Jul 1965 - Oct 1993

Monthly Australian imports from Japan

Source: ABS 8433.0
thousands of dollars.

27418
30592
23910
25509

27418
30592
23910
25509

27003
20943
25333
17004
20249
21384
19565
21253
23041
23026
23860
22295
27286
23928
29008
18387
26340
21437
27105
30316
22101
34180
32133
29867
27710
25342
29021
28961
27995
29217
28804
27979
32920
33006
33220
37703
38679
30287
39730
32205
31998
30802
33324

27003
20943
25333
17004
20249
21384
19565
21253
23041
23026
23860
22295
27286
23928
29008
18387
26340
21437
27105
30316
22101
34180
32133
29867
27710
25342
29021
28961
27995
29217
28804
27979
32920
33006
33220
37703
38679
30287
39730
32205
31998
30802
33324

40905
37808
38598
43236
42834
44740
34983
41918
39886
31988
38448
41927
44844
44472
47571
48929
44346
48339
43879
48500
39912
50887
53891
50401
52531
59044
54300
36587
61092
60590
57143
50531
52125
50404
50268
38713
37771
43622
76892
51947
60594
70539
47899
60827
75188
54016
58675

40905
37808
38598
43236
42834
44740
34983
41918
39886
31988
38448
41927
44844
44472
47571
48929
44346
48339
43879
48500
39912
50887
53891
50401
52531
59044
54300
36587
61092
60590
57143
50531
52125
50404
50268
38713
37771
43622
76892
51947
60594
70539
47899
60827
75188
54016
58675

78072
65174
73784
74549
77458
91716
91965
60324
105841
87211
88854
98492
121904
113115
138696
143828
125827
163372
135675
109045
111746
81967
85920
98854
113218
112810
113540
124316
121351
137219
126031
121922
146690
121795
149695
134872
146562
165519
159668
181979
165070
196300
204972
152772
177387
178049
197014

78072
65174
73784
74549
77458
91716
91965
60324
105841
87211
88854
98492
121904
113115
138696
143828
125827
163372
135675
109045
111746
81967
85920
98854
113218
112810
113540
124316
121351
137219
126031
121922
146690
121795
149695
134872
146562
165519
159668
181979
165070
196300
204972
152772
177387
178049
197014

188348
173982
184446
187267
183766
176065
175365
188566
140012
167156
143348
189439
182139
185964
193248
227234
214183
206294
258372
232309
169525
210104
169559
198897
160296
190960
191847
183544
219075
161688
228335
221298
167991
257647
230014
197181
214386
214505
230727
245417
258265
284005
321274
265418
310891
382344
303195

188348
173982
184446
187267
183766
176065
175365
188566
140012
167156
143348
189439
182139
185964
193248
227234
214183
206294
258372
232309
169525
210104
169559
198897
160296
190960
191847
183544
219075
161688
228335
221298
167991
257647
230014
197181
214386
214505
230727
245417
258265
284005
321274
265418
310891
382344
303195

355551
313744
343600
315420
365349
353349
338449
351661
412065
326009
349156
332799
477186
334576
470887
415610
407495
380644
471066
428948
433759
290394
297557
300496
366013
359488
361559
413015
492792
458631
408515
445952
468563
370503
431432
406605
438078
384882
553442
506836
560370
519189
458543
620742
521693
436935
534253

355551
313744
343600
315420
365349
353349
338449
351661
412065
326009
349156
332799
477186
334576
470887
415610
407495
380644
471066
428948
433759
290394
297557
300496
366013
359488
361559
413015
492792
458631
408515
445952
468563
370503
431432
406605
438078
384882
553442
506836
560370
519189
458543
620742
521693
436935
534253

491395
491395
624499
624499
537128
537128
680066
680066
582908
582908
763389
763389
655079
655079
631641
631641
783934
783934
660866
660866
756536
756536
741444
741444
657000
657000
628369
628369
693027
693027
625136
625136
650768
650768
747126
747126
694458
694458
738350
738350
705528
705528
501249
501249
599747
599747
629710
629710
624525
624525
652949
652949
590177
590177
531311
531311
729379
729379
718268
718268
547579
547579
622058
622058
665272
665272
661735
661735
621014
621014
574889
574889
677734
677734
717075
717075
653612
653612
690697
690697
665864
665864
830701
830701
789303 0 789303 0
617808
617808
805775
805775
909449
909449
599973
599973

955874
799494
876097
823300
900079
860754
923882
1121084
741757
966066
901978
648659
852732
706036
835792
722489
714262
739459
816834
743082
683375
1006000
866000
644000
703000
699000
713000
688000
672000
600000
847000
697000
687000
973000
796000
658000
709000
798000
820000
776000
699000
828433
942131
792916
864942
982689
948143

955874
799494
876097
823300
900079
860754
923882
1121084
741757
966066
901978
648659
852732
706036
835792
722489
714262
739459
816834
743082
683375
1006000
866000
644000
703000
699000
713000
688000
672000
600000
847000
697000
687000
973000
796000
658000
709000
798000
820000
776000
699000
828433
942131
792916
864942
982689
948143

874863
735794
854605
1284216
961585
818379
1079498
1095091
1008925
967118
1127715

874863
735794
854605
1284216
961585
818379
1079498

Industrial production, U.S., 1860-1970, annual Source: Hipel and Mcleod (1994).
0.9
0.9
0.9
1
1
1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.8
3
3
2.9
2.9
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.5
4.8
4.3
4.2
4.9
4.6
4.9
5.6
6.1
6.3
7.1
7.9
8.1
7.8
9.2

0.9
0.9
0.9
1
1
1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.8
3
3
2.9
2.9
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.5
4.8
4.3
4.2
4.9
4.6
4.9
5.6
6.1
6.3
7.1
7.9
8.1
7.8
9.2

9.8
10
8.5
10
10.6
10.2
11.7
12.5
11.7
13.6
16.1
16.2
16
14.1
14.8
11.4
14.5
17.3
16.2
17.8
18.9
18.9
19.6
21.8
18.1
15
11.7
13.8
15.1
17.4
20.6
22.5
17.8
21.8
25.5
31.8
36.6
44.7
48.3
41.3
35.2
39.4
41
38.8
44.9
48.7
50.6

9.8
10
8.5
10
10.6
10.2
11.7
12.5
11.7
13.6
16.1
16.2
16
14.1
14.8
11.4
14.5
17.3
16.2
17.8
18.9
18.9
19.6
21.8
18.1
15
11.7
13.8
15.1
17.4
20.6
22.5
17.8
21.8
25.5
31.8
36.6
44.7
48.3
41.3
35.2
39.4
41
38.8
44.9
48.7
50.6

54.8
51.8
58.4
61
61.8
57.8
64.7
66.2
66.6
72.1
76.5
81.8
89.2
98
100
105.8
110.7
106.7

54.8
51.8
58.4
61
61.8
57.8
64.7
66.2
66.6
72.1
76.5
81.8
89.2
98

IMPLICIT PRICE INDEX 1890-1974, U.S.

24.858
24.501
23.675
24
22.54
22.204
21.697
21.759
22.449
23.262
24.317
24.154
24.971
25.22
25.53
26.064
26.698
27.839
27.645
28.596
29.392
29.058
30.261
30.137
30.732
32.129
35.964
44.675
50.329
57.377
65.357
54.46
50.068
51.296
51.178
51.895
51.053
50
50.812
50.639
49.264
44.773
40.222
39.293
42.191
42.596

24.858
24.501
23.675
24
22.54
22.204
21.697
21.759
22.449
23.262
24.317
24.154
24.971
25.22
25.53
26.064
26.698
27.839
27.645
28.596
29.392
29.058
30.261
30.137
30.732
32.129
35.964
44.675
50.329
57.377
65.357
54.46
50.068
51.296
51.178
51.895
51.053
50
50.812
50.639
49.264
44.773
40.222
39.293
42.191
42.596
42.746

42.746
44.488
43.909
43.219
43.882
47.213
53.022
56.838
58.151
59.657
66.699
74.637
79.58
79.142
80.158
85.655
87.446
88.324
89.631
90.868
93.97
97.481
100
101.64
103.28
104.61
105.76
107.17
108.83
110.86
113.95
117.58
122.3
128.21
135.24
141.35
146.12
154.3
170.17

44.488
43.909
43.219
43.882
47.213
53.022
56.838
58.151
59.657
66.699
74.637
79.58
79.142
80.158
85.655
87.446
88.324
89.631
90.868
93.97
97.481
100
101.64
103.28
104.61
105.76
107.17
108.83
110.86
113.95
117.58
122.3
128.21
135.24

2601.687
2744.342
52794.43
55689.25

forecast actual
141.35
2601.687
146.12
2744.342
154.3
52794.43
170.17
55689.25

forecast error
-2460.337
-2598.222
-52640.13
-55519.08

18.11
21.07
15.77
24.17
14.71
22.54
25.79
16.94
12.99
24.68
25.22
19.81
20.89
14.4
15.21
16.08
21.57
18.13
24.18
15.26
7.64
18.64
11.99
4.85
12.63
14.93
14.77
14.11
10.88
9.33
22
18.24
14.04
16.03
14.5
10.79
17.32
15.88
18.01
13.3
12.2
22.06
10.74
7.57
8.57
10.67
23.04

18.11
21.07
15.77
24.17
14.71
22.54
25.79
16.94
12.99
24.68
25.22
19.81
20.89
14.4
15.21
16.08
21.57
18.13
24.18
15.26
7.64
18.64
11.99
4.85
12.63
14.93
14.77
14.11
10.88
9.33
22
18.24
14.04
16.03
14.5
10.79
17.32
15.88
18.01
13.3
12.2
22.06
10.74
7.57
8.57
10.67
23.04

Annual Flows, Colorado River Lees Ferry. 1911 1972 (McMahon and Mein,pp.3

16.19
8.68
10.82
11.61
17.81
1.66
3.98
14.3
9.57
9.32
10.73
11.06
9.92
11.39
11.52

16.19
8.68
10.82
11.61
17.81
1.66
3.98
14.3
9.57
9.32
10.73

 1972 (McMahon and Mein,pp.351-352) acolo.dat

266
145.9
183.1
119.3
180.3
168.5
231.8
224.5
192.8
122.9
336.5
185.9
194.3
149.5
210.1
273.3
191.4
287
226
303.6
289.9
421.6
264.5
342.3
339.7
440.4
315.9
439.3
401.3
437.4
575.5
407.6
682
475.3
581.3
646.9

266
145.9
183.1
119.3
180.3
168.5
231.8
224.5
192.8
122.9
336.5
185.9
194.3
149.5
210.1
273.3
191.4
287
226
303.6
289.9
421.6
264.5
342.3
339.7
440.4
315.9
439.3
401.3
437.4
575.5
407.6

Sales of shampoo over a three year period. Source: Makridakis, Wheelw

eriod. Source: Makridakis, Wheelwright and Hyndman (1998),, shampoo.dat

76378
71947
33873
96428
105084
95741
110647
100331
94133
103055
90595
101457
76889
81291
91643
96228
102736
100264
103491
97027
95240
91680
101259
109564
76892
85773
95210
93771
98202
97906
100306
94089
102680
77919
93561
117062
81225
88357
106175
91922
104114
109959
97880
105386
96479
97580
109490

Monthly total number of pigs slaughtered in Victoria. Jan 1980 Augus

110191
90974
98981
107188
94177
115097
113696
114532
120110
93607
110925
103312
120184
103069
103351
111331
106161
111590
99447
101987
85333
86970
100561
89543
89265
82719
79498
74846
73819
77029
78446
86978
75878
69571
75722
64182
77357
63292
59380
78332
72381
55971
69750
85472
70133
79125
85805

81778
86852
69069
79556
88174
66698
72258
73445
76131
86082
75443
73969
78139
78646
66269
73776
80034
70694
81823
75640
75540
82229
75345
77034
78589
79769
75982
78074
77588
84100
97966
89051
93503
84747
74531
91900
81635
89797
81022
78265
77271
85043
95418
79568
103283
95770
91297

101244
114525
101139
93866
95171
100183
103926
102643
108387
97077
90901
90336
88732
83759
99267
73292
78943
94399
92937
90130
91055
106062
103560
104075
101783
93791
102313
82413
83534
109011
96499
102430
103002
91815
99067
110067
101599
97646
104930
88905
89936
106723
84307
114896
106749
87892
100506

tered in Victoria. Jan 1980 August 1995.Source: ABS. pigs.dat

Forecasting

Trend
Analysis

Moving
Average

124,323
124,635
124,947

130,802
129,798
128,302

Single
Double
Exp
Exp
Winters'
Smoothin Smoothin Method
g
g
103,333
103,333
103,333

11,064
110,891
111,141

109,762
111,018
104,448

Model
Naive

actual

0,92
0,93
0,94

Forecasting
Trend
Analysis

Moving
Average

107,784
109,027
110,267
111.507

135.24
135.24
135.24
135.24

Single
Double
Exp
Exp
Winters'
Smoothin Smoothin Method
g
g
138,385
138,385
138,385
138.385

139,806
142,427
145,048
147.670

107,787
109,027
110,267
111.500

Model
Naive

actual
141.35
146.12
154.3
170.17

Metode
Trend Analysis
Single exp smoothing
Moving Average
Double Exponential Smoothing
Winters' Method
Naiv

MSD

Accuracy Measures
MAD
MAPE

Metode
Trend Analysis
Moving Average

Single Exponential Sm

Double Exponential S
Winters' Method
Naiv

Forecast error
1
2
3
142,586 9.305
20.142
10.7879 2.2505
3.9820
6.87549

1.76124

3.41789
6.18375 1.50529 3.12009
1.6E-050.0026351 0.01363

Trend analysis
54.7747
55.4154
56.0561
56.6968

MA
98
98
98
98

Single exp smoothing

100.175
100.175
100.175
100.175

double exp
102.092
105.285
108.479
111.672

actual
100
105.8
110.7
106.7

forecast error
MA
10.73
10.73
10.73
10.73

Double exp
10.097
9.9061
9.7151
9.5242

winter's
9.06338
8.99339
8.61395
8.53609

actual

TA
437.38
447.093
456.805
466.517

MA
407.6
407.6
407.6
407.6

Double exp
515.026
535.465
555.904
576.343

winter's
485.884
519.505
519.76
554.504

MA
84307
84307
84307
84307

Double exp
81764.1
81995.2
82226.4
82457.6

winter's
96185.9
92332.7
95050.9
91237.6

actual

MA

11.06
9.92
11.39
11.52

114896
106749
87892
100506

0.33
-0.81
0.66
0.79

actual
682
475.3
581.3
646.9

45.2253
50.3846
54.6439
50.0032

TA
45.2253
50.3846
54.6439
50.0032

forecast error
Double exp
0.963
0.0139
1.6749
1.9958

2
7.8
12.7
8.7

-0.175
5.625
10.525
6.525

forecast error
MA
Single exp
2
0.175
7.8
5.625
12.7
10.525
8.7
6.525

-2.092
0.515
2.221
-4.972

double exp
2.092
0.515
2.221
4.972

winter's
1.99662
0.92661
2.77605
2.98391

forecast error
TA
MA
Double exp
244.62
274.4
166.974
28.207
67.7
-60.165
124.495
173.7
25.396
180.383
239.3
70.557
forecast error
MA
Double exp
winter's
30589
33131.9
18710.1
22442
24753.8
14416.3
3585
5665.6
-7158.9
16199
18048.4
9268.4

winter's
196.116
-44.205
61.54
92.396