity
If you want your money to be available to you easily in time of need, go for an open-ended scheme. However, if you are okay with your money not being available to you quickly and easily and would rather remain invested, a close-ended scheme is suitable. Another way of looking at liquidity is the size of the money collected (corpus) by the scheme and the type of investments of that scheme. If the corpus is very small, there is a risk of the Fund Manager being forced to sell during a rush for redemptions. However, if there is a large corpus, the Fund Manager can handle this situation easily. By the type of investments, one means that a money market scheme will be more liquid than an equity scheme. Money market instruments are sellable easily and very quickly. Hence money market schemes can return your money within 2 working days whereas an equity scheme will take between 4 to 7 working days.
Specific needs
Over and above risk taking ability and liquidity needs, an investor may have specific needs such as saving of taxes (for which he can invest in a tax saving Mutual Fund scheme) or wanting to invest in a stock market index (for which he should invest in an index scheme). Mutual Funds have devised a number of schemes catering to these specific needs.
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indicating the number of units allotted to you, the purchase date, the cost of your investment ( your entry NAV) and the current value of your investment (i.e. the NAV on date the account statement was made).
TAX
There are no tax implications while investing in Mutual Funds except while investing in Tax saving schemes of Mutual Funds. These schemes are specifically designed to offer tax rebate to investors under section 88 of the Income Tax Act. Rs 1 lakh can be invested under this section without any sublimits. Investment in pension funds under section 80CCC can still be up to a maximum of Rs 10,000 and treated as a part of investments of Rs 1 lakh under section 80CCE.For individuals who are looking for more returns from their investments, can move away from low-return infrastructure bonds. Earlier they were bound to purchase for Rs 30,000 for getting maximum tax benefits. If they are close-ended, they are listed after the initial 3 year lock in. For instance, on 31st March 2008, X invested Rs. 10,000 in Prudential ICICI Mutual Funds Tax Saving Scheme. X will receive a tax rebate of Rs. 2,000 for the Financial year ended 31 st March 2001 and will have to stay invested in Prudential-ICICI Mutual Funds scheme up to 31st March 2011. If he sells, transfers or pledges his units during this time he will be taxed on his investment of Rs. 10,000 in the same year that he sells, transfers or pledges his units.
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elaborated with an example below: You bought units of a mutual fund 1 Jan 2010 Appreciation in the NAV( 21.00 14.00 = 7.00) Total Appreciation value is 1000 x 7.00 = 7,000.00 Total Appreciation to your credit = 8,000.00 (Appreciation in NAV + dividends, 7000 + 1000) %age Appreciation = 57.14% Since Investment is held for 1 year there is no question of having to annualize the return.
Reinvesting Dividend
When an investor opts to have the dividend declared and reinvested back into the scheme he gets additional units to the extent of the dividend declared. Reinvestment of the dividend happens at the prevailing NAV. This changes the cost of his investment. Return in this case has to take into account both these aspects. This is enumerated with example below: On 30th September 2000, the same Mutual Fund declared a dividend of 10% (1000 units x 10%). You have chosen to have this 62.5 units dividend reinvested back into the scheme at the prevailing Nav of Rs.16.00. Rs. 16.00 ( i., e NAV on 30th September 2010. You receive additional units (Dividend due/NAV on 30th Sep2010). The NAV of each unit of hi was on RS.21.00, on 31st Dec10. Appreciation in the NAV (RS.7.00, Rs.21-14) Total Appreciation value is 1000 x 7.00 = 7,000.00 Total Appreciation to your credit = 8,000.00
(Appreciation in NAV + dividends, 7000 + 1000) Appreciation in NAV of new Units i., e units received on reinvested (21-16).
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MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTMENTS 2011 Investment Inflows and Outflows in Mutual Funds
There are 44 Mutual Funds Houses registered with SEBI in India which generate and invest this corpus of funds.
The Average Assets Under Management (AAUM) of the Indian mutual fund industry has witnessed a decrease on a year on year basis, on account of substantial outflows from equity, liquid and income schemes.
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The GDP to AUM Ratio is around 10% for India which is very low compared to other developed nations with this ratio being from 20 % to 70 %. The industry needs to focus on inclusion of the rural sector in mutual fund industry as mentioned in detail below. This also gives us an insight that the industry has a lot of scope to grow and is far from saturation.
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As seen in the above table, corporate is the major investors in the mutual fund industry. Followed by the retail investors, thus the industry must focus on spreading awareness among the general population in order to gain a larger pie from the retail investors. HNIs are not far behind in terms of contributing to the mutual fund investments. Banks, Financial Institutions and Foreign Institutional Investors are minimal investors.
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Simplification of Offer Documents & Key Information Memorandum recently further simplified.
Certification Test for Agent Distributors, code of conduct for AMCs & Distributors. Uniform Cut-off Time for applicability of NAVs. Benchmark indices for comparing performance of Mutual funds. Comprehensive Risk Management System.
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The Indian Mutual fund industry has witnessed considerable growth since its inception in 1963. The assets under management (AUM) have surged to Rs 4,173 bn in Mar-09 from just Rs 250 mn in Mar65. In a span of 10 years (from 1999 to 2009), the industry has registered a CAGR of 22.3%, albeit encompassing some shortfalls in AUM due to business cycles. The impressive growth in the Indian Mutual fund industry in recent years can largely be attributed to various factors such as rising household savings, comprehensive regulatory framework,
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1. Birla Sunlife Mutual Funds 2. DSP Black Rock Mutual Funds 3. Fidelty Mutual Funds 4. Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund Investments 5. HDFC Mutual Funds 6. ICICI Prudential Mutual Funds 7. Kotak Mahindra Mutual Funds 8. Sundaram Mutual Funds 9. Tata Mutual Funds 10. SBI Mutual Funds 11. UTI Mutual Funds 12. Reliance Mutual Funds
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The table shows the highest standard deviation in case of Reliance, i.e. 10.5%, followed by ICICI (9.5%), thus showing a high degree of risk associated with them. The others are more or less of the same risk class having their standard deviations between the range of 7.8% - 9%
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Where, Cov(i,m) is the covariance of the funds returns with the markets returns and Var(m) is the variance of the market returns. An average well diversified portfolio will have a beta of 1.0, i.e. it fluctuates in a similar fashion as the market index does. Funds having beta more than 1.0, show above average volatility and thus a sign of greater risk. Portfolio having beta less than 1.0 is considered to be a defensive portfolio that invests primarily in slow moving stocks. The following table shows the calculated Beta () of the selected Index Funds: Beta () BIRLA SUNLIFE DSPBR FIDELITY FRANKLIN HDFC ICICI KOTAK SUNDARAM TATA SBI UTI RELIANCE 0.805352 0.925317 0.854562 0.864371 0.911220 0.966426 0.888937 1.046436 0.945825 0.962436 0.910732 0.565029
It is clear from the table that almost all the funds, except Reliance and Sundaram, have Beta in the range of 0.8 0.96, while reliance has the lowest of 0.5 and Sunadaram has the highest beta of 1.04. However, risk cannot be evaluated alone, without taking into consideration the respective returns.
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Looking at both the returns as well as the risks associated, we can conclude that ICICI Index funds are the best bet for an investor, as it has given the highest returns over the past 5 years of 26% (CAGR), and have a beta of 0.96. a beta close to 1.0 indicates that it fluctuates in synch with the market, but however, gives a much higher return. DSPBR has the lowest returns and a high beta, making it he most unattractive bet for an investor. Reliance Mutual funds Index fund has a low beta as well as a low return of 11.8%. A highly risk averse investor would be willing to invest in such a type of portfolio.
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While a high and positive Treynor's Index shows a superior risk-adjusted performance of a fund, a low and negative Treynor's Index is an indication of unfavorable performance. The following table shows the calculated Treynors Ratio of the selected Index Funds: Treynor's Index (Ti) BIRLA SUNLIFE DSPBR FIDELITY FRANKLIN HDFC ICICI KOTAK SUNDARAM TATA SBI UTI RELIANCE 0.200721 0.034744 0.190754 0.176462 0.203851 0.221343 0.135752 0.109397 0.122603 0.125768 0.135904 0.118097
Since all the selected funds have a positive Teynors Ratio, we can conclude that all of them have been able to outperform the market. All the funds have provided adequate return to investor per unit risk taken, with ICICI being the best among others and DSPBR the worst. Treynors Ratio is also known as Reward to Volatility Ratio.
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While a high and positive Sharpe Ratio shows a superior risk-adjusted performance of a fund, a low and negative Sharpe Ratio is an indication of unfavorable performance. The following table shows the calculated Sharpes Ratio of the selected Index Funds: Sharpes Ratio (Si) BIRLA SUNLIFE DSPBR FIDELITY FRANKLIN HDFC ICICI KOTAK SUNDARAM TATA SBI UTI RELIANCE 1.148202 1.182093 1.288668 1.297091 1.296891 1.187196 1.294980 1.286248 1.307270 1.253997 1.228771 0.632617
A higher Sharpes ratio means a higher volatility of portfolio return. The positive Sharpe Ratio of all the selected funds shows that the risk taken by an investor of the respective funds have been rewarded by adequate returns. Sharpes ratio is also thus known as Risk to Reward Ratio.
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Where, Ra is the average return of the portfolio for a particular period, Rf is the risk free rate, Beta of the portfolio and Rm is the market return for that particular period.
is the
If the fund fares better than predicted, it has a positive alpha & vice-versa. Higher alpha represents superior performance of the fund and vice versa. The following table shows the calculated Jensens Alpha () of the selected Index Funds: Jenson's Alpha () BIRLA SUNLIFE DSPBR FIDELITY FRANKLIN HDFC ICICI KOTAK SUNDARAM TATA SBI UTI RELIANCE 0.066835 -0.076791 0.062402 0.050765 0.078473 0.100132 0.016019 -0.008722 0.004606 0.007734 0.016550 0.000206
A higher positive Alpha () indicates better performance. Again ICICI emerges as the best investment option as it has the highest alpha among the selected funds, which indicates that it is providing a highly excessive return than the market. Also, DSPBR and Sundaram have a negative alpha, and Reliance has an alpha of 0.0002, which is very near to Zero. This indicates that DSPBR and Sundaram have been giving lesser returns than the market while reliances returns have been comparable to the market return.
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The following table gives a comparative picture of all the selected funds vis--vis the measures used to evaluate their performance. Standard Deviation () BIRLA SUNLIFE DSPBR FIDELITY FRANKLIN HDFC ICICI KOTAK SUNDARAM TATA SBI UTI RELIANCE 0.083 0.092 0.078 0.078 0.083 0.096 0.081 0.096 0.085 0.090 0.087 0.105 Required Return (Ri) 21.37% 8.42% 21.51% 20.46% 23.78% 26.60% 17.28% 16.66% 16.80% 17.31% 17.59% 11.88% Beta () 0.81 0.93 0.85 0.86 0.91 0.97 0.89 1.05 0.95 0.96 0.91 0.57 Sharpe Ratio (Si) 1.148 1.182 1.289 1.297 1.297 1.187 1.295 1.286 1.307 1.254 1.229 0.633 Jenson's Alpha () 0.067 -0.077 0.062 0.051 0.078 0.100 0.016 -0.009 0.005 0.008 0.017 0.000 Treynor's Index (Ti) 0.201 0.035 0.191 0.176 0.204 0.221 0.136 0.109 0.123 0.126 0.136 0.118
The whole analysis depicts a very high preference for ICICI Index funds as all the measures used give a positive picture for this fund as far as high returns and low risks are concerned. Also, in the past five years, the fund has constantly outperformed the market and has been able to give higher returns as compared to the other funds. Also DSPBR has shown the worst performance over the years, and is not a good option for a rational investor to invest in such a portfolio. It has shown a low return of just 8%, a negative alpha of -0.077, and a high standard deviation as well. Thus it is not advisable to invest in DSPBR. Another observation has been made for Reliance Index Funds. Over the years, this fund has been performing almost at par with the market. Also, a low beta of 0.57 shows a low volatility to market fluctuations and thus a lower risk. Thus reliance index funds are a safe bet for a risk- averse investor. The other funds taken in the analysis have a similar performance pattern in terms of risk and return.
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56.08 2009-10
43.15 2015-16
Source: NCAER
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Research Papers
In this section, we have covered briefly the research papers over Indian mutual funds industry. Please note that we have avoided the articles which are just literature or theory. Here we have shown papers which have done some experiment, analysis, survey, etc. Downside Risk Analysis of Indian Equity Mutual Funds: A Value at Risk Approach by Soumya Guha Deb & Ashok Banerjee, 2009 Soumya & Ashok attempt to show the importance of VAR as a single downside risk measure for Indian equity mutual funds which is being ignored currently. They used three parametric models (random walk, moving average and exponentially weighted moving average) and one non parametric model (historical simulation) to predict the VAR and also tested its robustness through back testing. The study shows considerable downside risk in terms of VAR to the tune of 40% to 90% at 99% level of confidence. Market Timing Ability of Selected Mutual Funds in India: A Comparative Study by B Phaniswara Raju & K Mallikarjuna Rao, Mar 2009 Raju and Rao explored the market timing ability of selected Indian mutual fund managers using two models Treynor and Mazuy & Henriksson and Merton. The results indicate that a majority of the selected mutual fund scheme managers are not seriously engaged in any market timing activities and are relying mainly on stock selection skills. Further, fund managers of private sector exhibited better market timing as per Henriksson and Merton model. The same results have been found in studies done in
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