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Copyright 2012 by David R Witt All rights reserved. No portion of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, scanning, or other except for brief quotations in critical reviews or articles, without the prior written permission of the author. About the cover This is a picture of a steel mill as it fashions rails, and beams for bridges and buildings in this country. It is a symbol of the economic high-ground this country enjoyed during its first 200 years.
In the mid-1970s there was a game called Federal Power Director. In this game the player was required to foresee and build different types of electrical generating plants that would prevent brown or blackout conditions in the United States. Building occurred at 5 year intervals for as long as possible until a blackout condition occurred, at which time the game ended. The player could choose between Hydro-electric, nuclear, coalfired, and oil fired plants, limited by economics and available resources. The goal of the game was to manage these resources and make them last 200 years to win the game. The usage figures of available resources in the game were from real reports by government and banking sources. In playing this game for many months over and over it was found that all resources would run out within a 150 years. This game made a great impression and is in part the inspiration of this book.
Since the time of that game there have been many discoveries of resources and new efficiencies in power production that have been found, but over the last two years this project has developed out of continuing concern for our future. It is hoped that the public will read and appreciate the strategic plan presented here. It will be through their efforts that a groundswell of support influences our political system to take the challenges of the future seriously.
From almost America's beginning, with the massive resources available and the type of government that supports free enterprise, this country has held the economic high ground in the world. By economic high ground it is inferred that this country is an exporter to the world, has a growing economy, and its people enjoy a general prosperity ranked very high in the world. The title of this book is restoring that economic high ground because for a variety of reasons this country no longer holds that place in the world. Many other countries now export more to this country than this country exports creating trade deficits that are growing.
Changing all of the trajectories that have created this loss of position in the world is certainly a major task. In the history of this country there have been many times when it
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If one considers the magnitude of change necessary in a project that alters the course of America in terms of economic prosperity, then the event that begins the change might be considered a Black Swan. Three characteristics inform a Black Swan event: the event must be an outlier, that is a one-time event coming out of nowhere; second, the event must have extreme impact, it must change the economics of the country permanently; and finally it must be possible to retrospectively rationalize the Black Swan event such that it seems predictable that it should have happened.
Examples of Previous challenges overcome in America can easily be found in this country's history. The Erie Canal was a major event that opened up the West and brought major advances in prosperity to America (Bernstein, 2005). The Transcontinental Railroad further opened up the West and brought civilization with it, providing markets for agriculture to the East. These events could easily be described as Black Swans that forever altered America and supported its economic high ground.
The building of the Hoover Dam was an extreme event in our countries history that created jobs, and supported agriculture, at a time when this country needed a change (Hiltz, 2010). The Interstate Highway system supported prosperity through jobs but also the future by allowing transportation of goods and services to cities large and small all over the country.
Projects such as these helped to maintain the economic high ground for this country at times of great need and sometimes peril. Take for example World War II in which the country was in great peril from the great depression as well as enemies on both sides of the world. This might be considered a Black Swan event of a second type, though certainly the manufacturing efforts required by the war restored this country to preeminence in economics as well as made the world safe through their use as tools of war.
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The Goal of this book will be to describe a Black Swan event that can be created by the public through the awakening of public awareness to the challenges facing America in the future. The book presents a possible plan to restore Americas economic high ground, and create a public agenda in Washington supporting the future. No small task, but the reader may be convinced that it is necessary, and there is a way to accomplish it.
Strategic planning is a process used to plan for the future. The ABC's of strategic planning are discovering: (a) where you are; (b) where you want to be; and (c) how to get there. There are many forms of strategic planning, but all begin with an analysis of the environment to assess the macro external and internal environments. If one studies the news outlets and research works on the economics and environment they will discover a list of serious issues that are or may be preventing America from holding the economic high-ground in the world. Creating a single event that will reverse the negative consequences of them all is a major challenge, but one that will be shown is possible if a plan such as included here can reach the public agenda of Congress (Longest, 2002).
The strategic issues facing the Nation today that gain the most attention in the media are easily identified and will be clearly recognized by all readers: Unemployment that is destroying our way of life National debt heading to collapse of Americas credit worthiness Illegal immigration that threatens our borders with terrorism Illegal drug trade that fills our prisons and threatens our safety Entitlement costs that are growing
Through further research an additional list of issues that threaten Americas future and portend even further declines in position in the world are found: Negative balance of trade that deepens our National debt
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The next step in a strategic plan is to establish an effective organizational vision. Any strategic choice considered in a plan then must address one or more of the goals of this vision. America needs three things to restore prosperity to its people and these will serve as our vision in this strategic effort: Clean Abundant Power Plentiful Fresh Water Bountiful Agricultural Products Available for Export
One must consider many alternatives that arise out of the opportunities available in the country. These are also easily available in the media and through research: Austerity Nuclear Power Infrastructure Project(s) Natural Gas Drilling Reduce entitlements Raise taxes
Review of these opportunities identifies a project that has extreme impact, has the potential to dramatically change the economic future of the country, and makes one wonder why it was not suggested previously; in short, it is a Black Swan! Additionally, it is rooted in our history of success with major infrastructural projects.
The Project The government announces the largest construction project that has ever been attempted on this continent to begin immediately with preliminary activities and training for hundreds of thousands of people. NASA, which needs a new challenge to occupy its excellent project managers, begins planning for a sea-level canal that is two miles wide and 200 feet deep that extends from the border of Mexico at the Gulf in Texas and extends along the border to San Diego California. Included in the canal are ports in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California that include marinas, docks, and ship building facilities. The canal will be Federal land and managed by the Corp of Engineers. Along the length of the canal are to be constructed identical liquid salt Thorium stage 4 nuclear reactors of 300 GigaWatts including desalination plants to produce fresh water. The reactors and desalination plants are to be built under contract with major corporations; using materials made in America. Steel, aluminum, pipe, concrete, electrical, tooling, heavy equipment, and many other entire industries will be revived immediately. Millions of jobs will be created overnight as the training will have to start immediately for
There are an enormous number of details involved in this plan. One must use imagination to realize the enormity of this project. New cities will need to be built for the workers and their families, the service and retail industries to supply the workers, and the large agricultural industry that will be generated. Think of the new highways that will connect the harbors with existing interstates, and the railroads that will connect the ports to the existing rails. New waste disposal sites, water treatment plants, grocery stores, medical centers, it goes on and on. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs, and they change over time from construction to stable industry. There should be many questions that arise from thinking about this project to restore the economic high-ground of America. Certainly this is an extreme impact, that rarely happens, and it should seem logical. It has a lot in common with other monumental projects this country has completed, and bears some resemblance to the Hoover Dam Project. But, foremost is the question of how do we pay for this? The transportation route with harbors, the power generation, and the water for agriculture all will generate income. Revenue bonds are used every day to finance infrastructure projects for everything from small water districts to toll roads, schools, airports, convention centers, and most other functions of cities, states and even the Federal government (Ulbrich, 2003). Most have some form of income to retire the
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References Bernstein, Peter (2005). Wedding of the waters. NY: WW Norton Burnett, H. Sterling (2010). Nuclear power development: Removing roadblocks, Brief Analysis No. 700. National Center for Policy Analysis. Retrieved April 20, 2010 from http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/ba700.pdf Hiltz, Michael (2010). Colossus. NY: Six Free Press Konstam, Angus (2010). Naval miscellany. NY: Metro Books Longest, BE (2002). Health policymaking in the United States, third edition. Chicago: Health Administration Press Naisbitt, John (1984). Megatrends. NY: Warner books Sorensen, Kirk (2007). Thorium-based nuclear power: The road to green, sustaninable nuclear power. Retrieved April 20,2010 from http://rickmaltese.com/thorium/sorenson2_ppt.htm Solomon, Stephen (2010). Water. NY: Harper Collins Ulbrich, Holley (2003). Public finance in theory and practice. Mason, Ohio: Thomson South-Western Williams, John Hoyt (1988). A great and shining road: The epic story of the traanscontinental railroad. NY: Times Books
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