The Dominoes of Syria in Arab Spring

Management & Resolution Of International Conflict
FARID ASWAN ISMAIL 202302
The Dominoes Of Syria In Arab Spring: Conflict Management And Resolution.
INTRODUCTION Syria seems to being infected by the Arab spring indeed. The background of Syria as an authoritarian government that has rule for almost five decade shows some similarity with the country that have fall into the same fate as Egypt and Libya. People of Syria now are enthusiastically looking for democracy that they doubt to understand and lost since their independence. They are searching for new hope to shine democracy by using a new tools and weapon which is, Facebook, Youtube and Twittter. This is the real weapon of mass destruction that hunt most of authoritarian government so far, at least for the Libya, Egypt and Syria.. United States and their partners are putting a hard effort on solving this issues. However does it come along without any reward? In my opinion ,the conflict in Syria will have the same ending with what happen in Libya and Egypt which is the hard recovery after the war and closely fail into the degree of fail state according to Fund For Peace Country Analysis And Indicators And Their Measures .This change of ranking can significantly being observe especially after U.S and his allies join the conflict and their are ranked as 111 out of 177 of Failed State Index (FSI) . Syria are joining the wagon where there at the ranking 48 out of 177. ( The smaller the numbers, the worst the country are ) . This essay will be divided into three part 1) The Arab Spring Dominoes effect towards Syria. 2) International Interference and effort to solve the conflict. 3) The Syria forecast and speculation. The idea that wanted to be justify is that, Syria will face the same situation as what as happen in Libya and Egypt if the conflict management and resolution did not obey he condition of conflict negotiation that being mention by Allport . (1954)
Theories of Conflict Resolution There are important aspect that were highlighted by Allport (1954) that set condition that crucial to ensure the negotiation is effective : (1) members of the conflicting groups must have the opportunity to get to know each other on a personal level.(2) Contact must take place in a cooperative environment where interdependence between groups in achieving superordinate goal is encourage ; (3) the contact must be sanctioned by an authority ( See the study of Deutsch and Collins 1951 ) ; and (4) There must be equal status between groups during the contact situation ( Tal-Or, Boninger and Glenicher 2002:90). It is comfirm by other study that if the list of condition that mention by Allports were absence,the process of negotiaon toward the resolution of conflict will become awkward prejudices (Sheriff, Harvey , Hood and Sherif 1961 cited by J. Bercovitch and J.Chalfin pp.14) What is International Conflict? International relation is much more related to the conflict. Issues of international relation will largely involve the discussion on conflict that involve international actor such as States and Inter-State actor and MNC . For example NATO as interstate actor. According to Butler & Michael J. ( 2009) They mention that Conflict is simply are form of social
conflicts , and bear all the hallmark thereof .The conflict are also change and dynamic in nature rather than static . Therefore in conflict resolution and management will largely in the scope of the attempt of third party to solve the conflict in managing, containing, limiting the use of armed violence by third parties and the attempt will broad a positive impact to the conflict. However in the event of ill conceived, inappropriate, poorly timed, or half entered effort at conflict management can affect the other way around. (Butler & Michael J. 2009 pp.13) From that we can see that they are dichotomy on resolving the conflict on international
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relation. Some action can bring positive development on the conflict are will move to the peace process and some other action will made the conflict even much worsen. Therefore, it looks so simple in just list down the dos and donts in the conflict. However does it have any specific list of it. One of the biggest concern in conflict is that it were consist on the factors of uncertainty. Just like being mention by Donald Rumsfeld the secretary of defense of United States highlighting the things we dont know. The statement cited by Darryl S.L. Jarvis mention that;. . the truth is, there are things we know, and we know we know them the knowns. There are things we know that we don't know the known unknowns. And there are unknown unknowns; the things we do not yet know that we do not know. The uncertainty and risk occurs not only for the weak parties involve in conflict but also even if we are in strong position. The element of uncertainty will always occur in every position. The decisions of United States Foreign Policy were also related to the uncertainty and the preparedness of the uncertainty. Some scholars classified uncertainty as the fog of war. Resolving the Syria Conflict In resolving conflicting parties, scholar of Social Psychological theories is still some of the most significant impact on the group of the conflicting parties , particular the conflict between two groups or actors. According to J.Bercovitch and J. Chalfin (2011) one of the most important element of conflict negotiation because it will influce perception such as threats, trust and hostility. They added that they more contact can create more conflict and less contact will create less conflict. (J.Bercovitch and J. Chalfin (2011)). From this understand we can take example of a conflict between two parties that occurs. For example as the relation between Malaysia and Singapore as a neighboring countries would always find
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themselves of having various conflict because both parties keep contacting each other in term of trade , socially, culturally and share geopolitical condition. Therefore conflict can occurs . However compare to the relation between Malaysia and Zimbabwe that rarely made contact and geographically so much far away between each other, less contact occurs therefore it will led to the less conflict or non. As cited by Bercovitch, J.The ideas of direct contact also mention by Charles Osgood (1962) and Herbert Kelmen recognizes the psychological nature of international relations, and the important of direct contacts in conflicts.( J.Bercovitch pp.13). Type Conflict That Emerge In Syria In my opinion, the conflict in Syria has been escalated to as Civil War and Guerilla War. Civil War is referring to war between factions within a state trying to create, or prevent a new government for the entire States or some territorial part of it. (Joshua S.Goldstein pp.155). These conditions were exactly happen when the Baath Party as the government were being opposed by the Sunni movement called Muslim Brother Hood and other opposition party that create Free Syrian Army. Free Syria Army was the fraction of Syrian armed forces that defect from it. The government that led by Bashar Al-Assad is from the minorities of Alawites while the majorities are from the Sunni Muslim Islamist. Civil war is as brutal as other war which come from hatred and sometimes regard as the most Brutal wars. People even though fighting with their own fellow citizen but they act no less cruelly than those fighting people from the other state. On the other hand, the conflict in Syria also brought into Guerrilla war. The Free Syrian Army choose the guerilla tactic attacking building and convoy as they are weak and have only light weapon to use gains the government (,,,). The Guerilla a war without the frontline. Irregular forces operate in midst of, and often hidden or protected by, civilian populations. The guerilla does not confront directly
with the government forces and the mission is to make the enemy weak. (Joshua pp.15-16 )This some of the method use by Free Syrian Army and also with the involve of Al-Qaeda in Suicide bomber attack. MAIN BODY 1) THE ARAB SPRING DOMINOES EFFECT TOWARDS SYRIA The conflicts that emerge in Syria have a lot of similarity that can be shared with other Arab Country. Some scholars said the Arab world is now in spring to a better community that uphold the value of democracy and will become the spark of new era . The era they meant is freedom of speech, freedom of election, free and fair election and other form of basic right. Syria have the potential of having the same fate as others Arab fellow because a few characteristic of the administration she have. The President Bashar al Assad is famous to be called as Spoiler because he is really know how to play a peace game just like his father Hafez Al Asad that get the power from the coup. According to James H. Anderson (2011) the Asad skill and sophistication in playing the spoiler role for example in the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon while hosting terror groups in Damascus that were an axis war against Israel. Asad action can clearly where he stand when he allowing the jihadist to transit into Iraq. If Syria fall just like Libya, it will become a good news for Israel to increase their border in the middle East. (James.H.Anderson pp.83-84) Bashar Assad have background of medicine and have career of ophthalmologist and become a President at the 34 years after parliament reduced the minimum aged of becoming the President from 40 years old. Assad cunning and dirty hand of politics made partner with Iran, another actor that being label as axis of evil by President Bush in the mid crisis of September 11. The question is, will Syria survive in near future with many characteristic that not on his side and fingerprint of Syria are all over Hezbollah and other anti-Israel ?
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accused by the government
2) INTERNATIONAL INTERFERENCE AND EFFORT TO SOLVE THE CONFLICT Some American are questioning over an over to the government on why should United States borders on the things that are far away that into the world that they rarely know the existence. For example in the Iraq war United States alone had spend almost $1 Trillion US Dollar on that conflict. Just like mention in Ashley Fantz on CNN , with the interview with foreign policy analyst Joseph Holliday and Robert Zarate a geopolitical strategist in capitol hill, gave several reason on why should American care about whats is happening in Syria. Some of the important reason giving up by them is the involvement of Al-Qaeda and Global Reputation of not having a consistency in foreign policy. Flynt Leverett that are also Middle east expert mention that because its like saying we dont mind that theres a humanitarian crisis happen and people are suffering.( http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/10/world/syria-whycare/index.html ) . However one of the interesting comment response to the article is that name as crhoward999 as far as i am concern, there are no actual figure or leader or people that actually ask for help? So why do we help? . This is definitely a huge possibility of case because according to the report that were made by Nir Rosen who is Al-Jazeera reports, who spent time with the FSA in Syria, claims the majority of its members are civilians rather than defectors, who had taken up arms long before the formation of the FSA was announced. He also stated they have no central leadership. (Al Jazeera , Rosen, Nir (21 February 2012). "Q&A: Nir Rosen on Syria's armed opposition Features" ) . Therefore actually what is the main reason of United States and their allies are entering into the conflict? Does they really wanted to solve the conflict and ensure the people of Syria get the true democracy?
In my opinion one of the most acceptable reason for United States and their partners keep interfering in middle east are related with the Power Elite theory that were written by C. Wright Mills. C. Wright Mills wrote that in United States there are some classes of elite of military that are have passion towards war and they are warlord. He gave example that all of United States President and most of the congress have military background and their clicks work at the military technology company. These warlords are manipulating United States foreign policy through congress (since only congress can declare war) for the benefit of the military corporate and military Industrial complex. ( C.Wright Mills.pp.171-241 ) We can see what has C. Wright Mill discuses on how the historical of United States were closely related with military corporation and he show that most of the retired General will work at Military Corporation to get business research assignment from the government. He take example some of it were, ..General E. R Quesada, of the H- Bomb test, is a vice president of Lockhee Aircraft Corporation; General Douglas Mac Arthur, political general in Japan and Korea is now chairman of the board at the Remington Rand, General Albert C.Wedemeyer , commander of U.S forces in the China theater , is now a vice president of AVCO Corporation... And the list of the general involve it Pentagon Corps goes quite long and details. Therefore in order for them to survive, any interference toward Syria seems so much rational. Another scholar that share almost about the same argument as C.Wright Mills is Noam Chomsky that mention is not right for the United States to intervene with other nation civil conflict because it will lead to more and more conflict toward others and will increase military expenditure. The sentiment and foreign policy of United States such as Bomb iran now before it is too late is another threat that can jeopardize America in long-term security of
United
States.
"Losing"
the
World:
American
Decline
in
Perspective
(http://chomsky.info/articles/20120214.htm) 3) THE SYRIA FORECAST AND FUTURE OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION / PROLONGATION. Whether we like it or not, Syria future will definitely depends on the role of United States whether they want to interfere with bomb and aircraft or with diplomacy. The effort of negotiation has now under progress with the appointment of Kofi Annan as a facilitators of the conflict between the parties involved. According to report by BBC on 10th of April that there are no signal for peace in Syria. They reported that The Syrian government has failed to send a powerful political signal of peace,Un- Arab League envoy Kofi Annan has told the UN Security Council. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-1766771 ). Even that is the fact, Annan still believes that the peace negotiation is still alive and will be proceed. They are proved that the opposition was being supported by foreign nation. As being reported by Wiki leaks in mid-April 2011, Wiki Leaks revealed that the United States had secretly funded as
much as $6 million to a London-based opposition group Movement for Justice and Development since 2006 to operate the Barada TV satellite channel and finance other activities inside Syria. . In that case, Damascus are requesting that the foreign parties must stop funding the opposition in order the peace negotiation can took place and they will give up arms. If we look at optimistic view, the reason why the opposition needs to be funded is to ensure that the two parties that have conflict must have equal rank in order to avoid awkward process of negotiation. Therefore, the opposition needs to be funded and keep them strong. However from the pessimistic view, the funding of opposition will open up the change for them to obtain more and more weapon to revolts against Syria Arm Forces. They more fighting, the prolonged the conflict will be. Even thought Russia and China has vetoed the Security Council intervention on Syria, they support the peace negotiation process and Russia is one of the closest Syria allies. The effect of this
ceased fire can affect in so many ways. The ceased fire can expressed the true and genuine commitment towards peace, but it also can be the change of the Opposition and armed gangster the buy some time in preparing weapons and ammunition to prepare and continue the fighting and violence.
The ironically is that, in Libya and Egypt crisis, the United States do not send any of its serious diplomatic talk or negotiation effort previously. The answer seems to be obvious. In The Week article compile some of the best opinion mention that the action of Kofi Annan is somehow naive and it looks nearly impossible. The article mention that the Assad government does not really committed on building peace plan and there will be about time that the occupation of United States in Syria is relevant. Furthermore according to Neil Mac Farquhar at the New York Times, the Annan effort event it is fail might open the eyes of Russia and China not to vetoed permanent Security Council resolution on intervention towards Syria government. (12 April 2012, Is Kofi Annan's Peace Plan For Syria Naive? The Week) In my opinion the effort made by the Special envoy to Syria is not actually to ensure the crisis ended (because considering the degree of conflict are to serious) but its only the delay the conflict until the United States election of president is over. They have to delay the budget because if the budget were release in the middle of election, it will largely effect the candidate that the military corporate have choose and the voters might be not favors in their business. Kofi Annan in great power eyes as the best man to ensure that the process of delaying conflict is long enough to ensure this happen. The process of negotiation and mediation is not sometimes to ensure the conflict ended, it were also use to delay the conflict until it came for the right time to strike do more business.
CONCLUSION
Syria conflict will be ended only with the determination of United States or world police. Permanent security council action of mediation and negotiating is only a tool to delayed what is coming up for the importance of Military Industrial Complex. The argument of C.Wright Mill and
Noam Chomsky seems a very much rational in this kind of situation. The situation in Syria are too serious and only will be solve from the bomb that sponsored by Lockheed Martin and aircraft created by Boeing. The inequality of belligerents, the peace game and lack of trust between their citizens lead to escalation of more conflict. Syria will become another country that will have the same fate as Egypt and Libya. As what being mention in the Economist magazine How To set Syria Free published on 11 February 2012, The Time may come when supplying weapons to the opposition makes senseTo make the promise credible, Syria fractions opposition must unite. A contact group outside could channel money into SyriaA have carries risk, if only because the opposition is so fractious . When all the opposition in Syria is united or at least they have clear leader among them, weapon will be supply, and more product will be sold.
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REFERENCES
Fund For Peace Report 2011. Retrived at http://issuu.com/fundforpeace/docs/cr-10-97-caconflictassessmentindicators-1105c/2#download on 6th April. ROUTLEDGE TAYLOR FRANCIS GROUP. London and New York. Darryl S.L Jarvis .The Political Economy of Risk & Uncertainty: Exploring the Contribution of Frank Knight. Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. National University Of Singapore. Retrived from www.lkyspp.nus.edu.sg On 8th April 2012. Al-Jazeera: Dorothy Parvaz free after Syria detention" (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/worldmiddle-east-13435954) . BBC News. 18 May 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/worldmiddle-east-13435954. Retrieved 5 April 2012. Why Syria should matter to Americans By Ashley Fantz, CNN updated 10:07 AM EDT, Tue April 10, 2012http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/10/world/syria-why-care/index.html Rosen, Nir (21 February 2012). "Q&A: Nir Rosen on Syria's armed opposition Features" (http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/02/201221315020166516.html) . Al Jazeera. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/02/201221315020166516.html. Retrieved 22 February 2012. Greenberg, Joel (18 April 2011). "U.S. secretly backed Syrian opposition groups, cables released by WikiLeaks show" retrieved from (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-secretly-backed-syrian-opposition-groupscables-released-by-wikileaks show/2011/04/14/AF1p9hwD_story.html) on 6th April 2012. The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com /world/us-secretly-backed-syrianopposition-groups-cables-released-by-wikileaks-show/2011/04/14 /AF1p9hwD_story.html. BBC News - No 'signal of peace' from Syria Annan http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/worldmiddle-east-1766771 Is Kofi Annan's peace plan for Syria naive? - The Week http://theweek.com/article/index/226726/is-kofi-annans-peace-plan-for-syria Noam Chomsky (2012) "Losing" the World: American Decline in Perspective, Part 1 http://chomsky.info/articles/20120214.htm
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The Economist How to set Syria Free. Database: Business Source Complete. 00130613, 2/11/2012, Vol. 402, Issue 8771. http://web.ebscohost.com.eserv.uum.edu.my/ehost/detail?sid=75871e6c-df
Ian Black, Sam Jones and agencies (2012) The Guardian.Syria promises Kofi Annan it will respect ceasefire. Retrieved from http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/11/syriakofi-annan-ceasefire at 8 April 2012.
GALLERY
U.N. Arab League envoy Kofi Annan arrives by Turkish military helicopter at Antakya Airport after visiting the Yayladagi refugee camp in Antakya, Turkey, April 10, 2012. (AFP/Getty Images)
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Bashar al-Assad .http

://frankpaulgambino.com/category/bashar-al-assad/
Noam Avram Chomsky http://www.noam-
chomsky.com/
C. Wright Mills is known for his controversial critiques of both contemporary society and sociological practice, particularly in his book The Sociological Imagination (1959). He also studied power and class in the United States, as displayed in his book The Power Elite (1956).
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People Demonstration in Syria. Retrieve. http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/03/12/thetruth-of-syria-is-everyone-lying/242199-syria-conflict/
Hillary Clinton, The Secretary of State. http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/12/hillary-clinton-robert-gates-white-houseafghan-briefing.html

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Management & Resolution Of International Conflict

FARID ASWAN ISMAIL 202302